3SOF

Thanks for the useful articles BigSully1 and nullzero, they show the company has a good product and service.

CIMT keeps bouncing from the 50% Fibonacci retracement support level, around $3.30, and the 50 days SMA is getting close, currently at $3.24. Technically everything seems set for a new bullish phase to begin, one that takes the stock to new highs above $4.70.

We're just 2 or 3 days away from Q1 results. Whatever the results are, I'll probably keep on holding CIMT, because if they're strong, I'll be positively surprised, and if they're weak, I'll attribute that to seasonal factors.

I'll keep holding CIMT.

Quote from: BigSully1 on May 11, 2007, 11:51:39 AM
I've been studying CIMT for some time and finally bought today, just not so much that I might have weak hands. I think the reward vs risk ratio is VERY compelling. I'm looking forward to adding considerable more after the ER. I will likely even add more before the report, even though I feel it is still somewhat speculative, I am greatly optimistic here!

Manufacturing is very much alive and well, especially overseas. HDNG - Hardinge, a manufacturer of computer controlled machinery just had another blowout Q.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070510/nyth035.html?.v=93

HURC will report soon and will likely surprise to the upside also.

Those selling now, must have bought too much to feel comfortable with? Instead of selling all, why not just bring it down to a more reasonable comfort level?

This just might be one of David's greatest finds.

By the way, HDNG moved way up to #2 on IBD's 100 list this weekend. HURC back on the list at #65, might climb higher on the list after ER.

#1 BTJ #2 HDNG #3 MTOX.

IBD made good mention of NGA, but mostly that it hasn't yet formed a base since breakout below 10. Will probably end up on their 100 list once it breaks and holds $15. Stocks have to be above $15 to appear on the list. GIGM may soon be on the list also as IBD has commented alot about it last couple months.

It's always nice to find these stocks well before they ever appear on the list. CIMT may very well be one of those. It could even end up #1, if and when it breaks $15. I have a good feeling on this one.

Quote from: BigSully1 on May 11, 2007, 08:02:53 PM
May not mean much, but here is what one very small U.S. company has to say about Cimatron. Note that they were remarking about Cimatron E version 6. I think they released version 7 last year and version 8 just in March this year, probably with significant improvements. This company also uses Hurco CNC machines.

http://www.ftdinc.com/cimatron.htm

I just found out that this company is now using Cimatron E version 8. Maybe I will try to call them tommorrow and see if I can get an opinion from them.

Cimatron's Q1 2007 Results Release Scheduled for May 21th
Monday May 14, 6:12 am ET 
Conference Call Scheduled for May 21st, 2007 at 9:00am EDT


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070514/ukm021.html?.v=55

I feel good about earnings coming out on a Monday before market open. 

Most of the good earnings posted on Mondays before market open are good 

and the stock looks good now

Quote from: Garoh on May 14, 2007, 10:48:13 AM
Most of the good earnings posted on Mondays before market open are good 

and the stock looks good now

Agreed, its interesting how that tends to work.  When companies have bad earnings they tend to try to sneak them in after the bell on Friday, when they have good earnings they like to showcase them early in the week to get the most eyes on them.  This isnt a guarantee for CIMT, but it does seem like a good sign anyway.

Looking at the industry and related industries earnings recently there is a strong chance we will get some good earnings.

QuoteIBD made good mention of NGA, but mostly that it hasn't yet formed a base since breakout below 10. Will probably end up on their 100 list once it breaks and holds $15. Stocks have to be above $15 to appear on the list. GIGM may soon be on the list also as IBD has commented alot about it last couple months.

Nice, both NGA and GIGM are above $15 now. I remember that appearing on the IBD top 10 had a tremendous effect on SYX, remember? Unfortunately the very sharp rally that unfolded was a selling opportunity, since SYX is now more than 40% below those levels.

QuoteIt's always nice to find these stocks well before they ever appear on the list. CIMT may very well be one of those. It could even end up #1, if and when it breaks $15. I have a good feeling on this one.

CIMT at $15 would mean the second biggest gain ever for the Main Portfolio, that would be awesome. But make sure you have a lot of patience to wait for that outcome, because it can take several years (or not, since it is such a small cap). The estimates I have on my valuation model call for CIMT at $24.45 in late 2009, so ... why not?

As Se7en posted, we now have an official date for the Q1 earnings release, which is nice:

• Cimatron's Q1 2007 Results Release Scheduled for May 21th
PR Newswire (Mon 6:12am)

I believe this is the first time they pre-announce the earnings release date, and also the first time we'll get a conference call after the earnings (we didn't get one on the full year 2006 results presentation, just a press release). So, CIMT wants everybody to pay close attention to these quarterly numbers, which I believe is a positive sign.

Quote from: mbaugh on May 14, 2007, 10:40:58 AM
I feel good about earnings coming out on a Monday before market open. 

