As realcoolhead once said, small cap momentum + value stocks are the bread and butter of the Main's Portfolio performance, the way to really outperform the general market.
Yesterday CIMT came up as an interesting situation and turnaround story:
• Cimatron Reports Operating and Net Income in the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2006 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070312/ukm011.html?.v=93)
PR Newswire (Mon 5:05am)
I find the company appealing, not just because of the financial turnaround, but because it is a small software company with great potential:
«Cimatron, Ltd. engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and support of a family of computer-aided design/computer aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software products. Its products primarily include Cimatron E, which provides tools, applications, and process-automation solutions for the tooling industry; Cimatron IT, a family of integrated software tools for mechanical engineering and manufacturing automation; and QuickConcept, a preliminary design and review package that allows tool designers and their suppliers to hold virtual review meetings over the Internet. The Cimatron E product family includes various modules, including Designer Solution that provides users with 3D design and modeling capabilities, and associative 2D drawing and sketching functions; NC Solution, which offers milling, drilling, simulation, and verification capabilities up to 2.5 axes + 2X Positioning; Master Solution that includes various features of the Designer Solution and the NC Solution integrated into an end-to-end system; Electrode Solution, which includes various tools necessary to create and design electrodes out of a given part model; Electrode Pro Solution, which includes the tools necessary to create, design, and manufacture electrodes; Cimatron Student Package, a limited Cimatron package for students� home use; and View Only System that provides tools to view and check CAD/CAM projects. The company sells its products to various industries, including automotive, aviation and aerospace, household goods, mold and die making, machinery and tools, and telecommunications. It distributes products directly in Israel, and through a network of independent providers and distributors, as well as through subsidiaries in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, China, France, and India. Cimatron was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Givat Shmuel, Israel.»
The company recently released a new version of its flagship software product that apparently has many new useful functionalities:
• Cimatron's New Version 8 Receives High Praises From Customers and Analysts (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070305/ukm041.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Mon, Mar 5)
Here's the complete video analysis I made for CIMT:
The trading plan for CIMT is:Buy 6.66% of capital between $2.90 and $3.20. Don't put orders over the pre-market, just when the market opens.(The stock will also be bought for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), 33% of capital there)
Hi David,
CIMT was trading at low volume before yesterday, and do you think it would break 3.00 again soon?
Quote from: gix330 on March 13, 2007, 11:00:53 AM
Hi David,
CIMT was trading at low volume before yesterday, and do you think it would break 3.00 again soon?
Hi gix330, I don't care about the short term. I need you to focus on the long term and fundamental analysis. If the company just maintains what it did in the 4th quarter (but I expect growth, look how its operations in China grew 80% from a year ago levels) I think at least a double to $6 is a sure thing throughout 2007.
Volume doesn't matter, only value matters.
Stick with it, I'll update this analysis everyday with new information. Thanks :)
Hi David,
Thank you for your advice. I'll continue to hold it on long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 13, 2007, 11:06:08 AM
Quote from: gix330 on March 13, 2007, 11:00:53 AM
Hi David,
CIMT was trading at low volume before yesterday, and do you think it would break 3.00 again soon?
Hi gix330, I don't care about the short term. I need you to focus on the long term and fundamental analysis. If the company just maintains what it did in the 4th quarter (but I expect growth, look how its operations in China grew 80% from a year ago levels) I think at least a double to $6 is a sure thing throughout 2007.
Volume doesn't matter, only value matters.
Stick with it, I'll update this analysis everyday with new information. Thanks :)
David, CIMT is a very very low volume stock looking at the past months, won't this give trouble when trying to get out some day? There were days volume was 0!!! ::)
Often I heard you say you didn't like a pick because of the very low volume, what's the difference with this one, do you think average volume will increase dramatically from now on?
QuoteDavid, CIMT is a very very low volume stock looking at the past months, won't this give trouble when trying to get out some day? There were days volume was 0!!! ::)
Often I heard you say you didn't like a pick because of the very low volume, what's the difference with this one, do you think average volume will increase dramatically from now on?
Volume is low because the company didn't increase its share count for the past 10 years (which is a very positive development) and insiders hold 65% of the shares, which is another positive.
If you feel you don't have patience, please get out of the stock, as there will be days where there won't be any volume. Anyway, that doesn't change my long term view of this being a $320 M market cap, which is 14 times more than now.
I don't consider volume all that important anymore, not for long term investments.
Although CIMT had virtually no volume in the past, yesterday's volume changed that going forward. The stock basically had zero interest since it was not an impressive company financially, but since management has been restructuring and cutting costs as well as launching new products the future looks bright and with over a million shares yesterday, that's an impressive change of course in regards to volume. The same thing happened with OFI, virtually no volume and now it has decent trading volume. I believe the big funds will start adding CIMT and this will lead to higher volume days. I see at least $5 with a month since it is a low market cap company and with large funds buying into a small market cap company; this itself will propel the share price to new highs.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 13, 2007, 11:34:45 AM
QuoteDavid, CIMT is a very very low volume stock looking at the past months, won't this give trouble when trying to get out some day? There were days volume was 0!!! ::)
Often I heard you say you didn't like a pick because of the very low volume, what's the difference with this one, do you think average volume will increase dramatically from now on?
Volume is low because the company didn't increase its share count for the past 10 years (which is a very positive development) and insiders hold 65% of the shares, which is another positive.
If you feel you don't have patience, please get out of the stock, as there will be days where there won't be any volume. Anyway, that doesn't change my long term view of this being a $320 M market cap, which is 14 times more than now.
I don't consider volume all that important anymore, not for long term investments.
David,
What is your methodology in coming up with a long term view of $320M Market cap?
Thanks
QuoteDavid,
What is your methodology in coming up with a long term view of $320M Market cap?
Thanks
Did you see the video analysis?
Quote from: David Randolph on March 13, 2007, 12:18:17 PM
QuoteDavid,
What is your methodology in coming up with a long term view of $320M Market cap?
Thanks
Did you see the video analysis?
I just watched the video. I noticed over the past 4 quarters. It has been up and down 1Q was positive 2Q and 3Q were at a loss and 4Q was positive. Do you think their earnings will be more stable going forward. Over the past few years their revenues have gone up and down slightly, but have been flat. What makes you believe that this company can consistantly grow earnings 20% a year going forward?
Are the software products they sell a one time fee? or are the licensed from the company on a yearly basis?
Thanks
Thanks for the great questions eggman11 :)
QuoteDo you think their earnings will be more stable going forward?
Yes, because, look here:
«Revenues for the
fourth quarter of 2006 were $6.0 million, representing 11% growth compared to $5.4 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2005. Software product revenues in the fourth quarter of 2006
increased 23% compared to the same quarter in 2005.»
If they just maintain the $6 M a quarter revenue, they will achieve $24 M in 2007, which is 12% more than the full year 2006 number. But I expect strong quarterly revenue growth, mainly due to this:
«Cimatron's subsidiary in China achieved 80% revenue growth in 2006.»
They're making a strong bet in China, look at their worker distribution:
«As of May 31, 2006, we employed 203 full-time personnel, of whom 59 (most of whom hold advanced technical degrees) were employed in research and development, 125 were employed in marketing, sales and customer support and 19 were employed in various administrative, information systems and management positions. Of these employees, 100 were employed in Israel operations, 21 were employed by our North American subsidiary, 33 were employed by our German subsidiary, 3 were employed by our French subsidiary, 1 was employed by our Japanese subsidiary, 3 were employed by our British subsidiary,
39 were employed by our Chinese subsidiaries, and 3 were employed by our Indian subsidiary.»
QuoteWhat makes you believe that this company can consistantly grow earnings 20% a year going forward?
I said 20% average annual revenue growth and 15% net profit margin over the long term, since this is a software company. Net profit margin was already 10% in Q4 2006 and I expect this number to rise as revenues grow.
QuoteAre the software products they sell a one time fee? or are the licensed from the company on a yearly basis?
There's recurring revenue, look here:
«We derive revenues mainly from (a) sale of our products, including software and hardware components, and (b) services which include primarily maintenance fees and the provision of technical support for our software products and, to a lesser extent, fees from the provision of engineering, training, consulting and implementation services. Revenues from sales of our products are generated by a relatively large number of sales and no one customer accounts for a material portion of our revenues. We provide maintenance services pursuant to maintenance contracts, which either provide for annual maintenance fees or for the payment of maintenance fees upon the provision of upgrades to our products. Generally, maintenance contracts are for a one year term. It has been our experience that most of our customers who purchase maintenance contracts elect to receive maintenance services from us on a continuing basis. While customers in most markets do purchase maintenance services from us, our customers in the Far East (other than in Japan) generally do not purchase maintenance but instead purchase product upgrades on a case-by-case basis.»
CIMT is just a $23.3 M market cap company, without any dilution over its 11 year history as a public company. I believe risk is low and the upside potential is very high.
I'll continue studying and holding CIMT, I hope eggman11 or others have more questions :)
David, is there a reason that you didn't buy OFI back? It seems holding very well.
Also, would you like to take a look at NVTL? As I look for exceptionally strong stocks on the pullback, this one kept poping up on my screen.
By the way, I am very pleased with the new direction 3SOF is going. :D
QuoteDavid, is there a reason that you didn't buy OFI back? It seems holding very well.
Well, I love the stock, but I'm expecting people to sell it because of losses elsewhere. I have this hope that I'll be able to recommend it at the 50 days SMA support, currently at $4.78.
QuoteAlso, would you like to take a look at NVTL? As I look for exceptionally strong stocks on the pullback, this one kept poping up on my screen.
Great eye realcool, at first sight NVTL looks very attractive, I'll make a more in depth study on it today.
QuoteBy the way, I am very pleased with the new direction 3SOF is going. :D
When one has a realcoolhead to point the way, it's easy to go the right way ;)
Just one thing, if your system is to follow the Main's strategy, you shouldn't have closed those individual stock's short positions, being "nervous" isn't a sound motive to exit a position. But, well, you also ain't no super man and everybody makes his own type of mistakes (and the jury is still out on the outcome of those trades).
Thanks :)
Cool. I guess that's how you decided to buy SILC back since it sits right on the 50-SMA.
I am no superman. >:D I am even far from having a real cool head... :-\ That remains my goal and I will try to be as cool as possible though. ;D
Regarding my decision to close those individual short positions: I figured one has to invest/trade within his own emotion tolerance, otherwise life will be less pleasant... right now I conclude that individual shorts are just not cup of my tea. Nevertheless I trust your directional call on the market, so I not only doubled down on SDS that day, I even bought a double sized QID the next day. I reasoned that if the market goes down further, I will make less money than 3SOF, but I will still be happy; If the market goes up, the loss on SDS/QID most likely won't be as much as those individual positions. ::)
I guess if we really have a full-blown bear market, I will be more comfortable to get into the individual short positions.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 07:40:27 AM
Well, I love the stock, but I'm expecting people to sell it because of losses elsewhere. I have this hope that I'll be able to recommend it at the 50 days SMA support, currently at $4.78.
Just one thing, if your system is to follow the Main's strategy, you shouldn't have closed those individual stock's short positions, being "nervous" isn't a sound motive to exit a position. But, well, you also ain't no super man and everybody makes his own type of mistakes (and the jury is still out on the outcome of those trades).
Thanks :)
QuoteRegarding my decision to close those individual short positions: I figured one has to invest/trade within his own emotion tolerance, otherwise life will be less pleasant... right now I conclude that individual shorts are just not cup of my tea. Nevertheless I trust your directional call on the market, so I not only doubled down on SDS that day, I even bought a double sized QID the next day. I reasoned that if the market goes down further, I will make less money than 3SOF, but I will still be happy; If the market goes up, the loss on SDS/QID most likely won't be as much as those individual positions. ::)
I agree. But maybe you have just a bit of something in you against wishing things to go down ... you rather buy something that goes up, even if it is a bearish directional trade.
QuoteI guess if we really have a full-blown bear market, I will be more comfortable to get into the individual short positions.
Yep, good idea. Against that you just have the 1929 crash when the Dow went down 48% in a couple of months and the 1987 crash when it went down 34% in just two weeks.
The study of these two crashes was what made me go from long to short so rapidly, when the market fell so much with that kind of volume on February 27, 2007, I was afraid the market could just crash right there.
True. It is just unnatural to wish things going down ... I have to work on my mental problem on that. Another thing, when I looked at your recommendations for the day and I imagine I would feel a bit "safe" seeing you have short stops on BIDU, FMCN and IBN, weird huh? Or maybe just because I am too old. ???
Yeh, if the market crashes like that I would miss most of the "fun". But I think it is less likely these days: you have mysterious PPT in the working; you have a handson Fed; and more importantly, you have how much money US workers pump into their 401Ks every 2 weeks? There is even a new regulation proposing that: if a worker didn't choose a 401K portfolio, his/her contribution will go to a default moderate equity portfolio instead of staying in the money market fund which is the current default choice. Back in 1987, there is none of all these.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 08:11:31 AM
I agree. But maybe you have just a bit of something in you against wishing things to go down ... you rather buy something that goes up, even if it is a bearish directional trade.
Yep, good idea. Against that you just have the 1929 crash when the Dow went down 48% in a couple of months and the 1987 crash when it went down 34% in just two weeks.
The study of these two crashes was what made me go from long to short so rapidly, when the market fell so much with that kind of volume on February 27, 2007, I was afraid the market could just crash right there.
Quote from: realcoolhead on March 14, 2007, 08:29:53 AM
True. It is just unnatural to wish things going down ... I have to work on my mental problem on that. Another thing, when I looked at your recommendations for the day and I imagine I would feel a bit "safe" seeing you have short stops on BIDU, FMCN and IBN, weird huh? Or maybe just because I am too old. ???
Yeh, if the market crashes like that I would miss most of the "fun". But I think it is less likely these days: you have mysterious PPT in the working; you have a handson Fed; and more importantly, you have how much money US workers pump into their 401Ks every 2 weeks? There is even a new regulation proposing that: if a worker didn't choose a 401K portfolio, his/her contribution will go to a default moderate equity portfolio instead of staying in the money market fund which is the current default choice. Back in 1987, there is none of all these.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 14, 2007, 08:11:31 AM
I agree. But maybe you have just a bit of something in you against wishing things to go down ... you rather buy something that goes up, even if it is a bearish directional trade.
Yep, good idea. Against that you just have the 1929 crash when the Dow went down 48% in a couple of months and the 1987 crash when it went down 34% in just two weeks.
The study of these two crashes was what made me go from long to short so rapidly, when the market fell so much with that kind of volume on February 27, 2007, I was afraid the market could just crash right there.
I think a financial disaster is more likely when the majority of people share the same view as this... Dont worry everything is fine we are looked after by the FED etc... Its when you let your guard down when the worst things are possible. Just like a crash usually happens when the bulls are out parading with their guards down.
You are right. I agree sooner or later there will be a financial disaster.
What I meant to say is that the crash might not happen in a very short period of time. There will be several "attempts" to "rescue" the market, therefore there will be plenty of money to be made on the short side, even if one starts bear market operation late. I recall in late 2000 when NASDAQ was well on its way to "crash", several stocks, like SUNW or INTC, even made new all-time highs. By the time 2001 started, it was very clear we were in a bear market. Yet if you were so late that you just started shorting in 2001, you could still make a bundle.
That being said, I see a flaw in my strategy: that is what if David's short picks were so good that they could go down even if the market goes up... ::)
Quote from: nullzero on March 14, 2007, 09:44:35 AM
I think a financial disaster is more likely when the majority of people share the same view as this... Dont worry everything is fine we are looked after by the FED etc... Its when you let your guard down when the worst things are possible. Just like a crash usually happens when the bulls are out parading with their guards down.
QuoteThat being said, I see a flaw in my strategy: that is what if David's short picks were so good that they could go down even if the market goes up... ::)
Nah, at best I'll break even with my short campaign, which I guess isn't all that bad. What I don't like is to lose money, to be the same for some time doesn't bother me much.
The more I think about shorting, the more I dislike it, you know? Think of the long term estimates for a short pick ... they will always be lousy when compared to outstanding long picks.
Anyway, this is CIMT's thread. Look how volume is drying but the stock held up so well. This tells me there will be another bull run soon. But I don't care much about that, what matters most is the company keeps on track with my long term estimates, that show a 29% average annual return for the next 10 years.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
CIMT had another low volume day as it consolidates Monday's huge run up. The following news was out:
• Cimatron Releases Application for Design of Progressive Dies (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070315/ukth013.html?.v=80)
PR Newswire (Thu 9:56am)
That one day 100% plus rally is justified by the company having its best quarter ever, delivering $0.07 EPS for the quarter. From what I've been reading on the news, things can only get better going forward.
This is just a $22 M market cap without any historical dilution, remember.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
I dont see news causing the drop, so I decided to jump in here at 2.48, hopefully the 10 ema starts to act as support soon.
Good entry. CIMT looks good. Today is just short term noise.
I was looking over their quarterly SEC filing:
I noticed operating income is $336K, but net income is $557k. I don't see an explanation for difference. (No asset sale or capital gains mentioned)
If anybody can please explain, I would greatly appreciate it.
David,
Looking at the growth in revenues and net income. I am wondering why you chose CIMT over SILC for 3 stocks on fire portfolio, SILC has a proven track record of 12 straight quarters of increasing revenues and profits. CIMT had one good quarter. the rest of the year the revenues have been flat with net income fluctuating from positive to negative in previous quarters.
Thanks
Quote from: eggman11 on March 16, 2007, 02:47:56 PM
I was looking over their quarterly SEC filing:
I noticed operating income is $336K, but net income is $557k. I don't see an explanation for difference. (No asset sale or capital gains mentioned)
CIMT discloses the breakdown from op income to net income in the annual reports but not in the quarterly reports. http://www.cimatron.com/download.aspx?FolderID=22&lang=en
In 2005, the difference between net and op income was attributed to the change in valuation of the euro in relation to the US dollar:
"The increase in financial income (expenses), net, in 2005 was due primarily to the devaluation of the Euro in relation to the U.S. dollar. The increase in financial income in 2004 was due primarily to the revaluation of the Euro in relation to the U.S. dollar"
There were also tax loss carryovers at the end of 2005:
"We believe that we had tax loss carryforwards in Israel in the aggregate amount of $5,894,000 as of the end of 2005. In addition, as of December 31, 2005, we had approximately $6.8 million in net operating loss carryforwards in North America, $1.7 million in Germany, $2.2 million in France and $0.4 million in the U.K."
http://www.cimatron.com/SIP_STORAGE/FILES/0/1310.pdf
Thanks
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 16, 2007, 03:39:48 PM
Quote from: eggman11 on March 16, 2007, 02:47:56 PM
I was looking over their quarterly SEC filing:
I noticed operating income is $336K, but net income is $557k. I don't see an explanation for difference. (No asset sale or capital gains mentioned)
CIMT discloses the breakdown from op income to net income in the annual reports but not in the quarterly reports. http://www.cimatron.com/download.aspx?FolderID=22&lang=en
In 2005, the difference between net and op income was attributed to the change in valuation of the euro in relation to the US dollar:
"The increase in financial income (expenses), net, in 2005 was due primarily to the devaluation of the Euro in relation to the U.S. dollar. The increase in financial income in 2004 was due primarily to the revaluation of the Euro in relation to the U.S. dollar"
There were also tax loss carryovers at the end of 2005:
"We believe that we had tax loss carryforwards in Israel in the aggregate amount of $5,894,000 as of the end of 2005. In addition, as of December 31, 2005, we had approximately $6.8 million in net operating loss carryforwards in North America, $1.7 million in Germany, $2.2 million in France and $0.4 million in the U.K."
http://www.cimatron.com/SIP_STORAGE/FILES/0/1310.pdf
Thanks Buddjas,
The dollar is still weak against most currencies, should we should continue to see the exchange rate benefit going forward. I really hope CIMT has turned the corner. Revenues have been flat to down for many years. Their CFO is the former CFO for SILC.
Today we completed a 50% retacement of CIMT massive one day run-up. From about $1.40-$3.40. Today our low was about $2.40. w Hopefully, we will consolidate and move up form here.
QuoteDavid,
Looking at the growth in revenues and net income. I am wondering why you chose CIMT over SILC for 3 stocks on fire portfolio, SILC has a proven track record of 12 straight quarters of increasing revenues and profits. CIMT had one good quarter. the rest of the year the revenues have been flat with net income fluctuating from positive to negative in previous quarters.
Thanks
Hi eggman11, because SILC reminds me of HAUP, it sells some high tech products that may become obsolete in a few years. CIMT is a software company operating in a niche market, now expanding sales across the world. I guess I prefer CIMT's long term outlook (also CIMT is just a $19.8 M market cap and SILC is $70 M - and CIMT has more annual revenues than SILC).
My take is CIMT is SILC when SILC was a $2.53 stock :D
As for Friday's sell off, I guess I was wrong over the short term, but that means nothing. The stock was up so much over the short term that anything could happen, it could have gone up another 100% or rest a bit, going down 12% as it did on Friday. It's really unpredictable.
As for the long term fundamental picture, I keep seeing the outstanding long term growth that I saw before and I'll continue holding CIMT.
I can't help thinking that CIMT is a wonderful pick, despite the stock being down 13.8% from my buying price. The fundamental setup is so powerful, that if growth momentum continues this tiny $19 M market cap can really be a multi bagger. Nothing technical will shake me out of this position, nothing.
I worked too hard to find CIMT and I'll keep on holding it whatever happens.
David Technically this stock should start its way up from tomorrow ...
We should see some activities tomorrow ..
Quote from: Garoh on March 20, 2007, 02:45:52 AM
David Technically this stock should start its way up from tomorrow ...
We should see some activities tomorrow ..
Great short term call Garoh :)
CIMT went up 10% today, but my take is all these movements will be just a blip on the long term chart some quarters down the road. The company set the stage with Q4 2006 record revenue of $6.03 M and $0.07 EPS. Now it just needs to keep the revenue and earnings momentum.
Just with the information I have now I believe CIMT should be a $10.64 stock. Why?
Because it made $0.07 EPS for the 4th quarter (let's not care about special items for now), so we can reasonably expect at least $0.28 EPS for 2007, and the company's industry, the Technical & System Software industry, trades at a 38 times earnings multiple (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT). If you multiply a legit $0.28 EPS estimate by a 38 times multiple you get to $10.64.
I'll continue holding CIMT with strong hands.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 06:19:02 PM
Quote from: Garoh on March 20, 2007, 02:45:52 AM
David Technically this stock should start its way up from tomorrow ...
We should see some activities tomorrow ..
Great short term call Garoh :)
CIMT went up 10% today, but my take is all these movements will be just a blip on the long term chart some quarters down the road. The company set the stage with Q4 2006 record revenue of $6.03 M and $0.07 EPS. Now it just needs to keep the revenue and earnings momentum.
Just with the information I have now I believe CIMT should be a $10.64 stock. Why?
Because it made $0.07 EPS for the 4th quarter (let's not care about special items for now), so we can reasonably expect at least $0.28 EPS for 2007, and the company's industry, the Technical & System Software industry, trades at a 38 times earnings multiple (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT). If you multiply a legit $0.28 EPS estimate by a 38 times multiple you get to $10.64.
I'll continue holding CIMT with strong hands.
David,
Q4 2006 was not record revenue. In Q4 2004 they had $6.4M in revenue. Which is one of the things that concern me. Their revenues have been inconsistent (up and down compared to prior year results) over the years. You get your $.28 estimate by taking the current quarter and multiply it by 4 quarters. There is no evidence that this will happen. Taken from their 1Q06 earings report - the normal seasonal pattern 1Q revenues are generally weaker, however 1Q06 remained at the same level as 4Q05, but revenues were $5.4, which was down from $5.6M from 1Q05. I don't think estimates can be made simply by taking the current quarter and multiplying it by 4.
Eggman
Things are different now. From the earnings release PR
Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron Said, "after several years of re-organization, cost cutting and extensive product development, we believe the Company is now on the right track for sustained growth and profitability, and that Cimatron's current competitive advantages enable us to reinforce our worldwide market positioning, both in emerging and traditional markets."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070312/ukm011.html?.v=93
It is interestinng that in Q4 2004 the stock was being barely traded, whereas this time around it has reached the highest volume in one day last week. I believe this is because the company has received a higher visibility to investors. If it was undervalued in 2004 and is still undervalued, this oversight can be corrected by the investors in the (near) future.
Quote from: berloga on March 21, 2007, 08:48:49 AM
It is interestinng that in Q4 2004 the stock was being barely traded, whereas this time around it has reached the highest volume in one day last week. I believe this is because the company has received a higher visibility to investors. If it was undervalued in 2004 and is still undervalued, this oversight can be corrected by the investors in the (near) future.
Thanks buddjas1 and berloga :)
Another difference was the EPS number, which was negative in Q4 2004 ($0.02) and positive in Q4 2006, at $0.07.
I want to warn everybody that even though CIMT has, in my view, a lot of potential, it will take tons of patience to wait for the positive news to come out and push the stock higher (even though it can surely move without any news, just on existing information and prospects).
Why do I like this stock so much?
Well, in topics:
- It is just a $21.9 M market cap with $21.5 M revenues in 2006 without any historical dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann);
- It is a software company with gross margin of 84.8% and net profit margin of 9.24% in Q4 2006;
- It achieved 80% revenue growth in China from the year ago levels.
Selling/General/Admin Expenses were 60.6% of sales in Q4, but if the company is able to grow sales as I expect, I believe this % will be reduced and incremental sales will go down to the bottom line, expanding net profit margin further, maybe to the 20% area like other software companies.
The company could show us fat profits immediately, but it continues to spend a lot of money in research and development, investing for the future, as 18.1% of Q4 revenues were spent in R&D.
That is why we're getting news like the following:
• Cimatron's New Automated Drill Reduces Programming Time by up to 80% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070226/ukm017.html?.v=71)
PR Newswire (Mon, Feb 26)
• Cimatron's New Version 8 Receives High Praises From Customers and Analysts
PR Newswire (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070305/ukm041.html?.v=2) (Mon, Mar 5)
• Cimatron Releases Application for Design of Progressive Dies (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070315/ukth013.html?.v=80)
PR Newswire (Thu, Mar 15)
I'll continue holding CIMT.
is it just me or is there a little triangle being formed for another breakout setup...
I sure hope so; I was expecting a quicker 2nd wave. I'll just have to be patient, because that 2nd wave will come. I missed the 2nd MSI wave because of my lack of patience.
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 22, 2007, 04:22:39 PM
I sure hope so; I was expecting a quicker 2nd wave. I'll just have to be patient, because that 2nd wave will come. I missed the 2nd MSI wave because of my lack of patience.
1st quarter results will be out probably at May 15, that is, about a month and a half from now. It's interesting to know that CIMT's CFO is former SILC's CFO, Israel is a small country :)
I was also pleased to see that CIMT, over the recent quarters, bought 100% control or increased its position in several subsidiaries, like in Italy and South Korea.
The market will take its time to digest that big one day move and take the fast money out of the ship before another leg up. One needs patience and courage to sit tight, knowing that jumping from one stock on fire to the other is good when your hand is hot and bad when your hand is cold, in a never ending boom and bust cycle.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
The main concern I have with CIMT right now is how thinly traded it is.... if today is any indication this is the most thinly traded stock I think I have ever been in.
Quote from: tokyopua on March 23, 2007, 02:07:54 PM
The main concern I have with CIMT right now is how thinly traded it is.... if today is any indication this is the most thinly traded stock I think I have ever been in.
Small market stocks will do that to you. But all of a sudden one day volume will kick in and the stock will be up 50% before you can jump in.
Quote from: tokyopua on March 23, 2007, 02:07:54 PM
The main concern I have with CIMT right now is how thinly traded it is.... if today is any indication this is the most thinly traded stock I think I have ever been in.
Hi Tokyopua, I don't know if you remember ANGN, I bought it at $4.15, sold at $4.46 for a 7.47% profit and one of the selling reasons was the stock was so thinly traded. This was about a year ago. On Friday ANGN closed at $14 after being a $18 plus stock this January.
After I bought ANGN, the stock was dead for months and suddenly (a few months after my selling decision) it shot up another 100% in a couple of days. Then it died for some more months, almost without any volume ... then another quick shot up.
My conclusion is that some stocks behave this way, probably because the share count is small, they move with sharp impulses and then stay asleep for more or less prolonged periods.
But, the end result is that one year later ANGN is 214% higher than my selling price, and I missed it, even though fundamentals clearly pointed North. I want to learn from the experience and not repeat the mistake of selling because of low volume considerations, because share traded volume has nothing to do with fundamental value and over the long term, fundamental value always prevails.
Another issue is that one can think he can sell the stock, trade other active stocks in the meantime to achieve more return and then jump back when CIMT starts moving. It seems logical, but my experience tells me one doesn't make any money doing this, as he won't make meaningful money making short term trades on liquid stocks (the most probable outcome is to lose money) and will miss the majority (if not all) of the move of the small cap value stock. As he looks back he thinks: "I was right and could have made so much money, but I didn't. Why?"
The answer is: "because you couldn't relax and sit tight. You didn't gave the market the opportunity to properly reward you for being right".
When I say "my experience" it isn't just mine, it is also the experience of hundreds of traders I've followed throughout the years since I started writing about the stock market 8 years ago.
But now you may ask "but how do you know CIMT will behave like ANGN"?
I don't "know", but there are several fundamental signs pointing to that, mainly:
- CIMT is a $21.1 M market cap company without any historical dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann);
- The company had 2006 revenues of $21.5 M, so it is trading at 0.98 times sales. Its industry, the Technical & System Software industry trades at 2.86 times sales;
- The company had EPS of $0.07 over the 4th quarter. I believe, also given the words from the CEO over the earnings press release (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070312/ukm011.html?.v=93), that profitability will continue and maybe we'll have EPS of $0.28 in 2007. This means the forward earnings multiple is 9.43. Again, the Technical & System Software industry trades at an earnings multiple of 40 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT). If CIMT does make $0.28 EPS and it does trade at the industry average valuation (I don't see why not), the stock would then be a $11.2 stock by the end of 2007, which would mean a 286% return on my investment.
All I have to do now is to keep monitoring the fundamental developments as I continue holding CIMT.
Quote from: David Randolph on March 25, 2007, 05:04:38 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on March 23, 2007, 02:07:54 PM
The main concern I have with CIMT right now is how thinly traded it is.... if today is any indication this is the most thinly traded stock I think I have ever been in.
Hi Tokyopua, I don't know if you remember ANGN, I bought it at $4.15, sold at $4.46 for a 7.47% profit and one of the selling reasons was the stock was so thinly traded. This was about a year ago. On Friday ANGN closed at $14 after being a $18 plus stock this January.
After I bought ANGN, the stock was dead for months and suddenly (a few months after my selling decision) it shot up another 100% in a couple of days. Then it died for some more months, almost without any volume ... then another quick shot up.
My conclusion is that some stocks behave this way, probably because the share count is small, they move with sharp impulses and then stay asleep for more or less prolonged periods.
But, the end result is that one year later ANGN is 214% higher than my selling price, and I missed it, even though fundamentals clearly pointed North. I want to learn from the experience and not repeat the mistake of selling because of low volume considerations, because share traded volume has nothing to do with fundamental value and over the long term, fundamental value always prevails.
Another issue is that one can think he can sell the stock, trade other active stocks in the meantime to achieve more return and then jump back when CIMT starts moving. It seems logical, but my experience tells me one doesn't make any money doing this, as he won't make meaningful money making short term trades on liquid stocks (the most probable outcome is to lose money) and will miss the majority (if not all) of the move of the small cap value stock. As he looks back he thinks: "I was right and could have made so much money, but I didn't. Why?"
The answer is: "because you couldn't relax and sit tight. You didn't gave the market the opportunity to properly reward you for being right".
When I say "my experience" it isn't just mine, it is also the experience of hundreds of traders I've followed throughout the years since I started writing about the stock market 8 years ago.
But now you may ask "but how do you know CIMT will behave like ANGN"?
I don't "know", but there are several fundamental signs pointing to that, mainly:
- CIMT is a $21.1 M market cap company without any historical dilution (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann);
- The company had 2006 revenues of $21.5 M, so it is trading at 0.98 times sales. Its industry, the Technical & System Software industry trades at 2.86 times sales;
- The company had EPS of $0.07 over the 4th quarter. I believe, also given the words from the CEO over the earnings press release (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070312/ukm011.html?.v=93), that profitability will continue and maybe we'll have EPS of $0.28 in 2007. This means the forward earnings multiple is 9.43. Again, the Technical & System Software industry trades at an earnings multiple of 40 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT). If CIMT does make $0.28 EPS and it does trade at the industry average valuation (I don't see why not), the stock would then be a $11.2 stock by the end of 2007, which would mean a 286% return on my investment.
All I have to do now is to keep monitoring the fundamental developments as I continue holding CIMT.
Thanks for that detailed explanation and perspective. I can certainly learn to ride out any uncomfort of being in a thinly traded stock with potential like CIMT appears to have. And I havent heard you speak so highly of a stock since perhaps GOAM so that givers me further confidence. :)
I can only add that when it comes to technology, I have always been impressed with Israeli companies. Warren Buffett has been impressed recently as well (I forget which company he invested in) so we are probably in good company in that regard.
Hi David
I feel like this stock will shoot to the stars soon ;D
I think we should see nice move today , Hope so :)
Quote from: Garoh on March 26, 2007, 08:32:56 AM
Hi David
I feel like this stock will shoot to the stars soon ;D
I think we should see nice move today , Hope so :)
Still not today Garoh, but we have time.
OK, I've been holding this stock for about 10 days and only now I was able to find what the hell is CAD/CAM:
Computer-Aided Design/Computer-Aided Manufacturing ::)
Isn't this an interesting software company? I'll keep studying and holding it for the long term, technical & fundamental analysis points North.
CIMT moving on news!
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070327/uktu006.html?.v=101
Applaud, thanks for the news.
Quote from: Garoh on March 26, 2007, 08:32:56 AM
Hi David
I feel like this stock will shoot to the stars soon ;D
I think we should see nice move today , Hope so :)
david as I expected to the Stars ;D
We really need a close above $3.05 (previously closing high) to take us to a new higher trading range.
Nice chart my fellow traders. Perfect T3ML - daily & weekly scale. ;)
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 22, 2007, 04:22:39 PM
I sure hope so; I was expecting a quicker 2nd wave. I'll just have to be patient, because that 2nd wave will come. I missed the 2nd MSI wave because of my lack of patience.
is that the second wave you're looking for? ;)
Quote from: kslifka on March 23, 2007, 03:00:00 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on March 23, 2007, 02:07:54 PM
The main concern I have with CIMT right now is how thinly traded it is.... if today is any indication this is the most thinly traded stock I think I have ever been in.
Small market stocks will do that to you. But all of a sudden one day volume will kick in and the stock will be up 50% before you can jump in.
;D
Quote from: David Randolph on March 22, 2007, 05:41:25 AM
I want to warn everybody that even though CIMT has, in my view, a lot of potential, it will take tons of patience to wait for the positive news to come out and push the stock higher (even though it can surely move without any news, just on existing information and prospects).
Well, glad we were patient for these many long days, it has been tough, but after countless hours of waiting, we finally got that good news! ;)
Haha, of course Im just joking, just cool that the news came so fast 8)
Clearly, more to come...
I realize that long term this is a great investment and happy to be one of those people that exhibited patience. 8)
Looking at the techincal side though, I see that RSI is above 70 and when this had the 100% run up a little while ago, was way over 70, somewhere around 90. Now, with that said, my gut tells me a sell off tomorrow that sparks to get the RSI in acceptable territory. Any thoughts on this or just ignore this?
Quote from: lancefur on March 27, 2007, 03:46:13 PM
I realize that long term this is a great investment and happy to be one of those people that exhibited patience. 8)
Looking at the techincal side though, I see that RSI is above 70 and when this had the 100% run up a little while ago, was way over 70, somewhere around 90. Now, with that said, my gut tells me a sell off tomorrow that sparks to get the RSI in acceptable territory. Any thoughts on this or just ignore this?
Just my thoughts here, could still sell off, but consider that:
-The last run up was over 100%, today is just 26%. Any selloff would likely be of a lesser degree, and considering how big the last jump was, there was not too much of a selloff in relative terms
-RSI can stay elevated for long periods of time
-The candlestick pattern for today is Rising Three Methods, IME a highly reliable indicator of future upside
-Today's advance came on a day where the overall market was down, so any bounce or upside to the overall market in this week might add support to the stock
Personally I feel that today just makes it easier for me to be patient with this stock for the longer term growth David has predicted.
If it were a bit more liquid it might make more sense to try to sell and buy back on a pullback, but you could also lose some on the spread due to it being thinly traded, especially if it just consolodates around the current level, or worse yet if you have to buy it back higher lol.
Can be wrong though...
Quote from: tokyopua on March 27, 2007, 04:04:17 PM
Quote from: lancefur on March 27, 2007, 03:46:13 PM
I realize that long term this is a great investment and happy to be one of those people that exhibited patience. 8)
Looking at the techincal side though, I see that RSI is above 70 and when this had the 100% run up a little while ago, was way over 70, somewhere around 90. Now, with that said, my gut tells me a sell off tomorrow that sparks to get the RSI in acceptable territory. Any thoughts on this or just ignore this?
Just my thoughts here, could still sell off, but consider that:
-The last run up was over 100%, today is just 26%. Any selloff would likely be of a lesser degree, and considering how big the last jump was, there was not too much of a selloff in relative terms
-RSI can stay elevated for long periods of time
-The candlestick pattern for today is Rising Three Methods, IME a highly reliable indicator of future upside
-Today's advance came on a day where the overall market was down, so any bounce or upside to the overall market in this week might add support to the stock
Personally I feel that today just makes it easier for me to be patient with this stock for the longer term growth David has predicted.
If it were a bit more liquid it might make more sense to try to sell and buy back on a pullback, but you could also lose some on the spread due to it being thinly traded, especially if it just consolodates around the current level, or worse yet if you have to buy it back higher lol.
Can be wrong though...
These were my thoughts as well, I just wanted confirmation to my thought process. Thanks!
Quote from: kpunarc on March 27, 2007, 01:18:21 PM
is that the second wave you're looking for? ;)
Today was surely nice but not as strong as I would have liked. CIMT will probably flat line at around $3 until more news surfaces.
More on a general observation: when a stock suddenly goes up a lot, I used to try to "outsmart" David and sell in the hope of buying it back at a little bit cheaper. Many times it worked but in a few occassions I had to buy it back at a higher price. The thing is, it is the situation that you have to buy it higher usually costs you a lot more than what you can scrape from those small gains when you could buy back cheaper!
Think about it statistically, if you do it often, you might succeed maybe 80% of the time, but the 20% of the time you end up chasing the stock can cost you. Another scenario is that whenever David made a purchase, 80% of time you could wait and buy the stock at a lower price 8) (you could look at the history and do the statisitics), yet every now and then a stock just does not pull back after David's buy :'( , like GIGM, NVTL right now and a few other happened before, MSI's first purchase for example. And those who don't pull back usually "cost" you a lot.
So in the long run, it will probably all balance out, and sitting tight and letting good stocks run without trying to squeeze out little gain here and there might even be better. Plus you don't have to spend a lot of time watching the market anymore. >:D
Quote from: lancefur on March 27, 2007, 03:46:13 PM
Looking at the techincal side though, I see that RSI is above 70 and when this had the 100% run up a little while ago, was way over 70, somewhere around 90. Now, with that said, my gut tells me a sell off tomorrow that sparks to get the RSI in acceptable territory. Any thoughts on this or just ignore this?
Terliso,
I love your 3 magic line strategy: what indicator(s) tell you that it's time to sell a stock?
Thanks,
Dory99
Just dawned on me that today is a G-Spot breakout with the close above 3.04. Niiiice! ;)
This one is going higher from here!
The news on CIMT was:
• Cimatron Opens Two New Offices in China to Meet Growing Demand (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070327/uktu006.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Tue 10:23am)
In 2005 the company already had 34% of its product revenue and 13.2% of its services revenue coming from the Far East:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=34906;image)
With 80% revenue growth in China in 2006 probably the South East Asia is becoming the most important revenue stream of CIMT. Hence the opening of two new offices in that region of the globe.
The news in itself isn't all that relevant, but it is another indication that the Q4 2006 results wasn't a one off and the company is now a growing and profitable business. Again, in the Chairman's words:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron Said, "after several years of re-organization, cost cutting and extensive product development, we believe the Company is now on the right track for sustained growth and profitability, and that Cimatron's current competitive advantages enable us to reinforce our worldwide market positioning, both in emerging and traditional markets."»
Now we just have to wait and see how much revenue growth and how much profitability. And, of course, keep holding the stock without the slightest regard for short term volatility :)
Most people can't stand the idea of letting the profits run, because they're always afraid the market will take those profits they need so badly, so they cut profits short, as it happened with people selling CIMT yesterday.
My take is it will take time, perhaps weeks, but higher prices will come as fundamentals are improving.
There wasn't any new technical or fundamental information for CIMT today. I'll keep holding the stock as I wait for the news of improving fundamentals.
CIMT is getting a little weak. I am not going to let CIMT pull a MSI-type retrace on me. Long term holding is great in theory when you are already in positive territory, but I think one needs to manage your money as well by not letting nice gains turn into huge losses. Once the holding turns negative, there's no guarentee you'll ever recoup it. A 2.92 or less top bid will be my out. I hope CIMT does not get there, though.
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 30, 2007, 01:37:05 PM
CIMT is getting a little weak. I am not going to let CIMT pull a MSI-type retrace on me. Long term holding is great in theory when you are already in positive territory, but I think one needs to manage your money as well by not letting nice gains turn into huge losses. Once the holding turns negative, there's no guarentee you'll ever recoup it. A 2.92 or less top bid will be my out. I hope CIMT does not get there, though.
That's also my hope buddjas1, as I would feel sad to see you leave CIMT.
To know more about CIMT's flagship product, Cimatron E, you can read this product review:
Software: Cimatron E 7.0 (http://www.mcadonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=197&Itemid=73)
I highlight the following parts:
«It's been nearly two years since I last looked at Cimatron's offering and it's clear that there's been a great deal of work done on improving the core functionality within the system (in terms of modelling and editing power), but perhaps more importantly, there's been a lot of improvement on the process-specific areas. If you're in the mould and die design industry, then the system offers a feature rich mix of functionality. The intelligent process-based tools remove a great deal of the repetitive work undertaken in every project, but alongside this, the core modelling tools allow you to dive in and create the complex geometry that offers the really challenging part of many tooling projects, ensuring that your design team is using its skills where most appropriate.»
And the price:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35005;image)
£4,500 is about $8,700 for each pack of software :o It had to be, because it is so specific.
When I think of this very high price for a product that, after being developed, probably costs about $1 to make an additional copy, I wonder why the company isn't more profitable. Well, indeed, gross margin in Q4 2006 was 85%. But SG&A (Selling, General and Administrative) costs were 60.6% of sales, that's why it isn't more profitable. The good news is SG&A costs in Q4 2005 were 77.5% of sales, so there was a meaningful improvement towards profitability, in fact, SG&A costs were lower now ($3.65 M) than a year ago ($4.2 M), even though sales were 11.1% higher.
Also, R&D costs were $1.09 M in Q4 2006, stable from previous levels. My take is this company will be profitable when it wants to be profitable. It just needs to cut some costs, and it is doing so. Management said the following:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron Said, "after several years of re-organization, cost cutting and extensive product development, we believe
the Company is now on the right track for sustained growth and profitability, and that Cimatron's current competitive advantages enable us to reinforce our worldwide market positioning, both in emerging and traditional markets."»
And they didn't said it previously. Throughout 2005 and 2006 there wasn't one single press release out from this company. Not even one, just the necessary SEC filings. In 2007, just three months into the year, we already had 8 positive press releases. Management feels it's time to show us the money, the numbers, that will make the stock fly.
It is our job to buy and hold CIMT.
Some grumpy guy's thoughts:
http://software.seekingalpha.com/article/31198
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 31, 2007, 03:03:24 PM
Some grumpy guy's thoughts:
http://software.seekingalpha.com/article/31198
He may be grumpy, but he does seem to be basically positive on CIMT :)
---------------------
Cimatron Technologies (CIMT) has gained 132% since the beginning of the month. Its current price, $3.20, represents a new high since the low it reached in 2002. The stock had actually been holding steady at $1.40 recently, and then it suddenly soared at the end of the first week of March. Cimatron, which specializes in industrial instrumentation, is one of the oldest Israeli companies on the stock exchanges in New York. The company develops and produces software for the manufacturing of devices used in the metalwork industries, from dies to numerical control software for machines.
Since I last wrote about this company, the stock has continued to rise strongly. What caused this surge? The reason apparently does not lie in the company's fantastic performance or anything like that. 2006 and its final quarter were "responsible" for the stock's initial climb at the end of the first week of the month, but after the initial excitement following the company's move from losses to an operating profit (it is still losing), it fell again to $2.60 from $3 at the beginning of the week. It then suddenly soared 27% to $3.30 following the announcement of the opening of two new offices in China.
At the beginning of the month Cimatron announced that it would be launching the new version of its CimatronE software for tool manufacturing, Version 8. From what I have read, this really is an advanced version which has won the company much praise on Main Street. Todd DeMint, lead designer at toolmaker Eimo Americas in Michigan said that "Version 8 gives us new tools in design and manufacturing," while industry analyst Alan Christman of CIMdata said that the release of the new software would change Cimatron's situation, for the better obviously.
The truth is that anyone who read the company's fourth quarter and 2006 reports would have seen that China is indeed the company's center of activity, and from what the company president said, it is obvious that the entry into China in order to grow together with the market there was a strategic decision. China, as it happens, has become the world leader in industrial tool design and production, and Cimatron's idea to operate there is perfectly logical.
Cimatron is a fairly small company by any criteria, and it has to exploit its technological edge (if indeed it has one) and rely on it in order to continue growing. The company's performance and the behavior of its stock since 1996 have not been exceptional to date, but perhaps everything is now beginning to happen. It's definitely worth checking out.
Thanks for the article buddjas1 and Tokyopua :)
There are four basic things I like on CIMT:
1) The market cap is very low, at $24.3 M;
2) There's no dilution at all over the years (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann);
3) It is a software company (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CIMT). This means it has the potential to show extremely fat gross and net profit margins, if sales rise just a bit more;
4) It is benefiting from China's strong economic growth (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070327/uktu006.html?.v=101), since sales to that country were up 80% in 2006 alone.
Also, the company spent a lot of money in R&D over the past 6 years, it doesn't need to spend so much going forward (in fact, R&D costs are going down already). The company started issuing press releases in January 2007 (none previously), it is looking to reap the reward of 6 years of efforts. Do you think the good news will stop here? No way.
My take is CIMT has the potential to end 2007 above $10 a share and I'll keep holding for as long as I believe the way ahead is up.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 06:07:55 PM
My take is CIMT has the potential to end 2007 above $10 a share and I'll keep holding for as long as I believe the way ahead is up.
So numerically am I right in stating that currently this would be the pick in the Main portfolio that has the greatest potential currently for this year in your opinion?
Quote from: tokyopua on April 02, 2007, 06:42:13 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 06:07:55 PM
My take is CIMT has the potential to end 2007 above $10 a share and I'll keep holding for as long as I believe the way ahead is up.
So numerically am I right in stating that currently this would be the pick in the Main portfolio that has the greatest potential currently for this year in your opinion?
Absolutely, CIMT is the stock with the greatest short term potential. It is also the smallest company in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), hence its ability to move a lot and fast. But, of course, risk is also higher because so far we have just one strong quarter, the jury is still out to say if this is a new positive fundamental trend or just a blip (I believe there's strong indication in favor of the first hypothesis).
Hi David
this stock showed some strenght yestreday . technically this stock should make another new high very soon ;D
I feel like there will be another 100% jump soon :o
They have a cool software
Hey Garoh, are you with the company CIMT? Every time you say you feel its gonna pop up you are correct! ;D I LIKE IT! Keep up the good work!!
DAVID, I like the new layout on your site, keep up the excellent work!
Good Luck everyone!
Mbaugh
No kidding, Garoh. Now just say something nice about MSI!!!
Quote from: mbaugh on April 03, 2007, 10:02:34 AM
Hey Garoh, are you with the company CIMT? Every time you say you feel its gonna pop up you are correct! ;D I LIKE IT! Keep up the good work!!
DAVID, I like the new layout on your site, keep up the excellent work!
Good Luck everyone!
Mbaugh
Hi mbaugh
maybe ask David ;D
just hold cimt tight .... are we ready for the second wave soon ?? ::)
wish you best of luck
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 03, 2007, 10:27:12 AM
No kidding, Garoh. Now just say something nice about MSI!!!
heheheh buddjas1 unfortuntely I don't like their bussiness :-\
I think they had enough ! will try to say something later ;D
hehe, Garoh's hand is red hot(http://mdteague.com/JumpnFLame)
Thanks for the congrats on the new layout mbaugh, I'll make sure that Ramsburg reads this, he'll be happy :)
Did I write that CIMT was the most powerful holding of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php)? I guess so ... well, now it is the biggest gainer of the Main, and also a great holding of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire_3sof.php), helping to push it up 13.24% today :o
The chart below is awesome, especially when considering volume, this micro cap has wings ... well, I don't want to be overly enthusiastic here, after all, today was just business as usual.
As of today's close CIMT is a $32.7 M market cap software company. It is trading at 1.52 times revenues. The Technical & System Software industry trades at 2.66 times sales. For CIMT to trade at the industry's average, it would have to be a $7.16 stock.
But my interest in this pick isn't a correction of the undervaluation to the industry average valuation, but the strong growth and net profit margin expansion possibility. I see leverage in both ways here: the stock is coming up from a very depressed valuation level, and it can go to the other side of the spectrum, to be valued like a strong growth + high margin software company.
There's nothing else to do here but to sit tight and let the profits run.
the 3 stocks on fire portfolio is getting hot.
David, Keep up the good work.
I am so glad I found this site!!! CIMT is on fire!!!
Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 07:19:15 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 02, 2007, 06:42:13 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on April 02, 2007, 06:07:55 PM
My take is CIMT has the potential to end 2007 above $10 a share and I'll keep holding for as long as I believe the way ahead is up.
So numerically am I right in stating that currently this would be the pick in the Main portfolio that has the greatest potential currently for this year in your opinion?
Absolutely, CIMT is the stock with the greatest short term potential. It is also the smallest company in the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), hence its ability to move a lot and fast. But, of course, risk is also higher because so far we have just one strong quarter, the jury is still out to say if this is a new positive fundamental trend or just a blip (I believe there's strong indication in favor of the first hypothesis).
Heh, that "short term potential" proved itself in less than 24 hours, lol! Nice day for CIMT, but like you said, best not to get overly excited, so as not to get overly depressed when stocks drop.
I asked the question above because this stock reminded me of GOAM where it was clear not too many members had been on board with it initially, but at the time it appeared to have the greatest potential and indeed wound up making a great profit. I was hoping that members would see your answer and get on board before the next huge leg up, but there should still be some pullback from here that would allow for an attractive buy point, especially when the longer term is taken into account.
Today we had the second Rising Three Methods candlestick formation in about as many weeks, and CIMT also finished near HOD with no bearish shadows left on the big up move like on the last two. Very nice, great pick David ;D I honestly would not have had the guts to buy this thing up so much after it doubled in a day as you did, that is something I still have to learn (like how you saw VII go up massively and still said to buy at around $7 and it went to $10), etc.
Quote from: Terliso on March 27, 2007, 12:34:56 PM
Nice chart my fellow traders. Perfect T3ML - daily & weekly scale. ;)
Ain't that a magic?
Quote from: Dory99 on March 27, 2007, 10:26:24 PM
Terliso,
I love your 3 magic line strategy: what indicator(s) tell you that it's time to sell a stock?
Thanks,
Dory99
The selling part is hard to predict. All I know is, T3ML goes up fast and going down fast as well.
Example: STEC
Thanks,Terliso.
No "rule-of-thumb" on sale, e.g. 25% from high?
QuoteVery nice, great pick David ;D I honestly would not have had the guts to buy this thing up so much after it doubled in a day as you did, that is something I still have to learn (like how you saw VII go up massively and still said to buy at around $7 and it went to $10), etc.
Thanks Tokyo :) What you need to learn to be able to do that is to study the change in fundamentals. You see, a stock price might double, but what if at the same time fundamentals improved 3 fold? The stock is actually cheaper now than before ;)
I put some variables on my new model for CIMT, and the model told me that with what we can extrapolate for the future, CIMT should only be sold at $17.75:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35202;image)
I don't think I'm being too aggressive on my estimates, let's see them in detail (the white parts are the things we can manipulate on the model, the yellow parts are facts):
- Dilution factor of 1, which means there won't be any dilution at all. Why? Well, there wasn't any over the past 10 years, as you can see on this 10 year summary (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann), certainly there won't be any now that the company has turned profitable;
- Revenue CAGR of 1.2, which means a compound annual revenue growth of 20%. This is conservative, because in 2006, revenues in China grew 80% and the company is making a strong bet in that country from what we can read over the recent news;
- Net profit margin of 15% in 2009. The company already had 9.24% net profit margin in Q4 2006, and it is a software company, always keep that in mind. And we've seen previously as SG&A and R&D costs are actually down over the last few years, so the company is ready for a meaningful margin expansion. In my opinion, a good chunk of incremental sales will go directly to the bottom line;
- EPS multiple estimate of 39. This is the only point where perhaps I'm being somewhat optimistic (to compensate for being conservative on other points), but 39 is the Technical & System Software industry average EPS multiple (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT), why shouldn't CIMT trade at the average valuation?
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Good work david :)
for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon ;D
I could be wrong ::)
Nice stock
Quote from: Garoh on April 05, 2007, 11:46:47 AM
Good work david :)
for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon ;D
I could be wrong ::)
Nice stock
And are you selling now to try to buy it back lower Garoh? Thanks :)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 05, 2007, 12:06:21 PM
Quote from: Garoh on April 05, 2007, 11:46:47 AM
Good work david :)
for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon ;D
I could be wrong ::)
Nice stock
And are you selling now to try to buy it back lower Garoh? Thanks :)
Hi David
Good question ;)
Off cource I'm not :)
I have the original shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper ;D
and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....
You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks :)
Dave,
unrelated topic to this link, but might get to you fast.
What do you think of IPII? The hurricane season is predicted "active" this year. This company provides building materials.
Thanks.
Quote from: sfhappyfish88 on April 05, 2007, 01:36:10 PM
Dave,
unrelated topic to this link, but might get to you fast.
What do you think of IPII? The hurricane season is predicted "active" this year. This company provides building materials.
Thanks.
I don't know IPII, but the hurricane season being "active" or "inactive" shouldn't drive your investment decisions, there are many other factors intrinsic to that specific company that probably play a more important role.
First thing to know is, what is the market cap? Just $23 M, this is interesting. Revenue in 2006? $75 M. EPS in 2006? $1.14, and the stock is trading at $9.12, so the earnings multiple is just 8. Net profit margin? 2.67%, quite low, but it might expand. Share count? About 4% average annual dilution over the last few years.
Yes, IPII looks interesting, very small cap moving up ... I'll make a more in depth look on it early next week, thanks for the tip :)
QuoteHi David
Good question ;)
Off cource I'm not :)
I have the original shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper ;D
and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....
You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks :)
Thanks Garoh :)
You should consider putting that money you're using for day trading into another sound long term pick, day trading is stressful and takes away too much time that you probably need for your professional life or your family. And my take is you'll probably end up making more money ;)
My latest update on CIMT says it all in terms of long term estimates and the outcome of those estimates:
- No dilution expected;
- 20% revenue CAGR;
- Net profit margin of 15%;
- Trade at the industry average EPS multiple of 39
Now we just have to monitor incoming information and adjust estimates accordingly. I'll keep holding CIMT.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 07, 2007, 05:42:11 AM
QuoteHi David
Good question ;)
Off cource I'm not :)
I have the original shares that I bought at 2.84 one day after you bought this stock , How ever I have another quantity that i'm using for daytrading I sell it when I think I can get it cheaper ;D
and that means that I have a great confidence in this stock .....
You'er really helping me build good profits with your nice picks :)
Thanks Garoh :)
You should consider putting that money you're using for day trading into another sound long term pick, day trading is stressful and takes away too much time that you probably need for your professional life or your family. And my take is you'll probably end up making more money ;)
My latest update on CIMT says it all in terms of long term estimates and the outcome of those estimates:
- No dilution expected;
- 20% revenue CAGR;
- Net profit margin of 15%;
- Trade at the industry average EPS multiple of 39
Now we just have to monitor incoming information and adjust estimates accordingly. I'll keep holding CIMT.
Thanks David for the true and nice works :)
You'er right ,
In 1996 I bought Harely Davidson (HDI Old ticker ,New ticker is HOG)
I invested in this stock $4100 only I didn't had the ability to daytrade and I thought this company had big potenial to grow and I was right ... I still have this stock in my portfolio :)
Do you how much are my stocks worth in 10 years ????
$79,000 Now :)
I never thought of selling this stock before but now I really think seriously to sell it because I think there would be better stock with great potenial in the market .....
And as said If I used that money for daytrading I wouldn't had this great profits which made $4100 into $79,000 in just 11 year :)
I Love my family and I always think that taking care of your family is much better than do anything :)
I'm really happy I found this place with nice people ;)
Wow, Garoh, you've got about >30% gain annualized on Harley! You've been patient.
Quote from: berloga on April 09, 2007, 12:10:26 PM
Wow, Garoh, you've got about >30% gain annualized on Harley! You've been patient.
yes , because I didn't need that money ;D
and as david saying I had red hot hands ;D
Congratulations on that great Harley investment Garoh. 31% CAGR over 10 years is terrific :)
I'm glad you didn't sell CIMT when you felt $3.5 was around the corner. As I've been saying, those short term fluctuations seem predictable, but they're not.
As I look to CIMT's valuation model I see even more upside. Why? Well, I'm considering just 20% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. But the company can beat that, 20% isn't all that much, considering the market the company is involved.
Anyway, given my current estimates which I believe are reasonable, CIMT shouldn't be sold below $17.75. Just buy and hold CIMT.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 09, 2007, 06:09:50 PM
Congratulations on that great Harley investment Garoh. 31% CAGR over 10 years is terrific :)
I'm glad you didn't sell CIMT when you felt $3.5 was around the corner. As I've been saying, those short term fluctuations seem predictable, but they're not.
As I look to CIMT's valuation model I see even more upside. Why? Well, I'm considering just 20% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. But the company can beat that, 20% isn't all that much, considering the market the company is involved.
Anyway, given my current estimates which I believe are reasonable, CIMT shouldn't be sold below $17.75. Just buy and hold CIMT.
Thanks David :)
I'm getting ready to sell my lover harley davidson Bad To the Bone ;D
Yes David you'er right , I sold the shares I used to daytrade at $4 just to get it back cheaper but yesterday when the market opened I saw some good signs on CIMT some people want to buy as soon as possible and that forced me to jump back in the stock and buy again at $4.10 ;D
I'm happy I got in at the right time :)
David I Bought this stock yestrday it worth it to take a close look to this nice company
EGR I it has good potenial to grow more ...
It could be good for the main portfolio ;)
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
QuoteThanks David :)
I'm getting ready to sell my lover harley davidson Bad To the Bone ;D
Why are you getting ready to sell it? Do you think it isn't attractive anymore?
Quote
Yes David you'er right , I sold the shares I used to daytrade at $4 just to get it back cheaper but yesterday when the market opened I saw some good signs on CIMT some people want to buy as soon as possible and that forced me to jump back in the stock and buy again at $4.10 ;D
I told you, you probably won't beat a buy and hold strategy on a rapidly rising stock as CIMT, not even when your hand is very hot.
Quote
I'm happy I got in at the right time :)
I'm happy too that you're holding CIMT.
QuoteDavid I Bought this stock yestrday it worth it to take a close look to this nice company EGR I it has good potenial to grow more ...
It could be good for the main portfolio ;)
EGR? Uh la la, great quarter ! I could have bought it about 40% below, had I seen it. Sill looks very attractive. I'll try to perform a video analysis on it today.
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
[/quote]
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
what about that same candle on the 16th after the first breakout?
QuoteTokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Is your book Candlestick Charting Explained, by Gregory L. Morris?
Great book, but not particularly useful for long term investing.
My take is you're right about the dark cloud cover pattern, it didn't occur in CIMT yesterday.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 11, 2007, 09:26:19 AM
QuoteTokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Is your book Candlestick Charting Explained, by Gregory L. Morris?
Great book, but not particularly useful for long term investing.
My take is you're right about the dark cloud cover pattern, it didn't occur in CIMT yesterday.
Yes David, it is the book. I also recently bought "Getting Started in Technical analysis" by Jack Schwager at your suggestion (and a very good one.) My brother also sent me " Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy, text and study guide/workbook that I really like so far.
QuoteYes David, it is the book. I also recently bought "Getting Started in Technical analysis" by Jack Schwager at your suggestion (and a very good one.) My brother also sent me " Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy, text and study guide/workbook that I really like so far.
Hmm, that wasn't my suggestion BigSully1, I never read that book. The big book I have (and I mean big, it has 721 pages ;D) on technical analysis is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends", by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, between others.
I must say that my faith in technical analysis isn't as enthusiastic as it once was, but I still feel it is much better to know it than to ignore it.
Good study :)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 11, 2007, 09:42:09 AM
QuoteYes David, it is the book. I also recently bought "Getting Started in Technical analysis" by Jack Schwager at your suggestion (and a very good one.) My brother also sent me " Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy, text and study guide/workbook that I really like so far.
Hmm, that wasn't my suggestion BigSully1, I never read that book. The big book I have (and I mean big, it has 721 pages ;D) on technical analysis is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends", by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee, between others.
I must say that my faith in technical analysis isn't as enthusiastic as it once was, but I still feel it is much better to know it than to ignore it.
Good study :)
Sorry bout that David, it was Ramsburg that suggested it. Here is the thread if anyone interested in book suggestions;
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1267.0
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 11, 2007, 09:12:35 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
[/quote]
Given the volume and the fact it didnt close within 50% of the real body it probably doesnt have much bearish signifigance. However, with this pattern (as with many candlestick patterns), Steve Nison suggests that it can be open to interpretation:
"The first day of this two-candle pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens above the prior session's high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). However, by the end of the second day's session, the market closes deeply within the prior day's white body. The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetration of the black session's close into the white real body. If the black candle does not close below the halfway point of the white candlestick, it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following the dark cloud-cover. In some circumstances I will also view it as a dark-cloud cover even if the open is over the prior session's close instead of the prior session's high."
I consider Nison to be the authority on candlesticks, so I go by his interpretations. He has two scenarios where he will still call it dark cloud cover where others might not, but in my experience this flexibility has saved me some money by looking at the overall picture.
So this is a dark cloud cover per his definition (you could his two variations Weak Dark Cloud Cover and Didn't-Open-Above-Prior-High Dark Cloud Cover, lol), but per his guidelines not one that you would necessarily act on or expect to follow through bearishly.
Also, as David added, the low volume reduces the signifigance further.
Quote from: tokyopua on April 11, 2007, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 11, 2007, 09:12:35 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Given the volume and the fact it didnt close within 50% of the real body it probably doesnt have much bearish signifigance. However, with this pattern (as with many candlestick patterns), Steve Nison suggests that it can be open to interpretation:
"The first day of this two-candle pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens above the prior session's high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). However, by the end of the second day's session, the market closes deeply within the prior day's white body. The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetration of the black session's close into the white real body. If the black candle does not close below the halfway point of the white candlestick, it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following the dark cloud-cover. In some circumstances I will also view it as a dark-cloud cover even if the open is over the prior session's close instead of the prior session's high."
I consider Nison to be the authority on candlesticks, so I go by his interpretations. He has two scenarios where he will still call it dark cloud cover where others might not, but in my experience this flexibility has saved me some money by looking at the overall picture.
So this is a dark cloud cover per his definition (you could his two variations Weak Dark Cloud Cover and Didn't-Open-Above-Prior-High Dark Cloud Cover, lol), but per his guidelines not one that you would necessarily act on or expect to follow through bearishly.
Also, as David added, the low volume reduces the signifigance further.
[/quote]
Thanks Tokyo. Nison uses some subjectivity in his interpretation. Just a yellow flag? By Morris' interpretation, even if it would have been a dark cloud cover, it would still require further confirmation.
As I did for SILC, I'm interested in writing how Q1 2007 needs to look like to confirm the estimates I got for CIMT:
1) The share count in Q1 2006 was 7,835,000, and the number has been the same for many years. I don't expect it to change going forward, so my dilution factor is 1;
2) I have a revenue CAGR estimate of 1.2. Revenues in Q1 2006 were $5,374,000. For Q1 2007 they need to come in at least 20% higher, that is, $6,448,800;
3) I expect the net profit margin to rise from the current level of 9.24% to 15% over the next 3 years. Something between 8 and 12% would be fine for this quarter (since in Q4 2006 there was a currency benefit that might not happen again in this quarter, an interesting story for the next update);
4) I estimate that over the medium term CIMT will trade at the Technical & System Software industry average of 39 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=cimt). Currently CIMT is trading at a trailing earnings multiple of 62, so I don't think there will be a problem with trading at 39 times earnings, just give us the earnings growth we expect.
So, we know what we need, let's wait for the company's results.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
CIMT continues its worldwide expansion, now going for Australia & New Zealand:
• Cimatron Appoints Headland Machinery as Distributor for Australia and New Zealand (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070412/ukth002.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Thu 6:17am)
CIMT released the following news yesterday:
• Cimatron Appoints Headland Machinery as Distributor for Australia and New Zealand (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070412/ukth002.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Thu 6:17am)
It is another step in the company's worldwide expansion plans but didn't have a material impact on the share price.
CIMT is fighting with SILC for the #1 place in the Main Portfolio as the most attractive stock:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35546;image)
The estimated share price CAGR is a spectacular 84.6% and the optimal selling price today is just $17.77. The stock closed at $4.41 yesterday.
And I believe there's upside potential to these estimates, especially the revenue CAGR estimate, since I'm expecting just 20% revenue compound annual growth rate going forward and the company grew 80% in China in 2006, its strongest bet for 2007 as we can perceive from the recent press releases.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
Q1 2006 results came out only on May 18, so probably we're still about one month away from knowing Q1 2007 numbers. I already wrote what I need on this quarter to confirm my long term estimates:
Quote
1) The share count in Q4 2006 was 7,835,000, and the number has been the same for many years. I don't expect it to change going forward, so my dilution factor is 1;
2) I have a revenue CAGR estimate of 1.2. Revenues in Q1 2006 were $5,374,000. For Q1 2007 they need to come in at least 20% higher, that is, $6,448,800;
3) I expect the net profit margin to rise from the current level of 9.24% to 15% over the next 3 years. Something between 8 and 12% would be fine for this quarter (since in Q4 2006 there was a currency benefit that might not happen again in this quarter, an interesting story for the next update);
4) I estimate that over the medium term CIMT will trade at the Technical & System Software industry average of 39. Currently CIMT is trading at a trailing earnings multiple of 62, so I don't think there will be a problem with trading at 39 times earnings, just give us the earnings growth we expect.
I have no reason to change anything to the valuation model today, except the estimated EPS multiple, because the Technical & System Software industry average earnings multiple rose from 39 to 40.55 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35593;image)
The share price CAGR rose just 0.1 percentage points to 84.7% (because the initial share price rose 3.83%) but the optimal selling price increased from $17.77 to $18.48 now.
Over the next update for CIMT I want to check out how important that currency benefit was for CIMT's Q4 2006 results and if that will be repeated in Q1 2007 (I think so, because the USD has been weak against the Euro and major Asian currencies, so when results are translated into USD, they come in higher. But I'll check this out in more detail).
No doubt I'll keep on holding CIMT.
CIMT's 9.6% fall yesterday didn't damage the technical picture, as the trend remains clearly bullish.
From what I've seen in the balance sheet, I believe that the difference between operating income of $366 K and net income of $557 M in Q4 2006 is due to interest income, not a currency benefit. The company has the following assets that probably gave it an interest income of $211 K:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35689;image)
I'm not changing any key variables of the model (except the EPS multiple estimate, that rose from 39 to 41, according to the rise in the Technical & System Software industry average):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35690;image)
The valuation model says CIMT is extremely attractive, with an expected share price CAGR of 91.7% and an optimal selling price of $18.68.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
First day of true profit taking. I think I will just turn the ticker off today.
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 17, 2007, 10:05:12 AM
First day of true profit taking. I think I will just turn the ticker off today.
Yep, probably that's the right attitude. CIMT is touching a support area, prior resistance. Unfortunately stocks don't go straight up. Fundamentals didn't change, just weak hands leaving the ship, over time CIMT will be at new highs.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 11:23:56 AM
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 17, 2007, 10:05:12 AM
First day of true profit taking. I think I will just turn the ticker off today.
Yep, probably that's the right attitude. CIMT is touching a support area, prior resistance. Unfortunately stocks don't go straight up. Fundamentals didn't change, just weak hands leaving the ship, over time CIMT will be at new highs.
I added more shares at 3.60, wanted to round out my position and figure since it has the highest CAGR number now, its still a great buy ;D ;)
How are the technicals (or situation) of this different from CPNE's?
Quote from: kpunarc on April 17, 2007, 12:25:00 PM
How are the technicals (or situation) of this different from CPNE's?
CPNE is an internet sales company that had a high churn rate with markets mainly in the US. CIMT sells software, mainly Computer Assisted Design in fast growing markets outside the US like China. It is an Israeli company. I have held both stocks and believe CIMT is much more the "real deal" than CPNE was. Just my 2 cents.
Hoping for CIMT to hammer today with a close above $4, might be too much to ask but would be a nice bullish sign :D
Quote from: kpunarc on April 17, 2007, 12:25:00 PM
How are the technicals (or situation) of this different from CPNE's?
There are so many differences I wouldn't know where to start, I don't know why do you even ask the question. I guess the main difference is CIMT has a sustainable business model that has been in place for several years and CPNE.OB, especially www.onlinesupplier.com, is based on a service with a 60% monthly costumer churn rate and therefore is unsustainable over the medium term.
Another difference could be that today CIMT is a $30 M market cap software company and CPNE.OB is a $101 M market cap, so, more than 3 times larger.
There are many, many differences between both businesses (Tokyopua also named a few), and I expect the share price evolution over the long term to also be different.
A good chance to buy this thing at these levels .....
This stock gave a clear buying sign today when it touched 3.56 ;D
I have move confidence in this stock now more that ever ::)
as well as it's additional fuel for this rocket to shoot to new highs ..
I must admit, I was a tad nervous when CIMT traded down 14% early in the trading session.
What a roaring comeback! The Ask is 3.97 right now!
Very exciting and I agree; Very Bullish Move!
The problem I have with both CIMT and SILC is that they are really thinly trading stocks... even for 3 SOF community. 5k buy order just moved CIMT up $0.15..
If there is an unexpected negative news and David changes his opinion and gives a sell signal it will dramatically fall within minutes.
I good example was CECE few days back.. Drop happened in the morning on low volume and CECE recovered and has been trading in $13.4-$14 range since that day...
P.S. I bought some CIMT today around support as I missed the first run...
Quote from: wxmang on April 17, 2007, 01:38:30 PM
I must admit, I was a tad nervous when CIMT traded down 14% early in the trading session.
What a roaring comeback! The Ask is 3.97 right now!
Very exciting and I agree; Very Bullish Move!
Hi wxmang :)
You need to be calm to profit over the long term, and not let yourself get excited with intraday movements. Look for excitement someplace else, not the stock market, because emotions can take away your money.
I look not to be happy when my stocks rise, so I don't have to be sad when they go down. It's all business as usual, nothing will ever surprise me in the stock market, not after what I've been through my 11 year trading career.
Of course, I'm also learning to be more calm towards stocks and investments in general. For example, in CIMT, I bought it at $2.90 and saw it go down 18% right after I bought it. At the current $3.79 price I'm winning 30.7%, after being with a 62% profit two days ago, since the stock is down 19.7% from its high.
All this short term movement is irrelevant to the long term result of this investment, because only changes in the fundamentals can change my expectation of selling this stock above $18 :)
Quote from: raspi on April 17, 2007, 01:57:10 PM
The problem I have with both CIMT and SILC is that they are really thinly trading stocks... even for 3 SOF community. 5k buy order just moved CIMT up $0.15..
If there is an unexpected negative news and David changes his opinion and gives a sell signal it will dramatically fall within minutes.
I good example was CECE few days back.. Drop happened in the morning on low volume and CECE recovered and has been trading in $13.4-$14 range since that day...
P.S. I bought some CIMT today around support as I missed the first run...
Yes, there are risks, but the profit potential clearly outweighs the risks in my opinion. If the stocks moves a lot volume will rise, no doubt about it. What do you call a dramatic fall, 10, 20%? That's not a lot, not if it happens way above our entry point ;D
I wonder, why didn't you buy when I first recommended CIMT? The stock even went down a good 10-20% after I recommended it.
I'm glad that CIMT is giving you and others, by being down today, the confidence to buy the stock.
Let's just hope the fundamental trends that I foresee (I believe I'm not being particularly agressive on CIMT, just 20% revenue CAGR expected) truly unfold. I have no reason to suspect that won't happen.
Gee, I'm writing too much about CIMT today, over the intraday (and I don't appreciate writing when the market is open, I prefer to think with a cool head when the market is closed and I can't do anything anyway).
Hi David,
I know what you mean about emotions...
Alot of folks lose alot of money due to their emotions.
Looks like a few CIMT shareholders were getting "emotional" today :)
I wouldn't be surprised if CIMT roars back above 4 by the end of the week.
Thanks David for all your hard work and educating us :)
I can't tell you how much I appreciate your daily updates.
It's like having a financial advisor sitting right next to me everyday :)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 17, 2007, 02:08:46 PM
I wonder, why didn't you buy when I first recommended CIMT? The stock even went down a good 10-20% after I recommended it.
I did not buy because of low volume and because I was busy accumulating XING ;) (it paid of today.. I think CECT IPO is a great news). But seeing how great you are doing :) I decided to follow your picks more closely and I just rebought JASO. Yesterday I put a sale order AH at 28.5 and it was filled.
Quote from: tokyopua on April 11, 2007, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 11, 2007, 09:12:35 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Given the volume and the fact it didnt close within 50% of the real body it probably doesnt have much bearish signifigance. However, with this pattern (as with many candlestick patterns), Steve Nison suggests that it can be open to interpretation:
"The first day of this two-candle pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens above the prior session's high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). However, by the end of the second day's session, the market closes deeply within the prior day's white body. The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetration of the black session's close into the white real body. If the black candle does not close below the halfway point of the white candlestick, it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following the dark cloud-cover. In some circumstances I will also view it as a dark-cloud cover even if the open is over the prior session's close instead of the prior session's high."
I consider Nison to be the authority on candlesticks, so I go by his interpretations. He has two scenarios where he will still call it dark cloud cover where others might not, but in my experience this flexibility has saved me some money by looking at the overall picture.
So this is a dark cloud cover per his definition (you could his two variations Weak Dark Cloud Cover and Didn't-Open-Above-Prior-High Dark Cloud Cover, lol), but per his guidelines not one that you would necessarily act on or expect to follow through bearishly.
Also, as David added, the low volume reduces the signifigance further.
[/quote
Tokyopua, looks like the dark cloud cover (or almost) did have ST bearish implications. Is there a 5 day day bearish candlestick pattern (the cloud cover day + next 3 rising short white days + next long red day in the chart? It looks to me like it would be a bearish pattern though I can't find any in the book. Just trying to learn. Thanks.
CIMT has been trading within an ascending channel and today it touched the lower band of that ascending channel. It also found support between $3.5 and $3.6, because that was a previous area of resistance, now support.
My valuation model says the following:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35734;image)
The model says CIMT will be a $29.19 stock in 2009, and given that expectation, it should only be sold at $18.70 today.
Are there risks to these estimates and expectation? Of course there are, there's always uncertainty in the stock market, but I believe my estimates are reasonable, here's why:
1) Dilution factor of 1.
CIMT has more or less the same number of shares outstanding since it became a publicly traded company in 1996 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann). Management didn't dilute shareholder's value when the company was losing money and needed it, why would management dilute now that the company has a strong balance sheet and is profitable? No way.
2) Revenue CAGR of 1.2
Just 20% revenue CAGR between now and 2009 is nothing special for a company making a strong bet in China and other emerging markets. CIMT grew 80% in China in 2006 and is expanding in that fast growing and now huge economy:
«Cimatron's subsidiary in China achieved 80% revenue growth in 2006. The Chinese market is the fastest growing target market for Cimatron, and we continue to invest and expand our operation in this strategic market.»
• Cimatron Opens Two New Offices in China to Meet Growing Demand (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070327/uktu006.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Tue, Mar 27)
3) Net profit margin of 15%
Net profit margin was already 9.24% in Q4 2006. We've previously studied how CIMT's costs were extremely contained over the last few years, which means a good part of any revenue growth will go directly to the bottom line. I believe that CIMT, being a software company will easily meet or exceed a net profit margin of 15%.
4) EPS multiple of 41
Well, this is the Technical & System Software industry average EPS multiple, I don't see why CIMT shouldn't be valued at the average in 2009, if all other estimates are met.
So, I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands. I believe it can be interesting, for someone curious and with time and patience for it, to read this thread from page 1, to see how other similar corrections unfolded and our feelings and thoughts at the time.
David, its taken me awhile, but I am starting to better understand your long term investment strategy. Becuase finally as CIMT plummeted these last 2 days I had no negative emotions whatsoever. And its so much less effort to just be holding a stock than always watching it looking for the next best thing. Its a lot less overall effort, less mental stress, and also has the potential for much greater profit, not only from not missing the main move, but also from the possibility of selling with long term capital gains taxes instead of the much higher short term capital gains taxes.
The skill of course is in finding the right stocks, and you have done so repeatedly in the past (just that you didnt hold the stocks) even before you had your new quantatative model.
It has taken me awhile to see the light more clearly, but now that I have, hats off to you, and applauds!
I suppose I should post this elsewhere, but the fact is that CIMT is the stock that helped me see how what you are doing can work.
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 17, 2007, 03:29:26 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 11, 2007, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 11, 2007, 09:12:35 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Given the volume and the fact it didnt close within 50% of the real body it probably doesnt have much bearish signifigance. However, with this pattern (as with many candlestick patterns), Steve Nison suggests that it can be open to interpretation:
"The first day of this two-candle pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens above the prior session's high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). However, by the end of the second day's session, the market closes deeply within the prior day's white body. The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetration of the black session's close into the white real body. If the black candle does not close below the halfway point of the white candlestick, it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following the dark cloud-cover. In some circumstances I will also view it as a dark-cloud cover even if the open is over the prior session's close instead of the prior session's high."
I consider Nison to be the authority on candlesticks, so I go by his interpretations. He has two scenarios where he will still call it dark cloud cover where others might not, but in my experience this flexibility has saved me some money by looking at the overall picture.
So this is a dark cloud cover per his definition (you could his two variations Weak Dark Cloud Cover and Didn't-Open-Above-Prior-High Dark Cloud Cover, lol), but per his guidelines not one that you would necessarily act on or expect to follow through bearishly.
Also, as David added, the low volume reduces the signifigance further.
[/quote
Tokyopua, looks like the dark cloud cover (or almost) did have ST bearish implications. Is there a 5 day day bearish candlestick pattern (the cloud cover day + next 3 rising short white days + next long red day in the chart? It looks to me like it would be a bearish pattern though I can't find any in the book. Just trying to learn. Thanks.
Hi BigSully,
To my knowledge there is not a specific pattern like you describe, but that is the power of looking at things Nison's way, you get to understand how candles just paint the push and pull of the bulls and bears in a general sense, and simply SEE the likely outcome based on interpretation and experience. (Not to say it always works lol).
However, that being said, another interesting thing that Nison does sometimes is to "combine candlesticks". I think its as simple as taking the open of the first day and the close of the last days, and then adding shadows for the extremes of those days. So if you did that with the 3 small white candles we had before yesterday, you would indeed see a real by-the-book dark cloud cover. That would have told you that today was also likely to be down. Of course, just seeing yesterday's candle engulf 3 prior real white bodies could also tell you things were bearish too!
And yet seeing all this, I still bought more today, because I really like the CIMT story and potential, I dont care if it goes down further as its long term potential is awesome! Had this been another stock I was short term trading though, I would have been more likely to sell based on the candlesticks.
Of course,
Quote from: tokyopua on April 17, 2007, 10:05:36 PM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 17, 2007, 03:29:26 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 11, 2007, 10:13:53 AM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 11, 2007, 09:12:35 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on April 10, 2007, 11:08:12 PM
Interesting that today is the first really bearish candlestick pattern for CIMT since the first big breakout. Can CIMT beat the Bearish Cloud Cover near term? Who cares, like David says, this one is a buy and hold! ;)
Yes, a bit of a bearish candlestick, but volume was so low that I don't think it has much technical significance. Anyway, as you rightly wrote, fundamental trends say CIMT is worth $17.75 today (of course, if those trends continue, but that must be the natural assumption - that will be confirmed or not by the actual results), so I'll keep on holding CIMT.
Tokyopua, I'm still learning technical analysis so correct me if I'm wrong, my book says for a dark cloud cover to occur, the second (black) day had to close below the midpoint of the previous days white body which would be below $4.23. It says there are no exceptions to the pattern. Still there is no denying it was a bearish candle and almost a dark cloud cover. Lets see what happens.
Given the volume and the fact it didnt close within 50% of the real body it probably doesnt have much bearish signifigance. However, with this pattern (as with many candlestick patterns), Steve Nison suggests that it can be open to interpretation:
"The first day of this two-candle pattern is a strong white real body. The second day's price opens above the prior session's high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). However, by the end of the second day's session, the market closes deeply within the prior day's white body. The greater the degree of penetration into the white real body, the more likely this is a top. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50-percent penetration of the black session's close into the white real body. If the black candle does not close below the halfway point of the white candlestick, it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following the dark cloud-cover. In some circumstances I will also view it as a dark-cloud cover even if the open is over the prior session's close instead of the prior session's high."
I consider Nison to be the authority on candlesticks, so I go by his interpretations. He has two scenarios where he will still call it dark cloud cover where others might not, but in my experience this flexibility has saved me some money by looking at the overall picture.
So this is a dark cloud cover per his definition (you could his two variations Weak Dark Cloud Cover and Didn't-Open-Above-Prior-High Dark Cloud Cover, lol), but per his guidelines not one that you would necessarily act on or expect to follow through bearishly.
Also, as David added, the low volume reduces the signifigance further.
[/quote
Tokyopua, looks like the dark cloud cover (or almost) did have ST bearish implications. Is there a 5 day day bearish candlestick pattern (the cloud cover day + next 3 rising short white days + next long red day in the chart? It looks to me like it would be a bearish pattern though I can't find any in the book. Just trying to learn. Thanks.
Hi BigSully,
To my knowledge there is not a specific pattern like you describe, but that is the power of looking at things Nison's way, you get to understand how candles just paint the push and pull of the bulls and bears in a general sense, and simply SEE the likely outcome based on interpretation and experience. (Not to say it always works lol).
However, that being said, another interesting thing that Nison does sometimes is to "combine candlesticks". I think its as simple as taking the open of the first day and the close of the last days, and then adding shadows for the extremes of those days. So if you did that with the 3 small white candles we had before yesterday, you would indeed see a real by-the-book dark cloud cover. That would have told you that today was also likely to be down. Of course, just seeing yesterday's candle engulf 3 prior real white bodies could also tell you things were bearish too!
And yet seeing all this, I still bought more today, because I really like the CIMT story and potential, I dont care if it goes down further as its long term potential is awesome! Had this been another stock I was short term trading though, I would have been more likely to sell based on the candlesticks.
Of course,
Thanks much for the help Tokyo. That makes alot sense to me.
It's kind of funny to me that I've mostly always been a fundamental investor and am now trying to learn to become more of a trader, while David has been convincing many ST traders that the way to go is to buy the best fundamentally strong prospects, know what you hold, ignore the very ST noise, and try not to let emotions take over. I didn't really need convincing of that, but I still definitely feel the need to learn tech analysis. I am in awe of the sophistication of the many tech analysts here and hope to someday measure up to some small degree. So much of it is still way beyond my scope of understanding. Kudos to David also for his ever expanding, in depth, and excellent fundamental analysis with a lesser emphasis on ST technicals. 3SoF has been combining the best of both worlds (fundamental/technical) and that's why I really dig this site.
"I am in awe of the sophistication of the many tech analysts here and hope to someday measure up to some small degree."
Remember, the less people that "see" a chart in a particular way, the less reliable the chart is as a short term indicator. A high number of people must "analyze" the chart the exact same way, in order for the chart to move the stock in any given direction. The greater the "sophistication" required to interpret the chart, the less likely it is other people will interpret the chart in the same way and, thus, the less likely the chart is to predict (rather, cause) movement in the stock.
When I worked for Raytheon Company in Massachusetts (a large defense contractor) there was an old man (for as long I know him he looked old), originally from Israel. He was (and still is) a technical fellow. The stock charts were always on his screen. Once I asked him what his strategy was and he replied, "I look for stocks with sound fundamentals and low value. I buy them and hold until I squeeze them like a lemon for all the growth." One year, after financials of our small research division were revealed to us, he gave it a smirk and told me he made more money that year on his long-term investments than the entire division (it was $3M).
I thought I was a hot shot and could not understand why he'd have the patience to sit and wait for such a long time. Now I know why, just like tokyopua has noted. Thanks to David.
I think it's enough ;D
We could see a fast rebound for this stock when it starts its engine on ::)
I see only up direction from these levels ...
David this is the third time I mention KALG and it's up almost 20% since that time ;D
take a look at it
Quote from: Garoh on April 18, 2007, 12:16:00 PM
I think it's enough ;D
We could see a fast rebound for this stock when it starts its engine ON ::)
I see only up direction from these levels ...
David this is the third time I mention KALG and it's up almost 20% since that time ;D
take a look at it
I agree. CIMT is one of the best picks out there, I just bought more shares around $3.65 and the normal pull back wont kill this stock. But I think people got nervous when they saw the 18% down from the new high in just 3 days. As David said, be calm! ;D
Quote from: Garoh on April 18, 2007, 12:16:00 PM
I think it's enough ;D
We could see a fast rebound for this stock when it starts its engine on ::)
I see only up direction from these levels ...
David this is the third time I mention KALG and it's up almost 20% since that time ;D
take a look at it
I couldn't find KALG on my database or in www.stockcharts.com, are you sure that's the ticker symbol?
Ok, got it my fundamental data service ... It shows zero revenues and as for business description: "The Company is currently seeking opportunities for profitable operations."
Why do you like it?
Just bought 3600shares of CIMT, finally got in! :)
Now, that is a Great Deal!
;)
Wxmang
Quote from: David Randolph on April 18, 2007, 12:30:02 PM
Quote from: Garoh on April 18, 2007, 12:16:00 PM
I think it's enough ;D
We could see a fast rebound for this stock when it starts its engine on ::)
I see only up direction from these levels ...
David this is the third time I mention KALG and it's up almost 20% since that time ;D
take a look at it
I couldn't find KALG on my database or in www.stockcharts.com, are you sure that's the ticker symbol?
Ok, got it my fundamental data service ... It shows zero revenues and as for business description: "The Company is currently seeking opportunities for profitable operations."
Why do you like it?
David the Coal industry is hot these days
CIMT starting to show some reversal strength today ;D
Since I began trading several years ago, the one and only best thing I have ever learned is what David has been preaching all along....."Sit Tight and let the profits run! My life has changed 10 fold! I no longer sit and watch my trades all day, I spend more time with my 18 month old and even started some new home improvement projects! i still leave my screens on and check every so often. I spend most of my time on this board learning from everyone and sharing whatever info I have. David, you are "THE ONE"!! ;D Thanks!
Mbaugh
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 18, 2007, 07:23:49 AM
"I am in awe of the sophistication of the many tech analysts here and hope to someday measure up to some small degree."
Remember, the less people that "see" a chart in a particular way, the less reliable the chart is as a short term indicator. A high number of people must "analyze" the chart the exact same way, in order for the chart to move the stock in any given direction. The greater the "sophistication" required to interpret the chart, the less likely it is other people will interpret the chart in the same way and, thus, the less likely the chart is to predict (rather, cause) movement in the stock.
Sure Buddjas, I can understand the subjectiveness in technical analysis and the effect on action. For me, it will always be fundamentals first, technicals second when making decisions. I don't intend to get overly involved with TA, and probably don't have the learning ability to do so anyway. But I do definitely need a much better awareness of it. Thanks for the comments.
Quote from: tokyopua on April 17, 2007, 09:54:11 PM
David, its taken me awhile, but I am starting to better understand your long term investment strategy. Becuase finally as CIMT plummeted these last 2 days I had no negative emotions whatsoever. And its so much less effort to just be holding a stock than always watching it looking for the next best thing. Its a lot less overall effort, less mental stress, and also has the potential for much greater profit, not only from not missing the main move, but also from the possibility of selling with long term capital gains taxes instead of the much higher short term capital gains taxes.
The skill of course is in finding the right stocks, and you have done so repeatedly in the past (just that you didnt hold the stocks) even before you had your new quantatative model.
It has taken me awhile to see the light more clearly, but now that I have, hats off to you, and applauds!
I suppose I should post this elsewhere, but the fact is that CIMT is the stock that helped me see how what you are doing can work.
It took you just a few weeks, it took me several years :-[
I'm glad you're joining the more fundamental, more longer term approach. The more eyes and minds we have thinking about long term factors moving stocks, the better.
As for CIMT, you have its valuation model on the Main Portfolio page (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), let me just say the stock had an initial reaction to support, I expect it to make new highs soon.
CIMT's trade reminds me of ANGN, do you remember that stock? Very low volume stock that I kept saying it would rise a lot, but on a technical breakdown or something I sold it. It took several months, but the stock indeed went up as I expected, but I didn't make any money from it, because I didn't have the courage of my convictions back then:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=35847;image)
And because I want to learn from past mistakes, not keep repeating them, I say that I won't sell CIMT whatever the chart makes, I simply don't care. Now I have the advantage of knowing more about fundamental analysis, so I base my trades in long term financial information, and that information tells me CIMT will be a $29.19 stock three years from now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main).
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Hi david
This stock still looks good technically and I can see good signs of a very soon explosion ....
just keep the good work :)
Interview with Danny Haran, President & CEO of Cimatron Limited(CIMT) is now online at the Wallstreetreporter website! (Windows Media Player required!)
http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=23800# (http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=23800#)
direct link: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=23800&player=wma (http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=23800&player=wma)
Quote from: Se7en on April 20, 2007, 06:54:29 AM
Interview with Danny Haran, President & CEO of Cimatron Limited(CIMT) is now online at the Wallstreetreporter website! (Windows Media Player required!)
http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=23800# (http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/profile.php?id=23800#)
direct link: http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=23800&player=wma (http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/interview.php?id=23800&player=wma)
Thanks for posting the links to that interview Se7en (let me applaud you 5 times), it was interesting, even though of course we had no new financial details. Here are my highlights:
- The company has more than doubled its target market with the new products it launched recently;
- CIMT now has 20% of its work force and 7 offices in China;
- The company's main objective now is to grow revenues as it pushes its new products into the market. As the CEO said: "Time to execute".
On my model I have just 20% expected revenue CAGR, if it comes out more than that CIMT can go from being a spectacular pick to ... I don't have words to qualify the quality of this Main Portfolio's (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php) holding.
Just hold on to it through all the ups and downs, through all the days with almost no volume, and you'll be rewarded possibly like you've never been rewarded with any other stock.
Very nice Interview :)
I think this one will leave no doubts about the company great work ....
David, I have a question.
When you use your stock evaluation system you apply equal criteria to stocks of all companies, US-based and non-US based. I believe this is fair. But my question is, could big investors view more risk in investing in, say, Chinese stocks? I personally would not see such risk as I am sure Chinese government takes big role in the market speculation and should create favorable conditions for it. But what's your take on a big investor's attitude towards these type of stocks? Will they consider "undervalue" as a normal situation or not?
Thank you.
Quote from: berloga on April 20, 2007, 09:28:01 AM
David, I have a question.
When you use your stock evaluation system you apply equal criteria to stocks of all companies, US-based and non-US based. I believe this is fair. But my question is, could big investors view more risk in investing in, say, Chinese stocks? I personally would not see such risk as I am sure Chinese government takes big role in the market speculation and should create favorable conditions for it. But what's your take on a big investor's attitude towards these type of stocks? Will they consider "undervalue" as a normal situation or not?
Thank you.
I believe foreign companies, especially companies from high growth economies like China or India, should trade at higher multiples than US economy related companies, because growth prospects are higher for foreign companies.
The Chinese government has nothing to do with it in my opinion, it's the earnings yield one expects to obtain holding shares that drives share prices higher or lower over the long term.
Over time, it won't matter all that much what is the origin of the company, because they're all working to be global anyway, what matters to big investors is the return on investment they expect to obtain buying shares.
Considering CIMT, it is an Israeli company, but it has global operations, in Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. In the CEO's interview just above we hear the company has local people leading local branches and sales efforts, not Israeli people, so they can better understand the culture and ways of doing things in each country.
CIMT is a $29.5 M market cap global software company, which is ready for strong growth and profitability. Sales in 2006 were $21.5 B. With two more successful quarters I think it wouldn't shock anybody if CIMT were a $150 M market cap. And that would mean $18.45 a share.
Curiously, my valuation model says the optimal selling price for CIMT is $18.70 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main), so it comes pretty close.
I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands.
I agree that Chinese government does not intervene, I meant to say it is in its interest of promoting a healthy environment for the growth of domestic business and hence foreign investors.
Looking at the 400% projected return for SILC and CIMT warms my hands a lot. It also gives peace of mind: so long nothing fundamentally changes for these two, we have to do 2/15 less work searching for stocks.
Look at PCU, David. We sold it in January when it had a glitch at $52. It is trading now at $83 and keeps creeping up. 60% profit gone on a technical fluctuation, just what Jesse would warn us not to do. I am not saying PCU could be the right choice, but we did not have your filter and analysis back then structured as they are now.
We are touching the trend line support at 3.66 .
We should see a good rebound tobreak today's high with good volume OR >:(
Looks like someone is trying to maintain the stock at these levels for sometime , are we heading to a new high soon ?? ;D
QuoteI agree that Chinese government does not intervene, I meant to say it is in its interest of promoting a healthy environment for the growth of domestic business and hence foreign investors.
Absolutely.
QuoteLooking at the 400% projected return for SILC and CIMT warms my hands a lot. It also gives peace of mind: so long nothing fundamentally changes for these two, we have to do 2/15 less work searching for stocks.
Yes, these two have amazing fundamental trends. They're also both very small caps, which probably means it is easier to find outstanding value around micro caps than when studying $500 M or more medium size caps. This is probably because inefficiency is higher at small and undiscovered stocks. For example, Yahoo Finance shows zero analysts covering SILC and CIMT.
QuoteLook at PCU, David. We sold it in January when it had a glitch at $52. It is trading now at $83 and keeps creeping up. 60% profit gone on a technical fluctuation, just what Jesse would warn us not to do. I am not saying PCU could be the right choice, but we did not have your filter and analysis back then structured as they are now.
Yes, PCU always looked like a very attractive holding, but my hands were weaker back then, I didn't know enough about fundamental analysis to have profound confidence in it. I mixed micro and macro analysis and lost faith in PCU because $copper was going down, remember? Had I listened to a sound microeconomic fundamental analysis and probably we would still be holding that great stock. Live and learn to get better at this game is my constant pursuit. I believe we're on the right track, even though there's still a lot to learn, of course.
Quote from: Garoh on April 23, 2007, 12:21:37 PM
We are touching the trend line support at 3.66 .
We should see a good rebound tobreak today's high with good volume OR >:(
Looks like someone is trying to maintain the stock at these levels for sometime , are we heading to a new high soon ?? ;D
My take is you're too much short term oriented Garoh, looking at intraday quotes and trying to get tips for the future from short term fluctuations. As I've shown you on the ANGN example above, that course of action might lead us to sell because of boredom and ultimately miss the big move (but I love your posts anyway, please keep them coming, or I'll have to push harder on my imagination to have something interesting to write everyday about this stock).
I believe the right attitude is to buy CIMT and forget about it. The objective of this stock is to make us fall asleep and lose hope as probably there will be days where it won't trade one single share. The temptation to take a small profit or a small loss will be big, with so many "fast moving stocks" at the distance of a few clicks. CIMT has no enthusiasm, excitement, movement or entertainment to offer. What this great stock has to offer is top fundamental prospects that are very hard to find in the marketplace:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36014;image)
More than 100% share price compound annual growth rate expected for the next 3 years, giving me a final estimated share price of $29.19 (in December 2009).
I don't see any downside to my estimates, just upside to my revenue CAGR estimate, since I'm considering just 20% average annual revenue growth. But, of course, I'll keep studying the stock everyday and adjusting my estimates according to incoming fundamental information. Nobody knows the future, but it surely is reassuring to have an expectation of the future and knowing the exact impact of incoming information on that long term expectation.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
CIMT's 1st quarter results were out at May 17, both in 2005 and 2006, so probably we'll get Q1 2007 results also around that date.
Technically the stock seems to be getting ready for a rally.
I'll continue holding CIMT according to my long term valuation model instructions (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main).
The previous updates tell the story on CIMT, I'll continue holding it for the long term.
Quote from: Garoh on April 05, 2007, 11:46:47 AM
Good work david :)
for the short term I think it should touch 3.50 soon ;D
I could be wrong ::)
Nice stock
Hi David
I mentioned before that it should touch 3.50 before the next nice jump and it did for 2 times yestreday ....
yestreday we saw some strength , we have a limit for the downside here :)
I have more confidence in this stock because of your good work and efforts to give the best details on your picks :)
Please keep the great work
Here's a shot of CIMT's 15 minute chart.
The wolfewave pattern entry may have been hit already at $3.50 using the green line but the yellow line may still be a possibility.
The price is currently above the horizontal support (previous resistance),8ma, and the new (yellow) uptrend line.
So far, it is looking good for CIMT on the 15 minute chart.
The yellow uptrend line currently has the same angle of attack with the green uptrend line above it - a possible uptrend channel.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 26, 2007, 05:41:19 AM
The previous updates tell the story on CIMT, I'll continue holding it for the long term.
This stock reminds me of CVV. Low volume one hence couldnt hold on to it. Now I look back....damn >:(
This time I will hold on to cimt. Keep up the good work david.!!
Wow, CVV jogged my memory...I had to go back to my records from 2005. I sold at $2.16 with a small loss. Two weeks after I sold it jumped to +$3.00. :(
Lessons learned...
Kent
Here's how I see CIMT's daily chart.
By the way, I liked that "stock market talking, the market is open thread".
I've been trying to access the chat room but it doesn't seem to be working properly.
Thanks for your comments Garoh and njshiva :)
Quote from: JKN on April 26, 2007, 08:40:35 AM
Wow, CVV jogged my memory...I had to go back to my records from 2005. I sold at $2.16 with a small loss. Two weeks after I sold it jumped to +$3.00. :(
Lessons learned...
Kent
Yes, and now at $9, a 316% rise from your sale at $2.16. And why did you sell? Because you were focused on short term technical information. From these experiences with other similar low volume stocks we know we can't pay attention to short term technical information, if we want to reap the big reward.
Quote from: Ares on April 26, 2007, 08:52:44 AM
Here's how I see CIMT's daily chart.
By the way, I liked that "stock market talking, the market is open thread".
I've been trying to access the chat room but it doesn't seem to be working properly.
The chat works, but it is empty. If you're looking for day trading chit chat, tick by tick analysis, short term technical information, don't look inside the 3 Stocks Premium area. I've been a day trader myself for 5 long years and I'll never go back to it.
As for CIMT, the company is set for strong profitability, and with that the stock will inevitably rise. The big investments in Research & Development were already made in the past:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36230;image)
This is one of the reasons I expect the net profit margin to increase from the 9.24% achieved in Q4 2006 to increase to 15% or so in the future:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36231;image)
My valuation model tells me that given my estimates, CIMT will be a $27.18 stock three years from now and the optimal selling price today is $17.42, so I'll keep on holding CIMT through all the technical noise.
I am surprised that we still have someone unloading CIMT on a daily basis. I am still holding, I'm just confused as to who keeps selling into each uptick we have. I figure that the closer we get to earnings the stock would rise some. Any questions or comments?
Quote from: mbaugh on April 27, 2007, 01:28:49 PM
Any questions or comments?
$3.30 currently. What's the next support level?
When are they due to report?
I did find this:
Manufacturers attending the upcoming Austech 2007 show (Melbourne, May 22-25) will have the opportunity to view Cimatron's products, including the newly released CimatronE Version 8, at the Headland booth E40.
This should generate interest.
I sold half of my shares of CIMT around 3.6 on 24th after it keeps dropping from the new high and touched 3.52 on 23rd. And the stock is a bit on the bearish side, so David, do you still hold this in strong hand?
I think this is just part of being in a microcap stock. I don't put too much trust in technical analysis with such a low float.
Perfect time to buy when everyone else is bailing out from being scared. The weak hands are almost all out now.
Well this is not interesting at all :-\
probably will see 2.94 If we don't get any news to stop this pressure !!
Quote from: mbaugh on April 27, 2007, 01:28:49 PM
I am surprised that we still have someone unloading CIMT on a daily basis. I am still holding, I'm just confused as to who keeps selling into each uptick we have. I figure that the closer we get to earnings the stock would rise some. Any questions or comments?
The short term selling doesn't mean anything for the long term. People are selling because they're afraid, not because of a fundamental motive. This happens will most small cap, low volume, big gainers.
Quote from: Kublakhan on April 27, 2007, 02:03:13 PM
Quote from: mbaugh on April 27, 2007, 01:28:49 PM
Any questions or comments?
$3.30 currently. What's the next support level?
Well, an healthy correction should stop around current levels, since the stock made a 50% Fibonacci retracement. But it can go down to touch the 50 days SMA (although I don't think so at this stage), which currently stands at $2.79.
Quote from: Houlahan on April 27, 2007, 02:27:33 PM
When are they due to report?
I did find this:
Manufacturers attending the upcoming Austech 2007 show (Melbourne, May 22-25) will have the opportunity to view Cimatron's products, including the newly released CimatronE Version 8, at the Headland booth E40.
This should generate interest.
Probably May 17.
Quote from: gix330 on April 27, 2007, 03:00:13 PM
I sold half of my shares of CIMT around 3.6 on 24th after it keeps dropping from the new high and touched 3.52 on 23rd. And the stock is a bit on the bearish side, so David, do you still hold this in strong hand?
Absolutely, holding my full position bought at $2.90.
Quote from: ygtrdr on April 27, 2007, 03:04:35 PM
I think this is just part of being in a microcap stock. I don't put too much trust in technical analysis with such a low float.
I agree.
Quote from: nullzero on April 27, 2007, 03:06:46 PM
Perfect time to buy when everyone else is bailing out from being scared. The weak hands are almost all out now.
I agree.
Quote from: Garoh on April 27, 2007, 03:29:45 PM
Well this is not interesting at all :-\
probably will see 2.94 If we don't get any news to stop this pressure !!
It has nothing to do with news in my opinion. The stock will claw back up soon, after an extreme point of fear is reached.
I'm expecting a big reward from this stock, but one needs to ignore the short term volatility to win.
Good luck :)
If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36271;image)
There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.
And the future was:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36272;image)
I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.
My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.
David You'er right with every word you wrote , it's 100% true ...
but people are affraid , they don't have the knowledge like you ....
just a few words like what you just wrote would make them calm down :)
Nobody can garantee the future ...
thanks for your efforts to eveything in its right place
QuoteNobody can garantee the future ...
Right, please note that I don't guarantee the future, what I'm saying is that you can't predict the future using short term technical information, so the breakdown today is meaningless.
As I look to the fundamental landscape, I see a $26.5 M global software company that just turned profitable. If profitability continues, the stock will rise a lot from current levels. Company officials expect profitability to continue and expand, after years of cost cutting and restructuring.
But, as you said, nobody knows the future. I hope I'm right on CIMT. Time will tell.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 27, 2007, 04:08:10 PM
If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36271;image)
There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.
And the future was:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36272;image)
I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.
My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.
David you make excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more. But I did almost as bad as selling on the breakdown. After the frustration of holding a good while and seeing it hit $5.50 several times, only to fall back each time, I figured I would outsmart em next time so I put in a sell order somewhere above $5 for most of my shares and forgot about it.. Turns out I got severely outsmarted. The only caveat was that I got I think $6.28 for them on that earnings morning gap. Still severely painful and a lesson learned.
I agree with David....
I am very afraid that I am down 20% on CIMT and TZOO now, but look at ANGN..
Can you believe that? Holy Moley! More than Trippled!
Here is how I deal with the pain.
I continually reassure myself that I am only in a stock with only 6.66% amount.
Even if David is wrong (Heaven forbid) and CIMT goes down to Zero (Pretty Unlikely), its only 6.66% of my portfolio. Big Friggin Deal!
We are most like going to have one or two monsters in our portfolios that could double easily with time of course :)
Enjoy the ride when it comes. I am continually watching that MACD & Stochastic on CIMT.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=cimt&Refer=http://clearstation.etrade.com/
I think it will trend up soon :)
Wxmang
I am not even blinking an eye at today, of all the picks in the 3SOF portfolio I have the most confidence in CIMT. A few days of down movement is to be expected here and there, especially after the recent monster run. My "profit" got cut in half and it can go back down to zero or even be negative for awhile but CIMT is the one stock I have the strongest hands in.
I dont believe I am naive here, as a recent "sure thing" with CPNE I did sell knowing that the business model was unsound despite lots of optimism on this board. But with CIMT I see a strong business model, global expansion at the perfect time, a high margin potential, and from a country with a great history of people and businesses that know how to make money.
It is thus a matter of faith in what we know now, but as long as you can maintain that faith then on days like these you just have to imagine how good you will feel 7 months from now at year end when CIMT should easily have doubled or more from here. Literally see that number in your portfolio and you can feel more reassured.
Have not looked at CIMT till today, the story looks good, hope revenues keep growing.
Will probably trend down to $3 or so before going back up if they have a good quarter.
Last quarters earnings were mostly a+ because of there cost cutting expenses.
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 27, 2007, 04:49:20 PM
David you make excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more.
How many are considering buying more on the dip, or averaging down if this goes back to the $2 range?
I know David isn't keen on that strategy, but it sounds like there others sufficiently exuding with confidence, that they might.
It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss. I will not. There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.
Quote from: Kublakhan on April 27, 2007, 05:58:20 PM
Quote from: BigSully1 on April 27, 2007, 04:49:20 PM
David you make excellent points. On ANGN, I didn't sell mine when it broke down, but bought even more.
How many are considering buying more on the dip, or averaging down if this goes back to the $2 range?
I know David isn't keen on that strategy, but it sounds like there others sufficiently exuding with confidence, that they might.
As David will tell you, you should be careful about averaging down. Be careful about getting too extended as then your hands become weaker should the stock go down further, or will be too eager to sell much too soon with a meager profit compared to what may be had. I've had this experience many times as in the example of what I did on ANGN.
There is still also the real chance of error in expectations.
I never purchased CIMT, at least not yet. I thought it speculative and I would have liked to see another report first. However if the price gets irresistable enough, I will likely take the plunge anyway. There is also risk in my strategy, in that I may never get in and reap the potential big rewards, should David's expectations pan out. GL.
Well, I blieve CIMT is a huge win, check out ADSK, I bought it 5 years ago, turned off the quote screen and held it, now how much is it?? :D The much more important, ADSK is actually the major competitor to CIMT, only much bigger, with 9B market cap ::)
I went to a bookstore in Shanghai yesterday, and guess what? I found 2 computer books on Cimatron ::) I never expect CIMT will be as big as ADSK in CAD/CAM area, but with 30M market cap and work hard to market its products, it will be worth at least 1B in 5 years.
And the most interesting thing is: on www.cimatron.com.cn, there is press release every 2 days (for example, cimatron E8 is localized into Chinese, launch in Beijing, road show in Suzhou...too much), on http://www.cimatron.com.cn/pages/news2007.asp, you don't need to be able to read Chinese, just check out the date, you will see how intensively the news are out here, if the management cares to put some time to translate it into English just like CHINA's management did, it will be well over USD 9 now :o
Anyway, I believe this is another 'buy and forget', just my 2 cents ;)
I personally am more comfortable with daytrading but if I were to get in on CIMT for the longer term based on fundamentals, I will time my entry by buying weakness if it hits the 3.05 range since it broke the 4.44 range.
It would be nice to see if the market maker is sitting on the bid at that support on the day I pull the trigger.
If buying on strength, I would wait for the weekly chart to go above the 8ma with a weekly higher high.
Quote from: David Randolph on April 27, 2007, 04:08:10 PM
If you embrace a short term technical mindset, I'm sure you would be a seller on the following technical breakdown:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36271;image)
There's no way you could defend this stock technically, yet, fundamentals were very attractive at the time.
And the future was:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36272;image)
I believe this example shows you can't trust short term technical information for your long term investment decisions. If you want we can discuss my fundamental outlook, but as I've said previously, up or down 20 or 30% in a stock like CIMT means nothing for the long term development of the company/stock.
My take is people selling today are selling because they don't know what they're doing.
David, I am wondering why you did not buy back ANGN for the portfolio, when it made a huge rally five months after you sold it. You could still made huge chunks of profits if you did. ;)
For CIMT, it should bounce back at 50% Fibonacci retracement, 50sma is also catching up, it might be a good entry point there. IMHO ;)
QuoteWell, I blieve CIMT is a huge win, check out ADSK, I bought it 5 years ago, turned off the quote screen and held it, now how much is it?? The much more important, ADSK is actually the major competitor to CIMT, only much bigger, with 9B market cap
ADSK was at $7 five years ago and it is a $42 stock now, awesome investment chinaguru, congratulations. It is also good to know the potential market size for CIMT is huge, since ADSK is a $9.7 B market cap company in the same sector (even though ADSK is a much more diversified company in terms of its solutions and product offerings).
QuoteI went to a bookstore in Shanghai yesterday, and guess what? I found 2 computer books on Cimatron. I never expect CIMT will be as big as ADSK in CAD/CAM area, but with 30M market cap and work hard to market its products, it will be worth at least 1B in 5 years.
Well, I don't know about $1 B, since that would mean a 37 fold increase from the current $26.5 M and a share price compound annual growth rate of 106.6% for the next 5 years. The company would have to diversify its product offering like ADSK did. But not impossible, in technical software land, everything is possible.
Quote from: Ares on April 28, 2007, 07:07:38 AM
I personally am more comfortable with daytrading but if I were to get in on CIMT for the longer term based on fundamentals, I will time my entry by buying weakness if it hits the 3.05 range since it broke the 4.44 range.
It would be nice to see if the market maker is sitting on the bid at that support on the day I pull the trigger.
If buying on strength, I would wait for the weekly chart to go above the 8ma with a weekly higher high.
Thanks for your opinion Ares, and good luck with your day trading :) I want to be careful not to write anything negative about day trading because I know it depends on your confidence, but my advice, if you allow me, is for you to diversify your income sources.
QuoteDavid, I am wondering why you did not buy back ANGN for the portfolio, when it made a huge rally five months after you sold it. You could still made huge chunks of profits if you did.
I wasn't looking, why should I? And it would be personally hard for me to buy the stock on a 50% gap up a few months after selling the stock (of course, looking at the chart today it would be easy, but back then ...). Also I never make intraday trading decisions, so probably I would buy it 150% higher the next day hahaha
If what you're trying to say is "you can always buy back the stock higher after selling on a technical breakdown if things change" my answer is, yes, you can, and your hands will always be weak and you will always be a seller on a technical breakdown and will never make a huge long term return on your investments acting that way.
I'm looking to think big and think long term, and to think that way I need to study long term factors that affect stock prices, not short term fluctuations. My pursuit is to ignore these since they don't tell me much about the future.
Going back to CIMT, I bought it at $2.90, and several people here bought it lower than myself.
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 27, 2007, 06:14:57 PM
It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss. I will not. There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.
Yes, there's that need, not to prove something about long-term holding, but because my buying price has nothing to do with the company's long term value. By the way buddjas1, I'm still winning on my MSI trades, you're losing because you had weak hands the first time we bought it, right? If I were you I would try to learn from past mistakes and hold CIMT with strong hands, nevermind your buying price.
Honestly, we're looking at 3 - 5 bags of potential profit here, who cares if you get +20% or -20% out of this trade? Don't turn your back to a potential 300 - 500% profit because you're too worried about losing a 20% profit. It's an illusion to think you can get above average returns taking 20% profits in small cap growth stocks. Why is it an illusion? Because you'll need to focus on short term information to try to predict the unpredictable, that is, short term fluctuations in stocks. Sometimes you'll make 20% profit and other times you'll make a 20% loss, not really making any money over the long term.
Again, back to CIMT, my valuation model says current fundamental trends and prospects will take the stock to $27.18 in early 2010 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). I'll keep holding CIMT.
Cimatron to Showcase New Die Design Application at BlechExpo, the Premier International Fair for Sheet Metal Processing
Monday April 30, 5:30 am ET
Die Makers Claim to Win More Business and Complete Projects in Record Time Using the DieDesign Application
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News) announced that visitors to the upcoming BlechExpo trade fair in Germany will be able to see the CimatronE DieDesign, which was officially released several months ago. Cimatron's die design application helps produce quality designs in record time, enabling die makers to win more business and carry out more profitable projects.
"Thanks to DieDesign, we are able to win more business," said Thorsten Franke, project manager at Ernst Keller GmbH in Arnsberg, Germany. "Since we can forecast more accurately, we are able to offer our tools at the right price. Today, we are establishing a quotation at an average of only one hour including the blanking, strip layout, and material utilization. Prior to DieDesign, we needed six hours for this kind of work."
The new application is rich with die-specific functions, so designers no longer need to spend valuable time attempting to construct the unique features of a die using general-purpose CAD systems.
"From the very first time we saw DieDesign application, we realized it was the right tool to make us work more effectively," added Franke. "The blanking is absolutely accurate and detailed. In the past, we usually had to perform several modifications on the ready-produced tool or on the laser cutting in order to accomplish a correct part. Since using DieDesign, the scope of modifications in these phases has been considerably reduced."
The DieDesign application is tightly integrated with other parts of the CimatronE CAD/CAM product suite, streamlining the entire product cycle from quoting to manufacturing and the delivery of a complete die tool. More information about DieDesign is available on Cimatron's website at www.cimatron.com.
Visitors to BlechExpo can view demonstrations of the DieDesign application and the entire CimatronE product suite at Cimatron's booth number 5423, located in hall 5. With nearly 650 exhibitors and more than 14,000 expected visitors, BlechExpo is considered one of the world's premier events for sheet metal processing. This year's fair (June 13-16) will take place for the first time at the new convention center in Stuttgart, Germany. For more information and registration, see http://www.blechexpo-messe.de/en/blechexpo.
"We are excited to introduce the new Die Design application," said Dirk Dombert, manager of Cimatron GmbH. "The initial feedback from customers like Ernst Keller GmbH is extremely encouraging, and we look forward to exhibiting such a promising solution in front of all the industry's professionals that will be attending this important event."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070430/ukm004.html?.v=101 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070430/ukm004.html?.v=101)
Quote from: David Randolph on April 29, 2007, 01:43:30 PM
[Quote from: buddjas1 on April 27, 2007, 06:14:57 PM
It's nice to have strong hands through this, but I hope you don't let this one turn into loss. I will not. There's no need to let CIMT do a MSI, just to prove a point about long-term holding.
Yes, there's that need, not to prove something about long-term holding, but because my buying price has nothing to do with the company's long term value. By the way buddjas1, I'm still winning on my MSI trades, you're losing because you had weak hands the first time we bought it, right? If I were you I would try to learn from past mistakes and hold CIMT with strong hands, nevermind your buying price.
Honestly, we're looking at 3 - 5 bags of potential profit here, who cares if you get +20% or -20% out of this trade? Don't turn your back to a potential 300 - 500% profit because you're too worried about losing a 20% profit. It's an illusion to think you can get above average returns taking 20% profits in small cap growth stocks. Why is it an illusion? Because you'll need to focus on short term information to try to predict the unpredictable, that is, short term fluctuations in stocks. Sometimes you'll make 20% profit and other times you'll make a 20% loss, not really making any money over the long term.
How are you still winning on MSI? You cleared the account on the China scare and, then, you bought in the $3s and it's now at $2.18. Yes, I have lost twice on MSI. However, $2.18 is still much less than the first time that I bought MSI (at $2.50, if I remember right).
That is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from. Never let a profit turn into a loss. If you follow that advice, you'll always make money.
CIMT appears to be fine. So, of course, I'll let the profit run long term. But, if CIMT falls to around $2.90, I'll listen to what the market is telling me and sell accordingly. Remember, there is no assurance that CIMT will even post a profit this quarter, let alone grow at the rate that you project.
QuoteHow are you still winning on MSI? You cleared the account on the China scare and, then, you bought in the $3s and it's now at $2.18. Yes, I have lost twice on MSI. However, $2.18 is still much less than the first time that I bought MSI (at $2.50, if I remember right).
Don't you remember? I bought MSI at $1.93, sold at $3.05, bought back at $3.12 and the stock is now trading at $2.18. So by my account I have a (3.05 - 1.93) - (3.12 - 2.18) = $0.18 gain, which on a $2 stock is about 9-10% profit. You can check the history of these trades on the Closed Trades table (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/closed_trades.php) or on MSI's thread (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8559.msg83205#msg83205). Anyway, not a good holding for me either, even though my timing was just a bit better than yours (on other occasions I'm sure your timing was a lot better than mine - it is mostly a matter of luck and it doesn't affect long term results much in my opinion - even though most people pay a lot of attention to short term timing).
QuoteThat is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from. Never let a profit turn into a loss. If you follow that advice, you'll always make money.
Yes, I agree that is sound advice, but just make sure your definition of profit and loss is large enough not to be affected by short term noise.
QuoteCIMT appears to be fine. So, of course, I'll let the profit run long term. But, if CIMT falls to around $2.90, I'll listen to what the market is telling me and sell accordingly. Remember, there is no assurance that CIMT will even post a profit this quarter, let alone grow at the rate that you project.
I agree, no assurance that CIMT will post a profit in Q2 2007. My point is the stock going down to $2.90 or not between now and the earnings release won't tell you if the company will post a profit or not, because the market doesn't have a clue either, and fear alone can do stuff like that. Did the market know what was going on with ANGN when it made the stock broke down so badly, just a couple of weeks before a one day 150% rally on earnings? It didn't know.
Well, I guess people selling CIMT yesterday also didn't have a clue, since I just checked and the stock is up 8% as I write ;D Yet, I'm equally confident on my fundamental outlook today as I was yesterday, no reassurance from the short term movements of the stock.
I am not trying to pick on you, but that logic is flawed: what if a stock you pick goes down immediately? You will have no profit to take, do you cut loss right away? Then on balance you can not be sure if you will always make money or not.
Quote from: buddjas1 on April 30, 2007, 10:56:58 AM
That is the exact mistake that I am trying to learn from. Never let a profit turn into a loss. If you follow that advice, you'll always make money.
Quote from: realcoolhead on April 30, 2007, 12:27:48 PM
I am not trying to pick on you, but that logic is flawed: what if a stock you pick goes down immediately? You will have no profit to take, do you cut loss right away? Then on balance you can not be sure if you will always make money or not.
I think you answered your own question. Of course, if the stock goes down immediately, there is no profit to take. In those circumstances, I typically hold until I have a profit (sometimes that will never happen and I sell, e.g., CHID, etc.).
Well, Yukiii sold his SILC at $15 on a breakout. He has not owned it ever since, as I understand. Will it get down to that level again in the near future? Unlikely. I did not sell at $25, simply due to the following reason:
I would have to buy lower for more than 6.66% of my capital to even out by the time the stock gets back up to $25, which would violate my money management rule. Therefore, following the rule, I'd make less money with more hair pulled, eventually.
Quote from: berloga on April 30, 2007, 01:06:14 PM
Well, Yukiii sold his SILC at $15 on a breakout. He has not owned it ever since, as I understand. Will it get down to that level again in the near future? Unlikely. I did not sell at $25, simply due to the following reason:
I would have to buy lower for more than 6.66% of my capital to even out by the time the stock gets back up to $25, which would violate my money management rule. Therefore, following the rule, I'd make less money with more hair pulled, eventually.
I suppose, but that's because you
choose to follow a money management "rule." On the other hand, I could put all the SILC proceeds back into SILC today and have 15% more shares than I originally had. (I decided not to buy back SILC, by the way, put it into IEAM.) I made the right call, which may be tough for some to accept.
To each his/her own, I guess.
QuoteI made the right call, which may be tough for some to accept.
Absolutely, you said "sell SILC at $25.5 or so", the stock is now trading at $22.66 after hitting a low of $20.69, so facts undoubtedly show you made the right call.
Let me applaud you for that, please keep up :)
It seems more or less clear now that weak hands sold on yesterday's technical breakdown to the 50% Fibonacci retracement support, and today the stock rallied.
I'm not interested in studying the following type of phenomenon, but watch how the stock perfectly defined a support line for 7 sessions in a row (support seemed to be around $3.5) and broke down below it on the 8th day, when all short term technical guys still holding the stock thought to themselves: "this is it, I have no reason to keep holding this stock, it broke support, let me sell and look for another stock to buy, one that is going up". Today, the short term technical trader looked at a 13% rally and is thinking: "nothing special, the bull trend was broken. I'll only get back into this stock when it breaks out to a new high above $4.72, I have no time to waste". He'll probably buyback the stock at $5 and with luck will sell it at $6 for a 20% profit over the next technical breakdown. Later he'll buy back higher again. A couple of years from now CIMT will be a $15 - $20 stock and the best case scenario is he got $3 or $4 out of its long term ascending move. He still feels good, because after all, he profited from the stock's rise. And he got himself some entertainment along the way playing other "fast moving stocks". What he did not make was a 5 or 6 fold long term profit, so necessary to achieve the superior long term performance he dreams of. End of the story.
Well, that was just a story, let's put our feet back on the floor and think a bit about CIMT. The company earned 7 cents EPS in Q4 2006. If it earns the same amount of profit over the four quarters of 2007, it will have EPS of $0.28. Now apply to that EPS the technical systems software industry average earnings multiple (//http://) of 34.33 and get a $9.61 stock by the close of 2007, no growth needed.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Kudos for those of you who held CIMT!
Looks like a major stampede is coming.
Up to $3.94 in after hours:
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=frameset&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=CIMT&symbol=BBND&symbol=BBD&symbol=ZANE&symbol=TSTF&symbol=MSI&symbol=NVTL&symbol=GIGM&symbol=SILC&symbol=ALDN&symbol=AMKR&symbol=TSL&symbol=JASO&symbol=LHCG&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=after&pathname=&page=afterhours&selected=CIMT
Quote from: wxmang on April 30, 2007, 06:49:50 PM
Kudos for those of you who held CIMT!
Looks like a major stampede is coming.
Up to $3.94 in after hours:
only 300 share traded after hours hardly a stampede yet. although this stock has shown that it can move up quickly so tomorow might be interesting.
to david,
applause to you with your long term motivation . it is tough to be a holder long term of a stock if you have to be here everyday to talk about it. especially if you plan to hold for months to years.
i personally , have not yet flipped over to the long term camp as yet . still building my small account and doing well this year ( up over 40% this year) with not so much technical work but work on my mental toughness
and my attitude towards myself and money . the thing that will beat you in the market is not the sharks and market makers but your own mind. it takes a determination to trade and to keep trading after failing and to keep learning ( while making the same mistakes)
i am now glad to say that i have been trading almost 2 years and i am still alive , hahaha. and enjoy it even more than ever.
back on cimt , this one i am holding long and strong . 355 entry. i will keep the faith on this one ;D
maxi
p.s. on a technical note i like to flip the fib and buy on the first green candle after the bottom , crossing the 23% fib
learnt this from therumpledone who has been around here a couple of times
Quoteto david,
applause to you with your long term motivation . it is tough to be a holder long term of a stock if you have to be here everyday to talk about it. especially if you plan to hold for months to years.
Yep, it's a tough job, but I love it :). Thanks for your support rickjust.
Quotei personally , have not yet flipped over to the long term camp as yet . still building my small account and doing well this year ( up over 40% this year) with not so much technical work but work on my mental toughness
and my attitude towards myself and money . the thing that will beat you in the market is not the sharks and market makers but your own mind. it takes a determination to trade and to keep trading after failing and to keep learning ( while making the same mistakes)
i am now glad to say that i have been trading almost 2 years and i am still alive , hahaha. and enjoy it even more than ever.
Nice to know you're doing well rickjust :) The Disciplined Trader seems to be the right book for you. But, I mean, how small is your account? $5,000? If you make 30% a year in 30 years (I know you're young) you'll have $13.1 M, a nice retirement. If you add, say, $250 a month to this, results would increase a lot.
Quoteback on cimt , this one i am holding long and strong . 355 entry. i will keep the faith on this one ;D
maxi
Great, I believe CIMT will help you increase your overall return, you hold on to this one :)
Going back to CIMT, we had an healthy small correction after yesterday's strong bounce. I have nothing to change to my long term outlook for this stock (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). I'll keep holding CIMT.
hi david ,
thanks for the recommendation on the book . i will get it. my account is around the 10,000 mark. (( i started with $3,000 2 years ago, lost most got it back lost it again got it back ;D) i tend to take it out and spend it occasionally . ( like trips to australia) i feel like i have turned a corner in my trading , i don't expect to gain on every trade but i expect my account to grow
i just bought " the zurich axioms" which is so far the best book on specualtion i have ever seen.
it was reccommended to me by a extremely wealthy friend .
written by a swiss it outlines the 12 axioms a bunch of wealthy swiss have used to gain their wealth. i will outline them in the members area. ( diversification is not one of them !) although i respect your position and have no doubt that you will continue to beat the market.
go cimt!
maxi
Nice Post rickjust!
I actually was checking into "the zurich axioms" and it looks as if number one is my problem ;)
I am always worried. I hate it! From business to life. I am a big worry wart! Hee Hee
And I just love this part of the axiom: "The Pareto Principle" - So True!!!
Here are some quotes from the book in relation to risk.
1. "Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough". How often are you told only to risk what you can afford to lose in investing - when you know you should risk more? You then see the gains you could have made - but you never acted upon the trade.
2. "Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring any significant gains either". If you don't risk much, you won't gain much. If however you play for meangiful stakes, you have an opportunity to get rich quick - if you don't, you never will.
3. "Resist the allure of diversification" - Diversification is the buzz word in the modern investment community - but all it does is dilute your potential profit.
The Zurich Axioms encourage you NOT to diversify for small gains, but to look for the big potential winners and hit them hard. An easy way to explain this is the pareto principle - the Pareto principle is commonly known as the 80/20 rule.
The rule states that 80% of your results come from 20% of your activities - and this is true in many areas of life, including investing.
It means, by concentrating on the best investments, and ignoring the others, you can easily quadruple your results - by searching and acting on the 20% that yield the really big profits.
By only focusing on this 20%, you will see better gains, and you will create a new Pareto principle, refined from the old one, but at a new higher level."
Link:
http://ezinearticles.com/?Get-Rich-Quick-with-the-Zurich-Axioms&id=185301
Quotei just bought " the zurich axioms" which is so far the best book on specualtion i have ever seen.
it was reccommended to me by a extremely wealthy friend .
written by a swiss it outlines the 12 axioms a bunch of wealthy swiss have used to gain their wealth. i will outline them in the members area. ( diversification is not one of them !) although i respect your position and have no doubt that you will continue to beat the market.
I read your post rickjust, thanks. If you had shown those axioms to me a year ago I would agree completely. But now I'm in disagreement with most of them.
But I tend to agree with wxmang's post:
Quote2. "Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring any significant gains either". If you don't risk much, you won't gain much. If however you play for meangiful stakes, you have an opportunity to get rich quick - if you don't, you never will.
3. "Resist the allure of diversification" - Diversification is the buzz word in the modern investment community - but all it does is dilute your potential profit.
The Zurich Axioms encourage you NOT to diversify for small gains, but to look for the big potential winners and hit them hard. An easy way to explain this is the pareto principle - the Pareto principle is commonly known as the 80/20 rule.
The rule states that 80% of your results come from 20% of your activities - and this is true in many areas of life, including investing.
It means, by concentrating on the best investments, and ignoring the others, you can easily quadruple your results - by searching and acting on the 20% that yield the really big profits.
By only focusing on this 20%, you will see better gains, and you will create a new Pareto principle, refined from the old one, but at a new higher level."
Maybe I should own just 5 stocks, instead of 15, to be full invested. But I guess my hands would be weaker then, since risk would increase considerably. I guess 15 different stocks is concentrated enough, most mutual fund managers own more than 100 stocks.
Going back to CIMT, it seems we're not out of the woods yet, over the short term. Did I tell you there will be days when volume will be zero? That doesn't mean anything for the long term outcome of this investment. The company's value has nothing to do with the times its shares change hands.
Q1 results will probably be out around May 15. Actually I see now there's some seasonality, and Q1 revenue was always lower than the previous Q4 revenue in the past. But what matters most is net income and EPS.
CIMT's results have been quite erratic in the past, but Q4 2006 was the best ever in net income terms. That's why I believe the Chairman of the Board words:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron Said, "after several years of re-organization, cost cutting and extensive product development,
we believe the Company is now on the right track for sustained growth and profitability, and that Cimatron's current competitive advantages enable us to reinforce our worldwide market positioning, both in emerging and traditional markets."»
I'll keep holding CIMT.
I like the idea David of being fully invested in 5 stocks... but I dont know if that would be inline with your investing strategy. 20% in each stock wouldnt be that much of a hit to the porfolio if that stock dropped lets say like 20% unexpected and needed to be closed. That would only take a 4% hit to the portfolio but the way the portfolio has been acting on down days 2-3% down are not uncommon. The upside potential would be much greater espically with great picks. Going more of a swing trade approach for max gains 1 week to 6 months holds.
Quote from: nullzero on May 02, 2007, 06:12:36 PM
I like the idea David of being fully invested in 5 stocks... but I dont know if that would be inline with your investing strategy. 20% in each stock wouldnt be that much of a hit to the porfolio if that stock dropped lets say like 20% unexpected and needed to be closed. That would only take a 4% hit to the portfolio but the way the portfolio has been acting on down days 2-3% down are not uncommon. The upside potential would be much greater espically with great picks. Going more of a swing trade approach for max gains 1 week to 6 months holds.
I could agree with everything you say nullzero, except the last part:
QuoteGoing more of a swing trade approach for max gains 1 week to 6 months holds.
I dislike the "swing trade" idea. I don't think it can give a man money over the long term, and I can explain it quite simply: there's no economic or scientific way to predict "swing movements".
Why should a fundamentally attractive stock have a correction now, why not 20%, 50% or 100% above? And when it starts falling, where will it stop? At the ascending trendline? At the 50 days moving average? At the 200 days moving average? At the 50% fibonacci retracement level? When the MACD comes out of an oversold territory? And what if it bounces a bit from one of those support levels, but then falls back and break the support? And what if after that it rallies again above support? And what if after all the stock isn't attractive? Is it bearish, is it bullish? Ok, it is bearish, but also oversold, so there can be a bounce, right? Or, this stock seems attractive, but it rose so much, let me wait for a pullback. Damn, it rose another 30%. Ok, finally a 10% pullback, let me buy now. Ooops, going down another 20%, what now?
I could be here all day and night describing situations that clearly show that you're trading based on instincts and luck when you're "swing trading". Sure, you can have some winning streaks (no doubt about it), but 10 years after you're basically at the same level or worse than when you started, because the game is skewed due to transaction costs and slippage.
Expecting CIMT to sustain profitability and achieve a 20% revenue growth rate is speculating/investing. Buying today to sell 10 or 15% higher is gambling, because to be coherent, you need to sell if the next 10 or 15% move is lower. I'm not going to sell if the stock rises 15% or if it falls 15%, because that doesn't give me any clue to the future, say, 6 months from now for this stock.
