GNBT.OB

[basonista]

Nice on all posts, Melf!    I think it's time you write a book.  I'll try to come up with some catchy titles for you about investing with the Elf!

I too will have to watch how the rest of this interview process works out this week.  As you have said very well, Gunbutt seems ready to be hired but in checking the references, we are finding some small skeletons in the closet.  The resume looks good in some areas but somewhat questionable in others.

Come on, Gunbutt!  Make us believers!!!

[Melf Elf]

I think it's time you write a book.

Basonista,

You think so?   

I'll try to come up with some catchy titles for you about investing with the Elf!

Yes, let's work on that.

How about "Financial Healf And Wealf With Elf?" 

I'll have my pointy little ears sharpened, for a nice picture for the cover.

And, of course, a serious expression, so that I'll be taken seriously >>> 

After we're #1 on The New York Times Best Seller list, I'll want my own TV program, like Cramer has.  I won't want to do all of that screaming and carrying on that he does, though.   It's too undignified.

I'd prefer to run through the audience, biting the ankles of investors who won't listen to my advice. 

Soon time to see what GUNBUTT is indicating to us.  I'm thinking of hiring him at 1.74 - 1.76, if I can, just above the Basonista Trendline in the Hourly, and just above the minor 1.73 - 1.72 gap.

[Melf Elf]

GUNBUTT is trying to act cute. 

He wanted 1.76 at Friday's close, now he's indicating BID 1.78...ASK 1.82.

If he's still indicating that at the bell, I'll make him an offer at 1.80.  If he'll take it, fine, but his GUNBUTT is fired if I see him at 1.69. 

Risk: a loss of 6.1%.

[Melf Elf]

He wanted 1.76 at Friday's close, now he's indicating BID 1.78...ASK 1.82.

Now indicated at BID 1.78...ASK 1.80, so I guess he doesn't want to work tha-at hard.

I'll lower my offer to 1.79, if that's the indication right at the open.

[Melf Elf]

Bought GNBT at 1.7799    Stop: 1.69.  Risk: a loss of 5.1%

[basonista]

Good luck, Melf!  I'm going to wait a bit and see what Gunbutt tells me this morning.  He seems to expect higher pay but also seems a little reserved in asking for it.    Maybe I'll make a few more reference calls and see what former employers think of him...

[Melf Elf]

Good luck, Melf!  I'm going to wait a bit and see what Gunbutt tells me this morning. 

Basonista,

I don't blame you.

So far, he hasn't gotten any work done.  He went to 1.81, but he's right back to 1.78 where he started work this morning.

He said he needed another cup of coffee.  He's sitting over there sipping it. 

Now he's rolling up a wad of paper.  Sigh...

He better not throw a spit ball at me!   

[basonista]

Hired @ 1.76!  He may not be the model candidate for employment but he has potential. 

Stop also at 1.69, break of support and left shoulder at 1.70.  If he's caught sleeping in the closet or taking long lunches, he's fired!

[Melf Elf]

Hired @ 1.76!  He may not be the model candidate for employment but he has potential. 

Basonista,

Good!  Maybe we can motivate this guy.

If he's caught sleeping in the closet or taking long lunches, he's fired!

We can't even talk about him taking long lunches yet.  He's been on his Coffee Break all danged morning.

The entire work force is slacking off this morning.  NASDAQ is down 22 points. 

Good help is so-o hard to find.

We need a "Grumble Face" on the toolbar.  This will have to do > > >   

[lancefur]

you have been mentioning the risk of loss but based on resistence and potential, what would be a good short term target for upside to look for on this trade?

[Melf Elf]

you have been mentioning the risk of loss but based on resistence and potential, what would be a good short term target for upside to look for on this trade?

lancefur,

Sorry, I should have been more clear, that GUNBUTT's "quota" represents the price target: 

5. Okay, then, let's look at the risk involved in hiring him Monday morning, vs. the reward if he produces, as we expect.

