VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Gurukul]

JVC for traders what matters the most is CHARTS. We all may be less informed, with the exception of guys like Michel, but the big buying going on in VPHM is too much a vote of confidence. I do not have any position in this stock but let me tell you if you calim something then you have to give reference to that source. The doomdsday scenario, though welcome, lacks objectivity unless accompanied by verifiable comments.

I have applauded both you and Michel for starting ViroWars here.

[JVC689]

You convinced me....here is a sampling. And, yes the chart is the thing...until it breaks down...not saying it will...I still hold it.

Here ya go:

http://www.doctorsolve.com/Vancocin/14195.aspx

http://www.vancomycin-oral-capsules.co.uk

Viro wars..... It has anice sound. I thought it was due diligence with a flair. I checked the links and they worked. If anyone has a problem with them, please let me know.

John

[Gurukul]

Thanks JVC.

[Michael]

John,

With your credentials in the pharmaceutical and/or health industry I find it hard to believe you don't understand the information you are trying to convey. In general the members of 3SOF try to inform each other in order to make better investment decisions and I hope your are posting in the same spirit!

You didn't exactly say what the links were meant to show but I assume you post them to show that there are generic competition for Vancocin (as this is what we are discussing). If you post them to give the reader insight into the drug production or show them where they can buy the drug; then I apologize in advance for this post.

Concerning Encap, this company is a subcontractor to the licensed producers of Vancocin Pulvules, the oral capsule formulation of Vancocin. Encap produce the Capsules in which you put the active drug. To use this as an argument for generic competition is the same as saying that Viropharma might face competition from the companies that makes the packaging or printing the labels. (Complete nonsense)

You can read about the company here: http://www.encapdrugdelivery.com/ They might come in handy in your new pharmaceutical venture.

I am also sure you are aware that Viropharma only acquired the right to manufacture, market and sell Vancocin in the US. There are other companies, which have similar agreements with Lilly covering other areas and these agreements regulates the competition between the partners. I am not saying that there will not be spillover from one market to another but to use this as an argument for generic competition is entirely misleading.

I have been a bit more direct in my comments than I normally am, but people here are investing with their own money so it is important that they base their decisions on correct information. As this is a "friendly" forum people might not be as critical to information as they would be if they find it on the Yahoo MB.

I totally respect that we might have different opinions but let us try to base them on facts instead of misinformation.

Finally if you have based your new pharmaceutical venture on this information you might want to revisit your business plan!

[JVC689]

Dear Mike and people folllowing this thread,

Mike, I will not characterize your post as you have mine by punctuation. I am human and delving.

I reluctantly posted the links at the request of Gurukol who desired them...one was Encap, as you know. There are other links but I fear that this is getting too far afield. I was criticised for not posting links and now links I post are extrapolated. The Canada Pharmacy link is not mentioned.

I am in contact with Encap and currently in dialog. I have made no vernture decisions and all is exploratory. I am awaiting call backs from 3 M Pharmaceuticals and one other firm.

I am in contact with the FDA bureaucracy about the IND process for Vancomycin HCL USP

I do not know for sure that there can not be generic competition for Vancocin and there are no absolutes anymore that people know that there can not be a generic. Firms have gotten around "trade secrets" in numerous legal ways.

I am not a neophyte in new ventures or to investing. I have had successes and failures in both and learned from them all. I now look carefully before I leap and never invest more than 3% of my net worth on any situation

I fail to see how my posts have been anything less than friendly. If something came off that way, then I apologize. I may have been tired.

BTW, Vancocin is a trademark and is not being diligently protected.

My DD on VPHM has led me to 3 other potential competitiors for Vancocin besides Vancomycin HCL USP. They are even mentioned by VPHM. One has a product in late Stage ll trials and is superior so far to Vancocin or any other directed to C Difficile.

The information I am trying to convey is meant to be straight forward. Put succinctly, my DD has led me to  potential competition for Vancocin that may be on the horizon. I do not want to be blind sided and thought my information useful for me to make a decision to keep the free stock. I simply shared that. VPHM, by their own reports have lined up another manufacturer for Vancocin and have even stated little intent to manufacture themselves. That is a wise decision given all of the above. It would be foolish to expend moneys for facilities that produce a product,that while growing now because of a hopspital epidemic of carelessness and general non isolation of those infected, may face competition which people tend to downplay.  Likewise, Lilly knew all of the above and obviously decided to move on. It is a good deal for both. But it is not a forever cash cow, that some apparently seem to believe.

VPHM technicals are great. If one bases their investments solely on that, then go with it.

VPHM fundamentals are good now. I am merely trying to look ahead. That is the spirit of my posts on this subject.

I hope I have allayed your fears if you had any. Likewise, I mean no one any ill will.

Sincerely,

John

[David Randolph]

Jesus, what a discussion on VPHM !!! I have to be humble here, I know little, if any, about the company 

The only thing I have is a trading plan. Yesterday the stock closed after hours at $12.19, so there's a good chance today is the day where I'll take my 30% plus profit 

I know many people had greater profits, but for a man that sold too soon and bought back a lot higher I don't think this is a bad play. Anyway, even when I bought for the first time around $6 I was planning to sell when the gap on the long term chart was closed, so the time has probably come.

The stock is so overbought now that I expect severe profit taking after the gap is closed at $12.32. Then I will read some more about the company, specially Michael's and JVC's posts, perhaps they convince me of buying back VPHM again, or not.

Thanks for this discussion, keep the level high ... (fundamental analysts are always more efusive on defending their points of view, a technical analyst doesn't have much to argue, if he's good he knows the market is always right and the market always knows better).

[eagerlearner]

broke 12.5 decisively.   
can i have concensus who's selling who's holidng?
i am holding with a tight stop.
how about u?

Thanks

[puenthouse]

This stock has just gone up up and up, and i bought 5 different times, so i will sell off all my profits and my earlier buys and continue to climb or fall with this stock with my later investments.  besides is that 20.00 target that far off the charts?

[JVC689]

Still holding what I have.

But bought OSCI as a back up. Their Ramoplanin [R] drug for C Difficile is looking good in late phase ll studies vs Vancocin [V]. Stock at $2.50 looks cheap to me. Plus they are rolling out a new drug for upper respiratory illness. Even if comparable, when approved, it will have a market.

2 times a day dose for R v 4 times a day for V gets better compliance.

John

[eagerlearner]

Thanks for the headsup Dr. 
will look into OSCI. what other biotech do u currently own and looking at?
wanna take advantage of  this bull in biotech. 

Thanks!

[jb]

I sold 1/2 my position and bought SCLN. Good luck all!

[David Randolph]

Sold VPHM @$12.32.

31% profit in 7 sessions. Portfolio is up 144% now 

Good luck for those who continue to hold !

[eagerlearner]

Thanks david! way to go!
see this is another thing i need to learn from you , pulling the trigger merciless .
i applaud you !

[jc707270]

Hey david I've been giving you applauds, but wanted you to know this is a GREAT site, and vphm was a excellent pick!! Haven't had much chance until recently to post, I unfortunately have a boss  . But not for long with those picks  .

Good trading

[Michael]

Hey david I've been giving you applauds, but wanted you to know this is a GREAT site, and vphm was a excellent pick!!

Couldn't have said that better.

It is however sad to loose a soldier in the Viro war. I hope you will enroll again in this epic war for ever larger profit for the holders of VPHM 

One more applauds from me - who will give you the number 200!!!!