VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[la-onda]

conference:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.7913945bab91eee9c817fff45a5fd83d7a47fa84f48d7dfaa21f5293c9254333

link for listening:
http://event.streamx.us/event/default.asp?event=ubs20050926

scroll down to
Vion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
9/29/2005 @ 3:00 PM EST   Listen   Listen



just awesome 

[la-onda]

nice link:
http://marketvibrations.com/past.php?subaction=showfull&id=1127966081&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&;

[valueseeker]

Thanks Oliver for posting the link.

Here is another upgrade:

08:42 VPHM ViroPharma tgt raised to $25 at Lazard (19.87 )

Lazard raises their VPHM tgt to $25 from $17 saying 43% of the physicians they surveyed expect to increase their usage of Vancocin to treat CDAD by an average of 20% over the next twelve months, and 70% stated that the recent Vancocin price increases will not cause them to reduce usage. Firm is increasing 2005-2009 Vancocin sales estimates. Reits Buy

[la-onda]

  applaud valueseeker

[SmartWrasse]

I am trying not to fall in love with viropharma
I am plagerizing this from Kudzu on Yahoo..

***Re: When should we take profit?     9-28-05
by: kudzu_ag (37/M/Thomasville, NC)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy


About a month and a half ago I mentioned that the base count had been reset with the drop of the stock price from 8/5 to 8/12.

The reason being is that the trough that was formed during this time took out the previous trough of 7/21. Therefore the 8/16 breakout was a 1st stage breakout.

What I am getting at is, I began a new trendline (because the base count was new)from the low of 8/12 to the low of 9/14, extended it to the right and noticed that this new trendline has already supported VPHM once...

At the close of 9/22, VPHM was $17.41 and the trendline was $17.397.

So VPHM not only found strong support with what I have mentioned earlier, the convergence of the Lower Darvas Box ($17.25) and the 20 MA (default moving average of the Bollinger Bands)($17.2635), but also found support at this trendline on the same day...

This trendline is going north at a clip of
27 1/2 cents a day, so it is fairly steep. As far as finding future support on this trendline???

To give you an example of where the trendline will be in the near future... Oct. 17 it will stand at $22.105.

Yes, the fundamentals and everything that has been mentioned about this company the last few months has been nothing but positive.

But I have also seen many, many, many companies over the last several years who were tops in fundamentals in the market, but their charts broke down either to take a consolidated breather or to take a leap off of a cliff.

My TA is my insurance policy against that kind of stuff.

So IMO, set this trendline and follow VPHM's action against it and watch the 50 MA.

IF there is continued support to found, it will be found at the 50 MA as a last stronghold of support. In the last 5 trading days, VPHM's 50 MA has moved from $14.24 to $14.93.

My hope is that we will ride the trendline for a while.

My realistic side tells me that we will meet the 50 MA one day for the first time in this run. I just hope it is over 3-4 more months away...

[la-onda]

Vanco Numbers Plot-page
wonderful links (I appreciate the work from [email protected]!):

http://www.jh.b.ms/
&
http://hometown.aol.com/andorramax/vphmpix/prescrNSales_plot.JPG



hope this one helps 

cheers
Oliver

[acekel]

Thanks for the VPHM pick. I just sent a donation and  hope to send more donations.

[tommyt]

It's too bad this thread has gotten tucked away, great info, still long since 8. This exceeds my biggest gain of year so far, the last was IJII. I'm now standing close to double baggger, and I see no reason to sell anytime soon. Sure would like Micheal's comments/ insights now.

[valueseeker]

Hi Tommy,

I see no reason VPHM won't be $25 by the next earning report (early November?). Where we go from here is up to the guidance and the pipeline drug status. I do plan to sell 1/3 of my shares around $25 to diversify a bit.

-Valueseeker

[brandyjoco]

Help. Does anyone have any technical indicators?  I am holding 3500 shares...ouch

[AussieTrader]

A low volume touch of the 9ema the uptrend is still intact the chart is not damaged.

If VPHM pattern continues, then we may see further pullback to the mid point of the bollinger bands in the $18.50 range, however $20 is good support now so will see.

From an indicators point of view continued pullback looks most likely, but as we have seen before news can change everything.

I said I'd stay with VPHM as long as Piper were manipulating it up to their target $24, but I am not adverse to selling and getting back in if I don't like the depth of any pullback.

Brandyjoco, what you do really depends on your entry price and risk tolerance, so far its just a small volume small value pullback...normal and healthy for uptrending stocks.

[la-onda]

yahoo board quotation:
Re: Kudzu
by: kudzu_ag (37/M/Thomasville, NC)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    10/04/05 10:52 pm
Msg: 60180 of 60183

Sorry that it's taken so long to get back to you...

Here are the numbers...

First of all the volume was 52.82% below average... The decline today is hardly anything to worry about.

Second is that the Bollinger Bands actually narrowed slightly today from 120.94% wider than normal to 117.66% wider than normal. If we see VPHM flat or slightly down the next couple of days, the bands will begin to narrow significantly. Which is good considering the events that are upcoming.

Third is the trendline closed at $19.61 today, which VPHM is still above. If we see VPHM open in the area of $19.89 tomorrow, then there is a possibilty we will see a bounce (obviously if VPHM closes up intra-day).

IMO there should be no worries unless there is a breakout to the downside on higher than average volume, below the $17.25 area. This will change if we have another breakout to the upside.

If this breakout to the downside happens, then we could see our first test of the 50 MA, which currently is $15.69. The 50 MA, in the last 2 weeks of trading has risen an average of almost 0.16 cents a day.

Given that VPHM doesn't take off one way of the other before the earnings report, the 50 MA should be around the $19.00 mark (20 trading days). This is just a guesstimate...

For what it's worth, I hope to see VPHM pretty much flat for a bit, so the 50 MA will catch up to the price action before we get our next round of good news. This will form a stronger base for VPHM to rocket away from.

A perfect example of this is RIMM on 12/22/03-12/23/03.
A good sound base set at the 50 MA, then BOOM!!! the thing is... before RIMM took off from this base, they had already been hitting 52 week highs for 7 months...




& chart:

[brandyjoco]

Thanks for the help!  I hung in there and am on at a conference so I am glad that it held! I really want to stay long term.

[la-onda]

strong resistance at 18.66$ !

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock

[Se7en]

strong resistance at 18.66$ !

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VPHM&num1=7&cobrand=&mode=stock

You mean support!