NVAX - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[LiveLife]

Thanks matthew minogue2000 for the post from Yahoo MB:


I firmly believe the floor is set, or pretty close. Here are my predictions for the next 2 weeks. We all know we will have earnings which we will beat because of the deals announced. The income stream will be a little light but other wise we beat estimates. I really believe that in the next 2 weeks we will get government money or a partnership or both. Upgrades will come I am sure of that with a deal and earnings. Once we see the institutional % update this hopefully will confirm my hunch that it has risen from 10% to 20%. Now this is purely speculation on my part. Lastly, we will be removed from the naked short list as a result. The CEO last week said that he wanted the company to be a premier biotech firm. From most CEO's I would consider that as B.S. but the company in the last 2 months has executed. It is all about execution and follow through now. I believe in this new management team and if I didn't I would be long gone.

[LiveLife]

Thanks mojobernard for the post from Yahoo MB:

Stock is a Buy.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 2.92

[David Randolph]

Thanks for talking about your experiences in the market, we can all learn from them. I sold NVAX at $3.60 on Friday, collecting a 36% profit instead of the 111% I had 3 days back.

The rise was indeed parabolic, where I was wrong was that I thought it would still go higher. My analysis was a bit biased by that $10.56 target. I know there's a psychological thrill to trade with targets, and it has style, but overall it isn't wise. The more our mind concentrates on a specific target or on something that may happen in the future, the more it stops paying attention to what IS happening now. And now is the only time you can make analysis and decide to hold or sell.

As you know, I don't watch the intraday. Just the first and last half hour of the market. I don't think this diminishes my performance, I think it raises my chances of winning. I clearly remember when I watched the intraday, every tick, with millions of thoughts about buy/sell/hold. A bit of more happiness or sadness with every tick. Nobody can live with that for long, that's why most people end up being long term investors ... I like to do other things while the market is open to get all my energy to the end of the day analysis.

Anyway, 36% profit isn't bad, now it's time to move on to another speculative play. Good luck to those who continue to hold NVAX, I hope the stock rebounds next week.

[Hwang888]

From 07/22 to 08/25 (45 Days), total trading volume was about 22 M shares. During this period Hi was about 1.3 and Lo was about 0.7.  From 08/26 to 10/28 (45 Days), total trading volume was about 40300 M shares. The volume is trying to tell us something (about 2000 times), share price will settle at some point in the near term (I think to be $4). During this period Hi was about 6 Lo was about 1.3.  Within this 90 days period, there were 3 stage jumps. 1st stage price range was 0.7-1.3. 2nd stage price range was 1.3-2.5. 3rd stage price range was 2.5-6.  I think the dust will settle.  Price movement will oscillate between 3 - 4.5.  Based on trend pattern, the next jump will occur around 1st week of December.  Next week,  I predict shares price will be down for Monday & Tuesday approach to support point 2.5-3.15.  Trading strategy should be buying point around 3 and selling point around 4.  However, note should be taken for news and possible contract announcement.  If price movement pattern will duplicate for the period (08/26-10/28) for the next 45 days, it will be safe to trade between 3 - 4.5  before Thanksgiving.  After that, holding should be a good strategy.  Next week will be critical to watch the new pattern to surface.

[LiveLife]

Good post Hwang888,

Yes, last week David Randolph stated that NVAX is now a "speculative" play with potentially huge gain/loss that won't trend.

For short-term, we all must be careful.  If you don't have the "stomach" for the anticipated volatility of this stock, you may want to cash out and sit on the sideline and buy back once the stock "trends" again.

For day/swing traders, exciting days/weeks ahead!!!  Yes!!!

[rurouni]

Livelife,

3sof is also a great site.  I have been to Yahoo MB and it cannot be compared to 3sof.  I just want to say thanks for your many great informative posts.  It is guys like you who offers a lot of insight to beginners like me who is trying to learn and make sense of how to TAnalyze a stock.  

I believe I fall into category

5.  If you are not holding and "wants" to buy NVAX, carefully watch NVAX activity on open, and buy at any point you "feel" comfortable
6.  If you are not holding and "wants to buy NVAX at any price", buy on open

[LiveLife]

Thanks David for your comments!

I agree and that's why I also don't daytrade (too nerve wrecking).  Friday was an "exception" for me (I was home from work).

I reminded on my posts that NVAX is a "highly speculative" play with huge gain/loss risk and cautioned against next week, since I too believe that it will dip towards $3 before it rebounds.

Time is the best judge.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Thank you and you are very welcome.

I am just passing "forward" the same courtesy and stock trading wisdom that were shared with me by David Randolph, Frederick Ramsburg and many great "supporters" of 3SOF!

Once you gain some knowledge that works for you, share that information with other "newbies" to this site - "pay it forward!"

Be careful next week.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB today:


"Is NVAX a speculative play ONLY because of the volume; with MM, day-traders, doing their thing? It seems NVAX is a very viable long-term investment considering the base-line products NVAX is bringing on line right now AND the potential of the VLP technology. That coupled with good management and "connections" provides what seems to be a great future for NVAX.

I'd not want to buy on margin and/or put too much of my cash into NVAX. Yet, putting 10% of my investments into NVAX looks very reasonable considering the potential pay-off."


stockalias,

I believe David stated that NVAX is a "speculative" play because of it's unusual recent  gain/volume activity, thus not "trendable."

David Randolph is a strictly "technical" trader and will probably stay out until the stock is "trendable" again.

I believe NVAX is a "speculative" play for the near future because so much of its gain/loss activity will depend heavily on the frenzy related to the spread of Avian flu and the recent media/government response.

If we did not have the Avian flu issue right now, I believe NVAX would have "trended" on a climb more traditional to a company that is doing the "right" thing to grow and improve their market position.

But the Avian bird flu is in our face right now and we must be very cautious.  If the high risk of volatility of this stock worries you, you shouldn't be trading this stock.  That's why I believe David Randolph decided to sit this one out for "now."

"IMHO, always do your own DD (research - due diligence)"

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB today:


"Is NVAX a speculative play ONLY because of the volume; with MM, day-traders, doing their thing? It seems NVAX is a very viable long-term investment considering the base-line products NVAX is bringing on line right now AND the potential of the VLP technology. That coupled with good management and "connections" provides what seems to be a great future for NVAX.

I'd not want to buy on margin and/or put too much of my cash into NVAX. Yet, putting 10% of my investments into NVAX looks very reasonable considering the potential pay-off."


stockalias,

I believe David stated that NVAX is a "speculative" play because of it's unusual recent  gain/volume activity, thus not "trendable."

David Randolph is a strictly "technical" trader and will probably stay out until the stock is "trendable" again.

I believe NVAX is a "speculative" play for the near future because so much of its gain/loss activity will depend heavily on the frenzy related to the spread of Avian flu and the recent media/government response.

If we did not have the Avian flu issue right now, I believe NVAX would have "trended" on a climb more traditional to a company that is doing the "right" thing to grow and improve their market position.

But the Avian bird flu is in our face right now and we must be very cautious.  If the high risk of volatility of this stock worries you, you shouldn't be trading this stock.  That's why I believe David Randolph decided to sit this one out for "now."

"IMHO, always do your own DD (research - due diligence)"

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB today:

Good to have your support gunboat1919,

BUT I WANT EVERYONE TO KNOW THAT NVAX FOR THE NEAR FUTURE (DURING AVIAN FRENZY GOVERNMENT/MEDIA RESPONSE NEXT WEEK) IS A VERY "SPECULATIVE" PLAY!

Do not buy NVAX on "hope, hype, or the greed that it will hit $6 any time soon"

Only buy NVAX if you realize the "RISK" of this volatile market/stock trend for Avian plays!!!

My guess is that it may go down to $3 before it rebounds, unless there is a tremendous bullish buying demand that will push the stock price to rebound, overcoming the sellers' bearish pressure.

If that does happen, then we may see a spiking rebound, which I am "gambling" on and the risk I am willing to take.  I WILL SELL on Monday morning if I do not see this bullish buying pressure.

