SVA

[logocovet]

Thanks Melf Elf,

I put a stop @ 2.50, just below the 50dma.  I really have to learn to use stops more often.   NVAX has been shown to sell off in the later part of the week and rebound on Mondays.  Lets see if that holds up.  (do you usually put stops at support or just below it?)

I have a bad feeling though that NVAX has topped out and will go back to where it was before the bird flu speculation.  History seems to bet on this.

Still in SVA as I think it is the exception of the bird flu stocks.

[Melf Elf]

Thanks Melf Elf,

I put a stop @ 2.50, just below the 50dma.  I really have to learn to use stops more often.

logocovet,

Yeah, stops help to prevent small losses from becoming big losses.  "Live to play another day."

(do you usually put stops at support or just below it?)

Yes.  Below a trendline or a prior low.  Like with DNDN, for example, I knew that I wanted out if 5.88-5.89 support that we talked about so much broke to the downside.

I have a bad feeling though that NVAX has topped out and will go back to where it was before the bird flu speculation.  History seems to bet on this.

It's something to keep in mind, given some of the examples that we've discussed.  When "everybody knows it," you at least want to know where the exit door is.

Remember the security stocks after 9/11?  Those also were momo-driven, a "had to own" and "a long-term hold."  Terrorism wasn't going away any time soon, and it hasn't.  But, how did that translate to the security stocks?

Identix (IDNX) was one of the high flyers in the group.   When the market finally opened in late September, 2001 after 9/11, IDNX gapped up at 8.00.  "Conventional wisdom" was that the company would have great earnings, given all of the security-related business that they would get.  "No stopping this stock!" and things like that.

IDNX had a big run after 9/11, but only for few months.

Four years later, IDNX still hasn't posted a profit in any the seventeen quarters since 9/11. 

Anyone who bought the gap up opening of 8.00 in late September, 2001 for a long-term hold was nailed right there.  IDNX is seriously under water, closing today at 4.44.  You don't hear much about IDNX anymore.

[vic666]

Melf,

Just sent you a personal message....had a few general questions.

Please reply at your convenience.

Thank you, 

Vic'

[Michael]

The whole world want it and we got it:

China has its own version of bird flu drug - media
13 Nov 2005 07:04:49 GMT

Source: Reuters

BEIJING, Nov 13 (Reuters) - China has developed what it calls the equivalent of the anti-bird flu drug Tamiflu in preparation for a feared pandemic if the virus begins spreading among humans.

Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases, was quoted in the Information Times newspaper as saying the drug would be effective in treating the virus.

"New progress will be achieved in the near future," the paper's Saturday edition reported Zhong as saying.

Shouldn't hurt the share price on Monday

[valueseeker]

Also, the state coucil of China just allocated US$250M to fight Avian flu

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200511/11/eng20051111_220504.html


----------------------------
China's self-made human avian influenza vaccine ready for clinical test
         


China's self-made human avian influenza vaccine is waiting for the approval of a clinical test, said a health official Thursday in Beijing.

Preclinical experiments of the vaccine, which started in May 2004, have ended. A clinical test will be carried out as soon as the State Food and Drug Administration approves it, said Wang Yu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The vaccine for human avian influenza was jointly developed by the center and a Chinese drug company. Clinical tests will further prove its safety and effectiveness, he said at the first China-Thailand-Vietnam workshop on prevention and control of human avian influenza.

Officials and experts from the Chinese Ministry of Health, the disease control and prevention center, the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Vietnam, Hong Kong and Macao are sharing information and techniques to curb human avian influenza on Thursday and Friday.

A cooperative mechanism is to be set up by the three countries soon and the workshop will be held every one or two months.

Source: Xinhua

[vic666]

Remember, a drug is different from a vaccine. What SVA is making is a vaccine to treat humna bird-flu. Wonder what the official means when he said a "chinese verison of the anti bird-flu drug Tamiflu".

is he talking about Sinovac's vaccine....coz' I dont think so.

just a thought.

[Michael]

Wonder what the official means when he said a "chinese verison of the anti bird-flu drug Tamiflu".

is he talking about Sinovac's vaccine....coz' I dont think so.

Good question I am also not sure but I really don't care. This dazzling baby is in bed with the Chinese Government. I would love if it is SVA's own vaccine as it could/will open new opportunities internationally but the main market is China and even if they have stolen it from Roche, Roche can't do a s... about it. You might not like it and it is certainly not very ethical but from a shareholder point of view stealing can be very profitable 

I seem to remember that Microsoft stole Windows from Apple who stole it from XEROX and MSFT is the world largest company today

Mike

[vic666]

from another board:

absolutely without a doubt Sinovac IS THE ONE AND ONLY...

