Small cap power: CIMT

[JKN]

Wow, CVV jogged my memory...I had to go back to my records from 2005.  I sold at $2.16 with a small loss.  Two weeks after I sold it jumped to +$3.00. 

Lessons learned...

Kent

[Ares]

Here's how I see CIMT's daily chart.

By the way, I liked that "stock market talking, the market is open thread".

I've been trying to access the chat room but it doesn't seem to be working properly.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your comments Garoh and njshiva

Wow, CVV jogged my memory...I had to go back to my records from 2005.  I sold at $2.16 with a small loss.  Two weeks after I sold it jumped to +$3.00. 

Lessons learned...

Kent

Yes, and now at $9, a 316% rise from your sale at $2.16. And why did you sell? Because you were focused on short term technical information. From these experiences with other similar low volume stocks we know we can't pay attention to short term technical information, if we want to reap the big reward.

Here's how I see CIMT's daily chart.

By the way, I liked that "stock market talking, the market is open thread".

I've been trying to access the chat room but it doesn't seem to be working properly.

The chat works, but it is empty. If you're looking for day trading chit chat, tick by tick analysis, short term technical information, don't look inside the 3 Stocks Premium area. I've been a day trader myself for 5 long years and I'll never go back to it.

As for CIMT, the company is set for strong profitability, and with that the stock will inevitably rise. The big investments in Research & Development were already made in the past:



This is one of the reasons I expect the net profit margin to increase from the 9.24% achieved in Q4 2006 to increase to 15% or so in the future:



My valuation model tells me that given my estimates, CIMT will be a $27.18 stock three years from now and the optimal selling price today is $17.42, so I'll keep on holding CIMT through all the technical noise.

[mbaugh]

I am surprised that we still have someone unloading CIMT on a daily basis.  I am still holding, I'm just confused as to who keeps selling into each uptick we have.  I figure that the closer we get to earnings the stock would rise some.  Any questions or comments?

[Kublakhan]

Any questions or comments?

$3.30 currently.  What's the next support level?

[Houlahan]

When are they due to report?

I did find this:
Manufacturers attending the upcoming Austech 2007 show (Melbourne, May 22-25) will have the opportunity to view Cimatron's products, including the newly released CimatronE Version 8, at the Headland booth E40.

This should generate interest.

[gix330]

I sold half of my shares of CIMT around 3.6 on 24th after it keeps dropping from the new high and touched 3.52 on 23rd. And the stock is a bit on the bearish side, so David, do you still hold this in strong hand?

[ygtrdr]

I think this is just part of being in a microcap stock. I don't put too much trust in technical analysis with such a low float.

[nullzero]

Perfect time to buy when everyone else is bailing out from being scared. The weak hands are almost all out now.

[Garoh]

Well this is not interesting at all 

probably will see 2.94 If we don't get any news to stop this pressure !!

[David Randolph]

I am surprised that we still have someone unloading CIMT on a daily basis.  I am still holding, I'm just confused as to who keeps selling into each uptick we have.  I figure that the closer we get to earnings the stock would rise some.  Any questions or comments?

The short term selling doesn't mean anything for the long term. People are selling because they're afraid, not because of a fundamental motive. This happens will most small cap, low volume, big gainers.

Any questions or comments?

$3.30 currently.  What's the next support level?

Well, an healthy correction should stop around current levels, since the stock made a 50% Fibonacci retracement. But it can go down to touch the 50 days SMA (although I don't think so at this stage), which currently stands at $2.79.

When are they due to report?

I did find this:
Manufacturers attending the upcoming Austech 2007 show (Melbourne, May 22-25) will have the opportunity to view Cimatron's products, including the newly released CimatronE Version 8, at the Headland booth E40.

This should generate interest.

Probably May 17.

I sold half of my shares of CIMT around 3.6 on 24th after it keeps dropping from the new high and touched 3.52 on 23rd. And the stock is a bit on the bearish side, so David, do you still hold this in strong hand?

Absolutely, holding my full position bought at $2.90.

I think this is just part of being in a microcap stock. I don't put too much trust in technical analysis with such a low float.

I agree.

Perfect time to buy when everyone else is bailing out from being scared. The weak hands are almost all out now.

I agree.

Well this is not interesting at all 

probably will see 2.94 If we don't get any news to stop this pressure !!

It has nothing to do with news in my opinion. The stock will claw back up soon, after an extreme point of fear is reached.

I'm expecting a big reward from this stock, but one needs to ignore the short term volatility to win.

Good luck

[David Randolph]

If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:



There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.

And the future was:



I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.

My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.

[Garoh]

David You'er right with every word you wrote , it's 100% true ...

but  people are affraid , they don't have the knowledge like you ....

just a few words like what you just wrote would make them calm down 

Nobody can garantee the future ...

thanks for your efforts to eveything in its right place

[David Randolph]

Nobody can garantee the future ...

Right, please note that I don't guarantee the future, what I'm saying is that you can't predict the future using short term technical information, so the breakdown today is meaningless.

As I look to the fundamental landscape, I see a $26.5 M global software company that just turned profitable. If profitability continues, the stock will rise a lot from current levels. Company officials expect profitability to continue and expand, after years of cost cutting and restructuring.

But, as you said, nobody knows the future. I hope I'm right on CIMT. Time will tell.

[BigSully1]

If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:



There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.

And the future was:



I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.

My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.

David you make  excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more. But I did almost as bad as selling on the breakdown. After the frustration of holding a good while and seeing it hit $5.50 several times, only to fall back each time, I figured I would outsmart em next time so I put in a sell order somewhere above $5 for most of my shares and forgot about it.. Turns out I got severely outsmarted. The only caveat was that I got I think $6.28 for them on that earnings morning gap. Still severely painful and a lesson learned.