NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[LiveLife]

Thanks vailant457 and retvet24 for the posts on Yahoo MB:

"Someone can answer to this question ??

I asked me if it can easily go up...so what do you think ?

6 dollars more... or down ?

I don't know what to do ... "


retvet24's response:

As for your question, we are correcting and rebasing following a MAJOR squeeze play by the shorts and big $$$, with MM's tacit approval (if not outright manipulation).

Stocks go up, stocks go down...this one in particular has so much upside potential that it is impossible to ignore at $3.50. If you wait, you could miss the boat, if you get in, and the correction continues (I think it's 90-95% done with) you're in cheap...

Fasten your seat belt, this is an "E" ticket ride!!!


Anyone who wants to sit back and "watch it grow" consistently should be in CD's...and I don't mean the plastic ones...


Nothing but good news from here on out for this company, regardless of the bird flu outcome, this stock is still a good one. For anyone that actually wants to check it out...

http://www.novavax.com

[LiveLife]

Thanks matthew_minogue2000 for the post on Yahoo MB:

"My feeling is that not only was it on the short list but some micro cap fund sold there position on Thursday to close out the book for October. That happens. If you are an institution investor you would like the weak hands out of this stock. With all the volume in the last 2 days I figure that has happened. That is my take anyway. We will be in the 4's by Monday and no later than Tuesday. Thats my take."

matthew minogue2000,

Yes, and Bloomberg report did mentioned that, Monday is last "trading" left the October before the start of Nov 1, and you could be right.

[basonista]

I can't stand baseless predictions like those found on Yahoo and elsewhere.  "This stock is ready to double!" or "Buy now or miss the boat!" or "Fasten your seat belt, this is an E ticket ride!".  Bah, what a bunch of pendejas!

That said, I believe the poster is correct, but because of the chart.  The stock is still in bullish territory.  As lifelife mentioned, NVAX came back and bounced off it's 20dma but also it's 50% fib retracement level AND it's TL2 trendline.  A close below any of these on Monday could signify a trend revearsal but bouncing off 3 intersecting support points is a very good sign that a rebound is to come.  I'm not crazy about the 3 black crows candle formation but if that is to be a trend reversal, it will have to be confirmed on Monday.  It is looking like Monday will be the deciding day on NVAX.  Either the support levels will hold and it will stay in bull mode or the candle formation will be confirmed and a bearish trend will be established.

[LiveLife]

LOL, basonista, thanks for your post and chart! 

I know, some at Yahoo MB do get "carried" away at times, but I do agree with you that retvet24's may be correct.  We'll know if that's the case next week.

Since there has been so many new posts, let me repost my Friday's "recap" post here:

Yes, NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with highgest "Institutional ownership up last month."

Good morning!

Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking.  Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).

With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.

As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days.  With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.

I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.

Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading!   

I swing traded NVAX today.  Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!).  As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon.  So I guess, I really day traded today.  Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday.

What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals).  After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar,  and  50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.

Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today.  Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning.  As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.

So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up.  According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains.  Of course, we'll see what happens next week.  Have a nice weekend everyone!

[saffeysite1]

Here is a simple TA analysis of when to buy and sell NVAX.  I donnot think we are (I am not) an investor, or else I wouldn't care to much about the price fluctuations.  I am  a position trader and I care about price entries and exits.  I think on SVA and NVAX a lot of people bought near the top of the second wave.  I for one made that mistake on SVA and got hammered yesterday and took a 20% loss.  I never want to do that, it breaks my trading plan, but  I fell in love with the story(worst mistake for a trader).  I forgot to go with the trend.  Now that I have gotten over the loss.  It's time to work on getting back into these bird flu stocks at the right entry, so to maximize our gains, or else why are we all here?  We must all learn from this experience or we have walked away with nothing and have not helped ourselves become better at this craft.   I donot like taking one loss if I can help it. 

In the chart I am posting, if you follow the Fast and slow stoch.  You can almost pick 100% when the stock is making its big move up and when it's reached top.   It almost looks to simple but it works.  It looks like NVAX may have a little more drop before she will go back up.  Let's all maximize our porfits on the next run.   