What kind of quota should we expect GNBT to meet for our company?

If GNBT can GET THE JOB DONE, and take out that neckline, he should be able to meet a quota of 2.53, and produce a 42% profit for our business.

Math For The Bullish Inverse H&S pattern:

2.05 - That's where the neckline was when the low of the Head was put in.

1.53 - The low of the Head

2.05 - 1.53 = 0.52 Points

The neckline is roughly 2.01 on Monday, + 0.52 = 2.53 for GNBT's quota.

We're looking at a very nice 1:8 risk:reward, so we probably should consider hiring GNBT for our portfolio.  Let's see what he's indicating to us near the open of business Monday morning.

Targets only are "what we're aiming for," based on a technical breakout of a particular pattern.

Sometimes, they get MADE; other times they don't, or they are exceeded on the upside.

We also can take profits along the way.  For example, take a profit on 25% of the position near 2.00, in case GNBT doesn't break out, and fails right there.

In that example, my gain on that portion of the trade would be 12.4%.

[Melf Elf]

Given the downdraft in today's market, GNBT is performing well, holding above The Basonista trendline (at #3) in the Hourly Chart.

After we connect two lows, it's good information if a stock "tags" that trendline, or holds just above it, as GNBT is doing right here.

That's called a trendline validation, meaning that we're being told, "Yes, the trendline that you've drawn is valid.  It is support."

Now, that can change later on, if GNBT rallies, then goes down and breaks that trendline.  That isn't necessarily fatal, as far as our trade is concerned, but it would be another bit of information telling us that this stock is acting very sloppy, and that we might get stopped out.

On a bad day in the market, like today, if GNBT holds at, or above, this trendline, we can consider that a decent performance.

We might even let him out of work two minutes early, so that he can get a slight jump on traffic. 

And, so that we can determine if his GUNBUTT knows how to run, baby! 

[Draak]

DD!

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/bird-flu/bird-flu-news.php

[Melf Elf]

Tiny Doji Star yesterday, right at the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge.  I liked the fact that GNBT didn't make a lower low than Friday's 1.74 when it easily could have done that in yesterday's down market.

We might get some play today, in sympathy with NVAX, which was up 14% in after hours on news (thanks to cumulina, and applauded).

Unfortunately, if NVAX gaps up 14% at this morning's open, it's marked for a "Gap To Crap," (see my post in the NVAX folder, if interested).  If GNBT is called higher at the open, near our neckline of the "possible" Bullish Inverse H&S pattern, which comes in today right at 2.00, I'll sell 20% of my position, to defend against a possible "Gap To Crap."

For anyone not sure about what a "Gap To Crap" is, look at the December 14 candle on this chart, where GNBT "Gapped To Crap" at 2.04, rallied briefly to 2.07, right at the 50DMA which was at 2.07, and rolling over to the downside.  That was all it had.  GNBT slid for the remainder of the session and closed at 1.89, leaving anyone who bought the 2.04 "Gap To Crap" opening with a paper loss of 7.4%.

If it turns out to be a "Gap And Go," meaning an opening at 2.00, right at the neckline, and then a sustained rally all day to say, 2.15, or 2.20, or 2.25, that would be lovely.  We'll have our breakout.

Since I wouldn't know which it will turn out to be if we get a 2.00 opening, I go ahead and take some profits on the opening gap, to defend against the "Gap To Crap" possibility, as I said, because those often come down very quickly.  T

The high gets made right at the open, or often in the first 5-15 minutes of trading, then players recognize what's going on, they all head for the exits at the same time, and the stock swoons.

SIGA the other morning would be a good example of that.  It gapped up to 4.16 and MADE the 4.09 target IN PLAY, rallied briefly to an early session high at 4.22, then slid all day into a close of 3.76.

Anyone who bought the "Gap To Crap" opening of 4.16 was down 9.6%%, on paper, at the close.

Miserable. 

[Draak]

Gap filled at $1.76!