3SOF

Mrmarket using your example it would be unethical for insiders to sell out there shares until the war in Iraq is over.

Selling shares that were giving for their hard earned time and cash is different than someone shorting the company based on a chart pattern. Look, I just don't like seeing an American Company who is doing something noble and good being shorted. That is my opinion. I think if you were over in Bagdad and they gave you a choice of riding in a hummer or Cougar across town which one do you think you would choose? They same as our soldiers are begging for. Why don't you visit the emergecy room where you will see our gives legs and arms being blown off from these IED's?  Investing is more than a bad chart!

Thanks for the post.  Fundamentally speaking I think this is a good candidate for shorting because:

1) it has a history of increasing net loss http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FRPT&annual DURING WAR TIME.  What would happens once the troop pull out?  I doubt the war will last much longer (by next election at the longest as the British are already talking for a pullout) so if this company can't make money now, it definitely won't make money during peace time.

2) Very very, extremely unattractive balance sheet http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=FRPT&annual

Press Release Source: Force Protection, Inc.


Force Protection, Inc. to Release Fourth Quarter 2006 Results
Friday March 2, 5:43 pm ET


LADSON, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc. (NASDAQ:FRPT - News) today announced that it will report its fourth quarter 2006 results on Friday, March 16, 2007, after the close of markets.


About Force Protection, Inc.

Force Protection, Inc. manufactures ballistic- and mine-protected vehicles through its wholly owned subsidiary. These specialty vehicles are protected against landmines, hostile fire, and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs, commonly referred to as roadside bombs). Force Protection's mine and ballistic protection technology is among the most advanced in the world. The vehicles are manufactured outside Charleston, S.C.

For more information, go to www.forceprotection.net.

This release contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements concerning our business, future plans and objectives and the performance of our products. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that ultimately may not prove to be accurate. Actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Technical complications may arise that could prevent the prompt implementation of the strategic plan outlined above. The company cautions that these forward looking statements are further qualified by other factors including, but not limited to, those set forth in the company's Form 10-KSB filing and other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (available at http://www.sec.gov). The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any statements in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.



Contact:
At Financial Relations Board
Leslie Wolf-Creutzfeldt or Julie Tu
(843) 740-7015 x200

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Force Protection, Inc.

I bought more today

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dod-may-cut-list-armored/story.aspx?guid=%7B13646ECB%2D8395%2D4706%2D9F84%2D68592C78690A%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Another doubt clearing up.

http://www.cleveland.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/news/1173182160301100.xml&coll=2

The modified request was being finalized Monday, said administration and congressional aides. In addition to the money for increased troop strength, the White House will press for more dollars to battle the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and get mine-resistant vehicles.

The request probably will come to about $2 billion. It will be accompanied by equal reductions elsewhere in the larger request, which contained money for two next-generation Joint Strike Fighters and a V-22 tilt rotor aircraft.

new contract:

Force Protection Industries, Inc., Ladson, S.C., is being awarded a $16,260,713 firm-fixed-priced delivery order 0004 under previously awarded contract (M67854-07-D-5006) for 19 Buffalo vehicles and 19 90-day On-board Consumables Block (OCB). The Buffalo are mine-resistant, route clearance-type vehicle that is needed in convoy operations. The OCB are consumable parts which include fuses, fan belts, filters, bulbs, etc., to be packed and carried on each vehicle to cover 90 days operation. Work will be performed in Ladson, S.C., and work is expected to be completed by September 2007. Contract funds in the amount of $16,260,713 will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was not competitively procured. The Marine Corps Systems Command, Quantico, Va., is the contracting activity.

nice contract summarization from IV :
"The following is frpt_bull's info in an understandable format by using with..."

                     Cat I   Cat II  Cat III  Vehicles  Contract
FRPT Nov-07    0    200         80          280        $214.1M
FRPT Jan-07     0     15          0              15        $9.4M
FD                  65     60          0            125        $67.4M
FRPT Mar-07    0      0           19           19          $16.3M
Total FRPT      65    275        99           420        $307.2M

                           Cat I Cat II Cat III Vehicles Contract
BAE                     15     75       0       90    $55.0M
PVI                        0     60       0       60    $37.0M
OSK                   100      0       0      100    $30.6M
GD                       10     10       0       20    $11.0M
Total others       125    145       0      270  $133.6M

                       Cat I   Cat II    Cat III     Vehicles  Contract
Total total         190    420         99           690      $440.8M
FRPT Share         65    275         99           420      $307.2M
FRPT share%   34.2%  65.5%  100.0%    60.9%   69.7%


&


Force Protection, Inc. Announces Review of Financial Statements; Restatement of Previously Filed Financial Statements Will Be Made
Tuesday March 6, 6:33 pm ET

LADSON, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Force Protection, Inc. (the "Company") (FRPT) announced today that management of the Company has completed a review of its prior financial filings. In that review, the Company has discovered items which require restatement. The Company will restate the financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005. The Company did not give a timetable as to when the restatement would be completed.


