3SOF

My guess is the entry point is now 17.58, or 17.40 to 17.60.

Should of played FRPT short at +19.00  . Im sure will get the chance again sometime soon. Its always better to short and be in the money by a good degree after a few days in the trade.

awesome news out 
last statement is important for future contracts

cheers
O.

Force Dynamics Announces $67 Million U.S. Marine Corps Contract
Wednesday February 14, 8:45 am ET

LADSON, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Force Dynamics, LLC--a joint venture between Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT - News) and General Dynamics Land Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:GD - News)--today announced it has received a $67.4 million contract award from the U.S. Marine Corps to produce 125 vehicles for its Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program.

Under this latest delivery order, Force Dynamics will produce 65 Category I and 60 Category II MRAP vehicles that will be used by all branches of the armed forces. Force Dynamics also announced it will deliver the vehicles within the next 120 days. The MRAP competitive action for the first year's estimated requirement for 4,100 vehicles has an approximate value of $2 billion.

"This is a huge development for Force Dynamics," said Force Protection COO Raymond Pollard. "This joint venture was formed precisely for this purpose: to mobilize quickly on any action item announced by the Marines as the MRAP program moves forward. With advanced proprietary vehicle designs and significant manufacturing capacity, Force Dynamics has the capability to make an immediate and strategically important impact on the war on terror while establishing itself as a leader in the U.S. defense industry. We look forward to further supporting this program as it issues future contracts."

"Our team is committed to the rapid delivery and fielding of Mine Resistant Armor Protected vehicles to the Marine Corps," said General Dynamics Land Systems' Ground Combat Systems Senior Vice President Mark Roualet. "The joint venture management team is in place; our processes are established and tested; we look forward to supporting this critical effort."

Force Protection's Cougar and Buffalo vehicles have been deployed with U.S. and Allied forces in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2003. The vehicles have withstood more than 2,000 IED and mine attacks, and are credited by soldiers with saving lives.

"These vehicles are a highly effective, proven solution to counter IEDs and other explosive threats," said Marine Corps Systems Command Captain Jeff Landis. "No other vehicle has matched those of Force Protection for troop safety in the field."

It has begun. Below is the (notional estimate from Suntrust) ramp for monthly production  of CAT 1 and CAT 2 vehicles in 2007 for MRAP. This contract increment puts them on track with 30 vehicles per month. Half way to initial production of 60 per month by September.

Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07
60        90       90        180        *Total vehicles per month.

Powerful statement.

It seems we are going to be ahead of schedule. And appears DOD is still buying every vehicle FRPT can produce.

Nineteen

"Yesterday's action was pretty rough.  I hink FRPT looks like it needs to close that gap at $16 and play with the 50MA before it will recover, despite todays more positive candle."

ScottishTrader

"Should of played FRPT short at +19.00   . Im sure will get the chance again sometime soon. Its always better to short and be in the money by a good degree after a few days in the trade."

Nullzero


Took your advice and shorted at 19 when it peaked. I do not believe battleground 18 is over yet

Nice I missed this one today. Im going to see about entering a position monday. I need to sell off some positions in other stocks to gather the funds.

Still being a long and strong bull on this. But this news shook me a lot at first.

The MRAP program was outlined for 2007 and 2008. Though funds for MRAP are locked in for 2007, the budget for 2008 just circulated congress and the president without MRAP funding budgeted.

The Marines who are coordinating MRAP for all of the services went straight back to congress and resubmitted it with a list of other equipment. Kerry made it a political issue by speaking about it.

So for 2008 we are at seeking congressional support to place it in the 2008 budget, 2008 emergency budget, or 2008 supplemental budget. The shadow gets even more negative.

Here is the required reading.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/02/2008_budget_short_on_mrap_fund.asp

http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=5311http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=5311

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=36120&printerfriendlyVers=1&

Quote from: TerryG on February 16, 2007, 08:43:56 PM
Still being a long and strong bull on this. But this news shook me a lot at first.

The MRAP program was outlined for 2007 and 2008. Though funds for MRAP are locked in for 2007, the budget for 2008 just circulated congress and the president without MRAP funding budgeted.

The Marines who are coordinating MRAP for all of the services went straight back to congress and resubmitted it with a list of other equipment. Kerry made it a political issue by speaking about it.

So for 2008 we are at seeking congressional support to place it in the 2008 budget, 2008 emergency budget, or 2008 supplemental budget. The shadow gets even more negative.

Here is the required reading.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/02/2008_budget_short_on_mrap_fund.asp

http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=5311http://blog.thedemocraticdaily.com/?p=5311

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=36120&printerfriendlyVers=1&

Hopefully the congress supports our troops and gives them the stuff they need. I am worried though that the country is getting impatient and warry of the war in Iraq. I dont think we are planned to be in the country very long after 2008.

I think they know they have reached their limit. It reminds me of the suggestion of the draft. A few congressmen mention it, then no one is willing to risk running with it. So yes they do not want to risk running from 2007 to 2008 with it.

It is a fundamental. Leadership looking for its following, and the following looking for its leadership. They must divine their meeting point and turning point.

