VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[REALDEALS21]

BUYING opportunity today ?? 

[fill_the_gap]

Added to VPHM $ 9.84.

[JVC689]

Good call. Once it closes above $10.14, it will go some more. A lot of "traders" are stting their buys a little above the last high and dumping for pennies to dimes to quarters to halves depending upon personality.

John

[David Randolph]

VPHM is a no brainer. Hold it as long as it closes above the ascending blue trendline. The stock has an enormous gap to fill on the long term chart at $12.32. This value is a powerful magnet for the stock, I believe.

[Michael]

18-Jul-05
08:48 VPHM ViroPharma target upped to $15 from $7 at Piper Jaffray (9.87 )

"Piper Jaffray raises their target to $15 from $7, saying that prior to 2Q results they are taking this opportunity to revise estimates. Firm notes they had previously used a "worst-case" scenario, but given the recent appreciation in the stock, they believe that publication of a more realistic Vancocin sales and expense trajectory may help investors better understand the potential valuation upside from current levels. Firm raises their Vancocin sales estimates to $29.3m from $24.0m in 2Q05, to $102.3m from $79.7m in 2005, to $125.5m from $87.9m in 2006, and to $139.8m from $100.0m in 2007. Firm changes their EPS ests to $0.05 from $0.15 in 2Q05, to $0.48 from $0.24 in 2005, and to $0.68 from $0.25 in 2006. Reits Outperform."

Can't stop loving this little baby!

Mike

[David Randolph]

Firm changes their EPS ests to $0.05 from $0.15 in 2Q05, to $0.48 from $0.24 in 2005, and to $0.68 from $0.25 in 2006. Reits Outperform."

This is strange Michael, did they lowered the second quarter estimates?

Stock up 8% at the open

Thanks !

[la-onda]

awesome & applaud

[Michael]

Yes I believe this is correct due to the cost of the conversion of bonds.

Viropharma have to pay all the interest for the bonds that has been converted in the quarter the conversion happend. It might sound bad but it is actually great news as you can see on the reaction!

[JVC689]

I am going to stand aside...and if it gets away so be it.

I am not thrilled with the full year estimate...but who knows....I know never sell strong stock! yada yada yada

Current E is 22sh and Forward PE is 16sh

The earnings release as I see it may be anti cliimactic.

John

[Michael]

Hi JVC,

God knows I'm not a strong believer in high PE's but everything is relative. You might want to compare the PE with other Biotech companies with a similar pipeline.

Mike

[JVC689]

You are 100% correct.

But people were throwing numbers around like $1.00 per share for '05 and why is the second half being forecast so low? .....no more derivatives or costs expressed as far as I know.

I may regret it but if I do I will come back in...I do not mind admitting a mistake.

When i see too many people in love with a stock at the message Board of VPHM, I get concerned about my objectivity and forget it is just a stock game.

JVC

[stocky]

Luving a stock is certainly one of the biggest sins of trading.

[eagerlearner]

Hi David. 
with momentum like this , will u sell VPHM at 12.32 as planned?
Keep up the great work!

thanks a lot!

[stocky]

I am also interested in knowing that dave

[Michael]

Luving a stock is certainly one of the biggest sins of trading.

You are right, falling in love with a share is one of the biggest sins of trading. Another one is to sell a share in uptrend too early 

As mentioned previously Viropharma seems cheap compared to other Biotech stocks. Here are the PE values of some of the stocks I remember we have talked about on 3SOF (the list is short as there are very few Biotechs with earnings!):

CELG:    PE ttm:   89    PE 06:   49
DNA:      PE ttm: 107    PE 06:   53
CHIR:     PE ttm: 225    PE 06:   20
IMCL:     PE ttm:   36    PE 06:   19
VPHM:    PE ttm:   21    PE 06:   17

This is just to demonstrate VPHM's low evaluation and doesn't mean that the other stocks are bad investments (on the contrary some of them seems to be excellent picks!)

The only reason I see to sell VPHM now is that it has gone up too much and for me that reason is not good enough.