VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Terliso]

David, why'd you sold it? it looks like it's going to hit $48 just like what you said...

[kudzu_ag]

Hello everyone,

I'm a Newbie to this board.  I just thought I would drop by, because someone told me on the Yahoo message board that a couple of people here had cut and pasted a few messages of mine from the board.  (Se7en w/ reply #276, and la-onda w/ replies #289 & 294).

Also I thought it was great that the price target being raised to $24 and the technical picture that I had, hit at the same time...

I just wanted to say hello is all...

[Se7en]

Welcome Kudzu, i'm Barcelonafan on the Yahoo board!

[stocky]

Congrats VPHM holders. I sold yesterday but its ok. It always happens with me and VPHM. Used to it.

[basanlas]

Stocky,

Me too , sold yesterday and almost sh.. myself this morning with the gap up. Oh well had a good run with it,looking for a re entry point now.

Anybody got any advice on a possible pullback price to re enter?

[valueseeker]

I think tomorrow will be last chance to buy around this price as the MM hold it as much as they can so that they don't lose too much on the $17.5 options (Friday's expiration day).

It looks like Piper is leaving itself to increase it's price target again later this year:

----------------------------------
Market Scan
ViroPharma Has 65% Upside For Vancocin Pricing
Peter Kang, 09.15.05, 3:08 PM ET

Piper Jaffray raised the price target on ViroPharma (nasdaq: VPHM - news - people ) to $24 from $18 and said potential price increases for the Vancocin antibiotic drug bodes well for the biotech firm.

"We are increasing our projections for future Vancocin price increases for 2006-2007 from 5% annually to 15% annually, based on our reassessment of comparable drugs for life-threatening infections," said Piper Jaffray.

An analysis of comparable anti-infective agents, Piper Jaffray contended, "suggests there could be as much as 65% upside to current Vancocin pricing." In mid-August, ViroPharma raised the wholesale price of the drug by approximately 22%, its second price increase since acquiring the product rights from Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ) in December 2004.

"With two additional 15% price increases, our new estimates assume the price of Vancocin will reach $1,000 per course by 2007," said Piper Jaffray. "Given the lack of alternatives for the treatment of severe or complicated C. difficile-associated diarrhea, there is the potential that there could be further upside to our new assumptions."

The research firm raised the 2006 and 2007 Vancocin sales estimates to $166 million and $200 million, respectively, from $149 million and $167 million.

In addition, Piper Jaffray said ViroPharma's current share valuation does not price in the company's pipeline. "With Phase I proof of concept data for HCV-796 expected in the fourth quarter of 2005 and maribavir Phase II data expected in the first quarter of 2006, we could justify an expanded multiple in line with biotech peers on positive data for either of these programs," it said.

The firm maintained an "outperform" rating on the stock. "Our price target moves from $18 to $24, which continues to be based on 20 times our 2007 adjusted EPS estimate, discounted at 20%," said Piper Jaffray. "We note that there could be upside to our multiple if progress is made in the pipeline."

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/09/15/viropharma-lilly-eli-biotech-0915market s15.html?partner=yahootix

[AussieTrader]

David, why'd you sold it? it looks like it's going to hit $48 just like what you said...

Hey Terlisa, David had a published exit plan on a close below the 9ema. Therefore he sold as that occured. At that time the chart looked as though it was beginning to fall over. An upgrade from Piper was unexpected and has re-corrected the upward move likely to $24.

Just out of interest, the last gap up on VPHM occured at $12.5 and the stock eventually made a high at $17.95 (the previous Piper target and a $6 move). This gap started at $17.95 and if you add $6 you get at or near Pipers next target of $24. Is this stock being manipulated by Piper? Well yes is the answer, so I'll stay along for then ride as long as Piper do

[jlong]

I only sold a couple hundred because I wanted to diversify more, and I saw piper was buying. They always buy Before an upgrade. Plus i was hesitant until la-londa's post, would like to learn more about those darvas boxes. But from what i was seeing I understand why David sold, who was to know about the upgrade? A profit is a profit and a lot better than a loss. I just started trading about 6 months ago and have more than tripled my investment, but I don't think I could have done it without this board. I'm not wealthy yet, but learning fast....Thanks to all here.

[la-onda]

again yahoo quotation:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=GN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=56395&um=50&.sig=0.tvW9r6Jcg8Wi._zLEqZw--

Honestly I believe the real breakout is yet to come...

This was a breakout, but the Bollinger Bands still narrowed today to 37.50 wider than normal.

If it was a powerful high volume breakout then the bands would be widening.

The high volume is there, the pivot point was cleared. Everything happened that needed to happen, except the bands widening.

The more powerful breakout could still happen on Monday.



what is the comment from TA experts ??
TIA
O.

