VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

Bullish Hammer at the close.   It needs to start attacking those four levels of resistance.

VPHM  now can be bought at a nice discount to any of the four sell levels that I posted.

I covered my short today, and I'm not interested in trading it long with all of that overhead resistance, so it goes on the back burner, and I no longer will follow it.

Good luck to those of you long.

[Terliso]

There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck

Melf Elf analysis is right on the spot

Melf Elf,

Applaud

[Lucas Scott]

Melf -

First, congrats on the successful short. Profit is good. But I have some questions about it. I presume you shorted at ~$20 about three weeks ago based on the Wolfwave* formation? How come you did not cover when that formation was invalidated when the stock bounced? I believe the market weakness of the past 4 days really saved you on this play. If the market had gone the other direction VPHM could have gone to $25 instead. What was your exit strategy / mental stop loss point? It seems you took on a higher risk than reward ratio with this play. 

*About Wolfwaves. I know you and Calven are fans. I have read some of the Wolfwave thread. I will be blunt and say Wolfwaves seem really hokey. Don't take it personally - it's not a slam on you or Calven. It is a slam on Wolfwaves. I mean, we could draw The Big Dipper on a lot of charts but that wouldn't make it a relevant pattern. Seem like maybe 1 out of 20 charts that hit Wolfwave #4 or 5 on a chart actually go on to hit the next target. Lots of charts get to #4 or 5 because that's just a basic channel pattern. Anyway, just one guy's take on Wolfwaves.       

[Melf Elf]

Melf -

First, congrats on the successful short.

Thank you, Scott, and thanks, Alister.

I presume you shorted at ~$20 about three weeks ago based on the Wolfwave* formation?

No, I didn't short it until last Friday, at 21.00, on the second re-test of Sell #3, which was 21.09.

The first re-test was Wednesday's " BOOYAH gap" to 21.04 - 21.08.  On Friday,  I had 3 sells in place on the chart, one failed re-test...the BOOYAH gap... and the technicals looked lousy, so I felt that I had plenty of evidence that favored a short of the second re-test of resistance at Sell #3, which was 21.09.   

"Sell, or sell short, at resistance."

My stop was a close above the Symmetrical Triangle, a dollar higher, so the risk:reward on the trade was better than 1: 2 if my 18.65 Symmetrical Target #1 MADE, which it did yesterday.

About Wolfwaves. I know you and Calven are fans. I have read some of the Wolfwave thread. I will be blunt and say Wolfwaves seem really hokey. Don't take it personally - it's not a slam on you or Calven. It is a slam on Wolfwaves. I mean, we could draw The Big Dipper on a lot of charts but that wouldn't make it a relevant pattern. Seem like maybe 1 out of 20 charts that hit Wolfwave #4 or 5 on a chart actually go on to hit the next target. Lots of charts get to #4 or 5 because that's just a basic channel pattern. Anyway, just one guy's take on Wolfwaves.       

First of all, thanks for reminding me to run the Metastock Explorter for Wolfe Waves.  I forgot. 

Your comments are fair enough, Scott.    I wasn't familiar with WWs until December, when I read Calven's thread, so I have very little experience with them.  I liked the Wolfe Wave that I found in the QQQQ (Calven was tracking the NASDAQ).  The QQQQ target MADE, within a few pennies (see chart below). 

What I like so much about them, is the big percentage moves to the target at #6, but as I said, I don't have enough experience with them to know how successful they are in achieving the target at #6, so I'm still feeling cautious about playing them, but am trying to follow the ones we've identified.

Regarding the VPHM Wolfe Wave, that one also was a breakdown a traditional validated channel ,at 20.25 on February 13, the day of my first post.  That was a  channel breakdown and a sell as far as I was concerned, regardless of whether or not it was a valid Wolfe Wave. 

As you probably know, I sell when a validated trendline/channel gets broken.  ALWAYS.  Right or wrong.