To hold a stock for a big, long term move I need to focus on predicting variables that make a stock rise 500% or more. No technical indicator does that, they're always changing. My 4 estimates tell me CIMT will be a $27 stock three years from now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). I know there's no way I can beat this type of return jumping around other stocks. I just need to sit tight and let the future become the present, for as long as I believe the future will be what I'm forecasting.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
I can see where you are coming from with the swing trading its not for everyone and you can miss out on potential gains, the longer you hold the more potenial you have to make up a loss or catch the full move of a stock... However I think the filtering of stocks and money management rules could be tweaked to maxmize risk/reward for the plays... For instance you picked several stocks that got around 100% gains like SYX, and others that got close to 30% losses. We should only be buying the best of the best stocks with the highest chance of reward for the porfolio. Stocks like TZOO, CECE, etc shouldnt be picked in the porfolio when there is great stocks like... SILC, ALDN, GIGM, CIMT, etc out there. Filtering the picks more vigerously would definately increase odds we get a lot of winners. Also having the members add input or point out things weither they are negative or positive would also keep are eyes and ears open for more detailed analysis for the picks (maybe reaching out more to the members asking their input or feelings on a stock with the use of polls or questions more often.)
Another idea is when a fundamental milestone or target is reached you could sell 1/3, 1/2, or 1/4 of the position (to cut down on risk for the porfolio and lock in gains). I think that would help a lot if every pick had a more detailed exit plan and a backup plan for certain possible scenerios that arised as well. I know the the main porfolio can get incredible gains we just need to unlock the potential and increase the risk. The last 2 months we would of made better gains sticking the whole porfolio in a double leverage ETF that tracks the DOW.
Anyway to sum it up and stop my rambling... David your doing a great job but I know you can do even better. I believe keeping track of 15 stocks is keeping you occupied from finding and focusing on the real winning stocks. For those considern on risk... You need to risk more to gain more and being a long term porfolio is already reducing the risk a great deal. 5 stocks is not going to put to much risk especially if the stocks are diversified from one another. From the looking a previous stocks in the porfolio it seems it always had at least 2 big losers out of the held stocks in the porfolio each losing about 15-30% or so... Considering those picks would of been most likely have been avoided if we were more strict on the filtering of stocks and only picked the cream of the crop. I believe just from that fact alone we would be losing potenial risk.
THEstreet.com rating for CIMT
Quote from: nullzero on May 03, 2007, 08:52:54 PM
I can see where you are coming from with the swing trading its not for everyone and you can miss out on potential gains, the longer you hold the more potenial you have to make up a loss or catch the full move of a stock... However I think the filtering of stocks and money management rules could be tweaked to maxmize risk/reward for the plays... For instance you picked several stocks that got around 100% gains like SYX, and others that got close to 30% losses. We should only be buying the best of the best stocks with the highest chance of reward for the porfolio. Stocks like TZOO, CECE, etc shouldnt be picked in the porfolio when there is great stocks like... SILC, ALDN, GIGM, CIMT, etc out there. Filtering the picks more vigerously would definately increase odds we get a lot of winners. Also having the members add input or point out things weither they are negative or positive would also keep are eyes and ears open for more detailed analysis for the picks (maybe reaching out more to the members asking their input or feelings on a stock with the use of polls or questions more often.)
Another idea is when a fundamental milestone or target is reached you could sell 1/3, 1/2, or 1/4 of the position (to cut down on risk for the porfolio and lock in gains). I think that would help a lot if every pick had a more detailed exit plan and a backup plan for certain possible scenerios that arised as well. I know the the main porfolio can get incredible gains we just need to unlock the potential and increase the risk. The last 2 months we would of made better gains sticking the whole porfolio in a double leverage ETF that tracks the DOW.
nullzero
I agree with you. Everyone has there own style, but I believe it can be improved.
1. Lock in shorts term gains sell 1/2 and find another stock to invest.
I suggest 70% stock picks 30% ets or cefs.
better sector selections energy and material sector was ignored the past 3 months when they had big runs.
I been do very well picking your 3-4 best picks and adding them to my asian, europe, reits and util cef's and making a very nice portfolio. Util and reits are up 30% ytd.
that was quite a stimulating debate guys, :)
I am a novice just started last year with 10k but had been looking at SHRP so I felt I knew what I was getting into so I got it and made 60%. Boy I got so exited then started to listen to Jim Cramer right when he suggested CNXT at the top. having made "mad money" I jumped in and lost all my mad money trying to dollar cost average as it was going down.
Nullzero, that left me with a pretty strong fear for those types of trade. so now I am trying this longer term approach and with the portfolio having gone down lately its making my stomack a little quizy.
David may the force be with you man, because if you do well so will I.
good trading guys.
Thanks for that jos. Applaud.
As I look to my valuation model for CIMT, everything seems reasonable, but of course, there's no absolute certainty that the future will be like I'm expecting.
1) I'm expecting zero dilution going forward. This is because in the 10 years this company has been publicly traded, it didn't increase the share count, as you can check here (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann).
2) Revenue CAGR of 20%. This doesn't look aggressive, but I must say that there wasn't any revenue growth over the years, in fact, 2000 revenue was $25 M and 2006 revenue was $21.5 M. My more optimistic expectation for the future derives from the company increasing its commercial and marketing efforts, as you can read on recent news (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cimt). It also comes from the chairman of the board words:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron Said, "after several years of re-organization, cost cutting and extensive product development, we believe the Company is now on the right track for sustained growth and profitability, and that Cimatron's current competitive advantages enable us to reinforce our worldwide market positioning, both in emerging and traditional markets."»
Also, the company released new software products lately that seem to be doing well:
• Cimatron's New Automated Drill Reduces Programming Time by up to 80% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070226/ukm017.html?.v=71)
PR Newswire (Mon, Feb 26)
• Cimatron's New Version 8 Receives High Praises From Customers and Analysts (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070305/ukm041.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Mon, Mar 5)
• Cimatron to Showcase New Die Design Application at BlechExpo, the Premier International Fair for Sheet Metal Processing (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070430/ukm004.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Mon, Apr 30)
Given all this I expect 20% compound annual revenue growth going forward. It can be more, but it can also be less, revenue may even decline, there's no historical pattern of revenue growth.
3) Final net profit margin of 15%
The net profit margin in Q4 2006 was 9.24%. Since CIMT is a technical software company, I expect its net profit margin to expand as sales rise, but there's no assurance that will happen. It is just my expectation.
4) EPS multiple estimate of 34.12
This is the Technical & System Software industry average earnings multiple (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT). There's no assurance that CIMT will ever trade at the industry average valuation, or that the industry average valuation wont decline.
Given these 4 estimates, my valuation model tells me CIMT will be at $24.27 three years from now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main), and given that information the optimal selling price today is $15.55 (this is the price at which returns would start being less than 16%, given these estimates).
My current strategy tells me to continue holding CIMT through all the ups and downs and sell only at the optimal selling price given by my valuation model.
Now, I'm free to:
- Change estimates when incoming information points to a different reality or future;
- Change the strategy whenever I feel it is appropriate or better for long term returns of the Main Portfolio.
I thought I didn't have to make these warnings, but from posts on another thread (SILC) it looks like people don't understand the risks of forecasting or the difficulty of getting all the needed information in a short period of time (if I knew everything at once, why would I be doing daily updates on my holdings? And if I tried to know all at once, you would have to wait months for a new pick and there wouldn't be any analysis from then on. Moreover, company's fundamentals change, it's a dynamic, not static, environment).
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Following is a link for various CAM/CNC products/Cos. [Just googled for CAD/CAM]
http://www.tenlinks.com/cam/products.htm
In some earlier post CIMT was compared to Autodesk [ADSK] but I think they are in completely different market and products. I am a user of Autodesk and Bentley products at work and knows the superior edge that Autodesk has. For present other software companies do not pose any challenge to Autodesk CAD software. I dont know how big the CAM and CNC software segment is but any company grabbing market share like Autodesk should do very well once it has a wide user base like Autodesk has.
I dont have a position in CIMT.
QuoteI dont have a position in CIMT.
But you should have stocky, you should. Any fundamental reason for not owning CIMT? Thanks :)
On a short term note, today's early morning volume suggests a strong rally may unfold, but it doesn't really matter for the long term outcome of this investment.
Of course, one can't compare ADSK and CIMT, ADSK is a $9.7 B market cap, CIMT is a tiny $27 M market cap. But they're in the same Technical & System software industry.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 09:53:48 AM
On a short term note, today's early morning volume suggests a strong rally may unfold, but it doesn't really matter for the long term outcome of this investment.
looks like you might be right, there were 25.000 shares on the bid at $3.50! :)
Quote from: Se7en on May 07, 2007, 10:14:31 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 09:53:48 AM
On a short term note, today's early morning volume suggests a strong rally may unfold, but it doesn't really matter for the long term outcome of this investment.
looks like you might be right, there were 25.000 shares on the bid at $3.50! :)
Up 6.5%. Sometimes one has to jump start things ;D
Anyway, like I said, it doesn't mean anything for the long term outcome of this trade, but the stock was just too cheap, and if stocky, which usually is a strong hand, sold his shares, I was afraid that many people here were letting go of CIMT, which I believe is such an extraordinary investment.
It took just a little bit of wind on its sails ... good luck :)
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 10:22:32 AM
It took just a little bit of wind on its sails ... good luck :)
Yep, I bought into the rally (my NVTL $). Let's hope it continues.
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 07, 2007, 10:45:26 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 10:22:32 AM
It took just a little bit of wind on its sails ... good luck :)
Yep, I bought into the rally (my NVTL $). Let's hope it continues.
Good move buddjas1 :) (but NVTL was good too, but of course, not the same possibility of a big gain over a "not so long" period of time).
I hope stocky got himself some shares too, he deserves them. Anyway, more opportunities will appear, in this or other stocks.
nice prediction David :). I think that a run up before earnings is likely and I really hope that Q1 report will confirm that they turned into profitable company!
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 09:53:48 AM
QuoteI dont have a position in CIMT.
But you should have stocky, you should. Any fundamental reason for not owning CIMT? Thanks :)
On a short term note, today's early morning volume suggests a strong rally may unfold, but it doesn't really matter for the long term outcome of this investment.
Of course, one can't compare ADSK and CIMT, ADSK is a $9.7 B market cap, CIMT is a tiny $27 M market cap. But they're in the same Technical & System software industry.
David,
WOW! Talk about timing! How did you predict the move? What signal gave you the impression a rally was about to take place?
BTW- You are doing a great job! ;D
QuoteDavid,
WOW! Talk about timing! How did you predict the move? What signal gave you the impression a rally was about to take place?
BTW- You are doing a great job! ;D
Thanks mbaugh, the stock was trading at a critical technical point this morning as you can see on the chart below and volume was above average for that time of the day, so I put some shares on the bid and actually bought a few and the stock moved to the upside (buddjas1 helped too). But don't think I can predict short term moves because of this, I can't.
It would be nice if CIMT could close above $3.86 with volume of more than 140 K shares, that would probably set the stock on fire. Anyway, longer term only fundamentals matter, and I believe they are, or they're about to be, very attractive.
Got to go now, good luck :)
CIMT starting to move big time :)
A higher traded volume made the marvellous jump.
The following chart shows that David is right about the need of 140000
shares to continue the rally. March 12th volume changed the trend
Hope this volume continues it's strength enabling good profits to holders.
Best luck to all and applauds to David's pick.
PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
4-May-07 3.50 3.50 3.33 3.45 35,500 3.45
3-May-07 3.60 3.60 3.43 3.50 26,600 3.50
2-May-07 3.54 3.56 3.45 3.50 29,900 3.50
1-May-07 3.78 3.86 3.57 3.58 56,700 3.58
30-Apr-07 3.30 3.79 3.26 3.79 139,500 3.79
27-Apr-07 3.50 3.52 3.25 3.35 84,100 3.35
26-Apr-07 3.52 3.70 3.50 3.52 48,300 3.52
25-Apr-07 3.65 3.66 3.50 3.64 27,800 3.64
24-Apr-07 3.59 3.76 3.50 3.61 51,400 3.61
23-Apr-07 3.76 3.91 3.52 3.59 57,400 3.59
20-Apr-07 3.68 3.76 3.62 3.69 59,200 3.69
19-Apr-07 3.78 3.98 3.66 3.66 57,500 3.66
18-Apr-07 3.61 4.10 3.55 3.82 133,000 3.82
17-Apr-07 4.20 4.20 3.56 3.80 208,400 3.80
16-Apr-07 4.60 4.73 4.08 4.14 175,000 4.14
13-Apr-07 4.52 4.58 4.43 4.58 38,100 4.58
12-Apr-07 4.30 4.58 4.28 4.41 67,500 4.41
11-Apr-07 4.30 4.48 4.20 4.34 57,500 4.34
10-Apr-07 4.60 4.60 4.21 4.30 118,200 4.30
9-Apr-07 4.01 4.59 3.96 4.46 239,900 4.46
5-Apr-07 4.15 4.18 3.85 4.04 98,400 4.04
4-Apr-07 4.06 4.20 3.78 4.07 262,600 4.07
3-Apr-07 3.31 4.11 3.22 4.09 687,900 4.09
2-Apr-07 3.21 3.30 3.06 3.22 44,100 3.22
30-Mar-07 3.10 3.22 3.00 3.10 31,900 3.10
29-Mar-07 3.25 3.33 3.06 3.09 63,900 3.09
28-Mar-07 3.26 3.40 3.05 3.19 183,600 3.19
27-Mar-07 2.57 3.54 2.56 3.30 715,500 3.30
26-Mar-07 2.68 2.69 2.60 2.62 31,700 2.62
23-Mar-07 2.63 2.67 2.60 2.64 32,500 2.64
22-Mar-07 2.79 2.85 2.66 2.68 58,500 2.68
21-Mar-07 2.72 2.85 2.61 2.75 78,200 2.75
20-Mar-07 2.50 2.94 2.50 2.75 151,300 2.75
19-Mar-07 2.52 2.52 2.38 2.50 103,100 2.50
16-Mar-07 2.90 2.90 2.43 2.53 207,600 2.53
15-Mar-07 2.80 2.95 2.80 2.90 85,800 2.90
14-Mar-07 2.95 3.05 2.80 2.89 128,800 2.89
13-Mar-07 2.90 3.05 2.72 2.91 381,500 2.91
12-Mar-07 2.10 3.44 1.88 3.04 1,416,600 3.04
9-Mar-07 1.40 1.42 1.40 1.40 1,400 1.40
8-Mar-07 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.36 1,400 1.36
7-Mar-07 1.39 1.39 1.37 1.38 2,500 1.38
6-Mar-07 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.39 4,800 1.39
5-Mar-07 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 0 1.39
2-Mar-07 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 900 1.39
1-Mar-07 1.38 1.40 1.38 1.40 18,200 1.40
28-Feb-07 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 200 1.40
27-Feb-07 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 3,100 1.40
26-Feb-07 1.42 1.43 1.42 1.43 1,000 1.43
23-Feb-07 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0 1.43
22-Feb-07 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0 1.43
21-Feb-07 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0 1.43
20-Feb-07 1.40 1.43 1.39 1.43 1,000 1.43
16-Feb-07 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1,000 1.40
15-Feb-07 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 0 1.40
14-Feb-07 1.42 1.42 1.37 1.40 2,400 1.40
13-Feb-07 1.42 1.47 1.37 1.41 8,300 1.41
12-Feb-07 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 0 1.36
9-Feb-07 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 100 1.36
8-Feb-07 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 0 1.40
7-Feb-07 1.38 1.40 1.38 1.40 2,800 1.40
6-Feb-07 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0 1.43
5-Feb-07 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 1,000 1.43
2-Feb-07 1.38 1.40 1.35 1.40 8,800 1.40
1-Feb-07 1.41 1.41 1.38 1.38 200 1.38
31-Jan-07 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 0 1.38
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 11:16:56 AM
It would be nice if CIMT could close above $3.86 with volume of more than 140 K shares, that would probably set the stock on fire. Anyway, longer term only fundamentals matter, and I believe they are, or they're about to be, very attractive.
Well, we have the volume; let's see if we cannot finish strong and close above 3.86.
there was a trade at $3.77 but my trading station still shows $3.86 as the last price.. Looks like market makers want to make 3SOF happy ;D
As buddjas1 said, we got the volume, at 169,600 shares, but we failed on price by just 2 cents, since the close was $3.84 and we needed more than $3.86 for the rally to be "technically perfect".
Anyway, I must say all these thoughts and analysis are more for entertaining purposes than to make money, because 2 cents above or below any given number are meaningless in the bigger scheme of things, the only one that should matter.
I'm just a bit afraid that Q1 numbers might disappoint some people, because historically that has been a seasonally weak quarter, but I'm not sure, because the press releases we've been getting out of the company paint an optimistic view of the present and future. I sure hope Q1 is strong enough to make the stock rally above recent highs of $4.73, but a bit weaker than expected quarter due to seasonal factors won't affect my long term bullish outlook for this stock, which by the way I consider the most attractive holding of the Main Portfolio (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), with an estimated share price CAGR of 84.89% and an optimal selling price of $15.55 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main).
You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8. And that would be achieved with just $783,500 net income on $5 M - $7 M revenue.
Talk about small cap power. I'll keep holding CIMT.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 05:24:22 PM
You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8.
btw: David, have you had a chance to look at AOB? They just reported $0.1 EPS and to my surprise the stock climbs in AH trading, currently around $10.8.. Do you think it's trading at its fair value?
Quote from: raspi on May 07, 2007, 05:30:57 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on May 07, 2007, 05:24:22 PM
You pay attention to CIMT, because this stock can fly 100% in one single day without prior notice (like it did on March 12). If we get EPS of around 10 cents in Q1 I don't see it stopping below $8.
btw: David, have you had a chance to look at AOB? They just reported $0.1 EPS and to my surprise the stock climbs in AH trading, currently around $10.8.. Do you think it's trading at its fair value?
I believe the market is excited about the Q2 guidance, not the Q1 results:
«Fiscal 2007 Financial Update
For the second quarter of fiscal 2007, the Company anticipates revenue of approximately $33.0 million, a 45% increase compared to second quarter 2006 revenues of $22.8 million, with the majority of this revenue growth coming from products that serve the OTC market, primarily the Jinji product portfolio. The Company anticipates diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.14, based on a diluted share count of approximately 66.6 million shares outstanding.»
I don't have time for a full analysis now, maybe tomorrow, thanks for the suggestion.
thanks David, I did not want to bother you and I am sorry for bringing it up on CIMT board. I like AOB but I think its actually a little bit overvaluated at this stage...
I made a pathethic trade with AOB..bought at $4.8 and sold at $5.3 only to watch it climb to $12 :). With CIMT and XING I decided to be much more patient!
CIMT looking good.
Will more volume come in soon?
Anyone here plan on holding CIMT through earnings? I am considering it becuase I think there is a real chance of a profitable first quarter, but I want to see other people's thoughts.
With the rollout of the new software and the strong push into China I as well am betting that Q1 will be profitable and we'll get good guidance so I plan to hold through earnings.
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 08, 2007, 11:02:01 AM
Anyone here plan on holding CIMT through earnings? I am considering it becuase I think there is a real chance of a profitable first quarter, but I want to see other people's thoughts.
YES me :)
this move we had yestreday and today made me feel better with it ...
looking for another 100% jump soon .. ;)
I am also holding. I believe the company wants to prove that its restructuring and global expanision is paying off after years of hard work and cost cutting. Its time for the rewards!
Mbaugh
Like David, I plan on holding onto this one until it hits the optimal selling price >:D
Lets hope we see new 52wk highs on CIMT very soon :).
I'm not sure if you can perceive it from the graph below, but Q1 revenue has always been lower than Q4:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=36622;image)
This is why I've been writing about Q1 being a seasonally weak quarter. I'm not sure why, since this is a software company, but it is an historical fact.
What the quarterly revenue graph above also tells us is that high and stable revenue numbers never were CIMT's problem (high for a $32 M market cap company). The problem has always been profitability. As we've seen previously on this thread, the company went through an intense cost cutting effort, and Q4 2006 was the most profitable ever, with net income of $577,000 and EPS of $0.07. And a continuation of this is our hope for Q1, not so much revenue growth (due to seasonality), but another profitable quarter. As I said yesterday, just a $0.10 EPS number for the quarter and probably CIMT will almost instantly trade at $8, and it would still be cheap at those levels (the speed of this stock doesn't allow you to take profits and jump back in if the news is positive - you would have to pay a much higher price due to a huge gap up at the open). But if we get just $0.05 it isn't a case to panic either, I'll keep holding CIMT if that happens.
According to my news service, CIMT only started issuing press releases (other than the obligatory SEC files) in Q1 2007, even though it has been a publicly traded company since 1996. And those were quite optimistic and promising press releases. This company has the same # of shares issued and outstanding since its IPO (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) and the balance sheet is healthy (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=Balance&stmtView=Qtr), so I don't expect the current press release campaign to be a way of attracting investor's money for dilution due to short term capital needs. I would be very disappointed if that were the case.
I believe the company has been issuing these optimistic press releases because it wants the world to notice its fundamental turnaround to profitability. Therefore I expect Q1 2007 to be profitable, even if not terribly so (because of seasonality) and I'll hold CIMT through earnings.
hi,
when is earnings?
max
Quote from: rickjust on May 08, 2007, 05:58:51 PM
hi,
when is earnings?
max
Hi rickjust, probably May 16.
hi,
thanks ,
i have never had any luck holding through earnngs . may steal myself for this one though.
max
Minor Axiom I
Always play for meaningful stakes.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 08, 2007, 05:41:03 PM
The problem has always been profitability. As we've seen previously on this thread, the company went through an intense cost cutting effort, and Q4 2006 was the most profitable ever, with net income of $577,000 and EPS of $0.07. And a continuation of this is our hope for Q1, not so much revenue growth (due to seasonality), but another profitable quarter. As I said yesterday, just a $0.10 EPS number for the quarter and probably CIMT will almost instantly trade at $8, and it would still be cheap at those levels (the speed of this stock doesn't allow you to take profits and jump back in if the news is positive - you would have to pay a much higher price due to a huge gap up at the open). But if we get just $0.05 it isn't a case to panic either, I'll keep holding CIMT if that happens.
I do not see how you can justify $0.10 for Q1 EPS when Q4 EPS was only $0.07 and you know that Q1 revenue will be less than Q4. The cost-cutting has already taken place and the new product (Cimatron8) was not released until late in the quarter. I think I will have to sell before earnings if CIMT stays above $4.00, knowing that Q1 EPS will be in the 4-6 cent range.
For an EPS of 0.10, CIMT will need a net income of $783,500 (based on 7,835,000 shares). That would require approximately a revenue of 6,300,000.
Rev ($,000s) Income ($,000s)
Q406 6,028 557
Q306 5,014 (403)
Q206 5,044 18
Q106 5,374 220
Q405 5,425 514
Q305 4,896 (562)
Q205 5,033 (1,293)
Q105 5,572 (981)
Q404 6,403 (249)
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 08, 2007, 08:26:20 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on May 08, 2007, 05:41:03 PM
The problem has always been profitability. As we've seen previously on this thread, the company went through an intense cost cutting effort, and Q4 2006 was the most profitable ever, with net income of $577,000 and EPS of $0.07. And a continuation of this is our hope for Q1, not so much revenue growth (due to seasonality), but another profitable quarter. As I said yesterday, just a $0.10 EPS number for the quarter and probably CIMT will almost instantly trade at $8, and it would still be cheap at those levels (the speed of this stock doesn't allow you to take profits and jump back in if the news is positive - you would have to pay a much higher price due to a huge gap up at the open). But if we get just $0.05 it isn't a case to panic either, I'll keep holding CIMT if that happens.
I do not see how you can justify $0.10 for Q1 EPS when Q4 EPS was only $0.07 and you know that Q1 revenue will be less than Q4. The cost-cutting has already taken place and the new product (Cimatron8) was not released until late in the quarter. I think I will have to sell before earnings if CIMT stays above $4.00, knowing that Q1 EPS will be in the 4-6 cent range.
For an EPS of 0.10, CIMT will need a net income of $783,500 (based on 7,835,000 shares). That would require approximately a revenue of 6,300,000.
Rev ($,000s) Income ($,000s)
Q406 6,028 557
Q306 5,014 (403)
Q206 5,044 18
Q106 5,374 220
Q405 5,425 514
Q305 4,896 (562)
Q205 5,033 (1,293)
Q105 5,572 (981)
Q404 6,403 (249)
I understand your concerns about holding thru earnings, but I believe this time is very different since if you follow the timeline of press releases the company issued starting in 2005 and leading up to the most recent one, you can clearly see the improving pattern. For starters, the company completed the reorganization in Q4 of 2005 resulting in a loss of .22 per share. Begining in 2006, the company began moving on the fast track to profitablity. The company was profitable in each quarter of 2006 except for Q3 since they acquired the remaining 70% of the Korean distributor in which they previously owned 30% of. Now that they own 100% of this large Korean distributor as well as expanded their Asian market salesforce, they remained on track to achieving future profits which they showed on Q4 of 2006. If they had not acquired the 70% interest, they would have turned a profit resulting in 4 consective profitable quarters in a row. The only added expense I see happening in Q1 of 2007, are the costs of opening the two new offices in China, but I'm sure the previous expansion efforts elsewhere probably offset this cost thus maybe allowing a surprise Q1 2007 results. Here's a link to the company's website, check it out and read the press releases.
http://www.cimatron.com/pressreleases.aspx?FolderID=68&lang=en
Good Luck
Mbaugh
Quote from: mbaugh on May 08, 2007, 10:54:02 PM
I understand your concerns about holding thru earnings, but I believe this time is very different since if you follow the timeline of press releases the company issued starting in 2005 and leading up to the most recent one, you can clearly see the improving pattern. For starters, the company completed the reorganization in Q4 of 2005 resulting in a loss of .22 per share. Begining in 2006, the company began moving on the fast track to profitablity. The company was profitable in each quarter of 2006 except for Q3 since they acquired the remaining 70% of the Korean distributor in which they previously owned 30% of. Now that they own 100% of this large Korean distributor as well as expanded their Asian market salesforce, they remained on track to achieving future profits which they showed on Q4 of 2006. If they had not acquired the 70% interest, they would have turned a profit resulting in 4 consective profitable quarters in a row. The only added expense I see happening in Q1 of 2007, are the costs of opening the two new offices in China, but I'm sure the previous expansion efforts elsewhere probably offset this cost thus maybe allowing a surprise Q1 2007 results.
I am not sure I understand your point. Do you believe that CIMT will post $.10 for the quarter? If so, why? Is that what you mean by "surprise Q1 2007 results." Or, do you simply believe that CIMT will be profitable? If so, will a small profit be enough to support the price of the stock.
Maybe not .10, but I believe they will post a profit and it will surpass that of Q12006 profit and yes I believe this will make the stock move higher. The fact that they are improving their margins could reveal a surprise quarter.
i don't know about u guys...but b/c of CIMT...i'm now able to stomach +/- 8% per minute in any given stock.... :P
Thanks for the stimulating debate on CIMT, buddjas1 and mbaugh (applaud).
It's very hard to know who's right for Q1 2007. I would say an EPS below $0.05 will be interpreted as negative by the market, and above $0.05 as positive. On the extremes, a negative EPS number will probably take the stock immediately down 20%-40%. And an EPS of $0.1 or more will probably make it move 100% or more to the upside. So everyone place your bets and roll the dice, right?
Not so fast. Due to the unpredictability of one single quarter, I think we should use trends to make decisions about long term investments, not just one or two data inputs. CIMT may very well have $0 EPS in Q1 2007, $0.10 in Q2, $0.15 in Q3 and $0.20 in Q4. This data series would mean a full year 2007 EPS of $0.45, which multiplied by the 34.38 average earnings multiple of the technical software industry (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=cimt) gives me a price per share of $15.47. So I urge you to think twice about selling, even if Q1 is weaker than expected.
QuoteI do not see how you can justify $0.10 for Q1 EPS when Q4 EPS was only $0.07 and you know that Q1 revenue will be less than Q4. The cost-cutting has already taken place and the new product (Cimatron8) was not released until late in the quarter. I think I will have to sell before earnings if CIMT stays above $4.00, knowing that Q1 EPS will be in the 4-6 cent range.
For an EPS of 0.10, CIMT will need a net income of $783,500 (based on 7,835,000 shares). That would require approximately a revenue of 6,300,000.
Good points buddjas1. But I don't think CIMT needs revenue of $6.3 M to achieve $783,500 in net income, net profit margin can expand. Both SG&A costs and R&D costs have been trending down as a percentage of sales. But since Cimatron8 was concluded just in March or there about, probably it is wrong to expect a big drop in R&D, or a big surge in sales in Q1. But what about Q2 2007? That will probably be very strong.
My valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main) applied to CIMT is conservative in my view. No dilution expected, because there wasn't any for the past 10 years. Just 20% average annual revenue growth. An expansion of net profit margin from 9.24% in Q4 2006 to 15% in 2009. And an earnings multiple similar to the industry average. If these reasonable long term expectations are achieved, the stock will close 2009 at $24.45, which means a share price compound annual growth rate of 87%.
I'll keep focusing on the longer term trends and will ignore a possible weak Q1 because of seasonal factors. I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 09, 2007, 05:02:28 PM
Good points buddjas1. But I don't think CIMT needs revenue of $6.3 M to achieve $783,500 in net income, net profit margin can expand. Both SG&A costs and R&D costs have been trending down as a percentage of sales. But since Cimatron8 was concluded just in March or there about, probably it is wrong to expect a big drop in R&D, or a big surge in sales in Q1. But what about Q2 2007? That will probably be very strong.
I totally agree. Then why not sell before the 10Q and buy after? I feel that you are "long-term" holding stocks like CIMT just to prove a point and not because it is a good idea. Sometimes you say that you do not buy stocks based on "future events," but that is exactly what you are doing here. You are
hoping for a good quarter not
predicting a good Q1 based on the available data. Don't let this "long term" holding idea ruin your edge. (Don't forget what got you here.)
QuoteThen why not sell before the 10Q and buy after?
Because the benefit of having a positive quarter compensates the risk of having a bad one. Moreover I'm not in the quarter by quarter prediction game, I think that is a loser's game, similar to trying to predict if a stock will be up or down tomorrow. I analyze trends, not individual data points.
QuoteI feel that you are "long-term" holding stocks like CIMT just to prove a point and not because it is a good idea.
I think I've been flexible enough for everybody to see that I don't care about proving points, my objective is achieving the highest return with the lowest risk. I change my mind when I have to, since my ego was lost long ago, fortunately.
QuoteSometimes you say that you do not buy stocks based on "future events," but that is exactly what you are doing here.
I bought the stock two months ago at $2.9, so I'm not buying it today, just holding for the long term due to the expectation of the continuation of a fundamental improvement that started with Q4 2006. If I wait for the fundamental improvement to be all over the news I'll have to buy the stock 200% or more higher.
QuoteYou are hoping for a good quarter not predicting a good Q1 based on the available data.
I don't care about the quarter, just about what the future holds two or three years from now.
QuoteDon't let this "long term" holding idea ruin your edge. (Don't forget what got you here.)
I feel I'm much better now than in the past and that the current strategy can be used for decades to come. I couldn't say the same before.
CIMT is a $30 M market cap global software company that never diluted shareholder's value. Too much of an attractive opportunity to worry about one quarter of data in my view.
But thanks for sharing your thoughts, they're very interesting :)
applaud David. I like the strategy you decided to follow and that you defend so eagerly much more than the daytrading... I feel much better when I do not have to follow every tick and every press release because I invest in fundamentaly sound companies.
I have only been trading for 1 year but even after such a short experience I feel that short term trading is less efficient that long term investments...
Quote from: raspi on May 10, 2007, 10:38:09 AM
applaud David. I like the strategy you decided to follow and that you defend so eagerly much more than the daytrading... I feel much better when I do not have to follow every tick and every press release because I invest in fundamentaly sound companies.
I have only been trading for 1 year but even after such a short experience I feel that short term trading is less efficient that long term investments...
I am not advocating day trading. Rather, I advocate using the data available and making a smart decision. CIMT at $4 is not the same stock it was at $2.60.
well, bounce or break time for CIMT.
I would say that CIMT is not immune to the overall market drop today, I dont expect it to bounce today any more than I do any of the other stocks I have that are down a lot today. Still holding patiently for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ;)
Quote from: tokyopua on May 10, 2007, 03:51:11 PM
Still holding patiently for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ;)
What's your analysis? Why are you optimistic?
Quote from: raspi on May 10, 2007, 10:38:09 AM
applaud David. I like the strategy you decided to follow and that you defend so eagerly much more than the daytrading... I feel much better when I do not have to follow every tick and every press release because I invest in fundamentaly sound companies.
I have only been trading for 1 year but even after such a short experience I feel that short term trading is less efficient that long term investments...
I agree raspi, there's no economic basis to sustain short term trading as a viable business or way to grow one's wealth (except for the brokers, they love it). I'm not saying one can't win a lot on a winning streak, but a losing streak will inevitably follow and years go by and after 20 years the short term trader looks back and sees he made a lot less money that what he ought to (if he lasts that long, which is rare).
QuoteI am not advocating day trading. Rather, I advocate using the data available and making a smart decision. CIMT at $4 is not the same stock it was at $2.60.
I agree, buddjas1 is no day trader. He knows fundamental analysis and reacts accordingly.
But as I look to stocks that made huge bull runs (those that rise several bags), they always had weak periods in between and "weak" quarters. It is impossible to sustain many bags of profits (a bag means a 100% gain from the original entry point) without such periods and fundamental "misses". So, if like buddjas1, you're decided to take profits every time you see a quarter below expectations or a technical breakdown, you're also deciding to give up on holding stocks that rise several bags over the years. You're thinking you can achieve a 30% consistent long term average annual return with that course of action. My take is you won't be able to do that, because you're not basing your investment decisions in sound economic principles. If you had a business, would you sell it because one quarter wasn't perfect?
This is an open and interesting debate and buddjas1 has been one of the best arguing for his case, so let me applaud him again.
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 10, 2007, 03:44:03 PM
well, bounce or break time for CIMT.
CIMT can break or bounce all it wants, it doesn't matter anything for the outcome of this investment. Please check that ANGN chart again, back on this thread.
Quote from: tokyopua on May 10, 2007, 03:51:11 PM
I would say that CIMT is not immune to the overall market drop today, I dont expect it to bounce today any more than I do any of the other stocks I have that are down a lot today. Still holding patiently for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ;)
Yes, CIMT's short term moves mean nothing for what the future holds, and I'm not talking this or next quarter, but 2 or 3 years from now. This company is ready to reward patient investors with a 92% average annual return (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). If you (not you Tokyo, talking in general) think you can beat that with other stocks, go ahead and sell. If you consider no man, alive or dead, has ever achieved a 92% average annual return consistently then you better just keep on holding CIMT. That's what I'll do.
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 10, 2007, 03:55:48 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on May 10, 2007, 03:51:11 PM
Still holding patiently for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ;)
What's your analysis? Why are you optimistic?
Its not my analysis, I trust what I have seen David present to indicate that indeed the stock has great potential as a long term hold. I also trust David's track record (not just the official one but the track record of stocks he held with weak hands and let go of).
Do I think its a sure thing with CIMT? No. Do I think its worth the risk of holding through a downturn? In this case, yes. Have I always done that? No, this would be the first stock that I try that with, assuming a major downturn comes. I saw glowing analysis on CPNE but personally didnt see the model as sustainable so I traded it short term a few times, but I see CIMT as having real potential.
David's ANGN chart in particular has convinced me to try this long term hold strategy. I simply cant be staring at the screen all day to find that one stock you got out of and is running again now 86.235 trading days later. David couldnt either clearly. Maybe others have that kind of bandwidth and focus, but as I only trade stocks part time, I do not. And even if I did, I know my psychology, I probably wouldnt pull the trigger after its big move that alerted me again to its existence anyway.
I applauded David again today for his reply, and also for the fact that I have had more peace of mind recently holding CIMT with strong hands than I did flipping stocks daily. I have had more time for myself and my business, and honestly less stress which is hard for me personally to put a value on.
And if a year from now the stock has gained me a bag or more and I can sell with a long term capital gain, how much sweeter that will be. Time will tell...
Quote from: tokyopua on May 10, 2007, 06:44:34 PM
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 10, 2007, 03:55:48 PM
Quote from: tokyopua on May 10, 2007, 03:51:11 PM
Still holding patiently for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow ;)
What's your analysis? Why are you optimistic?
Its not my analysis, I trust what I have seen David present to indicate that indeed the stock has great potential as a long term hold. I also trust David's track record (not just the official one but the track record of stocks he held with weak hands and let go of).
Do I think its a sure thing with CIMT? No. Do I think its worth the risk of holding through a downturn? In this case, yes. Have I always done that? No, this would be the first stock that I try that with, assuming a major downturn comes. I saw glowing analysis on CPNE but personally didnt see the model as sustainable so I traded it short term a few times, but I see CIMT as having real potential.
David's ANGN chart in particular has convinced me to try this long term hold strategy. I simply cant be staring at the screen all day to find that one stock you got out of and is running again now 86.235 trading days later. David couldnt either clearly. Maybe others have that kind of bandwidth and focus, but as I only trade stocks part time, I do not. And even if I did, I know my psychology, I probably wouldnt pull the trigger after its big move that alerted me again to its existence anyway.
I applauded David again today for his reply, and also for the fact that I have had more peace of mind recently holding CIMT with strong hands than I did flipping stocks daily. I have had more time for myself and my business, and honestly less stress which is hard for me personally to put a value on.
And if a year from now the stock has gained me a bag or more and I can sell with a long term capital gain, how much sweeter that will be. Time will tell...
First of all, I want to say applaud to tokyopua, buddjas1, and David! Tokyopua, you took the words right out of my mouth! I couldn't have said it any better! Buddjas1, I understand your point and want to say that I also have been burned many times holding thru earnings, but the fact is for me I held stocks that went down after earnings and then went straight up without me missing a huge run. I realize we have had some bad expereinces with stocks because of earnings, but you can't compare all stocks and there are stocks that do surprise and take off because of earnings and those are the ones I always miss out on. I'm not saying CIMT will surprise everyone, what I am saying is that the risk/reward ratio is more favorably with CIMT than with other stocks since CIMT is in the early stages of a turnaround and is just now showing the rewards. Unlike TZOO, they have had many quarters in a row of record earnings and profits, but it had to come to a stall sooner or later. As for CIMT, they are now just showing the improvements and are working hard to show the street that they deserve a higher market cap value. Excuse me if I don't make much sense, tonight is pizza night with my family and i've had a few beers so my writing is a bit off track. Bottom line, CIMT went through a complete turnaround at a high cost, it is in their best interests to show the street that this turnaround is working and now the company is on track to higher profit margins and I believe 2006 was a great example of their improvements and 2007 will be even better! That's all I have to say! I believe this to be the best stock on the portofolio!
Mbaugh
The way I see this quarter coming up. It will be a toss up 50/50 gamble.
I liquidated this morning for a small gain. Good luck.
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 11, 2007, 09:50:55 AM
I liquidated this morning for a small gain. Good luck.
What a pity. Thanks for the information buddjas1, good luck :)
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 11, 2007, 09:50:55 AM
I liquidated this morning for a small gain. Good luck.
I liquidated my CIMT holding yesterday as well (30% gain). I just see a consistant track record for earnings and revenues to hold. Unless their earnings are over .07 next report (enough the justlfy a 150% gain simce their last repor). I think we will see a pullback, Depending on the numbers and the comments, I might buy back after their next earnings report. I just added more SILC this morning. We are close to the 50-day average, I think we are really close to end of this correction. I wish SILC would go in more detail about why the needed to do the private placement (i.e. increase production, acquistions). The current price is about a dollar under the private placement price with about 12 straight quarters of revenue and income growth, SILC could be a huge winner. Once they announce their next design win, it will pop at least a couple of points. I wish everyone good luck.
Quote from: eggman11 on May 11, 2007, 10:09:33 AM
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 11, 2007, 09:50:55 AM
I liquidated this morning for a small gain. Good luck.
I liquidated my CIMT holding yesterday as well (30% gain). I just see a consistant track record for earnings and revenues to hold. Unless their earnings are over .07 next report (enough the justlfy a 150% gain simce their last repor). I think we will see a pullback, Depending on the numbers and the comments, I might buy back after their next earnings report. I just added more SILC this morning. We are close to the 50-day average, I think we are really close to end of this correction. I wish SILC would go in more detail about why the needed to do the private placement (i.e. increase production, acquistions). The current price is about a dollar under the private placement price with about 12 straight quarters of revenue and income growth, SILC could be a huge winner. Once they announce their next design win, it will pop at least a couple of points. I wish everyone good luck.
Good luck eggman11 & buddjas1, I'm not selling my CIMT, who knows we could even get a nice bounce today. Anyways, I think it was a mistake to trade off selling CIMT to buy SILC, I would at least have waited to see how far SILC would fall and since they just did that private placement, it can fall further IMO. I see CIMT being the same as SILC was in the beginning, to me there's more room to for CIMT to grow than SILC in terms of share price.
For the people selling, I hope you have in mind that if CIMT posts another 7 cent gain per share in Q1 2007 you're going to see the stock immediately above $5. Looking beyond this quarter, I believe you're not paying enough attention to the fact that this management didn't dilute shareholder's value in very difficult times, so with $20 - $30 M revenues I don't see how it can be worth less than $20 - $30 M, or something like $2.5 - $3.5, even if it loses money going forward (and there's indication of profitability).
The risk is about 20%, the reward is 70 or 80% short term, several bags of profits over the longer term, so I don't understand your decision. But I respect it. Good luck on your other buys, especially SILC :)
I have different point of view ...
this stock could explode very soon ... people are affraid but patient needed with such stocks ..
I hope everyone wins
Looks like we have a nice bounce! I have a question, Does CIMT announce the earnings date in advance or do they just issue the earnings without a pre-announcement? I can't find anything in the past where they had a pre-earnings announcment date. I did notice that most of the earnings report in the past were issued on Mondays around 5 am ET.
I've been studying CIMT for some time and finally bought today, just not so much that I might have weak hands. I think the reward vs risk ratio is VERY compelling. I'm looking forward to adding considerable more after the ER. I will likely even add more before the report, even though I feel it is still somewhat speculative, I am greatly optimistic here!
Manufacturing is very much alive and well, especially overseas. HDNG - Hardinge, a manufacturer of computer controlled machinery just had another blowout Q.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070510/nyth035.html?.v=93
HURC will report soon and will likely surprise to the upside also.
Those selling now, must have bought too much to feel comfortable with? Instead of selling all, why not just bring it down to a more reasonable comfort level?
This just might be one of David's greatest finds.
Quote from: mbaugh on May 11, 2007, 10:22:29 AM
Quote from: eggman11 on May 11, 2007, 10:09:33 AM
Quote from: buddjas1 on May 11, 2007, 09:50:55 AM
I liquidated this morning for a small gain. Good luck.
I liquidated my CIMT holding yesterday as well (30% gain). I just see a consistant track record for earnings and revenues to hold. Unless their earnings are over .07 next report (enough the justlfy a 150% gain simce their last repor). I think we will see a pullback, Depending on the numbers and the comments, I might buy back after their next earnings report. I just added more SILC this morning. We are close to the 50-day average, I think we are really close to end of this correction. I wish SILC would go in more detail about why the needed to do the private placement (i.e. increase production, acquistions). The current price is about a dollar under the private placement price with about 12 straight quarters of revenue and income growth, SILC could be a huge winner. Once they announce their next design win, it will pop at least a couple of points. I wish everyone good luck.
Good luck eggman11 & buddjas1, I'm not selling my CIMT, who knows we could even get a nice bounce today. Anyways, I think it was a mistake to trade off selling CIMT to buy SILC, I would at least have waited to see how far SILC would fall and since they just did that private placement, it can fall further IMO. I see CIMT being the same as SILC was in the beginning, to me there's more room to for CIMT to grow than SILC in terms of share price.
Good Call on SILC!!!
May not mean much, but here is what one very small U.S. company has to say about Cimatron. Note that they were remarking about Cimatron E version 6. I think they released version 7 last year and version 8 just in March this year, probably with significant improvements. This company also uses Hurco CNC machines.
http://www.ftdinc.com/cimatron.htm
CIMT be booming for sure and getting lots more business the CnC machine and manufacturing industry is booming and on fire ;D. Just take a look at all these CnC/industrial manufacturing stocks as of late.
SIF
WSCI
HURC
HDNG
KMT
etc
Here is also a nice review/write up about one of CIMT newest software products http://www.americanmachinist.com/304/Issue/Article/False/11568/Issue
Its the first CAD/CAM software to be able to do micro milling
Quote from: nullzero on May 11, 2007, 10:30:53 PM
CIMT be booming for sure and getting lots more business the CnC machine and manufacturing industry is booming and on fire ;D. Just take a look at all these CnC/industrial manufacturing stocks as of late.
SIF
WSCI
HURC
HDNG
KMT
etc
Here is also a nice review/write up about one of CIMT newest software products http://www.americanmachinist.com/304/Issue/Article/False/11568/Issue
Its the first CAD/CAM software to be able to do micro milling
Cool article. I wonder if they can also use this for designing MEMS (Micro Electronic Mechanical Systems) as that is a huge market growing something like 20% per year.
Thanks for the useful articles BigSully1 and nullzero, they show the company has a good product and service.
CIMT keeps bouncing from the 50% Fibonacci retracement support level, around $3.30, and the 50 days SMA is getting close, currently at $3.24. Technically everything seems set for a new bullish phase to begin, one that takes the stock to new highs above $4.70.
We're just 2 or 3 days away from Q1 results. Whatever the results are, I'll probably keep on holding CIMT, because if they're strong, I'll be positively surprised, and if they're weak, I'll attribute that to seasonal factors.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 11, 2007, 11:51:39 AM
I've been studying CIMT for some time and finally bought today, just not so much that I might have weak hands. I think the reward vs risk ratio is VERY compelling. I'm looking forward to adding considerable more after the ER. I will likely even add more before the report, even though I feel it is still somewhat speculative, I am greatly optimistic here!
Manufacturing is very much alive and well, especially overseas. HDNG - Hardinge, a manufacturer of computer controlled machinery just had another blowout Q.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070510/nyth035.html?.v=93
HURC will report soon and will likely surprise to the upside also.
Those selling now, must have bought too much to feel comfortable with? Instead of selling all, why not just bring it down to a more reasonable comfort level?
This just might be one of David's greatest finds.
By the way, HDNG moved way up to #2 on IBD's 100 list this weekend. HURC back on the list at #65, might climb higher on the list after ER.
#1 BTJ #2 HDNG #3 MTOX.
IBD made good mention of NGA, but mostly that it hasn't yet formed a base since breakout below 10. Will probably end up on their 100 list once it breaks and holds $15. Stocks have to be above $15 to appear on the list. GIGM may soon be on the list also as IBD has commented alot about it last couple months.
It's always nice to find these stocks well before they ever appear on the list. CIMT may very well be one of those. It could even end up #1, if and when it breaks $15. I have a good feeling on this one.
Quote from: BigSully1 on May 11, 2007, 08:02:53 PM
May not mean much, but here is what one very small U.S. company has to say about Cimatron. Note that they were remarking about Cimatron E version 6. I think they released version 7 last year and version 8 just in March this year, probably with significant improvements. This company also uses Hurco CNC machines.
http://www.ftdinc.com/cimatron.htm
I just found out that this company is now using Cimatron E version 8. Maybe I will try to call them tommorrow and see if I can get an opinion from them.
Cimatron's Q1 2007 Results Release Scheduled for May 21th
Monday May 14, 6:12 am ET
Conference Call Scheduled for May 21st, 2007 at 9:00am EDT
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070514/ukm021.html?.v=55 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070514/ukm021.html?.v=55)
I feel good about earnings coming out on a Monday before market open.
Most of the good earnings posted on Mondays before market open are good :)
and the stock looks good now
Quote from: Garoh on May 14, 2007, 10:48:13 AM
Most of the good earnings posted on Mondays before market open are good :)
and the stock looks good now
Agreed, its interesting how that tends to work. When companies have bad earnings they tend to try to sneak them in after the bell on Friday, when they have good earnings they like to showcase them early in the week to get the most eyes on them. This isnt a guarantee for CIMT, but it does seem like a good sign anyway.
Looking at the industry and related industries earnings recently there is a strong chance we will get some good earnings.
QuoteIBD made good mention of NGA, but mostly that it hasn't yet formed a base since breakout below 10. Will probably end up on their 100 list once it breaks and holds $15. Stocks have to be above $15 to appear on the list. GIGM may soon be on the list also as IBD has commented alot about it last couple months.
Nice, both NGA and GIGM are above $15 now. I remember that appearing on the IBD top 10 had a tremendous effect on SYX, remember? Unfortunately the very sharp rally that unfolded was a selling opportunity, since SYX is now more than 40% below those levels.
QuoteIt's always nice to find these stocks well before they ever appear on the list. CIMT may very well be one of those. It could even end up #1, if and when it breaks $15. I have a good feeling on this one.
CIMT at $15 would mean the second biggest gain ever for the Main Portfolio, that would be awesome. But make sure you have a lot of patience to wait for that outcome, because it can take several years (or not, since it is such a small cap). The estimates I have on my valuation model call for CIMT at $24.45 in late 2009 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main), so ... why not?
As Se7en posted, we now have an official date for the Q1 earnings release, which is nice:
• Cimatron's Q1 2007 Results Release Scheduled for May 21th (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070514/ukm021.html?.v=55)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:12am)
I believe this is the first time they pre-announce the earnings release date, and also the first time we'll get a conference call after the earnings (we didn't get one on the full year 2006 results presentation, just a press release). So, CIMT wants everybody to pay close attention to these quarterly numbers, which I believe is a positive sign.
Quote from: mbaugh on May 14, 2007, 10:40:58 AM
I feel good about earnings coming out on a Monday before market open.
I'm not aware of that "good earnings are released on Monday morning" pattern, but I hope you guys are right mbaugh, Garoh and tokyopua.
Quote from: nullzero on May 14, 2007, 01:14:07 PM
Looking at the industry and related industries earnings recently there is a strong chance we will get some good earnings.
I agree nullzero, manufacturing is hot across the world, and CIMT is a very small but global manufacturing software services company. So the macro environment is favorable.
But let's not get too excited about this quarter (making sure we don't get depressed if earnings aren't that good), since Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter. But history also says that after Q1 it can only get better, so if Q1 is good ... uh la la for the rest of the year.
I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands.
quote "I believe this is the first time they pre-announce the earnings release date, and also the first time we'll get a conference call after the earnings (we didn't get one on the full year 2006 results presentation, just a press release). So, CIMT wants everybody to pay close attention to these quarterly numbers, which I believe is a positive sign. "
David, in your above statement, could this signal pressure from institutional investors wanting CIMT to have a conference call or do your believe they are doing this since they feel they are a new company meaning the turnaround is finished, now CIMT is a proitable company and they want to act like a growing company. I'm just curious since I would have thought they would have done this on Q4 and year end earnings. My feeling is that in order to gain institutional investors you have to provide conference calls to shed more insight as to what is going on within the company before they decide to buy. Large institutional players will make a stock move much higher since they buy large blocks at a time.
Mbaugh
QuoteDavid, in your above statement, could this signal pressure from institutional investors wanting CIMT to have a conference call or do your believe they are doing this since they feel they are a new company meaning the turnaround is finished, now CIMT is a proitable company and they want to act like a growing company. I'm just curious since I would have thought they would have done this on Q4 and year end earnings. My feeling is that in order to gain institutional investors you have to provide conference calls to shed more insight as to what is going on within the company before they decide to buy. Large institutional players will make a stock move much higher since they buy large blocks at a time.
Mbaugh
According to my fundamental data service there's only one institution holding CIMT's shares, and just 25,000 of them, so management sure needs to attract institutional investors.
I agree with your view of management's motivation to make a conference call this time, now we'll just have to wait for the quarterly results to see the facts.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
Maybe this is a dumb question. Since today was the last day for filing 2007 quarter 1 results, shouldn't CIMT have already filed or is it different for a foreign company? I understand CIMT is to report on Monday, I'm wondering are they waiting until the last minute to file such as GOAM. I know CIMT is completely different than GOAM and I feel very confident on holding CIMT thru its earnings, I'm just wondering how the deadlines are different? When is the absolute deadline for CIMT to file anyways, i wanted to see how close they are to the last day required.
Thanks for the help!
Mbaugh
CIMT is considered a foreign private issuer. They're not required to file a 10Q. Only a 20-F.
"A foreign private issuer must file its annual report on Form 20-F within six months after the end of the fiscal year covered by the report"
http://www.secfile.net/SEC_calendar.htm#EDGAR_Filing_Deadlines_for_Quarterly_and_Annual_Reports
M.
Thanks for the information Money, applaud :)
CIMT will report on Monday before the market open, and I'll hold through earnings, even though I haven't been "lucky" with that course of action lately. But as I wrote today on GOAM's thread, if I were to sell holdings before earnings I would be doomed to be a short term trader (never holding a stock for more than 3 months), and I sure don't want that.
But I need to tell everybody not to raise expectations too much (especially I want to warn myself), because Q1 is a seasonally weak quarter for CIMT ... moreover, it will be easier to deal with a not so satisfactory outcome if we're prepared for it (I know, I didn't prepare for GOAM's negative news, I genuinely thought the quarter was going to be profitable - I want to learn something from the situation).
So, to put everything in perspective on the three updates I have left before earnings, I want to make clear that I'm not owning CIMT because of positive expectations for this quarter, but because of longer term motivations. Q1 2007 can be weak and CIMT can still be a $20 plus stock three years from now.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Technically CIMT is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, which basically means "nobody knows what to do". But usually these formations end up breaking out in the direction of the long term trend, which in CIMT's case is obviously bullish.
Mbaugh was saying at the chat (by the way, pay us a visit at the chat between 12:00 and 13:00, every trading day, it has been great) that he thought CIMT would be trading higher in anticipation of good results. But my thinking is it is better this way, we don't want to inflate expectations before the actual news hits the wires. Moreover, look at GOAM, the stock was up before earnings, it looked like "somebody knew something", but no, everybody was wrong in predicting strong revenue growth and positive net income, and the stock tanked.
My take is, with today's fear of going to jail like it happened to several guys lately, insider trading is almost non-existent. Which insider is going to let information leak knowing he can end up in jail because of that? The risk is too high and therefore there's an information gap between quarters.
Going back to CIMT ... I just love the fact that the company didn't dilute shareholder's value in tough times (between other positive factors), I'll keep on holding it for the long term with strong hands.
For the better or worse, the decision time has come. Not decision time for me personally, since I already said I won't sell CIMT whatever this quarter brings, but certainly it will be decision time for the stock in terms of breaking out of the symmetrical triangle formation on the chart below.
Another profit of $0.07 per share will probably make CIMT fly over $5. Anything below $0.03 will be a disappointment and may take the stock down between 10 and 20%.
There's nothing to do now but to wait for the numbers, which will be released before the market opens on Monday. I'll be on watch to update this thread as soon as the results are published and will listen to the conference call at 9 AM ET.
The Main Portfolio could use a strong rally, but as a long term investor in CIMT, I'll keep on holding the stock whatever happens.
looks like business is good, we'll see come Monday
http://moulddiemaking-in.blogspot.com/2007/05/going-lean-cuts-tool-delivery-time-by.html
Cimatron Reports Operating and Net Profit in Q1 2007 and Announces the Increase of its Holdings in Microsystem to 51%
Monday May 21, 1:01 am ET
Consolidating Microsystem's Financial Results Starting Q3 2007 Will Significantly Increase Cimatron's Revenues
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070521/uksu013.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070521/uksu013.html?.v=1)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, May 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced financial results for the first quarter of 2007.
Cimatron's business and financial results are well in line with the company's plans. They reflect the organizational turnaround of the last two years and the positive response to its recently launched CimatronE version 8, as well as typical market seasonality.
Financial Highlights:
Following a profitable 2006, the first quarter of 2007 continues the trend of operational and net profitability.
Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were stable at $5.33 million, compared to $5.37 million in the first quarter of 2006. Software product revenues in the first quarter of 2007 increased 2.2% compared to the same quarter in 2006.
Gross Profit for the first quarter of 2007 was stable at $4.46 million, compared to $4.44 million in the same period in 2006. Gross margin in the first quarter was 83.7%, slightly higher than the 82.6% in Q1 2006.
Operating Profit in the first quarter of 2007 was $113 thousand, compared to an operating profit of $231 thousand in the first quarter of 2006.
Net Profit for the quarter was $181 thousand, or $0.023 per diluted share, compared to a net profit of $220 thousand, or $0.028 per diluted share recorded in the same quarter of 2006.
Cimatron's board of directors approved yesterday evening the exercise of Cimatron's previously disclosed first call option to acquire an additional 23.5% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, and accordingly, to increase Cimatron's holding in Microsystem from 27.5% to 51%. One year after the exercise of this option, which is expected to occur in June 2007, Cimatron will be entitled to exercise its second call option to acquire the remaining 49% of Microsystem's share capital.
Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to present another profitable quarter, in line with our strategic plan. Cimatron's financials for Q1 2007 reflect the initial positive acceptance to our innovative CimatronE version 8 for die makers, mold makers and discrete parts manufacturers, and our ongoing efforts to maintain tight expense control and more efficient organization. We are particularly pleased with market feedback to the new Die Design product launched in Q1 2007.
The increase in our holdings in Microsystem is designed to strengthen our leading position in Italy, one of our key markets in West Europe. We have worked closely with Microsystem's management and staff since we acquired 27.5% of its shares in 2005, and we already see the benefits for both companies' customers and employees. Sales of Cimatron software products in Italy in Q1 2007 were 29% higher than in Q1 2006. The acquisition of an additional 23.5% of Microsystem's shares will bring us to a holding of 51% and consequently we will start consolidating Microsystem's financial reports starting Q3 2007. Microsystem's total revenues in 2006 were approximately $10.5 million."
Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "Cimatron's management is pleased with the progress being made in the implementation of our strategic plans, and with the increased penetration of our new products to the target markets. We believe that this trend will continue throughout the year."
Not as expected :(
But this year will be profitable year .....
David what do you think ?
I wonder how the market is going to react to this. David said that below .03 may be seen as a disappointment.
I think this is the best part ...
The acquisition of an additional 23.5% of Microsystem's shares will bring us to a holding of 51% and consequently we will start consolidating Microsystem's financial reports starting Q3 2007. Microsystem's total revenues in 2006 were approximately $10.5 million."
Quote from: Se7en on May 21, 2007, 02:23:24 AM
I think this is the best part ...
The acquisition of an additional 23.5% of Microsystem's shares will bring us to a holding of 51% and consequently we will start consolidating Microsystem's financial reports starting Q3 2007. Microsystem's total revenues in 2006 were approximately $10.5 million."
Se7en yes you'er right
This will ease the situation a bit :)
But we still need to wait for the conference Call maybe there's something better they will say ....
They should mention something about China ..
When we go back to 2 years ago the company had losses but 2006 they got 7 cents and as known that Q1 always the weakest quarter I think this year they could make at least more than 0.15 which should take the stock to $6 level .... This is almost double from current price :)
• Cimatron Reports Operating and Net Profit in Q1 2007 and Announces the Increase of its Holdings in Microsystem to 51% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070521/uksu013.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Mon 1:01am)
We already knew that Q1 was the weakest quarter of the year from a seasonal standpoint, but I expected some revenue and net income growth from Q1 2006. It didn't happen, revenue went down a negligible 0.74% to $5.33 M and net income was $181 K versus $220 K. Anyway, for the past 6 months we had EPS of $0.093, and if the next 6 months resemble the past 6, we'll get EPS of $0.186 for a full year. If we apply the Technical & System Software industry average earnings multiple of 35.64 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT), we get to a price per share of $6.63 by the end of 2007.
Despite February and March big jump in the share price and volume traded, the company didn't sell one single share, as the # of shares outstanding on a basic and fully diluted basis remained the same, at 7.835 million.
As for the increase in Microsystem's holdings, from 27.5% to 51%, I see it as a positive move.
51% of $10.5 M in annual revenues are $5.355 M, which for a full year would mean a 25% increase in CIMT's revenue, which were $21.5 M in 2006. If CIMT exercises the option of buying the remaining 49%, this deal alone will make CIMT's revenues jump from $21.5 M to $32 M, a 48.8% increase. On my valuation model I'm expecting 20% revenue CAGR for the next three years, which means 72.8% revenue growth for the whole three year period. So, 48.8 percentage points already seem to be in the cards, just 24 percentage points to go (which can be obtained through organic growth or acquisitions).
The part that lacks is the net profit margin rising from 9.84% in Q4 2006 to 15% in full year 2009. Net profit margin in Q1 2007 was just 3.4%, but there's the excuse of seasonality.
I still need to listen to the conference call, but the overall view is that the company is on track to achieve what I expect in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). The market can show some disappointment today, but that will probably be just a short term thing. This quarter is a further confirmation that the future is bright, and that the stock is undervalued, right here, right now.
What impact do you expect today? Do you think a 10- 20% drop or do you think the news of the acquistion will help prevent a drop of the share price? Thanks.
Quote from: mbaugh on May 21, 2007, 06:39:53 AM
What impact do you expect today? Do you think a 10- 20% drop or do you think the news of the acquistion will help prevent a drop of the share price? Thanks.
It's very hard to know how investors will react today, but I would expect something like a 3 - 5% drop in the morning and a close unchanged, or, if the conference call transpires confidence, maybe the stock will even rise. I don't know how investors will react to today's news, but with current information I could justify a price per share above $6 and I see $15 plus three years from now.
looks like a buying opportunity... just bought more @ $2.55 hope it holds!
I added some more at 2.60 which was my avg. cost in this trade anyways. I had a small position to begin with so I felt it was worth it to add as the news seems bright for the future.
Quote from: DragonAMG on May 21, 2007, 09:33:46 AM
looks like a buying opportunity... just bought more @ $2.55 hope it holds!
Indeed. What a sell off :o I guess this is more due to the low liquidity of the stock than anything else ... brrr, what a pity the stock gave reason to short term traders, but, well, congrats to the people that took profits before earnings, I'm at the point I was a couple of months ago on CIMT.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
tough day, but I guess this is part of long term investing. I just bought more at 2.50.
It seems CIMT is recovering fast now...2.5$ is a critycal point, the top of the gap...if it breaks down there is nothing till 1.5$
Hi David,
I hope that you are doing well today - tough day in the market for CIMT - OUCH! :o
Excuse me for sounding silly, but how does it follow that:
"This quarter is a further confirmation that the future is bright, and that the stock is undervalued, right here, right now."
When we witnessed today that both revenue and net income decreased for the quarter?
"revenue went down a negligible 0.74% to $5.33 M and net income was $181 K versus $220 K."
David: I dont see such a bright future for CIMT, given these facts. What do you see, that I am missing here?
Thanks - and have a good one!
Bourbon :)
my 2nd bloodbath in a good week time ... :'( :(
Quote from: terainvestment on May 21, 2007, 10:07:40 AM
It seems CIMT is recovering fast now...2.5$ is a critycal point, the top of the gap...if it breaks down there is nothing till 1.5$
Just a point of clarification, $2.5 zone is indeed a support area, but not the top of the gap, that is actually at 1.8.
Wow, at 2.95 now, seems like CIMT was put on sale there for awhile heh, hope the recover continues and we close about $3.
Sorry tokyopua, you are right.
I was wondering the same question about the brilliant future of CIMT...should this one a weak quarter or a stopping of the good trend both in revenues and earnings?
Just checked the price and the bid is higher than the ask! thats wierd?
QuoteHi David,
I hope that you are doing well today - tough day in the market for CIMT - OUCH! :o
Yes, I'm feeling very well today. Like I wasn't particularly happy when NVTL rose 10% after rising 30% or so, I'm not particularly sad today that CIMT is falling ... let me see now ... 21%. I feel the same, since the stock market doesn't have the power to change my mood.
QuoteExcuse me for sounding silly, but how does it follow that:
"This quarter is a further confirmation that the future is bright, and that the stock is undervalued, right here, right now."
When we witnessed today that both revenue and net income decreased for the quarter?
"revenue went down a negligible 0.74% to $5.33 M and net income was $181 K versus $220 K."
Well, I wrote that the stock is undervalued right here, right now, because over the past six months CIMT had net income of $0.093 per share, and if the next 6 months which are seasonally stronger deliver at least the same $0.093 EPS, the stock will then have $0.186 for a full 12 month period. At, $3.65 that gave me an estimated 19.6 times earnings multiple, and the Technical software industry is currently trading at 35.64 times earnings. At $2.89 the estimated EPS multiple is about 15.5, which, again, compared to the industry average is outrageously low.
As for the comparison between Q1 2007 and Q1 2006, indeed, this quarter was just a bit lighter than the year ago quarter. But we got assurance that there will be revenue growth due to the contribution of Myscrosystem's acquisition, starting in Q3 2007.
Also, I figure that the company's recent product launches, that were effective only in late Q1, still didn't have a material contribution to sales and earnings, but probably they will going forward.
QuoteDavid: I dont see such a bright future for CIMT, given these facts. What do you see, that I am missing here?
Thanks - and have a good one!
I see a weak quarter due to seasonality, but revenue and EPS growth going forward, either because of organic growth or acquisitions. I also see a company that never diluted shareholder's value, so management's objectives are aligned with the ones of common shareholders.
It's going to take time (probably three years), but I still see CIMT with a $191 M market cap in 2009, that is, at $24.45.
Quote from: terainvestment on May 21, 2007, 10:20:46 AM
Sorry tokyopua, you are right.
I was wondering the same question about the brilliant future of CIMT...should this one a weak quarter or a stopping of the good trend both in revenues and earnings?
Hi terainvestment, there wasn't any trend, just one good quarter, and now a not so good, but still profitable, quarter. The company has been through intense restructuring, product development and cost cutting efforts. Now, this quarter was light, but I was already expecting it (not this weak, but weak). It doesn't change the long term outlook for the company, as management says, and I believe them because they have no interest in lying:
«Cimatron's business and financial results are well in line with the company's plans. They reflect the organizational turnaround of the last two years and the positive response to its recently launched CimatronE version 8,
as well as typical market seasonality.»
Ohhh my lord! 23% drop.....it is a tough day. :(
2 bucks should be a safe entry point on this one.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 21, 2007, 09:44:39 AM
congrats to the people that took profits before earnings
Wish I was one of them... :-\ :-\ :-\
Will keep holding too.
David, doesn't this (once again earnings sell off) make you reconsider on the other ones this week GIGM, NTES etc. Somehow holding through earnings never seems to work out right. Does anybody have some positive examples?
Amarens
QuoteDoes anybody have some positive examples?
You can pick any stock that rose a lot over the years. As for stocks that we know well, SILC and NVTL, for example:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37060;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=37061;image)
The only thing that makes me sad about CIMT's fall is that people may disregard the benefits of long term investing and go back to swing trading :'(
Have to go now, see you after the close for the daily updates.
