3SOF

Thanks for posting AMKR results basonista

QuoteBut perhaps the upgrades come from the company whispering that 4th quarter results will beat expectations, we'll know about that today after the close.

Estimates are calling for 22 cents EPS on $683.75 M in revenues.

The company beat estimates for EPS, which were $0.22 and the reported numbers were $0.30. Sales were just a touch below estimates, at $683 M vs $683.75 M expected.

Full year EPS was $0.90, so the stock's trailing earnings multiple is 13.3 versus the industry average of 29.

The stock was down 3.43% in after hours trading due to guidance for the 1Q 2007:

«Business Outlook

On the basis of our customers' forecasts, we have the following expectations for the first quarter of 2007:

--  Sales down 4% to 8% from the fourth quarter of 2006

--  Gross margin of approximately 22% to 23%

--  Net income in the range of $0.13 to $0.18 per diluted share»

But, analyst's average forecast was already calling for this slowdown in Q1, since revenues were expected to come in at $638.37 and EPS average estimate for that quarter was $0.15. If we consider the midpoint of the numbers the company is giving us now, we get $642 M in revenues and EPS of $0.155, so, a bit higher than expectations.

Overall, I think the company is on track to meet or beat the $1 EPS estimate for full year 2007, so the forward earnings multiple is about 11.5.

That's too cheap, the stock should at least double from current levels.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

David, I sold my AMKR on a past rally. Would todays weakness be a good place to buy back in?


                                      tia, mitch

Quote from: anvilring on February 08, 2007, 11:47:54 AM
David, I sold my AMKR on a past rally. Would todays weakness be a good place to buy back in?


                                      tia, mitch

Absolutely. It may go down some more, I'm not sure about the short term, but in a couple of months I see the stock trading above $12. People selling today don't know what they're doing, they just read "lower guidance, sequential revenue and earnings drop" and sell, but this outcome was already priced in. After profit taking and misinformed selling, the stock will be up again.

That has been the trend, and trends usually persist.

Yesterday's decline was due to selling because of the headline saying AMKR expected a sequential 4 - 8% revenue drop and EPS of $0.13 - $0.18 for Q1 2007, below the $0.30 reported in Q4 2006.

But this was actually slightly above expectations (if we consider the midpoint of guidance), which were for a 6.6% revenue decline and EPS of $0.15 for the quarter.

Revenue Expectation = $638.67 M ------> Midpoint of guidance = $642 M
EPS expectation = $0.15 ------------------> Midpoint of guidance = $0.155

The company is on track to meet or beat the 2007 revenue and EPS estimate, and that makes it, in my opinion, about 60% undervalued.

I'll keep holding AMKR, expecting it to breakout above the $12 resistance level.

AMKR's 2006 results were the best since 2000, when the stock was trading at $65 .

For the fiscal 2007 analyst's estimates are calling for EPS of $1.01 and for fiscal 2008 of $1.25. Since AMKR closed on Friday at $11.17, the 2007 earnings multiple is 11.06 and the 2008 earnings multiple is 8.94.

This is too cheap in my opinion. The stock should at least double to the low 20's to reflect the recent change in fundamentals and prospects. Well, it has been trending higher.

I'll keep holding AMKR.

AMKR is still building its ascending triangle pattern. I believe in a month from now AMKR will be clearly trading above $12.

Please quote this message on the 13th of March if I'm wrong, because I want to know if I'm wrong.

Thanks. In the meantime, to keep on holding AMKR is the right thing to do.

AMKR is acting as planned.

AMKR is banging on the $12 door and I believe it is just a matter of time for us to get a bullish breakout above that all important resistance level.

Nothing new on AMKR as it continues to test the $12 resistance level. It is building an ascending triangle formation.

Friday was a non event for AMKR, as the stock closed practically unchanged on below average volume.

Fundamentally, the people that sold after the earnings release due to "lower guidance" were wrong and should pay the price (or at least not get the reward) as the stock breaks out above $12.

But AMKR is already a $2.11 B market cap company, so it doesn't move all that fast, one need to be patient with it. I'll be patient and I'll keep on holding AMKR.

AMKR is about to breakout above the $12 resistance level. The technical target of such breakout is ($12-$9.64)+$12 = $14.36 (doesn't mean much).

Fundamentally I believe AMKR is worth something like $30 and I'll continue holding the stock.

AMKR continues to play with the $12 resistance level on low volume. My take is it will breakout on the bullish side, due to the ascending triangle pattern and the quite attractive fundamentals.

Yes, closed at $12.07. Hopefully this will drive people to buy/cover shorts, because this stock is way too undervalued, as you can read on the rest of this thread. I'll continue holding AMKR.

David AMKR is a better pick then IMOS for the semiconductors in your opinion?

I work for a semiconductor company that utilizes Amkor for assembly of packaged microchips. Amkor has been quite responsive, precise and diligent. They compete with Ambit and ASE, all in Taiwan, I believe. Amkor builds for large volume customers, like RFMD (if you own Nokia phone or Motorola Sliver, it most likely comes with a front-end RF device from RFMD). I can see Amkor business grow a lot as, for instance, my employer can potentially have a large win at Intel in 2007 that smells millions of packaged parts built at Amkor. I just bought the stock at $12... didn't have the money earlier, unfortunately.