[Michael]

Is this stock being manipulated by Piper? Well yes is the answer, so I'll stay along for then ride as long as Piper do

Hi Aussie

I was planning to write another long post about:

• the 38% increase in Vancocin prescriptions
• the effect of previous and future price increases
• The couple of blockbuster drugs VPHM has in the pipeline
• How VPHM is going to reduce the dilution from the convertible bonds

but your mail inspired me to simplify things and introduce the PJ wave pattern. This pattern is easy recognizable in stocks that are controlled by PJ. It starts with a rapid increase in the stock price followed by a period of consolidation and then a rapid increase again. This pattern can be repeated indefinitely. VPHM has just entered into the 5th wave 

[stocky]

I am kicking myself for selling this winner 

Have to get back in on Monday

[la-onda]

yahoo board quotation:
Here is what the Bollinger Bands have looked like so far...

9/1 364.86% wider than normal
9/2 357.35% wider than normal
9/6 341.43% wider than normal
9/7 320.20% wider than normal
9/8 284.66% wider than normal
9/9 234.28% wider than normal
9/12 162.28% wider than normal
9/13 80.95% wider than normal
9/14 63.68% wider than normal
9/15 37.50% wider than normal
9/16 36.93% wider than normal
9/19 32.92% wider than normal
9/20 30.67% wider than normal
9/21 23.42% wider than normal

The width of the bands have decreased every day this month...

Volume has decreased for the 4th day in a row... A handle is forming, currently at 4.58% below the 52 week high.

An honest question for the guys who are truly short...

When is the last time you shorted a stock that was consolidating currently within 5% of the 52 week high, that had an ever increasing EPS, whose price target was just raised 33%, who has been told that their product is inexpensive, who is undervalued, who has a low comparive P/E to the industry, whose float is shrinking, and currently whose Bollinger Bands are narrower now than when this run first began?

You don't have to answer, just think about it...
We could still have a few more days of seeing a little red and it still would not make a difference, as long as there is no breakout to the downside.

You shorts are the only ones who have not thrown criticism my way since I have been talking technicals, at least not yet...

You or the guys you work for must know something is up...

&

Re: ***Bollinger Bands Update...
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  09/21/05 09:47 pm
Msg: 57845 of 57863

I caught up to Will Roberts today regarding the clinical trial design for HCV-796. He had previously told me he thought the Phase 1b test is similar to the test for HCV-086. (With HCV-086, there were 96 patients tested, sixteen to a group, 6 groups, roughly 1 group a month. 4 of each group of 16 were given placebos, the other 12 were given the drug. The dosage of the drug was increased with each new group.) He said he wanted to check with Dr. Broom or someone who knew if what he thought was, in fact, true and to call him this week.

When I spoke to him today, he informed me the testing of HCV-796 is very similar to the testing of HCV-086. The testing is a multiple ascending dose trial with 16 members to a group, 4 receiving a placebo, twelve receiving the drug. He did say the number of patients, or groups has not been made public.

The testing could be shorter than it was with HCV-086 since HCV-796 is related to HCV-086 and the safety and tolerability of HCV-086 is well known. Will also said it takes about 14 days to complete the testing. Will Roberts repeated that HCV-796 is 128 times more powerful than HCV-086 and the animal testing data is very compelling. He said that Dr. Broom has said on more than one occasion that HCV-796 is so powerful that if 796 doesn't work, it is because the target is wrong! Evidently, Dr. Broom is very confident of the anti-viral power of the compound. Will said that the results of the proof of concept study for HCV-796 will be released in the 4th quarter.

Will also said that, in addition to the UBS presentation next Monday, VPHM will make a presentation at the annual Infectious Disease Society of America conference the following week in San Francisco. The IDSA conference is being held 10/6/05 through 10/9/05. A review of the programs of the conference indicates C. Difficile, HCV, and CMV will be topics of discussion, abstract presentations, etc.

I think the bollinger bands are narrowing in advance of the news that HCV-796 works! The 4th quarter begins the week of the IDSA annual conference. Forty one here we come!



Re: ***Bollinger Bands Update...
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  09/21/05 09:47 pm
Msg: 57845 of 57863

I caught up to Will Roberts today regarding the clinical trial design for HCV-796. He had previously told me he thought the Phase 1b test is similar to the test for HCV-086. (With HCV-086, there were 96 patients tested, sixteen to a group, 6 groups, roughly 1 group a month. 4 of each group of 16 were given placebos, the other 12 were given the drug. The dosage of the drug was increased with each new group.) He said he wanted to check with Dr. Broom or someone who knew if what he thought was, in fact, true and to call him this week.

When I spoke to him today, he informed me the testing of HCV-796 is very similar to the testing of HCV-086. The testing is a multiple ascending dose trial with 16 members to a group, 4 receiving a placebo, twelve receiving the drug. He did say the number of patients, or groups has not been made public.

