VPHM - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[nutsterrt]

I kick myself every day for selling this stock. Bought in the beginning of November at an average price of 12.98, sold at 13.10 because it "wasn't moving fast enough." Now it's up around 30% Blast   

Oh well, congrats and Applause, Melf and la-onda!

[la-onda]

I am back in the 21st century (Internet @ home) 

Well nice chart and nice attached report.
I am not happy that I have sold my March 07 12.5 calls before my move to Singapore  (to lock 50% profit) 
Holding long and strong my shares....

cheers
O.

[Melf Elf]

I kick myself every day for selling this stock. Bought in the beginning of November at an average price of 12.98, sold at 13.10 because it "wasn't moving fast enough." Now it's up around 30% Blast   

Oh well, congrats and Applause, Melf and la-onda!

Nutsterrt,

Thanks.  I've done that so-o many times (Impatient Demon  ), I sure can relate to what you're feeling.  I appreciate your sharing that, and that you're working hard to improve, like we all are.  Applause.

These DOUBLE breakouts can be very powerful, as this one in VPHM was, so it's good if we can watch for them.  The "nested" Bullish Inverse H&S pattern formed over 34 trading sessions; it took only 6 days for the target to get MADE.

I am back in the 21st century (Internet @ home) 

Glad that you're getting settled, Oliver. 

Well nice chart and nice attached report.
I am not happy that I have sold my March 07 12.5 calls before my move to Singapore  (to lock 50% profit) 
Holding long and strong my shares....

Nice job!  Applause. 

Thanks for all of your updates in this thread, Oliver.   They've been very helpful.

 

[la-onda]

thanks MelfElf 

updated chart. updated PIPER report (price target now 20$  )
also attached for download

cheers
O.

[la-onda]

awesome milestone....


ViroPharma Receives Orphan Drug Designation for Maribavir for Cytomegalovirus Viremia and Disease Indication

EXTON, Pa., Feb. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted orphan drug designation for maribavir for prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia and disease in the populations at-risk.

The Orphan Drug Act was designed to provide incentives to companies to develop drugs that treat conditions affecting 200,000 or fewer patients annually in the U.S. and that provide a significant therapeutic advantage over existing treatments or fill an unmet medical need. Orphan drug designation entitles ViroPharma to seven years of market exclusivity in the United States upon FDA approval of maribavir, provided that the company continues to meet certain conditions established by the FDA. Other potential advantages include protocol assistance, the potential for priority review, tax credits, and other financial incentives.

"We are particularly pleased to receive orphan designation for the product from the FDA," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "We have made excellent progress with maribavir over the last 12 months. We demonstrated in a Phase 2 clinical trial that the drug appears to be well tolerated with impressive anti-CMV activity in stem cell transplant patients, which has allowed us to initiate our international Phase 3 development program. The receipt of this designation marks one more important milestone in the development of the compound. Maribavir is an important Phase 3 drug candidate for a significant unmet medical need, and may one day provide an effective and well tolerated therapeutic alternative for patients at risk of CMV disease."

[ScottishTrader]

just saw that, nice 

Stuck in a PM order at 17.49, lets see if it gets filled

[la-onda]

yahoo board quotation (irc):
Orphan Status

Yes, the news is significant. Although the orphan drug designation
was expected by some analysts, until it happens it can't be counted
on with certainty. The designation provides VPHM market exclusivity
for patients at risk of CMV disease. This is a very broad
designation. In effect, no one else can compete with ViroPharma for
7 years beginning with FDA approval of Maribivir for prophylactic
treatment of CMV at risk patients (and possibly for pre-emptive
treatment as well). This is in addition to patent protection from
generics. Also with Hatch-Waxman, if Maribivir is approved in 2009,
the remaining patent life can be extended from 2015 to 2018 or 2020.
ViroPharma will have market exclusivity from 2009 (assuming
Maribivir is approved in 2009) to sometime in 2016 and a patent life
that won't expire until 2018 or 2020. The protocol assistance and
priority review are also very important benefits of the orphan drug
designation. It means that someone at the FDA is assigned to
Maribivir to assist ViroPharma in designing clinical studies to get
speedy FDA approval of the clinical trials and also someone is
assigned to Maribivir to ramrod Maribivir through the NDA approval
process. In theory, the priority review could shorten the time it
will take to get Maribivir on the market. How much shorter? It is
not known given the fact that Maribivir already has a fast track
designation. But at a minimum, it means there will be someone at the
FDA whose job it is to ensure that the right people at the FDA are
reviewing the NDA in a timely manner. Plus there are tax credits!

