3SOF

QuoteI'm sorry I didn't respond on Friday to your equally kind post, but I didn't
get home from work until after the market closed.

No problem

QuoteIt took me a while to muster the courage to write the original post as none of us like to admit our mistakes, but your were so very supportive.

Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

I hope people vote on those stocks that you have, but at least the first two don't have a chance on the bull side for several months or even years in my opinion, unfortunately.

Keep up

CDY (Cardero Resource Corp.) is on fire - any rumors?

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Ok Guloso, let's check out MFI   
The chart looks awesome, nice catch, for a Portuguese lol, I'm hurting myself.

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Thanks for your nice words David. I am doing the home work. Probably it is a good stock for the Main Portfolio

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•$0.28 EPS in 2006 puts the trailing earnings multiple at 20, which seems a bit high

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I understand your point,  but the results are increasing in the last years.  In 2006 they had: EPS for Q4 was $0,13. (Q3  $0,06, Q2 $0,04; Q1  $0,05).  If the Q4 EPS wasn t irregular we could expect an EPS for 2007 at least  $0,52. If this is true we will have a PER around 10,7 which is cheaper 

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Obrigado e aparece mais vezes

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I will.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 10:52:56 AM
[
Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

Yep .. new traders need to write down the above & staple it to your forehead  
I started learning to trade just over 4 years ago, before then I had never traded a stock in my life and knew nothing about the market.  I lost 30% or more of my (small) portfolio 3 times .. and thought I had learned my lessons.  Then last year when the May 'correction' occurred, I watched myself lose over 60% of my portfolio (which had finally started reaching a reasonable size for trading).  I say 'watched myself' because I still can't believe I allowed myself to do that .. to sit like a deer in headlights watching my account sink day by day...  
Did I finally learn?  I think so.  I hope so.  I can tell my 'ego' has now taken a back seat to the cold, calculating part of my brain  
No more 'marrying' my stocks.  We do not even date.  
It's not personal (as Trump says) it's just business, and if I am wrong, I'm wrong.
I'd rather be wrong 10 times in a row & still have most of my account left to trade with!

So welcome to the club, colorado .. your dues have been paid & I hope you will not have to pay any more .. but if you do... that is normal & the only way you can truly lose is to quit trying
You are very lucky that you found David so early in your trading career.  If I had found him my first year of trading, I would probably be typing this from the deck of my yacht  

The poll is closed, the 10 most voted stocks, in the following order, were:

1 - ETLT.OB
2 - IEAM.OB
3 - ASTI
4 - ARRS
5 - COR
6 - SGTL
7 - EXM
8 - WWAG.OB
9 - INNO
10 - BTJ

(in the case of a draw I pick the last stocks in a random way)

I'll spend the next 5 hours writing analysis on these stocks (Ramsburg is still working on solutions for the videos to come back). I'll also keep an eye on these and other stocks, as I have available capital to buy a new 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio holding today.

In the meantime feel free to post about anything you want ...

Thanks

Thanks David.  I'll let go of at least the first two, and start fresh tomorrow.

Quote from: TraderStar on February 26, 2007, 11:21:23 AM

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 10:52:56 AM
[
Yep, you need to let go of your ego to be a successful investor. I lost all my money several times when trading futures in my early days and I feel no embarrassment at all, it was a nice learning experience

It's no shame at all to lose money when investing in stocks, everybody loses sometimes, it's your tuition fee.

I say 'watched myself' because I still can't believe I allowed myself to do that .. to sit like a deer in headlights watching my account sink day by day... 

LOL    You got that right!

Since we are land-locked, I won't join your dream of a yacht.  But I am putting 3 kids through college, so that'll have to do for right now.

TraderStar, thanks! You made my day!

The Importance of Measuring!!! 


http://www.fatpitchfinancials.com/519/hustler-lesson-importance-of-measuring/

1. Introduction

I already wrote several analysis on ETLT.OB, as it is currently one of the two 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio holdings. You can find links to those analysis on our Stocks Covered List, under "E".

The stock hasn't been on fire since I bought it at $0.80, as it is digesting the previous bull run. But let me take a fresh new look at it.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart



As we can see on the medium term chart above, ETLT's trend is now bullish, as the stock broke out above the important $0.79 resistance level. Of course, it has been retesting that resistance area (now support) for some time now, but the trend, our best friend in the market, is on the bulls side.

2.2. Short term chart



Over the short term the stock seems to be going trough a perfectly natural correction to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The chart tells me to expect a bull run towards ($0.97-$0.75)+$0.97 = $1.19 when the bull trend resumes.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

Market cap is $33.3 M. An agricultural genetics and bio-pharmaceutical company operating in China and focused on the development and application of advanced animal husbandry and pharmaceutical techniques to produce improved and novel food & pharmaceutical products (http://www.eternaltechs.com/)

3.2. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet is very strong, as they have $14.89 M in cash and $25.26 M as marketable securities (auditors raised some doubts on this). Total liabilities are only $3.16 M. The book value is $53.34 M, so the Price to Book Value is 0.62.

3.3. Revenues

Revenues were $0 in 2001, $12 M in 2002, $15 M in 2003, $16 M in 2004, $23 M in 2005 and about $29 M expected for 2006, so you can see there's revenue growth.

3.4. Earnings

The company has been profitable since 2002, and had EPS of 10 cents for the first 9 months of 2006, so I expect something between $0.12 and $0.15 EPS for the full year of 2006. This will put the trailing earnings multiple at about 6, which is too cheap.

4. General Overview

I see ETLT.OB as a profitable and growing company with an extremely strong balance sheet. I believe it should be trading at least 12 times earnings, not 6 times earnings. The chart says the market agrees with me, but it will take its time to reflect the attractiveness of the fundamentals.

I don't know for how long I'll keep holding ETLT.OB, but I need to be patient and let the stock work through this correction phase, because when the uptrend resumes it will be very fast.

5. Rating

Positive.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List. This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ. To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 seconds registration process.

Dave, whats your take on CPNE falling so much today. Do you see 2.35 as next support?

Quote from: mbaugh on February 26, 2007, 12:49:56 PM
Dave, whats your take on CPNE falling so much today. Do you see 2.35 as next support?

Probably the institutions that bought those 4.8 million shares at $1.90 are shorting some shares to hedge their bet. Hedge funds usually do this, they prefer a 10% profit for sure than a 100% profit with risk.

Fundamentally I see the current price as a buying opportunity, I don't see many people interested in selling below the $2.30 - $2.40 area.

Longer term you know I love the stock.

1. Introduction

I remember covering IEAM.OB about a year ago or so, and I remember I was positive on the stock. It seems something happened in December 2006 and there was a big sell off. We'll see about that in a minute.

2. Technical analysis
2.1. Long term chart



I don't know what to think of this IEAM.OB chart. I guess it is technically neutral, as the stock is trading between the 50 days and the 200 days SMA. It suggests sideways action going forward.

2.2. Short term chart



Over the short term, IEAM.OB took almost 3 months to recover from that three days sell off. I'm very interested to know what happened back then, maybe I can learn something

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

The market cap is $78 M. Industrial Enterprises of America, Inc., a holding company, engages in the marketing and distribution of automotive aftermarket chemicals and additives in the United States. Its distribution markets include retail, wholesale, value chains, and private labeling. The company also engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of automotive chemicals and additives, including engine oils, transmission oils, antifreezes, washer solvents, brake fluids, and gasoline additives. In addition, it manufactures and sells packaged refrigerants for the automotive and dusting markets; and manufactures liquid and aerosol products. The company is based in New York.

3.2. Share count evolution

I see a dilution problem. At the latest 10-Q out of the company says they had 4,532,831 weighted average shares outstanding in December 2005, 9,690,961 shares on average in December 2006 and 12.9 million now. This means heavy dilution

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet looks OK.

3.4. Revenues

Revenues were $46 M in 2006. The price to sales ratio is 1.7.

3.5. Earnings

The company had a profitable quarter in Q3 2006, but returned to losses in Q4 2006. It lost $1.42 per share in 2006.