Or it could be a business decision. That congress did not believe the MRAP proposal was defined or mature enough and needed more work before it was included. We just do not know where the proposal was stalled or stopped.

http://www.fbo.gov/spg/USA/USAMC/DAAE07/W56HZV07R0343/SynopsisP.html

THE U.S. ARMY TANK-AUTOMOTIVE AND ARMAMENTS COMMAND (TACOM-LCMC) IS PLANNING TO AWARD A SOLE SOURCE CONTRACT TO FORCE PROTECTION INDUSTRIES, INC. FOR APPROXIMATELY 180 EACH BUFFALO MINE PROTECTED CLEARANCE VEHICLES (MPCVS), TECHNICAL MANUAL UPDATES, TRAINING, INITIAL REPAIR/SPARE PARTS, AND FIELD SERVICE REPRESENTATIVE SUPPORT.     A FIRM-FIXED PRICE CONTRACT IS ANTICIPATED.

My paper FRPT short trade would of been knocked out with a 4%-5 loss. Congrats to longs holding FRPT.

A short position on this one is advisable anyway. Though volatile, its bearish phases are always trailing.

The Suntrust report rings home again.

Ground Standoff Mine Detection System
.................FRPT's Buffalo vehicle is already the sole-source system for the Mine Protected Clearance Vehicle (MPCV) in the GSTAMIDS program. ............Under the GSTAMIDS program, the Army buys 36 Buffalos per year ................

Figure 4. GSTAMIDS Funding, FY07E-FY11E (in millions)

                                 FY07E      FY08E      FY09E     FY10E     FY11E
GSTAMIDS Funding    $197.7    $272.1    $226.1    $219.9    $304.1

Source: DoD budget documents

Qualified vendor number two for the MRAP program, second in size to FRPT.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=abdcexuG.eS4&refer=uk#


BAE Systems Wins U.S. Blast-Resistant Truck Order (Update3) By Edmond LococoFeb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- BAE Systems Plc, Europe's largest defense company, won a $55.4 million order from the U.S. Marine Corps to make blast-resistant trucks as the military ramps up efforts to get the armored vehicles to troops in Iraq.

BAE will make 90 trucks under the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle program, Marine Corps spokesman Bill Johnson- Miles said in an interview today. The vehicles will be delivered within 120 days.

The Marine Corps needs new trucks which can better protect troops from mine blasts and improvised explosives in Iraq, and may buy as many as 4,100 vehicles valued at $2 billion. Nine companies, including BAE, were asked to deliver truck prototypes three weeks ago and today's award is the second given to a team which has already shown it can meet program requirements, Johnson-Miles said.

``The time constraints are weighing heavily on the Marines for this,'' said Dean Lockwood, a military vehicle market analyst at Newtown, Connecticut-based Forecast International. ``This is for here and now. They are looking for something as quickly as they can get it in the field.''

The award to London-based BAE follows yesterday's $67.4 million contract to a joint venture between Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics Corp. and Force Protection Inc., Johnson-Miles said.
``All nine of those companies are still in the running,'' Johnson-Miles said. ``There could be more orders to any of them. This is just what we've issued so far.''

Prototype Shares of BAE rose 11.25 pence, or 2.5 percent, to 454 pence in London. They climbed 12 percent last year. Ladson, South Carolina-based Force Protection fell 20 cents to $18 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. General Dynamics dropped 14 cents to $79.49 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

BAE will supply four-wheeled and six-wheeled versions of the company's RG33 family of vehicles, BAE spokesman Doug Coffey said in a phone interview.

The company spent seven months last year to build a prototype and produce the first vehicle in the series at facilities in Santa Clara, California, and Benoni, South Africa, Coffey said. The first vehicle, the six-wheel RG33L, was unveiled last October at the Association of the U.S. Army Annual Meeting and Exhibition in Washington, he said.

Other companies which received prototype awards for the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle last month include Oshkosh Truck Corp. of Oshkosh, Wisconsin; Protected Vehicles Inc. in North Charleston, South Carolina; Armor Holdings Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida; Textron Inc. in Providence, Rhode Island; General Purpose Vehicles LLC in New Haven, Michigan, and International Military and Government LLC in Warrenville, Illinois.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edmond Lococo in Boston at [email protected] . Last Updated: February 15, 2007 16:32 EST 
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Your earlier estimate may be true. The sentiment and negativity seem to be taking its toll. The NASDAQ is wary of the fundamentals.

It still responds to good news though. The announcement of the first increment of the MRAP contract sent it above resistance to a 4 week high of 21.18. So I am looking forward to two pieces of good news for the next two rallies.

Firstly a favorable quarterly report.....any day would be nice.

Secondly news of how they are going to divide the MRAP funds that are locked in for 2007. Meaning how many of all the vehicles FRPT can produce before October will the Marines buy. Meaning earnings for the next few quarters.

Quote from: nullzero on February 05, 2007, 06:40:38 PM
Also like to add that FRPT has a foward PE of 28.58 which is on the high side for this company. GD has a foward PE of 15 and is much more stable defense play with more diversification. I think FRPT is going to be a sell the news stock for the upcoming months and quarters, it may see a pop every once in a while but I believe the fundamental trend is down from here. The continued insider selling doesnt help either its telling me that Insiders think its time to get out.

Just trying to speculate on future events and what they would hold for FRPT and the market, im no pro but I dont believe the market has came to a decision and reality on how the War in Iraq will end. I believe the chances for a withdraw from Iraq in 2 years from now is very likely, and the end result will be a disaster in Iraq and a financial troubles for us after the fall out.

So we have beaten upside resistance and broke across 20. Recovery, or a price channel downward?      I think we are in for a slide until good news sparks a rally.