3SOF

QuoteDavid I think there will be more dilution, because they plan on building a plant from scratch and other expenses. 22M will not be enough to keep them going until their start having positive cash flow. They don't even expect to have revenues until 2008, let alone profits. Hopefully they will be able to take on a little debt instead of issuing more shares if Norsk Hydro cosigns the loan

Here is the companies plan for capital expenses for the next year, per form 10qsb.  So it looks like the 22 mil will be enough for the next year.  They are projecting a total of 6.5 mill which gives them more wiggle room if they need it.  I don't think dilution will be a problem this year.


                                                                  Estimated         Actual
                                                  Completion    Future Capital      Capital
Development Stage                                 Milestone         Outlay          Outlay
Completion of engineering specifications         3rd QTR 2006                    $     222,000
Facility and equipment build:
Progress payments                                4th QTR 2006    $   2,000,000               -
Progress payments                                1st QTR 2007    $     800,000               -
Final payments                                   4th QTR 2007    $   3,500,000               -
Plant commissioning                              4th QTR 2007                -               -
Production readiness, qualification              1st QTR 2008    $     200,000               -
Commencement of production                       2nd QTR 2008                -               -
Total                                                            $   6,500,000   $     222,000

Quote from: pompano on March 16, 2007, 04:43:43 PM

QuoteDavid I think there will be more dilution, because they plan on building a plant from scratch and other expenses. 22M will not be enough to keep them going until their start having positive cash flow. They don't even expect to have revenues until 2008, let alone profits. Hopefully they will be able to take on a little debt instead of issuing more shares if Norsk Hydro cosigns the loan

Here is the companies plan for capital expenses for the next year, per form 10qsb.  So it looks like the 22 mil will be enough for the next year.  They are projecting a total of 6.5 mill which gives them more wiggle room if they need it.  I don't think dilution will be a problem this year.


                                                                  Estimated         Actual
                                                  Completion    Future Capital      Capital
Development Stage                                 Milestone         Outlay          Outlay
Completion of engineering specifications         3rd QTR 2006                    $     222,000
Facility and equipment build:
Progress payments                                4th QTR 2006    $   2,000,000               -
Progress payments                                1st QTR 2007    $     800,000               -
Final payments                                   4th QTR 2007    $   3,500,000               -
Plant commissioning                              4th QTR 2007                -               -
Production readiness, qualification              1st QTR 2008    $     200,000               -
Commencement of production                       2nd QTR 2008                -               -
Total                                                            $   6,500,000   $     222,000

Great Post Pompano,

It looks like they definitely have enough to cover the plant and the rest of their overhead. Do you (or anyone else) know how much revenues the plant is expected to bring in per year and the approximate gross margin of their products?

Does anyone know what advantage, if any does ASTI hold over their competitors?

Hi Guys
Have any of you looked at or gotten into XSNX?
They make  a see through solar sheet that (I think) is unrivaled.
Can you imagine what would happen if say China decided to cover their high rises with this stuff?
I'm pretty sure this one has been mentioned on the boards.
Had a huge run when oil was high.
http://www.xsunx.com/

How about STP, especially with the Olympics coming up and USU (uranium)?  Any thoughts?  Also they are established and proven companies. 

QuoteI've been watching these solar plays since the beginning of the year.  I  bought ASTI today at 8.35.  Initially I was going to wait until it dropped to about half way down the white candle around 7.50 or as David has it marked at 7.54.  So people that bought today, I wouldn't be too worried.  It very well may go down to 7.54ish tomorrow which wuuld be a good buying opportunity in my mind.

Friday's low was $7.55

QuoteA couple of other low market cap solar plays:

DLSL.ob is a profitable penny stock with a market cap of 16 million and annual revenues of 20 million.  I bought it just above a $1 a few weeks ago.

SPIR is another small market cap of 85 million.  It isn't profitable but quarterly revenues have been increasing.  I currently don't own but I did ride it up on the recent run up.

Thanks for those suggestions kslifka, DLSL.OB looks interesting

QuoteWhat is difference between ASTI technology and their competitors?

