3SOF

Hi David,

I hope that you are doing well today - tough day in the market for CIMT - OUCH! 

Excuse me for sounding silly, but how does it follow that:

"This quarter is a further confirmation that the future is bright, and that the stock is undervalued, right here, right now."

When we witnessed today that both revenue and net income decreased for the quarter?

"revenue went down a negligible 0.74% to $5.33 M and net income was $181 K versus $220 K."

David: I dont see such a bright future for CIMT, given these facts. What do you see, that I am missing here?

Thanks - and have a good one!

Bourbon 

my 2nd bloodbath in a good week time ... 

Quote from: terainvestment on May 21, 2007, 10:07:40 AM
It seems CIMT is recovering fast now...2.5$ is a critycal point, the top of the gap...if it breaks down there is nothing till 1.5$

Just a point of clarification, $2.5 zone is indeed a support area, but not the top of the gap, that is actually at 1.8.  

Wow, at 2.95 now, seems like CIMT was put on sale there for awhile heh, hope the recover continues and we close about $3.

Sorry tokyopua, you are right.

I was wondering the same question about the brilliant future of CIMT...should this one a weak quarter or a stopping of the good trend both in revenues and earnings?

Just checked the price and the bid is higher than the ask! thats wierd?

QuoteHi David,

I hope that you are doing well today - tough day in the market for CIMT - OUCH!

Yes, I'm feeling very well today. Like I wasn't particularly happy when NVTL rose 10% after rising 30% or so, I'm not particularly sad today that CIMT is falling ... let me see now ... 21%. I feel the same, since the stock market doesn't have the power to change my mood.

QuoteExcuse me for sounding silly, but how does it follow that:

"This quarter is a further confirmation that the future is bright, and that the stock is undervalued, right here, right now."

When we witnessed today that both revenue and net income decreased for the quarter?

"revenue went down a negligible 0.74% to $5.33 M and net income was $181 K versus $220 K."

Well, I wrote that the stock is undervalued right here, right now, because over the past six months CIMT had net income of $0.093 per share, and if the next 6 months which are seasonally stronger deliver at least the same $0.093 EPS, the stock will then have $0.186 for a full 12 month period. At, $3.65 that gave me an estimated 19.6 times earnings multiple, and the Technical software industry is currently trading at 35.64 times earnings. At $2.89 the estimated EPS multiple is about 15.5, which, again, compared to the industry average is outrageously low.

As for the comparison between Q1 2007 and Q1 2006, indeed, this quarter was just a bit lighter than the year ago quarter. But we got assurance that there will be revenue growth due to the contribution of Myscrosystem's acquisition, starting in Q3 2007.

Also, I figure that the company's recent product launches, that were effective only in late Q1, still didn't have a material contribution to sales and earnings, but probably they will going forward.

QuoteDavid: I dont see such a bright future for CIMT, given these facts. What do you see, that I am missing here?

Thanks - and have a good one!

I see a weak quarter due to seasonality, but revenue and EPS growth going forward, either because of organic growth or acquisitions. I also see a company that never diluted shareholder's value, so management's objectives are aligned with the ones of common shareholders.

It's going to take time (probably three years), but I still see CIMT with a $191 M market cap in 2009, that is, at $24.45.

Quote from: terainvestment on May 21, 2007, 10:20:46 AM
Sorry tokyopua, you are right.

I was wondering the same question about the brilliant future of CIMT...should this one a weak quarter or a stopping of the good trend both in revenues and earnings?

Hi terainvestment, there wasn't any trend, just one good quarter, and now a not so good, but still profitable, quarter. The company has been through intense restructuring, product development and cost cutting efforts. Now, this quarter was light, but I was already expecting it (not this weak, but weak). It doesn't change the long term outlook for the company, as management says, and I believe them because they have no interest in lying:

«Cimatron's business and financial results are well in line with the company's plans. They reflect the organizational turnaround of the last two years and the positive response to its recently launched CimatronE version 8, as well as typical market seasonality.»

Ohhh my lord! 23% drop.....it is a tough day.

2 bucks should be a safe entry point on this one.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 21, 2007, 09:44:39 AM
congrats to the people that took profits before earnings

Wish I was one of them...

Will keep holding too.

David, doesn't this (once again earnings sell off) make you reconsider on the other ones this week GIGM, NTES etc. Somehow holding through earnings never seems to work out right. Does anybody have some positive examples?

Amarens

QuoteDoes anybody have some positive examples?

You can pick any stock that rose a lot over the years. As for stocks that we know well, SILC and NVTL, for example:





The only thing that makes me sad about CIMT's fall is that people may disregard the benefits of long term investing and go back to swing trading

Have to go now, see you after the close for the daily updates.

I guess NVTL is a positive exampel twice (also jump in May after earning release). SILC went way down after earnings release on April 25th.

Well, just have to learn to deal with these mixed feelings with long term holding.

Question: Is it really disregard long term investing if you have the knowledge most stocks fall after earnings release and you act on it by securing gains and re-invest basically right away?

Might be interesting to do some research on this, average % of fall after earnings release with long term interesting stocks? I'll see if I can find some time for that this week.

Amarens

Hello everyone.

In the past couple of weeks, i've been reading this post and questioning myself if i should buy CIMTor not..

After reading the posts and looking at CIMT's charts (i added it) i decided to "sit on the fance" for now... unless the stock breaks the 4.1 $ which means good news.
The reason i decided to do that is that even if we don't like it... in small stocks like CIMT, there is ALWAYS   someone who knows and talks to his friends, the advantage for us is that we can see that if we look close enough...

we could saw it in the many resistances in the last few weeks (i circled in red) - couple of critical weeks before the reports.

NOW the story can be different: all the premium the investors gave CIMT disepeared...
BUT, the responds where, i think, exaggerated. look at the "over shoot" the stock made.
(the blue arows)

i tried to buy it in the 26%-27% low of the day, because i felt it is too much but didnt cought it.. (i'm working from israel with local broker with 20 min delay) now the stock is in the range that investors that took the time to learn the report think it should be...

now is the time to sit calmly and decide if the price is cheap enough...
CIMT's future look good anyway, there is no question for me here, just when to enter.

Good luck,
avivwiz

Quote from: tokyopua on May 21, 2007, 10:01:45 AM
tough day, but I guess this is part of long term investing.  I just bought more at 2.50.

I am glad to have caught CIMT at the low of the day.  I had mentally prepared myself for this kind of scenario and resolved that if the stock gave me a chance to get more at a discount that I would take it instead of worrying about my paper losses.  I nearly doubled my position in CIMT today, which if the long term plays out as we expect it will, is like doubling the bags I hope to get.

Of course, as we saw today nothing is certain and the stock could still go below 2.5, but I would expect that this is the worst news we would expect to hear all year given the seasonality of Q1 being generally weak.  And if indeed it just keeps going higher from here I will look back on today and just smile.

I dont know much about CIMT or its potential or its bottom but I do want to say that David has time and again proved that he has the best record. I did watch CIMT with disgust as it was falling like rock but I think it has more to do with being low float then anything else. If some big hedge fund or even a small fund wants to manipulate it then it will. Just try selling 5k shares at market and you may move this stock 1%. If even twenty of us are selling at open then you get something like 20%. On the positive side it may need about 20 of us to move it back 20%. I think the stock may be back in 3.5 range in couple of days.

Quote from: stocky on May 21, 2007, 11:40:12 PM
I dont know much about CIMT or its potential or its bottom but I do want to say that David has time and again proved that he has the best record. I did watch CIMT with disgust as it was falling like rock but I think it has more to do with being low float then anything else. If some big hedge fund or even a small fund wants to manipulate it then it will. Just try selling 5k shares at market and you may move this stock 1%. If even twenty of us are selling at open then you get something like 20%. On the positive side it may need about 20 of us to move it back 20%. I think the stock may be back in 3.5 range in couple of days.

1000shrs can move this stock 1% easily hehe.

As David had expected with earnings less than .03 investors may over-react and we would see a 10-20% drop.  We saw great support at 2.50 as it bounced sharply and traded steady above 2.75 the rest of the day.  I think we will see 3.00+ very soon and never look back.

Great potential for the next 3 quarters, in 2006 with an even 2nd quarter, -.04 3rd quarter, and +.07 4th quarter (note: I don't know much about these earnings other than the final result), so we only need to see greater than +.04 over the next 3 quarters to see profit growth.  We already know the 3rd quarter should be much better than -.04 with factoring in profits from Microsystems.  I think management has this company in a great position to succeed in 2007 and beyond.  I believe that this blip will soon be long forgotten.

Cheers to all those willing to tough out the short term hurdles; your reward awaits you.