Post your pick HERE (4th Edition)

[Ramsburg]

Stock Picking Contest (4th Edition - From 6/March/2006 to 10/Apr/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
(Ticker & Name of the Company)

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 50 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

Important: Do not use this thread to another purpose rather than submitting your stock pick. For organizational purposes, any reply that is not a stock pick will be deleted.

[echo]

My Pick:

HOM (Home solutions of America)


Hom is set to report earnings and if indications are correct it will be al good for HOM. They raised guidance for '06 several times last year and there hasn't been any negative news. They have been hush hush lately and the stock is beginning to move. That tells me that the earnings report is going to be a good one and the stock will move up further. I'm hoping for a price in the high 7s for march. If that happens I should do pretty good in the contest. I also own HOM in my portfolio incase anybody wonders.

[MarketRonin]

My Pick:

NNSR  Nanosensor Inc

Company looks very promosing!! Looks to be very oversold as of 2/22 for no reason at all, should return to previous range of .33 to .45 soon and then move up from there. If you notice a bullish harami formed on 2/24 but the white candlestick was to long, thus the reliabiity for a reversal was lowered, I suspect a bullish morning star is forming as of 3/1 then this would be a true reversal and would be a strong indication of an uptrend.

***** MSG from Ramsburg *********************
No pennies on this contest, please read the rules
*******************************************

[netfishmademerich]

1)   GIGM - GIGAMEDIA LTD (NasdaqNM:GIGM)

2)   Former 3SOF Short Term portfolio pick that produced a 65% return.  Current 3SOF Long Term portfolio pick.  The stock has a good base at $4.50 put in and has been consolidating around this base for about 2 weeks.  I believe they will announce Q4 results during the time frame of this contest and provide quidence for '06 which will include results from their recent Fun Town aquisition.  I believe this will provide a catalyst to move the stock out of the base.  This pick of GIGM in this edition of the contest may just become a case of "the right place, at the right time".  My only hope is that any move in this stock not happen until after this contest begins.  Hee heee

3)   Stock Chart

[cjm]

NVAX - Novavax Inc.

This stock is widely followed on this board. NVAX is one of many companies that are planning on creating a vaccine for use in case of a bird flu pandemic. Few days ago Kleiner Perkins invested $12.5 million in the company. Kleiner Perkins has a track record of investing in companies with great potential. Some of their early investments were in companies like Google, AOL, Amazon.com, Netscape etc. With additional funding coming from Congress in the near future, I think NVAX will be one of the beneficiaries.

[AussieTrader]

My picks in these comps so far have sucked big time So here comes another kiss of death....

1) eDiets DIET

2) Company is undervalued relative to opportunity. This year they introduced a new food delivery progam (as widely discussed in this community, e.g 1reilly experiment) called Fresh Cuisine. Whilst this introduction will have no bearing in current financials, the guidance and update on it will. The chart is hovering close to all time highs with support from moving averages close by. Any half decent news on Fresh Cuisine success and opportunity  will move this through the $8 barrier for good.

3) Chart

[njshiva]

My pick :

1) Sciclone Pharma(scln)

SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat life-threatening diseases. Its products include ZADAXIN is in phase 3 hepatitis C virus clinical trials, as well as in other late-stage clinical trials for the treatment of hepatitis B virus and certain cancers. The company also develops SCV-07, which is in preclinical studies, for the treatment of viral and other infectious diseases. The company sells its products primarily in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. SciClone Pharmaceuticals was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California


I played this one around 5-6 range before it got hit hard in Dec'05 due to their lackluster phase III results of their core product  ZADAXIN . The recent Q4 results show that they have great demad for ZADAXIN in china and 91% of their sales from the drug is from china.
Also, insider are buying.

Press Release Source: SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc.


