NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[la-onda]

excellent analysis LiveLife, applaud 

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Bio Investor Forum 2005 continued.

[LiveLife]

Here's the excellent slide show visual presentation we couldn't see of Wednesday, October 19th Bio Investor Forum 2005.  Very nice graphics!!!

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.225

[LiveLife]

As you can see, Avian vaccine is a small part of Novavax.

Novavax continues to execute their business plan as expressed above and continues to expand their product lines and improve their operations (debt reduction and revenue generation).

Based on the information previously posted, I believe Novavax is a SOLID company EXCLUDING the Avian vaccine issue.  Now that Novavax has a "FULL SOLUTION" that is "BEST IN CLASS," it makes Novavax that much more SOLID.

I believe it is matter of time before Novavax finds an attractive government/corporate partnership/joint venture/merger.

IMHO

[gagan]

While I appreciate all the fundamental info its good to remember that looking for fundamental reasons to stay in a stock that is technically breaking down is a basic error for a technical trader. Sellers make stocks go down ...buyers make it go up... Whose hand is driving it is the basis for owning it. WE are HOPING for a bounce off support but hope doesn't trade on the NASDAQ is a well known quote. A more sensible play would have been to have a stop in place below the support at 4.80. Now we are looking at 3.00 support unless it gets a big push up Monday over the Friday high. Anyway I assume David sold already since it violated his trading plan. There's always another big play and money management is the only way to stay longterm in the trading game. Best Wishes and again I appreciate hearing all the great input.

[LiveLife]

Thanks gagan for the post.

Yes, after "numerous" discussions and reviews of charts (BTW, David Randolph last week "did" say that NVAX was no longer "trendable"), it is my opinion that NVAX will dip towards $3 before rebounding.

So, my recommendations would be (choose one that applies to you):

1.  If you are holding NVAX (long) and "uncomfortable" about the ride down to $3, then sell on market open, and buy back on signs of "bottom and rebound"
2.  If you are holding NVAX (long) and "comfortable" about the ride down to $3 and rebounding, then hold
3.  If you are holding NVAX and "wants" to swing trade, then sell on "signs" of more selloff on market open, and buy back on dip.  Of course, be careful to look out for early dip so as to not miss out on any "potential spiking" rebound carried over from Friday, but set your sell target immediately after you buy and sell as NVAX gains (I will swing trade NVAX, but on Friday, decided to ride out the Monday morning activity by holding through the weekend - I bought back on Friday morning at $3.47 and sold on gains towards $4, but bought back at $3.62)
4.  If you are not holding and "concerned" about the ride down to $3, then wait for a "definite" signs of "bottom and rebound" before you buy back
5.  If you are not holding and "wants" to buy NVAX, carefully watch NVAX activity on open, and buy at any point you "feel" comfortable
6.  If you are not holding and "wants to buy NVAX at any price", buy on open
7.  If you are not holding and "wants to swing trade NVAX" carefully watch NVAX activity on open, buy on dip and sell as NVAX gains (unless NVAX opens with gap and climbs - THAT'S why I chose to hold through the weekend, just in case, NVAX gaps open high)

Well, I believe we should fall into one of the above options.

I hope this will address the Saturday's long discussions as to what will happen on Monday to NVAX and what we should do.

l am open to any comments on the issue.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Hi   

This is in response to the question, "What will happen to NVAX on Monday and what should I do?"

(8th post from top)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg29199#msg29199

[LiveLife]

Thanks go big or go home1 for the post from Yahoo MB:

October 26, 2005
Novavax Highlighted by Awareness of Avian Flu, Analyst

Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, recently announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg, Towbin Life Sciences Conference on Wednesday. With increasing visibiility stemming from this future conference and added media coverage of the avian flu, Novavax could really be able to capitalize on this opportunity if the company can manufacture a viable vaaccine. RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Trbovich upgraded Novavax on a similar rationale, saying that "if the company can be in human testing of the vaccine in early 2006, they will likely attract additional attention from the U.S. government or prospective partners." The shares are down today, after having an impressive run this past week. However, with positive news likely to come from the company in respect to their development of a new vaccine, this could just mark the start of a new leg up.

[Amarens]

WOnder what David did - did he dump SVA and NVAX as they both are below his target exit points?

I'm pretty sure he sold. Since he does always stick to the plan being

I'm expecting NVAX to quickly come back up. I don't want to see it closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this last leg up ($3.70), or I'll take my profits and move on.

I did not sell. I got in high and feel stupid  . I sure don't believe this bird flu to be over yet and expect it to go back up.

Great post saffeysite !!! Let me applaud you for that. If I had only known that before... Do you have more examples?

Thanks
Amarens