The testing could be shorter than it was with HCV-086 since HCV-796 is related to HCV-086 and the safety and tolerability of HCV-086 is well known. Will also said it takes about 14 days to complete the testing. Will Roberts repeated that HCV-796 is 128 times more powerful than HCV-086 and the animal testing data is very compelling. He said that Dr. Broom has said on more than one occasion that HCV-796 is so powerful that if 796 doesn't work, it is because the target is wrong! Evidently, Dr. Broom is very confident of the anti-viral power of the compound. Will said that the results of the proof of concept study for HCV-796 will be released in the 4th quarter.

Will also said that, in addition to the UBS presentation next Monday, VPHM will make a presentation at the annual Infectious Disease Society of America conference the following week in San Francisco. The IDSA conference is being held 10/6/05 through 10/9/05. A review of the programs of the conference indicates C. Difficile, HCV, and CMV will be topics of discussion, abstract presentations, etc.

I think the bollinger bands are narrowing in advance of the news that HCV-796 works! The 4th quarter begins the week of the IDSA annual conference. Forty one here we come!


http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&mid=57845&sid=7077380

the 2nd info is quite important IMO !!

[metro]

This chart did not display correctly in a smaller size so sorry for the scroll.

It may hit the log scale trend line again near the 9-day. I put a simple ABCD measured move projection on the chart to show the target of $21.44. Anything over that will be a different set up.

[la-onda]

good news:
ViroPharma Responds to Epidemic of Severe Disease Caused By Clostridium Difficile
Monday September 26, 9:11 am ET

EXTON, Pa., Sept. 26, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- ViroPharma Incorporated (NasdaqNM:VPHM - News) today reiterated that the company is engaged in efforts to meet the increased concerns of severe disease caused by an emerging strain of Clostridium difficile. These efforts include the launch of a major educational campaign to raise clinician awareness of the changing landscape of C. difficile-associated disease. ViroPharma commercializes Vancocin(r), which is indicated for the treatment of antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by C. difficile.

New information on an emerging strain of C. difficile was published in the September 24th edition of the Lancet (2005; 366: 1079-84). The paper, entitled ``Toxin Production by an Emerging Strain of Clostridium difficile Associated with Outbreaks of Severe Disease in North America and Europe'' was authored by Michel Warny et al. This report provided evidence that the strain of C. difficile involved in the ongoing epidemic produces 16 to 23 times more toxin than historical strains of this organism. In addition, it has been associated with a more rapidly progressive disease and significant increase in morbidity and mortality. The authors conclude that this ``could represent a major shift in the epidemiology of C. difficile-associated disease.'' The bacteria have been linked to numerous hospital disease outbreaks and patient deaths in the U.S., Canada and several European countries.

``We take our responsibility very seriously as the company that makes available Vancocin, the only approved product to treat severe C. difficile disease,'' commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. ``We, along with numerous medical and governmental institutions, are watching the development of this epidemic very carefully. As part of our efforts, we have committed significant resources toward medical education efforts to help clinicians prevent, diagnose, and treat severe C. difficile. Moreover, we are investing in manufacturing, including the qualification of a process that, if we are successful, would increase our capacity in 2006 and beyond.''

The company has undertaken a number of initiatives to combat the C. difficile epidemic in patients with severe disease, including efforts to:

-- Launch medical education programs, and initiate a study to develop
    a predictive model to identify patients with severe C. difficile
    associated disease;
-- Launch the C. difficile surveillance network, to monitor the
    epidemiology and treatment practices of C. difficile-associated
    disease in the U.S., and;
-- Increase capacity for potential future increased demand as part
    of qualifying the company's third party supply chain for Vancocin.

``Recent publications have highlighted the overall increase in incidence and severity of this dangerous disease,'' continued Dr. Broom. ``The most striking element of this epidemic is the significant increase that certain institutions are experiencing in morbidity and mortality associated with this disease. This is perhaps driven by this variant strain's ability to produce substantially more toxin than any strain we've seen in the past. This puts additional emphasis on prompt treatment with an effective therapy for patients with severe disease. Our efforts at ViroPharma are not only focused on aiding physicians through our medical education efforts in their diagnosis of patients who may have severe repercussions from infections, but also on preparing for the possibility of a continued epidemic of C. difficile disease. We are dedicated to helping clinicians identify and treat patients with severe disease.''

C. difficile is a bacterium, which under certain circumstances, typically after antibiotic therapy, can colonize the lower gastrointestinal tract where it may produce toxins which cause inflammation of the colon and diarrhea, and the associated complications of disease. Advanced age, gastrointestinal surgery/manipulation, long length of stay in healthcare settings, a serious underlying illness and immunocompromising conditions are associated with increased risk of disease. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are approximately 3,000,000 cases of antibiotic associated diarrhea per year, of which 15 to 25 percent are caused by C. difficile.

[SmartWrasse]

Wow!  Glad I held on.  Vanc has long been a great drug.  It will be phenomenal if they can make serious progress on the products in the pipeline.