3SOF

Glad it was happy hunting today.

My market reality and management reality picture fit is pessimistic though.

Firstly when it made its bull run past 20 to 25 it was FRPT as a sole source of the MRAP proposal fueling it. In fact FRPT management has stated their entire production and expansion plan is based on a 4800 vehicle contract proposal. That has changed. FRPT is on a short list for a share of over 6000 vehicles.

So I am pessimistic that we can make a bull run to 25 and may bounce off 20. Because it has crossed 20 twice and come straight back down twice. Ever since the NASDAQ listing the bears have weighed more heavily than the bulls.

Good news there are prospects for contracts on other than MRAP (See Attachment).

The senate passage was quite literally a boomerang. An opinion it was passed with the confidence it would be vetoed and sent back. So they passed it rather than waste time arguing now. Pessimism as after the veto it will be back to square one in the budget approval loop. Both houses and the president.

So I split the difference at 18.50. Finished selling a position at 18.50. Leaving me with one last long position in case this goes vertical again. Then I will decide how much I believe this expansion plan will pay for itself before moving back in. I really regret not bailing with the smart money at 24.

One thing that is pre-NASDAQ and post-NASDAQ. Be prepared to the wrestle bears at the end.

To me this was a normal surprise. The bulls were beaten down by the bears until there was only a trailing bull defending the lows of this stock (50 MA). The trailing bulls only choice was to let it fall to the 100 MA.

Whether the bulls are really going to run? Or is it short bears covering?

In support of my 20 to 25 price point. The target range of 25 to 31 was  before they decided to split the 4800 vehicle MRAP contract proposal. The proposal has since been increased to more than 6000.

Next good news. Remaining funded MRAP vehicle contracts to be awarded this quarter (April, May,June). And an additional 180 vehicle contract to be awarded in June or July.

Most of the rest of the good news is waiting for the 2007 Emergency Budget and 2008 Fiscal Budget approval.

Welcome to War, Business, and Politics.

Another pattern for FRPT is a rally on Friday if there is a fair reason.

Have not looked closely yet. Was there a bearish or bullish confirmation today?

Another pattern I notice is upward rallies tend to follow the Japanese Candlestick rule of three days. Whether it is in the Candlesticks?

Force Protection "buy," target price raised

Tuesday, March 20, 2007 0:37:08 AM ET
Dougherty & Company

NEW YORK, March 20 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Dougherty & Company reiterate their "buy" rating on Force Protection (ticker: FRPT). The target price has been raised from $19 to $23.

in @ 18.5$ again

(let me quote fous TTT chart  )
(http://**********.net/forum/index.php?topic=222.msg3137#new)

Thanks for the advice and opinion.

I am a new investor still doing my reading and studying. All the pointers help. Thanks again.

I have a degree in manufacturing is how I picked up this stock. Started at 2.15 and kicked myself when I saw it bounce off .50 liked I kicked myself when it hit 24.

I will spend more time looking for the signs.

Quote from: la-onda on March 31, 2007, 04:42:50 AM
in @ 18.5$ again

(let me quote fous TTT chart  )
(http://**********.net/forum/index.php?topic=222.msg3137#new)

Fridays closing Chart analysis

news update:
Force Protection Gets $6.9M Navy Deal
Tuesday April 3, 7:38 pm ET
Force Protection Gets $6.9 Million Navy Deal for MRAP Vehicles

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. Navy on Tuesday awarded a $6.9 million contract to Force Protection Inc. to begin low rate production of mine resistant ambush protected vehicles.
The company will perform the work in Ladson, S.C. through April 2008.
Shares of Force Protection fell 15 cents to $18.65 in aftermarket trading after falling 11 cents to close at $18.80 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

chart update:

The Navy? The Marines should be coordinating, but it does give them an excuse to use extra money not previously allocated to MRAP in the 2007 budget. If nothing else it is a good sign of support from the Navy, though the Congress is the one making the decision first.

I am thinking of a slide or dip before going long again. believing in Business and Politics. I shorted not believing the War and Politics argument that was going on. Still in though, just looking for a sign to go all in again.