[la-onda]

Piper Jaffray raises their Viropharma (VPHM 17.77) tgt to $21 from
$20, as the co raises possibility Of marketing Maribavir In EU.
They would view this as a positive move for several reasons. Given a
well- defined transplant market in Europe, which they estimate would require a comparably sized salesforce as in the US, they believe the opportunity could be financially attractive. They also note that senior management at VPHM has greater depth in EU regulatory and commercial experience than most US biotech companies, lowering the risk of expanding into Europe...

please check attached report

[la-onda]

Q4 results out!

ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 Financial Results and Reiterates Guidance
Wednesday February 28, 7:00 am ET

EXTON, Pa., Feb. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) reported today its financial results for the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006.

Highlights during the fourth quarter of 2006 included:

Vancocin®:
-- Vancocin achieved $38.5 million in net sales;
-- Prescriptions for Vancocin grew 19 percent over fourth quarter of 2005,
as estimated by IMS; and
-- Wholesaler inventory decreased by two to three weeks.

Clinical Pipeline:
-- Patient dosing began in a Phase 3 study of maribavir for the prevention
of cytomegalovirus disease in stem cell transplant patients;
-- Additional positive data from the maribavir Phase 2 evaluation was
presented at the 2006 American Society of Hematology meeting (ASH); and
-- Patient dosing began in a Phase 2 evaluation of HCV-796 in combination
with pegylated interferon and ribavirin.

Financial:
-- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments grew $32 million to
$255 million; and
-- Working capital grew to $266 million.

Net sales of Vancocin® were $38.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2006 and $166.6 million for the twelve months of 2006. This compares to $40.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2005 and $125.9 million for the twelve months of 2005.

Operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006 was $25.1 million and $98.8 million, respectively, compared to operating income in the fourth quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2005 of $28.2 million and $88.1 million, respectively. Operating income for 2006 was impacted by increases in gross product margin, partially offset by increased costs to support Vancocin and our CMV and HCV development programs. Operating income for the year ended December 31, 2006 also includes $5.0 million of share-based compensation expense and $2.3 million of costs associated with the opposition to the OGD's change in approach. Additionally, 2005 included $6.0 million of license fee revenue.

"ViroPharma's primary goal since its inception has been to develop and deliver novel therapeutics to patients suffering from serious infectious diseases; 2006 was a remarkable year of progress toward achieving that goal," commented Michel de Rosen, ViroPharma's chief executive officer. "During the year, we presented important new data from each of our late stage clinical product opportunities -- maribavir and HCV-796 -- and moved each of them into the next stage of clinical evaluation. We also began preclinical evaluation of a next generation anti-HCV compound with our partners at Wyeth. Importantly, our clinical development endeavors were again fully funded by the cash provided by sales of Vancocin."

Vincent Milano, ViroPharma's chief financial officer and chief operating officer continued, "Our excellent financial results for the full year, in part generated by the $166.6 million in net sales of Vancocin, continued to position the company well for future growth. Importantly, during the fourth quarter of 2006, we achieved net Vancocin sales of $38.5 million as our wholesalers moved their inventory levels down by two to three weeks compared to where we ended the third quarter of 2006. In 2007, we anticipate continued strong growth in net Vancocin sales of between 17 and 23 percent over that of 2006, and additional improvements in our product margins over those of the full year of 2006. This year will be one marked by a focus on product development. As such, our guidance for 2007 reflects those increased expenses as we continue to move maribavir and HCV-796 through clinical evaluation, and make important new investments into the Vancocin business."

The Company recorded income tax expense of $41.9 million for the twelve months of 2006. In 2005, an income tax benefit of $47.8 million was recorded in the fourth quarter of December 31, 2005 to establish deferred tax assets. In addition, for the twelve months of 2005, the Company recorded $10.0 million in income tax expense. These two items resulted in a net income tax benefit of $37.8 million for 2005.