The Company believes the areas requiring restatement relate to its accounting for preferred stock and warrants issued to investors. The Company has reviewed applicable Financial Accounting Standards Board Statements and Emerging Issue Task Force Statements (EITFs) including EITF 00-19, Accounting for Derivative Financial Instruments Indexed to, and Potentially Settled in, a Company's Own Stocks. As a result, the Company believes that the accounting method it applied to the warrants of its Series D Preferred Stock equity issuance did not include a complete analysis of the mandatory redeemable feature as required.

The Company believes that it will need to restate its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2005 to reflect a realized gain on derivative instruments in the range of $2 to $4 million due to changes in the "fair value" of the warrants, however, this adjustment is still an estimate and it may be higher or lower once the Company completes the final accounting and independent audit of its conclusions. The Company believes that the restatement will not materially impact its 2006 financial results. The Company's management and audit committee have discussed the subject matter giving rise to this conclusion with Jaspers + Hall, PC, its independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2005.

We have seven months of Fiscal 2007 left, with three months of production spoken for and a backlog. I think FRPT will start going back up when contracts and future contracts for the final four months of Fiscal 2007come through.

Congress did have a discussion about why the money was going to Joint Strike Fighters and not Iraq and MRAP. DOD's comment was it was to replace equipment they were wearing out prematurely in Iraq. They have since shifted the money back to Iraq and MRAP. It is currently in Congresss as an Emergency Spending bill to cover the remainder of Fiscal 2007.

So keep your fingers crossed. Budgetary approval and then the contracts for the remaining four of seven months of Fiscal 2007. Then we can look for the 2008 budget.

The Fibs suggest we may see a move to 13.50 on this pullback (which would be a pullback to the 61.8% retracement level of the most recent major move)  however, I see some support kicking in at 14.50 both horizontally, and from what could be a falling wedge developing.  FRPT really needs to put in a positive candle, or at least a doji, to give some indication that this pullback is running out of steam, and that there is at least some price support.  Even if it does rally from here, it may have some trouble getting through 16.80 resistance.

Armor Holdings, Inc. Awarded $40.7 Million Cougar Production Contract by Force Protection Industries, Inc.
PR Newswire - March 08, 2007 9:12 AM ET

Armor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AH), a leading manufacturer and distributor of military vehicles, vehicle armor systems and life safety and survivability systems serving military, law enforcement, homeland security and commercial markets, announced today the receipt of a contract from Force Protection Industries, Inc. to produce Cougar armored vehicles for delivery to the U.S. Marine Corps. The contract value is $40.7 million and includes production of vehicles and technical support. The Company advised that the award is made under an existing agreement with Force Protection that engages Armor Holdings to manufacture and assemble Cougar vehicles in support of the U.S. Marine Corps' Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program. Armor Holdings and Force Protection are continuing discussions for follow-on Cougar production should Force Protection receive additional U.S. Marine Corps MRAP orders. Work will be performed in 2007 by the Armor Holdings Aerospace & Defense Group at its facilities located in Sealy, Texas.

Robert Schiller, President of Armor Holdings, stated, "We are pleased to have this opportunity to work with Force Protection on such an important program for the U.S. Marine Corps. It is gratifying that our capabilities will contribute to early delivery in higher volumes of this proven vehicle, which is saving lives in the field today. We look forward to additional opportunities to work with Force Protection in support of the MRAP program."

Your prediction rings true ScottishTrader, done in two days. But all that downside support becoming upside resistance makes me think this is going to be a battleground to 19-20.

My FRPT predictions say FRPT will announce its vehicle production has hit their target of 100 vehicles per month. They will then set a 200 vehicle per month goal when their new production facility opens in May. They have broken ground and were laying the foundation for their new facility near their present production facility a few weeks ago. I hear it is the talk of the town.

The Fibs suggest we may see a move to 13.50 on this pullback (which would be a pullback to the 61.8% retracement level of the most recent major move)  however, I see some support kicking in at 14.50 both horizontally, and from what could be a falling wedge developing.  FRPT really needs to put in a positive candle, or at least a doji, to give some indication that this pullback is running out of steam, and that there is at least some price support.  Even if it does rally from here, it may have some trouble getting through 16.80 resistance.ScottishTrader

AP
Force Protection Gets $16.2M Marine Deal
Friday March 9, 2:34 pm ET 
Force Protection Gets $16.2 Million Marine Deal for 19 Mine-Protected Vehicles


LADSON, S.C. (AP) -- Force Protection Inc. said Friday it received a $16.2 million delivery order from the U.S. Marine Corps for an additional 19 mine-protected vehicles.
In November 2006, the manufacturer of ballistic- and mine-protected vehicles received an initial order by the Marine Corps System Command for 19 vehicles to be delivered by December 2007.

The armored vehicles were first deployed in 2003 in Iraq to detect and remove suspected explosive threats by military engineers.

On Tuesday, the company said it will refile its results for the period ended Dec. 31, 2005, to reflect changes in its accounting for preferred stock and warrants issued to investors. The company did not specify when it would refile, but expects a gain on derivative instruments in the range of $2 million to $4 million.

Shares of Force Protection gained $1.00, or 6.19%, to $17.15 to close in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

We are definitely in Bear territory for now. Trying to stay neutral but this slide is reminding me of when they thought FRPT production was maxed out waiting for Fiscal 2007 contracts. If this slides until May when the new production facility opens (50 to 100 days from now) the bears will rule here for a while. To be rescued by the new plant and Fiscal 2008 contracts.

Was the advice: Market Edge - Second Opinion: Not a short candidate. If you are long, keep. But do not add any new positions.

As of 3/5/2007: Market Edge - Second Opinion: Avoid the stock. Stock is Not a Short Sale Candidate. If you are long, close position or monitor stock closely.

Comment:

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bearish Trend.

Chart pattern indicates a Weak Downward Trend.

Relative Strength is Neutral.

Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution.

The 50 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.

The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.

Watch for resistance at 19.62


Sounds like they want us to wait on the side lines to be safe.

We definitely need to be saved. If it is under distribution, who will enter the market? And if we have a long hold for good news they are going to want a lower price not a higher price. It does make sense 100 days backward and forward to the new production plant. Being held up by trailing bulls at 50 and 100 day EMA and MACD. The trailing bulls have been able to pull off some good rallies, but that was before the NASDAQ listing

A strategic upper management change. The Street.com indicated two things. That there is competition from a company made of former FRPT called Protected Vehicles. Secondly that OSH is offering a Category I vehicle for 300K versus 500K from FRPT. I just got the damage. OSH and PV have formed a partnership and OSH is co-producing PV's Category I vehicle. So they have a very big squeeze play in Cat I vehicles. OSH and PV sounds as good as FRPT and GD/BAE. It appears GD/BAE get the best of both worlds. As FRPT takes the speculative risk for production expansion. As GD/BAE get to put their existing plants to work.

And for Cat II it is split with FRPT, BAE, and PV with a similar number of contracted vehicles. So it is not only a question of how many vehicles can they produce in the next 90 days, but also how many vehicles they can produce in the final four months, it is a horse race.

This competion got really intense, but this is war.

FRPT is going to have to answer criticism rather than give the same confident answer that FRPT will get a major portion of the MRAP contract. We know where FRPT will be in 90 days, but where will the competition be in 90 days?

la-onda, prepare for the full 100 day hold this is going to come clear hard and fast after the Emergency budget for the remainder of fiscal 2007 gets approved. The DOD has been good at handing out contracts soon after the budget gets approved.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=93403&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=966930&highlight=

The Category I vehicle proposed by Oshkosh Truck is designed by Protected Vehicles, Inc. (PVI) of North Charleston, South Carolina. Over the past year, Oshkosh and PVI have forged a relationship that takes advantage of the experience, strengths and expertise of both companies. PVI will provide Oshkosh with armored hulls outfitted with their advanced armor technology, and Oshkosh will take advantage of its production capability and engineering expertise to provide completed vehicles with the performance, reliability, and quality standards that have become synonymous with Oshkosh Truck tactical wheeled vehicles.

The vehicle, dubbed the Alpha, is a 13-ton, 4x4 armored vehicle with room for eight occupants. It has a v-shaped hull and is designed to meet or exceed all ballistic and mine protection capabilities specified under the MRAP requirement. The vehicle is also fully air-transportable, making it simpler to re-deploy once in theater. The MRAP program is expected to greatly increase the safety of Marines and soldiers in the field.

Chart update:

Agreed Terry, I think we will see a slide in FRPT, at least over the short term.  Market isn't gonna help either.  I had a read of the article, and a few things rang really true to me.  First, that the military will use whatever means it has to get as many vehicles as soon as it can once the funds are in place to do so.  So we may see more contracts to other vendors, but if FRPT's short term capacity is maxed out, don't expect any new orders for near term contracts.  This also means that the realisation that FRPT may get a lot less of the total contract will weigh heavily on the stock. 

Second, the part about PV and OSH having a price edge on FRPT rings alarm bells.  As they mentioned, the military will do whatever it can (barring compromising troops' safety) to get  the best deal it can.  FRPT might have to bend over a barrel here to  get more orders and cut into margins to remain competetive, particularly in the CAT I competition.  Their net profit margins are already stretched as it is, and everyone is waiting to see how revenues and profits stack up for this quarter. They have been profitable the last 2 quarters, but only just.  If revenue jumps but net profit lags, the stock will get a real haircut.  Current estimates are for eps of .06 on revs of $61M, 45% up on last Q, which equates to a net income of $3.18M, 5x what they earned last Q.  I'm not sure when they will be reporting, but assume it will be soon.

Technically, the stock is in a clear down channel, with lower highs and lower lows.  I see a break of $16 signalling a move to $14.  Over the medium term, I could see it pulling back to $12 before it finds support and starts  new uptrend.  Obviously, all of this is highly dependent on their numbers.  If they beat by a significant margin, which is possible given their ramp in production, we should see a nice pop.  However, it needs to be accompanied by solid eps numbers as well, as there are definitely concerns about their profitability, and I think that profit margins are going to get worse, not better, over the medium term.