Pre-NASDAQ last year I would believe this 100 percent. Post NASDAQ I am taking a grain of salt having little experience in predicting the NASDAQ. But here it is.


http://transport.seekingalpha.com/article/31493?source=feed

Force Protection Inc. Likely To See More Upside Following Conference Presentation
Posted on Apr 4th, 2007 with stocks: FRPT

Ant & Sons submits: In early January, we highlighted shares of Force Protection Inc. (FRPT), a protective vehicle manufacturer after the company made the move from the Over the Counter Bulletin Board to being listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The key ingredient to making such a move was the company's success story, benefiting from nearly four years of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The highlight of Force Protection's rise from obscurity came late last year when the company was awarded a $214 million from the Marine Corps Systems Command for approximately 280 mine-protected clearance vehicles.

Moving along in time, Force Protection reported fourth quarter and fiscal year results in March that included some impressive numbers. For the year ended 2006, the company's net sales totaled $196.0 million. Net income was $18.2 million or $0.39 per diluted share. In the fourth quarter alone, the company's net sales totaled $62.9 million, with net income of $17.0 million or $0.32 per diluted share during the fourth quarter of 2006. To ensure continued growth, the company recently announced it would increase its production level to more than 400 vehicles per month by the end of 2007, compared to the 50 vehicles per month that were being produced at the end of 2006. Force Protection also has invested in a building to keep up with its research and laboratory testing of its armored vehicle technology.

Although Force Protection shares have already seen a dramatic increase in price, the company could likely get a major boost ahead of its presentation at the SunTrust Robinson Humphrey 36th Annual Institutional Conference on April 10. Being a recent addition to the NASDAQ Capital Market, the company is likely still trying to attract larger institutions and further analyst coverage. If the presentation is positive, it would especially not be surprising to see an update from analysts at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey who initiated Force Protection shares with a "buy" rating earlier this year, or others who could initiate coverage and spur additional demand for the stock.

Well we are at a psychological barrier or 20. This would be the fourth or fifth run with two successes. The trailing bulls must be done by now. Who or what is going to carry the rally now?

The only good news I see is the 2007 Emergency budget which may get a positive reception after the veto. Even with a contract split I see 23 where it was 25 to 31.


MINE RESISTANT AMBUSH PROTECTED (MRAP) VEHICLE
The Committee commends the fast action of the military services in using an innovative approach to acquire the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) family of vehicles. MRAP vehicles are urgently needed in the theater of operations, and will ultimately save the lives of our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines by augmenting the current level of mine and Improvised Explosive Devises (IED) protection provided by the up-armored HMMWV. The MRAP has a new V-shaped hull, a raised chassis, and various other force protection assets.

While the Committee acknowledges the tremendous joint efforts of the services to address this urgent need, it is dismayed by the shortfall of funding requested by the Department of Defense in its supplemental request. The Committee strongly encourages the Defense Department to work with Congress to fully resource the requirements as they are further defined.

In an effort to address the shortfall, the Committee includes $1,411,000,000 for the MRAP in this recommendation, an increase of $311,000,000 above the request. When combined with appropriations provided in Title IX of the fiscal year 2007 Defense Appropriations Act, the Department will have a total of $2,071,000,000 available to purchase MRAP vehicles. Based on information provided by DoD, the Committee believes this funding amount to be sufficient to procure all MRAP vehicles that can be manufactured in fiscal year 2007, using reasonable production rate assumptions. As such, the Committee has fully funded the maximum production capacity through the end of the fiscal year for the Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contracts that are currently issued by the joint program office.

Should production capacity expand to levels beyond those assumed by the Committee recommendation, the Committee has made funds available for MRAPs in the Strategic Readiness Reserve Fund.

The funding provided in this Act is as follows:

[in thousands of dollars]
Other Procurement,

Army: 129 Ground Standoff Mine Detection System $500,000

Other Procurement,

Navy: 124 Tactical Vehicles 180,000
          124 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle Outfitting (above the request) 51,600

Procurement,

Defense-Wide: 70 EOD Systems 420,000
                         70A Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (above the request) 259,000

Terry, chart looks positive, I will continue to hold my FRPT shares

quotation from blog:
Right now FRPT is testing the overhead resistence of the February 26, 2007 gap between $19 & $19.50. If FRPT can get through this there remains two major overhead points of resistence:

- The February 21, 2007 high of $21.18
- The January 17, 2007 all time high of $24.30

So it looks like FRPT might be starting to build a base. Whether FRPT builds that base or just launches is dependent upon the news cycle which is finally working in FRPT's favor:

- The Robinson Humphrey conference is next week
- FRPT's maufacturing capacity is ramping up rapidly
- The big MRAP orders are about to be handed out
- Despite the battle over the Iraq war budget, both sides of the aisle want our troops to be protected in MRAP vehicles.

fyi  :

DoD Armored Vehicle Plan Expands, Aims At Short-Term Needs

Apr 6, 2007 07:31:30 (ET)
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Defense Department's new armored vehicle program has nearly doubled in size but is still aimed at short-term combat needs, U.S. Marine Corps officials said Thursday. Over the next 18 months, the Marines and the Army want to buy 7,774 Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected vehicles, which they expect will cost $8.4 billion. The Marines have the lead on the acquisition program, which previously had estimated a 4,000-vehicle, one-year effort. Funding looks certain, said Brig. Gen. Michael Brogan, head of Marine Corps Systems Command. He said Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., has already submitted amendments to Pentagon budget legislation, augmenting existing plans to fund the MRAP program as needed. "Given that amount of money, I won't have financial restrictions on how fast we can produce the vehicles," Brogan said. "I will need industry to deliver on the promises." The Marines will buy vehicles from any company that can meet their blastproof standards, Brogan said. Already, many companies are on contract to provide test vehicles, and some have received extra orders based on existing information. Big contracts will come soon, once the evaluations wrap up. Long-term maintenance isn't a big worry, Brogan said. In the short run, the Marines plan to hire contractors for maintenance and spare parts. If the vehicles stay in the arsenal, the Marines will work with the contractors to keep spare parts and trained mechanics on hand. Brogan said the vehicles share many common components, such as engines and suspensions.

"Fundamentally, these are trucks," Brogan said.

The MRAP vehicles could have a life span of up to 10 years if they survive their deployment, Brogan said. That means they'll phase out as the Pentagon's next-generation all-purpose vehicle phases in, Brogan said. That next project is called the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle; a contractor has not yet been selected. Companies with MRAP contracts so far include General Dynamics Corp. (GD), Force Protection Inc. (FRPT), Armor Holdings Inc. (AH), Textron Inc. (TXT), BAE Systems PLC (BAESY), Oshkosh Truck Corp. (OSK), Protected Vehicles Inc., Navistar International Corp.'s (NAVZ) International Military and Government LLC, and General Purpose Vehicles LLC. The MRAP program will face more oversight as it expands. Defense Department Under Secretary Kenneth Krieg, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer, is preparing to convert MRAP into the top tier of acquisition programs, invoking additional senior supervision.

Capacity has been one of the biggest limitations on the MRAP program. U.S. industry had little capacity for churning out heavily armored vehicles because it was considered a "boutique" item, Brogan said. One company making the sought-after vehicles has turned to outsourcing and new joint ventures to boost capacity. South Carolina-based Force Protection has new agreements with General Dynamics Corp. and Armor Holdings Inc. to help the company increase its production.
Force Protection is the sole provider in the MRAP category three, with its heavily armored Buffalo mine clearer. It also has contracts for the smaller Cougar models in categories one and two, along with the other MRAP contenders.

Added a short position at 19 and 19.39 last week, so I am in looking for it to break 20 to begin with. Watching it break and hold 18.50 reversed my position.

anyone listen to the conference today?
it was very good compared to their last one, a lot of positives i saw out of it and gobbled up 1000 shares today, i suggest giving it a listen, even mentioned buyout possibility and growth of cheetah should start in fall and be tremendous and gave 600-700 millions consensus saying that would not be arms reach, i think the street consensus is 550 mill

I listened. He did confidently confirm all the previous news. He was rightfully cautious. He did confirm he was confident because of his relationship and previous contracts with DOD. I am confident management has done all they can do for the DOD. Somewhere he has gotten assurances off the record from DOD. So he is cautious until the words are official and on the record.

The uncertainty now becomes congress passing the budget. And the DOD doing linear production planning to match funding. Ultimately how they are doing the contract split based on what FRPT and the others are doing about their production plans.

The good news that fell into line for me was the Cheetah for Category I of the MRAP. FRPT was criticised for the Category I Cougar being more expensive than PVIs Category I MRAP. I can only hope that the Cheetah will answer the price point problem against the competition.

One last point to clear up. The 7700 MRAP vehicles are for the remaining 2007 fiscal year and the 2008 fiscal year. Not the remaining 2007 calender year. So yes if the budgets go through they will have plenty of work until Fiscal 2009 in October of 2008. Welcome to government budgeting.