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB:

Novavax's recent gains are primarily due to their existing and 2 soon to be released products (in 1 week!!!  Probably update mention on Nov 7th conference)

Novavax is a SOLID company with CURRENT products:

- Estrasorb, FDA approved nano-particle technology estrogen therapy product that already has "clinical" approval
- Estrasorb has $12.5 million in the BANK!  $2 million down payment and $10 million by end of December
- Novavax has patent licenses good til 2015!!!
- Novavax is "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership/merger!!!'
- Novavax is actively "licensing" their products and nano-particle technology to other companies (more annuouncement due out soon)'

AND

- Novavax has Avian vaccine solution.  "Full solution" as stated by CEO that is "Best in class"!!!

Novavax will only benefit from Avian related issues in the weeks/months to come.

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB:

new york new york 2003,

Novavax's new management team is very well qualified and credentialed with many years of experience from MIT, Merck, Eli Lily along with host of patents held by the CEO.

With $2 million in the bank with $10 million by end of December, they will certainly not let the Avian opportunity by when they have a "full solution" that is "best in class" with "state of the art production facility" - Recombinant DNA process for rapid customization to emerging strains, 2 month low cost-high yield insect  cell-culture process they already have, and adjuvant Novasomes to enhance the immunogenic response to "human" vaccine to develop a single dose vaccine instead of two dose vaccine currently being used (30 day second dose).

Novavax will not sit idle.  Just look at the CEO doing all the presentations these last few weeks.  It is matter of time before he lands a government/corporate partnership/merger.

Why do you think there has been month long "highest Institutional ownership gain" and continued accmulation of the Institutional/money managers along with insider buying?

Time will be the best judge what happens to Novavax in the coming year!

[LiveLife]

Thanks sthd836 for the post on Yahoo MB:

This is in regards to th note conversion:


"Good idea. These kind of events investors like, they should see that. I think they know a lot more than we do and it is good....... The bond holder would not CONVERT at 5.68 unless something was in the pipeline. You see that had to be negoaigaeted up front."

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB:

brocade 2003,

Then their shares will be bought by new buyers coming into the market from the "bear market" sidelines.

Nov-Jan has been historically bullish following the Jul-Sep historically bearish market.

Those that cashed out the last few months will be buying stocks on recent "discount" and will be buying the volume/gain/institutional gain leaders, which BTW NVAX is.

Time will tell what will happen to NVAX next week!

Good trading!


More...

josh40 ca 2000,

We don't all pump on this MB nor 3SOF.  We try to share information (chart trends/TA/etc.) to help uninformed buyers of NVAX.

I stated on previous posts this morning that according to chart trends, there probably downward trend before resuming the climb, unless new buyers push the demand up next week due to Bloomber's "return of bullish market" reports and by other media.

You make money by being ahead of the pack.

I bought NVAX at $2.02 and sold at $4.50 - $4.30.  I bought back at $3.47 and sold towards $4 yesterday and bought back $3.62.

I know that NVAX retraces down towards $3, but that's the risk I am taking to be "ahead" and if/when NVAX does rebound to $4, I will be smiling, and so will many others that bought back mid-$3.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Thanks matthew minogue2000 for the Yahoo MB post:

If you listened to the conference presentation, you would have found out the following:

The company believes that they have the potential for best in class on the Avian Flu vaccine. Adding the Novasomes to the vaccine creates a higher imune response. The novasomes are patented. Why is this good because there is no reason for a second shot.
No egg process which means NVAX can make it faster. The deal with Wave means they can make a lot of it quicker and cheaper. They are actively seeking a partner so what does that tell you? Mentioned the convertible bonds and the next day news comes out on that.
Of course there has to be fallout from the whole King Pharma. fiasco and the company is in the midst of repairing itself. The first thing I would do is clean up the balance sheet which is what they are doing. There is no doubt in my mind that they will get a partnership. I honestly feel that Novartis would be a nice fit and they can tell Chiron to go shove it. If this company has the goods which I believe they do they will get a deal. Since August the management has done a remarkable job. Estrasorb deal, The pharmelle deal and fixing the balance sheet. That is why the stock has gone up and will keep going up. Does anyone realise what this company is doing? Vaccines can be made close to real time like a lot of other industries. To me that is a big deal. Thats my take anyway. Feedback?

[trader567]

So, I have to redesign my trading rules:
1. I'm going to set a different maximum loss for regular (10%) and for penny stocks (25%).
2. Forbidden to trade without Stop LMT or Trailing Stop (in case of wild and fast rally)
3. Minimum 50% of profit have to be taken if profit was more than 30% of initial position and stock is falling.
4. Forbidden to triple standard position.

