3SOF

Agreed bigdogs.

I got heavily long yesterday as I see this IPO as a catalyst to XING finally realising its market value (it has been heavily undervalued for a long time)  David has raised some issues in the past about XING and its share structure, but I can only see this IPO as a positive, as XING will retain controlling interest in QXM, and will also generate cash to pay down some of its existing debt and give it a better platform for future growth. 

However, if you read the IPO statement, XING will only receive $44M from the IPO - the rest will be used by QXM for general corporate purposes and to fund capacity expansion (they are building an new manufacturing facility).  They will retain (by my calculation) 29.715M shares in QXM, which wuld have an approximate value of $356.6M , given a mid range IPO price of $12 (or your $327M if we take a $11 IPO price).  Obviously, it remains to be seen how the market reacts to this IPO, and whether QXM is percieved to be worth $630M.  If it is, then I think we should see significant upside in shares of XING.  The real issue, however, is what the other components of XING are worth.  This I haven't researched yet, and need to look into in more detail.

Still, on the technical side, we had a very nice breakout of descending resistance on big volume.  One could argue that this is a large symmetric triangle, in which case it would provide a target of $24.45.  This would give XING a market cap of $580M, which seems reasonable given the potential value of QXM.  I hope that the $18 gap resistance now becomes support, and it was good to see XING close over that "gap to crap" opening at 18.32 in March.  I think that we should see XING in the $19 range very shortly, and hopefully above $20 in the next month.

For 2005, the prospectus says that CECT had RMB1,864,125.000 in gross revenues (at 8.18 RMB to the dollar) which equals $152,485,000.  XING's financials show $356 million in total revenue for the same period.  I am not sure who does what or the profitability of the remaining revenue – XING is a hard company on which to do good due diligence – but it seems that XING has a real and substantial business beyond what is being spun out and that business has some value.   I am not a technician, but with many guesses and assumptions, I had decided that mid-20s seemed the next likely valuation point - glad to hear you say that the technicals look similar....

big dog: XING has two major cell phone producing subsidiaries CECT and COSUN..
Here are some details about IPO, including quite informative (but very long) presentation:
http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=QXM

IPO will be in the week starting April 30th. I hope they come up with some kind of PR to promote it.

hmmm... XING is getting creamed pre-market... looks like the market overall is reacting heavily to breaking new highs yesterday.  I also noticed, that our calculations on XING's market cap are way out.  They actually have 29M shares outstanding, and that is without any excercising of outstanding warrants:

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001035704%2D07%2D000003%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2007%5C01%5C03%5C&CoName=QIAO+XING+UNIVERSAL+TELEPHONE+INC&FormType=424B3&RcvdDate=1%2F3%2F2007&pdf=

They sure have been issuing a lot of shares, and because there isn't a lot of transparency, it is hard to keep up with these things.  That puts the market cap right now at more like $520M.  Fully diluted it could be a lot more.  I have to think about how this may influence the overall value of XING, and reconsider things here slightly.

I think it's more the reaction to 4% drop in China index... DKR will convert its warrants into CECT stock and not XING that I think is a good news...

XING subsidiary QXM (Qiao Xing Mobile) lists on the NYSE today, aiming to price at $11-13/sh.  Expect reactionary fireworks  in XING today as well, as its value is closely tied to the percieved value of QXM.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070419/cnth031.html?.v=1

If the QXM IPO goes well today, we should see fireworks for XING.  However, if QXM slides, XING could breakdown badly.  Currently support stands at 15.70, resistance looks to come in at $17.30-40, $18 and $18.75

Thanks for the heads up ScottishTrader. This one will be interesting to follow.

so at current prices CECT has a market cap around $650mil. and XING aprox.$470 mil... does not make any sense to me. This discrepancy will, I hope, be corrected in the near future.. XING should have a higher market cap than CECT as it also has COSUN division.. I am staying with XING...

wow. I certainly did not expect such a disaster after CECT IPO....  . I wonder if it's just because of their lack of transparency or whether there will be another unpleasant surprise once they finally release earnings....

Nothing is wrong with a company

http://whampoafn.net/2007/05/04/a-tale-of-two-ipos-acorn-soars-qiao-xing-mobile-dives.aspx

Well, the QXM IPO wasn't taken well by the market, and as they say, when the chart speaks, it pays to listen.  I was on the wrong side of this trade, looking for a solid pop from the QXM IPO, but have since cleared out my position in XING.

I think it is possible that XING could find suppport around 13.88, which has previously acted as support/resistance, but for now the chart looks pretty broken.  It could take some time for the chart to build a base and correct, (but it could also make a sharp reversal, its hard to say) so for now I'll just keep XING and QXM on watch. 

Seems like XINGs PR finally decided to give us some info. They provided details about 2006 and Q12007 earnings. Should be out in mid june. They also claim that COSUN is doing very well.
I bought a lot on Friday around MA200 that proved to be a good support on several occasions.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070507/lnm506.html?.v=5

Also: QXM rings the cell tomorrow at NYSE opening.
http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1178534678731.html

la=onda: Could you please merge the two XING threads? Thank you

Seems like XINGs PR finally decided to give us some info. They provided details about 2006 and Q12007 earnings. Should be out in mid june. They also claim that COSUN is doing very well.
I bought a lot on Friday around MA200 that proved to be a good support on several occasions.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070507/lnm506.html?.v=5

Also: QXM rings the cell tomorrow at NYSE opening.
http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1178534678731.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070516/cnw019.html?.v=8

$.36 EPS for Q1.  Nicely done XING.  That's what I am talking about. 

I'm back in.

that's only QXM, once XING reports QXM plus COSUN numbers it will be huge. I have been accumulating for the past two months and this could start the reversal of the short term trend