"Under the cooperation with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Sinovac is the only manafacture in commitment in the Key Technologies R&D Programme for the developed of Pandemic vaccine."

http://www.sinovac.com/R_D/AvianInfluenza/


and also read the 9/20 "UBS" PR

"As with other countries, the Chinese government has demonstrated its commitment to defeating the anticipated avian flu pandemic. Most recently they did this by granting funds to Sinovac for avian flu vaccine research and development. The amount of funds is not specified; rather they will be provided in stages to cover the entire research and development process. This is the first time a grant has been awarded to cover expenses from the earliest stages of an R&D project."

"According to the agreement between the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Sinovac in December 2004, Sinovac is responsible for avian flu vaccine research, development, application and production. Under the terms of the agreement, the new drug certificate, production license, and patents will all be applied for by Sinovac and as a result the commercial rights will be entirely owned by Sinovac."

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050920/205626.html?.v=1

[Michael]

and here is another piece of information which unfortunately is more scary:

Virus in Vietnam mutates: report

Some changes in gene segments 

HANOI: Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City Pasteur Institute has found that the bird flu virus strain H5N1 in the country has mutated to make it more dangerous, local newspaper Youth reported on Saturday.

There are some changes in gene segments of surface antigens HA and NA and some other gene segments of bird flu virus type A subtype H5N1 in Vietnam in early 2005, which indicates that the virus has been mutating to reproduce effectively in cell of mammals, and increase its attacking capability, according to results of the institute's research on 24 virus samples from infected poultry and people in the southern region between December 2003 and March 2005.

I am not sure how realiable the source is but if truth.....

[la-onda]

Flu can jump to humans 'more easily'

Infected boy had no record of touching fowls

By Apinya Wipatayotin

Health experts yesterday urged the public to go on high alert against bird flu after an investigation of the latest bird flu patient, a 18-month-old toddler from Bangkok, suggested the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus could jump to humans much easier than before. Previously people picked up the virus from direct contact with infected birds, but the boy, Worawut Ruesrijan, had no record of touching fowls, even though he lived with chickens in his house.

He probably contracted the disease by accidentally touching chicken droppings, said Kumnuan Ungchusak, chief of the Public Health Ministry's Bureau of Epidemiology.
This meant a person could be infected with avian flu virus if he or she lived in a bird flu-contaminated environment, he said.

Basic health care practices, such as frequent hand-washing and avoiding close contact with fowls, were the most crucial safeguards, particularly for the elderly and children, who had weak antibodies against infectious diseases, said Dr Kumnuan.

Livestock Development Department chief Yukol Limlamthong said people's negligence in telling livestock and health officers about the death of fowls was a major obstacle to the control of the bird flu outbreak.
Mr Yukol accompanied health officials on a visit to Worawut's house in Bangkok's Klong Sam Wa district yesterday.
The Livestock chief said three roosters raised in the boy's house had died since last month, but the owners did not report the case to livestock officers until the boy developed flu-like symptoms. The area was not declared an outbreak zone, prompting residents to pay less attention to protecting themselves against bird flu.
The poultry owners claimed they did not contact the officers because the number of dead poultry was small. They also assumed the chickens died naturally because they were very old.
Worawut's aunt said she had never thought the roosters died of bird flu. She even threw away the chicken carcasses with her bare hands.

''In fact, during a seasonal outbreak like this, poultry owners must report incidents to officials as soon as possible even if only one bird dies at your house,'' Mr Yukol said.
He also stressed the need for backyard poultry raisers nationwide to keep the birds in a contained area to prevent them from being exposed to avian flu from the outside environment.
A doctor at Siriraj Hospital said Worawut's condition was improving. His infected lung had recovered rapidly due to fast detection and early treatment. However, he must be kept for a 21-day observation period in accordance with World Health Organisation recommendations.
Worawut is Thailand's 21st bird flu case since the H5N1 virus was first detected in January last year. Thirteen of those cases have been fatal. Four cases have been detected within the last month, and one person has died.
The boy developed high fever at the end of last month and was hospitalised at Siriraj on Nov 6. A Department of Medical Science laboratory test confirmed the boy was infected with the H5N1 virus on Friday.
''I am not aware of the disease because the place was free of the disease until last year. So I thought it would not happen to my family,'' said Worawut's aunt.
The boy's 65-year-old grandmother has been hospitalised for a lung infection. Her condition, however, was not critical. The initial lab test was not conclusive and more tests were needed, according to Dr Kumnuan.



http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/13Nov2005_news02.php

[la-onda]

H5N1 mutation appears closer

The greatest fear of health professionals across the globe - the mutation of the bird flu H5N1 virus into a form transmissible between humans - appears to be closer to happening, according to a Vietnamese research study.

