SILC

[Stocky2000]

david randolph:
For you people that bought at $21, may I remind you that your entry point shouldn't be a factor in your trading decisions, because the market simply doesn't care, it doesn't even know. We're talking about a 20% loss which for a diversified portfolio shouldn't cause much damage to the overall portfolio performance. For example, the Main Portfolio took 20 losses of more than 20% and that didn't prevent it from being up 297% since inception. In fact, I believe that helped because most of those stocks kept going down.

i strongly dissagree the entry point is more than 50% of a good trade....it doesnt matter if the market cares or not.....if you buy for example  on breakouts and sell if it doesnt happen....you never have 20% losses....the right entry technically is very important as we saw here with silc up from 4 to 21 in few months. Then an entry at 21 has to be tied with tight stops as the stock already was up serveral 100 percent.

[Se7en]

Not everybody has the funds to diversify their portfolio like 3SOF, so a 20% drop can hurt, it does for me ...  

[Stocky2000]

some sentences that are burned in my brain while trading: 

the first loss it the best loss

buy just stocks that go the right direction (like momentum)

is volume there easier to exit if something wrong

where is my stop / target

what do i buy next or sell next ?

protect my capital

i appreciate it to trade every day...it s a pleasure

which sector is hot ?

what could happen overnight with the stock (for ex. china stock)

risk/reward here?


....

[guitarman]

Thanks David
I am out of all SILC now.
If there was one of your picks that you would recommend to recoup losses, what would it be?
There are a lot of pics of yours (on video too!) that I just haven't been able to get in to.
Thanks and Best
GMan

[Garoh]

Too bad 

I expected this one to stop at 17.70 two weeks ago but today before the market open I so a very bad sign which showed a 17.55 target BUT didn't expect this drop 

I saw these movements many time especially with Israeli company !!

I see ugly chart on both weekly and daily ....we could see a temprorily rebound after the stock is oversold now ....
David which option would you choose ?

It's oversold now .. I think it's not the time to sell now maybe higher ..

[buddjas1]

buddjas1 and others wrote that around $19 we would be at rock bottom prices, and I agreed, that's why I took my stop out, because I was afraid I could be shaken out not by a decisive sell signal, but because of whipsawed market action.

But yesterday the market proved the $18.5 - $19.5 bulls wrong.

Actually, I recommended selling at $25 after earnings release.  I thought that selling at $19 or whatever was the wrong move (but I never said that $19 was "rock bottom").  I still view SILC as one of your best long term investments and there is no sense selling at $17, when you still have 35% left (strong hands).  Today's sell was the wrong move and a year from now (or two) you will regret it.

[yukiii]

buddjas1 and others wrote that around $19 we would be at rock bottom prices, and I agreed, that's why I took my stop out, because I was afraid I could be shaken out not by a decisive sell signal, but because of whipsawed market action.

But yesterday the market proved the $18.5 - $19.5 bulls wrong.

Actually, I recommended selling at $25 after earnings release.  I thought that selling at $19 or whatever was the wrong move (but I never said that $19 was "rock bottom").  I still view SILC as one of your best long term investments and there is no sense selling at $17, when you still have 35% left (strong hands).  Today's sell was the wrong move and a year from now (or two) you will regret it.

Seems like we had this conversation before, buddjas1 I think we both recommended selling at $25.

I also said    

NTES
EXM
ROY
TZOO
were bad choices along with PAL JAKK and GW, but anyways live and learn I guess.
Hopefully we can move on from this and make some changes to way we select stocks for the portfolio
and timing.
1. don't fall in love with a company.
2. take your money and run to come back another day.
3. portfolio needs to be more diversified.
4. Don't keep picking stocks at there highs like GW PAL TZOO ROY EXM after the news is out unless they have a valid reason to keep going up like EMC, GOOGLE, APPLE, RIG, DO
5. Don't rely on a model to pick stocks or a system, each company is a different situation.
Hope this help some as I keep repeating myself.
Back to trading...........................

Buying CTGX a good growing small cap.
a smallcap leader in one of
my favorite markets...IT services. Unlike many, CTGX survived the IT
bloodbath following the busted dot-com bubble and is on the verge of
making a next-level leap due to their highly focused strategy of serving
in-demand niche markets. The best part? Global healthcare IT trends and
government initiatives are creating opportunities that play directly to
the company's experience and expertise. CTGX survived the demand
declines, in part, by providing low margin IT staffing while their IT
solutions business suffered. Now the company has a plan in place to
regain a balanced 50/50% revenue mix between IT staffing and IT
solutions revenue and it seems to be working. Between the U.S., U.K. and
EU, CTGX is on the verge of layering in several higher margin business
opportunities that should elevate profit margins back to respectable
levels and create earnings growth that shareholders haven't seen in
years. The many opportunities on the horizon provide a significant
upside while the 5-year trading base and core business provides the
downside support.