Rule 3 is a bit ambiguous: "stock is falling." You've got to define what constitutes the stock falling.

[cooljeff]

LOL, basonista, thanks for your post and chart! 

I know, some at Yahoo MB do get "carried" away at times, but I do agree with you that retvet24's may be correct.  We'll know if that's the case next week.

Since there has been so many new posts, let me repost my Friday's "recap" post here:

Yes, NVAX continues to be the week and month volume leader with highgest "Institutional ownership up last month."

Good morning!

Last night, I reviewed my list of stocks and did a lot of thinking.  Since I am back in "full" swing trader mode, for short-term swing trading, I narrowed down my three choices to NVAX, HEB and SVA (stocks that experienced the most amount of loss recently for maximum rebound gains).

With still bearish market trends in the near future, I decided to convert to cash this morning while I waited for a good entry point.

As anticipated, the NVAX selloff continued from last two days.  With NVAX having gone from $6 to $3.50, I decided that NVAX had the most to rebound for swing trade.

I bought 12,000 shares at $3.47 and will be setting my next sell target.

Good to be back in NVAX and Good trading!   

I swing traded NVAX today.  Sold as it gained towards $4 and bought back on dip at $3.62 (what a long dip!).  As part of the three stocks I narrowed down last night, I bought 5000 shares of HEB this morning and sold this afternoon.  So I guess, I really day traded today.  Once again, I am "all in" with NVAX for Monday.

What I learned also last night from Terlisa (Thanks! - this is what's go great about 3SOF community!) is that there was a duplicate RSI trend above 70 (Red Ovals) of last few days that corresponded with the selloff activity from end of August (Blue Ovals).  After today's close, the trend looks awefully familiar,  and  50 MA is still heading above 200 MA.

Once again,Institutional/money manager buying accumulation continued today.  Although the Lycos I-watch charts don't show, there was a block of shares sold executed early this morning.  As we have discussed in Yahoo MB, we question the true accuracy of the I-watch reporting, so only use the charts as a general guide, not an exact report of true Institutional/money manger activity.

So, I approach Monday with a renewed optimism that this was an inevitable price correcting selloff and NVAX will resume its climb back up.  According to the chart, there may be more downward correction before NVAX gains.  Of course, we'll see what happens next week.  Have a nice weekend everyone!

good job .thx!

[brandyjoco]

Unfortunately I can not read charts that is why I joined this service. I was hoping to glean information on the stocks that were recommended on this board. Is there a way that we would have know in advance that NVAX would drop?

I notice that the RSI was above 70..? I don't understand all of that but is this something we would be on top of in the future?  I felt really lost on this one and I couldn't find anyone else here posting that day that the drop began. I guess next time I shouldn't be so greedy....

Still don't know what to do so I guess I just sit and wait with my holdings.

[kpunarc]

Unfortunately I can not read charts that is why I joined this service. I was hoping to glean information on the stocks that were recommended on this board. Is there a way that we would have know in advance that NVAX would drop?

I notice that the RSI was above 70..? I don't understand all of that but is this something we would be on top of in the future?  I felt really lost on this one and I couldn't find anyone else here posting that day that the drop began. I guess next time I shouldn't be so greedy....

Still don't know what to do so I guess I just sit and wait with my holdings.

I'm still new to chart reading also, but what's helping me is www.stockta.com with technical analysis. Chart reading i use www.bigcharts.com and www.stockcharts.com. For definition of terms, i use www.investopedia.com. Anyways, it's what i use. Not sure how good they are, but it's helping me so far. enjoy!

[rurouni]

Brandyjoco,

You can find out the definition of trading jargon here http://www.investopedia.com and they offer a very good easy to read explanation too.

"The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, but a stock is considered overbought if it reaches the 70 level, meaning that you should consider selling. When it is a true bull market, an RSI of 80 might be a better level since stocks often trade at higher valuations. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is a strong buying indicator (20 in a strong bear market)."

No one can tell if the stock is going to go up or down 100% of the time but through technical analysis they can watch out, spot green and red flags for most of the time.  In term of chart reading, I am in the same boat as you are.  Perhaps one of the pros here can enlighten us.  Is there a thread for "stock lessons"?