VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

lazard update ??

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=68078

[la-onda]

VPHM update:
ViroPharma to Host Conference Call to Discuss Clinical Results of HCV-796
Thursday November 10, 12:47 pm ET

EXTON, Pa., Nov. 10, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today announced that the company will host a conference call and live audio webcast today at 4:30 p.m. to discuss the results of the Phase 1b study with HCV-796, an orally dosed hepatitis C (HCV) viral polymerase inhibitor with the potential to interfere with the replication of HCV, that is being co-developed with Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, a division of Wyeth.

During the conference call, ViroPharma management will discuss the results, and answer questions regarding all areas of the business.

The live webcast of the conference call will be accessible via ViroPharma's corporate website at http://www.viropharma.com. An audio archive will be available at the same address until November 24, 2005. To participate in the conference call, please dial 800-391-2548 (domestic) and 302-709-8328 (international). After placing the call, please tell the operator you wish to join the ViroPharma investor conference call.

[KCScott]

nice link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09viro.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5035&en=adf5a202dfaba496&ex=1217912400&partner=MARKETWATCH

over reaction IMO 

any feedback from TA experts?

The price action in VPHM caught my eye today - I have no position in this stock right now

My thought on this article is it's a psychological catalyst to the herd to sell.

Joe investor/trader  will ignore all the positives mentioned and instead focus on this:

In a survey of 44 doctors conducted in September by Lazard, more than two-thirds said the price increases would not cause them to reduce the use of Vancocin and nearly half said they expected to increase their use in the next 12 months.

But some doctors say their hospitals avoid paying for Vancocin by having patients swallow a generic intravenous form of vancomycin. While its unpleasant taste can cause nausea, some doctors say the two forms of the drug are essentially the same.

Dr. August J. Valenti, director of epidemiology and infection prevention at the Maine Medical Center, said this method saves $600 a treatment. His hospital took infection control measures after the number of cases of C. difficile began rising in 2002. "We were beginning to see far more relapses, and relapses after relapses," Dr. Valenti said.

New drugs aimed at C. difficile, as well as a vaccine, are now in development by various companies, and some experts say they are needed. Genzyme is in the final phase of clinical trials of tolevamer, which works by binding and immobilizing the toxins produced by the bacteria. Because tolevamer is not an antibiotic, Genzyme hopes it will reduce relapses. Others developing drugs include ActivBiotics, Oscient Pharmaceuticals, Romark Laboratories, the team of Optimer Pharmaceuticals and Par Pharmaceutical, and the team of Medarex and the nonprofit Massachusetts Biologic Laboratories. Acambis is working on a vaccine.

Henri A. Termeer, Genyzme's chief executive, said Vancocin's price had risen because ViroPharma "looked at it as a single opportunity and they are utilizing it in that sense." But he predicted that once competition arrived, the "tremendous pricing flexibility" that ViroPharma has had "may not be sustainable over time."

Seeing the run up in VPHM has been 500% + YTD and short interest is 13% and growing today, my opinion is this will continue to be pressured short term unless today's CC on the HCV-796 Phase 1b clinical results offers an unforeseen revelation.

As a wise individual one told me "the average individual deals with perception, not reality."

Good Luck 3SOFers

[LuckyFish]

This just off DJ Newswire.  Overblown IMO, but people react to the news.
Brigitte



