CHINA

[catrader]

how high or low do you see this going by jan 07 option expiration?  any opinions are welcomed and appreciated.

[Samantha Stephens]

My 2 cents...
I checked out the options, and I'm not getting a warm fuzzy. People are buying the $10 calls in December and January ... but they're not overpaying for them. Dec options are only $.10 and Jans are $.35. Those look like cheep shots on an upside move for the buyers. It doesn't look to me like the sellers are worried about it going any higher than $10... ish. A surprise of any sort could change all that.

I don't see a ton of put buying ... and there isn't a ton of put Open interest... that tells me that it really isn't expected to go down ... just not sure if the calls will ever get into the money.
-Samantha

[ScottishTrader]

Sold 1/3 of my posiion today at 8.45 giving me a gain on this portion of 15%    Whew!! that leaves me feeling much better about letting the rest run.  My stop for the remainder is currently at 8.21, I may bring that down to 7.90 though to give CHINA a bit more room.  See how things finish up today.

Good trading all!

[rickjust]

hi,
sold half 854.
maxi

[Melf Elf]

The August 17  Breakaway Gap out of the Rectangle put 6.03 IN PLAY .  That got MADE when CHINA made a third hit (Blue #3) to the top of the channel, at 6.08 on September 21.

Math:

4.94 - 4.95 Highs (I use the more conservative one...so, 4.94)
3.85 - Low

4.94 - 3.85 = 1.09 Points + 4.94 = Target: 6.03

Using the higher 4.95...

4.95 - 3.85 = 1.10 Points + 4.95 = Target: 6.05, so they both MADE.

The November 13 gap up from 6.84 looks to be a Measuring Gap, in which case, that puts 9.83 IN PLAY.

Math:

6.84 - High, prior to the Measuing Gap
3.85 - Low for the move, at the bottom of the Rectangle, and bottom of the channel

6.84 - 3.85 = 2.99 Points + 6.84 = Target: 9.83 IN PLAY

Just something to watch for.  Good luck, everybody!  

[ScottishTrader]

Not such a bad day for CHINA really, a pullback was to be expected and it found support at 8.40, breaking the descending pullback and drifting higher for the day.  Just wanted to put this up to give an idea of support levels.  I see support coming in at 8.40 (clear support today), 8.25, 8.03 and 7.90.  Both 8.25 and 7.90 correspond to fib retracement levels from yesterday's move.  clear resistance is at 8.65 and 8.77-8.80, yesterday's highs.  I think I will put partial stops for the remainder of my positiion below 8.25 and 7.90 for now and wait to see if it goes for $9+ as Melf's analysis suggests.

Anyway, I hope this helps people in determiniing their trading plans for this one.  By the way maxi, I'm also really getting into this taking partial profits thing - feels like the way to go for me, and lets me rest easier on the remainder of my position, otherwise I just get too nervous when something moves like this!!

Good trading all.

[setravis]

All CHINA Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.   
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. 

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$

[ScottishTrader]

thanks setravis - its just a shame that it ended up turning the topic title to "china - decent earings"    Doesn't really have the same ring to it as "CHINA - on the brink of a breakout" now does it??

Anyway, keep up the good work - one day we shall have the holy grail of ONE AND ONLY ONE TOPIC FOR EACH AND EVERY STOCK IN THE WORLD!!! Wahahhahah!!!

[setravis]

ScottishTrader,
As per your request ,I will fix the title ! 

[ScottishTrader]

hooray     

and happy thanksgiving setravis 

[rickjust]

By the way maxi, I'm also really getting into this taking partial profits thing - feels like the way to go for me, and lets me rest easier on the remainder of my position, otherwise I just get too nervous when something moves like this!!

Good trading all.

thanks scottish,
i figured on a retrace for china and maybe get back a postion lower. if not thats ok . i have my eye on a couple of others.
i am the same. it works for me to take profits when i can. taking small profits along the way, 5 -10% allows you to get into the mind set of winning which is something you need to do if it hasn't been going so well. you may not make as much but as you go it builds your confidence.
        i noticed david talking a lot about holding longer for the bigger move and he is usually right. but you also have to be comfortable as well. speaking of holding for bigger moves. take a look at aapl chart from 04 to now. basically just one big move!
maxi

[catrader]

china still on fire!  kool.

[ScottishTrader]

CHINA update: Continued strength on Friday, despite the short trading day.  China broke out first thing on solid volume reaching a high of 9.20, but then pulled back for the remainder of the day.  It seemed to find some support around 8.90 though.  This week I am looking for a solid move into the $9 range.  Support should come in around 8.77-8.80, 8.63 and below that at 8.37.  For now my stop is sitting at 8.34, but I will be looking to raise that again early next week if the move progresses.  Volume looks excellent for this move.  Good trading all.

[Melf Elf]

The November 13 gap up from 6.84 looks to be a Measuring Gap, in which case, that puts 9.83 IN PLAY.

Math:

6.84 - High, prior to the Measuing Gap
3.85 - Low for the move, at the bottom of the Rectangle, and bottom of the channel

6.84 - 3.85 = 2.99 Points + 6.84 = Target: 9.83 IN PLAY

Just something to watch for.  Good luck, everybody!  

The Measuring Gap target of 9.83 MADE this morning.

[la-onda]

CDC Corporation Reaffirms Guidance for 2006 and 2007
Thursday January 11, 7:46 am ET

ATLANTA & BEIJING, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CDC Corporation (NASDAQ: CHINA - News), focused on enterprise software applications, mobile applications and online games, today reaffirmed its previously announced guidance for 2006 with total revenues forecast in the range of (U.S.) $303 million to $307 million, an increase of approximately 24 percent from last year and adjusted net income(a) in the range of $32 million to $33.3 million, an increase of more than 100% from the prior year.

For 2007, CDC Corporation also reaffirms prior guidance with total revenues forecast in the range of $401 million to $411 million, an increase of approximately 33 percent from 2006, and adjusted net income in the range of $55 million to $60 million, an increase of approximately 76 percent from 2006. The company plans to report preliminary earnings estimates for Q4 by early February.

"We are very pleased to reaffirm our Guidance for 2006 and 2007 which reflects continued growth throughout our operating companies," said Peter Yip, CEO of CDC Corporation. "We expect strong year-end results that stem from both robust organic growth and the successful acquisitions we have made this year. As we look forward to 2007, we expect this trend to continue."

(a) Adjusted Financial Measures

To supplement the financial measures prepared in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), the company uses Non-GAAP financial measures for net income and other line items, which are adjusted from results based on GAAP. These Non-GAAP measures are provided to enhance the user's overall understanding of the company's current financial performance and its prospects for the future. The company believes the Non-GAAP results provide useful information to both management and investors. Although the company continues to report GAAP results to investors, it believes the inclusion of Non-GAAP financial measures provides further clarity in its financial reporting. These Non-GAAP financial measures may be different from Non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies, and should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, but should not be considered a substitute for or superior to GAAP measures.

The Company defines adjusted net income as net income adjusted for certain purchase accounting related charges and restructuring expenses. The purchase accounting related charges are primarily related to the non-cash amortization of acquisition related intangibles and non-cash tax charges related to our utilization of acquired tax net operating loss carry forwards. Restructuring charges typically result as we consolidate acquired companies to achieve operational synergies. The Company cannot at this point in time, without unreasonable efforts, quantify such purchase accounting related charges and restructuring expenses.

A reconciliation of 2005 adjusted net income to GAAP can be found in the Company's earnings release for the full year 2005 dated April 12, 2006.

The estimates presented in this press release are preliminary and are based on management's belief and best estimate.