3.6. Recent News

Well, the news on December 4, 2006, the first day of that ugly sell off, were quite positive:

«John Mazzuto, Chief Executive Officer of Industrial Enterprises of America, commented, ``Our first quarter results, as previously announced, are in line with guidance provided by the Company. During this, our second quarter, we anticipate a significant increase in revenues as we continue to increase our production capacity with similar gross margins. Additionally, we are happy to welcome Mr. Impellicceiri to our management team. His experience in serving as a Controller for a large public corporation will assist us as we continue to grow and expand our operations.''»

So I can only attribute the sharp decline to heavy selling and dilution from the company.

4. General Overview

I can't remember what I saw one year ago, but IEAM.OB doesn't look in good shape now. The share count is always rising and the company posted disappointing results as it is still losing money. I remember it said it was just about to move to the Nasdaq back then, but I still see it as an OTCBB traded company.

5. Rating

Negative.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List. This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ. To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 seconds registration process.

Thanks for the info David.

If I remember the sell off was because they delayed posting their results and then took a big hit to a previous quarter doing some type of upgrade to the factory.   According to the CC the recent losses were from called warrants. 

I missed the dilution factor, that is a big issue. 

I enjoyed the tip someone left about not falling in love with a stock.  That could be my problem here.  I guess I need to tell her I just want to be friends.   

Thanks again, loving the board. 

1. Introduction

ASTI is the first truly on fire stock of the day, as it is moving up by 24% as I write. Cool

2. Technical analysis
2.1. All history chart



You can see on the chart that ASTI is a very recent IPO stock. It is trading at a new all time high now, so, definitely bullish.

3. Fundamental analysis
3.1. Market Cap & Business Description

The market cap is $26.9 M. Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. commercializes copper-indium-gallium-diSelenide photovoltaic (PV) technology for the space and near-space markets. PV devices convert sunlight into the electricity needed to power instruments and communications systems. The company's target customers include traditional aerospace companies, companies in the defense and communications industries, and domestic and foreign government entities. Ascent Solar Technologies was founded in 2005 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.

3.2. Share count evolution

Well, the company is publicly traded just since August 2006, so there's not a lot of data about the share count. Many times companies dilute shareholder's value right after the IPO, so I'm not a fan of most IPO stocks.

3.3. Balance sheet analysis

The balance sheet shows plenty of cash and equivalents, since it was made right after the company's IPO.

3.4. Revenues

The company sold just $1,000 in Q3 2006.

3.5. Earnings

ASTI had net income of ($3.23 M) over the latest three quarters. Losses are growing as the company is still in the development stage.

3.6. Recent News

Probably the stock is moving today because of something the CEO said:

LITTLETON, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTI - News; BSX:AKC), a developer of state-of-the-art, thin-film photovoltaic materials and modules, today announced that its CEO, Matthew Foster, will present at the SRA Capital 3rd Annual Winter Technology Conference at 11:00 a.m. (PST) Monday, February 26, 2007. The conference is being held at the Omni Hotel, 500 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA.

4. General Overview

The stock doesn't have a message board on Yahoo and I can't find any webcast for that presentation. Anyway, I believe the company has limited potential (I don't like the sector) and since it still has no operations, I would pass this one here at almost $30 M market cap and zero sales.

It would be a shot in the dark, I don't have a clue what will happen next.

5. Rating

Neutral.

This analysis was written by David Randolph from www.3stocksonfire.org after a very brief study. He might have missed several important issues about the stock that you may add to this message board and complete the analysis. David makes 10 new analysis per trading day on www.3stocksonfire.org member's request. He already covered 250+ stocks which you can find on the Stocks Covered List. This effort is also a way to find very attractive picks for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, a very concentrated Portfolio with the objective of turning $15,000 into $150,000 using small cap momentum+value stocks. To know more please read the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio FAQ. To receive our newsletter, be able to write on the message board and vote on polls, all you need to go through is a free 10 second registration process.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 26, 2007, 01:23:18 PM
1. Introduction

I remember covering IEAM.OB about a year ago or so, and I remember I was positive on the stock. It seems something happened in December 2006 and there was a big sell off. We'll see about that in a minute.

IEAM was picked for our Portfolio in June @ $7.50, and later we sold it @ $8.45 in November just before that big sell off.... arrrg I don't keep good memories about holding this stock