VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Melf Elf]

nice to see you again MelfElf, should we use this thread now?

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6770.msg75808#msg75808

cheers
O.

(still invested in @ 9..4 and May 07 12.5 $ calls) 

Oliver,

I am at a complete loss, as far as which thread to use.  All of my posts on VPHM from last winter and spring are in this thread, so I will continue to use it since it was a former "3SOF" stock, and there are a ton of posts in this one.

I'm grateful to David that he has given privleges to our buddy, setravis, to "merge" these threads however he sees fit.  Perfectly fine with me.   TELL ME where to post, because I'm an "old elf," and I get totally confused.

 

That said...

Here's the chart, with today's close.

VPHM is telling us the following:

1. I tagged the up trendline coming off the July 7 low of 7.07 (the Double Top target MADE for sure, at that point.  It was in doubt on what looked like a "bad print" on May 4, which Lucas Scott and I discussed at that time.  No doublt at the July 7 low.  The Bearish target of 7.76 MADE, and was exceeded). 

Friday's tag of that up trending off the July 7 low is the FOURTH tag of that trendline, and it's the SECOND validation of that trendline, as support.  BULLISH.

2. Today's takeout of Friday's 12.58 high (the "buy pivot" is a Buy Signal on a print of 12.59.  We got it. (I'll show you the 34/55 RSI chart next)  BULLISH.

3. Today's candle is a Bullish Engulfing pattern, off a SECOND validation of that up trendline.
VERY BULLISH.

If VPHM takes out Friday's 12.21 low, other than for a very, very tiny fakeout (which is why my stop iat 12.19, below the "psychological" round number of 12.20, we shouldn't want anything to do with it.

DON'T LIE TO ME!! 

VPHM has told us VERY BULLISH things here, and we shouldn't tolerate LIARS, if all of those things get reversed to the downside, which would tell us that all of the above wasn't BULLISH.

   

"Never tolerate nonsense from stocks.  I SELL, on nonsense." - Melf Elf     

Like I did on all of those SELL signals that I had late last winter.  Mercy! 

I quit counting a SELL #7, when VPHM met its Waterloo on the break of absoulte critical support at 15.53-15.55, during the St. Paddy's Day Massacre.

UGLY!!

Even our Cramer put a Post-it note on his forehead, to remind himself NEVER to "fall in love" a company's fundamentals. 

No criticism of our Cramer intended.  We ALL make our mistakes, God bless him. 

I've made MANY.

It doesn't matter to me Oliver, WHICH folder we post in.  I just hope that I don't get smited half to death posting on VPHM, like I did late last winter of my SELL..#3...SELL #4...SELL#5...SELL #6....SELL #7...

Lord, it was brutal in here!

   

34/55 RSI chart coming up next...

[Melf Elf]

34-55 RSIs

[la-onda]

two investor conferences are coming,

IMS Health October Prescriptions:    
October prescriptions total 18,843. A strong number for the fourth quarter.

TA looking better now 

[tokyopua]

Got in VPHM recently at 12.52.  Accidentally bought a double position compared to what I planned to buy  but luck was on my side this time despite that mistake.

Melf, do you have a target on this one?  I am thinking to sell half of my double position at 13.84, the most recent resistance, and maybe let the rest ride.

[Melf Elf]

Got in VPHM recently at 12.52.

Tok,

You have a GREAT enty into VPHM!   

You got in below the 12.58 Buy Pivot, and below the actual Buy Signal, at 12.59, a penny above the "pivot."  Applaud! 

I bought the 12.58 "pivot," in anticipation, as posted.

I have a favor to ask of you, and I'm going to ask it of ALL members of 3SOF.   In fairness to David, Frederick and Michael, let's post our "great entries" in as timely a fashion possible.

I completely trust you, Tok, so please don't take any offense.  You have posted many other trades in a VERY timely fashion, which is why I feel safe with you, in saying this.

3SOF is very vulnerable, as is ANY web site that HAS TO post trades in a "credible manner."  The rest of us can say, "Oh-h-h, did I mention that I bought this stock, BEFORE it rallied?  Did I mention that I SOLD this stock, BEFORE it crashed?"

Ummm-mmm....NO, you didn't!

That ain't playing fair, and that's why I haven't be very happy with "Abandoned Folders."  Members post "after the fact," that they are LONG, but when the stock tanks, there isn't a word said about the stock.