I guess NVTL is a positive exampel twice (also jump in May after earning release). SILC went way down after earnings release on April 25th.
Well, just have to learn to deal with these mixed feelings with long term holding.
Question: Is it really disregard long term investing if you have the knowledge most stocks fall after earnings release and you act on it by securing gains and re-invest basically right away?
Might be interesting to do some research on this, average % of fall after earnings release with long term interesting stocks? I'll see if I can find some time for that this week.
Amarens
Hello everyone.
In the past couple of weeks, i've been reading this post and questioning myself if i should buy CIMTor not..
After reading the posts and looking at CIMT's charts (i added it) i decided to "sit on the fance" for now... unless the stock breaks the 4.1 $ which means good news.
The reason i decided to do that is that even if we don't like it... in small stocks like CIMT, there is ALWAYS someone who knows and talks to his friends, the advantage for us is that we can see that if we look close enough...
we could saw it in the many resistances in the last few weeks (i circled in red) - couple of critical weeks before the reports.
NOW the story can be different: all the premium the investors gave CIMT disepeared...
BUT, the responds where, i think, exaggerated. look at the "over shoot" the stock made.
(the blue arows)
i tried to buy it in the 26%-27% low of the day, because i felt it is too much but didnt cought it.. (i'm working from israel with local broker with 20 min delay) now the stock is in the range that investors that took the time to learn the report think it should be...
now is the time to sit calmly and decide if the price is cheap enough...
CIMT's future look good anyway, there is no question for me here, just when to enter.
Good luck,
avivwiz
Quote from: tokyopua on May 21, 2007, 10:01:45 AM
tough day, but I guess this is part of long term investing. I just bought more at 2.50.
I am glad to have caught CIMT at the low of the day. I had mentally prepared myself for this kind of scenario and resolved that if the stock gave me a chance to get more at a discount that I would take it instead of worrying about my paper losses. I nearly doubled my position in CIMT today, which if the long term plays out as we expect it will, is like doubling the bags I hope to get.
Of course, as we saw today nothing is certain and the stock could still go below 2.5, but I would expect that this is the worst news we would expect to hear all year given the seasonality of Q1 being generally weak. And if indeed it just keeps going higher from here I will look back on today and just smile.
I dont know much about CIMT or its potential or its bottom but I do want to say that David has time and again proved that he has the best record. I did watch CIMT with disgust as it was falling like rock but I think it has more to do with being low float then anything else. If some big hedge fund or even a small fund wants to manipulate it then it will. Just try selling 5k shares at market and you may move this stock 1%. If even twenty of us are selling at open then you get something like 20%. On the positive side it may need about 20 of us to move it back 20%. I think the stock may be back in 3.5 range in couple of days.
Quote from: stocky on May 21, 2007, 11:40:12 PM
I dont know much about CIMT or its potential or its bottom but I do want to say that David has time and again proved that he has the best record. I did watch CIMT with disgust as it was falling like rock but I think it has more to do with being low float then anything else. If some big hedge fund or even a small fund wants to manipulate it then it will. Just try selling 5k shares at market and you may move this stock 1%. If even twenty of us are selling at open then you get something like 20%. On the positive side it may need about 20 of us to move it back 20%. I think the stock may be back in 3.5 range in couple of days.
1000shrs can move this stock 1% easily hehe.
As David had expected with earnings less than .03 investors may over-react and we would see a 10-20% drop. We saw great support at 2.50 as it bounced sharply and traded steady above 2.75 the rest of the day. I think we will see 3.00+ very soon and never look back.
Great potential for the next 3 quarters, in 2006 with an even 2nd quarter, -.04 3rd quarter, and +.07 4th quarter (note: I don't know much about these earnings other than the final result), so we only need to see greater than +.04 over the next 3 quarters to see profit growth. We already know the 3rd quarter should be much better than -.04 with factoring in profits from Microsystems. I think management has this company in a great position to succeed in 2007 and beyond. I believe that this blip will soon be long forgotten.
Cheers to all those willing to tough out the short term hurdles; your reward awaits you.
Looks like a good buying opp today picked some up today and more tomorrow.
Buy $2.50 -$2.80
Cimatron's board of directors approved yesterday evening the exercise of Cimatron's previously disclosed first call option to acquire an additional 23.5% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, and accordingly, to increase Cimatron's holding in Microsystem from 27.5% to 51%. One year after the exercise of this option, which is expected to occur in June 2007, Cimatron will be entitled to exercise its second call option to acquire the remaining 49% of Microsystem's share capital.
David, how much will it cost CIMT to purchase 23,5% of the shares or even 23,5% + 49% or how does these first call options work?
I assume they have the funds to do it but will their financial situation still be 'healthy' after doing this? I mean, can we expect some dilution so they can raise some cash or am I completely wrong here? :)
Also, did you listen to the CC David? Was there anything new, maybe some forward guidance or something about some new possible contracts?
Tia!
QuoteQuestion: Is it really disregard long term investing if you have the knowledge most stocks fall after earnings release and you act on it by securing gains and re-invest basically right away?
Might be interesting to do some research on this, average % of fall after earnings release with long term interesting stocks? I'll see if I can find some time for that this week.
I don't think that most stocks fall after the earnings release, but that would be a great research work Amarens, but it would require an immense work. Perhaps you should sample 100 stocks, study them on an historical basis and then extrapolate the results to the whole market. Gee, I should be the one doing this, not you, but I will hardly have time to do it, at least over the next couple of weeks. Tell me how you're thinking of organizing this, perhaps we could split some tasks. Thanks Amarens :)
QuoteDavid, how much will it cost CIMT to purchase 23,5% of the shares or even 23,5% + 49% or how does these first call options work?
The 23.5% of Microsystem (their Italian distributor) will cost Cimatron $600,000. CIMT currently has $7.489 M in cash and equivalents and will use it to make this acquisition. The company has a call to buy the remaining 49% of Microsystem for $1.1 M.
QuoteI assume they have the funds to do it but will their financial situation still be 'healthy' after doing this? I mean, can we expect some dilution so they can raise some cash or am I completely wrong here? :)
Zero dilution, but I guess many market participants saw yesterday's news as "dilution coming". They don't know CIMT's history of zero dilution.
QuoteAlso, did you listen to the CC David? Was there anything new, maybe some forward guidance or something about some new possible contracts?
Yes, I listened to the CC. Here are my highlights:
- This was the first ever conference call from the company;
- Cimatron 8.0 version allows the company to enter a whole new market, the Die design market (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070315/ukth013.html?.v=80). The company expects growing revenues from this new market over the next few quarters. Management expects organic growth;
- The first 27.5% of Microsystem, which were bought in 2005, cost € 575,000. The 23.5% they'll buy in June 2007 will cost $600,000. And they have a call to buy the remaining 49% for $1.1 M in June 2008;
- Microsystem had $10.5 M in revenues in 2006 and it was profitable (they didn't disclose by how much). CIMT expects Microsystem to remain profitable in 2007 and beyond and the acquisition will be accretive to earnings starting in Q3 2007;
- In terms of geographical sales, CIMT sells 57% in Europe, 23% in the Asia Pacific, 12% in North America and 8% in the rest of the world;
- The CFO specifically said: "if you go back and study our financial reports, you'll see that seasonality always affects the 1st quarter results" (like we did), but "we expect strong revenue growth from the recently launched Cimatron 8 version, because we'll enter brand new markets";
- To the question: "Are you going to use more of your cash to fund other M&A oppotunities?" the answer was "we're always studying strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder's value, and yes, expect more M&A in the future".
I already had this conviction, but after listening to the conference call I'm more reassured that CIMT is an outstanding long term investment. People taking the stock down 23% yesterday don't have a clue, it only happened due to technical reasons, low liquidity and lack of institutional following.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
good discussion of CIMT earnings results on yahoo MB
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=390&mid=390&tof=1&frt=2
Yes elliemae, the points on that Yahoo post make sense, perhaps Q1 revenue declined because they were about to launch Cimatron E version 8.0 and businesses didn't want to buy the prior version.
People sold CIMT in a rage yesterday, but in my view that was because they made a superficial fundamental analysis:
- They saw a year on year revenue and net income decline (negligible decline), and a stock price 141% above the year ago levels;
- They saw potential dilution coming from an acquisition, disregarding the fact that CIMT never diluted shareholder's value and has a strong balance sheet. Moreover the acquisition will cost just $600 K.
Yes, CIMT stock price is much higher now than what it was a year ago, but that's because the future looks much brighter now and it is much more secure. The company has new products to sell, it won't spend so much on R&D, it is time to execute, sell the product and reap the reward.
Today's candle was a doji and perhaps it indicates recovery is about to start. I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Yes David we'll see a nice more for this stock as well as they volume today is above the daily averge ..
Yesterday I added 50% more to my long term position at 2.66 I think this is the worst news for this stock and the next will be the best :)
Quote from: David Randolph on May 22, 2007, 06:20:49 AM
I don't think that most stocks fall after the earnings release, but that would be a great research work Amarens, but it would require an immense work. Perhaps you should sample 100 stocks, study them on an historical basis and then extrapolate the results to the whole market. Gee, I should be the one doing this, not you, but I will hardly have time to do it, at least over the next couple of weeks. Tell me how you're thinking of organizing this, perhaps we could split some tasks. Thanks Amarens :)
Hi David,
I don't know if such an immense work. I guess it is if you do it the way you suggest, which would give it a wider base. I was thinking about the stocks we're holding on the main, most with the intention for longer term. So stocks with a positive outlook. You have the intention of holding but why go through a big fall if you could have secured profits and get back in lower and continue the ride.
Looking back at the last 4 to 6 earning relases. I did a quick one on GIGM yesterday, based on closes.
February 2007 releases: on the day fall of 7,4%,
high of the day not higher than day before,
next day no fall
November 2006 releases: on the day fall of 5,6%,
high of the day higher than day before,
next day slight rise (3,7%)
August 2006 releases: on the day fall of 2,5%,
high of the day higher than day before,
next day further fall (10%)
May 2006 releases: on the day 5,6% rise
high of the day higher than day before,
next day even.
So based on this past it would be wise to get out the day before (being day before yesrday) and get back in yesterday or today. If 3SOF would have done that it there would not have been a 10% loss in one day. It does not make GIGM a bad share, it's just securing maximum profit ::).
Doing it this way does mean some work but not immense. I think it gives enough information to make a desicion and I think it could have given us bigger gains on may picks in the past. What do you think?
I hope to find some time in the weekend to do this at least for the current holding. Won't help for these earning releases but may be for the next and to start some discussion. Just imagine if every member does one stocks we'll have this knowledge on 10.000 stocks... :o :o :o
Amarens
Hi Amarens,
I find interesting your findings about GIGM trading action before and after the earning release.
I would be available to analyze a certain number of stocks, as you say it would be great if the community of 3SOF created groups of work and share the results each other.
A.
I thought and still strongly believe this selloff was unwarranted, but I must admit I am a bit perplexed as to why it did not regain some ground. I expected the stock to trade right back to the low $3.00 range... obviously that is not the case and it's hanging out $2.70 range on very low volume.
David - what are your thoughts? Do you expect this stock to rise back to the $3 range anytime soon or in your opinion will we bewaiting awhile?
I increased my position considerably ~ $2.55 and while I don't want it to drop, if it does would you suggest buying even more at lower levels for a better cost average? Do you cost average?
Dragon, why would you think it should recover to $3.00 right away, it will need some news or a good next earnings report for it to go back up. It will go up when they come thru with sales. Next earnings comes out in august.
Sales along with profits should start to rise in this quarter and revenues and profits will get a further boost in Q3 when Microsystem Srl financial information is consolidated.
Support is $2.50
If they rent/open two more offices in China then the stock may open next day above 3.5. Though I agree that stock has not bottomed yet. Have to get atleast 20 of us start putting market order at the same time. Once its above 3 then the momo crowd will be on the bandwagon.
Quote from: DragonAMG on May 23, 2007, 04:45:26 PM
I thought and still strongly believe this selloff was unwarranted, but I must admit I am a bit perplexed as to why it did not regain some ground. I expected the stock to trade right back to the low $3.00 range... obviously that is not the case and it's hanging out $2.70 range on very low volume.
David - what are your thoughts? Do you expect this stock to rise back to the $3 range anytime soon or in your opinion will we bewaiting awhile?
I increased my position considerably ~ $2.55 and while I don't want it to drop, if it does would you suggest buying even more at lower levels for a better cost average? Do you cost average?
Good news in a press release should start a nice rebound for us; look for it to bounce around 2.50 - 2.75 in the meantime. Their showcase at BlechExpo may spike some interest; it is being held between June 13th through 16th. Plenty of opportunity for a run-up before the next earnings release.
Cheers,
QuoteDoing it this way does mean some work but not immense. I think it gives enough information to make a desicion and I think it could have given us bigger gains on may picks in the past. What do you think?
Hi Amarens, I think the past is not indicative of the future. Recently people have tended to focus on the negative aspects of the results, but as the bull in the general market continues, that will probably change. People now see the glass as half empty, because they're still somewhat pessimistic. In the future I expect them to see the glass as half full and focus on the positive aspects of results, because, most results are a mix bag, they come with positive and negative information, investors decide which factors they give more weight according to their collective pessimism/optimism at the time.
Quote from: terainvestment on May 23, 2007, 09:17:15 AM
Hi Amarens,
I find interesting your findings about GIGM trading action before and after the earning release.
I would be available to analyze a certain number of stocks, as you say it would be great if the community of 3SOF created groups of work and share the results each other.
A.
That's a good idea terainvestment. We would need a large collection of data to make the study valid, or it could be misleading. It would be nice if we could collect 5 years or more of data (covering bull and bear markets), but that's really hard to do. I'll think about a way of organizing this, thanks for your availability.
QuoteI thought and still strongly believe this selloff was unwarranted, but I must admit I am a bit perplexed as to why it did not regain some ground. I expected the stock to trade right back to the low $3.00 range... obviously that is not the case and it's hanging out $2.70 range on very low volume.
As I look at the Yahoo board, it seems that almost nobody listened to the conference call (no mention of it), therefore everybody is focused on the Q1 2007 results, which were bad. I believe insiders should kick in and buy 10,000 shares or so to prevent the stock price from eroding more without a long term fundamental justification. I'm going to write an e-mail to the company making this suggestion.
QuoteDavid - what are your thoughts? Do you expect this stock to rise back to the $3 range anytime soon or in your opinion will we bewaiting awhile?
I remain very confident about the long term outlook (this quarter wasn't exactly a surprise for me, since I knew about seasonality), but I'm not sure about the short term. I would expect the stock to react to the $2.5 short term support and start moving back up to close the gap, but I'm not sure how misinformed investors will react over the short term.
QuoteI increased my position considerably ~ $2.55 and while I don't want it to drop, if it does would you suggest buying even more at lower levels for a better cost average? Do you cost average?
Due to my money management rules I never cost average, up or down. There's always the possibility of being wrong, and I like to manage risk by keeping the portfolio well diversified. If an holding starts losing weight in the portfolio I'm not going to increase it, and if it starts gaining weight I'm not going to reduce it either.
So, my advice is for you not to exceed a pre-determined percentage of your total equity in one single stock (unless that happens because the stock rises a lot), that would be too risky.
Quote from: yukiii on May 23, 2007, 05:13:40 PM
Dragon, why would you think it should recover to $3.00 right away, it will need some news or a good next earnings report for it to go back up. It will go up when they come thru with sales. Next earnings comes out in august.
Sales along with profits should start to rise in this quarter and revenues and profits will get a further boost in Q3 when Microsystem Srl financial information is consolidated.
Support is $2.50
I agree.
Quote from: stocky on May 23, 2007, 10:57:59 PM
If they rent/open two more offices in China then the stock may open next day above 3.5. Though I agree that stock has not bottomed yet. Have to get atleast 20 of us start putting market order at the same time. Once its above 3 then the momo crowd will be on the bandwagon.
Hi stocky :) I don't know if a repetition of that press release would have the desired effect. That "Cimatron Opens Two New Offices in China to Meet Growing Demand" press release seems to have been somewhat misleading, since there wasn't any revenue growth from the year ago levels and they did not mention China in the Q1 earnings release, not even at the conference call. Unless, since the opening of the two offices was in March 27th, that will only be reflected in Q2 results. Could be.
I think the thing that could provide a nice boost and support was if insiders kick in and buy some shares ... that would be super!
QuoteGood news in a press release should start a nice rebound for us; look for it to bounce around 2.50 - 2.75 in the meantime. Their showcase at BlechExpo may spike some interest; it is being held between June 13th through 16th. Plenty of opportunity for a run-up before the next earnings release.
Cheers,
Yes, that may spark some interest. In the meantime someone at Yahoo posted an interesting link about CIMT's operations in Italy:
Cimatron operations in Italy (http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=http://www.microsystem.it/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=2&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMicrosystem%2BSrl%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DGGGL,GGGL:2006-10,GGGL:en)
Ok, there are two things I need to do right away:
1) Write a post at the Yahoo message board with the conference call highlights and CIMT's story;
2) Write corporate insiders and suggest them to buy some shares in the open market and file a form 4 with the SEC.
Fundamentally nothing has changed, I'll keep holding CIMT.
Wrote the Yahoo post:
Conference call highlights (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=404&mid=404&tof=1&frt=2)
And sent an e-mail to Corporate Insiders (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/information.aspx?FolderID=18&lang=en):
Subject: From a Cimatron Investor
«Good morning, I'm David Randolph and a long term investor in CIMT's shares at the Nasdaq. I wrote a post at the Yahoo message board trying to educate people on your story:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=404&mid=404&tof=1&frt=2
But I'm afraid that won't be enough to prevent misinformed investors from exclusively focusing on Q1 results and take the stock much lower than current levels. Would you consider giving a sign to the market, by buying 10,000 shares in the open market (a slim investment at the current price) and filing a form 4 with the SEC?
I don't want to take more time away from you, continuation of an excellent work,
David Randolph
www.3stocksonfire.org»
I've done what I could do to prevent the stock from sliding over the short term. Of course, over the long term only fundamentals matter, and I remain confident on those.
Quote from: David Randolph on May 24, 2007, 04:36:07 AM
QuoteDoing it this way does mean some work but not immense. I think it gives enough information to make a desicion and I think it could have given us bigger gains on may picks in the past. What do you think?
Hi Amarens, I think the past is not indicative of the future. Recently people have tended to focus on the negative aspects of the results, but as the bull in the general market continues, that will probably change. People now see the glass as half empty, because they're still somewhat pessimistic. In the future I expect them to see the glass as half full and focus on the positive aspects of results, because, most results are a mix bag, they come with positive and negative information, investors decide which factors they give more weight according to their collective pessimism/optimism at the time.
Quote from: terainvestment on May 23, 2007, 09:17:15 AM
Hi Amarens,
I find interesting your findings about GIGM trading action before and after the earning release.
I would be available to analyze a certain number of stocks, as you say it would be great if the community of 3SOF created groups of work and share the results each other.
A.
That's a good idea terainvestment. We would need a large collection of data to make the study valid, or it could be misleading. It would be nice if we could collect 5 years or more of data (covering bull and bear markets), but that's really hard to do. I'll think about a way of organizing this, thanks for your availability.
David, I agree the past is no guarantee for the future, but I do think it gives us valuable information and I also think it adds value to 3SOF.
I'm sure more are willing to pitch in like terainvestment (thanks b.t.w. :)) I'm in!
How can we make a list of interesting stocks? And what information do we want? I think app. 50-100 stocks to start with. Open, close, high, low day before release (maybe two), day of realease and day after release (or two), percentage of change and this for 3-5 years. What do you think?
Amarens
Hi Amarens,
I think your plan is good, the point is: which stocks analyze?
I don't think large caps are good for our purposes: too many analysts follow them.
We could point our attention on stocks that are more volatile and with the larger spikes and pop-ups?
David what do you think?
Cheers,
A
If you ever wanted to buy CIMT...
This would be a good time!
Down almost 7%
next stop 200EMA at $2.23 ... :(
Look at the bright side, now it can be quadruple if Management executes :)
CIMT now pretty oversold, did hold support from the low of March 19th, though barely. The other slight positive I am seeing is that total volume for each of the last 4 down days still doenst surpass even one of the volume totals for the 3 big up days of March and early April. This would signal that there are at least some strong handed long term investors, maybe all of us here at 3SOF lol.
I guess my $2.50 buy wasnt the best that I could have done, but I am resolved to keep doing this long term investing experiment as tough as it can get if the stock goes lower. The thing that I keep reminding myself is that its not the path of the journey but the final goal and that long term capital gain.
Bought at $2.60 the other day, got stopped out today $2.50 Below support will see where this lands.....
This is tuff to stomach but I am definitely HOLDING with STRONG hands!!! I am in at $2.60, $3.61 and again at $2.55
Being that we are now down to $2.38, honestly I would like to see this thing selloff to the $1.25 so I can buy a crapload of shares, wait a couple quarters and buy a new 997 TT >:D
Quote from: DragonAMG on May 24, 2007, 04:38:25 PM
This is tuff to stomach but I am definitely HOLDING with STRONG hands!!! I am in at $2.60, $3.61 and again at $2.55
Being that we are now down to $2.38, honestly I would like to see this thing selloff to the $1.25 so I can buy a crapload of shares, wait a couple quarters and buy a new 997 TT >:D
Someone should call the company and talk to the president, and see how this quarter is doing.
Back in the 80's I used to call all these small companies and talk to the Pres, they use to give lots of information out, maybe not anymore, good old days
Quote from: yukiii on May 24, 2007, 04:46:57 PM
Quote from: DragonAMG on May 24, 2007, 04:38:25 PM
This is tuff to stomach but I am definitely HOLDING with STRONG hands!!! I am in at $2.60, $3.61 and again at $2.55
Being that we are now down to $2.38, honestly I would like to see this thing selloff to the $1.25 so I can buy a crapload of shares, wait a couple quarters and buy a new 997 TT >:D
Someone should call the company and talk to the president, and see how this quarter is doing.
Back in the 80's I used to call all these small companies and talk to the Pres, they use to give lots of information out, maybe not anymore, good old days
Good idea imo, you never know what kind of information you'll get, it's definately worth a try ...
Buying back some stock would friggin do it!
QuoteHi Amarens,
I think your plan is good, the point is: which stocks analyze?
I don't think large caps are good for our purposes: too many analysts follow them.
We could point our attention on stocks that are more volatile and with the larger spikes and pop-ups?
David what do you think?
Cheers,
A
Yes, which stocks to analyze ... we agree they should be at least 100, but which ones? Why not, for example, the 100 smallest companies of the Russel 2000 Index (by market cap)? If you and Amarens agree I'll post that list on the message board so we can organize the study and split the tasks.
QuoteSomeone should call the company and talk to the president, and see how this quarter is doing. Back in the 80's I used to call all these small companies and talk to the Pres, they use to give lots of information out, maybe not anymore, good old days
I don't think he would say anything, you know, these days a man can get arrested for sharing relevant information that is not publicly available. Today I asked the CEO to buy some shares in the open market, let's wait a few days to see if an insider buys anything or not (they always have two days to disclose that information).
The quarter seems to be doing well, look at Microsystem people working in Italy (http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=http://www.microsystem.it/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=2&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMicrosystem%2BSrl%26hl%3Den%26rls%3DGGGL,GGGL:2006-10,GGGL:en)
«Version 8 of Cimatron and is in distribution to all the customers second a calendar the
much more intense one regarding the previous years, with seminaries of technical presentation in numerous cities: the amount and the quality of the innovations are such to demand one entire day of deepening.»
Looking at CIMT at $2.38 ... well, I've been here before, a couple of months ago I was indeed losing 18% on CIMT like I am now. The way I see it the stock will fluctuate like hell, it can even go down to $2 or $1.5, I don't care. I see it at $24.38 three years from now (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). The things that are needed to achieve that are:
1) Zero dilution like it happened over the past 10 years
2) 20% average annual revenue growth (a good part of this is guaranteed by the Microsystem's acquisition)
3) Net profit margin should expand to 15%. If revenue grows costs won't rise at the same pace, because the product to be sold was already developed over the past few years. And it is a software product, the cost of an additional copy is less than $1.
4) The stock should trade at the industry average valuation.
I believe there's evidence to support that the company is fundamentally on track to meet all these 4 conditions. Therefore I'll let the short term decline unfold without paying much attention to it, I know it's very hard, but nobody ever said it would be easy (I hope).
But, congrats to buddjas1, for example, that saw a weak quarter and therefore sold (I also saw a weak quarter but I've held, it could be strong, and I can't focus on the long term and then sell because of a short term issue, I could never hold it for a big rise if I acted that way).
I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands.
Quote from: wxmang on May 24, 2007, 04:07:29 PM
Look at the bright side, now it can be quadruple if Management executes :)
Actually better than that if David's model holds true, this stock would have more than :oSEXTUPLED :o from today's close of 2.38 if we hit David's exit price of 15.67.
CIMT looks interesting but all the stocks that could nto withstand today's market onslaught seems bit scary at the moment. Interestingly, story stocks like ELN and MVIS held really good even though they had big run and no one pointed out that ppl needed excuse to lockin profits. This leads me to believe that big players can make or doom a stock. You just need to be on the right side if you are a short term trader. Notoriously the big money will find new house by the time we short-term retailers try to tip-toe the big players. In the perspective, David's long term approach looks practical. Can't we do away watching every single tick and leave high beta names in rest.
There's one bad thing for this stock which is : There's No Marketmaker for it :(
Also the correction started a few days ago but yestreday was ugly so that didn't help the stock to recover losses .
We could see a good sing today for a rebound .
Still holding with strong hands
Quote from: David Randolph on May 24, 2007, 06:01:38 PM
QuoteSomeone should call the company and talk to the president, and see how this quarter is doing. Back in the 80's I used to call all these small companies and talk to the Pres, they use to give lots of information out, maybe not anymore, good old days
I don't think he would say anything, you know, these days a man can get arrested for sharing relevant information that is not publicly available. Today I asked the CEO to buy some shares in the open market, let's wait a few days to see if an insider buys anything or not (they always have two days to disclose that information).
Hi David, I am curious how you communicated with the CEO to ask this. Did you send email, or were you able to talk on the phone? If you talked on the phone, did you learn or ask anything else?
Quote from: stocky on May 24, 2007, 11:55:30 PM
CIMT looks interesting but all the stocks that could nto withstand today's market onslaught seems bit scary at the moment. Interestingly, story stocks like ELN and MVIS held really good even though they had big run and no one pointed out that ppl needed excuse to lockin profits. This leads me to believe that big players can make or doom a stock. You just need to be on the right side if you are a short term trader. Notoriously the big money will find new house by the time we short-term retailers try to tip-toe the big players. In the perspective, David's long term approach looks practical. Can't we do away watching every single tick and leave high beta names in rest.
stocky, I'm sorry, I'm not sure I understood what you meant, can you please repeat in other words? Thanks.
QuoteThere's one bad thing for this stock which is : There's No Marketmaker for it :(
That's not bad, since it doesn't change the company's long term fundamental value. But I know what you mean.
QuoteHi David, I am curious how you communicated with the CEO to ask this. Did you send email, or were you able to talk on the phone? If you talked on the phone, did you learn or ask anything else?
Hi Tokyo, I've sent an e-mail, which you can read at the previous page of this thread. So far I didn't get any answer. And still no form 4. In fact, in two years insiders didn't buy or sell one single stock.
Cimatron thinks long term, look here:
Cimatron Donates 160 Seats of Leading CAD/CAM Software to the Education of the Future Generation (http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/5/prweb524111.htm)
Interesting, Cimatron's CFO is SILC's ex-CFO:
Cimatron's Skyrocketing Stock: Worth A Look (http://software.seekingalpha.com/article/29636)
I hope CIMT's future resembles SILC's.
Just out of curiosity, imagine you bought SILC three years ago, say, at $3. The stock is now 7 times higher than what it was back then. But, two months after buying at $3, you would be losing 46%. Did that mean anything for the long term? No. As SILC rose from $3 to $26, there were several 50% or more drawdowns. A short term trader may look very bright if he was able to escape a 50% drawdown, but three years down the road, did he have a 600% return on any stock, or on his portfolio for that matter? Not even 1 in 1000 chance if you ask me.
And how many times did SILC's EPS decline from the previous quarter while it was rising from $0.5 in 2003 to $26 about a month ago? I'll tell you: 7 times.
This doesn't mean that CIMT will have the same future as SILC in terms of share price, but it goes to show that 1 quarter or a 50% or more share price decline from the high doesn't mean anything for the long term fundamental picture of the company, or the long term outcome of an investment for that matter.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
I meant to say that though CIMT has great fundamentals but it seems manipulated. That may be the case with most non-liquid stocks. Just try selling few hundred at market and see what I mean. Neverthless, I am long CIMT and hope things workout. I still dont understand why the big-caps are outperforming the small caps. May be David has some observation about this.
Quote from: stocky on May 25, 2007, 11:04:27 PM
I meant to say that though CIMT has great fundamentals but it seems manipulated. That may be the case with most non-liquid stocks. Just try selling few hundred at market and see what I mean. Neverthless, I am long CIMT and hope things workout. I still dont understand why the big-caps are outperforming the small caps. May be David has some observation about this.
Small-caps have traditionally underperformed during an interest rate "tightening cycle."
"Historically, large-cap stocks outperformed, point-to-point, 80% of the time and by an average of over 300 basis points," or 3%. "Large-caps tend to outperform small-caps, and the leading sectors are the defensives--health care, utilities and [consumer] staples, adding to the fuel is the low USD helping the Large global companies.
Thanks and applaud yukii that helps.
QuoteI meant to say that though CIMT has great fundamentals but it seems manipulated. That may be the case with most non-liquid stocks. Just try selling few hundred at market and see what I mean.
I think CIMT is more ignored than manipulated stocky.
QuoteNeverthless, I am long CIMT and hope things workout.
Me too.
QuoteI still dont understand why the big-caps are outperforming the small caps. May be David has some observation about this.
I don't look to understand or even consider that. I want to focus on company by company, individual characteristics and fundamentals. If CIMT starts selling more and profiting more the stock will go up, regardless of what small caps in general are doing. So, why even bother studying macro trends? The problem with macro trends and capital allocation is that it keeps changing: "small caps are outperforming, let me buy small caps. Wait a minute, this week the S&P 500 rose more than the Russel 2000, let me shift to large caps. Hmmm, the FED raised rates again, perhaps I should just get out of all stocks. But the USD is going down, that should be good for exporters. However, there are signs the Japanese and European economies still aren't strong enough to support our exports, let me get out of exporters. Let me jump into gold stocks instead, inflation is around the corner ..." ... and on, and on.
CIMT is suffering from a "worse than expected quarter". In my view people are overreacting and looking through the review mirror, instead of looking ahead. As I look ahead, I see CIMT's fundamentals improving and a much higher stock price, because it is such a small cap technical software global company.
Today's market action felt like a bottom was being made, but I know I'll always feel that way about CIMT.
I'll keep on holding CIMT.
CIMT is being punished way more than what it deserves for a weak Q1 2007. Comparisons going forward will probably be more favorable, since in Q2 2006 the company earned just $18 K and in Q3 2006 it even lost ($281 K).
So, just imagine that CIMT will earn, say, $500 K in Q2 2007, it will then be able to make a "Net Income rose 28 fold from the year ago level" press release, and then the stock will jump 500% in one day LOL
It would be ridiculous, but not more ridiculous than the 38% decline we've had due to poor Q1 results, when informed people were already forecasting a weak quarter due to seasonality. Another issue that probably affected Q1 earnings was the fact that Cimatron E version 8 was coming, so prospective buyers probably opted to wait for the new version instead of buying version 7. This happens with cars too, but even more with software. Who went to buy Windows XP one month before Vista's launch? Probably not many people.
The future looks bright for CIMT, still the most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio (even more so after the recent decline), I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.
There was some talk on the yahoo board that the Cimatron E version 8 can't run on Windows Vista, later other people said that competitors have the same 'problem' so I hope they are right and that this doesn't become a big issue for the company!
Quote from: Se7en on May 30, 2007, 05:19:37 PM
There was some talk on the yahoo board that the Cimatron E version 8 can't run on Windows Vista, later other people said that competitors have the same 'problem' so I hope they are right and that this doesn't become a big issue for the company!
I used to work in the semiconductor capital equipment field, and we had to do major software releases for our tools. Major effort was required to port a software release from entirely different operating systems (i.e. Linux to Windows), but even then it was doable and we did it as necessary.
Of much less difficulty was the porting of software from different versions of Windows (say windows server 2000 to windows XP or something like that). We never looked to be exactly on time with compatibility to the newest operating system because there were generally bugs and we never felt it was our responsibility to coincide exactly with the release of a new operating system. I believe it would be similar for CIMT wrt Vista.
My take is that it is a non-issue currently (assuming its true in the first place), and furthermore if it is true it is not likely a permanent issue, but rather one that can be easily fixed in a timeframe that would correspond to customer demand for Vista compatibility (which currently would be likely very low).
I havent looked at the Yahoo boards, but I wonder if people there are trying to scare people into selling them their shares cheaper with this kind of argument.
We touched the 200 ema and the support held. The RSI indicates it's oversold so hopefully the downturn is over and we start to head higher here:
Yes it looks very nice and should close above 2.36 today :)
It will be very bullish if it close above 2.46 today ... we reached a bottom here
cimt should bounce soon from this level if not today...
bought the first time 2.43 now
We had a bit of a bounce in CIMT today. As I look ahead into Q2 earnings, the comparison will probably be favorable, since CIMT had $5.044 M in revenue and just $18 K in net income in Q2 2006. If the company earns the same it did in Q1 2007, that is, $181 K (which was viewed as a big disappointment), that's going to be ten times more than in the year ago quarter.
Also, in Q2, the company released CimatronE version 8.0, which seems to have been very well received by the market. This new version doubled the market reach of the company, since now it has a die making application (it didn't have this before). The company's marketing efforts were expanded to levels never experienced in the past.
So, everything looks set for a blowout 2nd quarter, perhaps even better than Q4 2006. The stock may very well rest around current levels for months to come, the only thing I focus on is the long term potential of this micro cap. And that seems huge.
I'll continue holding CIMT with strong hands.
Fundamentally there wasn't anything new, but CIMT recovered some more ground, as it was up 2.39% yesterday.
As we've been discussing, the next quarter will probably bring good news and a big rally, since the company earned just $18 K in Q2 2006. This will be an easy to beat number.
But, even if there's no growth and the next two quarters resemble the last two, CIMT will earn $0.186 per share, which means that at the current market price it is trading at about 13.8 times earnings, while the Technical & System Software industry trades at 36 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT).
You can see a recent CNBC video on Cimatron at the following link: Cimatron in the News (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=70&lang=en) (it takes some time to download)
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Hi David,
Do you know when the CNBC video was released?
It is hard to plot a timeline on their "news".
Quote from: Houlahan on June 03, 2007, 09:29:20 PM
Hi David,
Do you know when the CNBC video was released?
It is hard to plot a timeline on their "news".
I don't know the specific date Houlahan, but it isn't an old video, I guess it is about one week old.
Nothing new on the fundamental or technical side today for CIMT. Over the medium term I expect the stock to rally hard on Q2 results, because the comparison will probably be very favorable, since the company earned just $18 K in Q2 2006. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 04, 2007, 05:38:51 PM
Nothing new on the fundamental or technical side today for CIMT. Over the medium term I expect the stock to rally hard on Q2 results, because the comparison will probably be very favorable, since the company earned just $18 K in Q2 2006. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Yes David this one of the things that make me feel good with this stock even thought it declined almost 40% since the Q1 result ..
CIMT lost its appeal after the weak Q1 numbers. But I already knew the quarter was going to be soft, due to seasonality (but not this soft, I expected growth from the year ago levels).
The press releases we've had, saying positive things about Cimatron version 8 only came out late in the quarter, the product itself was only released in March 15, so there wasn't any significant effect in Q1. Maybe there was even a delay of orders because the new product was coming out.
I expect a stronger 2nd quarter and a favorable comparison. And in Q3, with CIMT consolidating Microsystems, revenue will grow by 40% and profits will grow too, since CIMT said Microsystems is profitable.
So, the future is bright. I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Hi david.
What do you say is a good entry point to CIMT in the near future?
Or that you recommend not to enter right now?
thanks,
Aviv
Quote from: avivwiz on June 06, 2007, 01:07:52 PM
Hi david.
What do you say is a good entry point to CIMT in the near future?
Or that you recommend not to enter right now?
thanks,
Aviv
Hi Aviv, my take is the stock is at its lows, because we've already had the seasonally weak quarter, and going forward comparisons will be favorable, as I've been writing. Also, in Q3 revenue and EPS will jump due to the Microsystems acquisition and consolidation. I don't see much risk buying around current levels and the future looks bright.
Technically nothing changed. Also no news out. I'll keep holding CIMT.
I've been reading several articles about CIMT over the internet, but didn't find anything new. The company is now a $19.35 M market cap and I expect it to grow, organically and through acquisitions (like the Microsystem's acquisition).
I'll keep holding CIMT.
what is going on today guys, I didn't see any news. :o
Open 2.42
Previous Close 2.47
Day's Range 2.33 - 2.51
52 - Week Range 1.12 - 4.7285
8/17/06 - 4/16/07
Avg Volume (10 days) 41,735
Price / Earnings (TTM) 44.0x
Earnings Per Share (TTM) 0.053
Market Cap 18.6 M
Shares Outstanding 8.0 M
Beta 0.7
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Declared Dividend 0.00
Ex-Dividend Date 1/13/99
Dividend Payable Date 2/9/99
NASDAQ Real time Quote
Last Trade as of 2:03 PM ET 6/8/07Show ECN Quote
CIMT will be stuck in a trading range $2.33 - 2.50 till there is some news.
Quotewhat is going on today guys, I didn't see any news. :o
Nothing's going on, it seems like the stock is establishing a range between $2.25 and $2.59, as it waits for the 200 days SMA (blue on the chart). Unfortunately the bottoming process will take time. True bullish catalysts will probably happen just when the company reports Q2 results (comparison will probably be favorable) and Q3 results (Microstrategy contribution will increase the top and bottom line).
I've listened to the 1st quarter conference call again:
CIMT's 1st quarter conference call (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en)
To make sure I heard right the first time. I have no doubts now, the CimatronE version 8 product has a new application, the die design application, that opens a whole new market for the company. The CEO said he expects "revenues from this market to grow rapidly" and that to make "significant contributions to the overall company's revenue growth over the next few quarters".
This is important for Q2 numbers. If CIMT posts revenue growth and a nice profit in Q2, comparison will be quite favorable, since the company had net income of just $18 K in Q2 2006.
As for Q3, there will be growth for sure, since it will consolidate Microsystem, bringing more than $2 M additional revenues per quarter. He also said Microsystem was profitable in 2006 after a two years restructuring and that he expects the company to remain profitable, therefore adding to CIMT's bottom line starting in Q3 2007. Microsystem isn't just a Cimatron distributor, it sells other products that will start being sold throughout the other subsidiaries.
I have little doubts that Q2 and Q3 will be much better than Q1 and that they'll be much better than the year ago period.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
David - it's really a shame that you adhere to you money management rules of not dollar cost averaging... I know this is tremendously risky, but CIMT is about 15% of my portfolio and will definitely add another 5-10% if this goes below $2.00/share.
Unless we hear negative news, there are very low possibilities this stock
hits $2. The 200 EMA is at 2.25 and currently trading low volumes
Quote from: DragonAMG on June 09, 2007, 11:37:10 AM
David - it's really a shame that you adhere to you money management rules of not dollar cost averaging... I know this is tremendously risky, but CIMT is about 15% of my portfolio and will definitely add another 5-10% if this goes below $2.00/share.
David has the responsibility of running a portfolio for many subsrcibers and that is a risk that David has to take into account. Maybe if he were just running his own portfolio for himself, he would take more risks. You are free to take the risks you want with your portfolio. You are not obligated to follow David's risk factors in your trading
QuoteMaybe if he were just running his own portfolio for himself, he would take more risks.
I wouldn't. But you're right about everything else echo.
Nothing new for CIMT yesterday, the stock is building a base between $2.25 and $2.59.
News!
Cimatron 5-Axis Helps Tool Maker Reduce use of Electrodes by Over 30%
Tuesday June 12, 9:07 am ET
Giebeler GmbH Uses Cimatron to Accelerate Production Cycles and Keep up With Customer Demand
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, June 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that Giebeler GmbH, a tool maker based in Eschenburg-Wissenbach, Germany, is reporting significant time savings and productivity gains with the use of Cimatron's 5-axis solution. A major portion of these productivity gains results from reduction in the use of time-consuming Electric Discharge Machine (EDM) processes.
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20070612/261120 )
"Thanks to the Cimatron 5-Axis solution, we use 30-40% less electrodes than we used in the past," says Markus Noll, Technical Director at Giebeler GmbH. "We can now use milling in places that previously required EDM processing; and when we do use EDM we can drastically reduce the number of electrodes."
"For instance," explains Noll, "an aluminum die-cast mirror base that used to require 8 single electrodes with 3-axis production is replaced today by a single graphite electrode milled on a 5-axis machine." The streamlined process reduces overall design and production times, as well as the material costs associated with the manufacturing of the electrodes. According to Noll, it also helps improve product quality: "Since we are producing only a single electrode, we can minimize the number of tolerances and the potential for errors."
Marco Wolff, manager of the CAD/CAM service at Giebeler, adds: "With 5-axis machines, we can use small cutters of just 0.3mm with slim projecting holders to work out the typical deep contours. Cimatron 5-Axis Production automatically calculates a collision-free position for the tools and tool holders. We use the software to simulate tool motion and material removal on the screen before we start milling. The simulation is particularly important with the smaller cutters and smooth recesses, where the die can easily break. Furthermore, the simulation gives us a quick and reliable read to avoid a situation where some areas might be missed if too large of a tool were selected."
Using the 5-Axis technology helps Giebeler keep pace with the increasing demands of its customers. Says Wolff: "The design and interior of mirrors and lights, for example, have considerably changed in the past few years. Today, the outlines are divided into tiny parts, which are geometrically demanding due to their unique design characteristics and extremely tight tolerances. In the past, we needed up to 20 individual electrodes for some filigree parts. Nowadays, we can collapse multiple different geometries into a single one, which is only possible using 5-axis machines."
"Thanks to 5-axis technology, we have become more flexible in our manufacturing methods. The quick turnaround times which we are achieving these days on very complex products could not be realized without the use of 5-axis technology," confirms Noll.
Given the tremendous benefits realized, Giebeler has been continuously expanding the use of 5-axis technology. Today, the company operates a modern machine park with six 5-axis machines, and every new machine purchased by the company is 5-axis capable.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070612/uktu032.html?.v=6 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070612/uktu032.html?.v=6)
Thanks for posting the news Se7en :)
• Cimatron 5-Axis Helps Tool Maker Reduce use of Electrodes by Over 30% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070612/uktu032.html?.v=6)
PR Newswire (Tue 9:07am)
This was more of a promotional press release than news for investors, I believe. Not enough to bring in some buyers. Anyway, I wouldn't mind to see CIMT resting around current levels on low volume. I see two "better than expected" quarters ahead and a bright future for this micro cap, so I'll keep holding the stock.
nice link:
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt
cheers
O.
Quote from: la-onda on June 13, 2007, 11:01:42 AM
nice link:
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt
cheers
O.
Yes, nice link la-onda, thanks for sharing :)
CIMT is falling asleep between $2.25 and $2.59. I hope the stock doesn't break down below this tight trading range, so that when the good news I expect hits the wires the stock runs from a not so low level.
We've already discussed all fundamentals and what to expect over the next few quarters and over the long term from CIMT. Patience is key here. I'll keep holding CIMT.
Q2 earnings cannot come soon enough :-\
QuoteI hope the stock doesn't break down below this tight trading range, so that when the good news I expect hits the wires the stock runs from a not so low level.
Unfortunately "hopping" doesn't work in the stock market. Damn CIMT had to break the trading range on the downside, damaging the Main's performance.
Technically this was negative, it may mean further downside, perhaps to the 200 days SMA, coming up at $1.98 now. Or else the stock will claw back up and close back above $2.25, that would mean the technical breakdown was a false technical signal, which often happens.
Fundamentally CIMT is now a $17.5 M market cap company with expected 2007 revenues of roughly $27 M (counting with the $5 M or so contribution from MicroStrategy, starting in Q3). The Price to Sales Ratio is about 0.65. In terms of earnings, the company had EPS of $0.093 over the last two quarters, if the next two resemble the past two, it will earn $0.186 in the 12 month period, so the expected Price to Earnings Ratio is about 11.8. This is too low, since the Technical & System Software industry (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=cimt) trades at roughly 36 times earnings.
Moreover, the CEO said he expects strong revenue growth from the company's new die design application. Also Microstrategy consolidation will contribute to top and bottom line results. So probably the next two quarters will be better than the last two, and that will make CIMT even more cheap if the current stock price is maintained.
You know what? What happened today has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals in my view. It's just that nobody is looking at the future and nobody listened to the conference call. CIMT can even go down another 10%, that will be meaningless when the news hits the press and the stock rises 100 or 200% in one day.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Conflict grazes Israeli stocks
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm
M.
David - do you see this trading down to $1.50 before the we get positive news? If that happens would you buy more, sell or just simply hold?
Quote from: M0NEY on June 14, 2007, 05:24:01 PM
Conflict grazes Israeli stocks
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm
M.
It's very old news !
look at the date it's July 18 -2006 ???
Quote from: M0NEY on June 14, 2007, 05:24:01 PM
Conflict grazes Israeli stocks
http://www.usatoday.com/money/world/2006-07-18-israeli-stocks-usat_x.htm
M.
As the article says, CIMT is one of those companies with operations around the World, with Israel representing just about 8% of the company's revenues. I don't think the conflict in Israel impacted CIMT today. For example, SILC and ALDN are also Israeli companies and they rose today.
Thanks for the article Money :)
Quote from: DragonAMG on June 14, 2007, 05:34:32 PM
David - do you see this trading down to $1.50 before the we get positive news?
I don't see that happening, because the stock is already too cheap. But it is possible, everything is possible in the stock market.
QuoteIf that happens would you buy more, sell or just simply hold?
Simply hold. But I don't think that's going to happen.
I see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down. I believe you're starting to see the value of diversification (at least some diversification), and not holding too much of your capital in one single stock, because unfortunately there are no 100% sure things in the stock market :-\
I think my bull case is strong enough to keep holding CIMT despite the adversity, but I recognize that if I had, say, 20% of my money in CIMT I would definitely start having second and third thoughts and wouldn't be able to hold, even though the fundamental landscape and future expectations are quite positive.
The problem with having a higher than normal weight in one single stock is that our hands get weaker and weaker ... even small fluctuations have a big emotional impact, because every few % change means so much to us.
I never lost more than 2% of equity of the Main Portfolio in one single trade, but one thing I absolutely make sure: I will never lose more than 6.66% of total equity in one single stock, that's the maximum possible loss, in the worst case scenario that the company goes bankrupt and shares are delisted overnight.
Anyway, I wouldn't be alarmed by CIMT's long term prospects, the company has an healthy balance sheet and just bought $600 K of another company.
Well, this is a tough job, I know exactly how you feel, but unfortunately I can't push the stock back up or never be wrong. The only way I can help you (and me, and others), is to show you the value of diversification and risk control strategies.
Good luck :)
QuoteI see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down.
overweighted, YES... worried, NO. I actually wouldn't mind seeing this going down to $1.50 on low volume because I would like to triple up my investment in CIMT (current cost average is $2.85).
Of the stocks in the portfolio, I definitely think this stock has the most potential... especially now that it has gone down so much. I would very much like to see this stock in the $6-7 range by the end of the year (I think that is a very strong possibility) and just want make sure I have a nice chunk of shares when that happens.
SILC on the other hand... I was definitely overweighted.
Quote from: DragonAMG on June 14, 2007, 07:01:35 PM
QuoteI see you're getting a bit nervous about CIMT DragonAMG, perhaps that's because you're overweight the stock and it is going down.
overweighted, YES... worried, NO. I actually wouldn't mind seeing this going down to $1.50 on low volume because I would like to triple up my investment in CIMT (current cost average is $2.85).
SILC on the other hand... I was definitely overweighted.
Ok DragonAMG, I respect your dollar cost averaging strategy. Ahh, I'm going to sleep so much better now, after seeing Dr. House (it helps disconnecting from the stock market, a bit of TV) and your cool response ... thanks, see you tomorrow.
this is from yesterday according to Reuters
"Short Interest
Month Shares %outstanding Percent of Float Days to cover
May 07 53,000 .66 1.96 .67
April 34,000 .43 1.26 .21
March 13,000 .16 0.48 .12
February 6,000 .08 0.22 3.00"
QuoteTechnically this was negative, it may mean further downside, perhaps to the 200 days SMA, coming up at $1.98 now. Or else the stock will claw back up and close back above $2.25, that would mean the technical breakdown was a false technical signal, which often happens.
It seems like it happened again, fortunately Thursday's close was a false technical signal, since the stock closed back up above the $2.25 level on Friday.
The expectation of revenue growth going forward comes primarily from two sources:
1) The new die design application. Check the specifics of the product: Progressive DieDesign (http://www.cimatron.com/NA/product.aspx?FolderID=2689&docID=8788&lang=en). And here's the software selling at Stampers Store, for example (http://www.stampersstore.com/production_aids/die_design_software.htm).
2) The Microstrategy acquisition and consolidation starting in Q3, since that company had $10.5 M in revenue in 2006.
The Microstrategy acquisition alone will make CIMT's revenues grow roughly 50%. I have 20% a year, for the next three years, in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main). 20% a year over three years means 72.8% growth. 50% is in the pocket already, 22.8 percentage points to go.
But there's another issue, and that's net profit margin expansion to 15%. I believe Microstrategy is a low margin business, since it is a distributor, mainly of Cimatron's products. It's strange how a software company can't expand its net profit margin ... maybe in the future, with the cost of developing the DieDesign application and CimatronE version 8 behind us, there will be a margin expansion.
Certainly the future looks better than the past, much better ... I'll keep holding CIMT.
On the monthly chart we can see a long white candle and we reached the middle of it which was 2.24 and it closed above of it :)
are we done ? I think the worst have been already done and we are expecting better movement for the stock to the up side ;D
I'm wating for the current monthly candle to be closed white or unchanged to start the bullish way ..
Who knows ? we might see another long white candle soon ;)
Nice monthly chart garoh :)
CIMT is back into its "normal" trading range, between $2.25 and $2.59. There was a false bearish technical signal, which is a positive short term technical development.
Longer term, Q2 can produce a bombastic press release, because net income in Q2 2006 was just $18 K and probably the company is benefiting from its new die design application. And Q3 will reflect the consolidation of Microstrategy's revenues and profits.
So, nothing else to do but to keep on holding CIMT.
no trading volume on CIMT today...good or bad sign?
Quote from: terainvestment on June 19, 2007, 10:45:54 AM
no trading volume on CIMT today...good or bad sign?
Neutral sign, just the way this stock trades sometimes. David has mentioned there could be days where no shares are traded, but it won't make a difference to the long term performance of the stock.
Quote from: terainvestment on June 19, 2007, 10:45:54 AM
no trading volume on CIMT today...good or bad sign?
No sign. There was a small gap opened between $2.3 and $2.35. I guess that gap will be closed today, as the stock recovers from the lower open. But we need to focus on long term fundamentals if we want to strengthen our hands.
Unfortunately we don't get any clues of the future from what a stock does in any given day.
Thanks for your comment terainvestment :)
Quote from: tokyopua on June 19, 2007, 11:11:28 AM
Quote from: terainvestment on June 19, 2007, 10:45:54 AM
no trading volume on CIMT today...good or bad sign?
Neutral sign, just the way this stock trades sometimes. David has mentioned there could be days where no shares are traded, but it won't make a difference to the long term performance of the stock.
Thanks Tokyo, that's exactly it.
The stock recovered a bit of ground after that 6% fall at the open, closing at $2.33. No news out today. I'll keep holding CIMT, as the stock goes through this bottoming process.
CIMT's volume is drying. It's better that way. There's no catalyst to move it decisively higher at this moment, and volume probably would mean just panic selling. I prefer a rounding bottom, with low volume at the center and expanding volume at the right wing of the technical formation.
Anyway, CIMT is a software company selling below on year revenues. The company just delivered two profitable quarters and announced an accretive acquisition. Also, it developed a software product that doubles its market potential, the progressive die design tool.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Does anyone know when they consolidate Microsystem Srl in the 3rd quarter, will this be positive or negative to the bottom line. I know they had 10mil in rev but do they have any debt CIMT is taking on.
Are they earning Money?
Quote from: yukiii on June 20, 2007, 05:31:54 PM
Does anyone know when they consolidate Microsystem Srl in the 3rd quarter, will this be positive or negative to the bottom line. I know they had 10mil in rev but do they have any debt CIMT is taking on.
Are they earning Money?
Yes, Microsystem was profitable in 2006 and the CEO said he expects the company to remain profitable, and therefore contribute positively to CIMT's earnings starting in Q3 2007. The only problem is that probably Microstrategy is a low margin business. Check the conference call:
http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en
Quote from: David Randolph on June 20, 2007, 05:40:31 PM
Quote from: yukiii on June 20, 2007, 05:31:54 PM
Does anyone know when they consolidate Microsystem Srl in the 3rd quarter, will this be positive or negative to the bottom line. I know they had 10mil in rev but do they have any debt CIMT is taking on.
Are they earning Money?
Yes, Microsystem was profitable in 2006 and the CEO said he expects the company to remain profitable, and therefore contribute positively to CIMT's earnings starting in Q3 2007. The only problem is that probably Microstrategy is a low margin business. Check the conference call:
http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en
Was just profitable 2006..... and should be profitable 2007
CIMT will take on all Microsystems DEBT and EXpenses. I am getting a bad feeling next quarter will be no so good. Oh well just watching this....
I noticed most of the companies in your portfolio are (2)Chinese, (1)Taiwan, (1)Bermuda or( 3)Israel (5) US ( 1) Canada
I think you have to many from Israel you never know what they will report. I remember SILC one time was suppose to have like .10 for the quarter and came out with a minus .35.
Small Chinese stocks never get full value. Just something to think about......
QuoteCIMT will take on all Microsystems DEBT and EXpenses.
What ??? CIMT is buying a company and getting its debt and expenses? I thought they would get just its assets and profits ;D
David, can we find somewhere more info about Microsystems, we know they are profitable but it would be nice to have all the numbers or is that not possible?!
Btw, did you get an answer to your email from a few weeks ago?
I am italian and MicroSystem S.r.l. is an italian private company.
Here in Italy you can read all the P&L statement, balance sheets, cash-flows etc.
You can read and know everything here, even if the company is private (despite US where is not possible).
What you need is buying the info from Dub &Bradstreet: www.dnb.com
Hope this helps,
Andrea
Thx for the info terainvestment, I think I'm gonna skip on it because the reports are very expensive! :o
Well, I have written an e/m to MicroSystem asking the balance sheets.
If they send it to me (they should), i will share the info with you guys.
Cheers from sunny Milan,
Andrea
Thank you Andrea. Applaud for your initiative.
Quote from: terainvestment on June 21, 2007, 10:49:26 AM
Well, I have written an e/m to MicroSystem asking the balance sheets.
If they send it to me (they should), i will share the info with you guys.
Cheers from sunny Milan,
Andrea
Thanks a lot for your help Andrea :)
I hope you're a fan of Figo and Rui Costa :)
Anyway, the 2006 balance sheet and income statement from Microstrategy would be great information ... if they were to send them to you ... hmmm, but wait a minute, probably because Microstrategy is being acquired by CIMT, which is a publicly traded company, they won't share the numbers. The Dun & Bradstreet database would be great, but it isn't economically viable to buy the whole database to know about just one company.
But let me applaud you for the initiative :)
CIMT started well in the morning, but fizzled by the end of the session. The 200 days SMA is getting closer now, at $2. Believe me, I've seen many charts where something like this happens, a big bull run, then a pullback all the way down to the 200 days moving average and then the real thing! If my fundamental perspective is correct, this whole up and down movement will be almost imperceptible three years from now.
Check this example:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38291;image)
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38292;image)
Well, maybe not the best example ... I'll look for more dramatic ones for the next updates.
What I meant to show with this example was that CIMT's ups and downs over the medium term chart don't tell us much about the future.
Looking at the fundamentals, do I see any dilution? No, it never happened in 8 years of history since the company is publicly traded. Do I see revenues rising 20% a year going forward? Sure, Microstrategy's acquisition will make, by itself, revenues grow by roughly 50%. The new die design application also doubles the market reach of CIMT. And what about net profit margin, is it possible to be 15%? I don't see why not, the company sells software at a very high price. The software was already developed. Each new copy costs less than a dollar. Can CIMT trade at 35 times earnings in the future? Yes it can, because on average, companies that belong to the same industry group, the technical software systems, trade at 35 times earnings.
So, can CIMT rise 500% or more over the next three years? Yes it can. It wouldn't be the first, or the last stock to do it.
I'll keep holding CIMT with strong hands.
Quote from: Se7en on June 21, 2007, 08:33:57 AM
David, can we find somewhere more info about Microsystems, we know they are profitable but it would be nice to have all the numbers or is that not possible?!
Btw, did you get an answer to your email from a few weeks ago?
No, no answer to my e-mail. And no insiders buying either.
The stock almost touched its 200 days moving average today.
I'll keep bringing more examples of stocks that went up a lot, then down to where they came from and a few years later are 10 bags or more above where all this action happened. Take the following chart for example:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38344;image)
The stock went up more than 150%, then a bad quarter and boom, down to values below where it all started. Can you imagine which stock is this, trading at $0.80 back then?
It's GIGM :o
So, that horrible earnings release that made the stock gap down 76% ... actually didn't mean much for the future.
CIMT is just a $17.76 M market cap company now. It sells its products in over 35 countries. What will it take to make it worth $100 M? Not much, I believe ... just some revenue growth and a few consecutive quarters of positive and growing EPS. I think the company put itself in a position for this to happen, let's see if they can execute.
Even considering that CIMT could eventually go to zero (I don't see it as possible, but for the argument's sake), the potential reward is so high that I believe it is worth the investment (of course, using a diversified strategy as the Main does).
I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 22, 2007, 05:10:03 PM
I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.
Sounds like an unhealthy obsession ;D
Really though, I hope Cimatron can produce the results necessary for some positive price movement though it may not happen within the time frame we would like it to. In the meantime, the irresolute and poorly diversified CIMT shareholder will have some rough days.
As a side note, the whole "strong hands" / "weak hands" terminology seems terribly biased in implying that the "weak hands" have a character flaw and should have held out for something better. As we all know, sometimes the weak hands make the optimal move by selling near the top or cutting their losses before things get worse.
Applause to David for his tenacity. I think we're all striving to become disciplined and unbiased investors whose actions are ruled by logic and reality.
QuoteAs a side note, the whole "strong hands" / "weak hands" terminology seems terribly biased in implying that the "weak hands" have a character flaw and should have held out for something better. As we all know, sometimes the weak hands make the optimal move by selling near the top or cutting their losses before things get worse.
Hi Kublakhan, thanks for your message. What "weak hands" means is people that hold a stock without knowing why (at least not very well), and therefore can be shaken out by an adverse market movement. Their confidence depends on what the market does on any given day, instead of the fundamentals of the company.
What I've been trying to demonstrate is that what a stock does on any given day or set of days isn't indicative of where the stock will be three years from now. Unfortunately the path to a higher price, especially on micro cap, thinly traded stocks like CIMT, isn't linear. You don't get daily reassurance that what you're doing is right.
QuoteApplause to David for his tenacity. I think we're all striving to become disciplined and unbiased investors whose actions are ruled by logic and reality.
Thanks Kublakhan, that's what I'm doing, becoming more disciplined, despite doing it in a strange way for several people (and for myself too a few years ago).
The fundamental reasons that led me to invest in CIMT are even more evident now than what they were when I bought the stock at $2.90. I'm more certain of the future now than initially, because I see more than half of my projected revenue growth as "in the pocket".
Have a nice weekend :)
Quote from: David Randolph on June 22, 2007, 05:10:03 PM
I'll keep holding CIMT, nothing will make me sell this stock.
You mean nothing? even CIMT goes down to $0.80 cents like GIGM does way back in early 2002?
QuoteYou mean nothing? even CIMT goes down to $0.80 cents like GIGM does way back in early 2002?
As with GIGM, it wouldn't be nice to sell the stock at $0.80 with a huge percentage loss and then watch it go to $15 as fundamentals pointed all along.
At $0.8 CIMT would represent a negligible part of the portfolio, I would keep the stock if that were to happen. As I'll keep it if it goes to $5 overnight.
I see 0% dilution, 20% revenue growth, 15% net profit margin and 35 times earnings multiple and that means $24.45 price per share three years from now. The stock going up or down 50% from the current point doesn't mean anything for this outcome, as it happened with GIGM.
I noticed no one at the company owns any shares?
The value of CIMT at this moment is about $2.00.
If they have a good 2nd and 3rd quarter Then $3.00
If they return to profits like in the 2006 4th quarter then over $4.00
If the next quarter is worse then the first, then under $2.00
The main point is anyone buying in the low $2 should be ok.
This company has pretty much had the same revenues for the past 3 years, and there 4th quarter is usaully there best.
(As always, the seasonality of our business makes it
difficult to predict our future results. However, with industry-leading products,
thousands of satisfied customers, a great team and a streamlined organization, we
are optimistic regarding our long-term prospects.")
Don't know why everyone is so excited about this tiny company with 20 millions sales. Its a gamble on the next quarter.
Just watching this one.
Quote from: yukiii on June 23, 2007, 05:07:24 PM
I noticed no one at the company owns any shares? Where is there faith in the company.
Hello Yukiii, I like some of your posts, but I also think some of your posts are less than interesting. No worries there I am able to filter out the interesting from the other stuff.
This recent post of yours requires filtering big time. Your statment re ownership is totally incorrect. CIMT key directors (via 2 companies Koonras and DBSI) own 66% of CIMT share capital. It is clearly stated in the most recent 20F.
Anyways I haven't posted for a long time as I am busy elsewhere, but I still have a look at what's going on.
Cheers
Quote from: AussieTrader on June 24, 2007, 02:09:51 AM
Quote from: yukiii on June 23, 2007, 05:07:24 PM
I noticed no one at the company owns any shares? Where is there faith in the company.
Hello Yukiii, I like some of your posts, but I also think some of your posts are less than interesting. No worries there I am able to filter out the interesting from the other stuff.
This recent post of yours requires filtering big time. Your statment re ownership is totally incorrect. CIMT key directors (via 2 companies Koonras and DBSI) own 66% of CIMT share capital. It is clearly stated in the most recent 20F.
Anyways I haven't posted for a long time as I am busy elsewhere, but I still have a look at what's going on.
Cheers
Thanks for the info, I guess if I had money in this I would have known that.
Just did some quick research today before I went to the beach.
Messrs. Ben Shalom, Ben Shaoul, Dotan and Lalo may be deemed to have beneficial ownership of an aggregate of 5,133,710 of our shares, representing 65.5% of our issued and outstanding capital share, by virtue of their positions with Polar and DBSI and the voting agreement between Koonras and DBSI described elsewhere in this report.
QuoteMessrs. Ben Shalom, Ben Shaoul, Dotan and Lalo may be deemed to have beneficial ownership of an aggregate of 5,133,710 of our shares, representing 65.5% of our issued and outstanding capital share, by virtue of their positions with Polar and DBSI and the voting agreement between Koonras and DBSI described elsewhere in this report.
Yes, insiders own the majority of CIMT. I won't sell CIMT whatever happens to the share price, because the potential far outweighs the risk in my opinion.
Nothing new today from a technical or fundamental standpoint. I'll keep holding CIMT.
FYI
Shlomo Greenberg submits: Technical design software developer Cimatron Technologies (Nasdaq: CIMT) got a real jolt when in Monday's session, its volume rocketed 1,000 fold from 1,400 to 1.4 million shares and the stock, which reached $3.40, 145% higher than its level the day before, ended the session at $3.04, reflecting a 117% increase. Tuesday saw Cimatron begin the downslide back to normal values and, as usual, it will take some time until the stock feels, with the help of more intelligent investors obviously, that it has reached the right level at this point in time.
One of Israel's older publicly-traded software companies, Cimatron was founded at the beginning of the 1980s. The truth is that anyone who went through the results that the company unveiled on Monday won't understand why the stock should have climbed the way it did, but did anyone understand what happened back in November when Pointer Telocation Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: PNTR) gained fivefold and more? The issue here is not the fact that Cimatron moved from a significant loss for 2005 to a slight profit for 2006. What should be asked now is whether this veteran player has finally found the right niche and path over on Main Street.
It will take another quarter and perhaps two until we finally learn whether Monday's monumental jump represented a genuine turnaround. While there had been initially been a long process of cost cutting, said former board chairman and current board member Yossi Ben Shalom, the most important thing now was the development of the company's new product. If a new product is indeed on the cards, then at the current price of $2.90, the stock is definitely worth checking out thoroughly.
As I am not much of an expert on computer assisted design or manufacturing, I would be happy to see some analyst research on the company, but this will be only forthcoming once the stock edges past the $5 level, or if the company commissions some research of its own, so I might as well try it out myself. I will have to rely on the statement by chairman Rimon Ben Shaoul, who said that after several years of streamlining and adding new product lines, the company is now finally back on track. I, for one, hope that is the case.
As regards the management team, CEO Danny Haran, who is a graduate of Comverse Technology Inc. (Pink Sheets: CMVT.PK), a company that has been an excellent school for many managers, looks like the right man for the job, and I know the company's CFO Ilan Erez from his time as CFO at Silicom Ltd. (Nasdaq: SILC), so investors are in good hands.
What caused Cimatron's stock to skyrocket? Nobody knows. Nevertheless, the company is worth a look if it really has a new product in the pipeline.
yukii - when was that written?
Both were written back in March
Part2
Shlomo Greenberg submits: Cimatron Technologies (CIMT) has gained 132% since the beginning of the month. Its current price, $3.20, represents a new high since the low it reached in 2002. The stock had actually been holding steady at $1.40 recently, and then it suddenly soared at the end of the first week of March. Cimatron, which specializes in industrial instrumentation, is one of the oldest Israeli companies on the stock exchanges in New York. The company develops and produces software for the manufacturing of devices used in the metalwork industries, from dies to numerical control software for machines.