SciClone Reports Results for Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005
Wednesday March 1, 6:30 am ET


SAN MATEO, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 1, 2006 -- SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NasdaqNM:SCLN - News) today reported results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2005. For the fourth quarter 2005, revenues from the sale of ZADAXIN®, SciClone's lead product, increased by 22% to $7,314,000, compared with revenues of $5,985,000 reported for the fourth quarter 2004. For the full year ended December 31, 2005, product revenues increased by 22% to $27,842,000, compared with product revenues of $22,765,000 for 2004. The increase in product revenues for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2005 is primarily attributable to an increase in the quantity of ZADAXIN sold to the China market, which accounts for approximately 91% of overall ZADAXIN sales.
ADVERTISEMENT


Net loss for the fourth quarter 2005 totaled $1,625,000, or $0.04 per share, a decrease of 30% from the net loss of $2,355,000, or $0.05 per share, for the fourth quarter 2004. For the full year ended December 31, 2005, net loss was $7,713,000, or $0.17 per share, a 42% decrease from the net loss of $13,278,000, or $0.30 per share, for the full year ended December 31, 2004.

"We are pleased with the increasing trend in sales of ZADAXIN to China, a market where ZADAXIN is approved for hepatitis B and is used extensively in the oncology and intensive care settings," said Ira D. Lawrence, M.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. "As we continue in 2006, we intend to build on our strong reputation in China by devoting additional resources to expand our product offerings and our development and regulatory capabilities in that market. At the same time, we continue to advance our clinical pipeline. We expect additional ZADAXIN melanoma results later this year and we expect to meet with regulatory authorities to finalize plans for phase 3 trials. In addition, we plan to initiate a phase 1 study evaluating oral formulations of SCV-07 in the second quarter of this year and to begin phase 2a studies for SCV-07 starting in the second half of this year."

Contract revenue for the fourth quarter 2005 was $90,000 compared with $134,000 for the fourth quarter 2004. For the full year ended December 31, 2005, contract revenue totaled $492,000, compared with $1,631,000 for the full year ended December 31, 2004. Contract revenue for the full year ended December 31, 2004 included a $1,000,000 milestone payment from Sigma-Tau, SciClone's European marketing and development partner for ZADAXIN.

Research and development expenses for the fourth quarter 2005 totaled $3,213,000, a 28% decrease from $4,442,000 for the fourth quarter 2004. Research and development expenses for the full year ended December 31, 2005 were $14,406,000, a 20% decrease from $17,994,000 for the full year ended December 31, 2004. These decreases are mainly attributable to the reduction in expenses associated with SciClone's U.S. phase 3 hepatitis C trials.

General and administrative (G&A) expenses for the fourth quarter 2005 were $1,944,000, a 51% increase from $1,289,000 for the fourth quarter 2004. G&A expenses for the full year 2005 were $7,457,000, an 18% increase from $6,311,000 for the full year 2004. The increase in the fourth quarter 2005 was due to higher salary expenses, increased legal costs and accounting fees, and a reversal of a bad debt expense of $186,000 that lowered G&A expenses in the fourth quarter of 2004. The increase in G&A expenses for 2005 are primarily attributed to increased legal costs, and accounting fees, and the expensing of stock price-based options.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $42,256,000 at December 31, 2005, compared with $49,524,000 at September 30, 2005 and $51,299,000 at December 31, 2004. Part of the decrease in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments is attributable to the repayment of a $4 million convertible note in December 2005.

Financial Guidance for Full Year 2006

Based on SciClone's current plans for operations and clinical development, the Company estimates that revenues from the sale of ZADAXIN for the full year 2006 will increase to approximately $32,000,000 driven primarily by continued growth in sales to China. Research and development expenses for the full year 2006 are estimated to be approximately $14,000,000 as new programs are advanced as described above and below. Net loss for the full year 2006 is estimated to be approximately $6,100,000, or $0.13 net loss per share.

In January 2006, the Company adopted Financial Accounting Standards Board Statement No.123 (revised 2004), "Share-Based Payment" (SFAS 123R) requiring share-based payments to employees and directors, including grants of stock options, to be recognized in statement of operations based on their fair values. Including SFAS 123R related charges, the Company estimates research and development expenses for the full year 2006 to be appoximately $14,800,000, and net loss for the full year 2006 to be approximately $8,900,000, or $0.19 net loss per share. SFAS 123R related expenses will be non-cash charges.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at year-end 2006 are estimated to be approximately $29,000,000 including the repayment of $1,600,000 of convertible notes in March 2006.

Recent Clinical Development Highlights

SciClone recently completed phase 1 single and multi-dose escalation studies and achieved positive results demonstrating that SCV-07, its second drug candidate, appears to be safe and well tolerated in healthy volunteers. SCV-07 was administered subcutaneously in varying dose levels up to a dose of 1 mg/kg, approximately one thousand times the dose level utilized in a proof-of-concept tuberculosis trial in Russia, without any dose-limiting adverse effects.

Based on promising data from pre-clinical studies that demonstrated the oral bioavailability of SCV-07 in an animal model, SciClone plans to initiate a phase 1 clinical trial evaluating two oral formulations of SCV-07 in healthy volunteers in the second quarter of 2006. If this study yields favorable results, SciClone believes that the availability of an oral formulation of SCV-07 would considerably broaden the development opportunities for SCV-07. Additionally, based on pre-clinical data that suggest SCV-07's utility in a variety of clinical settings including viral and infectious diseases, SciClone intends to initiate phase 2a studies with the subcutaneous formulation of SCV-07 starting in the second half of this year.

Update on Mediation with Schering Plough KK (SPKK)

As part of the mediation process, SciClone and SPKK have exchanged and are exchanging certain information and are discussing issues for resolution. The mediation is expected to conclude by the end of March 2006. Should SciClone and SPKK be unable to come to a mutually satisfactory and fair resolution by the end of the mediation, it is expected that binding arbitration would commence soon thereafter.

Conference Call

SciClone will host a conference call at 11:30 a.m. ET (8:30 a.m. PT) today, Wednesday, March 1, 2006. The call will contain forward-looking statements. Financial and statistical information to be discussed in the conference call will be posted on the investor relations section of SciClone's web site at www.sciclone.com prior to the commencement of the conference call.


DATE:       Wednesday, March 1, 2006


1) Chart

[la-onda]

1) BNT
Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company. It focuses on developing, licensing, and sale of generic and branded pharmaceutical products and active pharmaceutical ingredients, and the manufacturing of pharmaceuticals for others; and research, development, and licensing/commercialization of advanced drug delivery technologies and pharmaceutical products. Bentley pharmaceuticals manufactures and markets approximately 120 pharmaceutical products for various dosage strengths and product formulations of approximately 30 chemical entities in four primary therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, neurological, and infectious diseases; as well as markets over-the-counter products.

2)
BNT Citigroup Healthcare Conference Presentation (33slides):
http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/citigroup/healthcare06/45303595.cfm

3)
Latest news:
Bentley announces score of Spanish generics approvals
Tuesday , February 28, 2006 11:18 ET
Feb 28, 2006 (Datamonitor via COMTEX) -- Bentley Pharmaceuticals saw its shares rise by around 6% after announcing that it had received 12 marketing approvals in Spain for its generic versions of Forest Laboratories' Celexa, Merck & Co's Proscar and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Pravachol. Bentley received approval to market a 30mg generic version of depression drug Celexa (citalopram) in Spain through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Laboratorios Rimafar and Laboratorios Davur, and a branded-generic version of the 30mg dosage level of citalopram through its Laboratorios Belmac subsidiary. The branded version is marketed under the Belmac trade name Somac. Bentley also received approval to market a 5mg generic version of Proscar (finasteride) in Spain through Belmac, Davur and Rimafar. Finasteride belongs to a class of type II 5 alpha-reductase inhibitors used in the treatment of enlarged prostate glands. In addition, Laboratorios Rimafar and Laboratorios Belmac each received approvals to market generic-equivalent and branded versions of pravastatin in 10mg, 20mg and 40mg tablets.
Finally, Bentley received approvals for a generic version of heart drug Pravachol (pravastatin) in 10mg, 20mg, 40mg and 80mg dosage levels, for which Laboratorios Davur gained marketing rights in October 2005. "These approvals strengthen our portfolio and underscore our success in advancing our pipeline, both in Spain and in other European countries," noted John Sedor, Bentley's president. "These latest approvals follow the 51 we received over the past 12 months, including 30 approvals in Spain and 21 in other EU countries."

4) Major holders:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=BNT

5)
Always discussed in detail with Michael in his BNT board:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=621.new#new

6)
CC on March 8th will be positive, shorts will be squeezed:

BNT: Short Interest UP 33.7% to 2.9M in Feb 2006
Wednesday, February 22, 2006 17:46 ET
According to new short interest data from NYSE, short interest for Bentley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE: BNT) INCREASED 33.7% to 2,892,167 shares for the month ended mid-February, 2006.

SYMBOL      JANUARY        FEBRUARY          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
BNT            2,162,869       2,892,167        +729,298       +33.72%           5

Based on BNT's 20-day average daily share volume of 614,425, it would require approximately 5 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

charts & additional infos:

[shipman]

Ivan Again.
        Tons of good setups this time around that I had a very hard time trying to decide.  Many of them on my radar forever.  I picked Ivan last time based on it's volume/price spike and filled at 2.79.  Other reasons were their heavy to light oil technology, their presence in Calif. and China.  Since then the Calif. deep well kinda took a crapo.  But, on the other hand they have seemed to consolidate their position in China. 
         I "feel" oil in general is going to have a blow out rise through the next month due to international tensions, ending sometime during first part of April with buying capitulation.  Then slide into the northern hemisphere driving/industrial season (don't want to get all the consumers too upset).
         Technically Ivan has had a golden cross of late, macd seems to be going positive, and the rsi has room to rise.  I'm particularly glad that there wasn't a strong gain on Friday ( though it appeared there would be), traders abandoned it late day.  If they hadn't brought it down I would have made a different pick.   This bodes well for a good fill on Monday morning.  I anticipate that the speculation will come back next week. 
         So I'm stickin with it, thinkin' that with a little more time the same pick should make it's run.  Any close above today's will be a positive sign and give a target of 3.19.  Any close above that, well then , 4.25 would be the sell target.  Today's close is the highest in more than a year.  So if you are holding Ivan, sell it before the open so I can get a good fill.  I have no funds, only fun on this one.

[getamail]

MBAY

Something is going on with 4 days huge volume. Float is only 8.93M (from Yahoo).

************ MSG from Ramsburg ****************
Pick not valid, please read the Rules
*********************************************

[miris]

mbay

the relevant news is this:

"TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 07, 2006 8:31 AM
Feb 07, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- MediaBay, Inc. (MBAY) today announced that in an effort to maximize shareholder value and further capitalize on the company's proprietary content and evolving digital distribution business, MediaBay has retained MediaTech Capital Partners to assist the company in reviewing and possibly executing a variety of strategic options available to the company."

Last 4 days mbay doubled with enormous volume.....maybe someone "knows"
sma 100 is gone.....next step sma 200, jmho

don't forget
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.993

[madge20]

TGB  Taseko Mines Ltd
Engaged in gold and copper mining .. I expect production numbers to increase for the company especially in Copper and the prices of both metals prices to continue move up in the short term..

chart below

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tgb,uu[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G

************ MSG from Ramsburg ****************
Pick not valid, please read the Rules (word count)
*********************************************

[dhiraj19]

Stock Picking Contest (4th Edition - From 6/March/2006 to 10/Apr/2006)

To Submit your Stock Pick, reply to this Topic following the Standard Layout:

1)   Stock Pick
My pick is AZK.  AURIZON MINES LTD

2)   Reason behind this pick
(a Text with at least 50 words, featuring the reasons of your stock pick)
Company Summary: Aurizon Mines, Ltd. operates as a gold mining company with operations, development, and exploration activities in the gold producing Abitibi region of north-western Quebec. It owns a 100% interest in the Casa Berardi property located approximately 95 kilometer north of the town La Sarre in the province of Quebec. The company was incorporated as 343318 B.C., Ltd. in April 1988 and changed its name to Aurizon Mines, Ltd. in August 1988. Aurizon Mines is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
The company is involved in gold mining and has an upcoming mine in next quarter which will provide it lot of gold with profitable streak.
Last news:
"Aurizon management are very optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise," said Ian Walton, Aurizon's CFO. "However, it is prudent for us to protect any potential downside in the price of gold from unforeseen market forces. The program that we have implemented provides protection that future operating cash flows are available to service the project debt, should gold prices decline, without giving away the Company's participation in the upside potential for gold and the Project."
Casa Berardi continues to progress on budget, on schedule and to design specification. The production shaft at the West Mine is currently at a depth of 500 metres and the ramp has reached the 690 metre level. On surface, the headframe, hoist room and associated infrastructures are complete, while major components of the mill refurbishing and modifications are in progress. More than 300 people are currently active on site. The project is currently expected to produce 1,092,000 ounces from 4.8 million tonnes of ore over the initial 6.2 year operating plan, based on current mineral reserves. Additional resources comprise 2.7 million tonnes of indicated resources with an average grade of 5.1 grams of gold per tonne and 5.6 million tonnes of inferred resources averaging 6.5 grams of gold per tonne. Drilling activities are on-going with three underground drill rigs and four surface drill rigs currently in operation.
Commercial production at Casa Berardi is expected to commence in the fourth quarter of this year at an average rate of 175,000 ounces of gold per annum. At a gold price of US$550 per ounce, and an exchange rate of 1.15, the project would have an estimated total cash cost of US$240 per ounce, an internal rate of return of 47% and an estimated payback of approximately 2 years.
AZK trades above a $1.00 and more than av volume of  200K.


The momentum is built-in as you can see from the charts below.

3)   Stock Chart
(Click in additional options, browse for your chart file GIF/JPG/PNG and add it to your post, if you don't have a Charting software, we suggest you copy a chart from www.stockcharts.com)

[Gu$tavo]

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX [ADR])

Ternium is a Luxembourg-based steel producer which operates in Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico,  this allow them to trade within ALCA. MERCOSUR & others

Tips..

Starting February 1, 2006 Ternium SA began trading in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

-Ternium's IPO priced @ $20 per ADS (now @ $23.95)

-Ternium's steel manufacturing and finishing facilities have an annual production capacity of about 11.6 million tons. The company sells its wares primarily to clients in North, Central, and South America, and it is developing a sales presence in Asia and Europe as well.

-Steel demand in our primary markets was strong in 2005, achieving growth rates above the world average, a pace that is expected to continue this year," according to the company statement. (01/03/2006)

[eliteG]

The Pick: ANX - Adventrx Pharmaceuticals Inc.

More about the company
yahoo finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ANX
company website:  http://www.adventrx.com

The reason:

I've been following the chart of ANX for a long time now... ever since I believe saffeysite(a great 3sof poster..not sure where he is?) brought it up.  He said something like doctors are talking about this stock and investing in it.. so that gave me enough interest to look at the chart.  I feel like there is a lot of power in ANX because of the kind of volume it has and the way the price acts.  A great uptrend as indicated by the 200sma(a slow ma) sloping up but I still believe its got some crazy pop in it...

I dont know a great deal about its business except that I like what they are doing.  Anti-Viral and Anti-Cancer research.  They seem to be doing well in "development" on these fronts so that could lead to huge price movement like CELG and DNA.

But what seems very interesting to me..as well as sneaky.. is that ANX is an avian flu play as well.  Check it out: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060131/latu067a.html?.v=1

So I notice safety in the chart from the 50sma and the bullish trend.  I see ANX in a consolidation phase close to the big number 5.  So maybe it will breakout before the contest is over.  That breakout would be closing over 5... last March was the start of a great uptrend 

Goodluck to everybody.    Let the good times roll.

The Charts: