Daytrading with Consensus

[Ares]

Update:

UYG
#1 at 29.11, open
#2 at 30.55, open
#3 at 33.45, open
#4 at 36.25, open
#5 at 34.56, open
#6 at 32.10, open
#7 at 32.05, open
#8 at 31.51, open
#9 at 30.58, open
#10 at 30.09, open
#11 at 29.12, open
#12 at 29.01, open
#13 at 28.71, open
#14 at 27.91, open
#15 at 27.66, open
#16 at 27.52, open
#17 at 26.47, open
#18 at 24.56, open
#19 at 22.17, open
#20 at 21.01, open


SKF

#1 at 144.44, open
#2 at 137.57, open
#3 at 122.72, open

The 5 minute chart of SKF showed a pierce above the uptrending ltl and touched the top 100% linear regression line when I bought UYG at 21.01.

I looked at it as a fakeout/ volatility expansion on SKF.

Instead of shorting it, I went long UYG.

In retrospect, I should probably waited for RSI2 to hit near 100 and for the 5 minute UYG to be outide an expanded bollinger band (for a momentum low entry).

Oh well, next time - hopefully I'll remember and would be able to control my emotions better.

[Ares]

Possible Wolfewave on SKF's 5 minute chart?

Some traders are looking at it as a possible head and shoulder forming using yahoo real time chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SKF#chart1:symbol=skf;range=5d;indicator=sma(50,200)+volume+stochasticslow;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=67693&mid=67693&tof=3&frt=2#67693

[Ares]

SKFAug8b:

It shows the WW#5 fakeout
Added a Wolfewave target line #6
Saw what looked like a bear flag forming.

[Ares]

Aug8c:

Took a shot of "the spike".

[Ares]

SKFAug8d:

Took a shot of the break down of the perceived bear flag's rtl.

Added a yellow line to what looked like a left shoulder.

Added an upsloping neckline.

[Ares]

SKFAug8e:

Took a shot of the neckline breakdown on volume.

[Ares]

SKFAug9a:

Changed the colors to be able to identify some patterns better.

I almost sold my UYG to take profits when the wolfewave target #6 was hit but decided to hold for the head and shoulder target.

Hopefully, it will get made.

We'll see what the market decides to do on monday.

So far, Oil seems to be cooperating.

[Ares]

New possible neckline on SKF?

[Ares]

Looking at a longer term daily chart of SKF, price went below the 0.618 level.
Looking at a shorter term, price seemed to have just touched the 0.786 level.

Drew a pink upsloping trendline.

With Oil down, that pink trendline may break and if it does...

[Ares]

Here's a shot of SKF's hourly chart:

I hid the other fibonacci levels and retained the 0.618 (long term level) and 0.786 (short term level).

The yellow fibonacci lines may not be accurate (coz I can't fine tune the mouse to connect to the 211.75, high 89.47 low (shorter term), and 66.37 low (longer term).

I thickened the red resistance lines that I could eyeball and they seem to be near the linear regression levels.

I also thickened the pink upsloping trendline (drawn on the daily chart).

I'm hoping for SKF to bounce up towards the 146.82 or at least the 125.53  level but so far the odds seem to be in  favour with a break below the upsloping pink line.

If the upsloping pink line does break down, how low will it go?

104.23
82.94
61.64

Anything could happen, I guess we'll see how it turns out next week.

gl

[Ares]

I just recently posted this at the yahoo SKF board:

" I tried to label the chart including Irrevernt's neckline for a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern on SKF's hourly chart.

I still can't find the cup with handle on a chart with settings at 20year/daily.

What I still see is a possible head and shoulder pattern.

Taking into consideration that oil may spike on monday (due to the battle beetween Russia and Georgia - and the mobilization of US battleships near Iran),

how high SKF go before swinging back down?

I see a resistance levels on the daily chart's swing highs at
150.10
146.93
140.73
for a possible right shoulder.

On the hourly chart,
I currently see linear regression resistance lines at
125.53
146.82

Will the recent head and shoulder target of 111.97 still get made inspite of the new developments?

Will the "pink" upsloping trendline still get broken and cause a technical breakdown?

Will it still go towards the target at the 104s and towards the 85's?

How would SKF react to the news?

Would it react fundamentally or technically?

Maybe both?

These may be the same questions running through the minds of other traders.

We will have to wait and see what the market's verdict tommorow will be.

For now, we could speculate.

Looking forward to your input. "

[Ares]

Here's a "zoomed out" SKF daily chart:

I erased some labels to clear up some clutter but didn't redo the yellow and other trendlines.

[Ares]

Here is a shot of SKF closing below the upsloping (possible neckline) pink trendline and the 200sma on the daily and hourly charts.

[Ares]

Here is a shot of the 5 minute UYG chart with the percieved cup with handle before the break out:

[Ares]

Here is a shot of the 5 minute UYG chart with the percieved cup and handle after the break out: