3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 07:19:15 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on April 02, 2007, 06:42:13 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 06:07:55 PM

My take is CIMT has the potential to end 2007 above $10 a share and I'll keep holding for as long as I believe the way ahead is up.

So numerically am I right in stating that currently this would be the pick in the Main portfolio that has the greatest potential currently for this year in your opinion? 

Absolutely, CIMT is the stock with the greatest short term potential. It is also the smallest company in the Main Portfolio, hence its ability to move a lot and fast. But, of course, risk is also higher because so far we have just one strong quarter, the jury is still out to say if this is a new positive fundamental trend or just a blip (I believe there's strong indication in favor of the first hypothesis).

Heh, that "short term potential" proved itself in less than 24 hours, lol!  Nice day for CIMT, but like you said, best not to get overly excited, so as not to get overly depressed when stocks drop.

I asked the question above because this stock reminded me of GOAM where it was clear not too many members had been on board with it initially, but at the time it appeared to have the greatest potential and indeed wound up making a great profit.  I was hoping that members would see your answer and get on board before the next huge leg up, but there should still be some pullback from here that would allow for an attractive buy point, especially when the longer term is taken into account.

Today we had the second Rising Three Methods candlestick formation in about as many weeks, and CIMT also finished near HOD with no bearish shadows left on the big up move like on the last two.  Very nice, great pick David    I honestly would not have had the guts to buy this thing up so much after it doubled in a day as you did, that is something I still have to learn (like how you saw VII go up massively and still said to buy at around $7 and it went to $10), etc.

Quote from: Terliso on March 27, 2007, 12:34:56 PM
Nice chart my fellow traders. Perfect T3ML - daily & weekly scale.

Ain't that a magic?

Quote from: Dory99 on March 27, 2007, 10:26:24 PM
Terliso,

I love your 3 magic line strategy: what indicator(s) tell you that it's time to sell a stock?

Thanks,

  Dory99

The selling part is hard to predict. All I know is, T3ML goes up fast and going down fast as well.

Example: STEC

Thanks,Terliso.

No "rule-of-thumb" on sale, e.g. 25% from high?

QuoteVery nice, great pick David   I honestly would not have had the guts to buy this thing up so much after it doubled in a day as you did, that is something I still have to learn (like how you saw VII go up massively and still said to buy at around $7 and it went to $10), etc.

Thanks Tokyo What you need to learn to be able to do that is to study the change in fundamentals. You see, a stock price might double, but what if at the same time fundamentals improved 3 fold? The stock is actually cheaper now than before

I put some variables on my new model for CIMT, and the model told me that with what we can extrapolate for the future, CIMT should only be sold at $17.75:



I don't think I'm being too aggressive on my estimates, let's see them in detail (the white parts are the things we can manipulate on the model, the yellow parts are facts):

- Dilution factor of 1, which means there won't be any dilution at all. Why? Well, there wasn't any over the past 10 years, as you can see on this 10 year summary, certainly there won't be any now that the company has turned profitable;
- Revenue CAGR of 1.2, which means a compound annual revenue growth of 20%. This is conservative, because in 2006, revenues in China grew 80% and the company is making a strong bet in that country from what we can read over the recent news;
- Net profit margin of 15% in 2009. The company already had 9.24% net profit margin in Q4 2006, and it is a software company, always keep that in mind. And we've seen previously as SG&A and R&D costs are actually down over the last few years, so the company is ready for a meaningful margin expansion. In my opinion, a good chunk of incremental sales will go directly to the bottom line;
- EPS multiple estimate of 39. This is the only point where perhaps I'm being somewhat optimistic (to compensate for being conservative on other points), but  39 is the Technical & System Software industry average EPS multiple, why shouldn't CIMT trade at the average valuation?

I'll keep holding CIMT.

Good work david 

for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon 

I could be wrong 

Nice stock

Quote from: Garoh on April 05, 2007, 11:46:47 AM
Good work david   

for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon

I could be wrong 

Nice stock

And are you selling now to try to buy it back lower Garoh? Thanks

Quote from: David Randolph on April 05, 2007, 12:06:21 PM

Quote from: Garoh on April 05, 2007, 11:46:47 AM
Good work david   

for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon

I could be wrong 

Nice stock

And are you selling now to try to buy it back lower Garoh? Thanks

Hi David

Good question 

Off cource I'm not 
I have the original  shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper 

and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....

You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks  

Dave,

unrelated topic to this link, but might get to you fast.

What do you think of IPII? The hurricane season is predicted "active" this year. This company provides building materials.

Thanks.

Quote from: sfhappyfish88 on April 05, 2007, 01:36:10 PM
Dave,

unrelated topic to this link, but might get to you fast.

What do you think of IPII? The hurricane season is predicted "active" this year. This company provides building materials.

Thanks.

I don't know IPII, but the hurricane season being "active" or "inactive" shouldn't drive your investment decisions, there are many other factors intrinsic to that specific company that probably play a more important role.

First thing to know is, what is the market cap? Just $23 M, this is interesting. Revenue in 2006? $75 M. EPS in 2006? $1.14, and the stock is trading at $9.12, so the earnings multiple is just 8. Net profit margin? 2.67%, quite low, but it might expand. Share count? About 4% average annual dilution over the last few years.

Yes, IPII looks interesting, very small cap moving up ... I'll make a more in depth look on it early next week, thanks for the tip

QuoteHi David

Good question

Off cource I'm not 
I have the original  shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper 

and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....

You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks

Thanks Garoh

You should consider putting that money you're using for day trading into another sound long term pick, day trading is stressful and takes away too much time that you probably need for your professional life or your family. And my take is you'll probably end up making more money

My latest update on CIMT says it all in terms of long term estimates and the outcome of those estimates:

- No dilution expected;
- 20% revenue CAGR;
- Net profit margin of 15%;
- Trade at the industry average EPS multiple of 39

Now we just have to monitor incoming information and adjust estimates accordingly. I'll keep holding CIMT.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 07, 2007, 05:42:11 AM

QuoteHi David

Good question

Off cource I'm not 
I have the original  shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper 

and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....

You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks

Thanks Garoh

You should consider putting that money you're using for day trading into another sound long term pick, day trading is stressful and takes away too much time that you probably need for your professional life or your family. And my take is you'll probably end up making more money

My latest update on CIMT says it all in terms of long term estimates and the outcome of those estimates:

- No dilution expected;
- 20% revenue CAGR;
- Net profit margin of 15%;
- Trade at the industry average EPS multiple of 39

Now we just have to monitor incoming information and adjust estimates accordingly. I'll keep holding CIMT.

Thanks David for the true and nice works 

You'er  right ,

In 1996 I bought Harely Davidson (HDI Old ticker ,New ticker is HOG)
I invested in this stock $4100 only I didn't had the ability to daytrade and I thought this company had big potenial to grow and I was right ... I still have this stock in my portfolio 

Do you how much are my stocks worth in 10 years  ?

$79,000 Now 

I never thought of selling this stock before but now I really think seriously to sell it because I think there would be better stock with great potenial in the market .....

And as said If I used that money for daytrading I wouldn't had this great profits which made $4100 into $79,000 in just 11 year 

I Love my family and I always think that taking care of your family is much better than do anything 

I'm really happy I found this place with nice people 

Wow, Garoh, you've got about >30% gain annualized on Harley! You've been patient.

Quote from: berloga on April 09, 2007, 12:10:26 PM
Wow, Garoh, you've got about >30% gain annualized on Harley! You've been patient.

yes , because I didn't need that money 

and as david saying I had red hot hands 

Congratulations on that great Harley investment Garoh. 31% CAGR over 10 years is terrific

I'm glad you didn't sell CIMT when you felt $3.5 was around the corner. As I've been saying, those short term fluctuations seem predictable, but they're not.

As I look to CIMT's valuation model I see even more upside. Why? Well, I'm considering just 20% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. But the company can beat that, 20% isn't all that much, considering the market the company is involved.

Anyway, given my current estimates which I believe are reasonable, CIMT shouldn't be sold below $17.75. Just buy and hold CIMT.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 09, 2007, 06:09:50 PM
Congratulations on that great Harley investment Garoh. 31% CAGR over 10 years is terrific

I'm glad you didn't sell CIMT when you felt $3.5 was around the corner. As I've been saying, those short term fluctuations seem predictable, but they're not.

As I look to CIMT's valuation model I see even more upside. Why? Well, I'm considering just 20% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. But the company can beat that, 20% isn't all that much, considering the market the company is involved.

Anyway, given my current estimates which I believe are reasonable, CIMT shouldn't be sold below $17.75. Just buy and hold CIMT.

Thanks David 

I'm getting ready to sell my lover harley davidson Bad To the Bone 

Yes David you'er right , I sold the shares I used to daytrade at $4  just to get it back cheaper but yesterday when the market opened I saw some good signs on CIMT some people want to buy as soon as possible and that forced me to jump back in the stock and buy again at $4.10 

I'm happy I got in at  the right time 

David I Bought this stock yestrday it worth it to take a close look to this nice company EGR I it has good potenial to grow more ...

It could be good for the main portfolio