I believe the difference is Nordsk Hydro's positive evaluation of ASTI's technology to the point of buying a 23% stake, with the option of buying another 12%. I don't know how to judge different technologies, but I trust on people that do know and more importantly, put money on what they say (even if it is little money considering NHY's size).

As for comparing ASTI with its peers, I wrote that because I covered several alternative energy companies with $100 M plus market cap, also with no revenues and a lot weaker balance sheet than ASTI's. I don't have their ticker symbols here, I would have to go through the Stocks Covered List, but I'll do that for the upcoming updates.

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 16, 2007, 10:46:01 AM
DayStar (DSTI) has been desparately looking for financing so they go into large scale produciton. Could it be that Norsk will supply the $? 

Maybe, but ASTI said Norsdk has visited other companies, and if they didn't provide money for DSTI now, I don't know if they will. Good luck

Quote from: kslifka on March 16, 2007, 10:48:00 AM
DSTI and ASTI stocks have been running in tandem over the past month???

Something appears to be going on between the two.

I guess that's because they belong to the same exact industry.

QuoteHere is the companies plan for capital expenses for the next year, per form 10qsb.  So it looks like the 22 mil will be enough for the next year.  They are projecting a total of 6.5 mill which gives them more wiggle room if they need it.  I don't think dilution will be a problem this year.

Thanks pompano, great job, worth 5 points added to your rating

QuoteDo you (or anyone else) know how much revenues the plant is expected to bring in per year and the approximate gross margin of their products?

Good question eggman11 (as usual), I couldn't find information or estimates about that. Probably the company will release information about that in the near future.

Quote from: guitarman on March 17, 2007, 01:25:07 PM
Hi Guys
Have any of you looked at or gotten into XSNX?
They make  a see through solar sheet that (I think) is unrivaled.
Can you imagine what would happen if say China decided to cover their high rises with this stuff?
I'm pretty sure this one has been mentioned on the boards.
Had a huge run when oil was high.
http://www.xsunx.com/

XSNX.OB has zero revenues, $70 M market cap, lost $3.44 M in fiscal 2006, much weaker balance sheet than ASTI. Anyway, it may rally with its sector and long term prospects seem appealing.

Quote from: wisebuys on March 18, 2007, 10:24:04 PM
How about STP, especially with the Olympics coming up and USU (uranium)?  Any thoughts?  Also they are established and proven companies. 

Well, STP is a $5.25 B market cap company, and USU is a $1.3 B market cap. They both look interesting (most stocks are interesting to me), but this is ASTI's thread.

Technically ASTI came down to touch the midpoint of the big white candle and looks ready to rally to new highs this week. I'll continue holding ASTI.

from ASTI president & CEO Matthew Foster:

http://www.ascentsolar.com/pdf/AST_Public_Presentation_030107_1.pdf

David,

The new goal of 3 stocks on fire is to pick the top picks from the main portfolio. (I like the idea. Which I suggested). It looks like you picked the most speculative ones. So far, the 3 stocks on fire portfolio has the two worst performing stocks from the portfolio. What criteria do you use? Maybe it should the best 3 picks that will make money in the near term, or picks that have consolidated near certain averages. One the main reasons these picks aren't working. is because, they are both one-day wonders. I know no risk-no reward, but buying stocks the day after they went up 100%+ is an uncessary risk. The 3 stocks on fire comapnies (ASTI and CIMT) doubled in one day and has been pulling back ever since. Buying stocks after a one day double is extremely risky. I think you should go back to trying to turn $15,000 into $150,000 goal, but not set any specific timeatble.

I think there is a problem when the 2 stocks in the 3 stocks on fire portfolio, are the 2 worst performing ones, by far.

For all you 'pros'...how long did it take you before you guys started consistently making money in stocks?

Quote from: kpunarc on March 19, 2007, 11:32:39 AM
For all you 'pros'...how long did it take you before you guys started consistently making money in stocks?

What is your definition of "consistantly making money" in stocks?

Every stock I pick is not winner, but I have consistantly outprformed the market by a wide margin.

that's what i mean..."outperforming by a wide margin"

Any other solar play that is worth considering is FSLR, a good bunch of shares are owned by Walmart family.