Buying SPIL on the dip today. should resume upwards tomorrow.

[Garoh]

buddjas1 and others wrote that around $19 we would be at rock bottom prices, and I agreed, that's why I took my stop out, because I was afraid I could be shaken out not by a decisive sell signal, but because of whipsawed market action.

But yesterday the market proved the $18.5 - $19.5 bulls wrong.

Actually, I recommended selling at $25 after earnings release.  I thought that selling at $19 or whatever was the wrong move (but I never said that $19 was "rock bottom").  I still view SILC as one of your best long term investments and there is no sense selling at $17, when you still have 35% left (strong hands).  Today's sell was the wrong move and a year from now (or two) you will regret it.

Seems like we had this conversation before, buddjas1 I think we both recommended selling at $25.

I also said    

NTES
EXM
ROY
TZOO
were bad choices along with PAL JAKK and GW, but anyways live and learn I guess.
Hopefully we can move on from this and make some changes to way we select stocks for the portfolio
and timing.
1. don't fall in love with a company.
2. take your money and run to come back another day.
3. portfolio needs to be more diversified.
4. Don't keep picking stocks at there highs like GW PAL TZOO ROY EXM after the news is out unless they have a valid reason to keep going up like EMC, GOOGLE, APPLE, RIG, DO
5. Don't rely on a model to pick stocks or a system, each company is a different situation.
Hope this help some as I keep repeating myself.
Back to trading...........................

Buying CTGX a good growing small cap.
a smallcap leader in one of
my favorite markets...IT services. Unlike many, CTGX survived the IT
bloodbath following the busted dot-com bubble and is on the verge of
making a next-level leap due to their highly focused strategy of serving
in-demand niche markets. The best part? Global healthcare IT trends and
government initiatives are creating opportunities that play directly to
the company's experience and expertise. CTGX survived the demand
declines, in part, by providing low margin IT staffing while their IT
solutions business suffered. Now the company has a plan in place to
regain a balanced 50/50% revenue mix between IT staffing and IT
solutions revenue and it seems to be working. Between the U.S., U.K. and
EU, CTGX is on the verge of layering in several higher margin business
opportunities that should elevate profit margins back to respectable
levels and create earnings growth that shareholders haven't seen in
years. The many opportunities on the horizon provide a significant
upside while the 5-year trading base and core business provides the
downside support.

Buying SPIL on the dip today. should resume upwards tomorrow.

Very nice pick Yukiii

[eggman11]

Yukii,

Your last post on the SILC board was bullish (June 22) you said your target on SILC is $24 - based on your shares you recently bought earlier at the mid $18s. Does the following mean you changed your mind and sold it?

David and Everyone,

I am currently holding to SILC, I still believe that with 12 straight quarters of revenue growth, the private placement placement at $20.50 (to investors who probably received a lot more information thean we did), An insider Mark Sussman purchased 60,000 shares between 19-21 in April on top of buying over 90,000 shares earlier in the month of april in the 13 range. I believe this is one of those major pullbacks that multibaggers have from time to time.

buddjas1 and others wrote that around $19 we would be at rock bottom prices, and I agreed, that's why I took my stop out, because I was afraid I could be shaken out not by a decisive sell signal, but because of whipsawed market action.

But yesterday the market proved the $18.5 - $19.5 bulls wrong.

Actually, I recommended selling at $25 after earnings release.  I thought that selling at $19 or whatever was the wrong move (but I never said that $19 was "rock bottom").  I still view SILC as one of your best long term investments and there is no sense selling at $17, when you still have 35% left (strong hands).  Today's sell was the wrong move and a year from now (or two) you will regret it.

Seems like we had this conversation before, buddjas1 I think we both recommended selling at $25.

I also said    

NTES
EXM
ROY
TZOO
were bad choices along with PAL JAKK and GW, but anyways live and learn I guess.
Hopefully we can move on from this and make some changes to way we select stocks for the portfolio
and timing.
1. don't fall in love with a company.
2. take your money and run to come back another day.
3. portfolio needs to be more diversified.
4. Don't keep picking stocks at there highs like GW PAL TZOO ROY EXM after the news is out unless they have a valid reason to keep going up like EMC, GOOGLE, APPLE, RIG, DO
5. Don't rely on a model to pick stocks or a system, each company is a different situation.
Hope this help some as I keep repeating myself.
Back to trading...........................

Buying CTGX a good growing small cap.
a smallcap leader in one of
my favorite markets...IT services. Unlike many, CTGX survived the IT
bloodbath following the busted dot-com bubble and is on the verge of
making a next-level leap due to their highly focused strategy of serving
in-demand niche markets. The best part? Global healthcare IT trends and
government initiatives are creating opportunities that play directly to
the company's experience and expertise. CTGX survived the demand
declines, in part, by providing low margin IT staffing while their IT
solutions business suffered. Now the company has a plan in place to
regain a balanced 50/50% revenue mix between IT staffing and IT
solutions revenue and it seems to be working. Between the U.S., U.K. and
EU, CTGX is on the verge of layering in several higher margin business
opportunities that should elevate profit margins back to respectable
levels and create earnings growth that shareholders haven't seen in
years. The many opportunities on the horizon provide a significant
upside while the 5-year trading base and core business provides the
downside support.

Buying SPIL on the dip today. should resume upwards tomorrow.

[yukiii]

Yukii,

Your last post on the SILC board was bullish (June 22) you said your target on SILC is $24 - based on your shares you recently bought earlier at the mid $18s. Does the following mean you changed your mind and sold it?

David and Everyone,

I am currently holding to SILC, I still believe that with 12 straight quarters of revenue growth, the private placement placement at $20.50 (to investors who probably received a lot more information thean we did), An insider Mark Sussman purchased 60,000 shares between 19-21 in April on top of buying over 90,000 shares earlier in the month of april in the 13 range. I believe this is one of those major pullbacks that multibaggers have from time to time.



I bought and sold SILC like 5  times, my last purchase was recently at $18.65 will buy more if it goes below $17.00
yukii

2 more stocks to watch NSTC   Ness Tech.   
GUID   Guidance Software   

[Houlahan]

I sold this am at 17.43.
I am like Se7en. I pick 3 or 4 stocks, because that is all I can afford.
I picked from the Fire portfolio and then one from main.
I have SILC (sold today), CIMT, GIGM, and TZOO (bought on down slide after David sold, entry 29.31).
It was good for me to sell SILC.
I hope SILC recovers for everyone holding.
My Best to everyone.

[Stocky2000]

Yukii,

Your last post on the SILC board was bullish (June 22) you said your target on SILC is $24 - based on your shares you recently bought earlier at the mid $18s. Does the following mean you changed your mind and sold it?

David and Everyone,

I am currently holding to SILC, I still believe that with 12 straight quarters of revenue growth, the private placement placement at $20.50 (to investors who probably received a lot more information thean we did), An insider Mark Sussman purchased 60,000 shares between 19-21 in April on top of buying over 90,000 shares earlier in the month of april in the 13 range. I believe this is one of those major pullbacks that multibaggers have from time to time.



I bought and sold SILC like 5  times, my last purchase was recently at $18.65 will buy more if it goes below $17.00
yukii

2 more stocks to watch NSTC   Ness Tech.   
GUID   Guidance Software   




Yukki is averaging down...good luck...(for me this is very amateur trading...where is the bottom?...no knows for sure..sorry) why not buy the bounce? average down means no safety for sure. Never fall in love with comany average up and sell the breakdown.

[yukiii]

Yukii,

Your last post on the SILC board was bullish (June 22) you said your target on SILC is $24 - based on your shares you recently bought earlier at the mid $18s. Does the following mean you changed your mind and sold it?

David and Everyone,

I am currently holding to SILC, I still believe that with 12 straight quarters of revenue growth, the private placement placement at $20.50 (to investors who probably received a lot more information thean we did), An insider Mark Sussman purchased 60,000 shares between 19-21 in April on top of buying over 90,000 shares earlier in the month of april in the 13 range. I believe this is one of those major pullbacks that multibaggers have from time to time.



I bought and sold SILC like 5  times, my last purchase was recently at $18.65 will buy more if it goes below $17.00
yukii

2 more stocks to watch NSTC   Ness Tech.   
GUID   Guidance Software   




Yukki is averaging down...good luck...(for me this is very amateur trading...where is the bottom?...no knows for sure..sorry) why not buy the bounce? average down means no safety for sure. Never fall in love with comany average up and sell the breakdown.