Good luck on your trade, Scott!

[KCScott]

I may have been one day off in my call off the lower Bollinger Band, but feeling real good about VPHM this AM - Already up .30 in pre-market and here's the news:

08:14 ET ViroPharma: Generic Vancocin introduction unlikely until 2010 - Piper Jaffray (VPHM) 18.80 :Piper Jaffray notes that a press release this week announced that two generic cos, Akorn (AKN) and Cipla, have formalized their agreement to develop a generic oral anti-infective, which they believe is generic Vancocin. As a reminder, they note that this agreement was previously announced in November 2005 when Akorn and Cipla signed a letter of intent. With at least two groups working on a generic Vancocin including Akorn/Cipla and Strides Arcolab, they believe investors should assume that a generic Vancocin will eventually come to the market. Even if a manufacturer was to start clinical trials for a generic Vancocin in CDAD imminently, they believe a generic would not enter the market until at least 2010 given the scope of clinical studies needed and the likely time frame for FDA review. Firm notes that mgmt at VPHM reiterated its 2006 Vancocin sales guidance of $160-$170 mln at a health care conference this week -- firm believes this guidance is highly conservative given that annualized 4Q05 sales are tracking closely to this guidance and a 6.8% price increase will become effective in March.

[la-onda]

link to the full story:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/03/09/viropharma-vancocin-0309markets15_print.html


Piper Jaffray maintained an "outperform" rating on ViroPharma and said generic threats to lead drug Vancocin would not likely hit the market until 2010.

Earlier this week, tiny drug developer Akorn and India-based Cipla said they had forged an agreement to develop a generic oral anti-infective agent which is thought to be generic Vancocin, according to Piper Jaffray. Akorn could not be reached for comment.

"With at least two groups working on a generic Vancocin including Akorn/Cipla and Strides Arcolab, we believe investors should assume that a generic Vancocin will eventually come to the market," the analyst wrote in a research report.

"However, even if a manufacturer was to start clinical trials for a generic Vancocin in CDAD [clostridium difficile-associated disease] imminently, we believe a generic would not enter the market until at least 2010 given the scope of clinical studies needed and the likely time frame for FDA review."

The analyst reiterated a $24 price target on ViroPharma and said sales estimates for Vancocin remain "highly conservative" for 2006.

"Management at ViroPharma reiterated its 2006 Vancocin sales guidance of $160 million to $170 million at a health care conference this week," said Wei.

"We would like to remind investors that we believe this guidance is highly conservative given that annualized fourth-quarter 2005 sales are tracking closely to this guidance and a 6.8% price increase will become effective in March."

Wei noted that ViroPharma has a history of providing "overly conservative" sales guidance for the drug.

[la-onda]

after the outperform rating from Piper I would like to provide you some reasons for being a long term investor  :

If you find another company with the same statistics, please inform me:

24 slides presentation from 8th of March conference:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/jmp2/vphm/

slide quotation part 1 (focus on Vancocin):

[la-onda]

part 2:
24 slides presentation from 8th of March conference:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/jmp2/vphm/

[la-onda]

fyi:


IMS Health Weekly Scripts - Good News!
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    03/13/06 11:38 am
Msg: 96738 of 96751

Weekly prescriptions for the week ended March 3, 2006 totaled 2,299. For the week ended February 24, 2006, prescriptions totaled 2,067. The increase is substantial. New prescriptions for the week ended March 3, 2006 totaled 1,967. New prescriptions for the week ended February 24, 2006 totaled 1,810. Again, the increase is substantial.

[tommyt]

I wouldn't expect much action here until Friday's options expiration.

[la-onda]

Thomas Weisel update:
http://www.tweisel.com/ShowDocument?DocId=79430

ViroPharma, Inc. (VPHM; $21.30; Cap $1.3bn; Outperform) – Strong 4Q05 reflects full impact of price increases and
continued demand; Guidance seems conservative.

• Strong 4Q05: ViroPharma reported 4Q05 total revenue of $40.5mn (Vancocin: $40.3mn), compared to our and Street
consensus of $36.7mn. Strong top-line results reflect the full impact of prior price increases during as well as strong
demand. GAAP EPS of $1.17 included a $47.8mn deferred tax benefit recorded during the quarter. Pro forma EPS of
$0.41, excluding this benefit, was significantly higher than our and the Street estimates of $0.24 and $0.27, respectively.
Pro forma EPS upside was attributable to higher revenue and lower than expected operating expenses.

• Lower than expected Expenses: Total operating expenses of $6.0mn were 41.5% lower than our estimate of $10.3mn.
MG&A expense of $2.9mn was 43% lower than our estimate of $5.1mn, while R&D expense of $3.1mn was 40% lower
than our estimate of $5.1mn. VPHM ended the year with $233.4mn in cash and cash equivalents and will pay off the
remaining $78.9mn of debt on March 1, 2006.

• Pipeline progressing: Preliminary data from the maribavir phase II trial are expected by the end of 1Q06 with a phase III
trial in stem cell transplant patients to be initiated mid 2006, followed by a phase III trial in solid organ transplant patients
in 4Q06. In addition, data from the HCV-796/peg-IFN-á combination study are expected during 2Q06, to be followed by a
phase IIb trial mid year. ViroPharma is currently conducting feasibility studies for NTX, its early stage investigational
therapy for the treatment of recurrent CDAD, and management expects to meet with the FDA to discuss a suitable clinical
path during the year. In addition, management reiterated their commitment to add one or two additional value drivers
during the year, which could result in upside to our estimates.

• 2006 guidance looks conservative: Management issued 2006 revenue guidance in the range of $160-170mn (TWP
estimate: $162.7mn; Street: $167.0mn), which we believe may prove to be conservative. Operating income is expected to
grow 10-25% over 2005 levels and as such management expects an effective tax rate of 38%. The impact of SFAS 123R
is expected to be in the range of $3.5-4.5mn, which we currently exclude from our pro forma EPS calculations. Based on
VPHM's newly issued guidance we are slightly adjusting our operating expense forecasts and tax rate assumptions. Our
revenue and fully taxed EPS estimates remain unchanged, however.

Valuation: Based on our 2006 fully taxed EPS estimate of $0.84, an estimated EPS growth rate of 25.0% and a P/E/G
ratio of 1.4 to 1.5, we believe that the current fair value range of VPHM shares is $29 to $32. Our valuation is based on
Vancocin sales alone and assumes no contribution from pipeline products. We rate VPHM shares Outperform.

Revising Estimates. Mar '05 $38.3mn, $0.18 (fully taxed); Dec '06 $162.7mn, $0.84 (fully taxed); Dec '07 $201.0mn,
$1.15 (fully taxed)


cheers
O.

[bocasva]

I think VPHM is still working itself down to the Wolf-Wave target, what do you guys think?

[basonista]

I was also going to watch how this reacts to the 200ma which is approaching fast.

[Lucas Scott]

I must admit Melf's TA trumped mine with VPHM

Boc - I don't think that Wolfwave is right because there isn't the appropriate lead-in to wave 1.

Expecting support from the 200 dma or support at ~$16 where the November lows were. Plus RSI hit oversold level today. C'mon bounce!

Michael - are you considering VPHM for the 3SOV portfolio?

[la-onda]

time for increase the VPHM position 

VPHM: Drops -5.31%; Vol +118%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Thursday , March 16, 2006 16:22 ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong DOWNWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: VPHM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $17.15        $16.24        -5.31%
VOLUME         2,789,100     6,094,000      +118.49%
#TRADES            4,059         7,051       +73.71%
DAY-HI            $17.89        $17.89           N/A
DAY-LO            $16.87        $15.98       LATE-LO

AH: 16.41$
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=VPHM