Chester Yung

Monday, November 14, 2005

The greatest fear of health professionals across the globe - the mutation of the bird flu H5N1 virus into a form transmissible between humans - appears to be closer to happening, according to a Vietnamese research study.
Cao Bao Van, director of the Molecule Biology Department of the Pasteur Institute, Vietnam's center for bird flu research, was quoted by Reuters as saying 24 samples of the virus taken from poultry and humans showed significant changes, indicating it is mutating into a form that could trigger a pandemic.
Reuters reported that Van was quoted in a state-run online site as saying the study showed an "antigenic shift" involving major changes of influenza surface proteins. These changes could result in the appearance of pandemic flu viruses.
At present, the virus is not easily transmissible between humans.
Van was quoted as saying the study had also found that another mutation allows more effective breeding of the virus in mammals.
But Van said the study has not yet concluded whether the virus could move easily between people.
According to the World Health Organization, the next influenza pandemic is not a question of "if" but "when."
Klaus Stohr, coordinator of the WHO's global influenza program, was quoted in the Houston Chronicle Sunday as saying: "The fear is that the virus will become transmissible from human to human. This fear is real, it's scientifically substantiated, and we have enough historical data to tell us that the pandemic that would come out of this mutation would lead to a global health emergency, with millions of deaths, a global spread in less than three months and people in the developing countries being hardest hit.

"It'd be inappropriate and wrong to disregard these signals. The chances of it causing a pandemic are logarithmically higher than the chances of it not going to cause a pandemic."

Scientists from Hong Kong University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong are looking at a range of infectious diseases and searching for cheap diagnostic tests that will aid poorer nations to cope with any outbreak.

The HKU and CUHK gained grants of HK$30 million and HK$25 million, respectively, after the SARS outbreak in 2003 to tackle infectious diseases on the scientific front.

A team of HKU microbiologists, led by Prof Guan Yi, has already collected more than 100,000 samples from birds in South China and Southeast Asia and managed to sequence the genetic codes for more than 250 strains of H5N1 - indicating how widespread bird flu is in the region and how the virus is mutating.

"Making a vaccine is only part of the solution. But to get there, we have to do a lot of research to find out what viruses there are and their differences," HKU Department of Microbiology professor Malik Peiris said.
Since the pandemic might not stem solely from the H5N1 virus, the CUHK team is focusing on the general prevention of infectious diseases.
It is also examining follow-up work with SARS patients, as this could provide significant reference in post-pandemic phase treatment.

"We are also looking to develop a cheaper way to diagnose and monitor diseases," said the director of the center for emerging infectious diseases, Prof Joseph Sung.

He said the current devices used for diagnostic tests cost millions of dollars and may be beyond the reach of poor countries, making early detection and isolation of any pandemic more difficult.

Sung said the CUHK is also examining the social and economic impact of infectious diseases.

As such, the psychological impact on SARS patients during rehabilitation is worth studying, Sung said, noting that the relevant study of the social and economic impact of infectious diseases can offer the government a bigger picture and help it formulate public health policy.
Many medical experts agree Hong Kong is better prepared for the next pandemic than many countries because of its SARS experience. Yet vaccine production remains a major concern in Hong Kong and throughout the world.
Peiris suggested that, as Hong Kong has one of the leading laboratories in the world, it could play a major role.
"We have the technology to make vaccines, but it doesn't help because we need to have a pharmaceutical industry to support it," he said.

"Singapore [and Taiwan have] put a huge amount of effort into building up a pharmaceutical industry. In this respect, Hong Kong is miles behind."
Currently, only a few companies in the world can develop vaccines for testing - Sanofi-Pasteur (France), Chiron Corp (US), ID Biomedical (Canada) and MedImmune (US).
The Chinese biotech company Sinovac is reportedly testing an H5N1 vaccine based on an influenza strain provided by the WHO in 2004.
During the global summit on bird flu in Geneva last week, WHO experts reported that about 900 million doses of H5N1 vaccine would be available within eight months of a pandemic breaking out. Meanwhile, Indonesia said a woman died of suspected bird flu Saturday, AFP reported. Jakarta's infectious diseases hospital spokesman Dr Ilham Patu said she lived close to a flock of backyard chickens that died suddenly.



http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=11&art_id=5604&sid=5461306&con_type=1

[vic666]

la-onda...from your above post...it might make sense to highlight the mention of SVA in the article, alongide giants like Roche, Sanofi-Aventis etc.

here it is

"Currently, only a few companies in the world can develop vaccines for testing - Sanofi-Pasteur (France), Chiron Corp (US), ID Biomedical (Canada) and MedImmune (US).
The Chinese biotech company Sinovac// is reportedly testing an H5N1 vaccine based on an influenza strain provided by the WHO in 2004."

[Melf Elf]

We had a lot of bullish news last week on SVA (and bird flu stocks, in general), but the stocks didn't respond on the upside.  The market didn't perceive the new as bullish.

Early Friday morning, SVA went down rather swiftly to 4.89 support again, and once again, the bulls defended it.

The bears now have put in a "possible" second right shoulder of a H&S Top, to go along with the "possible" double neckline.

Failure to rally on bullish news isn't bullish.  NVAX losing 50% of its value in only two weeks on bullish bird flu news, in general, isn't bullish.  Failure to rally (and NVAX actually breaking support) with Cramer and others pumping bird flu stocks isn't bullish.

Bulls need to do something bullish here, to show us that all of the bullish news really is bullish.

A good start would be a print of 5.36, which would be a tick above Friday's high and it would be darned close to taking out the down trendline off the October high (looks to be somewhere between 5.36...5.40 on the log chart).  And, not just print it, but close up there, or higher.

Next would be to take out the November 8 "gap to crap" high of 5.85.  That would turn the bearish "possible" second right shoulder into a bullish "W"-bottom (see drawing in green at the bottom right of the chart).   

[sebfr]

Buyyyyy

news :
BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 14, 2005--Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (AMEX:SVA - News) announced that the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) has examined its Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project and accepted the results; clearing the way for continued sponsorship of the program.
China's MoST periodically evaluates the nationally funded Pandemic Influenza Vaccine R&D Project, and determines if sufficient progress has been made before Sinovac is permitted to continue. For the first critical step, top professionals from MoST conducted extensive evaluations of Sinovac's preclinical trials, and accepted all the results of this project to date.

Top professionals from MoST determined that Sinovac's method for developing an avian influenza vaccine for humans can be used for the prevention of influenza pandemic among humans, caused by the mutated strain from H5N1. Sinovac established in its preclinical trials that it has the ideal technological platform, personnel, equipment and management for the vaccine's development and production. Sinovac's preclinical trials have shown that its vaccine candidate has a high-quality safety and immunogenicity profile.

Sinovac developed its proprietary Pandemic Influenza Vaccine based on the NIBRG-14 virus strain provided by the British National Institute of Biological Standards and Control (NIBSC). Since April 2004, Sinovac completed its study of production processes; established a viral "seed bank" for vaccine production; and set up quality standards and testing methods.

Sinovac has applied for human clinical trials for its pandemic influenza vaccine with the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA). In preparation for approval, Sinovac has already produced sufficient pandemic flu vaccines to complete human clinical trials.

Successful vaccine research and development of a Pandemic influenza vaccine is Sinovac's second national achievement against emerging virulent infectious diseases. In 2004 Sinovac developed a safe and effective inactivated SARS vaccine, and became the first company in the world to successfully complete phase I clinical trials.

About Sinovac

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a world leader in the research, development, manufacture and commercialization of vaccines for endemic and pandemic viruses such as hepatitis and influenza, and for fast emerging viruses such as SARS and avian influenza (bird flu). The Company's objective is to provide Chinese children with the best vaccines in the world, and let children in the world use vaccines made in China.

Additional information about Sinovac is available on the Company website, http://www.sinovac.com

technicals :
good uptrend and MA50 as support

[Melf Elf]

Bulls need to do something bullish here, to show us that all of the bullish news really is bullish.

Bulls are getting it done today.

A good start would be a print of 5.36, which would be a tick above Friday's high and it would be darned close to taking out the down trendline off the October high (looks to be somewhere between 5.36...5.40 on the log chart).  And, not just print it, but close up there, or higher.

5.36 was printed early today, and Thursday's high of 5.50 also was taken out this morning before a pullback to the the 5.19 gap area, and then an acceleration higher.

Next would be to take out the November 8 "gap to crap" high of 5.85.  That would turn the bearish "possible" second right shoulder into a bullish "W"-bottom (see drawing in green at the bottom right of the chart).   

The middle of the "W"-bottom pattern, 5.85, is just overhead now.   This is much better.

SVA currently is BID 5.78...ASK 5.80

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9