Since I last wrote about this company, the stock has continued to rise strongly. What caused this surge? The reason apparently does not lie in the company's fantastic performance or anything like that. 2006 and its final quarter were "responsible" for the stock's initial climb at the end of the first week of the month, but after the initial excitement following the company's move from losses to an operating profit (it is still losing), it fell again to $2.60 from $3 at the beginning of the week. It then suddenly soared 27% to $3.30 following the announcement of the opening of two new offices in China.
At the beginning of the month Cimatron announced that it would be launching the new version of its CimatronE software for tool manufacturing, Version 8. From what I have read, this really is an advanced version which has won the company much praise on Main Street. Todd DeMint, lead designer at toolmaker Eimo Americas in Michigan said that "Version 8 gives us new tools in design and manufacturing," while industry analyst Alan Christman of CIMdata said that the release of the new software would change Cimatron's situation, for the better obviously.
The truth is that anyone who read the company's fourth quarter and 2006 reports would have seen that China is indeed the company's center of activity, and from what the company president said, it is obvious that the entry into China in order to grow together with the market there was a strategic decision. China, as it happens, has become the world leader in industrial tool design and production, and Cimatron's idea to operate there is perfectly logical.
Cimatron is a fairly small company by any criteria, and it has to exploit its technological edge (if indeed it has one) and rely on it in order to continue growing. The company's performance and the behavior of its stock since 1996 have not been exceptional to date, but perhaps everything is now beginning to happen. It's definitely worth checking out.
The new die design application ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38454;image)
... and an easy 2nd quarter comparison are my hopes for this quarter.
In Q3 it will be easy to grow revenue and net income due to the Microstrategy acquisition.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
as long as the MACD HIST indicator on a weekly basis not is turning up i am not entering.....(Andreas Elder Living in a trading room using MACD HIst as most important indicator) also Terliso could sing a song about this indicator >:D ha ...ha..ha.
Quote from: ket1390 on June 27, 2007, 05:25:11 AM
as long as the MACD HIST indicator on a weekly basis not is turning up i am not entering.....(Andreas Elder Living in a trading room using MACD HIst as most important indicator) also Terliso could sing a song about this indicator >:D ha ...ha..ha.
I read Alexander Elder's "Trading for a Living" and "Come into my trading room" books several times when I had two or three years in the stock market. Then I wanted to learn some more.
In my personal opinion and experience technical indicators don't work over the long run. But a lot of people spend 40 years or more thinking that they do. So, good luck :)
Absolutely nothing happened in CIMT today. I prefer it this way, as the stock waits for a catalyst to move it one way or the other. From my fundamental study I believe Q2, but especially Q3 2007 will be quite positive quarters.
Quote from: David Randolph on June 27, 2007, 04:41:19 PM
Absolutely nothing happened in CIMT today. I prefer it this way, as the stock waits for a catalyst to move it one way or the other. From my fundamental study I believe Q2, but especially Q3 2007 will be quite positive quarters.
So if CIMT makes even just $180K in net income in Q2, then the headline can look something like "CIMT posts 1000% increase in Q2 net income". Then we get another huge spike up on high volume. No guarantees, but certainly seems quite possible they do at least 180K or more in Q2 with the new products. I wouldnt be surprised to see a much larger increase. Still holding here quite comfortably :)
Today I wrote an e/m to Cimatron CFO asking for some clarifications on MicroSystem acquiring, hopefully it will reply.
Cheers,
tera
Applaud Tokyopua and terainvestment :)
The two major owners of CIMT bought 64.3% of the company for $9.9 M in 2002:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38534;image)
Today their investment is worth $11.27 M. The compound annual return on their investment was 2.63%. They might as well put it in a savings account ;D
As for the future, I believe the company has been taking the right steps for a big surge in its market value. That will take some quarters to unfold.
Technically we had our first "zero volume day".
I'll patiently keep holding CIMT.
CIMATRON LTD Financials
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=cimt&annual (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=cimt&annual)
When the earnings will be released for this quarter?
Anyone knows the date?
IT IS "NOT CONFIRMED", BUT THE DATE IS 8/20
Generally, if earnings are good stock begins moving 3/4 weeks before earning release.
uhmmm...keep waiting...
David what do you think?
Quote from: terainvestment on July 03, 2007, 11:14:40 AM
Generally, if earnings are good stock begins moving 3/4 weeks before earning release.
uhmmm...keep waiting...
David what do you think?
CIMT doesn't seem to be the type of stock that anticipates anything. It just reacts to the news. I expect CIMT to make a huge shot to the upside after Q2 earnings release but certainly after Q3 earnings release, because obviously, due to the Microstrategy acquisition (but also the new product release in March that doubled the market reach of CIMT), revenues and profits will rise. I expect CIMT to be a big contributor to the Main's performance by the end of the year. But between now and then the stock may very well drift lower due to the lack of interest and the technical trend, which is bearish.
As I was writing somebody sold some shares and the stock is down 11.9% now. Not easy to be a long term investor in micro caps, especially when one has to look at them everyday ...
Let me quickly tell you a story. Somewhere in 2002 I bought shares of a company, it was called NetZero at the time. I bought it at $1. It then fell to $0.7 and $0.5. I didn't have a lot of money in it, so I just forgot it. I mean it literally, I had it in an account I didn't use anymore, so I completely forgot about those shares.
About 1 year later I received a letter from e-Trade saying I was the owner of shares of UNTD, which had merged with NetZero in early 2003, or something. The stock I bought at $1 was at $40 :o (pre-split).
It was the most incredible investment I ever made in percentage terms. But between my buying and the end result of a 40 fold return, I had been losing 50% on my investment.
Got to pick up my kids, see ya :)
There is one poster on the YMB who has recently started an all out campaign against CIMT, even created an account called "dollar_thirty" just for the purpose of claiming CIMT will go to $1.30. Posts multiple times per day. Actually makes himself sound knowledgeable, so its possible this is causing the low volume weak hands. Here is a post from him today:
--------------------
dollar vs yen and euro.
Read their 10K
Sales.
1. 8.0 released in May. People cut back buying V 7.1 starting in Jan.
2. Dec 06 quarter sales were high because they offered clearance prices on the old release.
3. It takes 9 - 12 months companies to analyze and buy new CAD/CAM software, in some cases only 6, but rarely if ever less.
4. Purchased upgrades take 6 - 9 months from the start of the process until the contract is signed.
5. Sales effort on 8.0 did not commence until the end of May see section below so very little of 8.0 would have been bought in the June quarter.
Now how do I know the above. I worked in manufacturing with engineers buying and installing ERP and CAD/CAM systems for close to 30 years. That is how I know.
Operating expenses will be higher because they started an extensive dog and pony marketing campaign on v8.0 in May. My guess is that Marketing expenses, not sales but Marketing expenses will be up at least $200K in the June quarter vs the March quarter. How do I know that they started an extensive marketing campaign? Because it was plastered all over the websites of their subsidiaries in North America, Germany and China along with the Microsystem SRL website.
Finally, the stock is not going down for no reason. There is absolutely no smart money buying it.
Bottom line is that from what I have read and seen of v8.0 the Progressive DieDesign, which I have seen the software work, is a slick program, but I would not look for any benefits from it until the 4th quarter. The current quarter which is quarter #3 is summer vacation in Europe so you forget this current as to being profitable, plus it is too soon in the V8.0 cycle for it to be recording sales.
China is also a problem, in that Piracy is a humongous problem for them over there. That not only keeps there sales in China down but all over the world. Check the net. It is easy to find very cheap pirated copies of CimatronE.
If they were smart they would stop selling it on CDs or as a download and make it a web based program. This would cut down on piracy.
They will have a decent profit (for them) in Q4 of this year if the world economy holds up and the dollar stay week and the debt at Microsystem SRL, which they will pick up is not too large, which it may very well be. My sense from reading their 20-Fs, 6-Ks and PRs and surfing the next for info on the subeject is that Microsystem SRL would have gone bankrupt belly up and had to close their doors entirely, (they did shutter 1/3 of their offices) had not CIMT bought them out. That is how CIMT was able to get them so cheaply, because of Microsystem SRL's awful financial condition.
Have a nice day
See ya at $1.30.
----------------------
I really like to know/find more about Microsystem SRL's financial condition... ::)
A better way of uncovering potential or otherwise of CIMT will be to do some search on the Management and Holding companies. I dont have stomach for this but maybe someone with appetite for google can do.
QuoteThere is one poster on the YMB who has recently started an all out campaign against CIMT, even created an account called "dollar_thirty" just for the purpose of claiming CIMT will go to $1.30. Posts multiple times per day. Actually makes himself sound knowledgeable, so its possible this is causing the low volume weak hands.
Thanks for the post Tokyopua, it's nice to read a different view of the fundamentals. His basic premises are:
1) Version 8.0 will take time to get traction in the market place, usually 6-12 months.
2) Microsystem probably has a lot of debt, that's why CIMT got it so cheap.
As for 1), I say that the short term doesn't matter to where the stock will be three years from now. If CimatronE version 8.0 sells as well as it should, it will increase the company's revenues and profits over the long term.
As for 2), I say that CIMT had an
option to buy Microsystem. It didn't have to. Since they exercised the option to buy an additional 23.5% of Microsystem it is because they thought it was a good business to make.
Also Microsystem was profitable in Q4 2006 and Q1 2007, that's why we have those differences between pre-tax income and net income, even without income taxes. Moreover management said over the conference call that Microsystem was profitable in 2006 and it expects the company to be profitable in 2007 and going forward.
As for the $1.30, I don't see it as impossible, the stock already printed $1.66 in yesterday's session. It is possible that the market makes everybody right, and goes down to $1.3, and will be at $15 plus in late 2009. Everything is possible.
Quote from: Se7en on July 03, 2007, 04:49:52 PM
I really like to know/find more about Microsystem SRL's financial condition... ::)
Me too. But I know enough to consider it a good business. CIMT bought 51% of a profitable company with annual sales of $10.5 M for a price of $1.318 M. It will be able to buy the remaining 49% for $1.25 M, so, the total price of the company is $2.568 M. The price to sales ratio is 0.24.
Of course, there are problems, Microsystem probably has a weak balance sheet and it is a low margin business. But again, management thought it was a good business, or else it wouldn't have taken the option to buy the company. Over its form 20-F recently filed with the SEC it says Microsystem went through intense restructuring and reorganization efforts over the 2005 and 2006 period.
Quote from: stocky on July 04, 2007, 12:08:23 AM
A better way of uncovering potential or otherwise of CIMT will be to do some search on the Management and Holding companies. I dont have stomach for this but maybe someone with appetite for google can do.
That's a good idea for the next update stocky, thanks :)
The major owners of the company are:
«In February 2002, two private holding companies,
Koonras Technologies Ltd., or Koonras, a subsidiary of Polar Communications Ltd., and
DBSI Investments Ltd. or DBSI, consummated a transaction with Zeevi Computers and Technology Ltd., or ZCT, by which they acquired, for approximately $9,900,000, all of our Ordinary Shares previously held by ZCT, representing 64.3% of our share capital (including in this calculation 166,100 of our ordinary shares which we have repurchased and which, pursuant to Israeli law, cannot be voted and possess no rights other than upon liquidation). Following this transaction, each of Koonras and DBSI beneficially owned approximately 33% of our ordinary shares and each currently continues to own approximately 32% of our ordinary shares.»
They paid $9.9 M for 64.3% of the company in 2002. Today, 64.3% of the company is worth $10 M, so roughly the same.
But I believe the company is worth more now than what it was worth in 2002. Now CIMT is profitable and most of its heavy R&D expenses are behind us.
CIMT's market cap is $15.6 M, there's no historical dilution or the need to dilute in the future (because the balance sheet is strong, with $5.6 M in cash), annual revenues are above $20 M and to rise to over $30 M with the consolidation of Microsystem.
I'll keep holding CIMT with the strongest hands possible, that is, I won't sell the stock whatever happens. Why this stance? Because the reward/risk ratio is very attractive even considering the remote possibility that the company may go bankrupt. I see CIMT at $15 plus and not much is needed for it from a fundamental standpoint, just 20% average annual revenue growth, a 15% net profit margin which isn't much for a niche software company and a stock that trades at its industry average valuation.
I am with you David... I am holding CIMT no matter what... no reason to sell it now. I am looking to double my position if it hits $1.30-1.40. I am putting in a GTC order to double at $1.35. Hopefully it will have an overshoot like it did yesterday (down to $1.66) and I'll be able to double my position. The upside position / risk/reward is much to high not to double my position if it continues to trade down to $1.30 range on this low volume... it is a gift in my opinion. Thanks as always David!!!!
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 04, 2007, 12:08:45 PM
I am with you David... I am holding CIMT no matter what... no reason to sell it now. I am looking to double my position if it hits $1.30-1.40. I am putting in a GTC order to double at $1.35. Hopefully it will have an overshoot like it did yesterday (down to $1.66) and I'll be able to double my position. The upside position / risk/reward is much to high not to double my position if it continues to trade down to $1.30 range on this low volume... it is a gift in my opinion. Thanks as always David!!!!
Yeah, I say we all put in orders somewhere above 1.30 and maybe we deny that dollar_thrity dork the opportunity to ever buy at 1.30 haha >:D
BTW, that print of 1.66 looked like one big market order, someone got scared and wanted out. If you are not thinking long term, this would look a bit scary from the technical standpoint.
fyi:
Cimatron Completes The Increase of its Holding in Microsystem to 51%
Thursday July 5, 3:01 am ET
Consolidated Results From Q3 2007
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that it has completed the exercise of its previously disclosed first call option to acquire an additional 23.5% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, and accordingly, to increase Cimatron's holding in Microsystem from 27.5% to 51%. Cimatron will be entitled to exercise its second call option to acquire the remaining 49% of Microsystem's share capital during a thirty-day period starting July 3rd 2008 and ending August 2nd 2008, during which period Microsystem's other shareholders are also entitled to exercise a put option requiring Cimatron to purchase such shares. Microsystem's financial results will be fully consolidated into Cimatron's financial results from Q3 2007, subject to exclusion of minority interest.
Commenting on the closing, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to complete the increase of our holding in Microsystem to 51%, as we believe it would increase not only our revenues, but our profitability as well.
As we had previously announced, Cimatron's growth strategy is based on internal growth, as well as on mergers and acquisitions. We intend to keep looking for M&A opportunities in order to further enhance our product offering and distribution network.
Cimatron's strong financial position enables us to finance the Microsystem deal from internal resources and to further develop our growth. We believe that being a larger company will open new opportunities to Cimatron in the CAD/CAM industry."
&
Cimatron Reports Decision in Omega Arbitration
Thursday July 5, 3:02 am ET
Arbitration Decision Reflects No Further Expense to be Recorded on Cimatron's Financial Statements
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced the issuance of a decision in its previously disclosed arbitration with Omega - Adem Technologies Ltd. Under the arbitrator's decision, Cimatron will pay to Omega approximately $145 thousand. This amount, together with other expenses that Cimatron had on this case, are within the amounts that Cimatron already accrued in 2005, and accordingly, no further expense will be recorded on Cimatron's financial statements.
Applaud for posting this news la-onda :)
The first part has nothing new to us, but it will probably open the eyes to many bears on this stock (and people not familiar with it):
«GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that it has completed the exercise of its previously disclosed first call option to acquire an additional 23.5% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, and accordingly, to increase Cimatron's holding in Microsystem from 27.5% to 51%. Cimatron will be entitled to exercise its second call option to acquire the remaining 49% of Microsystem's share capital during a thirty-day period starting July 3rd 2008 and ending August 2nd 2008, during which period Microsystem's other shareholders are also entitled to exercise a put option requiring Cimatron to purchase such shares. Microsystem's financial results will be fully consolidated into Cimatron's financial results from Q3 2007, subject to exclusion of minority interest.
Commenting on the closing, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to complete the increase of our holding in Microsystem to 51%, as we believe it would increase not only our revenues, but our profitability as well.
As we had previously announced, Cimatron's growth strategy is based on internal growth, as well as on mergers and acquisitions. We intend to keep looking for M&A opportunities in order to further enhance our product offering and distribution network.
Cimatron's strong financial position enables us to finance the Microsystem deal from internal resources and to further develop our growth. We believe that being a larger company will open new opportunities to Cimatron in the CAD/CAM industry."»
If they said this about the Microsystem acquisition right at the original press release that probably would have spared us the decline from $2.9 to $1.9. Anyway, better late than never.
As for the second part of the news ...
«GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced the issuance of a decision in its previously disclosed arbitration with Omega - Adem Technologies Ltd. Under the arbitrator's decision, Cimatron will pay to Omega approximately $145 thousand. This amount, together with other expenses that Cimatron had on this case, are within the amounts that Cimatron already accrued in 2005, and accordingly, no further expense will be recorded on Cimatron's financial statements.»
... it is a relief, because Omega was asking for $20 M in damages and CIMT had booked just $250,000 for the issue:
«We may not be successful in our arbitration proceedings with Omega.
In April 2004, Omega – Adem Technologies Ltd., an Israeli privately held company engaged in the development of software, filed a lawsuit against us, claiming that we caused four employees of the plaintiff located in Russia to terminate their employment with the plaintiff and join us. In September 2004, Omega submitted a statement of claim to an arbitrator for an amount of $20,000,000 for damages caused to it due to the employment of the four employees in question. The arbitration process is now in its final stage. We believe that there is no merit to the claim, which we have continuously vigorously opposed, but we have nevertheless accrued in the fourth quarter of 2005 a sum of $250,000 for this claim. We cannot give any assurance that we will be victorious or that the arbitration award will not exceed the amount we accrued. See "Item 8 – Financial Information – Legal Proceedings" for more information regarding this claim.»
But $250 K was enough to settle the issue, so, good news :)
I hope the Yahoo basher runs for the "buy to cover small door" today and leaves the stock alone.
We'll see how the market responds to the news ... of course, I'll hold CIMT whatever happens.
Will the $145 thousand affect the Q2 numbers?
Quote from: Se7en on July 05, 2007, 06:52:38 AM
Will the $145 thousand affect the Q2 numbers?
No.
«Givat Shmuel, Israel, – July 5, 2007– Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced the issuance of a decision in its previously disclosed arbitration with Omega – Adem Technologies Ltd. Under the arbitrator's decision, Cimatron will pay to Omega approximately $145 thousand. This amount, together with other expenses that Cimatron had on this case, are within the amounts that Cimatron already accrued in 2005, and accordingly,
no further expense will be recorded on Cimatron's financial statements.»
Quote from: tokyopua on July 04, 2007, 03:21:05 PM
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 04, 2007, 12:08:45 PM
I am with you David... I am holding CIMT no matter what... no reason to sell it now. I am looking to double my position if it hits $1.30-1.40. I am putting in a GTC order to double at $1.35. Hopefully it will have an overshoot like it did yesterday (down to $1.66) and I'll be able to double my position. The upside position / risk/reward is much to high not to double my position if it continues to trade down to $1.30 range on this low volume... it is a gift in my opinion. Thanks as always David!!!!
Yeah, I say we all put in orders somewhere above 1.30 and maybe we deny that dollar_thrity dork the opportunity to ever buy at 1.30 haha >:D
BTW, that print of 1.66 looked like one big market order, someone got scared and wanted out. If you are not thinking long term, this would look a bit scary from the technical standpoint.
i close at 1.66 would have been scary but it was the buy point and it closed with a reversal candle at 1.95....the long term chart is setting up we close over MA 50 weekly 1.91 and the channel support (blue lines on my chart) we are soon ready for a bounce up....just normal chart correction....maybe i am buying today but i hate so low volume
Message for DRAGONAMG (or for whom can reply).
you said that you will place a GTC order for Cimt at 1.35.
Which kind of instructions you give?
Limit order?
Stop limit order?
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 08:09:34 AM
Message for DRAGONAMG (or for whom can reply).
you said that you will place a GTC order for Cimt at 1.35.
Which kind of instructions you give?
Limit order?
Stop limit order?
GTC order is a "Good 'Till Canceled" order. It can be a limit order valid until canceled, for example.
I hope this answers your question, or else DragonAMG will probably say something.
Thanks David, it helps.
I propose a deal regarding CIMT: I inquired their CFO for Microsystem acquisition but he replied he cannot answer to my questions.
I found an internet site where I can have the last balance sheet (FY 2006) paying 27€, approx 36$.
If you send me by PayPal the 27€ (or 1 month subscription free :-)), I can buy the italian report and highlight the main balance sheets accounts and index.
All the community could benefit.
For further info:
http://www.teleinformazioni.it/visurecamerali.asp?servizio=11
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 08:25:54 AM
Thanks David, it helps.
I propose a deal regarding CIMT: I inquired their CFO for Microsystem acquisition but he replied he cannot answer to my questions.
I found an internet site where I can have the last balance sheet (FY 2006) paying 27€, approx 36$.
If you send me by PayPal the 27€ (or 1 month subscription free :-)), I can buy the italian report and highlight the main balance sheets accounts and index.
All the community could benefit.
For further info:
http://www.teleinformazioni.it/visurecamerali.asp?servizio=11
We have a deal ;)
I'll ask Ramsburg to send you $36 over Pay Pal. Thanks tera :)
Great!
In the meantime I buy the report and then post the data!
STOP!!
don't send me money, this site asks the VAT number that I do not have (being an individual).
I will look for another site...I will let you know.
tera
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 08:54:14 AM
STOP!!
don't send me money, this site asks the VAT number that I do not have (being an individual).
I will look for another site...I will let you know.
tera
Ok, then send me a private message. Thanks.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 05, 2007, 08:43:25 AM
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 08:25:54 AM
Thanks David, it helps.
I propose a deal regarding CIMT: I inquired their CFO for Microsystem acquisition but he replied he cannot answer to my questions.
I found an internet site where I can have the last balance sheet (FY 2006) paying 27€, approx 36$.
If you send me by PayPal the 27€ (or 1 month subscription free :-)), I can buy the italian report and highlight the main balance sheets accounts and index.
All the community could benefit.
For further info:
http://www.teleinformazioni.it/visurecamerali.asp?servizio=11
We have a deal ;)
I'll ask Ramsburg to send you $36 over Pay Pal. Thanks tera :)
good move David :)
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 08:54:14 AM
STOP!!
don't send me money, this site asks the VAT number that I do not have (being an individual).
I will look for another site...I will let you know.
tera
Come on terainvestment, you're making me curious now! ;D
Btw, can't you just skip the VAT part or leave it open?
Guys I am very sorry.
I asked to my attorney and he said that balance sheets of 2006 of private companies will be available only on September 2007.
Too late, the earning call scheduled for August will give us some more details.
Cheers,
A.
Quote from: terainvestment on July 05, 2007, 11:39:21 AM
Guys I am very sorry.
I asked to my attorney and he said that balance sheets of 2006 of private companies will be available only on September 2007.
Too late, the earning call scheduled for August will give us some more details.
Cheers,
A.
Applaud anyway for the effort.
I must say I was expecting a bit more of a positive reaction, given today's news. But many times micro caps work in slow motion, because not many people are watching them or the news out.
We've had two distinct press releases for CIMT today, which seems like a response from management to the share price decline. I bet the two holders of 64% of the shares didn't like the way things were going ;D
My take is a lot of the decline from $2.9 to a low of $1.66 was due to management not disclosing the full information on the press release announcing the Microsystem's acquisition. A lot of people thought Microsystem was losing money and was in terrible financial shape. However, this isn't the case, or else CIMT could have passed the option it had to buy another 23.5% stake in the company. CIMT reaffirmed that Microsystems is profitable and probably to remain profitable:
• Cimatron Completes The Increase of its Holding in Microsystem to 51% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070705/ukw042.html?.v=5)
PR Newswire (Thu 3:01am)
«Commenting on the closing, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to complete the increase of our holding in Microsystem to 51%, as we believe it would increase not only our revenues, but our profitability as well.»
Another part I enjoyed in this press release was:
«As we had previously announced, Cimatron's growth strategy is based on internal growth, as well as on mergers and acquisitions. We intend to keep looking for M&A opportunities in order to further enhance our product offering and distribution network.
Cimatron's strong financial position enables us to finance the Microsystem deal from internal resources and to further develop our growth. We believe that being a larger company will open new opportunities to Cimatron in the CAD/CAM industry."»
CIMT's management is committed to growth. I would say the 20% revenue CAGR expected in my valuation model is almost "in the pocket", since Microstrategy alone will make CIMT's revenues rise by 49% (CIMT had revenue of $21.5 M in 2006 and Microstrategy $10.5 M, so in fiscal 2008, not considering growth potential, revenue will be $32 M)
There can be a bit of dilution because there's an employee incentive plan, but not more than 2% a year.
The issue is and will continue to be net profit margin. Can CIMT remain profitable, and more, can it expand its net profit margin to 15%, as expected in my valuation model (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main)?
I believe it can because it is a software company. Software costs a lot to develop, but once it is done, an additional copy costs less than $1. I expect R&D costs and SG&A expenses to decline as a percentage of sales going forward.
Another positive piece of news today had to do with litigation risk:
• Cimatron Reports Decision in Omega Arbitration (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070705/ukw043.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Thu 3:02am)
In the 20-F filed with the SEC a few days ago we could read:
«We may not be successful in our arbitration proceedings with Omega.
In April 2004, Omega – Adem Technologies Ltd., an Israeli privately held company engaged in the development of software, filed a lawsuit against us, claiming that we caused four employees of the plaintiff located in Russia to terminate their employment with the plaintiff and join us. In September 2004, Omega submitted a statement of claim to an arbitrator for an amount of $20,000,000 for damages caused to it due to the employment of the four employees in question. The arbitration process is now in its final stage. We believe that there is no merit to the claim, which we have continuously vigorously opposed, but we have nevertheless accrued in the fourth quarter of 2005 a sum of $250,000 for this claim. We cannot give any assurance that we will be victorious or that the arbitration award will not exceed the amount we accrued. See "Item 8 – Financial Information – Legal Proceedings" for more information regarding this claim. »
Those $20 M in claims could really cripple CIMT. Fortunately the arbitrator decided to settle the issue with CIMT paying just $145 K. CIMT says its expenses with the matter were roughly $250 K, which had already been expensed in 2005 financial results, so, no more impact from this. This risk won't be present in the next 20-F form.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
David, this is from that basher on yahoo, what's your opinion on this? Tia!
CIMT will wind up paying .25 on a revenue dollar for Microsystem SRL. Microsytem SRL was profitable according to Haran.
CIMT in 2006 was breakeven, not profitable from a operational profit. All of their profit last year came on exchange rate gains and interest income. Go look at the financials.
CIMT annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years. Haran only acquired Microsystem SRL to keep it from going bankrupt and out of business.
QuoteCIMT will wind up paying .25 on a revenue dollar for Microsystem SRL. Microsytem SRL was profitable according to Haran.
Microsystem is a distributor, a middle man, not a software company. That's why the revenue multiple is so low. Microsystem net profit margin probably is in the 1 to 5% range and there isn't much room for expansion there, like it happens with any distributor.
Moreover CIMT had these options to buy stakes in Microsystem's since 2005, when the company was in trouble (it appears). So the price fixed back then may have nothing to do with today's fundamentals or prospects.
QuoteCIMT in 2006 was breakeven, not profitable from a operational profit. All of their profit last year came on exchange rate gains and interest income. Go look at the financials.
So? Over the last two quarters CIMT had operating income of $479 K and net income of $738 K. The euro continues to be high against the USD and the company's cash will continue to earn interest.
QuoteCIMT annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years.
Revenues remained more or less flat for several years. In 2006 revenue was $21.459 M versus $20.925 M in 2005. So to say that "annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years" is wrong.
QuoteHaran only acquired Microsystem SRL to keep it from going bankrupt and out of business.
That's ridiculous. Probably when they made the contracts and established those options to buy stakes of Microstrategy, the company was going through serious problems and maybe facing bankrupcty. And the price was fixed back then. Now CIMT exercised the option to buy probably because Microsystem was able to turnaround its business (of course, with CIMT's help, but that's the past now), or else why would CIMT buy the company? Unless Microstrategy belongs to Koonras or DBSI, the major owners of CIMT. I'll have to investigate that later, but I don't think this is the case.
Moreover the CEO already said Microstrategy is profitable.
Ooops, already two updates for CIMT today ... I really hope CIMT gives a very, very handsome profit to the Main a couple of years down the road, because it sure is giving a lot of work :)
Quote from: Se7en on July 05, 2007, 05:25:10 PM
David, this is from that basher on yahoo, what's your opinion on this? Tia!
CIMT will wind up paying .25 on a revenue dollar for Microsystem SRL. Microsytem SRL was profitable according to Haran.
CIMT in 2006 was breakeven, not profitable from a operational profit. All of their profit last year came on exchange rate gains and interest income. Go look at the financials.
CIMT annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years. Haran only acquired Microsystem SRL to keep it from going bankrupt and out of business.
I figured out today that this is a smart basher who tries to make it sound like he is citing fact, saying he worked in the industry for 30 years, etc. He actually has done some research on the stock so can cite a lot of information.
But today he used a really cheap scare tactic before the open. He said the bid was at 0.01 and that CIMT was going bankrupt. Total BS. Sure, the bid was at 0.01, it was before the damn open. The ask was at 2.35 at the same time but he didnt mention that, just tried to use the 0.01 bid to scare someone into thinking that CIMT was going bankrupt. Really cheap tactics, but its working on some people, that 1.66 yesterday seemed like a market order with someone wanting to get out of a large position, cause it recovered in about 2 minutes.
Quote from: tokyopua on July 05, 2007, 11:50:06 PM
Quote from: Se7en on July 05, 2007, 05:25:10 PM
David, this is from that basher on yahoo, what's your opinion on this? Tia!
CIMT will wind up paying .25 on a revenue dollar for Microsystem SRL. Microsytem SRL was profitable according to Haran.
CIMT in 2006 was breakeven, not profitable from a operational profit. All of their profit last year came on exchange rate gains and interest income. Go look at the financials.
CIMT annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years. Haran only acquired Microsystem SRL to keep it from going bankrupt and out of business.
You're absolutely right... he's total a$$hole trying to get some cheap shares. I hope he never gets into this stock... he doesn't deserve it.
I figured out today that this is a smart basher who tries to make it sound like he is citing fact, saying he worked in the industry for 30 years, etc. He actually has done some research on the stock so can cite a lot of information.
But today he used a really cheap scare tactic before the open. He said the bid was at 0.01 and that CIMT was going bankrupt. Total BS. Sure, the bid was at 0.01, it was before the damn open. The ask was at 2.35 at the same time but he didnt mention that, just tried to use the 0.01 bid to scare someone into thinking that CIMT was going bankrupt. Really cheap tactics, but its working on some people, that 1.66 yesterday seemed like a market order with someone wanting to get out of a large position, cause it recovered in about 2 minutes.
Quote from: DragonAMG on July 06, 2007, 01:19:17 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on July 05, 2007, 11:50:06 PM
Quote from: Se7en on July 05, 2007, 05:25:10 PM
David, this is from that basher on yahoo, what's your opinion on this? Tia!
CIMT will wind up paying .25 on a revenue dollar for Microsystem SRL. Microsytem SRL was profitable according to Haran.
CIMT in 2006 was breakeven, not profitable from a operational profit. All of their profit last year came on exchange rate gains and interest income. Go look at the financials.
CIMT annual sales have been going down for the last 5 years. Haran only acquired Microsystem SRL to keep it from going bankrupt and out of business.
You're absolutely right... he's total a$$hole trying to get some cheap shares. I hope he never gets into this stock... he doesn't deserve it.
I figured out today that this is a smart basher who tries to make it sound like he is citing fact, saying he worked in the industry for 30 years, etc. He actually has done some research on the stock so can cite a lot of information.
But today he used a really cheap scare tactic before the open. He said the bid was at 0.01 and that CIMT was going bankrupt. Total BS. Sure, the bid was at 0.01, it was before the damn open. The ask was at 2.35 at the same time but he didnt mention that, just tried to use the 0.01 bid to scare someone into thinking that CIMT was going bankrupt. Really cheap tactics, but its working on some people, that 1.66 yesterday seemed like a market order with someone wanting to get out of a large position, cause it recovered in about 2 minutes.
Sounds like he wishes the stock to fall enough for him to buy BEFORE next ER. Otherwise, why wouldn't he let the cards fall as they will, instead of working it so hard now. You can't give these Yahoo posters and masqueraders much, if any, credibilty. For the majority of my holdings, I've never even read the Yahoo message boards and have no desire to do so.
A couple of points; The Microsystem aquisition is designed to strengthen their leading position in Italy and will most assuredly be beneficial to the company, otherwise they wouldn't take the option to do so. Q1 2007 Revs from Italy 29% higher than Q1 2006. In Sept. 2006, they also aquired the remaining 70% interest in their former Korean distributor which is now KCT-Korea Cimatron Technologies.
Software piracy is a problem for all software creators and is NOT at all Cimatron specific. Most legitimate business's won't take the chance using software illegally and also want to have access to updates and company technical support, customization, setup, etc.
I wish I'd have been there late Tues afternoon on the dip. Looked like a great buying opp, and I want to buy this back again soon.
I've been told that many of the Yahoo bashers are paid to bash the stock. I'm not sure exactly how it works but I do know that no normal human being would spend hours a day reading & writing about a stock he/she had absolutely NO iinterest in buying or holding! Many bashers post dozens of times a day .. who has time for that?
I have often (but not always) noticed an inverse relationship between # of basher posts and stock price... i.e. the more it is bashed, the more likely it is to go up :D I've played FRPT that way several times.
CIMT waking up here?
Yeah, it's nice to see some above average volume without the price going down.
I took a look at the two major owners of Cimatron, Koonras Technologies Ltd, a subsidiary of Polar Communications Ltd and D.B.S.I. Investments Ltd.
The Polar Group (http://www.pil.co.il/Index.asp?CategoryID=66&ArticleID=24) is a large Israeli group, with three companies listed in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (http://www.tase.co.il/TASEEng/homepage.htm). Polar Communications Ltd (http://www.tase.co.il/TASEEng/General/Company/companyMainData.htm?ShareID=01083633&CompanyID=001087&subDataType=0&), the subsidiary that owns Koonras Technologies, which owns 33% of Cimatron, is a publicly traded company in Israel with a market cap of 259,099,000/4.2348 (http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=ILS&submit=Convert) = $61.18 M.
The whole Polar Group has a market cap of $178 M.
As for D.B.S.I., the initials mean "Dotan Ben Shalom Investments", and two of CIMT's directors have the same name:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38753;image)
There's a Dotan and a Shalom. I don't think this is a coincidence. Anyway, I got just this information for D.B.S.I. (http://www.ivc-online.com/G_info.asp?objectType=4&fObjectID=350&CameFrom=GoogleSearch).
«DBSI is a private company specializing in investments in mature companies positioned for high growth segments of the technology market.»
I would say 65% or so of CIMT's shares are in good hands. My shares are in good hands too, because I'm going to invest in this company the way its core investors do, that is, I won't sell it just because of a "lower than expected quarter" or a technical breakdown.
Speaking of the technicals, Friday's volume was the highest since May 22nd, 2007.
98,500 shares traded may mean a shift in the short term trend, from bearish to bullish.
I'll keep on holding CIMT.
I've been thinking if the Yahoo basher, who clearly intends to mislead people into selling their shares so he can accumulate as cheap as possible, doesn't have a point about costumers taking two to three quarters to test, approve and finally purchase a new version of software.
But, what the CEO said at the 1st quarter earnings release contradicts that view:
«Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to present another profitable quarter, in line with our strategic plan. Cimatron's financials for Q1 2007 reflect the initial positive acceptance to our innovative CimatronE version 8 for die makers, mold makers and discrete parts manufacturers, and our ongoing efforts to maintain tight expense control and more efficient organization. We are particularly pleased with market feedback to the new Die Design product launched in Q1 2007.»
He said there was already some impact in Q1 2007 financial results, even though the version 8.0 was launched just in March 2007. So I guess we can expect even more impact in Q2.
Beyond the possible Q2 earnings catalyst (and certainly a Q3 revenue and earnings catalyst due to the consolidation of Microsystem) we now have a new "pocket of hope", which is potential accretive acquisitions:
«As we had previously announced, Cimatron's growth strategy is based on internal growth, as well as on mergers and acquisitions. We intend to keep looking for M&A opportunities in order to further enhance our product offering and distribution network.
Cimatron's strong financial position enables us to finance the Microsystem deal from internal resources and to further develop our growth. We believe that being a larger company will open new opportunities to Cimatron in the CAD/CAM industry."»
From these words and looking at CIMT's $5.6 M cash pile (remember it is a $16.8 M market cap) I guess we can have another announcement of an acquisition anytime soon.
From a technical standpoint, we had another constructive day with the stock rising 2.33% on volume above average of 51,700 shares.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 09, 2007, 07:18:22 PM
I've been thinking if the Yahoo basher, who clearly intends to mislead people into selling their shares so he can accumulate as cheap as possible, doesn't have a point about costumers taking two to three quarters to test, approve and finally purchase a new version of software.
But, what the CEO said at the 1st quarter earnings release contradicts that view:
«Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to present another profitable quarter, in line with our strategic plan. Cimatron's financials for Q1 2007 reflect the initial positive acceptance to our innovative CimatronE version 8 for die makers, mold makers and discrete parts manufacturers, and our ongoing efforts to maintain tight expense control and more efficient organization. We are particularly pleased with market feedback to the new Die Design product launched in Q1 2007.»
He said there was already some impact in Q1 2007 financial results, even though the version 8.0 was launched just in March 2007. So I guess we can expect even more impact in Q2.
Beyond the possible Q2 earnings catalyst (and certainly a Q3 revenue and earnings catalyst due to the consolidation of Microsystem) we now have a new "pocket of hope", which is potential accretive acquisitions:
«As we had previously announced, Cimatron's growth strategy is based on internal growth, as well as on mergers and acquisitions. We intend to keep looking for M&A opportunities in order to further enhance our product offering and distribution network.
Cimatron's strong financial position enables us to finance the Microsystem deal from internal resources and to further develop our growth. We believe that being a larger company will open new opportunities to Cimatron in the CAD/CAM industry."»
From these words and looking at CIMT's $5.6 M cash pile (remember it is a $16.8 M market cap) I guess we can have another announcement of an acquisition anytime soon.
From a technical standpoint, we had another constructive day with the stock rising 2.33% on volume above average of 51,700 shares.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
I don't think it takes customers 2 or 3 Q's to test, approve and purchase either. Most likely, CimE8, has been available to many of their customers in a beta test version for many months prior to release. I understand that the customers/potential customers had a great deal of input for creating CimE8. Also if the program is as good as I understand , the release was probably eagerly anticipated and may have even been pre-ordered by some.
This could be big, and I gotta get back in real soon. Seeya at $1.30. Just kidding. >:D
Are we going to the moon ;D
Not much volume today but a decent candle for CIMT anyway.
Its funny that the Yahoo basher has made me take more interest in CIMT recently than I would have otherwise, I have been posting a few positive notes here and there on YMB. Otherwise, I would just continue to be waiting patiently without looking at the stock so much. But regardless, its nice to have 4 up days in a row. ;)
Quote from: Garoh on July 10, 2007, 03:48:50 PM
Are we going to the moon ;D
Quote from: tokyopua on July 10, 2007, 05:53:57 PM
Not much volume today but a decent candle for CIMT anyway.
Its funny that the Yahoo basher has made me take more interest in CIMT recently than I would have otherwise, I have been posting a few positive notes here and there on YMB. Otherwise, I would just continue to be waiting patiently without looking at the stock so much. But regardless, its nice to have 4 up days in a row. ;)
I'm glad you guys wrote something about CIMT because I feel I ran out of subject with this one. We really need to kick those bears ass out of CIMT's YMB Tokyopua, thanks for your work :)
In investment terms, the appropriate course of action for CIMT now is to lock it in a safe and pretty much forget about it for at least two quarters.
Just two small notes, one on the fundamental side, the other on the technical side.
The fundamental issue is that the more the Euro rises against the USD, the better for CIMT, because the company has a bit more than 50% of its sales coming from Europe. As for Microsystems, more than 95% of its revenues are denominated in euros. When translated to USD, revenues and profits will look better just because of this currency effect. The Euro is now trading at an all time high against the USD (which isn't good for my personal finances ;D).
On the technical side, we have an "important" descending resistance at $2.44 now, but that doesn't really mean anything for the long term share price. I only mention it for descriptive and entertaining reasons.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
I have requested a copy from CIMT presentation yesterday.
cheers
O.
CIMT To Present At C.E. Unterberg Emerging Growth Conference @ 14:00 ET
Tuesday , July 10, 2007 12:02ET
Company representatives of Cimatron Limited (NasdaqSC: CIMT) will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg Emerging Growth Opportunities Conference today. The Company's presentation is scheduled to begin at 14:00 ET.
we left the bad begind us Now the good ;D
closing above 2.30 today will make it a rocket ;)
Quote from: la-onda on July 11, 2007, 05:53:58 AM
I have requested a copy from CIMT presentation yesterday.
cheers
O.
CIMT To Present At C.E. Unterberg Emerging Growth Conference @ 14:00 ET
Tuesday , July 10, 2007 12:02ET
Company representatives of Cimatron Limited (NasdaqSC: CIMT) will be presenting at the C.E. Unterberg Emerging Growth Opportunities Conference today. The Company's presentation is scheduled to begin at 14:00 ET.
Good initiative la-onda, where did you get that information? (you're always getting interesting stuff :))
Quote from: Garoh on July 11, 2007, 11:47:25 AM
we left the bad begind us Now the good ;D
closing above 2.30 today will make it a rocket ;)
I hope so Garoh, but I don't think a close above or below $2.3 is technically significant, volume dried down completely again, since today only 5,840 shares changed hands.
Fundamentally, and speaking about the 2nd quarter earnings, I guess it will all come down to the market acceptation of CimatronE version 8.0 (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/article.aspx?FolderID=72&docID=8623&lang=en):
«CimatronE Version 8 is a substantial and significant release that will greatly enhance and broaden the Cimatron CAD/CAM offering. It introduces totally new applications, new product features, and also provides substantial improvement to existing functions within CimatronE. With this expanded scope of applications, product enhancements, and focus on the more rapidly growing areas of CAM technology and market,
Cimatron expects to increase their rate of revenue growth and profitability. CIMdata is favorably impressed by the evolution in Cimatron product and market strategy and the sizeable content of Version 8. It is expected that the product will be well received in the worldwide market.»
It seems Microsystem is making its best efforts to sell as much as they can of CimatronE version 8.0, look at their website: http://www.microsystem.it/imgs_comuni/index.asp
I'll keep holding CIMT.
David
I expected to see bigger volume today not just 5800 shares and it also closed on 2.30 ..
I didn't like todays action ... On weekly if it keeps this level the chart will turn very bullish ...
but it's a long term investment anyway and the worest has gone :)
hey david. What's the difference between Net Profit Margin and Operating Profit margin. Then please explain why you have CIMT's net margin estimated to be at 15 as opposed to the industry's average of 2.7 (operating profit margin).
Quote from: kpunarc on July 11, 2007, 05:33:05 PM
hey david. What's the difference between Net Profit Margin and Operating Profit margin. Then please explain why you have CIMT's net margin estimated to be at 15 as opposed to the industry's average of 2.7 (operating profit margin).
Operating Profit Margin is Operating Income/Revenues and Net Profit Margin is Net Income/Revenues.
Operating Income is "a measure of a company's earning power from ongoing operations, equal to earnings before deduction of interest payments and income taxes. Also called operating profit or EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes)."
Net Income is "what remains after subtracting all the costs (namely, business, depreciation, interest, and taxes) from a company's revenues. Net income is sometimes called the bottom line. Also called earnings or net profit."
QuoteThen please explain why you have CIMT's net margin estimated to be at 15 as opposed to the industry's average of 2.7 (operating profit margin).
That's because that industry average (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT) takes into account a lot of companies that have negative operating income. There are hundreds of companies in the Technical & System Software Industry (http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/822_cl_all.html).
But once the development stage of software is passed and companies start having meaningful revenues usually software companies achieve a fat net profit margin. I think this will be the case with CIMT.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 11, 2007, 04:47:51 PM
Good initiative la-onda, where did you get that information? (you're always getting interesting stuff :))
;)
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=cimt
cheers
O.
(no answer from IR yet)
Quote from: la-onda on July 12, 2007, 05:46:06 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on July 11, 2007, 04:47:51 PM
Good initiative la-onda, where did you get that information? (you're always getting interesting stuff :))
;)
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=cimt
cheers
O.
(no answer from IR yet)
Thanks la-onda, this knobias website is really great :)
Probably CIMT had no slides and didn't wish to have a webcast of that presentation, because if they did it would be at www.twst.com which was the exclusive company covering the conference:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38899;image)
But let's see if they reply you.
Nothing happened today on CIMT, neither technically or fundamentally. I'll continue holding the stock.
Maybe someone can call some of Cimatron's distributors and ask how the new product is doing? :) To bad they haven't got an office in Belgium, maybe I'll try to call the one in the Netherlands and ask some more info about CimatronE Die Design 8 ...
Btw, today the Euro is at a record high against the USD ... ::)
anybody in Germany that could also get some info. my sister is going to Germany next month but I want info sooner.
CIMT is one of the 10 largest companies in the world in the Computer Aided Manufacturing market, according to annual sales:
«Cimatron excels in the toolmaking software marketplace. Its total focus on toolmakers is the company's primary distinguishing characteristic, as it supports the process from quoting to delivery by offering a specialized, end-to-end integrated solution that meets these requirements. The company also offers a range of software capabilities that are designed for toolmakers, including those for data import, manufacturing modeling, core and cavity parting, mold base design, electrode design, machining, drafting, management of engineering change orders and information management. Moreover, the company is unique among CAM-centric vendors for establishing distinctive supporting applications, such as quoting solutions for mold and die makers and collaboration software for preliminary tool design.
On the basis of revenues received in 2004, CIMdata ranked Cimatron in the top 10 among CAM software vendors worldwide. The company was also among the top ten in Europe and Asia.»
The largest company in the field is USG:
«Traditionally, the strength of UGS has been at the enterprise level of the CAM market. Overall strengths are market presence, breadth of offering, integration from design through manufacturing, consulting resources available and being among leaders in process planning, mold design, progressive die design and high speed machining.
The recent acquisition of Tecnomatix broadens the UGS manufacturing product offering and provides a number of opportunities for the company to enhance the NX CAM product line. Its broad, integrated manufacturing software product line is conducive to further expansion.
CIMdata cites UGS as the worldwide largest CAM vendor in 2004 on the basis of revenue received and number of seats shipped. The company is also listed as one of the largest PLM vendors in 2004.»
Now, USG was acquired by Siemens for $3.5 B (http://www.ugs.com/about_us/investor/):
«The companies announced on January 25 a definitive agreement for Siemens AG to acquire UGS for US$3.5 billion, including assumption of existing debt.»
Now, let's consider the following article completely: CAD/CAM Outlook - Differentiation Among CAM Software Products (http://www.mmsonline.com/articles/1005cad.html)
We have CIMT before version 8.0.
Now consider the second company, Open Mind Technologies:
«Viewed by CIMdata as an industry leader in providing software for positional and simultaneous five-axis milling of complex components, the company offers extensive resources and specific application solutions to support five-axis milling of intricate products, such as impellers, blisks, turbine blades, tubes, pipes, tire molds, aerospace components, dies and deep cavities within molds.»
And what did CIMT do?
• Cimatron 5-Axis Helps Tool Maker Reduce use of Electrodes by Over 30% (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070612/uktu032.html?.v=6)
PR Newswire (Tue, Jun 12)
Version 8 has that 5-Axis capability.
As for the largest company in the field, USG which was acquired by Siemens for $3.5 B, here's what they do:
«Traditionally, the strength of UGS has been at the enterprise level of the CAM market. Overall strengths are market presence, breadth of offering, integration from design through manufacturing, consulting resources available and being among leaders in process planning, mold design, progressive die design and high speed machining.»
And version 8 has:
• Cimatron to Showcase New Die Design Application at BlechExpo, the Premier International Fair for Sheet Metal Processing (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070430/ukm004.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Mon, Apr 30)
So this 5-Axis and die design stuff seems to be a big deal, because they were what CIMT's competitors had and CIMT didn't. But now CIMT has and its market reach probably expanded a lot.
As for the second quarter, just Microsystem and just in Italy, had 14 presentations of the product in several cities:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=38938;image)
Now, the question is: do people buy software right at those presentations, or there's a lag?
I don't think it matters all that much, because our focus must be beyond this quarter's results. I'm interested in investigating if the product is really good or not, not if it sells right here, right now, but if it's sales will be increasing over time.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
No news out for CIMT today. Also no new technical developments. I've exposed my fundamental case thoroughly and I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT went down 3.3% today, in what I believe is a bottoming process. The company is now valued at $16.4 M for annual sales of roughly $32 M (including Microsystem).
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
I pretty much think now that there is a paid basher on this stock at YMB. For a microcap stock its odd for that to be the case. But seriously, you have 3 names now posting with titles in all Caps for the begging of each word, all same style. I actually see this as a positive for the stock, someone wants to be able to buy some shares at a low price. Im going to do my best to make sure that its not my shares they get... ;)
Yep tokyopua I feel the same way. For such a thinly traded stock at already such low levels there is no other reason to me that someone would spend so much time bashing this little company on YMB other than they think they can shake out weak retail holders and get cheap shares. Someone wants to load up on this stock with as little effect on the PPS as possible. He/She/They aren't getting my shares either.
Quote from: ygtrdr on July 17, 2007, 11:19:21 PM
Yep tokyopua I feel the same way. For such a thinly traded stock at already such low levels there is no other reason to me that someone would spend so much time bashing this little company on YMB other than they think they can shake out weak retail holders and get cheap shares. Someone wants to load up on this stock with as little effect on the PPS as possible. He/She/They aren't getting my shares either.
Indeed, it is strange to see so much bearish interest in a message board of a stock that is already dead from a technical standpoint, trading just 7,400 shares today.
CIMT had EPS of $0.093 over the past two quarters. If the next two quarters are alike, the company will earn $0.186 per share over a 12 month period. That means that without considering any growth, CIMT is trading at 10.7 times earnings, while its industry, the Technical & System Software industry, trades at 34.35 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT).
I don't think this is right, CIMT is massively undervalued in my opinion.
After six days of declines CIMT rose a bit, just 0.5%, but it's a start. It looks like the floor is here around $2.
As for the future, management is committed to growth and profitability, and I believe them, essentially because of three factors:
1) They never diluted shareholder's value;
2) They just made an accretive acquisition using just cash on hand;
3) The new version of their flagship software penetrates the areas of their main and much bigger competitors.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on July 19, 2007, 05:59:25 PM
3) The new version of their flagship software penetrates the areas of their main and much bigger competitors.
Perhaps this explains the paid basher on YMB ;)
But yeah, looking like a W bottom could be forming here, lets hope so, it has been months of decline, CIMT deserves to go up from here.
Quote from: tokyopua on July 19, 2007, 06:19:18 PM
Quote from: David Randolph on July 19, 2007, 05:59:25 PM
3) The new version of their flagship software penetrates the areas of their main and much bigger competitors.
Perhaps this explains the paid basher on YMB ;)
But yeah, looking like a W bottom could be forming here, lets hope so, it has been months of decline, CIMT deserves to go up from here.
It will for sure :)
Somebody lost patience and sold 11,000 CIMT at the open. The stock couldn't recover from that 6% plus drop at the open, but the candlestick on the chart was bullish anyway, because the close was above the open.
I'm not totally confident that the second quarter will be a great quarter, but the third quarter, because of Microsystem's consolidation, will surely show revenue and EPS growth. As for the 4th quarter, it is seasonally the strongest, so ... I also expect good news there.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
No news out and no technical developments either. I'll keep holding CIMT.
you think this is going to try to fill the gap at around $1.40?
Quote from: kpunarc on July 24, 2007, 09:47:23 AM
you think this is going to try to fill the gap at around $1.40?
Just my opinion here, but if this fills the gap I think its one of those hammer moves where you get a quick intraday move down that immediately pops back up. Like say someone has a limit bid in at 1.40, and someone else hits the panic button in a market sell order.
But otherwise there is no reason for the gap to fill before earnings, that would be like saying that all the positive press releases to date didnt mean anything and we are back to where we were before them. If earnings are weak, the gap could fill though, but all CIMT needs to do is get more than 180K in net income/revenue, if I recall correclty, in order to beat YOY.
alright!
I saw this on CNBC earlier today and found the link to it basically stating that the projected market performance is going to take a dive for the rest of the year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=438756672 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=438756672)
I am al ready down 20% thanks to CIMT and TZOO which I dumped already for GSB.
I also heard on CNBC that because the large caps are correcting that the small cap is the place to be in because they are going to explode, in a matter of speaking.
what do you guys think?
I really don't understand either way so I am just trying to see if you guys are either of the same sentiment or not and if so why not.
Thanks.
Quote from: kpunarc on July 24, 2007, 09:47:23 AM
you think this is going to try to fill the gap at around $1.40?
I don't think so, but it's possible. I generally agree with what Tokyopua wrote.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 24, 2007, 09:52:44 PM
alright!
I saw this on CNBC earlier today and found the link to it basically stating that the projected market performance is going to take a dive for the rest of the year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=438756672 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=438756672)
I am al ready down 20% thanks to CIMT and TZOO which I dumped already for GSB.
I also heard on CNBC that because the large caps are correcting that the small cap is the place to be in because they are going to explode, in a matter of speaking.
what do you guys think?
I really don't understand either way so I am just trying to see if you guys are either of the same sentiment or not and if so why not.
Thanks.
Wow, this is a big question pinoleropuro, and it would take all day to answer. Let me just say that I've long ago stopped listening to what market timers say on CNBC, unless it is for contrary thinking purposes. That guy saying the Dow Jones made a top, for the reasons he specified, is almost like an insurance policy that it wasn't the top ;D
Let me tell you about a book that you perhaps would like to read, since it seems to me that you want to learn the stock market game: Contrary Opinion - Using Sentiment to Profit in the Futures Market, by R. Earl Hadady (http://www.amazon.com/Contrary-Opinion-Using-Sentiment-Markets/dp/0471363537/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-0630822-5210408?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185351378&sr=8-1)
I know it is about futures, but you've asked about the general market.
If you want to know about specific stocks, you should study fundamental analysis and invest from a business perspective, here are two good books for you: Mastering Fundamental Analysis (http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Fundamental-Analysis-Michael-Thomsett/dp/0793128730/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-0630822-5210408?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185351508&sr=1-1) and Buffettology (http://www.amazon.com/Buffettology-Previously-Unexplained-Techniques-Buffett/dp/068484821X/ref=pd_bbs_2/002-0630822-5210408?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185351586&sr=1-2).
CIMT went down 1% yesterday. There were reports out saying the short interest on the stock is just 20,000 shares (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.fa40aa09f1414ca0f073ece014ee8ea211beb97e4c440199db43ee038dd9f4e3), so unless that Yahoo basher owns those shares short, he's looking to depress the stock for someone to buy.
2nd quarter earnings will be out in mid August or there about. As Tokyopua said, comparisons are easy, but it all depends how CimatronE version 8 went in Q2. We're still not sure if the product gets sold and shipped right after release or if the costumer's evaluation process takes some months. We'll see about that, but certainly, the future looks bright for CIMT, I'll keep holding the stock.
Thanks David I really do appreciate all your heard work.
QuoteWe're still not sure if the product gets sold and shipped right after release or if the costumer's evaluation process takes some months. We'll see about that, but certainly, the future looks bright for CIMT, I'll keep holding the stock.
Hi David, I just called to the Dutch distributor (http://www.cadmes.nl/cms/portal/template/CmPage1col/app/CADMES/pageId/01s-000025-00d/home.htm/ (http://www.cadmes.nl/cms/portal/template/CmPage1col/app/CADMES/pageId/01s-000025-00d/home.htm/)) of Cimatrons products, found on Cimatrons site (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/map.aspx?FolderID=1097&lang=en (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/map.aspx?FolderID=1097&lang=en)) and I asked one of their sales managers a few questions:
Q: Do you already sell the new CimatronE version 8?
A: yes, we are already distributing it since April 2007.
Q: Is there a customers evaluation process, can we test it for a certain time?
A: That is possible, we can always discuss this so you can for example test it for 1 or 2 months.
Q: When I don't need a testing period, can I immediately have my CimatronE version 8 when I buy it.
A: No problem, it will be delivered right away, the only thing that needs to be taken care of is your license but we can always give you a temporary license in the mean time untill your permanent license is taken care of.
Than he asked me a couple of questions, like if I already used the old version which obviously wasn't the case, he said that this programm isn't something you start with right away if you haven't used it before and that there are special workshops for this.
I didn't ask if sales were going well, maybe someone else can call to their nation distributor and ask it ... :)
Quote from: Se7en on July 25, 2007, 08:36:18 AM
QuoteWe're still not sure if the product gets sold and shipped right after release or if the costumer's evaluation process takes some months. We'll see about that, but certainly, the future looks bright for CIMT, I'll keep holding the stock.
Hi David, I just called to the Dutch distributor (http://www.cadmes.nl/cms/portal/template/CmPage1col/app/CADMES/pageId/01s-000025-00d/home.htm/ (http://www.cadmes.nl/cms/portal/template/CmPage1col/app/CADMES/pageId/01s-000025-00d/home.htm/)) of Cimatrons products, found on Cimatrons site (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/map.aspx?FolderID=1097&lang=en (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/map.aspx?FolderID=1097&lang=en)) and I asked one of their sales managers a few questions:
Q: Do you already sell the new CimatronE version 8?
A: yes, we are already distributing it since April 2007.
Q: Is there a customers evaluation process, can we test it for a certain time?
A: That is possible, we can always discuss this so you can for example test it for 1 or 2 months.
Q: When I don't need a testing period, can I immediately have my CimatronE version 8 when I buy it.
A: No problem, it will be delivered right away, the only thing that needs to be taken care of is your license but we can always give you a temporary license in the mean time untill your permanent license is taken care of.
Than he asked me a couple of questions, like if I already used the old version which obviously wasn't the case, he said that this programm isn't something you start with right away if you haven't used it before and that there are special workshops for this.
I didn't ask if sales were going well, maybe someone else can call to their nation distributor and ask it ... :)
Wow, applaud for this proactive investigation! Sounds positive in general :)
Thanks for your help in CIMT Se7en :)
It seems version 8 will affect Q2 2007 almost in its entirety. If it is true that some costumers held off their purchases of the version 7 in Q1 2007, that should provide a nice boost to Q2 revenues and earnings.
If not in Q2, we know that in Q3 there will almost surely be good news, because a year ago the company reported a loss in that quarter, and this year it will probably show a nice profit, also considering the help of Microsystem.
Of course, the chart doesn't agree, but the chart knows nothing about the future. CIMT is now trading at 10 times earnings and 0.45 times revenues and we know how it can run up by 100% or more in one day if the news warrants it.
I'll patiently keep holding CIMT.
Hi David and hi ALL,
what do you think about CIMT Yahoo board?
There is a terrible climate, I think is the same person that posts for bashing the stock.
Will be this one a paid basher?
yesterday night I read on AAPL board a confession of a paid basher...it is too detailed to be invented, but it might be invented as per I know.
is it possible that people that have been kicked out of this forum gone out and bash this boards holdings?
if I am out of the park with this one please ingnore the question.
just a thought.
I take the time now to rate every negative post on YMB in the CIMT board that I see as one star. And even that takes a lot of time as there are so many negative posts. I also rate the rare occassional positive posts as 5 stars. I know that some people have their settings to show only posts with 2 stars or more, so hopefully this helps somewhat.
It could also be a disgruntled former employee of CIMT who is posting so many negative things, because occasionally they posts some fairly detailed information about the stock. But you are right, it could also be a former board member or a paid basher. Whoever it is, I do believe they have managed to bring down the stock price because the stock has such a low float and is a microcap. If David is right long term, than those here who still havent bought the stock should see that as a gift from heaven, because now the potential gain per the valuation model is over 700% lol!
It is hard to see the stock with the most potential also be the biggest loser in the portfolio. Luckily David posts everyday and helps give us long term investors the strenght to hang on. Without that I would have followed my usual pattern and been out already lol. As David says, I will continue to hold CIMT.
Cimatron to Exhibit New CAM and 5-Axis Capabilities at EMO
Thursday July 26, 9:00 am ET
CAM Applications and Features Include Flexible 5-Axis Programming, NC-Preview, Automated Drill, and Micro Milling Support
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Advanced CAM capabilities recently released by Cimatron (NASDAQ: CIMT - News) will be demonstrated at the EMO tradeshow in Hanover, Germany, 17-22 of September, 2007.
Cimatron's advanced CAM capabilities enable toolmakers and manufacturers to achieve top-quality surfaces using a rich set of 2.5-5-Axis roughing, finishing, and drilling strategies. Cimatron CAM solutions are tightly integrated with the design applications as part of the CimatronE CAD/CAM suite, enabling toolmakers and manufacturers to streamline design and manufacturing cycles.
New capabilities in the recently released version 8 of CimatronE include NC-Preview, Automated Drill, and advanced 5-axis machining options.
5-Axis Machining
CimatronE version 8 features new enhancements to the 5-Axis Production application, delivering higher performance and better user control. Exact simulation of tool path and machine kinematics ensures the most reliable results.
Cimatron 5-Axis Production provides the programmer with complete control to influence any aspect of the toolpath, enabling even the most complex parts to be machined safely and effectively. Integrated CAD capabilities for surfacing are built into the application, facilitating on-the-fly design changes for concurrent engineering and efficient change management.
"Using Cimatron's 5-Axis Production has helped us successfully launch a new product. Things are going so well we are looking at buying another 5-Axis machine to help us fill the high demand" says Steve Hamrick, of Regal Prototypes Inc, USA.
Cimatron's 5-Axis solution also includes a rich set of applications to support streamlined common 5-Axis machining tasks such as impellers, turbine blades, electrodes, and engraving. To smooth the integration of the application into the 5-Axis manufacturing environment, Cimatron provides an extensive selection of post-processors for most machines and controllers in the market.
NC-Preview
Cimatron's NC-Preview provides unique decision-support capabilities that dramatically shorten the NC programming cycle. In a matter of seconds and before the actual toolpath is calculated, NC-Preview provides a visual presentation of the approximated outcome of the toolpath. With clear understanding of remaining stock, extra material, and the tool length required, programmers are able to optimize machining strategies and eliminate any potential errors early in the process.
Automated Drill
Cimatron's new Automated Drill delivers adaptive, accurate, and easy-to-use drilling functionality for applications ranging from plate machining to 5-axis production and gun drilling. It automatically detects both geometric and non-geometric hole properties, tracks remaining stock, and assigns the appropriate drilling sequence. Automated Drill allows users to define new drilling sequences on-the-fly and save these sequences for future use. Hundreds of holes can be recognized in seconds, reducing drill programming time by up to 90%.
Micro-Milling
Cimatron is the first CAD/CAM software to support micro-milling. Cimatron's unique algorithm and corresponding set of NC tools enable effective scaling of jobs to the micro environment, while continuing to ensure the superior accuracy and surface quality.
With built-in strategies for high-speed cutting and other machining functions optimized for micro-milled surfaces, Cimatron NC enables manufacturers and tool makers to achieve superb surface quality with tolerance as tight as 0.0001mm and using cutting tools with diameters down to 0.1mm.
"We have been serving tool makers and manufacturers for more than two decades," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's President and Chief Executive Officer. "The growing demands for accuracy, cost control, and speed of delivery present manufacturers with new challenges. We continue to provide advanced technologies and solutions that enable manufacturers and tool makers to adopt new strategies and step up to these challenges."
The 2007 EMO trade fair will take place in Hanover, Germany, The latest products and services for the metalworking industry will be on display, with special emphases on cutting, splitting, milling and metal forming machine tools, manufacturing systems, precision tools, automation components, computer technology, industrial electronics and accessories. More details can be found at http://www.emo-hannover.de/homepage_e.
Visit Cimatron at EMO, September 17-22, 2007
Hall 6, stand K18
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070726/ukth045.html?.v=3 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070726/ukth045.html?.v=3)
When will the earning be release for CIMT?
I want to jump in before then.
Thanks
Quote from: phabrux on July 26, 2007, 09:34:49 AM
When will the earning be release for CIMT?
I want to jump in before them.
Thanks
Probably around mid August ...
QuoteWhen will the earning be release for CIMT?
I want to jump in before then.
Thanks
QuoteProbably around mid August ...
Se7en,
I just read from yahoo
that this Israel Company first Quarter 07 was release the 21 Mai 2007 at 01:01 am(ET)
Thats match your date if you add 3 months from 21 Mai
Thanks again Se7en.
I think this is a great moment to jump in CIMT and GSB as well.
Market is very down and buying the dips and the panic selling is a rewarding action.
We will see our stocks up again very soon.
QuoteWe will see our stocks up again very soon.
Man, I hope you're right.
if I at least brake even for the year I'll be ok. :-\
but if it goes eve a little higher than I'll be really happy. ;D
Good morning, thanks for your comments and posting the news :)
CIMT rose a bit yesterday (the only one of the Main rising), and today there was a press release out (thanks Se7en) that may help the stock pushing some more to the upside and hopefully make a bullish breakout above its short term descending trendline, which for today will be sitting at $2.10.
The press release just emphasizes the new capabilities of the CimatronE version 8 product ...
• Cimatron to Exhibit New CAM and 5-Axis Capabilities at EMO (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070726/ukth045.html?.v=3)
PR Newswire (Thu 9:00am)
... and says the company will showcase it at a fair in Germany, in September 22nd.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
CIMT didn't fall over the last couple of days, in fact, it even rose a bit. I guess this is a clue that every potential seller at current levels, already sold, and therefore the only way should be up. The stock is trading at 10 times earnings and less than half of annual revenues. I'll keep holding CIMT.
Cimatron's Q2 2007 Results Release Scheduled for August 7th After Markets Close Conference Call Scheduled for August 8th, 2007 at 09:00 ESTGIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 30, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --
Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM
solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced today that
it will be releasing its second quarter 2007 results on Tuesday, August 7th,
2007, after markets close.
The Company will also be hosting a conference call on August 8th, 2007, at 09:00
EST, 16:00 Israel time. On the call, management will review and discuss the
results, and will also be available to answer questions by investors.
To participate, please call one of the following teleconferencing numbers.
