3SOF

With power and volume down does this stock seem "overbought"? Here's a link that references institutional investor activity that I pulled off the yahoo board:

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=xing

I believe I misinterpreted AussieTrader's post, now that I read voova99's link.

I think the truth about DKR is:

- They hold 181,837 shares of common stock;
- They have 400,000 Warrants to Purchase 400,000 shares of common stock. This means a share count rise of 400,000;
- They have 66,000,000 Convertible Bonds convertible to 6,801,364 shares of common stock; subject to 9.99% limitation. This means a share count increase of 2.94 million on conversion.

The total share count on a fully diluted basis is 29,428,978+400,000+2,939,955 =  32,768,933 shares. That means that with full conversion the market cap would then be 32,768,933*$19.56 = $640,960,329.

I see a flaw on voova99's link. The author doesn't consider the 9.99% limitation.

Anyway, the more dilution occurs, the more those 9.99% will expand in terms of number of shares. I guess all this will damp Dutton Associates EPS estimates.

Yes, perhaps instead of making $2.53 EPS in 2007, XING will make just $2.4 lol That still puts forward earnings multiple at 8.15, so the stock should at least double to reflect a market average valuation.

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 20, 2007, 07:35:33 PM
With power and volume down does this stock seem "overbought"? Here's a link that references institutional investor activity that I pulled off the yahoo board:

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=xing

Thanks for the information jmccar2. If I were you I would take "overbought" and "oversold" out of your investor words dictionary, those are terms used to fight the trend, your best friend in the market. Trends can and most of the times persist much beyond overbought or oversold levels. Nobody will ever make a big gain in a stock if he considers those technical indicators. That said, XING can have a correction, but the trend is bullish, fundamentals show a very undervalued picture, and those are the things to trust. Keep posting questions jmccar2, I'll be glad to give you my view of the matters

I'll continue holding XING.

Thanks for clearing that up for me, David. Being a newbie, I'm probably more prone to panic and misinterpretation of the trend-- I'll keep my finger off the sell button. I feel very fortunate to receive this feedback from somebody with your level of experience and insight! 

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 21, 2007, 11:28:59 AM
Thanks for clearing that up for me, David. Being a newbie, I'm probably more prone to panic and misinterpretation of the trend-- I'll keep my finger off the sell button. I feel very fortunate to receive this feedback from somebody with your level of experience and insight! 

Thanks jmccar2

I had trouble sleeping today, thinking about XING. Let me explain:

On May, 10, 2006, DKR Capital Partners had the following:



On November 13, 2006, the following:



Hey, those convertible bonds increased from 40 million to 66 million

On February 14, 2007, the following:



They sold a big chunk of their shares into the market, but it seems that when they convert and sell, there's always more to be converted.

Then, on a registration file issued on January 3, 2007, I read this:

«Common Stock Outstanding as of December 7, 2006: 29,428,978 shares*

* The outstanding number of shares assumes that there has been no exercise of any of our warrants which were issued and outstanding as of December 7, 2006.»

With full dilution, the share count will rise to 36.63 million shares issued and outstanding, and this has to be the number used to calculate EPS on a fully diluted basis. Dutton Associates, on its coverage of the stock, didn't consider this or any change in the number of shares outstanding. If Dutton had considered the fully diluted number of shares, their estimate would then be $2.03 EPS, that is, 24% less than the $2.53 number.

Assuming total conversion of warrants and convertible bonds (although, it seems there's no control from the part of shareholders over this number, since it rose from 40,000,000 to 66,000,000 with no apparent reason) and frankly I don't like the situation, the current market cap would then be 36.63 M*$19.15 = $701 M, much higher than the $400 M the Fool analyst talked about in his February 13th, 2007 article:

• Qiao Xing Universal Telephone: A Chinese Nokia in the Making?
at Motley Fool (Tue, Feb 13)

I say there's a reason why XING has remained "undervalued" for so long. The reason is the company has been and will continue to dilute shareholder's value. I think there's something hidden about convertible stuff and others, that's why they don't file form 10 with the SEC.

I attribute the current rally to three factors:

- Dutton Coverage talking about EPS of $2.53 for 2007;
- The Fool's article comparing XING with Nokia;
- Technical motives.

The first two are misleading in my opinion, and the third is derived from the first two, so, also misleading.

I have a 27.75% profit on XING and I've lost trust in the company.

The trading plan for XING is: take profits!

I won't consider buying it again, at least not until they file a proper form 10 with the SEC. Good luck to all that will continue holding

AussieTrader,
I know you are holding long term.

I am still holding Xing and very happy. It looks like it is in an upward channel with the bottom at about $18.50 and top at about $20.50.

Dave mentioned that he sold Xing today because of DKR converting warrants to stock and DILUTION to Xing. He sold today.  What do you think about that?

I like Xing and until I see a breakdown of the current upward channel - I would like to hang on....

Thanks, - brandyjoco

Great trade David and thanks for the analysis.  I sold too.  More CPNE now?

David,

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_Q/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=161190&mid=161190&tof=16&frt=2

Here is a link from the Yahoo board from usyouand, who has been a big cheerleader and poster at yahoo. He is a big bull and could be biased, but his explanation makes sense. They did just buy back part of CECT they did not own.

Please review and let me know what you think of the explanation.

Thanks

Quote from: David Randolph on February 22, 2007, 05:06:09 AM

Quote from: jmccar2 on February 21, 2007, 11:28:59 AM
Thanks for clearing that up for me, David. Being a newbie, I'm probably more prone to panic and misinterpretation of the trend-- I'll keep my finger off the sell button. I feel very fortunate to receive this feedback from somebody with your level of experience and insight! 