Net income in the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 was $18.0 million and $66.7 million, respectively, compared to net income of $72.7 million and $113.7 million for the same periods in 2005. Net income per share for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 was $0.26 per share, basic and $0.25 per share, diluted, compared to a net income of $1.21 per share, basic, and $1.17 per share, diluted, for the same period in 2005. Net income per share for the year ended December 31, 2006 was $0.97 per share, basic, and $0.95 per share, diluted, compared to net income of $2.56 per share, basic, and $2.02, diluted, for the same period in 2005.

The decrease in the year-end net income for both comparative periods primarily resulted from the change in income tax from a benefit in 2005 to an expense in 2006. Offsetting factors included the impacts of increased operating income, decreased interest expense and increased interest income in 2006.

Operating Highlights

During the quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2006, net sales of Vancocin decreased 4.6 percent and increased 32.4 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2005. The quarter comparison was impacted by the timing of wholesaler purchasing decisions. The twelve months increased primarily due to the impact of price increases. The Company believes, based upon data reported by IMS Health Incorporated, that prescriptions during the quarter and year ended December 31, 2006 exceeded prescriptions in the 2005 periods by 19.0 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively.

The gross product margin rate (net product sales less cost of sales as a percent of net product sales) for Vancocin increased in all comparative periods. For the twelve-month periods, the gross margin rate increased to 88.6 percent from 85.7 percent. The increases are the result of the price increases and lower cost of sales per unit. The lower cost per unit primarily results from the sale of units carrying a decreased inventory cost which were manufactured by OSG Norwich beginning in the second quarter of 2006.

The total remaining costs and expenses associated with operating income were $11.5 million and $7.3 million, for the fourth quarter of 2006 and 2005, respectively, and $49.4 million and $26.2 million, for the twelve months of 2006 and 2005, respectively.

The Company recorded $11.9 million of income tax expense in the fourth quarter of 2006 and $41.9 million for the twelve months of 2006, which are based on a combined federal and state estimated annual effective tax rate of 38.6 percent in the twelve-month period ending December 31, 2006, and include the effects of various permanent differences, the impact of provision to return adjustments and the impact of adjustments to state apportionment rates. This is not comparable to the 2005 periods as the Company released a portion of the valuation allowance to establish deferred tax assets in the fourth quarter of 2005. The Company currently anticipates an effective tax rate of 38.1 percent for the year ended December 31, 2007. However, this may be reduced due to the orphan drug designation for maribavir received in February 2007.

Working Capital Highlights

As of December 31, 2006, ViroPharma's working capital was approximately $266 million, which represents a $100 million increase from December 31, 2005.

Looking ahead in 2007

ViroPharma is commenting upon previously announced guidance for the year 2007 as a convenience to investors. The following guidance provided by ViroPharma are projections, based upon numerous assumptions, all of which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with these forward looking statements, please see the Disclosure Notice below.

For the year 2007, ViroPharma expects the following

-- Net product sales are expected to be $195 to $205 million;
-- Gross margin rate for Vancocin is expected to exceed 90 percent;
-- Research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and
administrative (MG&A) expenses, excluding the impact of SFAS 123R, are expected to be $60 to $72 million.
-- The SFAS 123R impact to the above expenses will be in the range of $7.5
to $8.5 million.  Including the impact of SFAS 123R, the research and
development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A)
expenses are expected to be between $67.5 and $80.5 million.


will be an interesting day for VPHM IMHO

cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

fyi (IRC quotation):
Destocking by the wholesalers can't be controlled. The good news is
the wholesalers will restock by a week or so in the first quarter to
be where they were before 3rd qtr restocking and 4th qtr destocking.
Wholesalers may add a 2nd week due to increasing demand in the
March/April time frame. If you look at the 3rd and 4th quarter
together, the average sales for the last 2 qtrs is 46.7795 million.
Annualized, it equals 187.118 million. Multiply the annualized sales
by 1.094 to reflect the January 2007 price increase and you arrive
at 2007 sales of 204.707 million. This is the upper end of the sales
guidance for 2007 (205 million is the upper limit on the guidance
range. Given the historical weakness of the third and fourth
quarters and prescription growth of roughly 20 percent, it is
apparent 2007 Vancocin sales will exceed management's 2007 sales
guidance easily. This is important as operating expenses will
increase significantly due to 2 Maribivir Phase III trials in 2007
and to a lesser extent, continuing HCV-796 trials. In my opinion,
ViroPharma is in the cat bird's seat. Read on.