Please begin placing your calls at least 5 minutes before the conference call
commences.
USA: +1-888-668-9141
Israel: 03-9180688
International: +972-3-9180688
For those unable to listen to the live call, a replay of the call will be
available from the day after the call under the investor relations section of
Cimatron's website, at: www.cimatron.com
About Cimatron
With more than 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of
integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as
manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing
comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles,
enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product
delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the
automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the
symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are
located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and
post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk
and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from
those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives
and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would,"
"will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and
similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify
forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such
forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and
involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability
to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking
statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global
economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and
services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future
acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and
increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the
business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges
Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any
single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no
obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether
as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Contact:
Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer
Cimatron Ltd.
Tel: +972-3-531-2121
E-mail:
[email protected] Yael Nevat,
Commitment-IR.com
Tel: +972-9-714-8866, +972-50-762-6215
E-mail:
[email protected]SOURCE Cimatron Ltd
CONTACT: Contact: Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer, Cimatron Ltd., Tel: +972-3-531-2121,
E-mail:
[email protected]; Yael Nevat, Commitment-IR.com, Tel: +972-9-714-8866,
+972-50-762-6215, E-mail:
[email protected]
in these threads I have heard that when the results are given in the beginning of the week and early in the morning its usually indicative of good news and vice versa.
hopefully after market close doesn't mean bad Q2 results are coming!
:-\
The CC is early in the morning on the next day ... :)
8)
Thanks. than I really welcome the news!
I took this opportunity to PUMP on Yahoo Message boards today. I feel like in addition to the news it helped. The key is to not pump in reply to any negative post, but just to keep posting new threads with positive titles. We all know CIMT is undervalued, so if you want to help the stock price, stop by YMB and help smap that fool basher! >:D ;) >:D
Go CIMT
About time it woke up!
Good job tokyopua for posting positive stuff.
well...so about that CIMT... ;D
great job tokyopua!
I'm helping a bit on the yahoo forum! :)
;D
What are you guys expecting about earnings?
They had 0,02$ EPS last quarter, but last year on the 2nd Qtr they had 0,00$ EPS, so if we have 0,02$ EPS again (no quarterly growth), there will be huge growth year over year.
If this is the case it will be interesting to see how the market will react to it!
For the 3rd Qtr it looks great, 3rd Qtr 06 was -$0.04, shouldn't be to hard to beat this ... :)
Some other thing, on Aug 31 2005 they released version 7 (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/pressreleases.aspx?FolderID=68&docID=2146&lang=en (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/pressreleases.aspx?FolderID=68&docID=2146&lang=en)), earnings for the 3rd Qtr 05 improved from -$0.17 in the 2nd Qtr 05 to -$0.08 for the 3rd Qtr, maybe a good sign ... :)
Earnings Per Share - Quarterly Results
FY (12/07) FY (12/06) FY (12/05)
1st Qtr $0.02 $0.03 -$0.13
2nd Qtr NA $0.00 -$0.17
3rd Qtr NA -$0.04 -$0.08
4th Qtr NA $0.07 -$0.22
Total $0.02 $0.06 -$0.60
Quote from: Se7en on July 30, 2007, 05:27:13 PM
Some other thing, on Aug 31 2005 they released version 7 (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/pressreleases.aspx?FolderID=68&docID=2146&lang=en (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/pressreleases.aspx?FolderID=68&docID=2146&lang=en)), earnings for the 3rd Qtr 05 improved from -$0.17 in the 2nd Qtr 05 to -$0.08 for the 3rd Qtr, maybe a good sign ... :)
Earnings Per Share - Quarterly Results
FY (12/07) FY (12/06) FY (12/05)
1st Qtr $0.02 $0.03 -$0.13
2nd Qtr NA $0.00 -$0.17
3rd Qtr NA -$0.04 -$0.08
4th Qtr NA $0.07 -$0.22
Total $0.02 $0.06 -$0.60
Se7en very nice post :)
No doubts the bad days are behind ...
Quote from: tokyopua on July 30, 2007, 03:57:23 PM
I took this opportunity to PUMP on Yahoo Message boards today. I feel like in addition to the news it helped. The key is to not pump in reply to any negative post, but just to keep posting new threads with positive titles. We all know CIMT is undervalued, so if you want to help the stock price, stop by YMB and help smap that fool basher! >:D ;) >:D
He he he, great job Tokyopua ;)
As kpunarc posted, CIMT will release 2nd quarter earnings in August 7th:
• Cimatron's Q2 2007 Results Release Scheduled for August 7th After Markets Close (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070730/ukm020.html?.v=65)
PR Newswire (Mon 7:42am)
The next day we'll have a conference call (the second ever for CIMT).
Technically today's 26% rise made the stock close above its descending trendline and above the 50 days SMA for the first time since May 18, 2007.
CIMT can move wildly on not so much volume, because it is such a micro cap ... it is also massively undervalued, as we've seen throughout this thread.
We don't know about 2nd quarter earnings, but hopefully this time there will be more people listening to the conference call and everybody will see that the 3rd quarter can really be a blowout quarter, due to the Microsystem consolidation.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
David, maybe this is a stupid question but I'm going to ask it anyway! :)
CIMT isn't covered by analists, can't we send a mail to some brokerage firms ''explaining'' to them the potential of CIMT and notify them about the upcoming CC?
Who actually decides to start covering a stock in these brokerages firms, is that 1 guy who sits there and says to the employees what he should cover of how does that works? ::)
QuoteDavid, maybe this is a stupid question but I'm going to ask it anyway! :)
Sure, there are no stupid questions :)
QuoteCIMT isn't covered by analists, can't we send a mail to some brokerage firms ''explaining'' to them the potential of CIMT and notify them about the upcoming CC?
We can do that, but they probably won't listen, because CIMT is just too small and illiquid. It's hard to make anyone write about a $17 M Israeli based micro cap.
QuoteWho actually decides to start covering a stock in these brokerages firms, is that 1 guy who sits there and says to the employees what he should cover of how does that works? ::)
You're talking about "sell side" analysts. They cover what they think they can sell to their costumers, or what others are covering too.
But I wouldn't worry too much about these issues Se7en, because if CIMT has the revenue growth and net profit margin I'm anticipating, there's no way it will stay down. The full potential will be recognized by the market, with or without analysts covering the stock.
However, it wouldn't harm to tell the story to more influent people ...
I'm not sure if anyone else catch this, but I was watching Fast Money and CIMT went across the ticker!!!
Quote from: Se7en on July 30, 2007, 04:50:23 PM
I'm helping a bit on the yahoo forum! :)
Saw some of your posts and replied, I got your back!
Man, I have to say it feels really good to see a 25% up day in CIMT and to see that basher flail. It really does seem now he wont get shares below $2. I should thank him though because I got 500 more shares when it went to $2 , and I do think he had something to do with it ;)
Lets just keep bumping his stupid posts off and down on the list by starting many new topics with positive titles, it will drive him crazy!
Quote from: tokyopua on July 30, 2007, 11:22:09 PM
Quote from: Se7en on July 30, 2007, 04:50:23 PM
I'm helping a bit on the yahoo forum! :)
Saw some of your posts and replied, I got your back!
Man, I have to say it feels really good to see a 25% up day in CIMT and to see that basher flail. It really does seem now he wont get shares below $2. I should thank him though because I got 500 more shares when it went to $2 , and I do think he had something to do with it ;)
Lets just keep bumping his stupid posts off and down on the list by starting many new topics with positive titles, it will drive him crazy!
Yes, you are right, I'm working on it! :)
Hopefully CIMT will give us a hand when they report so we can completely get rid of that basher! >:D
I tried to help a little too.
hopefully this will really explode to the upside!
;)
Applauds to pinoleropuro and Se7en haha! Especially Se7en it looks like you just swamped the basher on YMB this morning! >:D :D ;D
me too posting on yahoo boards since a couple of weeks...my nick is Pentagon.
look at this msg posted last Friday, when I noticed something strange on bid/ask movements.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=1373&mid=1373&tof=58&frt=2
I'm joining in the fun on Yahoo as well today.
Love to make those bashers sweat....
Nice move yesterday for CIMT .. hoping for a little pb today & I will join y'all.
Quote- The CFO specifically said: "if you go back and study our financial reports, you'll see that seasonality always affects the 1st quarter results", but "we expect strong revenue growth from the recently launched Cimatron 8 version, because we'll enter brand new markets";
- Microsystem had $10.5 M in revenues in 2006 and it was profitable (they didn't disclose by how much). CIMT expects Microsystem to remain profitable in 2007 and beyond and the acquisition will be accretive to earnings starting in Q3 2007
- YMB
Wouldn't the cash to buyout Microsystem decrease the net margin for the quarter it was bought out thus temporarily decreasing the valuation price?
The only way I could make sense of this without it adversely affecting the valuation is if the buyout was put into 'expense' but added to the 'asset' class (thus balancing the expense) where the Microsystem's profitability would be the 'value added' of the synergy. Does anyone know how this does/doesn't affect the valuation of the stock for Q2?
just thinking,
:-\
I know some people have the strategy of buy on rumors and sell on news.
could it also be that that is the reason for the run up we've had and come 2Q results it will go back down because of people with this strategy?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 04:36:29 PM
just thinking,
:-\
I know some people have the strategy of buy on rumors and sell on news.
could it also be that that is the reason for the run up we've had and come 2Q results it will go back down because of people with this strategy?
Everything is possible but you can also say that CIMT is undervalued at this point, so many people are buying because of that! Who knows, as long as it goes up, fine by me ... :)
QuoteWouldn't the cash to buyout Microsystem decrease the net margin for the quarter it was bought out thus temporarily decreasing the valuation price?
No, those are different things. The cash used to buy Microsystems will be reduced in the balance sheet, but it doesn't have an effect on net profit margin.
QuoteThe only way I could make sense of this without it adversely affecting the valuation is if the buyout was put into 'expense' but added to the 'asset' class (thus balancing the expense) where the Microsystem's profitability would be the 'value added' of the synergy. Does anyone know how this does/doesn't affect the valuation of the stock for Q2?
I don't know what you mean by "valuation" kpunarc, but the way things work is, CIMT bought an additional 23.5% of Microsystems for, if I recall correctly, $600,000, so this cash will be removed from the balance sheet. CIMT now owns 51% of Microstrategy so it will consolidate that company's revenues and profits starting in Q3 (51% of them, that is).
We get less cash balance, but more quarterly revenues and profits.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 04:36:29 PM
just thinking,
:-\
I know some people have the strategy of buy on rumors and sell on news.
could it also be that that is the reason for the run up we've had and come 2Q results it will go back down because of people with this strategy?
It will depend on the actual results pinoleropuro. If they're very good, more bulls will show up to buy. If they're bad, people will sell.
CIMT was talked about on another website:
OTCPicks.com: OTCPicks.com Stocks to Watch for Tuesday, July 31st CYPW, BZET, CIMT, LTHU, NWVM, AANI (http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.40ea2d437f8cd660ff239bad49fbca787ba34fd54542d4f26d3ab8e27b8993cc)
We're not alone :)
Hehe, I see Tokyopua and Se7en are doing a great job at the Yahoo message board. I'll also post something there tomorrow.
We had another advance day, with volume picking up a bit too. I don't know if this is the start of the "real" move that will take the stock above $15, but I'm very confident on the long term outcome and I'll keep holding CIMT.
Thx for clearing that up David!
Like Tokyopua said, we're trying to send these negative posts of that basher to the bottom of the forum! :)
I'm growing in my 'pumper role' ... ;D
Independent Study Shows Cimatron Customers Deliver Tools Faster
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070801/ukw008.html?.v=101
http://www.forum.cimatron.com/forums/aberdeen/Aberdeen-Report.asp
Quote from: Se7en on July 31, 2007, 05:39:07 PM
Thx for clearing that up David!
Like Tokyopua said, we're trying to send these negative posts of that basher to the bottom of the forum! :)
I'm growing in my 'pumper role' ... ;D
Yep, no doubt you are ... I will always remember when I wrote a small article about one penny stock (AMRE.OB), spread it across several message boards and that helped fuel a 1,500% rise in three days :o
I wonder if I'll ever make another trade like that.
Anyway, over the long term, only fundamentals matter. MONEY brought us a press release issued by CIMT today saying its products are beating the competition:
• Independent Study Shows Cimatron Customers Deliver Tools Faster (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070801/ukw008.html?.v=101)
PR Newswire (Wed 4:39am)
I believe the study is accurate.
What was that company in the CAD/CAM software industry that was taken over by more than $3 B? It's back on this thread, I don't remember the name now ... but it goes to show that any company that is able to become very competitive in the field has an enormous market waiting for it.
CIMT went down 3.2% today on profit taking, I'll continue holding the stock.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 06:39:27 AM
I tried to help a little too.
;)
I just realized now though its probably better not to reply to any of his posts though because that just brings his topics to the top of the list again. When people come to the YMB board its probably better they see mainly positive topics, and one basher having conversations with himself.
Of course fundamenals will eventually push CIMT higher, whether it takes this quarter or next, and that will weed him out, but for now he is at it again, ugh...
yeah, you're right. :)
I just saw your post. keep up the good work amigo ;D
Quote from: tokyopua on August 02, 2007, 12:06:10 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 06:39:27 AM
I tried to help a little too.
;)
I just realized now though its probably better not to reply to any of his posts though because that just brings his topics to the top of the list again. When people come to the YMB board its probably better they see mainly positive topics, and one basher having conversations with himself.
Of course fundamenals will eventually push CIMT higher, whether it takes this quarter or next, and that will weed him out, but for now he is at it again, ugh...
Yep, that's what I've been doing, not replying to his negative posts so they will disappear but instead create new positive ones and reply to other positive posts, so please, also keep replying to mine!
Quote from: Se7en on August 02, 2007, 04:44:40 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on August 02, 2007, 12:06:10 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 31, 2007, 06:39:27 AM
I tried to help a little too.
;)
I just realized now though its probably better not to reply to any of his posts though because that just brings his topics to the top of the list again. When people come to the YMB board its probably better they see mainly positive topics, and one basher having conversations with himself.
Of course fundamenals will eventually push CIMT higher, whether it takes this quarter or next, and that will weed him out, but for now he is at it again, ugh...
Yep, that's what I've been doing, not replying to his negative posts so they will disappear but instead create new positive ones and reply to other positive posts, so please, also keep replying to mine!
OK, am doing that, and keep doing it. I completed my shift for today, 8 posts so far, the basher is really persistent today.
Great work Tokyo and Se7en, I gave you a hand:
CIMT has 5 bags in it (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=1596&mid=1596&tof=1&frt=2)
I couldn't stand it, I had to join the fun.
krs_shell hehe
I have pitched in as well. Some of the posts are actually hillarious. At least we are having some fun holding CIMT. I laughed at the title "who gave penny_ass cheap shares?" Some good sense of humour. ;D
Quote from: berloga on August 02, 2007, 04:16:13 PM
I have pitched in as well. Some of the posts are actually hillarious. At least we are having some fun holding CIMT. I laughed at the title "who gave penny_ass cheap shares?" Some good sense of humour. ;D
I just applauded you and everyone else who has been posting. Its amazing, even with all of us posting, the basher finds time to answer. I have to think this individual has no life, its insane.
But, yeah, its a lot of fun getting him all riled up at me to where he is resorting to childish taunts and cussing. I know he is there steaming over his keyboard.
Anyway, somewhat ugly candle on CIMT today, but I plan to add to my position since it sat right on the 200sma. Its like we are saying on YMB, even if earnings were low, most of it should be priced in. But any good news, and the gap closes on the upside I think.
Tokyopua helping you with new positive posts, my nick is pentagon.
Great team guys! :-)
I am outside my country and on august 7 probably on travel again somewhere, but I will find some way to watch the earnings...some internet point may be! :-)
Good job bashing the basher there. His LMAO remark is hysterical. He has trapped himself for good. ;D
If I'm not mistaken somebody mentioned about our community buying just 100 shares on a given day and I feel if we can do this it's going to help a lot to increase volume and price.Do you guys think this will work?We have the power if we just use it properly.Somebody has to think of something as long as it's legal.Any suggestions?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 26, 2007, 07:25:54 AM
is it possible that people that have been kicked out of this forum gone out and bash this boards holdings?
if I am out of the park with this one please ingnore the question.
just a thought.
I had a suspesion that Yukii was involved hince the qoute above.
is it really him, if so he really has it in for this stock I think not only should we buy more on the dip but all ban together on the Yahoo board and give it a sunami of positive reinforcement.
what do you guys think?
I am really hoping this thing will definately go to 6 after the earnings not only because I want the stock to go higher but to also prove the basher (Yukii) wrong. ;D
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 02, 2007, 11:17:54 PM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on July 26, 2007, 07:25:54 AM
is it possible that people that have been kicked out of this forum gone out and bash this boards holdings?
if I am out of the park with this one please ingnore the question.
just a thought.
I had a suspesion that Yukii was involved hince the qoute above.
is it really him, if so he really has it in for this stock I think not only should we buy more on the dip but all ban together on the Yahoo board and give it a sunami of positive reinforcement.
what do you guys think?
I am really hoping this thing will definately go to 6 after the earnings not only because I want the stock to go higher but to also prove the basher (Yukii) wrong. ;D
I was almost sure today that the basher was from 3SOF because he told se7en to eat belgian waffles, but then I saw that se7en has Belgium in his profile on YMB. I dont know who it is, but it makes so little sense, all I know is that its been pretty funny recently to see everyone gang up on him.
Here is my favorite post so far about the basher:
-------------------
"Down_on" gave me a call and told me to apologize on his behalf. He just realised he has a typo in his posts. When he states 'see ya at $1.40 or less, maybe even at $.99 he actually meant 'See ya at $14.00 or more, maybe even at $99.
Apparently as he is paid by the number of posts he makes and as he does this 'service' on many Yahoo boards he accidentally cut and paste in the wrong prices.
He's real sorry for any confusion this may have caused.
Lots of love from Down_on's Mum.
Quote from: tokyopua on August 03, 2007, 12:58:14 AM
Here is my favorite post so far about the basher:
-------------------
"Down_on" gave me a call and told me to apologize on his behalf. He just realised he has a typo in his posts. When he states 'see ya at $1.40 or less, maybe even at $.99 he actually meant 'See ya at $14.00 or more, maybe even at $99.
Apparently as he is paid by the number of posts he makes and as he does this 'service' on many Yahoo boards he accidentally cut and paste in the wrong prices.
He's real sorry for any confusion this may have caused.
Lots of love from Down_on's Mum.
I'm glad you like my work Tokyo. You even fixed my spelling mistake. Cheers ;)
Quote from: AussieTrader on August 03, 2007, 01:50:41 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on August 03, 2007, 12:58:14 AM
Here is my favorite post so far about the basher:
-------------------
"Down_on" gave me a call and told me to apologize on his behalf. He just realised he has a typo in his posts. When he states 'see ya at $1.40 or less, maybe even at $.99 he actually meant 'See ya at $14.00 or more, maybe even at $99.
Apparently as he is paid by the number of posts he makes and as he does this 'service' on many Yahoo boards he accidentally cut and paste in the wrong prices.
He's real sorry for any confusion this may have caused.
Lots of love from Down_on's Mum.
I'm glad you like my work Tokyo. You even fixed my spelling mistake. Cheers ;)
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
CIMT dived 10.7% yesterday on very low volume of just 6,400 shares traded.
Earnings will be out in August 7th, but I'm not very confident on this quarter, because maybe there's a few months lag between a new software product launch and an immediate increase in sales. On the other hand it is possible that in Q1 some costumers delayed their purchases of the CimatronE because they were waiting for the version 8, and that could provide a nice boost.
I'll be especially attentive to the conference call (the next day) to see if we get any clues about how the 3rd quarter is going, not just for Cimatron but also for Microsystems.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
BUY CIMT?
I am available to buy CIMT on a given hour, say 300 shares.
If all community moves at the same time, we can place limit orders all way up and no one filled.
Is it legal or is a market disruption?
p.s. me too continue to post on Yahoo, not so much posts but helping you.
I'm buying hope you guys do the same..
Quote from: terainvestment on August 03, 2007, 05:16:50 AM
BUY CIMT?
I am available to buy CIMT on a given hour, say 300 shares.
If all community moves at the same time, we can place limit orders all way up and no one filled.
Is it legal or is a market disruption?
p.s. me too continue to post on Yahoo, not so much posts but helping you.
Sorry i do not understand. "how do we place limit orders all way up and no one filled"?
I understand limit order but how does the order not become filled? Sorry for asking a dumb question.
Quote from: AussieTrader on August 03, 2007, 01:50:41 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on August 03, 2007, 12:58:14 AM
Here is my favorite post so far about the basher:
-------------------
"Down_on" gave me a call and told me to apologize on his behalf. He just realised he has a typo in his posts. When he states 'see ya at $1.40 or less, maybe even at $.99 he actually meant 'See ya at $14.00 or more, maybe even at $99.
Apparently as he is paid by the number of posts he makes and as he does this 'service' on many Yahoo boards he accidentally cut and paste in the wrong prices.
He's real sorry for any confusion this may have caused.
Lots of love from Down_on's Mum.
I'm glad you like my work Tokyo. You even fixed my spelling mistake. Cheers ;)
That was you? Applaud mate, that was simply hilarious!!!!
lol @ CIMT LVLII. Nice work.
AWESOME GUYS!
I've had to make 20 posts on YMB in the last 24 hours to keep ahead of that damn basher. Thanks to Pinoleropuro for also posting a lot, too.
But today is the last day before earnings, so if we can get some more help to at least reply to positive topics and get them back to the top of the list above the basher posts, that will be great. CIMT is one of the big hopes to help the Main portfolio get back in shape, and we know that we can help the stock price with posts, so if you have a moment, please pitch in!
Coming to the rescue!!! ;D
right behind u ;)
Holding with strong hands. ;)
My applauds to the cavalry, thanks! :D
CIMT is the easiest update to write today, since the stock rose 6% and was the sole bright spot of the Main Portfolio.
Earnings will be out tomorrow after the close. My expectations aren't all that great for this quarter (but I'm confident for the following two quarters), but who knows, anything can happen with CIMT.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Today is the day ... :)
I must say I don't like to hold through earnings but I'm going to make an exception on CIMT, have a positive feeling about it, let's hope I'm right ... :)
The basher on YMB has taken to rating his negative posts as 5 stars and rating down our highly rated posts. so for those still in the battle, remember to rate posts high and rate down his posts that have red stars. I just brought a bunch of the high star posts to the top now, including a great one from David way back in May ;)
News for 'CIMT' - (*DJ Cimatron Reports 9% Rev Growth Over Q2 2006 And $0.04 EPS In Q2 2007)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
August 07, 2007 16:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 05 PM EDT 08-07-07
News for 'CIMT' - (*DJ Cimatron 2Q EPS 4c Vs EPS $0.00 >CIMT)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
August 07, 2007 16:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 05 PM EDT 08-07-07
News for 'CIMT' - (*DJ Cimatron 2Q Rev $5.51M Vs $5.04M, +9.3% >CIMT)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
August 07, 2007 16:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 05 PM EDT 08-07-07
News for 'CIMT' - (Cimatron Reports 9% Revenue Growth Over Q2 2006 and $0.04 EPS in Q2 2007 150% Operating Income Growth Over Q1 2007 16% Growth in Software License Revenues Over Q2 2006)GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, August 7, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ --
Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM
solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced
financial results for the second quarter of 2007.
Cimatron's business and financial results continue to improve compared to the
first quarter of 2007, as well as compared to the second quarter of 2006.
Revenue and profit growth are mostly due to positive acceptance of
recently-launched products. The increase in operating profit in the second
quarter of 2007 consists of more than 80% of the revenue growth in this quarter.
Financial Highlights:
Revenues for the second quarter of 2007 increased by 9.3% to $5.51 million
compared to $5.04 million in the second quarter of 2006. Software license
revenues in the second quarter of 2007 increased by 16.4% compared to the same
quarter in 2006. For the first 6 months of 2007, revenue increased by 4.1% to
$10.84 million, compared to $10.42 million in the same period of 2006. Software
license revenues in the first half of 2007 increased by 8.7% compared to the
same period in 2006.
Gross Profit for the second quarter of 2007 was $4.7 million as compared to $4.1
million in the same period in 2006, a 14.6% increase. Gross margin in the second
quarter was 85% of revenues, compared to 81% of revenues in Q2 2006. In the
first 6 months of 2007, gross profit increased 7.3% to $9.2 million, compared to
$8.5 million in the first 6 months of 2006. Gross margin for the 6 months ended
on June 30th, 2007 was 85% of revenues as compared to 82% of revenues in the
same period of 2006.
Operating Profit in the second quarter of 2007 was $282 thousand, compared to an
operating loss of $(145) thousand in the second quarter of 2006. In the first 6
months of 2007, Cimatron reports an operating profit increase to $395 thousand,
compared to an operating profit of $86 thousand in the first 6 months of 2006.
Net Profit for the second quarter of 2007 was $291 thousand, or $0.04 per
diluted share, compared to a net profit of $18 thousand, or $0.00 per diluted
share recorded in the same quarter of 2006. In the first 6 months of 2007, net
profit increased by 98.3% to $472 thousand, or $0.06 per diluted share, compared
to a net profit of $238 thousand, or $0.03 per diluted share, in the first 6
months of 2006.
Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of
Cimatron, said, "We are very pleased with the consecutive improvement in our
financial and business results, being the result of implementation of our
strategic plan. Cimatron's turnaround is based on broader product offering,
geographical re-focusing and more efficient operations, all of which led to
improved profitability."
Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "We
believe that Cimatron is now well positioned to further increase its market
share and accordingly its revenues in order to become a larger player in the
industry. Following the exercise of the option to increase its holding in
Microsystem to 51%, Cimatron continues to consider M&A opportunities, as part of
its general growth strategy to further increase its offering and global
presence."
Conference Call Information:
Cimatron's management will host a conference call with the investment community
to discuss and review the results, on August 8th, 2007:
The conference call will start at 9:00 EST (16:00 Israel time)
To listen to the conference call, please dial:
From the US: 1-888-668-9141
From Israel: 03-9180688
International: +972-3-9180688
For those unable to listen to the live call, a replay of the call will be
available from the day after the call under the investor relations section of
Cimatron's website, at: www.cimatron.com
About Cimatron
With more than 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of
integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as
manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing
comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles,
enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product
delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the
automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the
symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are
located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and
post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk
and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from
those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives
and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would,"
"will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and
similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify
forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such
forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and
involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability
to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking
statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global
economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and
services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future
acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and
increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the
business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges
Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any
single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no
obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether
as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Cimatron Limited
Consolidated Statements of Income
(US Dollars in thousands, except for per share data)
Three months ended Six months ended
June 30, June 30,
2007 2006 2007 2006
Total revenue 5,511 5,044 10,844 10,418
Total cost of revenue 806 937 1,677 1,871
Gross profit 4,705 4,107 9,167 8,547
Research and development
expenses, net 1,011 1,110 2,107 2,183
Selling, general and
administrative expenses 3,412 3,142 6,665 6,278
Operating income 282 (145) 395 86
Net income $ 291 $ 18 $ 472 $ 238
Net income per share - basic and
diluated $ 0.04 $ 0.00 $ 0.06 $ 0.03
Weighted average number of
shares outstanding
Basic EPS (in thousands) 7,868 7,835 7,852 7,835
Diluted EPS (in thousands) 7,967 7,835 7,871 7,835
Cimatron Limited
Consolidated Balance Sheets
(US Dollars in thousands)
June 30, December 31,
2007 2006
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS:
Total cash, cash equivalents and
short-terms investments $ 8,205 $ 5,597
Other current assets 5,813 5,828
Total current assets 14,018 11,425
Deposits with insurance companies and
severance pay fund 2,532 2,653
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS:
Marketable investments 1,033 1,287
Investments in affiliated companies 683 748
Total long-term investments 1,716 2,035
Net property and equipment 922 1,010
Total other assets 764 784
Total assets $ 19,952 $ 17,907
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Total current liabilities $ 7,823 $ 6,083
Accrued severance pay 2,762 3,003
Minority interest (13) (24)
Total shareholders' equity 9,380 8,845
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 19,952 $ 17,907
Contact:
Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer
Cimatron Ltd.
Tel. +972-3-531-2121
E-mail:
[email protected] Yael Nevat,
Commitment-IR.com
Tel: +972-9-741-8866, +972-50-762-6215
E-mail:
[email protected]SOURCE Cimatron Ltd
CONTACT: Contact: Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer, Cimatron Ltd., Tel. +972-3-531-2121,
E-mail:
[email protected]. Yael Nevat, Commitment-IR.com, Tel: +972-9-741-8866,
+972-50-762-6215, E-mail:
[email protected]URL: http://www.prnewswire.com
www.prnewswire.com
Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
I hope the market likes these numbers.
Looks like a moderate growth. They need a deeper market penetration with the new software releases. David, can you please plug in the new numbers into the model and, adding additional conservatism, get a fair valuation, please?
Quote from: soxguy on August 07, 2007, 04:16:08 PM
I hope the market likes these numbers.
I see no reason why not?!!
Solid numbers with no negative strings attached!
Quote from: berloga on August 07, 2007, 04:27:51 PM
Looks like a moderate growth. They need a deeper market penetration with the new software releases. David, can you please plug in the new numbers into the model and, adding additional conservatism, get a fair valuation, please?
Hi berloga :)
CIMT's results were solid, better than I expected, considering the weak seasonality of the second quarter:
• Cimatron Reports 9% Revenue Growth Over Q2 2006 and $0.04 EPS in Q2 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070807/uktu074.html?.v=2)
PR Newswire (Tue 4:05pm)
They could have made the "net income jumps 16 fold" press release ;D, since net income rose from $18 K in Q2 2006 to $291 K in Q2 2007.
But they opted not to, and I think it's better this way.
Now, the 3rd quarter will probably be super-strong, because of the Microsystem consolidation. And the 4th quarter is seasonally the strongest, with CIMT firing on all cylinders then, with the Cimatron version 8.0 fully in place and Microsystem contributing to revenue and net income.
The company also made strong statements about future acquisitions, which is a way to achieve faster growth, using existing cash in the balance sheet.
Considering berloga's request, I'm not ready to change anything to my valuation model for CIMT at this point, because I think my 20% revenue CAGR estimate and 15% net profit margin estimate are still reasonable and will be achieved.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on August 08, 2007, 06:54:55 AM
They could have made the "net income jumps 16 fold" press release ;D, since net income rose from $18 K in Q2 2006 to $291 K in Q2 2007.
But they opted not to, and I think it's better this way.
But the crazy basher is relentless on Yahoo, (I thought he would give up with this press release) so while CIMT itself opted not to brag about that nice increase, Im posting about the 1600% increase on YMB lol. At least I wont be posting lies like he does...
I was expecting a great opening today....but nothing moves on CIMT.......
David what do you think?
Who listened to the CC?
Quote from: tokyopua on August 08, 2007, 09:22:44 AM
Quote from: David Randolph on August 08, 2007, 06:54:55 AM
They could have made the "net income jumps 16 fold" press release ;D, since net income rose from $18 K in Q2 2006 to $291 K in Q2 2007.
But they opted not to, and I think it's better this way.
But the crazy basher is relentless on Yahoo, (I thought he would give up with this press release) so while CIMT itself opted not to brag about that nice increase, Im posting about the 1600% increase on YMB lol. At least I wont be posting lies like he does...
Yes tokyopua this is very important not to say any lies because it's not a good things to trick people :)
You'er doing a great job with real facts not lies as that damn basher says ...
cimt seems to move in mini explosions. now at 2.50. we'll see.
Yeah, its odd there isnt at least more volume, but the day isnt over. In any case a close above $2.60 would make the chart look a lot more bullish, seems within reach.
I would say that the posting is unnecessary on YMB... if the stock is good it will rebound. Pumping it up will only lead to false gains, because the people that read and post are probably looking for short term gains and will sell as soon as they make 20% or so and send the stock right back down. If this stock is worth anything it will make true gains on normal market activity (according to market indicators).
Just my 2 cents...
Quote from: LSUJay on August 08, 2007, 02:06:54 PM
I would say that the posting is unnecessary on YMB... if the stock is good it will rebound. Pumping it up will only lead to false gains, because the people that read and post are probably looking for short term gains and will sell as soon as they make 20% or so and send the stock right back down. If this stock is worth anything it will make true gains on normal market activity (according to market indicators).
Just my 2 cents...
Yeah, you have a good point long term. I just was tired of seeing the stock go down, wanted to keep it up a bit during the pre-earning period and simply to counter the continual lies.
I honestly dont care to keep evangelizing it continually and would rather let the good results speak for themselves, especially as it appears that basher guy lives for nothing else but to bash CIMT.
I also hate pumping and see enough of it here (spexculito and his miriad of aliases).
However, when the bashers lie, they need to be countered. Legitimate debate is what most everyone wants but there is a dark side that, for whatever reason (money, lack of maturity, meanness...), can be a real ball and chain on low float stocks.
Great job Tokyo !!!
Just my dos centavos as well...
JKN
I think it is now the time for re-entry in CIMT. ;)
1) It has been down a lot.
2) PPS is just broke out from nice pattern.
3) Price is above from moving averages.
4) There is a gap between $3.00 to $3.54 and it seems like CIMT is heading there to close it, based on the current action.
5) From weekly chart view, It bounced from very strong support, below 2 bucks area (also T3ML support). ;D
Possible profit: >50% ;)
Thanks for your comments and analysis guys :)
Quote from: terainvestment on August 08, 2007, 09:51:19 AM
I was expecting a great opening today....but nothing moves on CIMT.......
David what do you think?
Indeed, very low volume in CIMT on the earnings day, just 23,800 shares changing hands. I wasn't expecting a great opening today, because the news wasn't bombastic, just good news. And CIMT, being such a micro cap, needs bombastic news to draw attention.
Anyway, as Terliso says, I expect the stock to move higher on low volume between now and the next earnings release, because yesterday's results were supportive. There was just a bit of selling on the news, but I guess that was it in terms of downside.
Quote from: Se7en on August 08, 2007, 10:20:22 AM
Who listened to the CC?
I didn't, and there's still no replay in the company's website (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en). I expect it to be there for tomorrow's update.
The 2nd quarter went better than expected, but the 3rd and 4th quarters, for different reasons, will probably be much better, perhaps with an EPS of $0.10 in one or both quarters, and if that happens CIMT will probably jump to $5 plus.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Two positives from the earnings release:
«Revenue and profit growth are mostly due to positive acceptance of recently-launched products.»
CimatronE version 8 started well. Probably the product will do even better in Q3 2007, when it's known and tested by the clients.
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "We believe that Cimatron is now well positioned to further increase its market share and accordingly its revenues in order to become a larger player in the industry. Following the exercise of the option to increase its holding in Microsystem to 51%, Cimatron continues to consider M&A opportunities, as part of its general growth strategy to further increase its offering and global presence."»
I enjoy CIMT's renewed ambition. Probably management will take advantage of the company's strong balance sheet to grow through acquisitions, since organic growth is moderate at high single digits. I expect 20% revenue CAGR and we know just Microsystem will account for more than half of this growth.
Everything (except the multiple contraction in the general market) is on track for CIMT to deliver on my long term projections.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
The earnings must have been good for another reason. The "basher" on Yahoo seems to be gone and now only posting under one name, with either neutral or positive posts on CIMT :) It was a real pain posting there contantly to fight with him, seems that isnt necessary for now.
Quote from: tokyopua on August 11, 2007, 11:50:28 AM
The earnings must have been good for another reason. The "basher" on Yahoo seems to be gone and now only posting under one name, with either neutral or positive posts on CIMT :) It was a real pain posting there contantly to fight with him, seems that isnt necessary for now.
He he, it seems he's losing his battle and opted to buy the stock around current levels, instead of waiting for the $1.3 - $1.4 range. I've never seen anyone work so hard and patiently to get his shares at the cheapest price possible. It is a strange but interesting strategy for micro cap illiquid stocks.
I've heard the 2nd quarter conference call (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en), here are my highlights:
- Microsystem has about $1 M in cash and just $500 K in relevant liabilities, due to a loan provided by the Italian government several years ago on favorable terms. Other liabilities are just the ones coming from the normal course of the business - CIMT's management says Microsystem's balance sheet is healthy;
- Microsystem had a net loss of ($170 K) in the first half of 2007, because the company made purchase orders for hardware products that weren't sold to its costumers in the first half due to product shortages. These products are being sold and delivered in Q3 2007 and CIMT's management expects Microsystems to be profitable in the full year 2007;
- CIMT's sales in geographical terms were 57% from Europe, 22% from Asia Pacific, 15% from North America and 6% from the Rest of the World;
- CIMT now has $8.8 M in cash in the balance sheet;
- The company sold 50 licenses more in Q2 2007 than in Q2 2006 because of the new Die Design and 5-axis capabilities in CimatronE version 8.0. Each license costs about $15,000;
- Microsystem sells hardware and has a lower, but not significantly lower, net profit margin than CIMT.
I think everything is set for CIMT to have a very strong 3rd quarter, which I guess can be in the region of a net income of $800 K, or $0.10 EPS.
If this expectation materializes CIMT will certainly make a one day jump to values between $5 and $6, for a start.
The 4th quarter can also be a blowout quarter, because it is seasonally the strongest.
I remain very confident on CIMT's long term outlook and share price appreciation.
Just 3,100 shares traded yesterday in CIMT. The stock bounced a bit. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Very bad day for CIMT, closing down 7.8% on volume above average of 67,500 shares. The stock closed below the 50 days and the 200 days moving averages.
I'm going to blame it on the general market weakness and people's desire to get out of all stocks, good and bad. The volume picking up is actually a good sign, with bulls showing up to buy when the stock trades around $2.
Fundamentally the company was profitable over the past three quarters and I expect the 3rd and 4th quarters to be even stronger. In Q3 or Q4 CIMT will, in my view, post a $0.10 EPS number and then it will jump to values above $5, at least that.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
The $2 support zone provided a 2% bounce for CIMT. I wonder if/when the company will announce another acquisition, that could also be the catalyst for a big upside day:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "We believe that Cimatron is now well positioned to further increase its market share and accordingly its revenues in order to become a larger player in the industry. Following the exercise of the option to increase its holding in Microsystem to 51%, Cimatron continues to consider M&A opportunities, as part of its general growth strategy to further increase its offering and global presence."»
I'll keep holding CIMT.
CIMT started the day very well, rising by more than 10% at one point, but then people saw the rally as an opportunity to sell on strength, an opportunity they didn't have elsewhere, so they sold.
The stock is trading within a symmetrical triangle, we'll see which way will it breakout.
Fundamentally, CIMT is a global niche player which should benefit from worldwide manufacturing growth and its new product offering. The company was profitable for three quarters in a row, and that is the first time this happens since it become a publicly traded company back in 1996.
Q3 numbers will probably be quite strong due to the Microsystem consolidation. Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter, so it should come out strong too, with Cimatron version 8.0 in full power.
so, is it a good bet to double down now before the third quarter results?
:)
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 18, 2007, 07:49:16 AM
so, is it a good bet to double down now before the third quarter results?
:)
I'm thinking the same thing... what are your thoughts David? Mainly about the third quarter because I know you don't recommend dollar cost averaging.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 18, 2007, 07:49:16 AM
so, is it a good bet to double down now before the third quarter results?
:)
I think it is a good idea to buy CIMT before the 3rd quarter earnings release (because it will probably be a blowout quarter), however I always respect a money management policy that doesn't allow me to average down or up on any single stock position. This is because I need to be diversified throughout 14-15 different holdings to be full invested.
QuoteI'm thinking the same thing... what are your thoughts David? Mainly about the third quarter because I know you don't recommend dollar cost averaging.
I believe the 3rd quarter has the potential to be our "$0.10 EPS or more" EPS quarter which would take the stock immediately to the $5-$6 range. This is because CIMT will have Microsystem's help and probably the 3rd quarter will be a very good one for Microsystem, from what CIMT disclosed in the conference call.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
New contract! :)
Cimatron Speeds up Prototype Manufacturing at MAHLE Group
Monday August 20, 9:00 am ET
World Leading Automotive Supplier MAHLE Group Uses Cimatron CAD/CAM for Concurrent Design and Manufacturing of Prototype Tools
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, August 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MAHLE Group, one of the top 30 automotive suppliers worldwide, has successfully implemented Cimatron's (NASDAQ: CIMT - News) integrated CAD/CAM solutions to speed up its prototype production operations.
To address a growing demand, MAHLE Group has added prototype manufacturing to the portfolio of services it provides to its automotive customers. "Prototyping is a critical and challenging phase in the process of automotive part manufacturing nowadays," said Ulrich Boch, manager of the prototype and utilities shop at MAHLE Group. "We often need to have the prototype ready in a very short order, even before the design is completed."
With such demanding time pressures, MAHLE was looking for a CAD/CAM solution that would not only reduce the time of individual tasks but also streamline the entire process from design to production. With frequent engineering changes occurring at the prototype phase, MAHLE needed a system that could allow such changes to be quickly and safely incorporated into existing designs.
Ulrich Boch explained the selection of Cimatron: "Looking back, Cimatron was the right choice for us. We desired to have a continuous system throughout the tool shop, starting from the design up to the milling machine. Cimatron is offering this continuity, as well as the interfaces for Catia and ProE which allow us to exchange product design data."
Functionality and ease-of-use have also played an important role in the selection of Cimatron as the system of choice at MAHLE. "The option to generate a tool set with only a few clicks and the ability to link to standard catalog components of all major manufacturers is highly appreciated by our users," said Marco Brosemer, manager of the tool making shop at MAHLE. "In addition, we find the Quick Compare functionality a key capability for prototype tool making."
Cimatron's Quick Compare functionality reduces the time and effort required to manage and implement engineering changes. The software analyzes and displays changes in design between different versions, allowing the designer to decide which changes to incorporate into the project. Steps that have previously performed, such as the separation of shapes, need not be repeated.
MAHLE's prototype tooling capabilities have increased considerably since it started offering the service. "Our tool shop began producing small tools four years ago; today, the largest tools can reach the dimensions of 800 x 1000 mm and mold clamping forces of up to 800 tons. The Cimatron software has been a significant enabler of our success in building up these capabilities in such a short time," said Boch.
About MAHLE
With an annual turnover of more than 4.3 billions Euros (5.8 billions USD) in 2006, the MAHLE Group is one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world. Being the leading manufacturer of components and systems for the combustion engine and its periphery, MAHLE is ranking among the top 3 system suppliers of piston systems, cylinder components, valve drive systems, air management systems, and liquid management systems. The company employs more than 40,000 people at 110 production sites and seven research and development centers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070820/uksu001.html?.v=74 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070820/uksu001.html?.v=74)
I wonder what made it come back down? it was at 2.85 at one point? hmm
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 20, 2007, 12:25:40 PM
I wonder what made it come back down? it was at 2.85 at one point? hmm
It was? I've only got 2.391 for the high.
when i pulled the quote from my pda phone that is what i got. dunno? hmm
i just checked the yahoo board and the bashers are relentless what's it going to take for these guys to stop? i even saw la onda posting now. its crazy!
QuoteNew contract! :)
Hi Se7en, thanks for posting the press release out at 9:00 ET:
• Cimatron Speeds up Prototype Manufacturing at MAHLE Group (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070820/uksu001.html?.v=74)
PR Newswire (Mon 9:00am)
I wouldn't call this a "new contract", but just another costumer added to the 20,000 plus CIMT already had in its history.
I think they issued the press release to show their products are being used by large corporations like MAHLE, but it doesn't have a material impact on revenues or earnings, because a software license probably costs about the same for small or large costumers (about $15,000 for each software license).
Quote from: BigSully1 on August 20, 2007, 12:44:48 PM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 20, 2007, 12:25:40 PM
I wonder what made it come back down? it was at 2.85 at one point? hmm
It was? I've only got 2.391 for the high.
I also have $2.391 as the high of the day. It is the top of a symmetrical triangle.
For tomorrow I have a technical support at $1.93 and resistance at $2.34.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 20, 2007, 03:12:28 PM
i just checked the yahoo board and the bashers are relentless what's it going to take for these guys to stop? i even saw la onda posting now. its crazy!
I guess a "$0.10 EPS quarter" will just kill all bears in CIMT. I believe that's coming in Q3 or Q4, everything is setting up for a blowout quarter. With a "$0.10 EPS quarter" it will be easy to justify CIMT trading between $6 and $8, so I guess at least $5 will be guaranteed if the numbers are achieved.
Over the next updates we'll study what will be needed, in terms of revenues and net profit margin, for CIMT to have such an outstanding quarter.
QuoteOver the next updates we'll study what will be needed, in terms of revenues and net profit margin, for CIMT to have such an outstanding quarter.
Since CIMT has 7,967,000 shares outstanding, it will need to have net income of $796,700 to achieve $0.10 EPS in one quarter.
If we consider 10% revenue growth from Q3 2006 (growth was at 9% in Q2), when the company had revenue of $5,014,000, we'll get Q3 2007 revenue at $5,515,400 for CIMT alone. But we'll also have Microsystem contributing to Q3 numbers, where CIMT has a 51% stake. Since Microsystem annual sales are about $10.5 M, I figure it will be about $2.5 M in Q3 2007. 51% of this is $1.275 M.
Adding CIMT's and Microsystem's expected revenues I get a Q3 revenue estimate of $6.79 M.
For CIMT to achieve the $0.10 EPS, or $796,700 net income, it will need to have a net profit margin of 11.73%. CIMT never achieved this, the highest it had was 9.24% in Q4 2006. So, $0.10 EPS isn't impossible, but perhaps not attainable in Q3 2007.
Maybe we'll get just a $0.06 - $0.08 EPS quarter in Q3 and only in Q4 we'll get the $0.10 plus quarter, with seasonality affecting the numbers in a positive way.
Longer term I can only see CIMT growing more and expanding its net profit margin, since the major R&D effort is behind us. I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
would you say then that it could possibly close the gap down to around $1.38/share? short term that is.
I sure hope that is not the case.
I am tired of the basher on yahoo board being right.
>:(
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 21, 2007, 10:10:34 PM
would you say then that it could possibly close the gap down to around $1.38/share? short term that is.
I sure hope that is not the case.
I am tired of the basher on yahoo board being right.
>:(
The $.10 EPS estimate David made would boost the stock up to $6 to $8 per David, but I only see the gap closing if they posted a decline YOY or negative EPS. But anything greater than zero would only test the recent lows IMO, not fill the gap.
BTW, not sure why you would be tired of the basher "being right" because for the most part he is wrong daily, he has been calling for $1.40 or $.99 by tomorrow or next week for months now, calls for low closes that never happen, etc.. Seems to me he is always WRONG lol.
But in general, Im tired of the basher too, but I realize that he or she is either from another company, is literally insane, or is a paid basher or short. Nothing else can explain that much effort to bash a microcap.
David, of all your main portfolio picks this one is one which I have the most reservations for decent returns. It seems to me that this industry is dominated by huge players (Autodesk, MicroStation, Dassault, etc), and to hope that a relatively small company such as CIMT to effectively compete against the big players seems like spitting against the wind in my humble opinion. In my business I use AutoCAD everyday as my primary design-engineering software program and I cannot even think about changing to anything else.
BTW I do think this period we are facing now with the credit crunch is a very serious threat to the equities market but if the Fed and other world banks are determined to calm market jitters in a proactive manner without inciting inflationary fears and are successful at it then this will indeed be looked upon as a fantastic buying opportunity for a lot of great, undervalued stocks.
Quote from: tokyopua on August 21, 2007, 11:54:29 PM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 21, 2007, 10:10:34 PM
would you say then that it could possibly close the gap down to around $1.38/share? short term that is.
I sure hope that is not the case.
I am tired of the basher on yahoo board being right.
>:(
The $.10 EPS estimate David made would boost the stock up to $6 to $8 per David, but I only see the gap closing if they posted a decline YOY or negative EPS. But anything greater than zero would only test the recent lows IMO, not fill the gap.
BTW, not sure why you would be tired of the basher "being right" because for the most part he is wrong daily, he has been calling for $1.40 or $.99 by tomorrow or next week for months now, calls for low closes that never happen, etc.. Seems to me he is always WRONG lol.
But in general, Im tired of the basher too, but I realize that he or she is either from another company, is literally insane, or is a paid basher or short. Nothing else can explain that much effort to bash a microcap.
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt (http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt)
check out this link. I first saw this listed by La Onda a while back on another stock and I have been using it for other stocks.
first of all I don't know how reliable this link is but nontheless it has support 1 at 1.66 and 2nd support at .82
for David's portfolio and my little crummy portfolio's sake, I pray to God it doesn't mean that if it doesn't reach EPS of $0.10 it would be looked at as a negative and make the stock go to either of those support levels.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 22, 2007, 12:20:48 AM
Quote from: tokyopua on August 21, 2007, 11:54:29 PM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 21, 2007, 10:10:34 PM
would you say then that it could possibly close the gap down to around $1.38/share? short term that is.
I sure hope that is not the case.
I am tired of the basher on yahoo board being right.
>:(
The $.10 EPS estimate David made would boost the stock up to $6 to $8 per David, but I only see the gap closing if they posted a decline YOY or negative EPS. But anything greater than zero would only test the recent lows IMO, not fill the gap.
BTW, not sure why you would be tired of the basher "being right" because for the most part he is wrong daily, he has been calling for $1.40 or $.99 by tomorrow or next week for months now, calls for low closes that never happen, etc.. Seems to me he is always WRONG lol.
But in general, Im tired of the basher too, but I realize that he or she is either from another company, is literally insane, or is a paid basher or short. Nothing else can explain that much effort to bash a microcap.
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt (http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt)
check out this link. I first saw this listed by La Onda a while back on another stock and I have been using it for other stocks.
first of all I don't know how reliable this link is but nontheless it has support 1 at 1.66 and 2nd support at .82
for David's portfolio and my little crummy portfolio's sake, I pray to God it doesn't mean that if it doesn't reach EPS of $0.10 it would be looked at as a negative and make the stock go to either of those support levels.
The basher has gotten to you man, get yourself out of the Matrix Neo!
$0.10 is a sort of best case scenario that would rocket the stock up. I think the only way you get to the gap at $1.60 again is 3 months from now if they report $.01 or something like that or if the general market tanks massively (but even then, this is an Israeli company with a strong balance sheet, its not impacted much by the overall market in the US).
BTW, didnt even click that link but its clear from the chart that there is very strong support around the $1.40, so it seems that that software missed that. I SERIOUSLY doubt that CIMT will ever see that $.82 zone ever again.
I posted on YMB, but if you look at that symettrical triangle that David has in his chart, it has a breakout target of about $3.00. The only way I see it breaking to the downside is if the company releases some kind of really bad news. That is doubtful, they seem to be interested in telling all good news right now. If they release some more good news in the next week or two I bet you see a strong marubozu up breaking out of that symetrical triangle. It could happen even without any specific news, you already see little spikes up happening intraday.
I would say downside is very limited from now until earnings release, and you can see that upside of $3.00 where coincidentally we again start to see resistance from the gap. If you feel uncomfortable with the size of you CIMT position, I think you will get a chance to lighten up soon. Just my opinion of course, but I think the chart and fundamentals back it up.
Quote from: capricho on August 22, 2007, 12:04:15 AM
David, of all your main portfolio picks this one is one which I have the most reservations for decent returns. It seems to me that this industry is dominated by huge players (Autodesk, MicroStation, Dassault, etc), and to hope that a relatively small company such as CIMT to effectively compete against the big players seems like spitting against the wind in my humble opinion. In my business I use AutoCAD everyday as my primary design-engineering software program and I cannot even think about changing to anything else.
BTW I do think this period we are facing now with the credit crunch is a very serious threat to the equities market but if the Fed and other world banks are determined to calm market jitters in a proactive manner without inciting inflationary fears and are successful at it then this will indeed be looked upon as a fantastic buying opportunity for a lot of great, undervalued stocks.
A few years ago we probably wouldnt have thought that a small company called Under Armour could start competing with Nike on an appreciable scale, but if you have innovative products, that is what happens over time.
Besides, if I understand correctly (and I may not), CIMT has its strenght specifically in CAM as opposed to CAD in general (to answer your concern about the dominance of AutoCAD). When you are small, you go for the very niche markets that your competitors may not be that interested in, dominate there first, then branch out. To use the Under Armour analogy, they put lots of effort into football first, and now are branching out.
Finally, as small as CIMT is, ANY market share it can take from the big guys will have a much larger impact on its bottom line, but will be sort of like a small nuisance to the bigger competitors.
Thanks tokyo, I think you're right. I better stop visiting the YMB for a while cuz its really bothering me to read that guy's trash.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 22, 2007, 07:12:35 AM
Thanks tokyo, I think you're right. I better stop visiting the YMB for a while cuz its really bothering me to read that guy's trash.
Its just my opinion, maybe David will have more to say on the matter. But yes, give yourself a break from YMB, I just go in there every now and then now, its less necessary than when earnings were about to be announced.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 22, 2007, 07:12:35 AM
Thanks tokyo, I think you're right. I better stop visiting the YMB for a while cuz its really bothering me to read that guy's trash.
They are either paid to do that or are invalids who have nothing else to do with their time. No normal person has time to spend hours on those boards bashing stocks they have no interest in!
What I wonder about CIMT is why does it trade so few shares? Some days it does not trade at all until later in the day. If one has a postion & it goes bad ... who would you sell to?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 21, 2007, 10:10:34 PM
would you say then that it could possibly close the gap down to around $1.38/share? short term that is.
I sure hope that is not the case.
I am tired of the basher on yahoo board being right.
>:(
Let's get one thing straight pinoleropuro. Say CIMT trades at the average valuation of 15 times earnings (this is the current P/E of the S&P 500). I think it should have a higher valuation, but that's another issue.
If the stock posts $0.05 EPS, it should trade at $0.05*4 quarters = $0.20*15 times earnings = $3. If it posts a $0.07 EPS quarter, it should trade at $0.07*4*15 = $4.2. And if we get the $0.10 quarter, with the same method, we get $6 a share.
Since I wrote probably we'll get $0.06 - $0.08 EPS in the 3rd quarter, I would expect the stock to trade around $4.2. Not to go down to close the gap at $1.4. For that to happen CIMT would have to post a loss, and even that wouldn't last, because of the very low Price to Sales Ratio. But I don't think that's going to happen.
I agree with everything Tokyopua posted.
QuoteDavid, of all your main portfolio picks this one is one which I have the most reservations for decent returns. It seems to me that this industry is dominated by huge players (Autodesk, MicroStation, Dassault, etc), and to hope that a relatively small company such as CIMT to effectively compete against the big players seems like spitting against the wind in my humble opinion. In my business I use AutoCAD everyday as my primary design-engineering software program and I cannot even think about changing to anything else.
Thanks for your comments on CIMT capricho, I appreciate them. You see, CIMT is just a $16 M market cap, with annual sales around $23 M. It doesn't take much for it to be worth about $100 M. Just a hair of market share will do the trick. I'm not expecting CIMT to go from micro to medium or mega cap, just to go from micro to small cap. And the fundamental improvement has been happening, the last three quarters were encouraging and the 3rd and 4th quarters will probably be superb. Anyway, thanks for sharing your concerns :)
QuoteIts just my opinion, maybe David will have more to say on the matter. But yes, give yourself a break from YMB, I just go in there every now and then now, its less necessary than when earnings were about to be announced.
Opinions are just that, opinions. And they can't move a stock away from its intrinsic fundamental value for long. I don't think anyone should be concerned if there are people writing negative things about CIMT, they don't have any power to move the stock one way or the other.
QuoteWhat I wonder about CIMT is why does it trade so few shares? Some days it does not trade at all until later in the day. If one has a postion & it goes bad ... who would you sell to?
CIMT has few shares in the market because it never diluted shareholder's value. It's better this way, trust me. Don't worry, there will always be buyers. And if the stock goes down because someone decided to sell a big block of shares due to lack of patience, not a worsening of the fundamental landscape, the stock will recover back up to its intrinsic fundamental value. Inefficiencies have a limit.
Technically CIMT now has a support at $1.94 and a resistance at $2.3. The symmetrical triangle will close in mid September and CIMT will have to break it, one way or the other. I think it will go up, because fundamentals have been improving and clearly the best is yet to come.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 22, 2007, 07:12:35 AM
Thanks tokyo, I think you're right. I better stop visiting the YMB for a while cuz its really bothering me to read that guy's trash.
Why bother reading the YMB at all? Avoid the stress. If there is any pertinent info, it will be posted here, the good "hype" along with credible negative sentiment. Everything you need is right here. My bet is the YMB "bashers" are just cheap, 2 bit, wannabee, longs. Chances are they will miss the upside, because they will always want it cheaper.
Quote from: capricho on August 22, 2007, 12:04:15 AM
David, of all your main portfolio picks this one is one which I have the most reservations for decent returns. It seems to me that this industry is dominated by huge players (Autodesk, MicroStation, Dassault, etc), and to hope that a relatively small company such as CIMT to effectively compete against the big players seems like spitting against the wind in my humble opinion. In my business I use AutoCAD everyday as my primary design-engineering software program and I cannot even think about changing to anything else.
Sure, I can understand that you are resistant to change. You are used to the AutoCad program and why even consider changing a good thing? I imagine you are right, many big companies would be reluctant to changing their software to one produced by a tiny Israeli company. But what about all the smaller design engineering/machining companies and startups? And then there is a whole new market to exploit in China and India still. Lots of opportunities for CIMT to grow immensely and the potential for very large returns to the shareholder, IMO. It won't take alot of improvement for CIMT to show .10/share this Q, in fact, I think it is highly possible, even probable. Look at "tiny" Hurcos-HURC. Many said they could never stand up to the much bigger players in the computer controlled machinery sector. The last four years or so have definitely proven them wrong.
-------------------------------
I am still hoping it does drop back again before next ER as I am not done accumulating this yet. But I'm going to limit to about 3% or so of my port. and let it grow to a higher percentage. That way I will never get stressed out over it regardless what happens.
You guys that talk about doubling up, I wouldn't suggest it, as the daily fluctuations are already making you way too nervous and must already have too much involved here. Keep your hands strong on this one.
Thanks for your take on CIMT BigSully1, I'm glad you appreciate it, as it improves the odds of this being a good long term pick :)
QuoteIt won't take alot of improvement for CIMT to show .10/share this Q, in fact, I think it is highly possible, even probable.
You think so? That would be awesome, because the 4th quarter would probably be even stronger than the 3rd, due to positive seasonality. A $0.10 EPS quarter in Q3 and the following strong Q4 could put CIMT in the $8-$10 range, as the earnings multiple would certainly expand.
Almost no volume today. It's better this way. CIMT is a rocket that needs news to take off, but when it does ... we may very well have a 100% to 200% upside day.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt (http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=cimt)
check out this link. I first saw this listed by La Onda a while back on another stock and I have been using it for other stocks.
first of all I don't know how reliable this link is but nontheless it has support 1 at 1.66 and 2nd support at .82
for David's portfolio and my little crummy portfolio's sake, I pray to God it doesn't mean that if it doesn't reach EPS of $0.10 it would be looked at as a negative and make the stock go to either of those support levels.
[/quote]
hi pinoleropuro,
try this link:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=CIMT&num1=5&cobrand=windchart&mode=stock
support @ 1.91 and 1.41$ but I am totally agreeing with Davids analysis ;)
Holding long & strong
cheers from Singapore
Oliver
QuoteQuote
It won't take alot of improvement for CIMT to show .10/share this Q, in fact, I think it is highly possible, even probable.
You think so? That would be awesome, because the 4th quarter would probably be even stronger than the 3rd, due to positive seasonality. A $0.10 EPS quarter in Q3 and the following strong Q4 could put CIMT in the $8-$10 range, as the earnings multiple would certainly expand.
David check this out! if you're right about your EPS projection of $.10 putting CIMT in the $8-$10 range (which I hope you are right) my wife and I will be most grateful. ;D
c
check this out!
vector vest analysis on CIMT
QuoteVectorVest Stock Analysis of Cimatron Ltd as of 8/24/2007
This report has five major sections.
Capital Appreciation Analysis
Dividend Analysis
Price-Volume Data
Sales / Market Capitalization Information
Summary
Business: Cimatron Ltd, (CIMT) Cimatron, Ltd. engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and support of a family of computer-aided design/computer aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software products. It offers Cimatron E, which provides tools, applications, and process-automation solutions for the tooling and manufacturing industries. The Cimatron E product family includes various modules, including Designer Solution that provides users with 3D design and modeling capabilities, as well as associative 2D drawing and sketching functions; NC Solution, which offers milling, drilling, simulation, and verification capabilities up to 2.5 axes + 2X Positioning; Master Solution, which includes various features of the Designer Solution and the NC Solution integrated into an end-to-end system; Electrode Solution, which includes various tools necessary to create and design electrodes out of a given part model; Electrode Pro Solution, which includes the tools necessary to create, design, and manufacture EDM electrodes; Student Package, a limited Cimatron package for students' home use; and View Only System that provides tools to view and check CAD/CAM projects. The company sells its products to various industries, including automotive, aviation and aerospace, household goods, mold and die making, machinery and tools, and telecommunications. Cimatron, Ltd. distributes its products directly in Israel, and through a network of independent providers and distributors, as well as through subsidiaries in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, China, France, and India. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Givat Shmuel, Israel.
Business Sector: CIMT has been assigned to the Computer Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Industry Group: CIMT has been assigned to the Computer (Graphics) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Capital Appreciation Analysis Back to top
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CIMT has a current Value of $2.96 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $2.11 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. CIMT has an RV of 1.28, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. CIMT has an RS rating of 0.88, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. CIMT has a Relative Timing rating of 0.98, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. CIMT has a VST rating of 1.05, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. CIMT has a Hold recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. CIMT has a Stop of $2.06 per share. This is $0.05 below CIMT's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. CIMT has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 17.00%, which VectorVest considers to be very good. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.30%).
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. CIMT has a forecasted EPS of $0.15 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. CIMT has a P/E of 14.07. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 30.42. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. CIMT has an EY of 6.98 percent. This is above the current average of 3.30% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. CIMT has a GPE rating of 1.19. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.90%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.35. Therefore, CIMT may be considered to be undervalued.
Dividend Analysis Back to top
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. CIMT does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. CIMT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. CIMT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. CIMT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. CIMT does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Price-Volume Data Back to top
Price: CIMT closed on 8/24/2007 at $2.11 per share
Open: CIMT opened trading at a price of $2.15 per share on 8/24/2007.
High: CIMT traded at a High price of $2.15 per share on 8/24/2007.
Low: CIMT traded at a Low price of $2.11 per share on 8/24/2007
Close: CIMT closed trading at price $2.11 per share on 8/24/2007. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. CIMT traded with a range of $0.04 per share on 8/24/2007.
$Change: CIMT closed unchanged from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: CIMT's Price changed 0.00% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: CIMT traded 3,261 shares on 8/24/2007.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. CIMT has an AvgVol of 19,500 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. CIMT had a %Vol of -83.28% on 8/24/2007
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. CIMT has a CI rating of 1.18, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
Sales / Market Capitalization Information Back to top
Sales: CIMT has annual sales of $21,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. CIMT has a Sales Growth of 9.00% per year. This is good. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): CIMT has annual sales of $2.79 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): CIMT has a P/S of 0.76. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: CIMT has 7,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: CIMT has a Market Capitalization of $16,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Summary Back to top
CIMT is undervalued compared to its Price of $2.11 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Hold.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
Graphs
Cimatron Ltd
Computer (Graphics)
For another stock analysis, please click here.
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Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 26, 2007, 07:40:57 AM
David check this out! if you're right about your EPS projection of $.10 putting CIMT in the $8-$10 range (which I hope you are right) my wife and I will be most grateful. ;D
c
check this out!
vector vest analysis on CIMT
Hi pinoleropuro,
Thanks for sharing that analysis ;) do you use that service?
I don't know how this guys at Vector Vest get this kind of analysis done, apparently its 100% computer processed without human hand, nice technology.
As you know David is taking a week off for vacations, and I'm taking care of the «house» this week, even though I'll be in contact with David on a daily basis.
Here's a little technical
update for CIMT:
CIMT continues to trade inside the triangular pattern with low volume, ascending support near $1.98 and resistance near $2.30 are the reference prices for this pattern. After that the $3.00 is the next resistance level (bottom of the gap down from May 2007), for the down side the last support level would be $1.66.
At the end of July CIMT had a breakout of the downtrend pattern and has been on a distribution stage since then. On my chart I used the exponential moving averages instead of simple averages, and even with that big drop we can still watch the ema-50 above the ema-200.
From an empirical point of view, I would say that CIMT may be preparing itself for an upside breakout, and that would corroborate with the Fundamentals.
Portfolio Instructions:Hold CIMT
Best regards,
Chart Update:
No changes, volume is still dry.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold CIMT
Regards,
sorry Ramsburg but I have thought about getting their service as well.
Vector vest does give I bilieve 3 sotck analysis per day though.
Added some CIMT today @ $2.05! :)
Quote from: Se7en on August 28, 2007, 12:38:08 PM
Added some CIMT today @ $2.05! :)
Nice price, I got more yesterday at $2.15 but of course wished I had waited until today lol. But I really do think that a big up move is coming. I am all averaged in now at $2.50, so probably wont add any more for now (as that is a nice round number for tracking), unless we get some unexpected big drop that is too good to pass up.
Hello all,
I put more in the pot as well, 1300 at 2.0499 :)
Best of luck
I was able to add some more last week 08/20/2007 at 2.00.
its going to be a good one :)
I checked out the Reuters Company Research put out 08/27/2007
this is something I am sure you all already know but I found it interesting.
"Equity Information
Whether you are willing to accept companies that have or don't have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks,
multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for
anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company.
Common Stock NIS.1 Par, 12/06, 19,950,000 auth., 8,167,370 issd., less 166,100 shs. in Treas. @ $159K. Insiders own 66%.
IPO:
3/96, 1,950,000 shares @ $7.5 by Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.
Analyst Footnotes
Look for accounting changes, restructurings,
etc.which may affect how useful historic data is
inassessing future company prospects.
Quarterly C/F are NA. FY'02 Q's are restated & June,
9/05, Sep. &'03 March other income are estimated."
not really sure what it means other than Oppenheimer has 1.95 million shares since IPO at $7.5/share
is this not correct? if this is correct though, I am sure Oppenheimer really wants to see CIMT at least at $7.5/share.
if my assumption is incorrect please forgive my ignorance.