That's also why I haven't posted in this folder for a very long time.

I'm not fond of that "internet" behavior, and I think that it's very unfair to our 3SOF team, who have "struggled" this year, like the rest of us, and who have to post their trades IN ADVANCE.

Let's all try to be fair with them.

Frankly, I don't buy a lot of the "I have this gain and that gain" posts.  After the fact.  Sorry, but I've played this game MUCH too long, to find that believable.

Again, Tok, I don't doubt you for a minute on your VPHM trade.  I have found you to be VERY honest, like The Scotsman, Maxi, Nullzero, Beroznifoff, Usedcasting, Thai626, Amerans... and way-y too many others to mention.

Accidentally bought a double position compared to what I planned to buy  but luck was on my side this time despite that mistake.

That's an example of what I mean.  You're honest.  You admit the mistake.  THANK YOU!!!

I'm going to post all of the above, and ask for fairness in "claiming gains." The rest of this post, I will respond to your question.

Melf, do you have a target on this one?

Yes,.

Target #1: The recent high, at 13.84.
Target:#2: The "possibile: Bearish Rising Wedge, shown on this chart.
Target #3: 15.50ish, where VPHM met its "Waterloo," at the St. Paddy's Day Massace.  It's also a "measured move" off the second gap higher, August 29.

0quote]
I am thinking to sell half of my double position at 13.84, the most recent and maybe let the rest ride.

Yeah, that's Target #1.

Good luck, Tok, and thanks for your sincerity and for your honesty.

I don't have good karma in this folder. so I'll see how many SMITES I get.    

[Melf Elf]

Nice week for VPHM.  It was up, at least a little, each day.

Target #1: The recent high, at 13.84.
Target:#2: The "possibile: Bearish Rising Wedge, shown on this chart.
Target #3: 15.50ish, where VPHM met its "Waterloo," at the St. Paddy's Day Massace.  It's also a "measured move" off the second gap higher, August 29.

My plan is to sell only 10% if/when we get to Target #1.  Normally, I would sell 25% or 50%, but I like this chart, technically, and VPHM seems to have promise, fundamentally (thanks to those of you who add that perspective). 

As the chart stands, it looks like it wants to go higher. 

We're well above the Kumo (Cloud) on the Ichimoku chart, but not too much so.  The RSIs all are "in gear," all the way down the 13... 21 .. 34... 55... 89... 144... 233... Fibonacci sequence, with the exception of the last pairings, the 144/233 RSIs.  Those are the longest-term measures of relative strength that I look at.   They're more of a "confirming" indicator, rather than of a "leading" indicator, like the earliest 13/21RSIs.  (I tried the 8/13RSI pairing, and didn't like it.  Too many whipsaws, and false readings).

MACD went above its signal line, from above the zero line, on Friday.  That "suggests" a bullish continuation, when the signal is given from above the zero line (always view those signals in the context of what the chart itself is doing).  The chart looks fine.

Structurally, the BIG Top that formed in VPHM, and subsequently broke at 15.55 during the St. Paddy's Day Massacre last winter, formed over seven months.  VPHM now has had eight months of basing, and time to recover.

There isn't always "parity" between Bulls and Bears, e.g. seven months worth of Bulls going up against seven months worth of Bears, but it helps a chart when it isn't going up against a ton of immediate overhead resistance (like CPST has tried to do, and has failed repeatedly).

Additionally, VPHM broke out of a nice Inverse H&S in August (No Right Shoulder).  That was Bullish.  The 13.65 target getting MADE was confirmation.  The target getting MADE fairly quickly was confirmation of the "No Right Shoulder."  VPHM was in too much of a hurry to rally, to bother stopping to form a Right Shoulder. 

VPHM broke out on a Breakway Gap, and then three days later, had another "Measuring Gap" to the upside.  That's "Raging Bull" behavior.  It's heathy that VPHM went into sideways consolidation from there, to build a base of support for another rally.  Otherwise, another big Gap Up puts the stock in danger of a Parabolic Rally (straight up affair) that ends very upleasantly in a "Blowoff Top," and often, a "Parabolic Return" to the origin of the initial breakout.

In light of these Bullish factors, it would seem that VPHM wants to return to the battlefield, where it met it's Waterloo, exactly at 15.55-15.56.

When 15.55-15.56 got taken out in early trading at the St. Paddy's Day Massacre, VPHM crashed, on tremendous volume.  Watching the intraday chart, it looked like "they pulled the plug on it."

The low was 10.35.  The close was 10.855.  UGH. 

Much of the Crash purely was due to technical selling, because:

15.55 - was where the Bearish Wolfe Wave Target line (#6) came in that day.

15.56 - was the low of the November Double Bottom (15.56-15.60), before VPHM embarked on its Death March to 23.44 on January 31 of this year, prior to crashing to 7.07 in July.

When Key Support like that gets taken out, we want to get out of the way.

We'll take a look at that time-frame next, to get an idea of "where we've been," and also because there's a decent chance that we'll be "returning to the scene" aty some point, as long as VPHM looks as good as it does right now.

[Melf Elf]

See narrative, last post.

[la-onda]

analyst update part 1

[la-onda]

part 2

[la-onda]

finally

[Melf Elf]

Oliver,

Thanks for the posts on the fundamentals.  Applause.

Minor selloff in VPHM this week.  That's fine.  On any further move down next week, I'd like to see the green and blue up trendlines hold, particularly the blue one.  Both trendlines have been validated as support.

The blue trendline comes in on Monday at 12.6314, slightly above my 12.58 entry. 

My initial stop was 12.20.  I'm raising it to a close below that trendline, or an obvious late day tank below it, especially if it's on volume.

[Melf Elf]

VPHM hung on for a five cent gain in yesterday's down market.

On this morning's Squawk, Paul Noglows, of Lazard Capital, made positive comments and said that his price target is $21.

The blue trendline comes in on Monday at 12.6314, slightly above my 12.58 entry.

My initial stop was 12.20. I'm raising it to a close below that trendline, or an obvious late day tank below it, especially if it's on volume.

Same stop.  That trendline comes in today, November 28, at 12.668.

[Melf Elf]

VPHM is trading above $14 for the first time since the St. Paddy's Day Crash.

The top of the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge basis the daily chart (scroll up two posts, and see pattern in blue) comes in today at 14.5244, and rises 0.02538 each day.  I'll take some profits if/when we reach that trendline.

VPHM currently is BID 14.09...ASK 14.10, up $0.52.

[Melf Elf]

Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal.  Stop: 12.19.  Risk: a loss of 3.1%.

Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low.  I like that.

Sold 25% of my VPHM at 14.52, at the channel/trendline.  Gain: 15.4%

The top of the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge basis the daily chart (scroll up two posts, and see pattern in blue) comes in today at 14.5244, and rises 0.02538 each day. I'll take some profits if/when we reach that trendline.

Beautiful Bullish patterns and chart structure on today's rally to the 14.5244 trendline.  I like that.  Today's high, so far, is 14.55.

VPHM currently is BID 14.44...ASK 14.45.

[la-onda]

fyi, wonderful update  :
Update On VPHM From Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference

Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst
212 284-9305, thomas.a.wei@...

KEY POINTS:
Possible combination study with HCV796 and Vertex's VX-950 could be
a positive catalyst in 2007 for VPHM.

VPHM's HCV-796 May Be Attractive To VRTX For Combination Studies with VX- 950.

We learned that senior management at VRTX has indicated that
they are interested in studying VX-950, its protease inhibitor in development
for HCV, in combination studies with a polymerase inhibitor.
Of the polymerase inhibitors in development, they expressed particular interest in
VPHM's HCV796, a non-nucleoside currently in Phase II trials. Although VPHM
did not directly confirm any ongoing discussions with VRTX, VPHM senior
management reiterated its strong interest in participating in combination
studies with other companies developing novel HCV therapies and a belief that
this will become an important direction in the treatment paradigm for HCV.
Based on comments from both companies, we believe that the development
pathway would involve initial drug-drug interaction studies to determine if there
is an interaction between the two drugs (protease inhibitors are
predominantly metabolized through the CYP3A4 pathway, whereas CYP3A4 represents
one of multiple mechanisms for HCV796 metabolism) followed by initial 14-
day proof of concept studies. We believe that the development pathway, if
successful, would likely center around a combination approach in the front-line
setting.  If the companies move forward with combination studies, this could
represent a new positive catalyst for VPHM in 2007.

PRICE TARGET AND JUSTIFICATION:
Our current $16 price target is based on sum-of-the-parts analysis:
$6 for Vancocin + $3 for cash + $7 for pipeline.

RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) Vancocin competition, and
2) failures in maribavir and/or HCV programs.