Well I have been in SILC since $4.00 so I think I know what I am doing. What ever works for you bro...... There are all different ways to trade a stock, the main thing is not to take big losses. I like
buying bottoms or close to the bottom. If you buy the bounce and sell the breakdown you will probable not do very well in the longterm.

[realcoolhead]

David, I understand your decision. No one said you should hold a stock forever.

However I have two general concerns after following your portfolio for over half a year. One is about your exit strategy. You seem to be overly optimistic about these small-cap stocks. You choose industry average P/E to gauge an optimal selling point, but these small-cap stocks rarely command high P/E enjoyed by big players. Also stocks outside USA usually trade at discount because of perceived additional risk. Moreover, so far I still don't understand how Yahoo calculates that industry average P/E you rely on, as they sometimes fluctuate more than 10% week over week. Do I have an answer, no. That's why I didn't say this earlier. I know it is a tough job. My hope is that you will apply your experience and maybe your instinct to a certain degree in deciding when to sell. Now this may sound strange from my mouth because I have always been promoting consistency yet instinct is rarely consistent ... But think about where your strength lies after being in the market for over 10 years? How much edge do you have over other people in analyzing company fundamentals? With your due-diligence you are advantageous over other "lazy" people, but you have no way to beat those insiders. Unfortunately the smaller a company is, the greater those insiders can manipulate or at least influence the stock price. It is always somewhat a gamble investing in those small-caps, especially micro-caps.

The other concern is about diversification. Right now you are running a concentrated portolfio with a huge beta. I undertand that in order to achieve bigger return one has to accept greater risk. But there is an optimal point and portfolio theory says it should be around 30 or so across all the main sectors. It is certainly exciting to grow portfolio 2-3% everyday, but it is also gut-wrenching to see your portfolio swing both sides like a yoyo ...  and over the long-run a smoother ride has a much more staying power. I always find it puzzling when people say "I don't have enough money to buy many stocks". With commission so low to day, like at interactivebrokers.com each trade is just a buck or two, is this the real issue? I think the hidden message when people say that is "I want gambling for exceptional returns! I don't like 20% each year, that's lame!" There is a certain amount of insincerity here. To this end, I think that Fire Portfolio is meaningless, not only the performance is almost the same as main portfolio now, it allures some people to think striking gold is possible. So what do people do with a couple of thousand dollars and think making 20% each year is boring? Work to earn more! Work for a couple of months and save up to, say, $20K. How hard is that? Then you will see what 20% return each year can bring you: you got close to $5 million over 30 years ... What if David "keeps his words"   and presents you with 30% each year instead of 20%? Well, you will get almost $5 million just in 12 years!  (well, I ignored the tax you will have to pay but you get the message ...)  I bet if everyone here is looking for a "mere" 20%-30% return each year. People won't be so stressed and David can be more at ease too.

So in summary, what I want to say is: let's work on a better exit strategy, have a more diversified portfolio and people, lower your unrealistic expectation!

Just a few words for realcoolhead: "I hope you understand this decision, the market clearly proved me wrong and there are significant risks. As I'll keep working to find attractive picks, I expect the Main to deliver 30%-40% return this year, which is in line with our long term goals. Thanks for your support!"

[Se7en]

20%/year, that's something like 1,66666666666667%/month, I'm sorry but you don't have to be a technical or fundamental analysis guru to achieve this!

And not everyone can use these foreign brokers or is not willing to do it because of the lack of visibility, there's no office of one these foreign brokers in my country, I'd rather pay some extra money  for a broker where I can address myself too in my own language or that is based in my country!

Also, not everyone has a starting capital of 30,40,50k $ so people need to choose between the picks, I don't even own half of them, maximum 2 or 3 and I bet I'm not the only one here but what if you pick the 2-3 'bad' ones most of the time...

I prefer a combination of fundamental/technical analysis because you can't exclude one imo. How many % was the 3SOF portfolio up before the 'new path' was chosen, I believe it was a few 100's in a couple of years time, that also proves a lot imo ...

This is all my opinion and I know how much work David is putting into this and I appreciate that very much but I don't think it's working out for me, maybe I'm not 'made' for investing in stocks or have the right attitude but it's also not good when Im' feeling not comfortable with it.

Btw, sold my SILC at 17.40$ today ...