3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:36:44 AM
Anyway, I understand you want time to digest and take care of the short term. I'll shut up for today, going to read some articles and study a stock I believe has the potential to be a 10 bagger (it doesn't matter if it is a bull or a bear market), but I'm not completely sure because I didn't study enough about it: SILC.

Have a nice day

David do you mean SILC is one of those 10 bagger ?? 

take a look at this CPST

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:07:03 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

These are the questions we should be trying to answer, not if the market goes up or down today. I know, partially my fault, as I look for direction.

You could assign selected posters an industry or two to "cover".  There is no way any single one of us could analyze every stock on our own.  Combined, we may be able to do so.

Here is nice list of industries and the stocks associated with them:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Say for example, I will cover the "Agricultural Chemicals" industry.

There are 30 or so stocks that are in that industry:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/112_cl_all.html

Over a weekend, I could analyze all 30 of those and find the 1 or 2 potential 10-baggers that perhaps deserve further scrutiny.

In fact, I'll do just that this weekend.

Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

We would also need a list of criteria to sort out the companies we look at. A market cap max would help a lot. Maybe market cap max of 5 Billion or 1 Billion?

Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:20:15 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

I think it is a great idea.
I am in also.

Good stuff Mr R

Now tell me would you still look at an x stock of yours ETLT.
It looks like someone wants in and there are few sellers. It appears to look bullish to me but I defer to your view.
NAV around USD1.5 and results within three weeks

I like the fish farming industry, I think it has tons of potential espically since natural fish population is declining rapidly due to over fishing.

HQSB chart looks really good, I havent reviewed its bussiness to much but anything in the fish farming industry I would say has a bullish bias to it. The only problem is the volume has died off a little as of late but we may see it come back.

QuoteDavid

The past share count evolution is a sign the management won't hesitate to issue more shares they already announced that more shares were issues, we won't know how many until the file their 20-F. There also have negative operating cash flow. (I am guessing these shares we issued to fund their expansion) any insight into this would be appreciated.

I'm not entering the JADE's case at this point (I'll do it later). I agree that the share count evolution shows the willingness or not of management to issue more shares, thus diluting shareholder's value.

My question is if that is such a big matter in the grand scale of things. Did MSFT dilute shareholder's value in the late 1980's? Did Cisco dilute shareholder's value in  1990?

I would like to know that, since MSFT is up 284 fold since its IPO in 1986 and CSCO is up 334 fold since its IPO in 1990.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

David your case for JADE is one of the reasons I like XING so much. What do you think?

Quote from: ygtrdr on March 08, 2007, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

Thanks 

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:33:49 PM

Quote from: ygtrdr on March 08, 2007, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 01:23:41 PM
Anybody know what time the jobs data comes out tomorrow?

8:30 EST

Thanks 

You're welcome.

Here is a good link for the economic calendar. 

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Hi David,

I know I have mentioned this one to you before, but please have another look at OMNI.  They are an oil services company based primarily in the gulf odf mexico and as the larger oil servces companies have reiterated recently, they don't see oil price fluctuations having a serious impact on their revenues (which are set to steadily expand) as oil companies will continue to need exploration, seismic drilling and environmental services.  I have mentioned before that they are growing rapidly through acquisitions, and I anticipate them tripling quarterly revenues this quarter when they report (most likely) next week.  They are heavily undervalued in terms of P/E and despite a degree of problems in terms of their balance sheet (largely due to these acquisitions), this is a company that is really excecuting on their business plan of growing the company to be one of the premier oil services companies in the US.

Finally, the intraday says it all - they just broke out above key resistance with massive volume and are on fire!! my thoughts is that the numbers may have begun to leak and we are seeing the beginning of a significant pre-earnings run.  Hopefully this is a bit more of what you are looking for as opposed to "XXX is on fire!!!"  

Here is what is drivig this breakout:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90

Anyway hope all is well with you, ST

David, I've been meaning to ask you about a microcap co. I am very much interested in and have been watching for some time. I know the chart looks bad now (I am more of a fundamental value hunter anyway) but I would REALLY appreciate and value your fundamental analysis and opinion on it.  THNX in advance.

AMK

American Technical Ceramics Corp. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of radio frequency/microwave/millimeter-wave ceramic capacitors, thin film products, and other passive components worldwide. It offers multilayer capacitors, single layer ceramic capacitors, and passive resistive products, as well as provides resistors, terminations, attenuators, and other customized products. The company?s products are primarily used in ultra-high frequency and microwave applications, including wireless electronics, medical electronics, semiconductor equipment, satellite equipment, and fiber optics. It sells its products primarily to the manufacturers of microwave, high frequency, and fiber optic systems, including original equipment manufacturers, and electronics manufacturing services companies and suppliers. American Technical Ceramics was founded in 1966. It was formerly known as Phase Industries, Inc. and changed its name to American Technical Ceramics Corp. in 1984. The company is headquartered in Huntington Station, New York.

The company appears to be nicely diversified within their industry. I'm going to take the lazy way out and copy a synopsis of the situation from a recent yahoo poster;

>>Something I posted on MFCaps  (Not rated)       7-Mar-07 03:32 pm     American Technical Ceramics Corp is a thinly traded (57000 average volume for 3 months) small cap (currently 113M) company. The CEO holds over 50% of the company and insider ownership is around 55%. Though there have been a few insider transactions they have been minimal even during a 50% stock price increase (.4%). The company has established sales channels in the US, Europe and Asia, with wholly owned subsidiaries in Sweden and China, and offices in Germany and Russia. They consider their products "The Engineer's Choice", I have not read any reviews on their product to back this claim however.

It looks to me like the price of the stock had a quick run up that was much to large for the news (in December they announced that they would be moving a portion of their operations offshore to Costa Rica to reduce production costs.) On that news the stock had a 50% which was defiantly too high.

At the beginning of February the company released their 2nd quarter results, operations ended December 31st 2006. In this report they announced a slowdown in revenue growth, and a decrease in second quarter earnings compared to quarter 2, 2005. As far as I could tell this slow down was explained by 3 things.

1. Cost of severance packages (remember the news of moving operations to Costa Rica that caused the stock to shoot up in price)
2. There is a seasonality slowdown that extended further than expected, however the company saw an end to this in January and notes that they have had increased sales for that month. Forward looking statements include "The company expects that sales for the remainder of the fiscal year will be strong."
3. Lower gross margin realized due to a "less favorable product sales mix."

The result of this bad quarter resulted in a 1 day 28% loss in the stock price. The stock continued to loose an additional 15% over the next few weeks. After going up a bit, the stock lost 10% on march 5th. In all the stock is down close to 60% from the high seen when the company announced the move to off shore.

I feel the severance packages are a one time expense that should be overlooked as a whole. As the company saw an extended slowdown this year, I think this is something that may need to be factored in as an expectation for future years. However as the company has seen a strong demand and increase in sales for January to make up for the seasonality issue I consider it a minor factor. I am concerned with the lower gross margins, and hope that the move of some operations to offshore will help to overcome this.




When I saw the last price drop of 10% I felt that I needed to do more digging on the company, and I have decided to increase my position in AMK next week if the price holds below 13.00 (initial position was @13.93). Though I do not believe that another good earnings report would warrant putting the stock back into the $20.00 as some have stated, I do believe that this stock should be around the $16.00 level. However on a thinly traded stock like this you can get big spikes on news. In addition, the stock is currently trading at a 12.5 price to earnings verses an industry 19.4, if they can prove with a few good quarters that they warrant a P/E to match the industry by increasing earnings at the industry 20% growth, that would put the stock around $23 at the end of 2007. However I think that $23 is more than we will actually see.

Cheers,
stevie<<