Thanks jmccar2

I had trouble sleeping today, thinking about XING. Let me explain:

On May, 10, 2006, DKR Capital Partners had the following:



On November 13, 2006, the following:



Hey, those convertible bonds increased from 40 million to 66 million

On February 14, 2007, the following:



They sold a big chunk of their shares into the market, but it seems that when they convert and sell, there's always more to be converted.

Then, on a registration file issued on January 3, 2007, I read this:

«Common Stock Outstanding as of December 7, 2006: 29,428,978 shares*

* The outstanding number of shares assumes that there has been no exercise of any of our warrants which were issued and outstanding as of December 7, 2006.»

With full dilution, the share count will rise to 36.63 million shares issued and outstanding, and this has to be the number used to calculate EPS on a fully diluted basis. Dutton Associates, on its coverage of the stock, didn't consider this or any change in the number of shares outstanding. If Dutton had considered the fully diluted number of shares, their estimate would then be $2.03 EPS, that is, 24% less than the $2.53 number.

Assuming total conversion of warrants and convertible bonds (although, it seems there's no control from the part of shareholders over this number, since it rose from 40,000,000 to 66,000,000 with no apparent reason) and frankly I don't like the situation, the current market cap would then be 36.63 M*$19.15 = $701 M, much higher than the $400 M the Fool analyst talked about in his February 13th, 2007 article:

• Qiao Xing Universal Telephone: A Chinese Nokia in the Making?
at Motley Fool (Tue, Feb 13)

I say there's a reason why XING has remained "undervalued" for so long. The reason is the company has been and will continue to dilute shareholder's value. I think there's something hidden about convertible stuff and others, that's why they don't file form 10 with the SEC.

I attribute the current rally to three factors:

- Dutton Coverage talking about EPS of $2.53 for 2007;
- The Fool's article comparing XING with Nokia;
- Technical motives.

The first two are misleading in my opinion, and the third is derived from the first two, so, also misleading.

I have a 27.75% profit on XING and I've lost trust in the company.

The trading plan for XING is: take profits!

I won't consider buying it again, at least not until they file a proper form 10 with the SEC. Good luck to all that will continue holding

QuoteDavid,

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_Q/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=161190&mid=161190&tof=16&frt=2

Here is a link from the Yahoo board from usyouand, who has been a big cheerleader and poster at yahoo. He is a big bull and could be biased, but his explanation makes sense. They did just buy back part of CECT they did not own.

Please review and let me know what you think of the explanation.

Thanks

Thanks for the link eggman11

Why would XING, being a strong growing cash rich company, need that convertible bond stuff to buy that additional part of CECT? My take is:

People buying now are buying due to two misleading motives, the Dutton recommendation and the Fool's article comparing XING with Nokia, because both those studies ignore this convertible bonds issue, and no doubt the issue exists.

But maybe XING is just too strong now and it will even surpass these worries of mine, I don't know, but I don't trust a Chinese company that systematically dilutes shareholder's value and doesn't file the proper SEC forms, so we can see everything there is to see about those financials and convertible stuff.

I can be wrong, and XING can still double or triple, I hope it does, I don't mind being wrong when I don't lose anything from it. I'll buy another stock today where I have more confidence.

Good luck with XING

FYI

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8O69PQ00.htm

New institutional investor, with more than 1M shares!

http://www.adr.com/adr?page=sum&formtype=1&site=ADR&ticker=xing

might be time to pick up some XING again - tagged the ascending trendline on the semi-log chart, with a wider ranging day on Friday, looks like XING has found some support at 16.60 and the 50MA.  Earnigns should be released very soon and are likely to be strong, if not stellar.  David and others have already commented on how undervalued XING is, I think we may be on the verge of the next run for this stock...

voova: is the first news somehow related to XING?

IPO CECT!!! 
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1386607/000114554907000552/h00910fv1.htm

UPDATE 1-Qiao Xing Mobile files for IPO of 16.7 mln shares
Tue Apr 17, 2007 6:42AM EDT


Stock Details
Company Profile
Analyst Research Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints[-] Text

• (Adds offering details, use of proceeds)
  
  WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Chinese mobile handset manufacturer Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co. Ltd. filed with U.S. regulators on Tuesday for an initial public offering of 16.7 million ordinary shares at an estimated price of $11 to $13 each.
  
  Qiao Xing Mobile said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it expected to receive $133.9 million in net proceeds from the IPO. It plans to use the proceeds to repay shareholder loans; make loans or capital contributions to CEC Telecom Co. Ltd., its 93.4 percent-owned subsidiary; and for general corporate purposes.
  
  Qiao Xing Mobile plans to sell 12.5 million shares, and stockholders plan to sell an additional 4.2 million, the filing said.
  
  Reuters Pictures
  
  Editors Choice: Best pictures
  from the last 24 hours.
  View Slideshow
  The company said UBS Investment Bank, CIBC World Markets, and Cowen and Co. were underwriting the IPO.
  
  Qiao Xing plans to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "QXM." (QXM.N: Quot

If 12.5 million shares of QXM are sold at $11 at the IPO (which seems a minimum amount), XING will take in $137 million and will still own approximately 56.6% of QXM which is 29 million shares ($327 million worth at $11).  XING has a $444 million marketcap today.   Seems like a buy

Further ... The numbers in the linked post seem correct.  I think that this could be an interesting stock when some publicity gets out (which it generally has not as of yet). 

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_Q/threadview?m=tm&bn=20255&tid=172462&mid=172462&tof=37&frt=2