"only two institutions own 0.4% of the 0.01 billion common shares outstanding. This is lower than the average instituional ownership of the Software & Programming industry at 51.1% and lower than the average of the S&P 500 as a whole which is 71.3%"
this can only mean to me that once CIMT gets recognized as the leading and profitable company that it is there is plenty of room for more institutions to take notice.
right?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 28, 2007, 04:47:22 PM
this can only mean to me that once CIMT gets recognized as the leading and profitable company that it is there is plenty of room for more institutions to take notice.
right?
I agree, unfortunately (or maybe not) the market is not efficient...
Chart
Update:
CIMT was down to it's ascending short term support with a slightly volume increase.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold CIMT
Chart Update:
No technical developments for CIMT yet… The stock is still trading inside a tight triangular range and near both the EMA50 and EMA200. We can’t say much because of CIMT liquidity and for being such a micro-cap, but I would say this pattern looks like a bottom distribution with a lot of traders giving up and selling to strong hands that are taking «sniper» opportunities to catch CIMT at low prices when the stock is more vulnerable. In the other hand, an upside breakout would be a much stronger signal rather than the support burst since there is obviously not much downside potential.
Portfolio Instructions:
Hold CIMT
its got ascending and descending patterns, don't know what to make of it other than knowing the fundies are great which would support a abreakout.
Vector Vest supports David's undervalued outlook in fact their EPS forecast is higher than David's.
QuoteEPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. CIMT has a forecasted EPS of $0.15 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
I am really looking forward to the breakout.
;D
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 31, 2007, 11:13:36 AM
its got ascending and descending patterns, don't know what to make of it other than knowing the fundies are great which would support a abreakout.
Vector Vest supports David's undervalued outlook in fact their EPS forecast is higher than David's.
QuoteEPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. CIMT has a forecasted EPS of $0.15 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
I am really looking forward to the breakout.
;D
It will breakout very soon
Quote from: pinoleropuro on August 31, 2007, 11:13:36 AM
its got ascending and descending patterns, don't know what to make of it other than knowing the fundies are great which would support a abreakout.
Vector Vest supports David's undervalued outlook in fact their EPS forecast is higher than David's.
QuoteEPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. CIMT has a forecasted EPS of $0.15 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
I am really looking forward to the breakout.
;D
I think Davids forecast on CIMT's EPS for a full year is higher than $0.15 because he expected between $0.6 and $0.8 for the next quater alone and the 4th quarter should be even better.
I stand corrected. ;D
check this
I posted this on the yahoo board.
Quotepretty tight symetrical triangle.
its above 13day moving average
bollinger bands have been getting tight.
fundies are strong
profitable in the last three quarters
fundies support a breakout
and this is what I got as a response.
Quotepretty tight symetrical triangle.
Incorrect - It is a descending triangle
its above 13day moving average
You have an Elder Ray sell signal based on Negative Divergence
bollinger bands have been getting tight.
Only indicates a significant move coming. BBs never tell you which direction the move will be in. In this case other signals point to it being down.
fundies are strong
Fundamentals are terrible. Huge debt for a company its size. Low cash balance. Low Equity. 3 year sales trend is down to flat in an industry that has grown over 10% a year over the same period.
profitable in the last three quarters
Profitable. Right ten cents a share will get you dime grime and most of that profitability over the last three quarters has been due to gains on exchange rate not operating profit. In fact when you do a proforma of CIMT's Income Statement over the last 3 quarters to include Microsystem SRL, then CIMT has had an operating loss over the last three quarters.
fundies support a breakout
see ya at a $1.40 or less.
Sentiment : Strong Sell
hey Tokyo I need your help!
I really dislike those bashers in the yahoo board. >:(
here is the link to the actual board.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=2210&mid=2212&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=2210&mid=2212&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1)
Quote from: pinoleropuro on September 02, 2007, 08:08:01 AM
I stand corrected. ;D
check this
I posted this on the yahoo board.
Quotepretty tight symetrical triangle.
its above 13day moving average
bollinger bands have been getting tight.
fundies are strong
profitable in the last three quarters
fundies support a breakout
and this is what I got as a response.
Quotepretty tight symetrical triangle.
Incorrect - It is a descending triangle
its above 13day moving average
You have an Elder Ray sell signal based on Negative Divergence
bollinger bands have been getting tight.
Only indicates a significant move coming. BBs never tell you which direction the move will be in. In this case other signals point to it being down.
fundies are strong
Fundamentals are terrible. Huge debt for a company its size. Low cash balance. Low Equity. 3 year sales trend is down to flat in an industry that has grown over 10% a year over the same period.
profitable in the last three quarters
Profitable. Right ten cents a share will get you dime grime and most of that profitability over the last three quarters has been due to gains on exchange rate not operating profit. In fact when you do a proforma of CIMT's Income Statement over the last 3 quarters to include Microsystem SRL, then CIMT has had an operating loss over the last three quarters.
fundies support a breakout
see ya at a $1.40 or less.
Sentiment : Strong Sell
hey Tokyo I need your help!
I really dislike those bashers in the yahoo board. >:(
here is the link to the actual board.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=2210&mid=2212&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1 (http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=2210&mid=2212&tof=1&rt=2&frt=2&off=1)
Don't bother yourself with those bashers at yahoo's zoo ...
a good stock will prove itself sooner or later . I posted a technical analysis on yahoo MB and that idiot basher didn't like it and said this stock was going down , I knew that this basher knows nothing about technical or fundmental analysis ...
He'll never quit as long as he gets paid ::)
CIMT has a very nice chart , just one way to go ... UP
Quotenot really sure what it means other than Oppenheimer has 1.95 million shares since IPO at $7.5/share
is this not correct? if this is correct though, I am sure Oppenheimer really wants to see CIMT at least at $7.5/share.
Hi pinoleropuro, nice to talk to you again :)
That's incorrect, Oppenheimer placed/sold the 1.95 million shares to individual investors at $7.5 which was CIMT's IPO price back in 1996. Check the chart since the IPO:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40066;image)
The company is still about 65% owned by insiders, however they're not the same as in 1996:
«In February 2002, two private holding companies, Koonras Technologies Ltd., or Koonras, a subsidiary of Polar Communications Ltd., and DBSI Investments Ltd. or DBSI, consummated a transaction with Zeevi Computers and Technology Ltd., or ZCT, by which they acquired, for approximately $9,900,000, all of our Ordinary Shares previously held by ZCT, representing 64.3% of our share capital (including in this calculation 166,100 of our ordinary shares which we have repurchased and which, pursuant to Israeli law, cannot be voted and possess no rights other than upon liquidation). Following this transaction, each of Koonras and DBSI beneficially owned approximately 33% of our ordinary shares and each currently continues to own approximately 32% of our ordinary shares.»
Se7en is right, my $0.06-$0.08 EPS estimate is for the 3rd quarter, the Vector Vest $0.15 estimate is for a full 12 month period.
Considering the next 12 month period I expect about 7 cents in Q3, 10 cents in Q4 and about 8 cents both in Q1 and Q2 2008, so this gives me a $0.33 EPS estimate for the next 12 months, much higher than the Vector Vest automatic estimate.
Thinking just of the 3rd quarter for now, comparisons will be favorable, since with Microsystem's help CIMT will probably post something like 7 cents EPS and in Q3 2006 the company had a 4 cent loss per share.
Technically the stock is right at the upper limit of the symmetrical triangle we've been talking about and looks set to make a bullish breakout.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
great to have you back amigo ;D
I hope you and the family had a great time.
now lets gettem tiger.
hola! senor David, I hope you get better soon.
looks like CIMT is still within the symetrical triangle. and according to the fast stochastics its oversold.
let's see what it does.
p.s.
take care David.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on September 05, 2007, 07:42:02 AM
hola! senor David, I hope you get better soon.
looks like CIMT is still within the symetrical triangle. and according to the fast stochastics its oversold.
let's see what it does.
p.s.
take care David.
Hi pinoleropuro, I'm feeling better now, thanks.
As you all know I'm expecting very strong results for the 3rd and 4th quarters, but CIMT isn't the type of stock that discounts good news ... it just reacts when they hit the wires.
The 3rd quarter earnings news will only be known in mid November, so probably we'll have a long wait before any meaningful action in the stock. Unless they announce a new acquisition, that could also provide a big boost to the share price. They said at the 2nd quarter conference call they were studying acquisitions, but didn't provide any timetable, so ...
I'll patiently keep holding CIMT for the long term.
One of the problems of investing in micro-caps is that, because there isn't a lot of people paying attention to them, they often just react when there's meaningful news. This way we, as investors, don't get technical clues that we're right before the event actually happens.
Anyway, if we forget the positive expectations I have for the future, and consider just the past, CIMT had EPS of $0.133 in the past 3 quarters. Considering a 12 month period it would be $0.177.
This means the stock is trading at 11.9 times earnings, while the Technical Software industry (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT) trades at 34.57 times earnings.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Nothing new on CIMT, as there weren't any news out and the stock is still stuck in its symmetrical triangle.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
There weren't any news out but, at least on my chart, CIMT closed above its symmetrical triangle pattern, even though it was just barely and on very low volume of 4,000 shares.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
No news out for CIMT and just 1,700 shares traded.
According to the 2nd quarter conference call, Microsystems SRL had losses in the first half of the year, thus dragging down CIMT's earnings, which were still positive with $0.063 EPS. However, management said Microsystem's losses were due to some kind of hardware shipment delay, and they expect the company to be profitable in the whole 2007. So the 2nd half will probably be very strong, because it needs to more than compensate the 1st half losses. This is good because CIMT will start consolidating Microsystems in the 3rd quarter.
I believe the 3rd quarter will be quite strong, at about $0.07 EPS for CIMT. The 4th quarter will be even stronger, because then positive seasonality comes into play.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
check this story out! you guys think this could have an adverse effect on any Israel based company?
Report: US to attack Iran in 8-10 months
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST Sep. 13, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany's unwillingness to impose further sanctions on Iran has pushed the United States closer towards a decision on a military strike, FOX News reported on Wednesday.
According to the report, Germany's decision has spurred senior US army officials to try and convince US Foreign Secretary Condoleezza Rice to abandon once and for all the diplomatic route of preventing a nuclear Iran. The report further stated that the date of preference for an attack against Iran is in eight to 10 months - after the US presidential candidates for both the Democrats and the Republicans have been chosen, but before the major presidential campaign kicks off.
The report stated that the attack would be comprised of two main strategies: cutting off the Iranian gas supply, which the US hopes would pressure the Iranian people towards action against their government, and an aerial bombing campaign, which would be meant to paralyze Iranian defenses and allow American bombers to destroy the nuclear facilities.
Opponents to a military strike claim that an attack would require at least one week of intense bombing, and that it would only set the Iranian nuclear program back a few years, the report said. Two other claims of the opponents is that an American strike would provoke Iran into attacking Israel, and that abandoning diplomatic action would negatively impact Iraq and the US troops stationed there.
Cimatron to Partner With Leading Machine Vendors at EMO
Friday September 14, 5:23 am ET
Leading Machine Vendors Will Use Cimatron's Software to Showcase a Range of Capabilities Ranging from 3-Axis to 5-Axis Machining
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070914/ukf013.html?.v=56 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070914/ukf013.html?.v=56)
Quote from: pinoleropuro on September 14, 2007, 12:29:10 AM
check this story out! you guys think this could have an adverse effect on any Israel based company?
Report: US to attack Iran in 8-10 months
Hi pinoleropuro :)
As you can see on the table below, taken from CIMT's 2006 form 20-F filed with the SEC, CIMT sells just 3.7% of its products, and provides just 9.7% of its services, in Israel:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40337;image)
So, even though the company is based in Israel I don't think a war which could involve Israel (isn't Israel always at war?) would have much of an impact in the company's revenues or profits.
Quote from: Se7en on September 14, 2007, 07:10:26 AM
Cimatron to Partner With Leading Machine Vendors at EMO
Friday September 14, 5:23 am ET
Leading Machine Vendors Will Use Cimatron's Software to Showcase a Range of Capabilities Ranging from 3-Axis to 5-Axis Machining
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070914/ukf013.html?.v=56 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070914/ukf013.html?.v=56)
Thanks for posting this press release Se7en :)
• Cimatron to Partner With Leading Machine Vendors at EMO (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070914/ukf013.html?.v=56)
PR Newswire (Fri, Sep 14)
The press release doesn't contain any material fundamental information, so it didn't have much of an impact in the share price, with just 6,700 shares changing hands.
Technically the stock has been bouncing every time it approaches the $2 level, refusing to trade lower than that ... fundamentally the company is already deeply undervalued, if it were to trade below $2 it would be a steal.
The 3rd quarter, but even more so the 4th, will be crucial to make CIMT fly over $5 ... we just need about $0.15 EPS combined in the two quarters (the second half of 2007) for the stock to push up by more than 100% from current levels, and it would still be very attractive at $5.
My bet goes to $0.07 EPS in Q3 (due to Microsystem's help) and about $0.10 EPS in Q4 (this is no big deal, CIMT already achieved $0.07 EPS in Q4 2006 - without Microsystem).
We'll see what the actual numbers are. I'll patiently keep holding CIMT for the long term.
First of all lets hope there will be no war, but even if a low volume of sales
and services are apropiated to Israel, the fact that this company is based
in that country makes it very risky now days, because if there is a war, their
supply sources from abroad will be jeopardized and I believe thats the reason
for such low trading volumes and price.
On the other hand if things hopefully go peaceful until Mr. Bush hands over
the US Government, the scenario could be different.
Good luck to all holders.
Quote from: jorgegr on September 16, 2007, 09:11:03 PM
First of all lets hope there will be no war, but even if a low volume of sales
and services are apropiated to Israel, the fact that this company is based
in that country makes it very risky now days, because if there is a war, their
supply sources from abroad will be jeopardized and I believe thats the reason
for such low trading volumes and price.
On the other hand if things hopefully go peaceful until Mr. Bush hands over
the US Government, the scenario could be different.
Good luck to all holders.
This "War" worry doesn't seem to be affecting SILC
I believe it's basically a non-worry for CIMT.
Quote from: kslifka on September 16, 2007, 09:58:06 PM
Quote from: jorgegr on September 16, 2007, 09:11:03 PM
First of all lets hope there will be no war, but even if a low volume of sales
and services are apropiated to Israel, the fact that this company is based
in that country makes it very risky now days, because if there is a war, their
supply sources from abroad will be jeopardized and I believe thats the reason
for such low trading volumes and price.
On the other hand if things hopefully go peaceful until Mr. Bush hands over
the US Government, the scenario could be different.
Good luck to all holders.
This "War" worry doesn't seem to be affecting SILC
I believe it's basically a non-worry for CIMT.
Also...the low trading volume is probably due to small market cap...low float...and lack of news...at least for right now. ;)
Quote from: kslifka on September 16, 2007, 10:00:53 PM
Quote from: kslifka on September 16, 2007, 09:58:06 PM
Quote from: jorgegr on September 16, 2007, 09:11:03 PM
First of all lets hope there will be no war, but even if a low volume of sales
and services are apropiated to Israel, the fact that this company is based
in that country makes it very risky now days, because if there is a war, their
supply sources from abroad will be jeopardized and I believe thats the reason
for such low trading volumes and price.
On the other hand if things hopefully go peaceful until Mr. Bush hands over
the US Government, the scenario could be different.
Good luck to all holders.
This "War" worry doesn't seem to be affecting SILC
I believe it's basically a non-worry for CIMT.
Also...the low trading volume is probably due to small market cap...low float...and lack of news...at least for right now. ;)
Agreed on both points.
Also, that original article was full of what ifs. Possible recommendations, on a timetable months down the road when you would have a lame duck cabnet that would likely have problems doing all this, and in addition Iran would have to follow through on attacking Israel in response to us attacking them, which would be a waste of resources when they are getting pummeled by us.
Not worried about that article here.
I respect and welcome all opinions, but I'm with the ones saying CIMT's long term destiny doesn't depend much on War or no War between the United States and Iran. And it is a long shot to call a War at this point, as I see it ... people in the US are mostly against the War in Iraq, so there's not enough political support to go after Iran at this point in time.
The Tel-Aviv 100 index has been enjoying a long term bull market, so the Israelis themselves don't seem too worried about the possibility of War:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40368;image)
The recent correction in the Israeli market is of the same magnitude as the one which happened in other developed markets like the US or the European markets.
Going back to CIMT's specific story, I guess it is impossible to draw any conclusion from studying the chart, because volume is too low and the stock has been just bouncing back and forth. This probably won't change until some new and relevant piece of fundamental information arrives.
Going back to the basics, CIMT is a $17 M market cap software company. It had 2006 revenues of $21.5 M, but when it acquires Microsystem completely it will have more than $30 M in annual revenues, so what you have is a software company trading at about 1/2 of one year's revenues, which is rare.
And, after several years of losses, the company posted three profitable quarters in a row and management said the company is ready for sustainable profit growth over the upcoming years.
If we annualize the last three quarters EPS we get $0.177, so CIMT is trading at about 11.5 times earnings, while its industry, the technical software industry, trades at 35.1 times earnings (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=cimt).
Moreover, I expect the upcoming three quarters to be much stronger than the last three, because of CimatronE version 8 new features, entering new markets, positive seasonality in the 4th quarter and finally Microsystem's contribution to revenue and earnings.
I have no doubts CIMT is a great long term investment and I'll keep holding the stock with strong hands.
CIMT, being such a tiny micro cap, is totally independent from the general market movements. The stock only cares about its intrinsic and specific business developments. I like it this way and I like the business. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT refused the $2 level (again) and rose 6.9% on the day. But I guess only positive and relevant news can move it sharply higher from this point, even though it is obviously undervalued. I'm expecting this type of news before the year's end and I'll continue holding CIMT.
News out:
Cimatron to Exhibit Integrated CAD/CAM for Mold Makers at First Asiamold Trade Fair
Thursday September 20, 12:19 pm ET
Participation in Asiamold Signifies Growing Presence in Asian Market
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, September 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for tooling and manufacturing, continues to demonstrate strong presence in the Asian market with participation in the first ever Asiamold trade fair, to be held September 27-29 in Guangzhou, China.
ADVERTISEMENT
"Cimatron has been enjoying significant growth in Asia," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's President and Chief Executive Officer. "The establishment of the Asiamold venue provides us with an excellent opportunity to showcase our best-in-class integrated mold making solution suite."
Cimatron's CAD/CAM solutions address the entire mold making process-from quoting to design, engineering changes, NC programming and EDM -enabling mold makers to deliver higher quality tools at lower costs and shorter cycle times.
A recent independent study by the Aberdeen Group confirms that Cimatron customers are able to achieve significantly faster delivery times than those generally offered in the industry.
With a one-stop dedicated mold design solution, mold makers no longer need to spend valuable time attempting to construct the unique features of a mold using general-purpose CAD applications. Utilizing powerful mold-specific design functions, the entire design work is done in a single environment, allowing mold makers to complete even the largest and most complex molds with unprecedented speed and quality.
Cimatron NC programming is tightly integrated with the design functionality, providing the full range of NC technologies needed to machine any mold, from simple 2.5-axis milling and drilling to complex 5-axis and micro milling.
"We selected Cimatron to replace our previously-used software because it satisfies our functional requirements for the entire mold making process from design to machining," said Mr. Nishibori Tsutomu General Manager of the Kuni-Stars Mechatronics R&D Co. facility in Xiangfan, China. "The software has specialized mold making capabilities that enables us to be more efficient and contributes to faster development time for high quality molds."
"Mold makers that use disparate systems that are not suitable for mold making are finding it tough to meet customer demands for quality and delivery times," said Lang Yan, General Manager, Cimatron China. "We continue to see a strong demand for solutions that provide specific mold making functionality and support the entire design and manufacturing process. It is important for us to show local mold makers how they can leverage Cimatron's solutions in order to be more successful."
Visit Cimatron at Asiamold, September 27-29, 2007
Hall A, Stand #E17
About Cimatron
With more than 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles, enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would," "will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
For More Information Contact:
Idit Pass Lagziel
Marketing Manager
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-5312098
Email:
[email protected] Ilan Erez
Chief Financial Officer
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-531-2121
Email:
[email protected] Yael Nevat
Commitment-IR.com
Phone: +972-3-611-4466
+972-50-762-6215
Email:
[email protected]
Thanks for posting the news Tokyopua :)
• Cimatron to Exhibit Integrated CAD/CAM for Mold Makers at First Asiamold Trade Fair (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070920/ukth068.html?.v=3)
PR Newswire (Thu 12:19pm)
The press release doesn't have anything material, just this small hint:
"Cimatron has been enjoying significant growth in Asia," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's President and Chief Executive Officer.
I've been thinking to why CIMT is now trading at such a low earnings multiple, and I think it is because investor's confidence was abated by the company's somewhat misleading press releases in the past. Remember the "80% growth in China" press release? And the "Cimatron opens two new offices in China to cope with demand?" They just forgot to say that the company's China business was growing from a very small base. Usually companies do this so they can sell some new shares to investors, diluting shareholder's value, but that wasn't the case with CIMT (the two major shareholders, holding 65% of the company, wouldn't authorize that).
I probably should have taken the fat profit I had when I saw those misleading press releases pushing the stock 20% a day, but in this case I was too focused on the long term to see investors would be disappointed over the short term fundamental developments, because their expectations were artificially inflated.
Anyway, this doesn't mean I'm not right over the long term, I'm pretty sure that I am. I see CIMT around $15 two or three years from now and I'll continue holding the stock.
Unless CIMT announces an acquisition or other material event, I guess it will only move meaningfully when it reports 3rd quarter results, in mid November. But when that happens, if we get the $0.07 EPS I'm expecting, the stock will fly to at least $4 - $5. In the 4th quarter we may very well get the desired $0.10 EPS and the stock will probably double again.
I'll keep holding CIMT.
Just 3,700 shares traded on CIMT and no news out. The chart seems to be building a base, or rounding bottom. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
We've had just a bit more volume and price action on CIMT yesterday. I believe this rocket will add 5% or more to the Main by year's end and I'll keep on holding CIMT.
No news out for CIMT. Just 100 shares traded :-[ I'll keep holding.
No news out, just 4,600 shares traded on CIMT. As I studied AVCI today I saw how the market reacts to earnings news, even when they're not sustainable. I expect CIMT to post something like $0.17 EPS over the next couple of quarters and that should put the stock well north of $5.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT is currently the biggest loser in the Main Portfolio (down 24.5% from my buying price), but I still see it as the one with the highest potential.
If you're not familiar with CIMT's story you can read it in this thread's pages. There wasn't any new fundamental information over the weekend. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
got this from the yahoo board. seems to me like it was from one of the bashers too. ???
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, September 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron
(NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for tooling and manufacturing, continues to demonstrate strong presence in the Asian market with participation in the first ever Asiamold trade fair, to
be held September 27-29 in Guangzhou, China.
"Cimatron has been enjoying significant growth in Asia,"
Revenues in Asia
2005 $4.6
2006 5.0
2006 growth 10% - This is not significant growth
2006 total rev 1st 6 mos = $10.4
2007 total rev 1st 6 mos = 10.8
Most of this growth was in Germany
Still no significant growth in Asia.
So where is the significant growth in China?
Ans: This last quarter ending Sep 2007
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie...
No pinol, that is actually a bullish post, the man is saying the "significant growth in Asia" is happening now, in the 3rd quarter :)
yeah, that's why I am confused. one minute he is bashing the next he is posting positive news.
maybe we made him realize what potential CIMT really has.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on October 01, 2007, 08:12:25 AM
yeah, that's why I am confused. one minute he is bashing the next he is posting positive news.
maybe we made him realize what potential CIMT really has.
Yes, his post is a bit confusing. He's saying that since there wasn't significant growth in the past, and the CEO said the following on the September 20 press release:
«"Cimatron has been enjoying significant growth in Asia," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's President and Chief Executive Officer.»
... he thinks the "significant growth" is happening now, in the 3rd quarter.
I'm expecting $0.07 EPS for the 3rd quarter, but we'll only know the reality probably in mid November. There weren't any news out yesterday and the stock traded just 4,700 shares.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Just 6,800 shares changing hands yesterday, without any news. I'll keep holding and waiting for the quarterly earnings news, which I expect to be good in Q3 and spectacular in Q4.
Look at that volume,about a weeks worth. I like that the stock is headed north too.
Look at it again now!
Nice action today, time to fill the gap!
The weekly chart looks great .... :)
It's just the start , huge volume for this tiny traded stock :)
I may have started the move this morning. I bought 5000shares at the ask price at $2.25 this morning... I wanted to buy more being they have business in China...but someone kept stepping in front of my bid.
Either way...lots of volume in the last hour of trading. >:D
I liked the early action this morning,but 26% floors me! Let's see some follow through tomorrow.
I guess, tokyopua's struggle with the Yahoo basher paid off!! ;D
way to go David !!! I am starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. :)
Quote from: berloga on October 03, 2007, 04:50:08 PM
I guess, tokyopua's struggle with the Yahoo basher paid off!! ;D
Haha, yeah, maybe, thanks. But actually what is wierd is that in the last few days he stopped bashing and started posting positive news. Who knows, I was just pretty happy not having looked at the market today to see this great surge forward :-)
Nice white marubozu on CIMT yesterday. I told you there were no permanent losers in the Main Portfolio, just temporary.
There weren't any news out to justify the market action ... perhaps it really was kslifka who started all this (for the wrong reasons), buying 5,000 shares at the offer, which was the previous average volume for an entire day.
I say wrong reasons because CIMT has just about 10%-15% of its revenues coming from China (23% from the Far East region):
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=40713;image)
Anyway, China and the Far East have been gaining in importance.
There's a big gap between $3 and $3.54, as you can see on the chart below. I think it would be more powerful if the stock were to stay below $3 for now, and then, when the good earnings news crosses the wires, the stock jumps above $3.54, leaving an island on the chart, with the gap left open. But I wouldn't mind if we close the gap right away either :)
I maintain my expectation of $0.07 EPS in Q3 and $0.10 EPS in Q4. This should be enough to put CIMT in the $7-$9 range, something like that.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
There's some follow through! Heading north.
Quote from: Garoh on October 03, 2007, 04:11:10 PM
It's just the start , huge volume for this tiny traded stock :)
We need a close above $3 to see the big jump ... so far so good
and also watch out RCH, it recovers fast!
Even though CIMT is deeply undervalued, I don't think it will close above $3.54 before some meaningful news. There's going to be strong resistance in the $3-$3.5 area and we'll probably need very positive news to surpass this.
The good news is that we'll probably get this type of news five weeks or so for now and when we do close above $3.5 I see the stock jumping towards $7 very fast.
Hopefully we won't fall back down to the $2 - $2.20 range, but stay in the $2.5-$3 range while we wait for the earnings news.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Even though CIMT is trading at about 14 times earnings, which is attractive, I guess we'll need positive earnings news to make our move beyond $5.
We've already seen that the 3rd quarter will probably be quite strong, mainly because of two factors:
1) Full market acceptance of the CimatronE version 8;
2) Microsystems SRL consolidation with CIMT and the reverse of a 1st half loss into a profit, as said in the 2nd quarter conference call.
If we get the $0.07 EPS I'm expecting for the 3rd quarter I don't see how CIMT will remain below $5. With $0.10 EPS in the seasonally stronger 4th quarter we'll probably have a $8-$10 stock in Q1 2008. At least this is my expectation.
I'll confidently keep holding CIMT.
CIMT was able to close within the $2.5 - $3 range, as I want it to do.
Last year the company reported 3rd quarter earnings in November 15th. Probably the earnings release date will be about the same this year, so we have about five weeks of waiting for the news. No problem as far as I'm concerned.
In Q3 2006 the news was:
«Revenues for the third quarter of 2006 were $5.0 million, compared to $4.9 million recorded in the third quarter of 2005. Net loss for the quarter was $(281,000), or $(0.04) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(597,000), or $(0.08) per diluted share recorded in the parallel quarter of 2005.»
In Q3 2007 I expect something like $0.07 EPS, so, a meaningful improvement.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio, down 12.8% from my buying price. However, it is also the smallest market cap company ($19.9 M), so it can move very rapidly. I believe CIMT has the potential of going from the biggest loser to the biggest gainer in just a couple of days, if the right news kicks in.
I'm expecting the right news at about November 15 and I'll continue holding CIMT.
Bought some more CIMT yesterday ... :)
I bought in this week too. In at $2.649. Due for another white candle. Trading range getting pretty tight.
Quote from: Se7en on October 11, 2007, 10:38:20 AM
Bought some more CIMT yesterday ... :)
Quote from: buddjas1 on October 11, 2007, 10:50:00 AM
I bought in this week too. In at $2.649. Due for another white candle. Trading range getting pretty tight.
Hi, it's good to know you guys are confident on CIMT. I would be happy if the stock stays within the $2.5 - $3 range until November 15, when the 3rd quarter results will be released. Then I'm expecting better than expected numbers (actually nobody is expecting anything, because there are no analysts covering the company) and the stock to open above $3.54, leaving an island on the chart, the "patience island".
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT was down a bit on Friday, closing the gap. But it stayed on the north side of the "patience island", that is, between $2.5 and $3. It would be nice if the stock were to stay within this range until we get the 3rd quarter results. Then I expect CIMT to gap up above $3.54 on good earnings news.
David, what was the reason of the 'instability' on CIMT's quarterly results in 2006, from $0,03 down to $0,00 , than going negative to -$0.04 to surprise everyone in the last Qtr with $0.07!
And how much do you think will the acquisition of Microsystems add to the EPS in the 3rd Qtr, around $0.01 or do you expect more/less...
Tia! :)
(http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/7440/cimthh0.jpg)
It looks like it's going to explode very soon 8)
Hey David, I luv your phrase "patience island" . Did you "coin" that one yourself?
I kind of think of it as, those that are patient know that their ship is coming to take them off the island. Kewl. 8)
QuoteDavid, what was the reason of the 'instability' on CIMT's quarterly results in 2006, from $0,03 down to $0,00 , than going negative to -$0.04 to surprise everyone in the last Qtr with $0.07!
Well, that can be explained mainly by two factors: an increase in R&D expenses to develop the CimatronE version 8.0 and the normal seasonality of the business.
QuoteAnd how much do you think will the acquisition of Microsystems add to the EPS in the 3rd Qtr, around $0.01 or do you expect more/less...
Good question Se7en :)
Let's see, from the Q2 conference call:
«- Microsystem had a net loss of ($170 K) in the first half of 2007, because the company made purchase orders for hardware products that weren't sold to its costumers in the first half due to product shortages. These products are being sold and delivered in Q3 2007 and CIMT's management expects Microsystems to be profitable in the full year 2007;»
I would expect about $170,000 in net income coming from Microsystem in Q3. Since CIMT owns 51% of this, it's just $86,700, which divided by 8 million shares gives us $0.01 EPS. Of course, it can be more, but I guess this is what we can reasonably expect.
Now note that there was revenue growth in Q2 when compared to Q1 in 2007, which didn't happen in 2006. I believe this is because Cimatron vs 8 penetrates new markets and will expand the company's revenue and bottom line. Moreover, R&D costs (which are about $1 M a quarter) will probably go down, because the biggest part of the development job seems to be behind us.
This is why I expect an improvement in Q3 2007 and $0.07 EPS for the quarter. In Q4, which is seasonally the strongest quarter, I'm expecting $0.10.
This should be enough to put CIMT trading in the $6 - $8 range between now and Q2 2008.
Quote from: Garoh on October 15, 2007, 07:34:15 PM
It looks like it's going to explode very soon 8)
Yes, but still in the $2.5 - $3 range. I don't think it will fly much without an earnings report or maybe an acquisition news, that would be super :)
Quote from: BigSully1 on October 15, 2007, 07:51:51 PM
Hey David, I luv your phrase "patience island" . Did you "coin" that one yourself?
I kind of think of it as, those that are patient know that their ship is coming to take them off the island. Kewl. 8)
He he, we, CIMT investors and residents of the "patience island" should really be rewarded ... if that happens, as I believe it will, it will be hard earned money :P
I hope that when the rescue comes it is an helicopter instead of a ship, so we can jump above the $3 - $3.54 ocean ;D
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
It's interesting how sometimes it happens that companies stay in the same revenue range for several years (as I've just seen in FSTR analysis - that company had basically the same revenue for more than 10 years - and then strong growth started) and then revenue starts growing for apparently no special reason.
CIMT's revenues have been between $20 M and $25 M for the past seven years, but it looks like that's about to change. CIMT's management seems committed to growth, and that's why they made the Microsystem acquisition and say they're studying more:
«Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "We believe that Cimatron is now well positioned to further increase its market share and accordingly its revenues in order to become a larger player in the industry. Following the exercise of the option to increase its holding in Microsystem to 51%, Cimatron continues to consider M&A opportunities, as part of its general growth strategy to further increase its offering and global presence."»
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
I looked for new information at CIMT's website (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/homepage.aspx?FolderID=5&lang=en), but there wasn't any. All we can do now is wait for the earnings release, which will probably be around November 15.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
CIMT is still waiting for the rescue helicopter that will take it out of the patience island, back to the Northern Hemisphere. It is scheduled to arrive in November 15, 2007.
In the meantime we'll get distracted with other stocks.
I'll continue holding CIMT.
It is easier to be patient when at least stocks don't go down. CIMT stayed the same on Friday, while the general market fell 2.6%, so, not bad.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Anybody knows why the float share is only 2.69M while the total outstanding share is 7.84M?
Quote from: hyhl on October 21, 2007, 10:57:11 AM
Anybody knows why the float share is only 2.69M while the total outstanding share is 7.84M?
Because the two core shareholders own 66% of the company.
CIMT remains within the $2.5 - $3 range, as expected. I'll patiently keep holding and waiting for the earnings news around November 15.
I think the weak dollar could really help CIMT's earnings, at this time last year 1€ was worth around 1.27$, today 1€ = 1,42$, that's around 12% more ...
So for example if they have the same earnings as last years QTR, they would still have (12%) more because of the weaker dollar(stronger Euro) since they publish results in $, right? ::)
27000 shares at $2.70 bid today ... 8)
Quote from: Se7en on October 25, 2007, 06:24:39 AM
I think the weak dollar could really help CIMT's earnings, at this time last year 1€ was worth around 1.27$, today 1€ = 1,42$, that's around 12% more ...
So for example if they have the same earnings as last years QTR, they would still have (12%) more because of the weaker dollar(stronger Euro) since they publish results in $, right? ::)
Right ;)
Quote from: Se7en on October 25, 2007, 09:42:29 AM
27000 shares at $2.70 bid today ... 8)
We'll see if they're there today too. Anyway, I don't expect CIMT to move much before the 3rd quarter earnings release, scheduled to happen before November 15.
I'll patiently continue holding CIMT.
CIMT might close the gap in the earnings release. ;)
QuoteCIMT might close the gap in the earnings release. ;)
Hi Terliso, nice to see you :)
I'm hoping for more but I agree with you, probably the news won't be strong enough for CIMT to open above $3.54 and never look back on its way North. It seems it is easier for the market to make huge gap downs than huge gap ups.
Anyway, if the stock trends higher over the long term and achieves something near my optimal selling price of $15.67 (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/fundamental.model.php?ticker=CIMT&portfolio=main), we'll be allright 8)
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
good morning!
we just had some press release about CIMT.
I like this part which I think its the most important part of it.
Quote"China represents a significant growth opportunity for Cimatron," said Danny Haran, CEO and President. "Holding our global conference here is another evidence to the strength of our commitment to this market."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071029/ukm021.html?.v=70 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071029/ukm021.html?.v=70)
The stock responded by hitting $3!! On a super-heavy volume (for CIMT) of 57000 shares! >:D
Earnings leak ...?! ;D
I'm glad this one's moving because i have seller's remorse for letting nvtl and swir go last week.
Quote from: Se7en on October 29, 2007, 11:08:12 AM
Earnings leak ...?! ;D
I guess today's advance has to do with the "China" word :) (thanks pinoleropuro)
• Cimatron Holds Global Annual Conference in China (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071029/ukm021.html?.v=70)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:39am)
Microcaps sometimes need this kind of impulse.
Quote from: soxguy on October 29, 2007, 11:25:16 AM
I'm glad this one's moving because i have seller's remorse for letting nvtl and swir go last week.
Yeah, me too, if I had been a bit more patient with NVTL and SWIR the Main would now be closer to a 40% gain for the year :-[
The following press release was CIMT's canoe to row out of the patience island:
• Cimatron Holds Global Annual Conference in China (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071029/ukm021.html?.v=70)
PR Newswire (Mon 6:39am)
Investors saw the word "China" and got encouraged by the CEO's comments:
«"China represents a significant growth opportunity for Cimatron," said Danny Haran, CEO and President. "Holding our global conference here is another evidence to the strength of our commitment to this market."»
... especially after checking that the company made $0.14 EPS over the last three quarters ($0.187 annualized), so at yesterday's close CIMT was trading at 14.3 times earnings, which is quite cheap for a software company promising strong growth in China.
CIMT is now in the "gap zone", which will only be closed at $3.54. The higher it goes before the earnings release the better, because if then there's a positive surprise it will jump from a higher level ... and if there's a disappointment, it is better to feel a profit shrinking than a growing loss.
I'll keep on holding CIMT for the long term.
Quote from: David Randolph on October 29, 2007, 04:22:18 PM
CIMT is now in the "gap zone", which will only be closed at $3.54. The higher it goes before the earnings release the better, because if then there's a positive surprise it will jump from a higher level ... and if there's a disappointment, it is better to feel a profit shrinking than a growing loss.
I started posting again today on the Yahoo Message Boards, and I see a few others here have been posting recently as well. It will help a bit to keep the troll under control till earnings release.
Chart looks really bullish now, "CIMTly Beautiful" lol. ;)
I must say, yuki had me going there a little bit when he was a member of the board. but I said to my self there is no way I am going to be paying a membership to the service David provides with such a proven record. I held on and although I was down all the way to 25% at one point I kept reading religiously and now David you have more than proven your self.
Muchisimas gracias David, now I'll be able to afford the diapers and formula for my new baby that should be here in another 6 to 8 weeks.
;D
now if PFSW does the same thing CIMT is doing I'll be really happy. ;) ;D
The daily chart of CIMT became bullish... he he ;)
Nice to see CIMT back in the green for the main portfolio today too.
CIMT could even fill the gap this week for all we know. The chart Terliso posted is the weekly chart, but the candle today is just the first day of this week. Also, I saw a trade go through at 3.11 on my Etrade screen right at end of the day today, not sure why it didnt register as the final trade, but it looked like buying was being sustained into the close.
Management is playing the China card again with today's press release, that is what got us to $4.73 the last time. But now it may be even stronger because Chinese stocks are on fire more than usual recently.
Mix all this with a good earnings report and we can really see some fireworks, and CIMTly beautiful fireworks at that! ;) >:D
from seeking alpha:
Cimatron Jumps 15% Off Strong Conference Call
posted on: October 31, 2007 | about stocks: CIMT
As we've said repeatedly, Israel has a stable of really interesting microcap/smallcap companies trading under most investors' radars. Cimatron (CIMT) is one of these plays that is worth a look.
Sporting a micro-cap of less than $25M, Cimatron provides investors with a profitable microcap with cash on the books, and which is poised to see some nice growth in the future. CIMT competes in the competitive CAD/CAM space for the tooling and manufacturing vertical. As much of manufacturing is pushed offshore, Cimatron continues to see nice growth from foreign markets — so much so, that it's purchase two tranches of its Italian distributor, Microsystem, with a call option to purchase the remaining shares.
Cimatron was up almost 15% on Monday (and over 125% on the year) off of the strength of its conference call, that was held in China.
I thought it'd be useful to highlight some points from the conference call that got the market so excited:
# Microsystem had $10.5M in revenue in 2006 and poised to continue to grow profitably. Looks like earnings will become accretive in Q32007.
# Launch of Cimatron 8.0 appears to be really interesting for the company, as it positions them in a new market, the die design market. The company expects organic growth from this new target market in the quarters ahead.
# In terms of geographical sales, CIMT sells 57% in Europe, 23% in the Asia Pacific, 12% in North America and 8% in the rest of the world.
# The company said that they are focused on increasing shareholder value. Look for some more M&A in the future.
chart:
Quote from: pinoleropuro on October 29, 2007, 09:56:40 PM
I must say, yuki had me going there a little bit when he was a member of the board. but I said to my self there is no way I am going to be paying a membership to the service David provides with such a proven record. I held on and although I was down all the way to 25% at one point I kept reading religiously and now David you have more than proven your self.
Muchisimas gracias David, now I'll be able to afford the diapers and formula for my new baby that should be here in another 6 to 8 weeks.
;D
now if PFSW does the same thing CIMT is doing I'll be really happy. ;) ;D
Congrats on your baby pinoleropuro :)
But don't be so fast in saying "you've proven yourself David", because CIMT still didn't report Q3 earnings and they can disappoint (even though I don't think they will). Moreover you shouldn't judge my work based on one or two stock recommendations, but on the overall portfolio performance. But thanks :)
QuoteManagement is playing the China card again with today's press release, that is what got us to $4.73 the last time. But now it may be even stronger because Chinese stocks are on fire more than usual recently.
Hi Tokyo, the problem is investors felt betrayed the last time, because even though the company's business in China is growing a lot, it is coming from a very small base, so it doesn't have much impact in the company's total revenues and profits.
I don't think the "China" word will be enough to take CIMT towards filling the gap at $3.54. Only strong Q3 numbers can do that, in my opinion. And I'm expecting that ... Q3 EPS of $0.07.
QuoteCimatron was up almost 15% on Monday (and over 125% on the year) off of the strength of its conference call, that was held in China.
I thought it'd be useful to highlight some points from the conference call that got the market so excited:
# Microsystem had $10.5M in revenue in 2006 and poised to continue to grow profitably. Looks like earnings will become accretive in Q32007.
# Launch of Cimatron 8.0 appears to be really interesting for the company, as it positions them in a new market, the die design market. The company expects organic growth from this new target market in the quarters ahead.
# In terms of geographical sales, CIMT sells 57% in Europe, 23% in the Asia Pacific, 12% in North America and 8% in the rest of the world.
# The company said that they are focused on increasing shareholder value. Look for some more M&A in the future.
I think this is erroneous information La-onda, these highlights are from the 2nd quarter earnings conference call, there isn't any webcast or replay of the conference in China available to the public. Please confirm this if you can. Thanks :)
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT is one of the very few companies which never diluted shareholder's value. The share count stands at 8 million since the company's IPO back in March 1996 (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann).
And there will be growth, eventually.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
someone posted a link to Yukii's portfolio at the yahoo boards. it shows that yukii picked CIMT on July 4th at 1.95 share and he is up 38.46% from that price. if that is the case I don't get why yukii keeps bashing it on the yahoo board or is it yukii the basher?
hmm.
oh well here is the link.
http://www.stockpickr.com/port/Ultimate-Stock-Portfolio/ (http://www.stockpickr.com/port/Ultimate-Stock-Portfolio/)
Quote from: pinoleropuro on November 04, 2007, 01:17:51 AM
someone posted a link to Yukii's portfolio at the yahoo boards. it shows that yukii picked CIMT on July 4th at 1.95 share and he is up 38.46% from that price. if that is the case I don't get why yukii keeps bashing it on the yahoo board or is it yukii the basher?
hmm.
oh well here is the link.
http://www.stockpickr.com/port/Ultimate-Stock-Portfolio/ (http://www.stockpickr.com/port/Ultimate-Stock-Portfolio/)
Perhaps yukiii is the basher, that would explain a lot :)
CIMT is below where it was when the "China conference" news hit the wires, and this is a natural behavior, investors won't buy CIMT in a sustainable basis just because of "China", they want to see real revenue growth and nice EPS before jumping into this micro cap.
And that's what they'll get when the company reports 3rd quarter earnings, in my opinion.
We never left the "patience island", I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT remains in the patience island, but we need to always keep in mind that this is a microscopic cap company, just $21 M. It isn't difficult for it to double in one single day if the right news hits the wires.
In Q3 2007 I'm expecting 7 cents EPS and 10 cents in Q4. With this type of earnings news CIMT will surely trade north of $6.
Even if we don't get these results right now I believe CIMT is to be held for the long term, because it is a profitable software company which never diluted shareholders' value and management is committed to growth. The company also has a strong balance sheet (considering its size).
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
Well, its not that price doubling kind of news you were talking about, but coincidentally some news did just hit the wires. Looks like CIMT management is in PR mode a bit before earnings release, thats nice to see.
----------------------
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071106/uktu017.html?.v=91
----------------------
Cimatron Brings Mold Making Solutions that Enable Faster Delivery to the Euromold Show Floor
Tuesday November 6, 3:20 am ET
Integrated CAD/CAM Solutions are Proven to Shorten Delivery Times
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, November 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Visitors to the upcoming Euromold trade fair will be able to see Cimatron's (NASDAQ: CIMT - News) suite of integrated CAD/CAM solutions that are proven to help mold makers deliver higher quality tools at lower costs and shorter cycle times.
ADVERTISEMENT
Cimatron's CAD/CAM solutions address the entire mold making process-from quoting to design, engineering changes, NC and EDM programming. A recent independent study by the Aberdeen Group confirms that Cimatron customers are able to provide significantly faster delivery times than those offered by the rest of the industry. "Cimatron continues to focus on the requirements of tool makers and manufacturers," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's CEO and President. "Our biggest reward is seeing our customers perform at the top of their industry."
Mold makers around the world have been quick to realize the benefits of using Cimatron's integrated solutions: "We can now construct the mold and complete the mold assembly 30% faster than before," said a senior mold designer at Junker & Halverscheid (Germany). "Cimatron speaks the language of mold builders," added Rudiger Gossling, in charge of mold engineering at Junker & Halverscheid.
"We are excited for the opportunity to meet the industry's forward-thinkers at the Euromold event," said Dirk Dombert, General Manager of Cimatron GmbH. "With growing pressures to step-up product quality and shorten delivery times, mold makers need solutions that have the functionality to meet their specific needs."
Designed to address the unique challenges faced by the industry today, Cimatron's CAD/CAM solutions provide mold makers with:
- An integrated solution that addresses the entire mold making process-from quoting to design, applying engineering changes, NC and EDM programming.
- A dedicated mold design solution that enables the entire design work to be completed in a single environment.
- A flexible hybrid environment that allows design in both 2D and 3D, using surface or solid operations to best match the needs of each task at hand.
- The ideal mix of automation and user control-saving time with high level of automation while empowering the experienced user to be in command of the process.
- A complete range of NC technologies to get any job done-from simple 2.5-axis milling and drilling to complex 5-axis machining and micro milling.
Visit Cimatron at Euromold, December 5-8, 2007
Hall 6, Stand C85
For more information about Euromold, visit http://www.euromold.com.
About Cimatron
With more than 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles, enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would," "will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
For More Information Contact:
Idit Pass Lagziel
Marketing Manager
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-5312098
Email:
[email protected] Ilan Erez
Chief Financial Officer
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-531-2121
Email:
[email protected] Yael Nevat
Commitment-IR.com
Phone: +972-3-611-4466
+972-50-762-6215
Email:
[email protected]
QuoteWell, its not that price doubling kind of news you were talking about, but coincidentally some news did just hit the wires. Looks like CIMT management is in PR mode a bit before earnings release, thats nice to see.
Yep Tokyopua, thanks for posting the press release.
As you expected, it had no impact in the share price, just 500 shares changing hands yesterday.
But there are a few positive indications:
«A recent independent study by the Aberdeen Group confirms that Cimatron customers are able to provide significantly faster delivery times than those offered by the rest of the industry. "Cimatron continues to focus on the requirements of tool makers and manufacturers," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's CEO and President. "Our biggest reward is seeing our customers perform at the top of their industry."»
If indeed Cimatron is the best in its industry, it will surely grow over the long term. And the CAD/CAM software industry is a multi-billion dollar industry (I don't know how many billions, but a couple of months ago we've seen that case of a $3 B plus company in this sector being acquired by a private equity group).
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Next Wednesday we'll know the 3rd quarter results and the Microsystem's impact on revenue and EPS, which I expect to be positive.
Nothing else to do now but keep waiting for the numbers and hold the stock.
Nice 15.5% run up on Friday, but we know we'll need strong 3rd quarter earnings for CIMT to move sharply higher and more importantly, sustain that higher level. I believe that if we get the $0.07 EPS I'm expecting investors will push CIMT above $5 and hold it there, because the 4th quarter will be even better than the 3rd.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
QuoteNice 15.5% run up on Friday, but we know we'll need strong 3rd quarter earnings for CIMT to move sharply higher and more importantly, sustain that higher level.
Indeed, no earnings, no sustainability, CIMT was down 11.8% yesterday. Results will be released tomorrow after the close and of course I'll hold through them.
Anyway, it is possible that even with very good news CIMT doesn't go up as much as it should, because the general market mood is bearish (the mood, not the long term trend). When I see SILC, for example, trading at 12 times earnings ... but I expect optimism to flourish over the next few months.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Woohoo! 8)
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues and Improved Profits in the Third Quarter of 2007
Wednesday November 14, 4:00 pm ET
Higher Revenues and Profits are Attributed Both to Organic Growth and to the Microsystem Acquisition
$0.06 EPS in Q3 2007, $0.12 EPS in Q1-Q3 2007
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, November 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the tool making and manufacturing industries, today announced record revenues and an increase in profits for the third quarter of 2007.
ADVERTISEMENT
click here
Both increased revenues and profit are attributed to organic growth, as well as to the acquisition of a majority stake in Microsystem. This is the first quarter in which Microsystem's results are consolidated into Cimatron's financial statements.
Most of the organic revenue growth came from new software license sales. However, growth was also registered in maintenance and service revenues.
Financial Highlights:
Revenues for the third quarter of 2007 increased by 58% to $7.9 million compared to $5.0 million in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, revenue increased by 22% to $18.8 million compared to $15.4 million in the same period in 2006.
Gross profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $6.38 million, as compared to $4.18 million in the same period in 2006, a 53% increase. Gross margin in the third quarter was 81% of revenues, compared to 83% of revenues in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, gross profit increased 22% to $15.55 million compared to $12.73 million in the first nine months of 2006. Gross margin for the nine months ended on September 30th, 2007 was 83% of revenues as compared to 82% of revenues in the same period of 2006. As expected, the consolidation of Microsystem resulted in a slight decrease to Cimatron's gross margin, due to Microsystem's third-party hardware sales.
Operating profit in the third quarter of 2007 was $450 thousand, compared to an operating loss of $(403) thousand in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, operating profit increased to $845 thousand, compared to an operating loss of $(317) thousand in the first nine months of 2006.
Net profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $486 thousand, or $0.06 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(281) thousand, or $(0.04) per diluted share in the same quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, net profit increased to $958 thousand, or $0.12 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(43) thousand, or $(0.01) per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2006.
"We are very pleased with our continued revenue and profit growth, marked by significant growth in software license sales," said Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron. "The figures for the third quarter reflect the continuous positive acceptance of our latest version of Cimatron E, as well as the contribution of Microsystem's results to both the top and bottom lines."
"The global execution of our business strategy and the successful acquisition of a majority stake in Microsystem have resulted in strong third quarter financial results," said Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron. We are pleased to see improvement in all important parameters, even before consolidating Microsystem's results. As previously disclosed, Cimatron will continue to consider M&A opportunities, as part of its strategy to further increase its product offering and global presence," Mr. Ben-Shaoul concluded.
Cimatron has previously disclosed that following the exercise of its option to increase its holdings in MicroSystem to 51% in July 2007, it will fully consolidate the results of Microsystem, subject to the exclusion of a 49% minority interest. However, upon further review, the Company has decided to consolidate 100% of Microsystems' results as of the third quarter of 2007, with no exclusion of minority interest, due to the 49% minority shares in Microsystem having become subject to a put and call option in favor of Microsystems shareholders and Cimatron, respectively, upon the acquisition of 51% of Microsystems. To reflect the foregoing, in Q3 2007 Cimatron booked in its balance sheet an additional investment of $1.25M and a liability to pay to the remaining Microsystem shareholders the same amount which they are expected to receive in July 2008, as per the call/put options.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/ukw103.html?.v=1 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/ukw103.html?.v=1)
Here we go , david you'er needed a soon as possible :)
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues and Improved Profits in the Third Quarter of 2007
Nov 14, 2007 16:00:00 (ET)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, November 14, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cimatron Limited (CIMT, Trade ), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the tool making and manufacturing industries, today announced record revenues and an increase in profits for the third quarter of 2007.
Both increased revenues and profit are attributed to organic growth, as well as to the acquisition of a majority stake in Microsystem. This is the first quarter in which Microsystem's results are consolidated into Cimatron's financial statements.
Most of the organic revenue growth came from new software license sales. However, growth was also registered in maintenance and service revenues.
Financial Highlights:
Revenues for the third quarter of 2007 increased by 58% to $7.9 million compared to $5.0 million in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, revenue increased by 22% to $18.8 million compared to $15.4 million in the same period in 2006.
Gross profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $6.38 million, as compared to $4.18 million in the same period in 2006, a 53% increase. Gross margin in the third quarter was 81% of revenues, compared to 83% of revenues in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, gross profit increased 22% to $15.55 million compared to $12.73 million in the first nine months of 2006. Gross margin for the nine months ended on September 30th, 2007 was 83% of revenues as compared to 82% of revenues in the same period of 2006. As expected, the consolidation of Microsystem resulted in a slight decrease to Cimatron's gross margin, due to Microsystem's third-party hardware sales.
Operating profit in the third quarter of 2007 was $450 thousand, compared to an operating loss of $(403) thousand in the third quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, operating profit increased to $845 thousand, compared to an operating loss of $(317) thousand in the first nine months of 2006.
Net profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $486 thousand, or $0.06 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(281) thousand, or $(0.04) per diluted share in the same quarter of 2006. In the first nine months of 2007, net profit increased to $958 thousand, or $0.12 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $(43) thousand, or $(0.01) per diluted share, in the first nine months of 2006.
"We are very pleased with our continued revenue and profit growth, marked by significant growth in software license sales," said Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron. "The figures for the third quarter reflect the continuous positive acceptance of our latest version of Cimatron E, as well as the contribution of Microsystem's results to both the top and bottom lines."
"The global execution of our business strategy and the successful acquisition of a majority stake in Microsystem have resulted in strong third quarter financial results," said Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron. We are pleased to see improvement in all important parameters, even before consolidating Microsystem's results. As previously disclosed, Cimatron will continue to consider M&A opportunities, as part of its strategy to further increase its product offering and global presence," Mr. Ben-Shaoul concluded.
Cimatron has previously disclosed that following the exercise of its option to increase its holdings in MicroSystem to 51% in July 2007, it will fully consolidate the results of Microsystem, subject to the exclusion of a 49% minority interest. However, upon further review, the Company has decided to consolidate 100% of Microsystems' results as of the third quarter of 2007, with no exclusion of minority interest, due to the 49% minority shares in Microsystem having become subject to a put and call option in favor of Microsystems shareholders and Cimatron, respectively, upon the acquisition of 51% of Microsystems. To reflect the foregoing, in Q3 2007 Cimatron booked in its balance sheet an additional investment of $1.25M and a liability to pay to the remaining Microsystem shareholders the same amount which they are expected to receive in July 2008, as per the call/put options.
Conference Call Information:
Cimatron's management will host a conference call with the investment community to discuss and review the results, on November 15th, 2007:
The conference call will start at 9:00 EST (16:00 Israel time)
To listen to the conference call, please dial:
From the US: +1-888-407-2553
From Israel: 03-9180688
International: +972-3-9180688
For those unable to listen to the live call, a replay of the call will be available from the day after the call under the investor relations section of Cimatron's website, at: http://www.cimatron.com
About Cimatron
With more than 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles, enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com .
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would," "will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
CIMATRON LIMITED
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF
INCOME
(US Dollars in thousands, except for per share data)
Three months Nine months
ended ended
September September
30, 30,
2007 2006 2007 2006
Total revenue 7,915 5,014 18,759 15,432
Total cost of revenue 1,533 835 3,210 2,706
Gross profit 6,382 4,179 15,549 12,726
Research and development 1,037 1,150 3,144 3,333
expenses, net
Selling, general and 4,895 3,432 11,560 9,710
administrative expenses
Operating income 450 (403) 845 (317)
Net income $ 486 $ (281) $ 958 $ (43)
Net income per share - $ 0.06 $ (0.04) $ 0.12 $ (0.01)
basic and diluated
Weighted average number of
shares outstanding
Basic EPS (in thousands) 7,902 7,835 7,860 7,835
Diluted EPS (in 7,919 7,835 7,900 7,835
thousands)
CIMATRON LIMITED
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(US Dollars in thousands)
September December
30, 31,
2007 2006
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS:
Total cash, cash equivalents and short-terms $ 8,884 $ 5,597
investments
Other current assets 8,077 5,828
Total current assets 16,961 11,425
Deposits with insurance companies and 2,794 2,653
severance pay fund
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS:
Marketable investments 1,112 1,287
Investments in affiliated companies - 748
Total long-term investments 1,112 2,035
Net property and equipment 1,397 1,010
Total other assets 4,195 784
Total assets $ 26,459 $ 17,907
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS'
EQUITY
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Total current liabilities $ 11,754 $ 6,083
LONG-TERM LIABILITIES:
Accrued severance pay 3,956 3,003
Long-term loan 444 -
Total long-term liabilities 4,400 3,003
Minority interest 31 (24)
Total shareholders' equity 10,274 8,845
Total liabilities and shareholders' $ 26,459 $ 17,907
equity
Bid 3.15 ASK 3.17 The markets likes.
QuoteHere we go , david you'er needed a soon as possible :)
• Cimatron Reports Record Revenues and Improved Profits in the Third Quarter of 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/ukw103.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Wed 4:00pm)
Solid results from CIMT. I was hopping for 7 cents EPS but 6 cents is also pretty good ... even more so because the 3rd quarter is seasonally weak. I still have to listen to the conference call, but everything seems on track for CIMT achieving the super $0.10 EPS in Q4, which in my opinion should mean at least $6 a share (I'm being conservative on the multiple here).
If CIMT were to trade at the Technical & Software industry average earnings multiple of 35 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT), it should trade at $0.06*4 quarters = $0.24*35 = $8.4, given today's quarterly results, but it seems micro caps have been out of favor lately ... but I say that at least an earnings multiple of 15 is warranted, and that means $3.60 on close tomorrow.
I'll write some more comments tomorrow before the open, got my kids screaming here ;D
David Thanks for the useful quick information :)
Nice, I couldnt resist getting on YMB and taunting the basher boy, pretty childish of me, I admit, BUT REAALLY DAMN FUN LOL!!!!!
I checked it out. ;D
great job Tokyo.
just wondering about the low volume and hoping this thing takes off tomorrow and closes at least above the "patience Island". That will definately strenghthen the earnings report's effect on the stock price. I think that if it doesn't than we are probably going back to the island until the possibly the next quarter reports. that is if institution don't buy it before then.
I truly want to get off and stay off the island before the year is over, in fact before December and on higher volume too.
I guess we shall see.
Results were announced after the market close, volume AH was more than during the day and in March - April CIMT ran to the 4.70's on much weaker earnings ...
The conference call replay still isn't available at Cimatron's website.
3rd quarter results are very encouraging, marking the 4th straight quarter of profitability for CIMT:
• Cimatron Reports Record Revenues and Improved Profits in the Third Quarter of 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/ukw103.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Wed 4:00pm)
Considering the CEO's comments in the press release ...
«"We are very pleased with our continued revenue and profit growth, marked by significant growth in software license sales," said Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron.»
... and the positive effect of seasonality in the 4th quarter, I'm absolutely convinced that the company will earn $0.10 EPS in Q4.
I'm very optimistic for CIMT over the long term, because of the leverage I see in the business model:
«Gross profit for the third quarter of 2007 was $6.38 million, as compared to $4.18 million in the same period in 2006, a 53% increase. Gross margin in the third quarter was 81% of revenues, compared to 83% of revenues in the third quarter of 2006.»
As it happens with most software companies, CIMT has a very fat gross margin, of 81% in Q3 2007. However, net profit margin for this quarter was just 6.14%. This is due to the relatively high R&D and SG&A costs. However, when sales rise, these costs don't rise in the same proportion, therefore increasing net profit margin. This is called "leverage".
If indeed it is true that there's strong demand for the company's products (I'm a believer), we'll have strong revenue growth going forward and that will mean net profit margin expansion.
With $7.9 M in revenue CIMT makes $0.06 EPS. But with, say, $15 M, my dear, it will make, according to my calculations (considering R&D and SG&A costs will rise 20% and 20% tax rate), $0.49 EPS.
It's pretty incredible, if revenue doubles EPS is multiplied by 8 times. Perhaps it wouldn't be this way, maybe costs would rise more than 20%, but you see what I mean about leverage.
One thing you can be confident, CIMT didn't dilute shareholder's value in 11 years since its IPO and with core shareholders owning 2/3 of the company, there won't be any dilution going forward either. Acquisitions are made with available cash.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Hmmm, not quite the big pop we were all expecting ???
yeah, we may have to wait until the 4Q results to get the result we were looking for unless CIMT puts out some press realeases that bring it to the forefront. It's got the fundies which thanks to David we all know it. That is why I am holding with strong hands. I am just glad I bought more when it went down to $2/share.
big volume is what I am looking forward to now.
Quote from: tokyopua on November 16, 2007, 04:08:57 AM
Hmmm, not quite the big pop we were all expecting ???
True. I guess this happened because the market isn't receptive to micro cap stocks now. With most stocks deeply in the red yesterday (especially small caps), investors didn't feel like pushing a micro cap way up, regardless of the fundamental change. But the fundamental improvement is there, it wasn't lost.
I've listened to the conference call and I felt like Cimatron's management is very smart and will know how to build sustainable long term shareholder value. I felt like they didn't need to play any tricks to prop up the share price, because the fundamental improvement is strong enough to do it on its own.
When asked about China, the CEO gave an answer that I enjoyed:
«We had strong growth in China, but China still represents a small part of our business, less than 10%. We don't want to play the China card too often».
This tells me they've learned that just mentioning the "China" word doesn't add any sustainable value to the company.
And this leads me to the substantive part, the current financial trends and outlook.
Management said, and that is confirmed by the following historical information, that Q3 is the weakest quarter of the year from a seasonal standpoint:
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=41920;image)
Note that this is the average revenue for all quarters going back to 2000. The 3rd quarter is the weakest because of European Summer vacations 8) (CIMT's revenues in this latest quarter came 71% from Europe). So, CIMT achieved these awesome results on its weakest quarter of the year. I'm fully convinced that in the seasonally stronger 4th quarter we'll see $9 M plus in revenue and $0.10 EPS, so everything is on track with my initial forecasts.
Another issue on the conference call which was quite pleasing was that the revenue and EPS growth didn't came mainly from the Microsystem's consolidation, the CEO said "CIMT organic" (it means CIMT without Microsystems consolidation) sold 32% more value in software licenses, because of the version 8.0 new features in die design and 5-axis production. He said the new version is being very well accepted in the marketplace.
License software accounts for 39% of the company's revenue, maintenance accounts for 42% and hardware sales account for 7% (this is from Microsystems). I didn't catch where the remaining 12% come from. Of course, the more licenses sold, the more maintenance revenue thereafter.
Longer term, if this type of revenue growth continues as I believe it will, net profit margin will start to expand in a meaningful way. It was just 6.14% in Q3, but I can see it expanding to 20-25% two years from now (I have 15% in my valuation model).
As for the market reaction, patience is the word. I've been reading Peter Lynch's marvelous stock market book, "One Up on Wall Street", and when referring to time frame he says his investments in stocks are from 3 to 15 years.
So far CIMT is the longest investment I've ever made, and I own it for just nine months. I plan to own it for at least three years.
CIMT was the only stock of the Main Portfolio closing in positive territory yesterday :-[
There was a press release out:
• Cimatron and DMG Host a Seminar on Micro Milling (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071119/ukm048.html?.v=11)
PR Newswire (Mon 9:05am)
Someone at the conference call asked "what are you doing in micro-milling?" or something like that, hence this press release, I think.
We've already seen the 4th quarter is the strongest from a seasonal standpoint and CIMT's leveraged business model, which can make CIMT not just a 5 bagger, but a 10 bagger (after all, it just needs to be a $200 M market cap to be a 10 bagger). But it's going to take a loooottttt of patience my friends.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Any News ?! ::)
Quote from: Garoh on November 26, 2007, 02:15:32 PM
Any News ?! ::)
Hi Garoh, no, no news out for CIMT, the stock just continues to be stuck inside the $2.5 - $3 range.
Just out of curiosity, Cimatron will hold its annual shareholders meeting on Christmas day:
« You are cordially invited to attend the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of Cimatron Ltd. (the "Company") to be held at 10:00 A.M. (Israel time), on
December 25, 2007, at the Company's offices at 11 Gush Etzion Street, Givat Shmuel, Israel»
I guess this is because Jews don't celebrate Christmas or not on the same date we do, but I'm totally ignorant on religious matters.
Fundamentally, on any "normal" market, CIMT would be much higher than what it is now ... fortunately over the long term value always comes up. I expect $0.10 EPS in Q4 2007, bringing the full year 2007 EPS number to $0.22, up from $0.07 in 2006.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
hi! David
I lieve in israel and i can participate in the meeting if anyone have ideas please be my guest
Quote from: David Randolph on November 27, 2007, 07:02:16 AM
Quote from: Garoh on November 26, 2007, 02:15:32 PM
Any News ?! ::)
Hi Garoh, no, no news out for CIMT, the stock just continues to be stuck inside the $2.5 - $3 range.
Just out of curiosity, Cimatron will hold its annual shareholders meeting on Christmas day:
« You are cordially invited to attend the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of Cimatron Ltd. (the "Company") to be held at 10:00 A.M. (Israel time), on December 25, 2007, at the Company's offices at 11 Gush Etzion Street, Givat Shmuel, Israel»
I guess this is because Jews don't celebrate Christmas or not on the same date we do, but I'm totally ignorant on religious matters.
Fundamentally, on any "normal" market, CIMT would be much higher than what it is now ... fortunately over the long term value always comes up. I expect $0.10 EPS in Q4 2007, bringing the full year 2007 EPS number to $0.22, up from $0.07 in 2006.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Hi david thanks for the reply ..
I'm expecting a good jump for this stock , we just need the market to calm down ..
We'er moving in a channel moving very slowly up , I'm just waiting for the good news to come up ..