So = BE WARNED! =

Those that understand the risks and the often "emotional" market trend swings (panic selloff, for one) and willing to "endure" Monday morning market open after $6 down to $3.59 fall, I admire your "something"

Those that took profit above $4-$5 range and bought back sub-$4, especially around $3.50, great!  = High Five! =

Let's roll on Monday!  Have your buy/sell buttons handy, it may be exciting or ugly.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Thanks schatzie poo for the link, post from Yahoo MB:

http://www.news24.com/News24v2/Search/n24SearchResults/1,,,00.html?type=news&query=bird+flu+vaccine+developed&imageField.x=15&imageField.y=4

Bird flu vaccine developed
27/10/2005 14:00  - (SA) 
Falk AdSolution

Brussels - European scientists have developed a vaccine for a strain of avian flu known as H7N1 which can spread from birds to humans, but is not judged as dangerous as the H5N1 strain that has killed people in Asia.  More...


schatzie poo,

There are many manufacturer that make the annual flu vaccine.

As such, there will be many that will make the vaccine for the Avian virus (the many strains)

Just because you are one the many players doesn't mean you are out of the game.  Besides, vaccine development is a "small" part of Novavax's overall operations.

By the way, according to the article, "The risk of H7 emerging as a pandemic influenza strain is considered to be lower than H5N1," the EU said in a statement.

"Nonetheless, it is expected that the H7 FLUPAN research will be a valuable resource for pandemic vaccine development in the future."

So, they DID NOT develop a vaccine for the H5N1 European strain of Avian virus.  Besides, even they do, will they have the surge capacity and the production process to mass produce the vaccine?  Well, Novavax does.  And they ARE working on the H5N1 European strain as we speak.  And yes, they do have the surge capacity and the production process to mass produce the vaccine, once an effective "immunogenic" vaccine IS developed.

Besides, Novavax is the only one that has proprietary adjuvant Novasomes that will allow Novavax to develop a single dose Avian vaccine that is strong enough to provide immunogenic protection. Current vaccines require a second shot in 30 days.

[kpunarc]

What'ya think about this? Seems like they're moving their HQ to philly out of columbia.

http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2004/08/23/story2.html

[LiveLife]

Thanks ggekko558 for the post from Yahoo MB:

http://stock-market-alerts.com/

NVAX Gets Brought Back to Earth

October 31, 2005 @ 3:38 am · Filed under General Alerts

We talked about NVAX earlier in the week. NVAX made a pretty nice run from $2 up to about $6 when the whole "bird flu" thing started to make the news. NVAX has an avian flu vaccine that they are working on, which is why the stock attracted such interest throughout the week. Volume was huge, and the stock was trading very strongly. But then, the stock changed directions, and fell from a close of $5.53 on Tuesday to a close of $3.59 on Friday. What happened?

First off, daytrader interest seems to be waning in the stock. Over 50 million shares traded on Tuesday; by Friday, this number was down to 25 million shares. A 50% drop in volume for a stock such as this is bound to cause problems.

Also, on Thursday it was announced that some NVAX convertible bond holders were converting six million dollars worth of convertible notes into 1.05 million shares of NVAX at a conversion rate of $5.68. This add to the number of shares outstanding, and will inevitably lead to a decline in the share value, as more shares hit the market.

Can NVAX remain in favor of the daytraders? NVAX will be a very news driven stock for the next month or so. If the company announces news, or if the bird flu continues to dominate headlines, then NVAX should continue to be in play.

[LiveLife]

Good morning everyone!! (LOL, daylight savings...it's 4:30 am, but my body thinks 5:30 am and I am up!)

All the Asian markets carried Friday's bullish rally and so did the European markets!!!

So, today looks to be another follow up on the Bullish return of the historical November - January "BULL MARKET"

If this is the case, then those that cashed out of the last few "bearish" months WILL BE BUYING and you can bet they've been busy screening stocks that were heavily discounted recently (Aha! like NVAX $6-$3.50!!!)

So, be ready for new buyers' demand on the market this morning.

= I looked at more charts this morning and there is good argument for NVAX retracing downward before it rebounds =

But David already said NVAX for now is not "trendable" so unless there is a BIG selloff activitiy, I am going to ride out any small selloff, to be followed by what looks to be a MASSIVE BUY activity. The MB (Yahoo and 3SOF) was "Hopping HOT" the entire weekend!!! It never went dead...it went on 24/7!!! 3SOF NVAX board had over 1,000 views in one day!!! That's more than what an average 3SOF MB thread gets in its life!!!  That's an amazing traffic!!!

So, I am very bullish for NVAX this morning.

Be careful everyone this morning!