I'm not aware of that "good earnings are released on Monday morning" pattern, but I hope you guys are right mbaugh, Garoh and tokyopua.

Quote from: nullzero on May 14, 2007, 01:14:07 PM
Looking at the industry and related industries earnings recently there is a strong chance we will get some good earnings.

I agree nullzero, manufacturing is hot across the world, and CIMT is a very small but global manufacturing software services company. So the macro environment is favorable.

But let's not get too excited about this quarter (making sure we don't get depressed if earnings aren't that good), since Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter. But history also says that after Q1 it can only get better, so if Q1 is good ... uh la la for the rest of the year.

I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands.

quote "I believe this is the first time they pre-announce the earnings release date, and also the first time we'll get a conference call after the earnings (we didn't get one on the full year 2006 results presentation, just a press release). So, CIMT wants everybody to pay close attention to these quarterly numbers, which I believe is a positive sign. "

David, in your above statement, could this signal pressure from institutional investors wanting CIMT to have a conference call or do your believe they are doing this since they feel they are a new company meaning the turnaround is finished, now CIMT is a proitable company and they want to act like a growing company.  I'm just curious since I would have thought they would have done this on Q4 and year end earnings.  My feeling is that in order to gain institutional investors you have to provide conference calls to shed more insight as to what is going on within the company before they decide to buy.  Large institutional players will make a stock move much higher since they buy large blocks at a time.

Mbaugh

QuoteDavid, in your above statement, could this signal pressure from institutional investors wanting CIMT to have a conference call or do your believe they are doing this since they feel they are a new company meaning the turnaround is finished, now CIMT is a proitable company and they want to act like a growing company.  I'm just curious since I would have thought they would have done this on Q4 and year end earnings.  My feeling is that in order to gain institutional investors you have to provide conference calls to shed more insight as to what is going on within the company before they decide to buy.  Large institutional players will make a stock move much higher since they buy large blocks at a time.

Mbaugh

According to my fundamental data service there's only one institution holding CIMT's shares, and just 25,000 of them, so management sure needs to attract institutional investors.

I agree with your view of management's motivation to make a conference call this time, now we'll just have to wait for the quarterly results to see the facts.

I'll continue holding CIMT.

Maybe this is a dumb question.  Since today was the last day for filing 2007 quarter 1 results, shouldn't CIMT have already filed or is it different for a foreign company?  I understand CIMT is to report on Monday, I'm wondering are they waiting until the last minute to file such as GOAM.  I know CIMT is completely different than GOAM and I feel very confident on holding CIMT thru its earnings, I'm just wondering how the deadlines are different?  When is the absolute deadline for CIMT to file anyways, i wanted to see how close they are to the last day required.

Thanks for the help!

Mbaugh

CIMT is considered a foreign private issuer. They're not required to file a 10Q. Only a 20-F.
"A foreign private issuer must file its annual report on Form 20-F within six months after the end of the fiscal year covered by the report"

http://www.secfile.net/SEC_calendar.htm#EDGAR_Filing_Deadlines_for_Quarterly_and_Annual_Reports

M.

Thanks for the information Money, applaud

CIMT will report on Monday before the market open, and I'll hold through earnings, even though I haven't been "lucky" with that course of action lately. But as I wrote today on GOAM's thread, if I were to sell holdings before earnings I would be doomed to be a short term trader (never holding a stock for more than 3 months), and I sure don't want that.

But I need to tell everybody not to raise expectations too much (especially I want to warn myself), because Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter for CIMT ... moreover, it will be easier to deal with a not so satisfactory outcome if we're prepared for it (I know, I didn't prepare for GOAM's negative news, I genuinely thought the quarter was going to be profitable - I want to learn something from the situation).

So, to put everything in perspective on the three updates I have left before earnings, I want to  make clear that I'm not owning CIMT because of positive expectations for this quarter, but because of longer term motivations. Q1 2007 can be weak and CIMT can still be a $20 plus stock three years from now.

I'll keep holding CIMT.

Technically CIMT is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, which basically means "nobody knows what to do". But usually these formations end up breaking out in the direction of the long term trend, which in CIMT's case is obviously bullish.

Mbaugh was saying at the chat (by the way, pay us a visit at the chat between 12:00 and 13:00, every trading day, it has been great) that he thought CIMT would be trading higher in anticipation of good results. But my thinking is it is better this way, we don't want to inflate expectations before the actual news hits the wires. Moreover, look at GOAM, the stock was up before earnings, it looked like "somebody knew something", but no, everybody was wrong in predicting strong revenue growth and positive net income, and the stock tanked.

My take is, with today's fear of going to jail like it happened to several guys lately, insider trading is almost non-existent. Which insider is going to let information leak knowing he can end up in jail because of that? The risk is too high and therefore there's an information gap between quarters.

Going back to CIMT ... I just love the fact that the company didn't dilute shareholder's value in tough times (between other positive factors), I'll keep on holding it for the long term with strong hands.