3SOF

It is a replay of last year when the stock price slid. But this time FRPT has a bigger contract backlog. And they were right about June and July.

Although the Pentagon is shifting money around to cover war costs until the spending bill is signed, the Army said dollars already approved and in the pipeline for the vehicles will not be affected.

Additional orders cannot be placed until the disagreement over the war spending legislation is settled.


Deadlocked Bill May Halt Troop Carriers

By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer
Saturday, April 28, 2007

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/n/a/2007/04/28/international/i093538D30.DTL

(04-28) 10:17 PDT CAMP FALLUJAH, Iraq (AP) --
The armored carrier has a grim black slash across its side, burn marks on the door and a web of cracks along the window.

Like most of the Mine Resistant, Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles in Anbar province, this one has been hit as many as three times by enemy fire and bomb blasts. Yet, to date, no American troops have died while riding in one.

But efforts to buy thousands more carriers — each costing about $1 million — could be delayed if the White House and Congress do not resolve their deadlock over a $124.2 billion war spending bill.

About $3 billion for the vehicles is tied up in the legislation. The spending plan has stalled because of a dispute over provisions that would set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

At a hearing last month, lawmakers urged the Army to get more of the carriers to the battlefront as quickly as possible. The vehicles, with their unique V-shaped hull that deflects blasts outward and away from passengers, are considered lifesavers against the No. 1 killer in Iraq — roadside bombs.

Military leaders say the carriers have reduced roadside bomb casualties in Iraq by as much as two-thirds. But they are not effective against the enemy's latest weapon — explosively formed penetrators, which hurl a fist-sized lump of molten copper capable of piercing armored vehicles.
Right now, there are at least 1,100 of the armored carriers on the battlefront in Iraq, including the 100 or so that rumble through Anbar province carrying troops and clearing roads of explosives.

The Army, Marines, Navy, Air Force and Special Operations forces want thousands more. The goal is more than 7,700, at a cost of about $8.4 billion.

The Army wants 2,500, at a cost of about $2.7 billion. The Marines are planning to buy 3,700 and would send about 3,000 to Iraq. There will be 525 in the country by the end of the year, said Brig. Gen. Mark Gurganus, ground combat commander for U.S. forces in western Iraq.
As the Pentagon scrapes to find the money to run the war in the midst of the budget impasse, the Pentagon says there is not enough cash to buy as many as commanders say they need.
"We can build what we can get the funds to build. It's strictly an issue of money," Gen. Peter Schoomaker, former Army chief of staff, told a Senate committee last month.

At the time, he said the Army had an unfunded requirement of about $2 billion. Lawmakers added some additional money to the bill, so that number would now be about $1.5 billion.
He said the Army believes "that not only do we need the MRAP immediately to give us better protection, but that we need to stay on a path to get an even better vehicle than the MRAP for the long haul, because the enemy is going to continue to adapt."

Senators pressed for more. "We're buying far too few of them," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D. "If we have that capability, why would we not do everything to mobilize, to move as many of them into the field as is possible?

In January, the military approved contracts to buy 4,100 of the armored carriers, using nine different companies to fill the order. Although the Pentagon is shifting money around to cover war costs until the spending bill is signed, the Army said dollars already approved and in the pipeline for the vehicles will not be affected.

Additional orders cannot be placed until the disagreement over the war spending legislation is settled. That bill would give the Army ($1.2 billion), the Marines ($1.25 billion), the Navy ($154 million), the Air Force ($139 million) and special operations forces ($259 million) money to buy their own versions of the carriers, according to Bill Johnson-Miles, spokesman for the Marine Corps Systems Command.

The Defense Department has requested about $4.4 billion in the 2008 budget to buy more of the vehicles.

Out on the dusty roads in Anbar province, Marines say the carriers have proved their worth.
This month, Marine Staff Sgt. Tim Kessler said, Marines were riding in one and took a hit from a small roadside bomb. The blast blew a tire, and it took them more than 90 minutes to limp back to base, but no one was hurt. Days earlier, a carrier with six Marines was hit by two blasts; two Marines had broken bones, but they all survived.

"It's an extremely survivable vehicle. I guarantee it saves lives," said Kessler. Pointing to the scars on the side of the MRAP, he added that had they been riding in a Humvee or something else, "they would all be dead."
___
On the Net:
Background on the armored carriers:
http://tinyurl.com/yohu6u

fyi:
General Dynamics Receives $245 Million for Mine-Protected Vehicle Work
Monday April 30, 4:45 pm ET
Joint venture with Force Protection, Inc., shares $490 million program award

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich., April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- General Dynamics Land Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD - News), has received a work order for $244.5 million of a $490 million contract awarded to Force Protection, Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT - News) on April 24 to produce 1,000 vehicles for the U.S. Marine Corps' Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program.

