SWIR

[PerfectSage]

Should get up to US$13 / CDN$17.50 pretty fast.  

[dwest718]

I've been following this thing for 9 months now and i finally feel confident enough to post something about it.  Sierra Wireless is a Canadien company that does business in wireless broadband and other wireless communications.  They have huge market share in Canada and Asia and solid share in North America with some exposure in Latin America and Europe.  They just announced three fairly large deals.  The largest was one with Lenovo, an Asian laptop maker.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050921/215843.html?.v=1

The other two were smaller deals with Cingular and Manx Telecom. 
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051031/316186.html?.v=1
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051024/245914.html?.v=1

SWIR had management problems (bad management led to loss of major deals with Palm) earlier this year and fell from 45 to 6.  They have been turning over management and working on relations with a whole bunch of companies.  Very strong earnings recently (surprised by .10) and working on turning profitable again.  Plus a great trend with solid support at around $10.75-10.80.

SWIR is in a trading range right now with strong support at $9.80 and strong resistance at just under $12.00.  Recently, the 50dma crossed above the 200dma.  Possible macd pushing over 0 could mean a push through resistance.  Then, this thing will gap to 15 very quickly (resistance from before huge drop to single digits).

[dwest718]

Alright here's one of the charts I promised.  I'll get the other one up soon.

[dwest718]

I guess I need to set price targets...

Since all news has been worked into this price... and there is only a small possibility of a deal with Dell and little expectation of that, any major deal like that will push this into low 20's (usd) in 48 hrs.  However... I feel that the highest this will go before next quarter's earnings is around 15 (usd).  It has set up a very strong support around $9.8 or $10 so will not fall more than 10% but I think this thing will break out on any news and go up to 15.  Then, depending on deals or operations, if SWIR shows improvement and guides towards profitability next yr... we could see another jump.

So:
$15 is my 1 to 2 month target
$25 is my 4 month target

I dunno now that I'm lookin at my posts... should this be on long term picks?  I think we could have some good short term action but long term this thing looks really good too... what do y'all think?

[dwest718]

Looks like SWIR is coming to the end of an ascending triangle.  We even had a pennant formation intraday... This thing needs a breakout in the next 2 days in a big way and we could see it.  If it does go... it'll head up to 15 very quickly.  Otherwise could fall to support around 11 or even 10.  Tomorrow and Thursday are key though!  Keep an eye on it.

[dwest718]

This thing is breaking out of the ascending triangle today!  Up 9% on more than double avg. volume.  It's the breakout I was looking for.  Should fill the gap to 15 quickly... probably by Wednesday next week or maybe even by Tuesday.  Here's the old long term chart.  I'll get the updated breakout chart up by the end of the day unless one of y'all wants me to put it up now.

[setravis]

Nice pick dwest ! Applaud your work.
From looking at the 3 month chart.Looks like a breakout from,
Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern has formed. Just IMHO of course.
Also had crossover of the 50-day/200-day EMA (The Golden Cross) back in the middle of October.
Earnings have been up for the last 3 quarters.

Support @ $11.46...11.07...10.34
Resistance @ $11.80
MACD is Bullish
Stochastic is bullish

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
10.05%above 13-day EMA
20.10%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $289.62 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: -0.856 
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

[dwest718]

Thanks setra for puttin the chart and TA up for me.  Just a few comments of my own:

The strong close and the 3-4 times normal volume today suggests that this breakout could very easily lead higher.  SWIR looked like it might close off of its highs but then in the last 15 minutes of trading it ran up another 2.5%. 

RSI indicating slightly overbought but SWIR has a gap to fill to 15 now that it has broken 12.25.  Strong MACD that's bouncing higher.

[dwest718]

This chart shows a long term view of SWIR with my sell targets circled (15.94 and 22.44).  I'm liking the volume by price charts calven is using so here's my shot at one.  I drew in the strong supports and the strongest near term resistance based on the volume by price.  Remember this thing went to 45 last year y'all.

[calven]

Remember to put chart setting on LINEAR instead of LOG for price by volume.

You have the right concept... I think a more appropriate trendline would be drawn just above the bottom of the first "price by volume" bar. So im thinkin 14.50 for 1st resistance and 16.00 for second resistance....

[dwest718]

Alright I'll fix it tomorrow... I'm so used to using log  .  Thanks for checkin it out though.  And the 14.50 level makes sense and is what I was looking at before because that is around the top of the gap that SWIR needs to fill.

[dwest718]

Alright I think these charts are better... depending on what time length you look at... there are different resistance levels.  They are drawn in w/ heavy red lines.  Check it out.  My prices targets are still where I said they were before though.

[calven]

Awesome chart work! - Applaud   

[dwest718]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comment/gbs/10253935.html
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comment/gbs/10253768.html

Looks like I have some support from an "expert."   

I'm off of school for the rest of the week so I'll be able to watch the market for tomorrow at least.  I've got to get some research in tomorrow... it's been a while since I've run a scan  .  I was up almost 60% on paper this week ... too bad I didn't have any money to put in  .  ANAD, LTXX, SWIR, and SGTL have been kind.  CYTO and TMTA have kind of sat.

[dwest718]

Alright an updated chart for y'all.  This one is really busy so I'll try to write out what all I tried to put on the chart.  Great breakout from descending triangle last week on good volume.  Trend lines are getting steeper and steeper slope... also more sign for a bullish trend continuation.  RSI not indicating overbought... yet.  Some resistance at 13 from price by volume bar but also from recent price action.  4 solid support levels suggested by the chart (11.00, 11.20, 11.70, 12.20).  Will see 14.50-15.00 range quickly if we can get out of the short term ascending triangle (is that possible?  ) and break through 13.