Gross margins improved significantly to 94.76%. With the price
increase, the gross margin will increas to 95.21%. The gross margin
will fluctuate due to manufacturing yields. I believe the yields
will increase a little due to the learning curve.

Income tax rates may be reduced in 2007 due to the orphan drug
dsignation for Maribivir. Also, when the FDA reverses the OGD this
year, or if nothing happens this year with respect to the OGD
decision, management may release an additional portion of the
deferred tax valuation allowance.

Cash, equivalents and short term investments total $255 million at
year end and working capital totals $266 million. This year we will
move closer to a half billion in cash and working capital.

please read attachment carefully

[lancefur]

Down 11% today on the lower reported earnings. This has got to be cheap for this stock now. Maybe a good entry point.

[la-onda]

my only stock are IPXL & VPHM todays price action is a good buying opportunity IMHO, stock is recovering slightly....
cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

this was one of the most manipulated sessions I have ever seen, the wrong information posted by Forbes:

ViroPharma 4Q Net Income Falls
Drugmaker ViroPharma Inc. on Wednesday said fourth-quarter earnings fell 75 percent as net product sales decreased. Net income totaled $18 million or 25 cents per share, versus $72.7 million, or $1.17 per share in the year-ago period. Revenue fell 5 percent to $38.6 million from $40.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Net product sales for its Vancocin treatment for intestinal bacterial infections fell 5 percent to $38.5 million, while milestone and license fee revenue was steady at $141,000. Total costs and expenses increased 10 percent to $13.5 million, with marketing, general and administrative costs more than doubling to $7.1 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected net income of 20 cents per share on revenue of $40 million.
For the year, net income fell 41 percent to $66.7 million, or 95 cents per share, from $113.7 million, or $2.02 per share in 2005. Revenue grew 26 percent to $167.2 million from $132.4 million in 2005.

All serious investors knew that a comparison to Last Year's year-end results would give the wrong "Optics", and sure enough it did.
Why?
It was stated in the VPHM news release:

The decrease in the year-end net income for both comparative periods primarily resulted from the change in income tax from a benefit in 2005 to an expense in 2006. Offsetting factors included the impacts of increased operating income, decreased interest expense and increased interest income in 2006.

Briefing.com update:
VPHM JMP Securities Mkt Outperform $15 » $18
please read attached conference script 
cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

fyi; quoted chart and
attachments (ready for download) 

[la-onda]

just FYI:

1)
ViroPharma "market perform," target price raised
Thursday, March 01, 2007 9:11:18 AM ET
JMP Securities
NEW YORK, March 1 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "market perform" rating on ViroPharma Inc (ticker: VPHM), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $15 to $18.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 4Q EPS ahead of the estimates and the consensus. The biggest upcoming catalyst for ViroPharma is likely to be the Phase II HCV-796 data for chronic hepatitis C in 1H07, leading to the commencement of Phase III in 1H08, the analysts say. The company's share price is expected to be boosted by pipeline progress, JMP Securities adds. The EPS estimate for 2007 has been reduced from $1.18 to $1.11.

2)
Viropharma "buy," estimates raised

Friday, March 02, 2007 8:57:30 AM ET
Lazard Capital Markets
NEW YORK, March 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Lazard Capital maintain their "buy" rating on Viropharma Incorporated (ticker: VPHM), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price is set to $21.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 4Q diluted EPS ahead of the estimates on account of  lower-than-expected expenses. Future catalysts for Viropharma's share price include the data from HCV-796 Phase II trial starting in 3Q07, the initiation of the Maribavir Phase III SOT trial in 2Q07, a Maribavir European partnership in 1H07 and a decision on the Vancocin generic drug applications from the OGD/FDA, the analysts say. The GAAP EPS estimate for 2007 has been raised from $1.07 to $1.15.