XSNX is dog, it had last year 4 employees, hundreds of press releases and 200million caps, since then it has tamed a bit.

DSLS saw three of its board members resigning and pursuing other interests. Something not right there.

This stock reminds me of GOAM, quite similar pattern. If bullish winds flows, I bet u will see it making new 52week highs in matter of minutes.

Quote from: dcrlin on March 19, 2007, 09:07:28 AM
from ASTI president & CEO Matthew Foster:

http://www.ascentsolar.com/pdf/AST_Public_Presentation_030107_1.pdf

Thanks for the link dcrlin, very interesting

QuoteDavid,

The new goal of 3 stocks on fire is to pick the top picks from the main portfolio. (I like the idea. Which I suggested). It looks like you picked the most speculative ones. So far, the 3 stocks on fire portfolio has the two worst performing stocks from the portfolio. What criteria do you use? Maybe it should the best 3 picks that will make money in the near term, or picks that have consolidated near certain averages. One the main reasons these picks aren't working. is because, they are both one-day wonders. I know no risk-no reward, but buying stocks the day after they went up 100%+ is an uncessary risk. The 3 stocks on fire comapnies (ASTI and CIMT) doubled in one day and has been pulling back ever since. Buying stocks after a one day double is extremely risky.

It is only extremely risky if one is prone to use stop losses and stuff like that, a stock that doubles in one day shows its power to appreciate. Moreover, all multi bagger stocks start by the first bag.

Anyway, I see what you mean, and I've really picked the worst ones for the Fire Portfolio, at least from a short term trader's perspective. Let's give them some more time before jumping into conclusions.

QuoteI think you should go back to trying to turn $15,000 into $150,000 goal, but not set any specific timeatble.

Thanks for the suggestion eggman11, I'll think about it.

QuoteI think there is a problem when the 2 stocks in the 3 stocks on fire portfolio, are the 2 worst performing ones, by far.

Yep, or else they were up too much over the short term and needed a pullback. Time will tell.

Quote from: kpunarc on March 19, 2007, 11:32:39 AM
For all you 'pros'...how long did it take you before you guys started consistently making money in stocks?

5 years.

Quote from: stocky on March 20, 2007, 12:31:30 AM
Any other solar play that is worth considering is FSLR, a good bunch of shares are owned by Walmart family.

XSNX is dog, it had last year 4 employees, hundreds of press releases and 200million caps, since then it has tamed a bit.

DSLS saw three of its board members resigning and pursuing other interests. Something not right there.

Thanks stocky, FSLR is already a $3.73 B market cap company with 2006 revenues of $134 M, but it sure is the leader of the "solar plays". It is a nice case study for the sector.

Quote from: stocky on March 20, 2007, 12:33:35 AM
This stock reminds me of GOAM, quite similar pattern. If bullish winds flows, I bet u will see it making new 52week highs in matter of minutes.

Yes, the chart looks similar. I don't see ASTI's rally just dying here, at least another bull run towards $10 - $11. There are problems above $11 but we don't need to consider them for now.

I'll continue holding ASTI.

Quote from: stocky on March 20, 2007, 12:33:35 AM
This stock reminds me of GOAM, quite similar pattern. If bullish winds flows, I bet u will see it making new 52week highs in matter of minutes.

I own ASTI and hope we will be making new 52 week hous in minutes, but
GOAM has revenues and profits. ASTI has none of these, yet. Maybe one year from now they could be similar, when we get an idea of what the revenues and profits margins will be like.

Quote from: kslifka on March 16, 2007, 10:48:00 AM

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 16, 2007, 10:46:01 AM
DayStar (DSTI) has been desparately looking for financing so they go into large scale produciton. Could it be that Norsk will supply the $? 

DSTI and ASTI stocks have been running in tandem over the past month???

Something appears to be going on between the two.

How about Chinese manufacturer Trina Solar TSL looks very interesting. Analysts polled by first call expect Trina's profit to jump 73% this year to $1.66 and next year growth accelerating to 116% to $3.59.

It's interesting, I read where Germany is the fastest growing solar market in the world. About 87% of Trina's revs come from Germany.