Session of 03/14/2007

[WallStreetnBio]

I'm interested in studying stocks that can benefit from a potential Chinese consumption boom. I'm thinking XING, CHINA, JADE, BIDU, what else?

PCU, SLV, EEM, FXI

CHL, FMCN, HMIN, HOKU, SOLF

[David Randolph]

I'm interested in studying stocks that can benefit from a potential Chinese consumption boom. I'm thinking XING, CHINA, JADE, BIDU, what else?

PCU, SLV, EEM, FXI

CHL, FMCN, HMIN, HOKU, SOLF

Damn, too late Prodigy, the poll is already running. But keep those for tomorrow's poll, I'm interested in them, thanks

[kpusan]

ASTI over 40% today 

[nullzero]

Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

[David Randolph]

Ok, GIGM and CHINA were the winners. I have AMRN, NVTL, GIGM and CHINA to cover today.

Thanks, see ya

[nicknite20]

Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

Do you expect some fallout from the subprime chaos here?

[nullzero]

Bought some CFC july 07 strike 30 puts today.

Do you expect some fallout from the subprime chaos here?

Most definately talk is cheap with the subprime lenders... CFC managment is pumping up there stock price by going on CNBC releasing statements saying they will survive and do fine etc... Fact is you can never predict if the people you lended to are going to pay you back. CFC is the 4th largest subprime lenders in the U.S.... there is no way in hell that they are magically going to be bloodied up by the fallout. Also talk is cheap but actions speak volumes... why is it that insiders are cashing out millions of dollars worth of stock the last few weeks if things are supposely going to be ok.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CFC

[nicknite20]

nullzero, u have a point. I think i'll follow you on Jul puts.

[HomeBound]

Careful with CFC, they are much stronger then LEND. 

[nullzero]

Careful with CFC, they are much stronger then LEND. 

Its relatively safe considering we havent tested the summer lows as of yet. Chances are CFC wont go bankrupt but they will most likely encounter very weak earnings and outlook. Considering that this market is looking more bearish then last summer correction and that CFC can very easily sink below 32s... I would say its a good play.

[Windsurfer]

For what it is worth here is one point of view on the current market condition:

OUR MARVELOUS RECESSION METER

We use some very complex machinery for making economic predictions. At the moment, the overall readouts are pointing to a slowing U.S. economy.

However, when it comes to predicting recessions, there are only three gauges we pay close attention to. The first of these is industrial commodity prices. When recessions are about to begin, demand for commodities falls and so do prices. Last week, however, industrial commodities soared to an all-time high. That's a clear vote against recession, at least for another six months.

Our second gauge is an assortment of stock market technical indicators. Most important of these is the relative strength of small-cap stocks. Like the canary in the mine shaft, small-caps are the first to sense a recession coming on. However, the RS of the small-caps is close to all-time highs at the moment. So that's two votes against recession.

The final gauge is one we have worried about a little recently – unemployment insurance claims. Naturally, as the economy starts to recede workers get laid off and UI claims rise. In recent weeks, there has been an increase in UI claims. But last week they declined, so the UIC situation isn't pointing to a recession either, at least not strongly.

If a recession were likely, at least one of these three gauges would be in the danger zone. But at the moment, UIC is only in the amber zone, and the other two are green.

So, with no recession in the offing, we prefer to see the current market correction as a buying opportunity. If you see a promising stock, you can buy today and enjoy little market risk. Most likely, a rising market will benefit the purchase you make.

[nicknite20]

windsurfer, there was an article in WSJ a couple of months back stating that when the yield curve is inverted for a prolonged period of time, 6 out of 7 times a recession follows in 9-12 months..that puts it around end 2007.

[nullzero]

CFC heading into red

[TraderStar]

I may join you in the CFC puts, but not today .. I would like to see it rally some more which I think will happen over the next few days.

[WallStreetnBio]

I like the CFC puts as well...what about puts on HOG? Its tied to the middle class subprime thing in a way