3SOF

Quote from: Doc on February 24, 2007, 04:31:03 PM
Well, the first assault was repelled.
Even if the volume is thinning going down, it'd better start moving up, or else...

Keeping an eye on it.

Doc,

Right.  4.00s was resistance, as you suspected. 

Unfortunately, Wednesday morning's 4.07 opening was yet another "Gap To Crap" on the news about the pre-clinical study.  The high was right below the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line), which was at 4.085. 

The 13 RSI also failed at Bearish Synchronicity with its shadow, the 21 RSI, and issued a sell at 3.89 on Thursday, which is in effect unless/until 4.08 gets printed.

NVAX looks very weak here.   The 3.67 - 3.68 "possible" Double Bottom is important support.  2.84 still in IN PLAY from the December breakdown.  If 3.67 -3.68 gets taken out, 2.65 will be IN PLAY.

Math:

4.71 - January 16 high, and  pivot for the "W"-Bottom

3.68 - the more conservative of the 3.67 - 3.68 lows

4.71 - 3.68 = 1.03 points

3.68 - 1.03 = Target: 2.65





 

You're right, if it breaks down, that's the target.
Let's not look up and forget that it may come down.

Quote from: Doc on February 25, 2007, 02:00:41 PM
You're right, if it breaks down, that's the target.
Let's not look up and forget that it may come down.

Doc,

Well, it broke down.  I guess all of those "Gaps To Crap" on good news were clues, huh?

2.84 still is IN PLAY, and now 2.65 also is IN PLAY on the break of 3.67-3.68.

More often than not, I put these breakdowns on the back burner, and forget to watch them, so let's try to keep an eye on it if it goes below 3.00.

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 28, 2007, 06:51:46 AM

Well, it broke down.  I guess all of those "Gaps To Crap" on good news were clues, huh?

2.84 still is IN PLAY, and now 2.65 also is IN PLAY on the break of 3.67-3.68.

More often than not, I put these breakdowns on the back burner, and forget to watch them, so let's try to keep an eye on it if it goes below 3.00.

You're right,  those open gaps that fell back were clues.  I'll keep it mind next time they happen.

Before the targets are made, a retest of the break zone is in order, don't you think?

Quote from: Doc on March 04, 2007, 03:50:10 PM
[Before the targets are made, a retest of the break zone is in order, don't you think?

Doc,

When it broke the Symmetrical Triangle at 4.55 last July, there was no re-test of the breakdown.   It tanked, and the 3.02 target MADE without much of an attempt at a rally.

Re-tests of breakdowns are fairly common, but there might not be one here, either.  Technically, NVAX did everything wrong that it could since the "Gap To Crap" to 4.71 resistance in mid-January.

It's in freefall, down 8 days in a row with no nearby support, so players might just wash it out.

Quote from: Melf Elf on March 05, 2007, 04:38:48 AM
[It's in freefall, down 8 days in a row with no nearby support, so players might just wash it out.

Down 9 days in a row.  2.84 MADE on 3½ times average 100 day volume.

2.65 still is IN PLAY, and it's still a knife-catcher.

Was thinking about playing this into the earnings on Wednesday. 


Let me know what you think.   

Hello, Melf

Well, 2,69 as low is close enough to be considered target made (3.65). You were right about the retest. I have no study on the matter but I'm under the impression that retests may be more frequent going up than going down.

It now has a defined descending channel; it's top and the area of the failed double bottom come in play around the 15th. Only a move above will show strength.

2ez, hello. I don't know if you intend to go long or short, but playing with earnings is risky, so it depends of what risk you want to take. The technicals seems to me clear and last session it went up to the middle of the channel, reversed and finished nearly at the lows of the day. Not encouraging for longs.

Looking to get back in.

any thoughts  ?

NVAX's price is below the 200 and 50(below 200) a  dead cross?

The linear regression is downtrending.
5th line (top) = 3.20
4th line =  2.91
3rd line =  2.60
2nd line =  around 2.35
1st line (low) = around 2.00

RSI(2) just crossed 80 downwards from close to 100. It is currently at around 50.

I was playing with my 7 year old son with the paint program when we decided to do some some charting.
I picked NVAX because I recently received an alert from tradefreedom giving NVAX a Diamond Bottom (I'm not familiar with this yet) Event but did not check it right away.
I went to stockcharts to download it to paint.
While my son was charting, I can't help but think that the chart is starting to look good.
I decided to check out the NVAX thread and saw my notes on the linear regression/RSI(2) that I'm still learning to use.

It looks like the signal was a preparation to buy at the nearest support which was at 2.69.
I wonder if the 3rd linear regression line (which was at 2.60) moved up to 2.69 when the price went down to 2.69.

Currently, the RSI(2) is giving a signal to sell and is close to the top linear regression line.

I wonder if this would break out above the descending/horizontal resistance (because DNDN was also close to the top linear regression line when it gapped up), a start of an ascending triangle, or would it consolidate some more?

It would be interesting to see what price action would decide to do on monday.

Any thoughts?

Bump......


10Q out after the bell today.  stock sold off all day. someone new something b4 the 10Q was reported. 

NVAX filled the gap from end of March.It closed above the 50ma and broke through the descending wedge.If volume picks up it may be in play.

Novavax Announce that Candidates
Emerge for Varicella Zoster Virus Vaccine
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) announced that several candidates have
emerged from an ongoing discovery program to create a novel vaccine
for preventing disease associated with the Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV)
in older adults. These candidates have met certain significant scientific
criteria established by the Company and are now targeted for pre-clinical
development

AP
Out of the Gate: Novavax Rises
Wednesday October 31, 10:34 am ET 
Novavax Gains Ground on Upgrade to 'Buy' As Analyst Praises Virus-Like Particle Technology


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotech drug developer Novavax Inc. rose Wednesday morning after an Oppenheimer & Co. analyst upgraded the stock, saying Novavax should report good news from its pipeline and could gain a major partnership due to its vaccine technology.


Kevin DeGeeter raised his rating to "Buy" from "Neutral," and set a price target of $6 per share. In December, he said, the company will likely report positive data from an early stage clinical trial of a vaccine designed to treat bird flu. The company may be able to win government contracts for the vaccine, he said.

The Rockville, Md., company is also developing a shingles vaccine, and DeGeeter said it will announce a new vaccine program during the fourth quarter.

Shares rose 38 cents, or 10.8 percent, to $3.90.

Novavax develops some of its drugs using virus-like particle technology. The company says VLP is used to build particles that are similar to viruses, but unable to replicate themselves. That means the patient can develop an immune response to the virus without becoming infected.

"We view Novavax as a next-generation vaccine platform company with a virus-like particle technology that offers the promise of a low-cost and more reliable approach to vaccine manufacturing," DeGeeter said.

As a result, he said, the company could enter a partnership with a large vaccine company in the next year to 18 months.



Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
Close Above the 13-day MA
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
7.28%above 13-day MA
14.00%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Analyst Upgrade to Buy
Earnings Expected on Nov 13

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $238.73 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/13/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Buy