ASTI

[David Randolph]

I'm waiting for a press release saying NHY increased its stake in ASTI to 35%, after converting warrants to buy shares at $11. NHY has about $5 B in cash, so no problem providing the millions to ASTI ($72 M in total warrants conversion). This should provide another boost on the stock, to above $20.

Longer term, you know, ASTI has a remarkable technology to put our buildings working using energy from the sun, not the power grid, so ... it has a bright future.

I'll hold ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

The more I study ASTI and other solar plays, the more I get convinced ASTI is the best pick in the field.

ASTI has an innovative technology, a very strong balance sheet and the distribution capabilities of a $53 B giant named Norsdk Hydro, which owns 35% of ASTI (I'm assuming NHY will buy an additional 12% of ASTI when the warrants B are converted at $11, since the stock is trading way above that level).

I guess ASTI needed a breather after a 100% gain in just 7 sessions, but the stock seems poised to make another leg up, perhaps another 100% move, after this consolidation period.

I'll hold ASTI for the long term.

[kslifka]

Looking real good today. Would be nice to close above $19.

[David Randolph]

Looking real good today. Would be nice to close above $19.

You were asking for too much kslifka

But still, a 6.4% advance day wasn't bad. I guess volume wasn't strong enough to push beyond $19, also because other solar plays got weaker throughout the day. But ASTI is the best, in my view (I just wish I had stronger hands in the past, but hopefully I've learned my lesson).

I wonder if ASTI will wait for the news that NHY increased its stake to 35% before pushing above $20. I don't put into question that the news will come and the stock will be above $20 in the not so distant future ...

I'll hold ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

ASTI filed a form S-3 because of the class B warrants we've been talking about:

Form S-3/A

«If all of the Class B public warrants, representative's warrants, and Class A warrants and Class B warrants underlying the representative's warrants listed above are exercised, we will receive proceeds of up to $75,666,250 before deducting expenses estimated at $35,000.»

Everything is going as expected. Over the next couple of weeks I expect a press release saying NHY increased its stake in ASTI to 35%.

I wonder if misinformed investors will sell ASTI today, because they didn't know of the warrants and think this is new information. It isn't. If they sell, they're creating a great buying opportunity which will show over the short term.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

[David Randolph]

ASTI went down 8% yesterday, in tandem with other solar plays. I think this happened because the oil price went back down below $80 a barrel. I don't think this is a valid reason, not just because probably the oil bull market will continue, but also because solar energy will have its space, even if oil goes down, due to governments wanting to diversify their countries energy sources, not to be so dependent on the Middle East oil.

There were some good news out after the close (but not very significant):

• US Air Force Increases Funding of Ascent Solar Technologies' High Efficiency Solar Cell Program
Business Wire (Thu 6:00am)

I think ASTI will consolidate between $15.75 and $19.75 and then it will ultimately go beyond $20 as 2008 approaches.

[David Randolph]

I think ASTI will consolidate between $15.75 and $19.75 and then it will ultimately go beyond $20 as 2008 approaches.

ASTI hit the $15.75 support and inched higher. While some people are taking profits, selling because the stock had such a big run, because it still doesn't have meaningful revenues and stuff like that, hedge funds and mutual funds are pilling in significant positions:

SCHEDULE 13G

This was just out, Stark Master Fund owns 526,662 ASTI shares. These guys won't be selling anytime soon ... I expect the stock to rally strongly on this news today.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

[stocky]

Another thing to note is that the pullback is on diminishing volume in ASTI. If the big boys are rushing in then it must be something.

[David Randolph]

This was just out, Stark Master Fund owns 526,662 ASTI shares. These guys won't be selling anytime soon ... I expect the stock to rally strongly on this news today.

ASTI behaved as expected, rising 7.1% Friday. I expect the stock to now test the $19.75 resistance level and ultimately break this consolidation phase on the upside, especially when we get the news release saying NHY increased its stake in ASTI to 35% and ASTI received $75 M from the warrants B conversion into common shares.

[jorgegr]

Nasty dive hope it can recover shortly. Ther news is here:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-20048302.htm

[David Randolph]

Nasty dive hope it can recover shortly. Ther news is here:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-20048302.htm

Hi jorgegr, nice to see you

I think that news story isn't what is behind ASTI's fall today, NHY itself is down just 1% on the day. Most solar stocks are down about 7% today, TSL is down 8%, JASO is down 6.5%, so it is an industry thing. I guess this is happening because $oil futures are down 2.5% on the day to $79.25.

[BigSully1]

Nasty dive hope it can recover shortly. Ther news is here:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-20048302.htm

Hi jorgegr, nice to see you

I think that news story isn't what is behind ASTI's fall today, NHY itself is down just 1% on the day. Most solar stocks are down about 7% today, TSL is down 8%, JASO is down 6.5%, so it is an industry thing. I guess this is happening because $oil futures are down 2.5% on the day to $79.25.

Yes solar is down. LDK down 20%, but then theres a little more story to that one.

[la-onda]

US Air Force Increases Funding of Ascent Solar's Solar Cell Program
Sunday , October 07, 2007 02:54ET

Ascent Solar Technologies, a developer of thin-film photovoltaic materials, announced that the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has contracted to increase funding of Ascent Solar's development of high-performance thin-film tandem photovoltaics (PV) based on their flexible monolithically integrated CIGS technology.

The contract modification represents up to $749,000 of additional contract value over a 27-month period.

Since 1995, AFRL has provided funding for the development of the flexible CIGS at ITN Energy Systems, Inc. and now at Ascent Solar, including the development of aspects of future tandem devices. Tandem solar cells are two solar cells in a stack, where the top cell collects the blue portion of the solar spectrum and the bottom cell collects the rest of the visible spectrum. It is believed that the type of technology pursued by this AFRL program has the potential to reach an efficiency of 20% in the future.

Ascent Solar Chief Technical Officer Dr. Joseph Armstrong said, "While our baseline CIGS that utilizes a single junction to convert the sun's energy has been performing very well, we are always striving to increase cell performance that can potentially lead to further reductions in system-level costs to the end user. Efficient conversion of the sun's energy is very critical to space and near-space applications, as higher efficiencies correlate directly to smaller, lighter-weight solar arrays, and significantly lower launch cost. Likewise, in terrestrial and building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications, such as roofing tiles and building facades that operate at elevated temperatures, future tandem devices can provide a significant advantage over existing thin film by delivering more power in less area."

[David Randolph]

US Air Force Increases Funding of Ascent Solar's Solar Cell Program
Sunday , October 07, 2007 02:54ET

This is the same press release from October 4th, strange.

ASTI went down 5.8% yesterday, in tandem with the solar energy industry, because $oil was down back below $80. No big deal in my opinion, because oil probably won't go down much more than current levels and also because the solar energy industry has other global trends working for it: the strive for energy independence and the "green movement".

Within the solar industry, ASTI is an innovator which will shine more than all others. It's technology is superior (check www.ascentsolar.com) and it is backed by NHY, a $52 B market cap company which is about to own 35% of ASTI.

When the warrants B are fully converted, ASTI will have a $272 M market cap and about $108 M in cash and equivalents, so you're buying this awesome technology and marketing capabilities (because NHY will use its distribution network to sell ASTI's products) for $164 M.

This, in my opinion, makes ASTI the most promising solar energy company in the market and I'll continue holding it for the long term.

[David Randolph]

It was nice to see ASTI closing above the $15.75 support level, after that boring but probably necessary clean up of the weak hands below $15.75. Volume increased so the lower prices attracted buyers.

Now I've noticed that Hydro may only increase its stake in ASTI starting December 13th:

«Pursuant to another option that was approved by Ascent Solar's shareholders, beginning December 13, 2007, Hydro will have the opportunity to purchase additional shares and Class B warrants so that it will hold up to 35% of each class of security.»

This is why we still didn't get the news I was expecting. But I have no problem in waiting and holding until December 13, 2007, in fact, I have no problem in holding ASTI for several years to come, because, as Hydro's management sees it ...

«With approximately 33,000 employees in nearly 40 countries, Hydro is one of the world's leading suppliers of energy and aluminum, and its building systems and aluminum divisions are among the largest in the world.

Einar Glomnes, head of Hydro's Solar Division, stated: "Ascent Solar has developed an exciting and future-oriented solar cell technology, and we believe there will be a large market for their products. Its super-thin and flexible solar cell modules go very well together with Hydro's building systems activities, and we are looking forward to a continued fruitful partnership together with Ascent."»

... I see it too.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.