DJ ViroPharma Falls Amid Fear Of Generic Competition >VPHM

  By Tim Paradis
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

  NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares lost 17.5% Thursday amid apparent concerns, which some analysts contend were largely unwarranted, that generic competition would encroach on sales of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has resuscitated ViroPharma's fortunes and stock price in the last year.
  "I do think that concern is overblown," JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler said Thursday, referring to the sell-off of ViroPharma shares following the announcement by Akron Inc. (AKN) that it had penned an agreement with India's Cipla Ltd. (500087.BY) to develop a generic form of an undisclosed antibiotic used in U.S. hospitals.
  More than one analyst saw Akorn's statement as an oblique reference to Vancocin, which ViroPharma acquired a year ago from Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).
  "I'm not sure that given the current market opportunity and the cost and risks associated with trying to get a generic version approved that it adds up," he said, referring to a market opportunity for generic competition.
  "At worst for ViroPharma, a generic version could be on the market in a few years. In the meantime, they should continue to enjoy growing sales while they are the sole provider of Vancocin," Cutler said. He rates the stock "market outperform" and carries a $28 price target.
  Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, wrote in a research note Thursday that while it appears Akorn and Cipla plan to develop a generic form of Vancocin, such an undertaking might prove difficult.
  "We continue to believe that while the market is attractive, there are high barriers for any entry for such a generic, including manufacturing and the need for clinical studies, which may be difficult to enroll," Sendek wrote. He maintains his sales estimates for the drug.
  Vancocin is used to treat the intestinal bacteria Clostridium difficile, which is often referred to as C. difficile. On Nov. 3, ViroPharma, which has raised prices for the drug several times this year, said it struck an agreement to boost the amount of the drug Lilly makes for ViroPharma. The Exton, Pa., company acquired the U.S. rights to Vancocin from Lilly a year ago.
  Cases of C. difficile have increased in the U.S. in recent years, especially at hospitals where it is often strikes patients whose treatments for other conditions have included courses of antibiotics.
  Earlier Thursday, ViroPharma said preliminary results from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a hepatitis C being co-developed with Wyeth's (WYE) pharmaceuticals unit, demonstrated antiviral effects in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.
  Referring to the results of the trial, Cutler said: "They were net positive and warrant further development."
  On Monday, ViroPharma shares hit a 52-week high of $24.36 after the company said it swung to a profit from a loss in the third quarter and raised its sales forecast for the year. For the third quarter, revenue surged to $35.8 million from $398,000 a year earlier. Vancocin sales totaled a best-ever $35.7 million during the quarter.
  Shares of ViroPharma traded at $18.11, down $3.85, or 17.5%, in 4 p.m. EST Nasdaq trading. Volume stood at 16.1 million shares. Average daily volume is 2.52 million shares.
  The stock has risen from about $3 a share a year ago, beginning its precipitous climb in May.
  Both JMP Securities and Lazard make a market in ViroPharma shares.
  -By Tim Paradis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5294; [email protected]

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  November 10, 2005 16:58 ET (21:58 GMT)
  Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 58 PM EST 11-10-05

[ncham]

we need that moron from Piper to print a retraction. sold last night at 20.8 and bought back in today at 18.74. Back on it's way up, i hope.

[la-onda]

I have listen to the CC, especially the Q&A was awesome.
very detailed answers to analysts and stockholders.
just relisten the CC:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=92320&eventID=1162923


cheers
OLiver

[la-onda]

CC was very detailed with lots of information just listen to it:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=497.new#new

[brandyjoco]

I feel a little nervous right now.  According to TA is it oversold? If so how long before it turns around. I believe this little GEM is worth $28 by Christmas but I feel pretty beat up right now...

Any of you chart readers out there?

[tommyt]

Better News In WSJ tonight:

ViroPharma Falls Amid Fear Of Generic Competition

By TIM PARADIS
November 10, 2005 4:58 p.m.

NEW YORK -- ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) shares lost 17.5% Thursday amid apparent concerns, which some analysts contend were largely unwarranted, that generic competition would encroach on sales of Vancocin, an antibiotic that has resuscitated ViroPharma's fortunes and stock price in the last year.

"I do think that concern is overblown," JMP Securities analyst Adam Cutler said Thursday, referring to the sell-off of ViroPharma shares following the announcement by Akron Inc. (AKN) that it had penned an agreement with India's Cipla Ltd. (500087.BY) to develop a generic form of an undisclosed antibiotic used in U.S. hospitals.

More than one analyst saw Akorn's statement as an oblique reference to Vancocin, which ViroPharma acquired a year ago from Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).

"I'm not sure that given the current market opportunity and the cost and risks associated with trying to get a generic version approved that it adds up," he said, referring to a market opportunity for generic competition.

"At worst for ViroPharma, a generic version could be on the market in a few years. In the meantime, they should continue to enjoy growing sales while they are the sole provider of Vancocin," Cutler said. He rates the stock "market outperform" and carries a $28 price target.

Joel Sendek, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets, wrote in a research note Thursday that while it appears Akorn and Cipla plan to develop a generic form of Vancocin, such an undertaking might prove difficult.

"We continue to believe that while the market is attractive, there are high barriers for any entry for such a generic, including manufacturing and the need for clinical studies, which may be difficult to enroll," Sendek wrote. He maintains his sales estimates for the drug.

Vancocin is used to treat the intestinal bacteria Clostridium difficile, which is often referred to as C. difficile. On Nov. 3, ViroPharma, which has raised prices for the drug several times this year, said it struck an agreement to boost the amount of the drug Lilly makes for ViroPharma. The Exton, Pa., company acquired the U.S. rights to Vancocin from Lilly a year ago.

Cases of C. difficile have increased in the U.S. in recent years, especially at hospitals where it is often strikes patients whose treatments for other conditions have included courses of antibiotics.

Earlier Thursday, ViroPharma said preliminary results from a Phase 1b study of HCV-796, a hepatitis C being co-developed with Wyeth's (WYE) pharmaceuticals unit, demonstrated antiviral effects in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C infection.

Referring to the results of the trial, Cutler said: "They were net positive and warrant further development."

On Monday, ViroPharma shares hit a 52-week high of $24.36 after the company said it swung to a profit from a loss in the third quarter and raised its sales forecast for the year. For the third quarter, revenue surged to $35.8 million from $398,000 a year earlier. Vancocin sales totaled a best-ever $35.7 million during the quarter.

Shares of ViroPharma traded at $18.11, down $3.85, or 17.5%, in 4 p.m. EST Nasdaq trading. Volume stood at 16.1 million shares. Average daily volume is 2.52 million shares.

The stock has risen from about $3 a share a year ago, beginning its precipitous climb in May.

Both JMP Securities and Lazard make a market in ViroPharma shares.

-By Tim Paradis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5294; [email protected]

[AussieTrader]

I stopped trading VPHM a while back and haven't followed it too closely in a while, but wasn't the  last Piper upgrade target $24 (they have been supporting the hell out of it by issuing timely upgrades over the past months).
So it just touched $24 a couple days back after a little run from below $20 and then gave it all back with interest (pre earns gallop also). Sort of self fullfilling really, wonder if Piper were selling off? I know VPHM have had other upgrades but Piper were the most involved as I recall.
Be careful now as this sell off could gain momentum (not that fundamentals have gone bad, far from it).

[la-onda]

Summarization from yahoo board:
[1] the FDA has informed VPHM execs. that ANY "generic" Vancocin will have to go through conventional clinical trials, which means any generic, assuming it can overcome TRADE SECRET manufacturing issues, is a minimum of five years away
[2] HCV-796 dosing frequency is still in flux, no ideal yet established
[3] PK profile improves 40-50% when HCV-796 is given with food, an experiment tried with only two or three patients
[4] dropouts not yet evaluated, but unlikely the dropout had anything to do with HCV-796
[5] Vertex drug also shows a log decrease after 14 days
[6] There is no "magic bullet" anti-viral hep C drug, and it's likely HCV-796 will be part of a combination "cocktail" of anti-virals, used to treat hep C.
[7] Phase 2 will have 8 of every 12 patients on the HCV-796/peg. interferon combo, with 4 patients on peg. interferon alone.

I stronlgy recommend to listen to CC especially the Q&A part.

[brandyjoco]

Thanks, that is a great summarization. I am long VPHM so I was shocked to see the lies posted to the board yesterday.

A few more points about VPHM:
1) 80% of research & dev of HCV-796 is paid for by Wyeth
2) Pleconaril - a cold medicine developed by VPHM was sold to Sclering-plough. It is in phase II for possible ashma treatment. In the future, VPHM will possibly receive milestone payments and royalties.
3) VPHM has $1 of YTD earnings. Therefore a $18 share price equates to 18 P.E., $19 = 19PE. However, based on 2006 revenues it is only about 13 PE or 14 PE
4) Piper Jeffrey has stated that at this time the drug pipeline is NOT included in their price target yet.

This is stock price is very undervalued based upon the fundamentals. I would like to see $28 by Christmas/January conservatively.

[KCScott]

I also listened to the CC and was impressed with how Sr. management addressed the issues.

Also, looking at the ECN this morning was vastly different than those same quotes last night.

I bought in this AM at 18.70 and, while I expect resistance, I could see this going back to 24 within a few weeks.

Based on the surge this AM I'm expecting the many new shorts from yesterday to be quickly covering positions which could accelerate the action.

I'll keep a tight stop 7% just in case I'm wrong.

[Michael]

Hi KCScott,

I managed to get in this morning at 18.67 as mentioned yesterday in the XING thread.

I have to admit that I am going to sell those shares again in the near future. That is very much against my nature (to sell a stock that is so undervalued) but I simply can't justify to have so much money in one stock (not even in VPHM) and I am still holding my core position for a looong time.

The regulares here know that I have bought Viropharma several times. My initial investment was around 4.5. This position (with additions) now represent a significant portion of my total portefolio (more than 30%) and I need to diversify.

The opportunity today was just too good to miss and I am only human 

I think I will start getting back into energy next week.

BTW you should start look at STX (thanks for bringing that one to my attention!)

Mike

[ncham]

i'm out. hit the 50dma and went straight back down.