Force Protection and General Dynamics have formed a joint venture, Force Dynamics, to share in the production and program management of the MRAP contact.

This latest MRAP delivery order purchases Force Protection's category I 4X4 and category II 6X6 Cougar vehicles. Manufacturing will be performed in Anniston, Alabama; Charlotte, Michigan; Ladson, South Carolina; Lima, Ohio; Kings Point, North Carolina; and Sealy, Texas.

&

"...with the existing backlog..."

Backlog

From 10Q page 4 - The following chart illustrates our product deliveries in the last two calendar years and our backlog as of December 31, 2006 (check ATTACHMENT9

Additional backlog since Dec 31,2006 (refer to 10Q page 16):

Cougar JERRV: 15
Cougar MRAP: 125 (1/2 of which is FPIs as part of FD JV) + 1000 (1/2 of which is FPIs as part of FD JV): 562.5
Cougar Mastiff: 22

Buffalo: 19  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070309/apfn_force_protection_marine_contract.html?.v=1

Cougar MRAP: 4 Test vehicles

Anticipated additional orders that are working their way thru the Govt:

Cougar ILAV: approx 600 (300 being FRPT's share) from original contract that is yet to be awarded.  Refer to the following for further detail:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=132&mn=46553&pt=msg&mid=1633022

Buffalo: 180 (refer to the following as provided by mrzippy: http://www.fbo.gov/spg/USA/USAMC/DAAE07/W56HZV07R0343/SynopsisP.html

Total current backlog + anticipated:

Buffalo: 59 + 19+ 180 = 258
Cougar JERRV: 8 + 15 = 23
Cougar MRAP: 200 + 62.5 (half of 125 order as part of FD JV) + 4 = 766.5
Cougar ILAV: 102 + approx 300 (1/2 of anticipated 600 order) = 402
Cougar Mastiff: 55 + 22 = 77

Total Actual and Anticipated near term backlog: 1046 Actual + 480 Anticipated = 1526

Notes:

1. The Buffalo order (180) and ILAV order (1/2 of 600 or 300) while highly likely are not guaranteed since not yet official.

2. Some of the above were delivered in Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr

3. As FRPT works thru this backlog and demonstrates increased production capability its likely that more and more sizeable MRAP orders will occur.  This will also somewhat depend on the passing of the Supplemental funding bill by Congress.   Again, not guaranteed but highly probable.

Well that brings us to a bottom line metric of Profitability or its ability to generate profits.

We have revenues, contracts, and future contracts.

We have expansion costs which must pay for themselves.

Royalties and partnership costs.

Competition with LRIP contracts to pursue the future MRAP contracts. Namely BAE and OSH/PVI. FRPT got there early and got lucky and were able to capture the remaining production contracts in the 2007 budget. But until the competition shows their production plan to capture a percentage of future contracts. FRPT's future MRAP contracts are shadowed by what is the competition going to do?

One stategic note. Will the competition pursue MRAP with their own funds like FRPT? Or will FRPT maintain its lead position to capture future contracts of increasing numbers. How will the competition pay for production expansion/increases without additional contracts until June or July when the 2007 Emergency budget may pass? Or will it stall their plans to capture larger contracts?

Terry; it´s just you and me updating the thread and being invested in FRPT


LOL


cheers
O.

Its okay, thinking out loud is normal for me.

This is the third time it has roured past 20 towards 25.

I think it is a triple top until future contracts come in to cover the expansion.

I am going to hang in until the Q1 report this month.

We are stuck argueing the continuation.

  nice end of the day...

A very nice homing pigeon.

Waiting to see the tale of the bears and the bulls develop and reveal itself.

what I really don´t linke:
Force Protection Chairman Sells Shares

Associated Press 04.27.07, 11:43 AM ET   
   

The chairman of Force Protection Inc., which makes blast-protected vehicles, sold 750,000 shares of common stock under a prearranged trading plan, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Thursday.

In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Frank Kavanaugh reported he sold the shares Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for $23.13 to $24.04 apiece.

The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material nonpublic information.

Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.

Force Protection is based in Ladson, S.C.


I will closely monitor FRPT the next days,,,
a little bit too much insider selling imho
cheers
O.

Since I am new here. How did this happen and what is it trying to tell us?

Fib Analysis Fibonacci analysis evaluates the short term (30 days) intermediate term (60 days) and long term trends (120 days) and retracements. Stocks that retrace 38.2% or less of a trend will usually continue the trend. Retracements exceeding 61.8% indicate a reversal. Alerts will include ABC's up/down (multiple 38% retracements) and various reversal signals.

Time Frame   Trend                         38.2%                      50%             61.8%
Long                 12.49 to 24.11   21.7 (20.74%)                  .             .
Intermediate     14.81 to 24.11   21.7 (25.91%)                  .             .
Short                 16.83 to 24.11   21.7 (33.10%)                  .             .


And my answer about the Chairman? It was good enough for him, thinking about it.

wow, from IV board 
Army Eyeing Replacement of All Humvees in Iraq with New Armored Vehicle

May 2, 2007 -- The Army is considering a request from commanders in Iraq to replace every humvee there with a Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle, a move that -- if approved -- could more than triple the size of the MRAP program, which today carries an $8.4 billion price tag. This proposal comes as the new-start MRAP effort -- which aims to rapidly build and field a large armored vehicle fleet -- elbowed its way on to the agenda of the most senior Pentagon officials this week, including the defense secretary and Defense Department's high-level Joint Requirements Oversight Council. Army brass this spring advanced a requirement for 2,500 MRAP vehicles, which have v-shaped hulls designed to protect occupants from roadside bombs, as part of a Marine Corps-led effort to build a fleet of 7,774 MRAPs and field them to U.S. forces in Iraq over the next 18 months. Commanders in Iraq, however, now believe Army personnel -- which suffer daily attacks from improvised explosive devices -- require a significantly larger MRAP fleet.

"We've got a requirement from the field that's a larger number than [2,500] and we're going to take a long, hard look at that," Pete Geren, the acting Army secretary, told the Senate Armed Services airland subcommittee on April 25. "The number that came from the field was 17,000 -- total replacement of the humvee fleet."

Officials on the Army staff declined requests to discuss details of the services' MRAP requirement, which could produce a large unfunded wedge in the service's modernization portfolio. Estimated per-unit MRAP costs -- including the vehicle, communication gear, electronic warfare capabilities, and two years of contractor support -- range from $1 million to $1.3 million, depending on which of three different-sized MRAP variants is procured, sources familiar with program details said. Still, Geren suggested at the hearing that Army leaders are open to raising the MRAP requirement, noting he "was not confident" with the 2,500-vehicle goal. "Perhaps it should be more," he said.

In effect, the Army is considering a policy change similar to the Marine Corps' decision earlier this year to provide MRAP-level protection for all Marines in al Anbar province.

"Under this policy, limited use of Up-Armored [humvees] will be authorized in specific tactical situations where the operational characteristics of [humvee] are required," Gen. James Conway, Marine Corps commandant, wrote in a March 1 memo on the status of the MRAP program to Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

This Marine Corps policy change, validated by the service's brass on Feb. 6, propelled its requirement for MRAP vehicles from 1,022 to 3,700.

The Army's assessment of its total MRAP need comes as the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, the Pentagon's high-level panel that must approve all new-start weapons programs, was scheduled on May 2 to consider -- and possibly endorse -- the requirement for 7,774 MRAP vehicles. Even this figure represents recent growth spurred Air Force and U.S. Special Operations Command requirements. Yesterday, in another sign of the high profile MRAP enjoys in the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Robert Gates received a program overview briefing, according to Marine Corps spokesman Bill Johnson-Miles. Meanwhile, support for the MRAP program continues to grow on Capitol Hill. The House Armed Services air and land subcommittee today announced it has added $4.1 billion to buy MRAPs in fiscal year 2008, an extraordinary sum -- even in the context of U.S. defense spending -- for an effort that is not a program of record and was not a priority only a year ago.

The House panel's action follows last week's commitment by Congress to provide $3 billion for MRAP purchases over the next six months. President Bush, however, vetoed the spending bill that contained the MRAP funds yesterday because of provisions regarding U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq. So far, the MRAP program in fiscal year 2007 has spent all but $150 million of the $1.4 billion available to the Marine Corps through congressional appropriations and internal reprogramming actions, according to a Marine Corps spokeswoman.

Nearly $900 million has been used to place orders for 1,639 vehicles on contract, a handful of which are complete. The current impasse over the fiscal year 2007 emergency supplemental spending package is forcing the Marine Corps to search internally for additional resources for MRAP.

"We are investigating additional reprogramming and realignment funding options to make more funding available to the program before appropriation and receipt of the FY-07 supplemental funding," said Dedra Jone, spokeswoman for the MRAP program. "Other than orders already placed and planned with funds on hand, we cannot place additional orders until more funding is available."

Sources said the service is preparing a new reprogramming request worth nearly $500 million to ensure that it has funds on hand to award production contracts over the next four weeks. This would be a second reprogramming action designed to shift funds to the MRAP program this spring. In March, Pentagon Comptroller Tina Jonas approved a $498 million reprogramming for MRAP. The push to make MRAP funds available comes as the Marine Corps and Army in late May are scheduled to complete testing of prototypes from eight tactical vehicle manufacturers. A key element of the rapid acquisition strategy is to begin awarding contracts as soon as testing is complete. -- Jason Sherman

Looks great, up in afterhours. Can you give me a source?

Found the source, but I am unfamiliar with it.


http://defense.iwpnewsstand.com/newsstand_main.asp

INSIDE THE PENTAGON
May 3, 2007 - Vol. 23, No. 18

ARMY EYEING REPLACEMENT OF ALL HUMVEES IN IRAQ WITH MRAP VEHICLES
The Army is considering a request from commanders in Iraq to replace every humvee there with a Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle, a move that -- if approved -- could more than triple the size of the MRAP program, which today carries an $8.4 billion price tag.
Story length: 1,260 words.


Did not bother buying it since we have this copy.

Force Protection, Demand Rising Fast, Execution nearly Perfect

The US Military and the US government have realized that the best way to save lives in Iraq and Afghanistan are to provide the soldiers with Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles. This realization was slow in coming but now that it has arrived, the demand for MRAP vehicles is for thousands of such vehicles each year.

Force Protection's Cougars and Buffalos are the safest and least expensive MRAP vehicles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Force Protection's vehicles were exhaustively tested against competing vehicles by both the British and US Government in the past and the Cougar and Buffalo outperformed all other vehicles.

Force Protection's vehicles are built to be rapidly repaired in case of damage by mines or IEDs. They are built where possible with common truck parts from US manufactures so that spare parts are inexpensive and easily available.

Force Protection has been improving the blast resistant design based on what they have learned from thousands of mine and IED blasts on their vehicles in Iraq and Afghanistan for several years.

Force Protection has licenses to the best anti-Mine and anti-IED technology available from South Africa. They have been adapting and improving the technology for several years and have developed new designs and technology. Force Protection's chief scientist, Dr. Vernon Joynt is the worlds leading expert on blast protection.

Force Protection has a new smaller vehicle called the Cheetah that is small enough to be a replacement for the Humvee. They developed the vehicle over several years and the military has been testing it. Now Force Protection is building the manufacturing capacity to build hundreds of these vehicles per month.

Force Protection will soon need the manufacturing capacity because the Army has recently announced that they would like to replace all Humvees used in combat areas with MRAP type vehicles. Therefore, the Army needs at least 17,000 Cougars and the smaller Cheetah. The Cheetah is closer in size to a Humvee and is less expensive than a Cougar. It is currently the best possible replacement for the Humvee.

Force Protection has revolutionary new add on armor to protect against the new IED threat called the Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP). This armor can be added to any Force Protection vehicle or other armored vehicle such as the Stryker or RG-31.

Force Protection is developing new blast manipulation technology that can be added to any wheeled vehicle such as the Humvee that is nearing completion.

The new armor and blast protection technology will be additional high margin products that Force Protection can sell to retrofit all types of vehicles.

Force Protection is expanding very quickly and they have forged new manufacturing agreements and alliances with the largest defense contractors in the world. The reason that the large defense contractors are working with Force Protection is because Force Protection has the best vehicles, the best technology and will be getting the most contracts from the military.

In short, Force Protection has the most advanced anti-Mine and anti-IED technology, they have the best vehicles and they are making the best political, technological and business decisions imaginable.

It looks real, I do not know the final number though.


defense daily

03 may 07


HASC Panel Cuts $867 Million From Army Future Combat System ...


The near term needs of the services prompted additions to the budget and the FY '08 supplemental request. Those include a $4.1 billion increase in funding for Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles and a $500 million increase in funding for National Guard equipment. The mark adds $294 million to buy Stryker combat vehicles, money which is offset by a $228 million reduction to the Stryker Mobile Gun System, which is delayed as it waits for additional testing to be completed.

The smoke clears. Funds have passed committee to be included in the 2008 budget. The committee recommended 4.1 of 4.4 billion requested.

After the close yesterday and it has been going up ever since.

Closing in on 7700 vehicles or slightly less.