VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Michael]

VPHM was clearly set to close below the 9 day ema, which was standing at $16.91, so, like it was planned, I sold the stock at an average price of $16.40.

Hmmmm....... To sell VPHM certainly made our portfolio look nice 

Long term I think it is a mistake. August month prescription figures are just out and they are (as expected) at all time high. C-difficile is spreading very rapidly going into the winter. (try to make a google search and read some of the english media!)

It seems like US is ignoring this pandemic. Bad for Americans good for shareholders of VPHM.

Mike

[tommyt]

I guess it's just me and you, Michael. In for the long haul.

[valueseeker]

I didn't sell either. It is actually pretty strong today considering the general market. It's just option expiration on Friday, so it won't go up or down too much till Friday. But Monday it will be up again.

I think we should keep the open stocks as in the % portfolio returns, not just the closed ones.

[Dory99]

Thanks for your work in assessing this stock, Michael.

I first purchased the stock in June @ $5.62 / share and have been purchasing additional shares ("reverse scaling" -picked this up from a book I read - great technique for me ) at each 50% increment in share price increase.

I've profited from David's picks, partcularly DESC, and will subscribe prior to month's end; however, I believe that "staying the course" in a stock like VPHM will greatly inure to our benefit long-term.

[la-onda]

update from yahoo board:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=55867&um=50&.sig=b8m3k0iVFSUJvhgVUU095Q--

I'm adding to a cut and paste so bear with me...

Here is what the Bollinger Bands have looked like so far...

9/1 364.86% wider than normal
9/2 357.35% wider than normal
9/6 341.43% wider than normal (day of breakout that did fail after all...message #54627)
9/7 320.20% wider than normal
9/8 284.66% wider than normal
9/9 234.28% wider than normal
9/12 162.28% wider than normal
9/13 80.95% wider than normal
9/14 63.68% wider than normal

The narrowing did slow down today, as I thought it might. The volume is also still light at 30.69% lower than the 50 day average.

(I posted this last night)
"Here is something I just noticed. There have been 3 successful breakouts since 5/11, right? and 2 failed breakouts...

Of the 3 successful breakouts, the lower Darvas Box and the 20 MA (the default moving average of the Bollinger Bands) have converged.

On 5/26 the Breakout occurred when the 20MA had coverged within .04 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.

On 7/1 the Bounce occurred when the 20MA had converged within less than .08 cents of the Lower Darvas Box. The next day VPHM bounced directly off of the 20MA which resulted in a high volume breakout.

The last successful breakout was on 8/16, when the 20MA had converged to within less than .11 cents of the Lower Darvas Box.

The 2 breakouts that failed were on 8/1 and 9/7 where the width between the 20MA and the Lower Darvas Box were .40 cents and .53 cents.

Right now the 20MA has converged to within 11.6 cents of the Lower Darvas Box...

Tomorrow they will be pretty much right on top of each other...

Some people may be laughing, but it is proven that when two or more support lines converge, it creates a stronger support area."


My post tonight consists of two things. First there was the Bullish Doji that occurred today. (It looked like it was going to happen when I posted message #55798 about 20 minutes before the close with my other account name)
True, there needs to be a confirmation tomorrow for it to be successful.

Second, the convergence of the 20MA and the Lower Darvas Box that has been successful the 3 previous times in the VPHM run-up has HAPPENED AGAIN.

This is why I believe if there was ever a time to have a Bullish Doji, it would be NOW.

I mentioned last night that the 2 should be right on top of each other after today's close.

Well, let me give you the exact numbers.

The Lower Darvas Box sits at $16.33, while the 20MA (default MA for the Bollinger Bands) is $16.3210.
That is less than a penny apart from each other.
That is the support level that VPHM found today.

I can not predict when the breakout will happen. I put down in the VPHM contest that I hoped it would be Monday.
It would not bother me one bit to see VPHM flat the next 2 days. That would bring the Bbands closer than any other day since the the 52 week highs starting taking place.

The less the volatility, the bigger the explosion. The calm before the storm.

So tomorrow I hope to see the exact same thing with VPHM as I did with HRSH today (Post #55410), a confirmation of the Bullish Doji.


it will be interesting to watch what will happen the next days   

[metro]

On log scale chart the stock is now at the trend line so if you are holding it is a decent place for  a stop. I am not so optimistic for a bounce here this time but worth watching for as it is valid place and had reversal candle, The market in general is weak and with options out of the way on Friday - next week could see a general rally that will likely be sold into.

For this stock the lines show next levels of likely reversals though the gap should really not fill. I would  pick 13.45 as the optimum place for a pullback if it drops harder.

[AussieTrader]

Don't have a full link but upgrade this morning:

$17.45 in pre

   
News for ViroPharma Incorporated   
8:07am 09/15/05  Piper Jaffray lifts ViroPharma price target to $24 - MarketWatch.com

[valueseeker]

Looks like VPHM is running away - $17.52 at pre-market, up $1.14.

Piper increased price target to $24 (4 increase in 3 months, to $15, $16, and recently to $18)

Shorts will scramble to cover today & tomorrow.

[metro]

Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought

[valueseeker]

I think I saw on Yahoo MB that Piper themselves were buying shares crazy yesterday after yesterday August sales report (which reported record high sales, albeit supposedly seasonality in the summer months)

[Michael]

Thanks Aussie

I also only have marketwatch notice but excellent news.

Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought

Metro - good observation! As mentioned before this stock is being controlled by Piper Jaffray and they ensures that the uptrend continues in an orderly fashion:

Piper raises EPS from .47 to .85.

What Surprises me is that they only raise the target to 16 when they almost double the EPS estimate but I guess that a 30% increase will do for now. They will still have time to make yet another upgrade 

This doesn't mean that they manipulate the stock. The new target is fully justified by the fundamentals. In fact I find it conservative.

I expect the next upgrade to come either as a result of news from the Pipeline or subscription numbers in October/November which will be higher than their forecast. (unless they significantly has increased their forecast today!)

I am unfortunately off line the coming four days (on Safari) I will try to see if i can find a hotspot on the Savannah bit let me wish every 3SOF's a nice weekend and good luck with your investments if I am not able to check in!

We have several great stocks that should perform nicely in the coming days 

[AussieTrader]

I guess it's just me and you, Michael. In for the long haul.

You can add me to the hold list Tommy

Aussie - isn't interesting how often news or upgrades come right at trend lines or other bounce points - I guess they hold on to them and wait until they bought

Totally agree metro

Thanks for your fundamental notes Michael, contributed to me holding even though the chart was falling over some. Piper Jaffrey certainly are massaging this stock upwards, pays to watch what they do here

[422fwhp]

Rumor Piper increased target to 24!   

[Michael]

Here is a little more info from Briefing.com:

ViroPharma target raised to $24 from $18 on Vancocin upside at Piper Jaffray (VPHM) 16.38 : Piper increases their projections for future Vancocin price increases for 2006-07 to 15% from 5% annually, based on their reassessment of comparable drugs for life-threatening infections. The firm also revises their Vancocin sales ests in response to stronger than expected Aug monthly Rx data. Based on both factors, firm raises their 2005 Vancocin sales estimates beyond the high end of the Street range and raises their 2006-07; firm also raises their 2005-07 EPS ests. Firm raises their tgt to $24 from $18.

Have a great day 

[la-onda]

it´s just awesome