3SOF

I agree with David....
I am very afraid that I am down 20% on CIMT and TZOO now, but look at ANGN..
Can you believe that? Holy Moley! More than Trippled!

Here is how I deal with the pain.
I continually reassure myself that I am only in a stock with only 6.66% amount.
Even if David is wrong (Heaven forbid) and CIMT goes down to Zero (Pretty Unlikely), its only 6.66% of my portfolio. Big Friggin Deal!
We are most like going to have one or two monsters in our portfolios that could double easily with time of course

Enjoy the ride when it comes. I am continually watching that MACD & Stochastic on CIMT.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=cimt&Refer=http://clearstation.etrade.com/

I think it will trend up soon


Wxmang

I am not even blinking an eye at today, of all the picks in the 3SOF portfolio I have the most confidence in CIMT.  A few days of down movement is to be expected here and there, especially after the recent monster run.  My "profit" got cut in half and it can go back down to zero or even be negative for awhile but CIMT is the one stock I have the strongest hands in.

I dont believe I am naive here, as a recent "sure thing" with CPNE I did sell knowing that the business model was unsound despite lots of optimism on this board.  But with CIMT I see a strong business model, global expansion at the perfect time, a high margin potential, and from a country with a great history of people and businesses that know how to make money.

It is thus a matter of faith in what we know now, but as long as you can maintain that faith then on days like these you just have to imagine how good you will feel 7 months from now at year end when CIMT should easily have doubled or more from here.  Literally see that number in your portfolio and you can feel more reassured.

Have not looked at CIMT till today, the story looks good, hope revenues keep growing.
Will probably trend down to $3 or so before going back up if they have a good quarter.
Last quarters earnings were mostly a+ because of there cost cutting expenses.

Quote from: BigSully1 on April 27, 2007, 04:49:20 PM
David you make  excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more.

How many are considering buying more on the dip, or averaging down if this goes back to the $2 range?

I know David isn't keen on that strategy, but it sounds like there others sufficiently exuding with confidence, that they might.

It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss.  I will not.  There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.

Quote from: Kublakhan on April 27, 2007, 05:58:20 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on April 27, 2007, 04:49:20 PM
David you make  excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more.

How many are considering buying more on the dip, or averaging down if this goes back to the $2 range?

I know David isn't keen on that strategy, but it sounds like there others sufficiently exuding with confidence, that they might.

As David will tell you, you should be careful about averaging down. Be careful about getting too extended as then your hands become weaker should the stock go down further, or will be too eager to sell much too soon with a meager profit compared to what may be had. I've had this experience many times as in the example of what I did on ANGN.

There is still also the real chance of error in expectations.

I never purchased CIMT, at least not yet. I thought it speculative and I would have liked to see another report first. However if the price gets irresistable enough, I will likely take the plunge anyway. There is also risk in my strategy, in that I may never get in and reap the potential big rewards, should David's expectations pan out. GL.

 Well, I blieve CIMT is a huge win, check out ADSK, I bought it 5 years ago, turned off the quote screen and held it, now how much is it?? The much more important, ADSK is actually the major competitor to CIMT, only much bigger, with 9B market cap

I went to a bookstore in Shanghai yesterday, and guess what? I found 2 computer books on Cimatron I never expect CIMT will be as big as ADSK in CAD/CAM area, but with 30M market cap and work hard to market its products, it will be worth at least 1B in 5 years.

And the most interesting thing is: on www.cimatron.com.cn, there is press release every 2 days (for example, cimatron E8 is localized into Chinese, launch in Beijing, road show in Suzhou...too much), on http://www.cimatron.com.cn/pages/news2007.asp, you don't need to be able to read Chinese, just check out the date, you will see how intensively the news are out  here, if the management cares to put some time to translate it into English just like CHINA's management did, it will be well over USD 9 now

Anyway, I believe this is another 'buy and forget', just my 2 cents

I personally am more comfortable with daytrading but if I were to get in on CIMT for the longer term based on fundamentals, I will time my entry by buying weakness if it hits the 3.05 range since it broke the 4.44 range.
It would be nice to see if the market maker is sitting on the bid at that support on the day I pull the trigger.
If buying on strength, I would wait for the weekly chart to go above the 8ma with a weekly higher high.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 27, 2007, 04:08:10 PM
If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:



There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.

And the future was:



I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.

My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.

David, I am wondering why you did not buy back ANGN for the portfolio, when it made a huge rally five months after you sold it. You could still made huge chunks of profits if you did.


For CIMT, it should bounce back at 50% Fibonacci retracement, 50sma is also catching up, it might be a good entry point there. IMHO

QuoteWell, I blieve CIMT is a huge win, check out ADSK, I bought it 5 years ago, turned off the quote screen and held it, now how much is it?? The much more important, ADSK is actually the major competitor to CIMT, only much bigger, with 9B market cap

ADSK was at $7 five years ago and it is a $42 stock now, awesome investment chinaguru, congratulations. It is also good to know the potential market size for CIMT is huge, since ADSK is a $9.7 B market cap company in the same sector (even though ADSK is a much more diversified company in terms of its solutions and product offerings).

QuoteI went to a bookstore in Shanghai yesterday, and guess what? I found 2 computer books on Cimatron. I never expect CIMT will be as big as ADSK in CAD/CAM area, but with 30M market cap and work hard to market its products, it will be worth at least 1B in 5 years.

Well, I don't know about $1 B, since that would mean a 37 fold increase from the current $26.5 M and a share price compound annual growth rate of 106.6% for the next 5 years. The company would have to diversify its product offering like ADSK did. But not impossible, in technical software land, everything is possible.

Quote from: Ares on April 28, 2007, 07:07:38 AM
I personally am more comfortable with daytrading but if I were to get in on CIMT for the longer term based on fundamentals, I will time my entry by buying weakness if it hits the 3.05 range since it broke the 4.44 range.
It would be nice to see if the market maker is sitting on the bid at that support on the day I pull the trigger.
If buying on strength, I would wait for the weekly chart to go above the 8ma with a weekly higher high.

Thanks for your opinion Ares, and good luck with your day trading I want to be careful not to write anything negative about day trading because I know it depends on your confidence, but  my advice, if you allow me, is for you to diversify your income sources.

QuoteDavid, I am wondering why you did not buy back ANGN for the portfolio, when it made a huge rally five months after you sold it. You could still made huge chunks of profits if you did.

I wasn't looking, why should I? And it would be personally hard for me to buy the stock on a 50% gap up a few months after selling the stock (of course, looking at the chart today it would be easy, but back then ...). Also I never make intraday trading decisions, so probably I would buy it 150% higher the next day hahaha

If what you're trying to say is "you can always buy back the stock higher after selling on a technical breakdown if things change" my answer is, yes, you can, and your hands will always be weak and you will always be a seller on a technical breakdown and will never make a huge long term return on your investments acting that way.

I'm looking to think big and think long term, and to think that way I need to study long term factors that affect stock prices, not short term fluctuations. My pursuit is to ignore these since they don't tell me much about the future.

Going back to CIMT, I bought it at $2.90, and several people here bought it lower than myself.

Quote from: buddjas1 on April 27, 2007, 06:14:57 PM
It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss.  I will not.  There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.

Yes, there's that need, not to prove something about long-term holding, but because my buying price has nothing to do with the company's long term value. By the way buddjas1, I'm still winning on my MSI trades, you're losing because you had weak hands the first time we bought it, right? If I were you I would try to learn from past mistakes and hold CIMT with strong hands, nevermind your buying price.

Honestly, we're looking at 3 - 5 bags of potential profit here, who cares if you get +20% or -20% out of this trade? Don't turn your back to a potential 300 - 500% profit because you're too worried about losing a 20% profit. It's an illusion to think you can get above average returns taking 20% profits in small cap growth stocks. Why is it an illusion? Because you'll need to focus on short term information to try to predict the unpredictable, that is, short term fluctuations in stocks. Sometimes you'll make 20% profit and other times you'll make a 20% loss, not really making any money over the long term.

Again, back to CIMT, my valuation model says current fundamental trends and prospects will take the stock to $27.18 in early 2010. I'll keep holding CIMT.

Cimatron to Showcase New Die Design Application at BlechExpo, the Premier International Fair for Sheet Metal Processing
Monday April 30, 5:30 am ET
Die Makers Claim to Win More Business and Complete Projects in Record Time Using the DieDesign Application

GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News) announced that visitors to the upcoming BlechExpo trade fair in Germany will be able to see the CimatronE DieDesign, which was officially released several months ago. Cimatron's die design application helps produce quality designs in record time, enabling die makers to win more business and carry out more profitable projects.

"Thanks to DieDesign, we are able to win more business," said Thorsten Franke, project manager at Ernst Keller GmbH in Arnsberg, Germany. "Since we can forecast more accurately, we are able to offer our tools at the right price. Today, we are establishing a quotation at an average of only one hour including the blanking, strip layout, and material utilization. Prior to DieDesign, we needed six hours for this kind of work."

The new application is rich with die-specific functions, so designers no longer need to spend valuable time attempting to construct the unique features of a die using general-purpose CAD systems.

"From the very first time we saw DieDesign application, we realized it was the right tool to make us work more effectively," added Franke. "The blanking is absolutely accurate and detailed. In the past, we usually had to perform several modifications on the ready-produced tool or on the laser cutting in order to accomplish a correct part. Since using DieDesign, the scope of modifications in these phases has been considerably reduced."

The DieDesign application is tightly integrated with other parts of the CimatronE CAD/CAM product suite, streamlining the entire product cycle from quoting to manufacturing and the delivery of a complete die tool. More information about DieDesign is available on Cimatron's website at www.cimatron.com.

Visitors to BlechExpo can view demonstrations of the DieDesign application and the entire CimatronE product suite at Cimatron's booth number 5423, located in hall 5. With nearly 650 exhibitors and more than 14,000 expected visitors, BlechExpo is considered one of the world's premier events for sheet metal processing. This year's fair (June 13-16) will take place for the first time at the new convention center in Stuttgart, Germany. For more information and registration, see http://www.blechexpo-messe.de/en/blechexpo.

"We are excited to introduce the new Die Design application," said Dirk Dombert, manager of Cimatron GmbH. "The initial feedback from customers like Ernst Keller GmbH is extremely encouraging, and we look forward to exhibiting such a promising solution in front of all the industry's professionals that will be attending this important event."


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070430/ukm004.html?.v=101

Quote from: David Randolph on April 29, 2007, 01:43:30 PM
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Quote from: buddjas1 on April 27, 2007, 06:14:57 PM
It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss.  I will not.  There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.

Yes, there's that need, not to prove something about long-term holding, but because my buying price has nothing to do with the company's long term value. By the way buddjas1, I'm still winning on my MSI trades, you're losing because you had weak hands the first time we bought it, right? If I were you I would try to learn from past mistakes and hold CIMT with strong hands, nevermind your buying price.

Honestly, we're looking at 3 - 5 bags of potential profit here, who cares if you get +20% or -20% out of this trade? Don't turn your back to a potential 300 - 500% profit because you're too worried about losing a 20% profit. It's an illusion to think you can get above average returns taking 20% profits in small cap growth stocks. Why is it an illusion? Because you'll need to focus on short term information to try to predict the unpredictable, that is, short term fluctuations in stocks. Sometimes you'll make 20% profit and other times you'll make a 20% loss, not really making any money over the long term.

How are you still winning on MSI?  You cleared the account on the China scare and, then, you bought in the $3s and it's now at $2.18.  Yes, I have lost twice on MSI.  However, $2.18 is still much less than the first time that I bought MSI (at $2.50, if I remember right). 

That is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from.  Never let a profit turn into a loss.  If you follow that advice, you'll always make money. 

CIMT appears to be fine.  So, of course, I'll let the profit run long term.  But, if CIMT falls to around $2.90, I'll listen to what the market is telling me and sell accordingly.  Remember, there is no assurance that CIMT will even post a profit this quarter, let alone grow at the rate that you project. 

QuoteHow are you still winning on MSI?  You cleared the account on the China scare and, then, you bought in the $3s and it's now at $2.18.  Yes, I have lost twice on MSI.  However, $2.18 is still much less than the first time that I bought MSI (at $2.50, if I remember right).

Don't you remember? I bought MSI at $1.93, sold at $3.05, bought back at $3.12 and the stock is now trading at $2.18. So by my account I have a (3.05 - 1.93) - (3.12 - 2.18) = $0.18 gain, which on a $2 stock is about 9-10% profit. You can check the history of these trades on the Closed Trades table or on MSI's thread. Anyway, not a good holding for me either, even though my timing was just a bit better than yours (on other occasions I'm sure your timing was a lot better than mine - it is mostly a matter of luck and it doesn't affect long term results much in my opinion - even though most people pay a lot of attention to short term timing).

QuoteThat is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from.  Never let a profit turn into a loss.  If you follow that advice, you'll always make money.

Yes, I agree that is sound advice, but just make sure your definition of profit and loss is large enough not to be affected by short term noise.

QuoteCIMT appears to be fine.  So, of course, I'll let the profit run long term.  But, if CIMT falls to around $2.90, I'll listen to what the market is telling me and sell accordingly.  Remember, there is no assurance that CIMT will even post a profit this quarter, let alone grow at the rate that you project.

I agree, no assurance that CIMT will post a profit in Q2 2007. My point is the stock going down to $2.90 or not between now and the earnings release won't tell you if the company will post a profit or not, because the market doesn't have a clue either, and fear alone can do stuff like that. Did the market know what was going on with ANGN when it made the stock broke down so badly, just a couple of weeks before a one day 150% rally on earnings? It didn't know.

Well, I guess people selling CIMT yesterday also didn't have a clue, since I just checked and the stock is up 8% as I write Yet, I'm equally confident on my fundamental outlook today as I was yesterday, no reassurance from the short term movements of the stock.

I am not trying to pick on you, but that logic is flawed: what if a stock you pick goes down immediately? You will have no profit to take, do you cut loss right away? Then on balance you can not be sure if you will always make money or not.

Quote from: buddjas1 on April 30, 2007, 10:56:58 AM

That is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from.  Never let a profit turn into a loss.  If you follow that advice, you'll always make money. 

Quote from: realcoolhead on April 30, 2007, 12:27:48 PM
I am not trying to pick on you, but that logic is flawed: what if a stock you pick goes down immediately? You will have no profit to take, do you cut loss right away? Then on balance you can not be sure if you will always make money or not.

I think you answered your own question.  Of course, if the stock goes down immediately, there is no profit to take.  In those circumstances, I typically hold until I have a profit (sometimes that will never happen and I sell, e.g., CHID, etc.).