Quote from: eyalgo on November 27, 2007, 08:42:17 AM
hi! David
I lieve in israel and i can participate in the meeting if anyone have ideas please be my guest
Thanks for this help eyalgo, but considering the purposes of the meeting ...
(http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=42137;image)
... I guess it would be a waste of your time (especially on Christmas day, ok, I need to investigate this - What do Jews do on Christmas? (http://www.jewfaq.org/xmas.htm) - let's move on, forget this issue) and expenses on the trip.
But thanks :)
QuoteI'm expecting a good jump for this stock , we just need the market to calm down ..
We'er moving in a channel moving very slowly up , I'm just waiting for the good news to come up ..
Yep, the market needs to calm down and hopefully it will respond accordingly to the $0.10 EPS I'm expecting for the 4th quarter.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT's patience island is getting really long here, especially considering all the positive developments over the last couple of quarters, but I remain confident this story will have an happy ending.
CIMT is a software company. Companies in the Technical & System Software industry trade at an average P/E of 35, yet CIMT's P/E is just 11, if we extrapolate the 3rd quarter results into the future (CIMT earned $0.06 per share in Q3 2007, which, as we've seen, is the weakest quarter of the year from a seasonal standpoint).
The company has a strong balance sheet and it will probably grow through sensible acquisitions, like it did with Microsystem.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Time to move up, price just above the 200MA now ... ::)
Quote from: Se7en on December 04, 2007, 08:15:09 AM
Time to move up, price just above the 200MA now ... ::)
Also touched the medium term ascending trendline on my chart. Still managed to close above the $2.5 support level. Fundamentally it is outrageously cheap. I'll continue to be patient with it because I see the leverage in its business model: if revenue keeps growing as I think it will net profit margin will expand a lot, maybe from the current 6.2% to 20%-25%, since it is a software company.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
QuoteAlso touched the medium term ascending trendline on my chart. Still managed to close above the $2.5 support level.
It bounced from support but volume remains low.
«Gross margin in the third quarter was 81% of revenues»
With gross margin of 81% it isn't all that hard to expand net profit margin to the 20-25% level. CIMT just needs some more revenue growth. I think it will happen.
For the 4th quarter, which is the seasonally strongest, I expect CIMT to earn 10 cents per share, and with this type of results I believe the stock will reach at least $6.
David, this is shown on CIMT's chart (stockcharts), is this correct?
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/8297/cimtzj6.png)
Quote from: Se7en on December 06, 2007, 09:57:22 AM
David, this is shown on CIMT's chart (stockcharts), is this correct?
(http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/8297/cimtzj6.png)
Hi se7en, no, that's not correct. Over the past four quarters CIMT earned $0.2 per share, so the trailing P/E is $2.75/$0.2 = 13.75.
In the prior 12 month period CIMT lost ($0.23) per share, so the $0.20 positive EPS is a big improvement. I expect CIMT's profitability to keep growing over the long term and of course the stock price to rise accordingly.
CIMT is extremely attractive at this point. I'll keep holding the stock for the long term.
CIMT continues to be asleep, which isn't all that bad considering the general market and other stocks within the Main Portfolio. Investors aren't focusing on small caps, much less so on micro caps like CIMT which is just a $21 M market cap company.
But, because investors' focus keeps changing, I'll tend to ignore these issues and be more concerned with the company's intrinsic and unique fundamentals.
CIMT is a software company which turned profitable four quarters ago. It is trading at about 13 times trailing EPS. Management never diluted shareholders value, not even while the company was facing losses, so I don't expect any dilution in the future. Two core shareholders own 2/3 of CIMT. This management is committed to growth, either through organic expansion or acquisitions.
Like it happens with any software company, I expect CIMT to have fat profit margins in the near future, much higher than the current 6%, because, as sales grow costs won't grow in the same proportion, since CIMT is selling a product which was already developed and each new copy costs less than $1 to make.
The 4th quarter is seasonally the strongest and I expect $0.10 EPS for this quarter. If this expectation materializes I would expect CIMT to trade at least at $5.
Plenty of reasons to keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Nice 5.7% gain on good volume of 28,000 shares (volume needs to be seen in a relative way). Technically the stock will remain bullish for as long as it closes above the ascending trendline (blue on the chart below).
Fundamentally, CIMT earned 12 cents per share so far in 2007 and I expect 10 cents per share more in Q4, because of Microsystem's contribution and also because the 4th quarter is seasonally the strongest for CIMT (the company earned 7 cents per share in Q4 2006). So I see $0.22 EPS when 2007 finally closes.
This tells me CIMT is trading at 12.7 times earnings, while the Technical & System Software industry average valuation is 34.8 times earnings. If CIMT were to trade at its industry average valuation it would then be a $7.66 stock.
But, as I repeatedly wrote on this thread, the two factors that make me feel very confident about CIMT is that the company never diluted shareholders value (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/statemnt.aspx?Symbol=cimt&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann) (also insiders own 2/3 of the company) and since it is a software company, net profit margin can jump to something like 20-25% if there's strong revenue growth.
I've held CIMT for more than nine months now and it has been a long wait, but I remain confident that this stock will earn me a way above average return on my investment. I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT Q3 Transcript, just FYI:
cheers
O.
Quote from: la-onda on December 26, 2007, 03:01:37 AM
CIMT Q3 Transcript, just FYI:
cheers
O.
Thanks for this la-onda :)
Management was exceptionally confident in this conference call. They even said they don't want to use the "China card" too often, because the country still represents a small part of the company's global operations (less than 10% of total revenue, whereas Europe accounts for 71%).
CIMT is a good example of what the "patience" word may mean when considering a micro-cap. Anyway, the stock has been showing relative strength, since it was up 28.3% in the 4th quarter, while the Russel 2000 Index was down 4.8%. So it wasn't all that difficult to keep on holding CIMT.
I expect to see $0.10 EPS when the company reports the 4th quarter results, probably in mid February. Then CIMT must finally move up and it may even gap up above $3.54, leaving an island pattern on the chart, and never look back.
This is my current expectation for CIMT and I'll continue holding it for the long term.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080102/ukw002.html?.v=3 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080102/ukw002.html?.v=3)
Gibbs Merges Into Cimatron
Wednesday January 2, 5:00 am ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, and MOORPARK, California, January 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Following the Merger:
- Cimatron will strengthen its position as a leading international CAD/CAM Software Company with a broader product range and stronger global presence
- Combined company's annual revenues are expected to exceed $40M, moving Cimatron well into the top 10 CAM software vendors
Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the tool making and manufacturing industries, and Gibbs System, Inc., also known as Gibbs & Associates, developer of GibbsCAM®, software for programming CNC machine tools, are pleased to announce the execution of a definitive agreement under which Gibbs will be merged with and into a newly established US subsidiary of Cimatron.
Bringing together the CimatronE integrated CAD/CAM suite for toolmaking and GibbsCAM leading CAD/CAM solution for production will allow the merged company to offer a powerful product portfolio for the entire manufacturing industry.
The combined product offering will strengthen Cimatron's market position, with the ability to deliver best-of-class products targeting all segments of the CAM market, from Mold and Die Making, through 2.5 axes and 5 axes production, to Mill-turn and Multi-Tasking Machining.
Moreover, the combined distribution networks of Cimatron and Gibbs complement each other and provide excellent coverage of all target markets worldwide, including a strong presence in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. It is expected that synergies could be quickly realized by selling the combined product portfolio through the merged distribution channels.
Gibbs System's estimated non-GAAP revenues in 2007 were approximately $12M and estimated non-GAAP pre-tax profit was above 10% of revenues.
In consideration for the transaction, Cimatron will pay to Mr. William F. Gibbs, founder, Chairman and CEO of Gibbs System, and its sole shareholder, a cash consideration of $5 million, as well as 1,500,000 newly issued ordinary shares of Cimatron. Cimatron's outstanding share capital after the closing will be comprised of approximately 9,400,000 ordinary shares. The transaction is anticipated to be consummated within several days and is subject to customary approvals and closing conditions.
Following the closing, Mr. Gibbs will continue to manage the GibbsCAM product-line business as President and CEO of the new subsidiary, and will join the Cimatron senior management team. In addition, Mr. Gibbs will be nominated to serve as Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron.
Commenting on today's announcement, Danny Haran, President and CEO of Cimatron said: "we are excited about the merger and the potential synergy. Being able to offer a complete range of high-end products for the entire manufacturing industry will bring great value to our customers. We believe that the reinforced Cimatron will enjoy economies of scale, which would translate the high quality engineering, financial efficiency and stronger competitive position into revenue and profit growth."
Bill Gibbs, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Gibbs System said: "we are happy to be part of this merger, putting together two well-known names in the CAD/CAM industry. The merger opens exciting opportunities of selling GibbsCAM through the Cimatron distribution network in key industrial markets. I personally am excited to join the Cimatron management team and to participate in exploiting the future merger benefits to their full extent."
Commenting on today's announcement, Mr. Rimon Ben Shaoul, Chairman of Cimatron added: "As we have declared in the past, Cimatron is actively looking to create more shareholder value through mergers and acquisitions. Gibbs and Associates is the perfect match for Cimatron, with clear product synergy and complementary distribution network. We believe that the merged company will become a stronger force in our highly competitive market." concluded Mr. Ben Shaoul.
Collins Stewart acted as advisor to Cimatron on the transaction.
About Gibbs and GibbsCAM
For over 20 years, Gibbs System, Inc., more frequently known as Gibbs & Associates, has been a leader in providing cutting-edge CAD/CAM technology, while maintaining its signature ease-of-use and productivity increasing qualities. "Powerfully Simple. Simply Powerful." is the guiding philosophy at Gibbs. Gibbs believes in empowering the NC programmer, machinist, and manufacturing engineer, not eliminating them. Gibbs' goal is to introduce manufacturers to new technologies and new ways of working that makes their machining easier and their businesses more profitable. To achieve this goal, Gibbs creates tools that are naturally intuitive, graphically interactive, extremely visual, associative, and just plain enjoyable to use. Gibbs provides a total quality solution with the service and support successful customers require.
GibbsCAM is either offered or endorsed by a number of leading worldwide CNC controller and machine tool manufacturers. Gibbs provide solutions to Fortune 500 companies such as Boeing, Ford, General Dynamics, General Motors, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon and now reaches global markets. Gibbs & Associates distributes its products worldwide through a network of international Resellers.
For more information about Gibbs & Associates and its CAM software packages, please visit: http://www.GibbsCAM.com.
Thanks for bringing us this news release Se7en :)
• Gibbs Merges Into Cimatron (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080102/ukw002.html?.v=3)
PR Newswire (Wed 5:00am)
They're calling it a merger, but in fact this is CIMT acquiring Gibbs.
This tells me two things:
1) CIMT's management is aggressively pursuing the creation of shareholders value, just like they said they would;
2) CIMT has a strong balance sheet, since it is paying $5 M in cash for this acquisition.
But, there will also be 1.5 million new shares issued (which is a first), which at Monday's close represents a value of $4.215 M. So the total acquisition price is $9.215 M, which looks attractive for a company with the following metrics:
«Gibbs System's estimated non-GAAP revenues in 2007 were approximately $12M and estimated non-GAAP pre-tax profit was above 10% of revenues.»
I believe this news will bring some attention to CIMT and the fact that it is trading at just 12.7 times earnings, while the Technical & System Software industry trades at 34 times earnings.
The stock should pop on this news, even though the press release lacks some important financial details.
Longer term, CIMT's management is committed to grow shareholders value and my expectation is that they will succeed.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT has had its last two good press releases happen at really bad times of the market, or I think it would be broken out of this range already to above $3.20. Today the market was down huge, and the earnings release of Nov 14th was in the middle of the last correction.
Anyway, doesnt matter for those of us already holding long term, as David always says fundamentals have to win eventually. But for those still thinking about getting in it worth considering that timing of press releases may have kept CIMT down a bit artificially.
Based on the triangle breakout CIMT should hit $3.70 from here, about a 20% gain from current price of $3.12. A close above 3.23 should put this solidly in play. ;D
Hey David and Tokyo
thank you guys this is finally giving us the fruit of our labor. ;D
by the way I have been an evangelist on this my self with friends and co workers and some have bought into this before it got to three so I am sure my friends and co workers are just as happy I told them about this one. ;D
thanks Dave once again you're great!
hopefully this '08 will be even better!
Press Release Source: Cimatron Ltd
Cimatron and Gibbs Complete Merger
Thursday January 3, 4:00 pm ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, and MOORPARK, California, January 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, and Gibbs System, Inc., also known as Gibbs & Associates, developer of GibbsCAM®, software for programming CNC machine tools, today announced they have completed the merger of Gibbs into a newly established US subsidiary of Cimatron, as previously announced on January 2nd, 2008.
For more information about the merger, please see Cimatron's press release as of January 2nd 2008, which may also be found under the investors' section on Cimatron's website.
Quote from: pinoleropuro on January 03, 2008, 03:11:20 PM
Hey David and Tokyo
thank you guys this is finally giving us the fruit of our labor. ;D
by the way I have been an evangelist on this my self with friends and co workers and some have bought into this before it got to three so I am sure my friends and co workers are just as happy I told them about this one. ;D
thanks Dave once again you're great!
hopefully this '08 will be even better!
Hi pinoleropuro, if CIMT pushes up to $6 in the 1st half of 2008 don't forget to tell your friends and co-workers to sign up to the 3 Stocks Premium service ;D
I've been studying Gibbs & Associates (http://www.gibbscam.com/) and really love this acquisition. I see good synergies:
«Moreover, the combined distribution networks of Cimatron and Gibbs complement each other and provide excellent coverage of all target markets worldwide, including a strong presence in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. It is expected that synergies could be quickly realized by selling the combined product portfolio through the merged distribution channels.»
The price, $9.125 M looks attractive:
«Gibbs System's estimated non-GAAP revenues in 2007 were approximately $12M and estimated non-GAAP pre-tax profit was above 10% of revenues.»
If pre-tax profit was, say, 11% of revenues, it was $1.32 M. If we apply a tax rate of 35%, we get $0.858 M in annual net income, so the p/e ratio of this transaction is about $9.125 M/$0.858 M = 10.6.
Not an incredible bargain, but cheap (it is better not to be an absolute bargain, because the cause of the discount could be "problems").
I agree with Tokyopua, the general market mood doesn't favor big rises in micro-caps which are somewhat tied to global economic growth, because most people are bearish on growth at this particular moment in time. This is why CIMT didn't fly 50% on the news - the mood isn't right. But the fundamental improvement and direction of fundamentals seems obvious: CIMT is on the the rise. So it is just a matter of time for the price to reflect the improving fundamentals, in my view.
Management has a growth plan and it is executing it:
«Commenting on today's announcement, Mr. Rimon Ben Shaoul, Chairman of Cimatron added: "As we have declared in the past, Cimatron is actively looking to create more shareholder value through mergers and acquisitions.»
CIMT just paid $5 M in cash for Gibbs, so management is very confident about the future of its industry. I hope this confidence is coming from the current profits ... I am more confident now that CIMT earned 10 cents per share (or more) in Q4 2007. We'll know the actual numbers in mid February.
CIMT is currently just a $24.4 M market cap company. I'm not asking for it to become a multi-billion dollar company, all I need is a $100 M - $150 M value to earn my deserved bags of profits. I believe this is coming and I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
CIMT has been holding around $3. Investors didn't push the stock high enough to close the gap at $3.54 and I think it's better this way. The 4th quarter results, which I expect to be excellent, will be the catalyst for CIMT to open with a big gap up above $3.54 and never look back.
If things didn't happen this way the "patience island" wouldn't be an island, it would be a peninsula :)
Patience peninsula is forming nicely today
Quote from: Kublakhan on January 14, 2008, 02:08:10 PM
Patience peninsula is forming nicely today
Indeed Kublakhan, nice rally :)
It took CIMT eight months to recover from that horrible gap down back in May 2007. I always maintained that the fundamental trends continued to be positive and that 1st quarter drop was more due to seasonality than anything else. Our patience is starting to get some benefits, but this is nothing compared to what I expect for CIMT over the long term.
The company is still just a $26.8 M market cap with $40 M plus in annual revenues. Since it is a software company, I expect it to be a high profit margin business, now that the product development phase (which took about eight years - not eight months) is mostly behind the company.
In my initial estimates for the valuation model I estimated that net profit margin will be something like 15% over the long term, which on $40 M revenue would mean $6 M in net income, or $0.64 EP fully diluted share. Apply an earnings multiple of 20 and get $12.8 price per share.
I believe CIMT has the potential to be a $10 - $15 stock in 12 months time.
It looks cute now ;D
You'er doing excellent work David
Quote from: tokyopua on January 03, 2008, 02:56:24 PM
Based on the triangle breakout CIMT should hit $3.70 from here, about a 20% gain from current price of $3.12. A close above 3.23 should put this solidly in play. ;D
The gap around $3.54 could provide some resistance to attaining the triangle breakout target, but we are getting close and faster than I thought we would. I am happy either way, today was a great day for all of use Patience Island faithful ;)
Quote from: Garoh on January 14, 2008, 05:37:39 PM
It looks cute now ;D
You'er doing excellent work David
Thanks Garoh, unfortunately your kind words are not matched by the actual results, at least not over the short term. But I remain confident that in six months time we'll see the benefits of my actions today.
QuoteThe gap around $3.54 could provide some resistance to attaining the triangle breakout target, but we are getting close and faster than I thought we would. I am happy either way, today was a great day for all of use Patience Island faithful ;)
Yep, it was better to have yesterday's pullback without having closed the gap on an intraday basis ...
Fundamentally CIMT looks on track or even exceeding expectations (for example, I had 20% revenue growth in my valuation model, but with the acquisitions revenue growth will be more like 100% in 2008) so I'll keep holding the stock.
WOW! CIMT has been holding up well throughout this bipolar market.
Like the dude on the yahoo board says,
"See ya'll at $12.00 or higher!"
Corrections
David
what is so special in CIMT (like IMMR, for example)?
I see CIMT as only growing by buying another companies
Best,
Vova
QuoteDavid
what is so special in CIMT (like IMMR, for example)?
CIMT is a software company which lost money between 2000 and 2005 as it was developing its products. Now the major development phase is behind us and the company is highly profitable.
I see $0.22 EPS in 2007 and there can be immense profit growth in 2008, because revenue and net profit margin are expanding.
Not all companies have to be special to be great investments. In CIMT, I'm just waiting for it to jump from a $20 M - $25 M market cap to $100 M plus market cap. I'm pretty positive that fundamentals deserve that and it will eventually happen.
As for the short term, and by short term I mean 1 year time period ... fundamentals don't matter, as we've seen with yesterday's 15.1% drop, which was due to ... ah, nothing.
Nothing new on CIMT. I expect 10 cents EPS when the company reports Q4 2007 results and hopefully that will provide a nice boost to the shares, since it fell back down for no apparent reason, other than the general market weakness and its low liquidity, which works both ways.
From Yahoo:
Cimatron partnering with Mazak.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3664&tid=2955&mid=2955&tof=4&frt=2
I see that our basher(growlin bear,...) once again changed his nickname ...
If I'm doing "parallel" with two companies SILC & CIMT ....
wow.. where CIMT may go! :o
Talked to CFO.. He diplomatically escaped from question about earnings date :-[
Best,
Vova
QuoteIf I'm doing "parallel" with two companies SILC & CIMT ....
wow.. where CIMT may go! :o
Besides both companies being small caps based in Israel, I don't see many more similarities between them notbeln.
QuoteTalked to CFO.. He diplomatically escaped from question about earnings date :-[
Well, it has to be before March 15, so less than 6 weeks to go.
Apparently some people are losing patience with CIMT, since we've been having intraday sell offs with volume above average. This isn't due to any fundamental change within the specific company, but because investors look at the side and see many stocks rising right now and fall into the temptation of switching CIMT for another stock.
But, as we know, CIMT is the type of stock which can rise 100% or more in one single day, if the right news hits the press, like for example, a $0.10 EPS in one quarter ;)
With the Microsystems and Gibbs acquisition, 2008 looks very promising for CIMT. With a gross margin of 80%, this $21 M market cap software company can really thrive and I remain very optimistic on CIMT.
David
I just look at SILC profits. If CIMT get the same profits, and you said they can,
CIMT's share price will grow like SILC.
Best,
Vova
End of February!
Best,
Vova
Quote from: notbeln on February 04, 2008, 06:35:31 AM
David
I just look at SILC profits. If CIMT get the same profits, and you said they can,
CIMT's share price will grow like SILC.
Best,
Vova
Indeed, I believe CIMT can be as profitable as SILC over the long term, but the businesses are very different. Anyway, the effect on the share price should be similar (I wish I had been more patient with SILC this time - but it's a waste of time to be thinking about the past mistakes, I need to carry just the lessons, not the pain).
Quote from: notbeln on February 05, 2008, 03:14:05 AM
End of February!
Best,
Vova
So, we're about 20 days away from the earnings release, thanks for the information Vova :)
I guess CIMT waited for 2008 to begin to announce and complete the Gibbs acquisition (it was announced in January 2, 2008 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080102/ukw002.html?.v=3)), because they didn't want to damage the 4th quarter EPS number by adding the new shares issued for the acquisition.
It's another hint that numbers will be quite positive. I'm figuring 10 cents per share, 43% above the 7 cents CIMT reported last year. This should expand CIMT's earnings multiple, which, by my account and considering the $0.10 EPS I expect for the 4th quarter, is $2.94/$0.22 = 13.3.
The patience island is stretching a lot, but I didn't thought we would be out of it before the earnings, so ... I'll just have to keep waiting for the news and continue holding the stock.
So probably the EPS of the 1st Qtr 08 will be 'hurt' because of the new shares issued?!
Quote from: Se7en on February 05, 2008, 07:03:39 AM
So probably the EPS of the 1st Qtr 08 will be 'hurt' because of the new shares issued?!
Well, no, because Gibbs will also contribute to Q1 2008 and that company is profitable. I expect Gibbs to earn more net income than CIMT's increase in the number of shares outstanding and contribute to an overall higher EPS in Q1 2008.
However, the 1st quarter is seasonally weaker than the 4th, so if we're going to get a "big number" we'll probably get it right now in February.
David
What do you think about CAM market potential?
http://www.standardpoors.co.il/companies.asp?pageID=&CleanFormat=0&companyID=140§ion=2
Only $900 million ? ???
Best,
Vova
Today we're exactly 3 months after the release of the 3rd Qtr results, let's hope we hear soon something about the 4rd Qtr! :)
Cimatron Names Bill Gibbs President North America
Friday February 15, 8:00 am ET
Assumes Full Responsibility for Both GibbsCAM and CimatronE Business Lines in North America
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080215/ukf015.html?.v=4 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080215/ukf015.html?.v=4)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, February 15 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced the nomination of Mr. Bill Gibbs as President North America, replacing Mr. Sam Golan. Bill Gibbs has also been nominated Director at Cimatron Technologies, Inc. (CTI). Under the new leadership of Bill Gibbs, CTI will continue to focus on developing the CimatronE business in North America, offering the best in class integrated CAD/CAM solution for Mold and Die makers.
Following the recently announced merger of Gibbs and Associates into Cimatron, Cimatron intends to capitalize on the strong presence of Gibbs and Associates in North America in order to enhance the sales efforts for CimatronE in this territory. Bill Gibbs, who will continue to maintain his position as President and CEO of Gibbs and Associates will now be responsible for promoting both CimatronE and GibbsCAM product lines in North America.
Quote from: notbeln on February 13, 2008, 05:36:16 AM
David
What do you think about CAM market potential?
http://www.standardpoors.co.il/companies.asp?pageID=&CleanFormat=0&companyID=140§ion=2
Only $900 million ? ???
Best,
Vova
Thanks for this link Vova, it's interesting. $900 M is a lot man, don't forget CIMT is just a $22 M market cap company. If it goes to $100 M (which I believe is likely) one gets 400% return on his investment now.
There was a press release just out for CIMT:
• Cimatron Names Bill Gibbs President North America (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080215/ukf015.html?.v=4)
PR Newswire (Fri 8:00am)
It's a good sign that Bill Gibbs is taking an important role in CIMT's management. It bodes well for the merger's success.
This was posted on CIMT's board on Yahoo. This person has extensive knowledge of the business as well as CIMT's business. Sounds pretty good.
"Ok, so is a 20F similar to a 10k? They still have to post the 10Q though, which will be soon right?
Any thoughts on how this quarter will compare to other fourth quarters?>>
No 10Q for the 4th quarter. Companies only file 10Q for the first three quarters.
I expect Q4 sales to approach or possibly exceed $11 million which would be a record for a quarter.
Sales for the first 9 months were $18.759 million
It will ake 11.241 million in Q4 sales to reach $30 million for the year, excluding Gibbs which was not acquired until 2008.
$30 million revenues for the year is possible.
As far as profits go there are two main variables that could have a negative impact on Q4 earnings.
My guess is that the cost involved in the Gibbs acquisition might approach $650,000 and most certainly exceed $500,000. The questions are
1. In what quarter or quarters do they book these costs. It might be possible to split them up between 2007 Q4 and 2008 Q1 depending on when they were actually incurred though GAAP might require booking them all in the quarter when the deal was actually closed.
2. Whether they can capitalize these costs under Goodwill and not have to expense them.
The other major variable in expenses in Q4 are marketing costs. CIMT has been really cranking up their selected geographic area marketing. In fact in the last conference call Haran mentioned that.
We will just have to wait and see what those numbers are when the the earnings are released.
I am looking for from $.10 - #.15 for the quarter.
For 2008 right now I am projecting
Revenues of $50 million or more
EPS of between $.40 and $.45.
For 2007
--------------
Revenues $30 million
EPS from #.22 - $.27
For 2008 "
--------------
Some point about CIMT's outlook (after merger with Gibbs) disturbe me:
Why they said that revenue for 2008 will exceed $40M and not $50M?
If they sell $10-11M at this moment without Gibbs, they can sell for more than $50M
in 2008! May be menegement is too conservative?
Best,
Vova
I spoke to Yael from IR. She said that management usually very conservative
and not give any outlooks. $40M is "some general number" , may be they know that
it's situation at current moment, IMHO.
Best,
Vova
QuoteI expect Q4 sales to approach or possibly exceed $11 million which would be a record for a quarter.
$30 million revenues for the year is possible.
These expectations are very high. $11 M would be almost double of what the company achieved in the 4th quarter of 2006, when it sold $6 M. Microsystems may have sold $3 M in Q4 2007 (since it sells about $10 M a year and there's some positive seasonality in the 4th quarter - but not a lot).
I would be very happy with $10 M in revenue, but if it's $11 M, that's even better :)
QuoteI am looking for from $.10 - #.15 for the quarter.
Again, this is very optimistic. I maintain my $0.1 EPS expectation. This should be enough to push CIMT to $4.5. We'll, if it's $0.15 EPS ... I guess we would see $6 or more over the short term.
Quote from: notbeln on February 19, 2008, 01:15:04 AM
Some point about CIMT's outlook (after merger with Gibbs) disturbe me:
Why they said that revenue for 2008 will exceed $40M and not $50M?
If they sell $10-11M at this moment without Gibbs, they can sell for more than $50M
in 2008! May be menegement is too conservative?
Best,
Vova
You can't extrapolate the 4th quarter into a full year because there's positive seasonality in the 4th quarter.
If CIMT keeps growing as I think it will, it will certainly achieve $50 M revenue in 2008, helped by the Microsystem and Gibbs acquisition.
QuoteFor 2008 right now I am projecting
Revenues of $50 million or more
EPS of between $.40 and $.45.
EPS of $0.425 would mean net income of $4.04 M, which on $50 M revenue would mean a net profit margin of 8%. I think that over the long term CIMT's net profit margin will be closer to 15%.
So yes, I believe these 2008 estimates are entirely possible and CIMT may even do better than this.
I expect CIMT to be a $8-$10 stock by year's end and $15-$20 in late 2009.
I'll continue holding CIMT for the long term.
David,
I read a message suggested on the "Messages" for CIMT noting that, "CIMT is the stock of the month featured in the Bowser Report." I don't know how relevant this is, but thought you might like to know.
James Mark
do you have a link?
Quote from: pinoleropuro on February 19, 2008, 10:20:09 AM
do you have a link?
Apparently the Bowser report is sent by a newsletter and you have to be a member ...
We are close. Lets hope for the best
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1
I like the fact that it's before the market opens and that it's immediately followed by a CC, first time it happens like this if I'm not mistaken.
Quote from: jdmark23 on February 19, 2008, 10:07:37 AM
David,
I read a message suggested on the "Messages" for CIMT noting that, "CIMT is the stock of the month featured in the Bowser Report." I don't know how relevant this is, but thought you might like to know.
James Mark
Thanks James :)
Quote from: Se7en on February 19, 2008, 10:34:02 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on February 19, 2008, 10:20:09 AM
do you have a link?
Apparently the Bowser report is sent by a newsletter and you have to be a member ...
Yes, I just bought the "Bowser's Company of the Month Report (http://www.stock-information.com/catalog2/index.php?cPath=8)" for $12.
When I receive the report I'll share it with you.
Quote from: notbeln on February 19, 2008, 12:10:11 PM
We are close. Lets hope for the best
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1
Quote from: Se7en on February 19, 2008, 01:46:43 PM
I like the fact that it's before the market opens and that it's immediately followed by a CC, first time it happens like this if I'm not mistaken.
• Cimatron's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results Release Scheduled for February 27th (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Tue 11:19am)
One week from now we'll get CIMT's 4th quarter and full year 2007 results, immediately followed by a conference call. I think the same way as Se7en, this is just the 3rd earnings conference call made by CIMT's management and it is the first time it is right after the earnings release.
I continue to call for $0.10 EPS for the quarter, but maybe we'll get a bit more ... $0.15 EPS would put the stock completely on fire, possibly rising 100% in one single day, like it happened a year ago. But $0.10 would be good enough to confirm my long term views.
I don't know if it was because of the Bowser report, but someone bought about 15,000 shares right at the open at $3 and this helped CIMT in yesterday's session. It would be nice to draw a bullish chart for the upcoming earnings release ... we would then have a perfect combination of the fundamentals and the technicals, both pushing north.
Hi David
What is brewing in the CIMT pot???
Is this the "bubbles for the champagne"
Excelent job and stromg hands
Congrats ;D
Quote from: David Randolph on February 20, 2008, 06:08:41 AM
Quote from: jdmark23 on February 19, 2008, 10:07:37 AM
David,
I read a message suggested on the "Messages" for CIMT noting that, "CIMT is the stock of the month featured in the Bowser Report." I don't know how relevant this is, but thought you might like to know.
James Mark
Thanks James :)
Quote from: Se7en on February 19, 2008, 10:34:02 AM
Quote from: pinoleropuro on February 19, 2008, 10:20:09 AM
do you have a link?
Apparently the Bowser report is sent by a newsletter and you have to be a member ...
Yes, I just bought the "Bowser's Company of the Month Report (http://www.stock-information.com/catalog2/index.php?cPath=8)" for $12.
When I receive the report I'll share it with you.
Quote from: notbeln on February 19, 2008, 12:10:11 PM
We are close. Lets hope for the best
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1
Quote from: Se7en on February 19, 2008, 01:46:43 PM
I like the fact that it's before the market opens and that it's immediately followed by a CC, first time it happens like this if I'm not mistaken.
• Cimatron's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results Release Scheduled for February 27th (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080219/uktu062.html?.v=1)
PR Newswire (Tue 11:19am)
One week from now we'll get CIMT's 4th quarter and full year 2007 results, immediately followed by a conference call. I think the same way as Se7en, this is just the 3rd earnings conference call made by CIMT's management and it is the first time it is right after the earnings release.
I continue to call for $0.10 EPS for the quarter, but maybe we'll get a bit more ... $0.15 EPS would put the stock completely on fire, possibly rising 100% in one single day, like it happened a year ago. But $0.10 would be good enough to confirm my long term views.
I don't know if it was because of the Bowser report, but someone bought about 15,000 shares right at the open at $3 and this helped CIMT in yesterday's session. It would be nice to draw a bullish chart for the upcoming earnings release ... we would then have a perfect combination of the fundamentals and the technicals, both pushing north.
I was part of the volume today myself. I was trying to buy since $3 yesterday for a trading position but that 15K shares moved the stock and I couldnt get in, finally got in today at $3.20 for a trading position of 2500 shares added to my core position. Fingers crossed for the 27th, might add a few more shares on any $3.00 "weakness". ;)
Seems like this time we might see a run up to earnings happen, and then even a big jump after that as well.
I knew I should have backed up the truck when I bought more shares at $2/share but I was a little cautious. I am up 32% already on CIMT but if it comes back I am loading up some more.
Gracias David! ;) ;D ::)
Interview with Cimatron CEO, Dan Haran
http://seekingalpha.com/article/65699-interview-with-cimatron-ceo-dan-haran?source=yahoo (http://seekingalpha.com/article/65699-interview-with-cimatron-ceo-dan-haran?source=yahoo)
Hi Dan, can you tell us what Cimatron does?
Dan Haran, CEO: Cimatron is in the CAD-CAM arena for manufacturing. When companies manufacture things, they still need a lot of CAD-CAM or Numeric Control [NC]. When people have to machine anything (milling, turning, etc.), this all needs to be computer driven.
What do you do for plastic manufacturing?
DH: With plastic-injection molds, it's quite complex to make the mold. It's not just two pieces of metal with a cavity. Manufacturers need to inject plastic, cool it, eject the part – the machine to do this is quite a complex machine. Molds have up to 5,000 parts (pins, screws, plates). To design these machines, it's a very complex design task. Typically, one person designs the product, but another person (usually in another company) designs the molds for each part. Having good software is essential to managing this process.
What about metal?
DH: Working with metal, it's a similarly complex process. Every metal part has to be manufactured by a press. Someone has to design a press. The die is a tool that goes into the press. The progressive process turns a coil of metal into parts. Dies and molds are a key part of tooling.
What's the manufacturing process like in aerospace?
DH: When it comes to turbine blades, you need to take a block of metal and machine each part individually. There is a whole industry focused on discrete manufacturing — you really have to machine one by one.
So, where does Cimatron come in?
DH: Cimatron develops and sells software to moldmakers, die makers, parts manufacturers or subcontractors. OEMs don't have milling machines but all suppliers down the chain do. So, we're playing in this space.
Where does most of your global manufacturing take place?
DH: Europe still accounts for 44% of global manufacturing, the U.S. and Canada 30%, and the rest comes from the Far East. By the way, Vietnam is the new China. We're also seeing things migrating eastward in Europe. The trend to send everything to China is stabilized. High-end products can't be sent to China. Quality, tolerance and even the steel is subpar there, and dies did not go East like molds did. Expertise and know-how is certainly required for dies, and that hasn't been shipped eastward.
How big is your market?
DH: Simdata provides data on software supplied to the manufacturing industry. The market sizing is $1.3B. We see the overall market growing 7% per year. It's a mature industry. These numbers, by the way, include software in the distribution channel. The industry is $900 million if you just look at the vendor.
So, what's your growth strategy?
DH: Our growth strategy is really to grow within our markets. A few years ago, our product suite just appealed to plastic industry. Mold design is much more mature than die design and consequently, more competitive. In die design, AutoCAD, competitors are still in 2D and should see significant growth. Just 18 months ago, we didn't have a product for complex 5-axis milling, a truly complex technology.
We've been selling this product for 18 months and have 14% of the market. Most shops don't have 5-axis machines, but now, we're seeing rapid growth in 5-axis, and Cimatron is riding this growth. In this industry, you must have relationships with machine vendors. Buyers don't trust any software vendor – they turn to the machine vendor to ask who should power their software. We're busy working on relationships. We do lots of test cuts, give free seats, and hold open houses to build our presence.
How does pricing work?
DH: The industry uses modular pricing for software vendors. The average price/seat is around $15,000 but it varies a lot by deal, and geography.
Who are your competitors?
DH: The "Big 3" is comprised of UGS (recently bought by Siemens), Dessault (Catia), and PTC. Combined, these firms sell about $100M in the industry. No one company dominates the market, and we have competitors in 5-axis. UG, who was recently bought by Siemens and OpenMind, a German company, is the leader in the 5-axis market.
Tell us about Gibbs, your recent acquisition.
DH: We recently announced that we acquired Gibbs. We did this to get into 2.5-axis where the z-axis is pretty simple. They see large quantities and need to be programmed and machined properly. Millturn (combo milling and turning) is the fastest growing sector in manufacturing. It's like a factory in one machine. Gibbs has a best in class product, focused on production.
CIMT has traditionally focused on tooling, but Bill Gibbs agreed to stay with company for 5 years. In 2007, it had $12 million in revenues. Looking at non-U.S. GAAP, it has 10% profits. Distribution for both companies is complementary. Gibbs has 70% of its business in the U.S., while CIMT has traditionally focused on Europe and Japan. We're now mobilizing to sell Gibbs products in Korea. The deal was $5 million in cash, and 1.5 million shares.
What's the distribution model?
DH: The model for distribution depends on an individual country. Sometimes we hire our own employees and sometimes we either work with local partner or buy local partner. We cover 90% of the industry with CIMT product. Auto is still largest piece of revenues, since Auto is the largest industry using plastic parts, then consumer electronics [CE], toys, and medical (which we see as a high growth area). We're focused on success in execution and can now address a market 3 times bigger than what it was two years ago.
We want countries like Japan, who see Cimatron solely as a NC expert, to know about Gibbs and the rest of our product suite. We think there will be a lot of cross selling opportunities resulting from the acquisition. In 2008 and 2009, we're looking to keep growing and becoming more profitable. We are still looking for more acquisitions and consolidating the market. I like to keep an open mind about balancing organic and acquisitive growth. We're tight on budget control.
What are the risks for Cimatron?
DH: A global recession could hurt CIMT, as could fewer phones, and plasma TVs. Gibbs acquisition is not being integrated from a product point of view so there is not a lot of acquisition risk.
What are you doing to get the word out?
DH: We're talking to Israeli investment houses. Our immediate targets are Israeli institutional investors. We also attended the Unterberg Small Cap conference. We have U.S. shareholders, too. Our float is low and we hear from investors, "we'd like to buy, but there isn't a lot of stock out there to buy." In terms of holdings, I have an options package. Our two major shareholders are DBSI and Rimon Ben Shaul (Chairman), and they own about 50% of company after dilution
I am imposing a new rule (for myself). I am selling half whenever the stock doubles. I am so tired of seeing ASTI, SDTH, etc., etc., etc., etc., double only to trickle back to minimal gains.
So, if CIMT sees $5.30, I am selling half.
it makes perfect sense since ot seems that on a short term basis people do some profit taking when ever a stock has a run up anyway.
Looks like some people desperately wanted some shares before the close and before earnings next week! ;D
Nice close! >:D
Quote from: buddjas1 on February 22, 2008, 03:57:44 PM
I am imposing a new rule (for myself). I am selling half whenever the stock doubles. I am so tired of seeing ASTI, SDTH, etc., etc., etc., etc., double only to trickle back to minimal gains.
So, if CIMT sees $5.30, I am selling half.
That is kind of why I got a trading position in CIMT. I can sell it all and still keep my long term position 8).
Ditto that. By staying long, you really get to know these stocks and get a feel for entry/exits. Seems I have a problem with exits too... Its just always hard for me to do alot of trading due to my job.
I had sells in for SDTH at my double point that never filled, had a similar thing happen on the GSB run to $7+. Seems, I'm always just a hair too late on the trigger...
You can pretty much bet that after a strong run on these small caps, you'll see a pretty good pullback.
It may make David wince, but having a long position combined with a bit of trading on occasion provides a little excitement.
Kent
I am up 52% now ;D ;D ;D ::) ::) ::)
thanks Dave!!!
you da man!!!
indeed, nice close >:D
I guess Bowser is sending me his CIMT analysis via regular mail (which could take up to a week) so I just wrote him to see if he can send it to me via e-mail as soon as possible. I would like to know which are his projections for the company so I could compare them with the upcoming results next Wednesday before the open.
Technically CIMT is definitely out of the patience island. We now have a minor resistance at $4.10, but the real one will only come at $4.73.
I think a $0.10 EPS in the 4th quarter would be enough to take us at least to the $4.73 high for now. If we get more than $0.10 as some people are advocating ... we'll then study the new situation.
Some minor news out for CIMT:
------------------
Related Quotes
Sym. Price Chg.
CIMT Trade
News 3.754 -0.086
Cimatron Expands in the Philippines Through MDCGroup
Feb 25, 2008 11:24:00 (ET)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, February 25, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cimatron Limited (CIMT, Trade ) a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced today that MDCGroup has been appointed as Cimatron's distributor in the Philippines.
MDCGroup is a recognized technology and market leader in the field of mechanical design automation, dedicated to the sales and support of advanced software solutions to Philippine manufactures. The company is the largest reseller of CAD/CAM solutions in the Philippines, with headquarters in Alabang and a newly opened office in Cebu.
"Manufacturers and toolmakers worldwide are looking for solutions that can help them deliver high quality products faster and at lower cost," said Kobi Rosenwasser, VP Asia Pacific for Cimatron. "MDCGroup has the resources and the knowledge to provide superb support to Cimatron's customers in the Philippines and help them achieve these goals."
"Cimatron provides the most comprehensive, integrated CAD/CAM solution for tooling and manufacturing," said MDCGroup General Manager Carlos AImazan. "We are excited to offer the Cimatron product suite and look forward to serving the many local manufacturers that are in need of such a solution."
About Cimatron
With more than 25 years of experience and over 20,000 installations worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of integrated, CAD/CAM solutions for mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts. Cimatron is committed to providing comprehensive, cost-effective solutions that streamline manufacturing cycles, enable collaboration with outside vendors, and ultimately shorten product delivery time. Cimatron's cutting-edge CAD/CAM solutions are widely used in the automotive, medical, consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries.
Founded in 1982, Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol CIMT. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distributor network are located in over 35 countries to serve customers worldwide with complete pre- and post-sales support. For more information, please visit http://www.cimatron.com
About MDCGroup
For over 19 years, MDCGroup has been serving manufacturers in the Philippines with advanced CAD/CAM solutions and hands-on services and support. Today, MDCGroup is the largest reseller of CAD/CAM software in the Philippines, with headquarters in Alabang and a newly opened office in Cebu.
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the company's plans, objectives and expected financial and operating results. The words "may," "could," "would," "will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "plan," and similar expressions or variations thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the company's ability to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: currency fluctuations, global economic and political conditions, marketing demand for Cimatron products and services, long sales cycle, new product development, assimilating future acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers and partners, and increased competition. For more details about the risks and uncertainties of the business, refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchanges Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of or the extent to which any single factor or risk, or combination of them, may cause. Cimatron undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
For More Information Contact:
Idit Pass Lagziel
Marketing Manager
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-5312098
Email:
[email protected] Ilan Erez
Chief Financial Officer
Cimatron Ltd.
Phone: +972-3-531-2121
Email:
[email protected] Yael Nevat
Commitment-IR.com
Phone: +972-3-611-4466
+972-50-762-6215
Email:
[email protected]SOURCE Cimatron Ltd
Woohoo! Somebody keeps waking up and buying this baby at the close, its happening again now ;D :D ;)
Closed at 3.98... David, you mentioned a possibility of the stock being able to double in one day if earnings are good enough, but CIMT has been running a bit into earnings. Do you think there can still be a doubling from here to say $8.00 if earnings are say $0.15, etc?
Again some +5000 share buys today, sweet! :)
We have a few hours before we get the result for Q4 earnings ..
Honestly I didn't like this move for the stock from 2.90 to 4 in 10 days .. Technically I see a down move after this If I'm right , But i wish I'm wrong :)
Anyway , if we get a good result everything is gonna change .
I'm still holding the stock because I trust David's analysis ;)
Let's hope we get best result tomorrow.
hopefully we did not get this run up based on people buying on rumors and have a sell of due to them selling on the news. :-\
I am still holding either way for the long term.
I think CIMT is undervalued on current earnings, even with the recent run-up. $0.08 EPS or higher, and I think CIMT will keep going up. $.10 would be awesome, and would send CIMT over $6, imo. CIMT has to beat the $0.07 from 4Q06. $0.07 or lower, and CIMT will be punished (back to patience island or lower).
Earnings out. Did I see 12 cents?
up25% pre market :D :D ;D ::)
Extended Hours: Last 4.90 Change +1.005 (+25.80%) Bid 4.75 x200 Ask 4.90 x400
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues of $28.7 Million and Ten Year Record Net Income of $1.9 Million in 2007Last update: 2/27/2008 8:05:00 AMRecord Quarterly Revenues of $9.9 Million in Q4 2007, up 63.9% Compared to Q4 2006. Annual Revenues up 33.5%. Net Income in Q4 2007 was $965 Thousand, up 73.2% Over Q4 2006. Annual Net Income up 274%. $0.12 EPS in Q4 2007, $0.24 EPS in 2007 GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, February 27, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cimatron Limited (CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2007. 2007 was a record year for Cimatron. Strong year-over-year revenue growth, both for Q4/2007 and for the entire year, translated into strong operating and net income. The growth is attributed to growing acceptance of the CimatronE product line and to the positive contribution of Microsystem's results which, as of Q3/2007, are fully consolidated. Financial Highlights: Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2007 were $9.9 million, representing 63.9% growth compared to $6.0 million recorded in the fourth quarter of 2006. Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2007 increased 33.5% to $28.7 million, compared to $21.5 million in 2006. Gross Income for the fourth quarter of 2007 increased 49.7% to $7.7 million as compared to $5.1 million in the same period in 2006. Gross Income in 2007 increased 30% to $23.2 million as compared to $17.8 million in 2006. Gross margin in 2007 was 81%. Operating Income in the fourth quarter of 2007 was $831 thousand, compared to an operating income of $366 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2006. In 2007 the company recorded operating income of $1.68 million, compared to an operating income of $48 thousand in 2006. The significant improvement in the operating income results mostly from the increase in revenues. Net Income for the fourth quarter of 2007 increased 73.2% to $965 thousand, or $0.12 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $557 thousand, or $0.07 per diluted share recorded in the same quarter of 2006. For 2007, net income increased 274% to $1.9 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $514 thousand, or $0.07 per diluted share in 2006. Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are very pleased to report a strong year of improved top and bottom lines. Cimatron's results for 2007 are attributed to our efforts to develop and launch competitive products to the entire toolmaking and manufacturing industry, as well as to the positive contribution of the Microsystem acquisition. During the last two months, since we have merged Gibbs and Associates, we are working closely with Mr. Bill Gibbs, our new President North America, and his team to leverage the potential synergy from the merger, pushing additional products to the joint distribution network. Gibbs System's estimated non-GAAP revenues in 2007 were approximately $12M and estimated non-GAAP pre-tax profit was above 10% of revenues. We expect to see benefits from the merger unfolding throughout 2008 and beyond." Mr. Rimon Ben-Shaoul, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Cimatron said, "The 2007 financial results reflect good execution of our long term product and marketing strategy. The Microsystem and Gibbs and Associates merger transactions create additional economies of scale for the coming years." Conference Call Cimatron's management will host a conference call today, at 9:00 EST, 16:00 Israel time. On the call, management will review and discuss the results, and will also be available to answer questions by investors. To participate, please call one of the following teleconferencing numbers. Please begin placing your call at least 5 minutes before the conference call commences.
USA: +1-888-668-9141
just awesome
ON FIRE >:D >:D >:D
HUGE!
Only "selling and administrative" is high .
• Cimatron Reports Record Revenues of $28.7 Million and Ten Year Record Net Income of $1.9 Million in 2007 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080227/ukw062.html?.v=8)
PR Newswire (Wed 8:05am)
12 cents EPS in the 4th quarter, so better than the 10 cents I was expecting.
The press release has all the right words and numbers. It is clear that 2008, with continuing momentum from Cimatron and Microsystems, coupled with Gibbs, will be even better than 2007.
Net profit margin in the 4th quarter was an impressive 9.74%, getting closer to the 15% that I see over the long term for this company.
EPS growth was 243% in 2007 versus 2006.
There are two things that may not let CIMT fly as much as it should today though:
1) Because CIMT made as much EPS in the 4th quarter as it did in the other three quarters of the year, that may show that 4th quarter results were positively affected by seasonality, which is true;
2) S&P futures are deeply in the red this morning, so, not helping.
The bottom line is results were spectacular and the future looks even better. The market's reaction is anybody's guess, but over the long term CIMT will be worth more than $10 a share.
Excellent result ..... but we need to see the conference call effect in 10 minutes ...
I still see a down move for the stock !!
Let's see
Results are awesome! :P
Heavy buying!! ;D
Quote from: David Randolph on February 27, 2008, 08:38:32 AM
The market's reaction is anybody's guess, but over the long term CIMT will be worth more than $10 a share.
I think CIMT is worth close to $10 on current earnings. CIMT has a long way to go and I will not be selling at $5, despite the 100% gain. $0.12 will get people's attention. We'll probably see a new patience island at $6, until next earnings release, which is just fine to me.
Does anybody has a link for the CC?
So far so good :)
It's really a good result but there's some pressure from the market ..
Quote from: Se7en on February 27, 2008, 10:02:51 AM
Does anybody has a link for the CC?
Nope, just tomorrow:
«To participate, please call one of the following teleconferencing numbers. Please begin placing your call at least 5 minutes before the conference call commences.
USA: +1-888-668-9141
Israel: +972(0)3-9180609
For those unable to listen to the live call, a replay of the call will be
available from the day after the call under the investor relations section of Cimatron's website, at: http://www.cimatron.com»
Excellent Q. CC was not so great. Most speakers very hard to understand and could not or would not answer most of analysts questions giving little in the way of outlook. I continue to hold.
Quote from: Garoh on February 27, 2008, 08:57:04 AM
I still see a down move for the stock !!
You were correct. It's like people feel compelled to sell on earnings, no matter what the earnings were. The market is so irrational sometimes.
Well , must not close below 3.80 otherwise it's gonna be ugly :-\
Quote from: buddjas1 on February 27, 2008, 01:18:55 PM
Quote from: Garoh on February 27, 2008, 08:57:04 AM
I still see a down move for the stock !!
You were correct. It's like people feel compelled to sell on earnings, no matter what the earnings were. The market is so irrational sometimes.
Yes, I guess a lot of people were waiting for this news to take profits. Maybe even Gibbs himself unloaded some of his 1.5 million shares (maybe not, since he received $4 M plus in cash, so he doesn't need selling).
But worry not, as there are sellers on the news, there will also be buyers on the sell the news, as CIMT keeps trending higher to reach its fundamental value, which in my view is north of $6 given the current fundamentals.
Companies in the Technical & System Software industry (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CIMT) trade at an average p/e of 26.46 and this multiple on a trailing basis would put CIMT at $6.35. But of course, CIMT is growing much faster than its industry so it should be valued at an higher multiple.
I'll keep holding for the long term.
Sold @ $3.80 ... :-\
Bought some more IMMR instead.
Quote from: Se7en on February 27, 2008, 01:49:05 PM
Sold @ $3.80 ... :-\
Bought some more IMMR instead.
I understand, it's hard to watch profits shrink, especially when it took so much patience and time to get them.
Today looks like January 22nd all over again, the only difference is that now we're $1 higher. This is how bullish trends go, stocks have sharp pullbacks as they move up. My take is a couple of months from now we'll be above $5.
I've been holding CIMT for almost a year now (April 07) and since I only can buy a few stocks of the Main because I don't have that much resources, I'll have to choose and at this point, I think I feel more comfortable with IMMR.
Man! I should have sold half my position this morning on the premarket when it was over 25% above yesterday's close!
oh well I am on this one for the long term anyway so hopefully this was just a little profit taking.
Quote from: Garoh on February 26, 2008, 04:41:35 PM
We have a few hours before we get the result for Q4 earnings ..
Honestly I didn't like this move for the stock from 2.90 to 4 in 10 days .. Technically I see a down move after this If I'm right , But i wish I'm wrong :)
Anyway , if we get a good result everything is gonna change .
I'm still holding the stock because I trust David's analysis ;)
Let's hope we get best result tomorrow.
Just as Expected the stock went down ::)
I sold 50% around 4.30 , we had excellent result but people looked confued and afraid of a 50% drop as it did in May .
Most of the people waiting for the CC to get some clue .
David we'll be waiting for you to give us a brief details about CC tomorrow :)
I havent hit the one year mark on my main position, so didnt sell today. Also held on to my trading position, as I have lots of cash to work with still and we are in rally mode for the broader market. I will continue to have some patience with CIMT, have come this far afterall. I might have sold if results were below $.10, but 0.12 was great. The stock seems to have just sold the news and come back to near the 13 ema at the same time, could have happened this way on any other day without news too.
CIMT: Short Interest UP 3.5% to 18.9K in Mid Feb 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008 16:17ET
According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Cimatron Limited (NasdaqSC: CIMT) INCREASED 3.5% to 18,884 shares as reported in mid-February, 2008.
Based on CIMT's 20-day average daily share volume of 32,209, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
CC will be interesting ,also looking forward to David's comments
I've just listened to CIMT's 4th quarter conference call (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en) and I believe it went exceptionally well.
I would like to highlight just the following three issues:
1 - CIMT and Microsystems together sell 89% outside of North America. Gibbs sells almost everything in North America:
«Moreover, the combined distribution networks of Cimatron and Gibbs complement each other and provide excellent coverage of all target markets worldwide, including a strong presence in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. It is expected that synergies could be quickly realized by selling the combined product portfolio through the merged distribution channels.»
A lot of cross selling is expected in the future and CIMT's CEO gave some examples.
2 - Gibbs is in business since 1984 and said the 4th quarter 2007 was their best year ever and December was their best month ever. He said January and February are doing well.
3 - CIMT's CEO said he didn't see any impact of the so called "economic crisis" in CIMT's business, at least not so far.
CIMT earned $0.24 EPS in 2007 and I was glad to know that they kept they're R&D expenses at $1.1 M for the quarter (which is about average). This tells me results were not achieved at the cost of lower R&D investments.
I believe CIMT will earn something like 40 cents EPS in 2008 and the stock will close the year in the $8-$10 range.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Thanks david
Quote from: David Randolph on February 28, 2008, 09:05:57 AM
I've just listened to CIMT's 4th quarter conference call (http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en) and I believe it went exceptionally well.
I would like to highlight just the following three issues:
1 - CIMT and Microsystems together sell 89% outside of North America. Gibbs sells almost everything in North America:
«Moreover, the combined distribution networks of Cimatron and Gibbs complement each other and provide excellent coverage of all target markets worldwide, including a strong presence in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. It is expected that synergies could be quickly realized by selling the combined product portfolio through the merged distribution channels.»
A lot of cross selling is expected in the future and CIMT's CEO gave some examples.
2 - Gibbs is in business since 1984 and said the 4th quarter 2007 was their best year ever and December was their best month ever. He said January and February are doing well.
3 - CIMT's CEO said he didn't see any impact of the so called "economic crisis" in CIMT's business, at least not so far.
CIMT earned $0.24 EPS in 2007 and I was glad to know that they kept they're R&D expenses at $1.1 M for the quarter (which is about average). This tells me results were not achieved at the cost of lower R&D investments.
I believe CIMT will earn something like 40 cents EPS in 2008 and the stock will close the year in the $8-$10 range.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
I'm glad you were more impressed with the CC than me. Disappointing price action after it. I guess we will have to wait for the "Bowser" boys to finish taking their quick little profits before we can rise again. I'll also keep holding for the LT.
I am afraid you're right BigSully1. If as some follow the stochastics it looks like the daily stochastics are pointing downward and there is resistance at around $3.01/share right now. :-\
At that level it would also be meeting with the 25 and 50 day moving averages.
but it could be a great oportunity to get some more shares.
Quote from: Garoh on February 27, 2008, 01:33:41 PM
Well , must not close below 3.80 otherwise it's gonna be ugly :-\
Below $3 is good for LT buyers
QuoteI'm glad you were more impressed with the CC than me. Disappointing price action after it. I guess we will have to wait for the "Bowser" boys to finish taking their quick little profits before we can rise again. I'll also keep holding for the LT.
Yes, I feel quite sad about CIMT's reaction to what were spectacular results. It made me wonder about the value of fundamental analysis, the value of patience and investing for the long term.
But at yesterday's close I'm winning 19% on my CIMT investment in about one year, which is just a bit shy from my long term objectives. But it would have been so easy to take higher profits on the news ... and now perhaps having to wait another year for another great quarter and another 19% gain ... it makes me wonder.
Nevermind, I guess that the most relevant phrase coming out of the conference call was when Gibbs said: "You know, we're
mature businesses".
Because developing and selling CAD/CAM software is a mature industry, maybe I shouldn't expect CIMT to trade at the Technical & System Software industry average valuation of 24.57 times earnings. Maybe 15 times earnings is more appropriate. And if I consider a multiple of 15, then CIMT's current fair value is $3.6, just a bit higher than the current market value.
But I still don't get it how a business that grows EPS 243% from one year to the next can be called "mature" or valued below average, when the industry is growing just 14% a year.
My take is CIMT will earn 40 cents per share in 2008 and this, using the very conservative valuation of 15 times earnings will mean at least $6 a share one year from now. At least that.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
Stochastics are forming what looks like a rounding bottom and price is getting closer to the $3.01/share resistance
Quote from: pinoleropuro on February 28, 2008, 07:44:37 PM
I am afraid you're right BigSully1. If as some follow the stochastics it looks like the daily stochastics are pointing downward and there is resistance at around $3.01/share right now. :-\
At that level it would also be meeting with the 25 and 50 day moving averages.
but it could be a great oportunity to get some more shares.
Transcription of Q4 conference call is out:
http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en
CIMT is a $25 M market cap Israeli company. I believe its long term value will depend more on management's ability to integrate acquisitions and develop better products than the state of the US or global economy.
Fundamentally the company has been doing even better than I expected, however, due to the general market downturn, an earnings multiple contraction didn't allow it to run up and keep up with the fundamental improvement.
For example, EPS grew 71% in the 4th quarter and the stock is just 2 cents higher, or 0.65%.
I'll keep holding this one for the long term. At some point in time CIMT will be at least $100 M market cap as it captures a larger share of the $900 M CAD/CAM annual market.
Will you protect the capital buy selling if CIMT drops below the trendline?
Quote from: buddjas1 on March 07, 2008, 06:54:49 AM
Will you protect the capital buy selling if CIMT drops below the trendline?
Hi buddjas1, thanks for your question :)
The answer is no, CIMT is a very long term holding of the Main Portfolio. I've been holding this stock for roughly one year now (anniversary is next Thursday) and I'm prepared to own it three years more, regardless of the share price.
I say this because even if CIMT goes down to, say, $2 again, it still could rise up to $10-$20 in just a few months.
CIMT now trades at 12.7 times 2007 earnings, while it grew them by 243% in 2007 vs 2006. The market cap is just $24 M.
I'm sure you know all about CIMT's fundamentals. I'll keep holding CIMT.
CIMT reacted positively to the ascending long term support on the chart below. Maybe the stock will rise at just that slow rate over the long term, as the fundamentals keep improving (or the valuation expands).
If CIMT keeps respecting that ascending support, in three years time it will be around $8.5. This would represent a 41% annual return on investment over the next three years. It wouldn't be bad ...
Anyway, I have been reading some new stuff and believe I'm understanding better where my strategic mistakes were. I'll write an article with my thoughts soon.
CIMT: Partnership with Cadenas to Integrate PARTsolutions with Version 8.5
Tuesday , March 18, 2008 09:44ET
By Michael Cavallaro,
[email protected]Cimatron Limited (NasdaqSC: CIMT) is announcing a new partnership with leading part catalog provider CADENAS. The integration of CADENAS PARTsolutions into version 8.5 of Cimatron enables tool makers to shorten design cycles by incorporating ready-made CADENAS catalog parts into their mold and die assemblies. While powerful catalog functionality has long been available in Cimatron's software, the CADENAS catalogs place thousands of additional standard components at the disposal of Cimatron's users, eliminating many of the manual and time consuming steps in the tool design process. "Whether through our own research and development or by partnering with best-of-breed solution providers, our mission is to help toolmakers be more competitive by reducing costs and shortening delivery times," said Ira Bareket, Cimatron's VP Sales and Marketing. "The addition of the CADENAS catalog interface is another step in this ongoing effort. We are excited to make the rich collection of their catalogs readily available to our customers."
chart: :-\
CIMT's revenues and EPS numbers over the past three quarters have been better than I expected and yet that didn't make the stock rise in a meaningful way, at least, not yet.
The company earned $0.24 per share in 2007, up sharply from 2006:
«For 2007, net income increased 274% to $1.9 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $514 thousand, or $0.07 per diluted share in 2006.»
It's hard to understand why CIMT trades at 10.7 times earnings, while it's growing so fast. And I think 2008 can be even better, considering the Gibbs acquisition.
Investors sold everything, even more so illiquid micro caps ... regardless of the fundamentals.
I'll keep holding CIMT for the long term.
One month later, I received the Bowser Report, remember that?
It has a very superficial analysis of CIMT, it's more of a presentation of the company. The report also talks about 30 or so other companies. The $12 I paid weren't very well spent.
So probably this report wasn't moving the stock at the time.
There aren't any analysts covering the company at Yahoo, but let me check on this new service that I have ... also nothing there.
CIMT's market cap is $24.8 M (already counting with the new shares coming from the Gibbs acquisition). I remain confident that the company will be worth at least $100 M sometime in the future, but I don't know when ...
In the meantime I believe $2.5, or about 10 times earnings, is the floor for this stock.
It would have been easy to take profits in the $4 area if I were using the technimental approach. Just "buy the rumor, sell the news".
But I was obsessed with "investing for the long term".
Anyway, even at technimental I would find CIMT a bargain at current levels. And I'll remain a long term investor in CIMT.
CIMT is starting to execute on its strategy of using GibbsCam's distributors to sell more of CIMT's products:
• Cimatron Appoints GibbsCAM Reseller T-Support as Distributor for Czech Republic and Slovakia (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080407/ukm016.html?.v=99)
PR Newswire (Mon 11:32am)
Someday CIMT will be a $100 M market cap company.
Press release out from CIMT:
• Cimatron Continues Focus on Helping Toolmakers and Manufacturers Shorten Product Delivery Times With CimatronE Version 8.5 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080414/ukm019.html?.v=90)
PR Newswire (Mon 9:57am)
CIMT could boost EPS very significantly if they just stopped investment in R&D, but no, they prefer to spend $1 M a quarter in R&D because they obviously care about the long term sustainability of the business.
bollinger bands getting tight, going up soon imo
cheers from SGP
O.
plus in looking at the weekly stochastics for trend and daily stochastics for timing it looks like the weekly stochastics are at the bottom and could start moving up.
Quote from: Garoh on February 29, 2008, 02:11:40 AM
Quote from: Garoh on February 27, 2008, 01:33:41 PM
Well , must not close below 3.80 otherwise it's gonna be ugly :-\
Below $3 is good for LT buyers
I sold my postion from 4.30 to 3.50 and loking foward to get in again ..
it looks better now and with the first upward sign I'll be onboard :)
Do we have mechanics engineers on the board?
I'm not an expert but seems very impressive :o
http://www.cimatron.com/general.aspx?FolderID=2683&lang=en
I'm not an engineer or CAD designer, but indeed, it looks impressive, thanks for posting notbeln:
CimatronE Version 8.5 - Highlights (http://www.cimatron.com/general.aspx?FolderID=2683&lang=en)
I guess it was harder to positively surprise investors on the 4th quarter, because most people involved with this stock knew that quarter would be strong due to seasonality.
The 1st quarter is the weakest from a seasonal standpoint ... we've had EPS of just $0.02 in Q1 2007. A strong number in this seasonally weak quarter could put the stock back on fire, since it would show the strong results weren't just due to seasonality.
I wonder if Gibbs has a seasonality pattern similar to CIMT.
FYI (from yahoo mb)
http://www.eworksglobal.com/reports_128393067180156250.htm
very positive chart action >:D
BO (= break out ;) ) very soon imho
based on the chart action La Onda has been refering to it would mean Break Out! coming pretty soon. ;)
Buy
http://www.smallcaps.us/
CIMT does look like the quiet before the storm, back on my watch list :)
Anyone heard of MLNX? Another high tech Israeli company I think, big volume coming in recently, inverse H&S, looks like strong fundamentals to me...
QuoteCIMT does look like the quiet before the storm, back on my watch list :)
CIMT's volume has been almost zero, but that's better than going down ;)
Maybe a positive news release off-season (that is, not in the seasonally strong quarter) would have a more pronounced and lasting effect than the latest earnings release, which everybody already knew it was going to be good.
QuoteAnyone heard of MLNX? Another high tech Israeli company I think, big volume coming in recently, inverse H&S, looks like strong fundamentals to me...
No, never. It's a $480 M market cap (therefore, 22 times larger than CIMT). Chart looks good, but pay attention to tax rate issues because they were the responsible for the very strong 4th quarter. Profit margins are fat ... why not starting a thread for it in the Watch List? I could copy/paste a full research report, at least it would help understanding the company better.
GibbsCAM Featured at Mori Seiki Innovation Days
Monday , May 12, 2008 13:32ET
MOORPARK, California, May 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced today that GibbsCAM(R), its CAM software for programming CNC machine tools will be demonstrated at Mori Seiki's upcoming Innovation Days on May 14th - 16th. Innovation Days, which highlights Mori Seiki's latest CNC technology and also celebrates Mori Seiki's 25th Anniversary, is being held at Mori Seiki USA's Chicago Technical Center. Gibbs will demonstrate GibbsCAM's NC programming support of Mori Seiki's conventional and advanced multi-tasking machine tools. Gibbs will also demonstrate the latest GibbsCAM enhancements which fully supports Mori Seiki's innovative spinning tool turning. GibbsCAM support for Mori Seiki's spinning tool operation includes rough and finish turning on any type of lathe part and the ability to control the tool axis in a variety of ways to provide an optimal tool-part cutting condition.
"Gibbs is pleased to participate at Mori Seiki's Innovation Days event and to congratulate them on their 25th anniversary," stated Bill Gibbs, president and CEO of Gibbs and Associates. "We have worked closely with Mori Seiki to ensure that GibbsCAM supports the extensive functionality of their machine tools. Most recently, we have worked with Mori Seiki to support their spinning tool turning capability, a new approach to machining which is ideally suited for multi-tasking machine tools. We look forward to demonstrating GibbsCAM's ease-of-use in programming even the most complex Mori Seiki models."
GibbsCAM offers comprehensive support for Mori Seiki's complete line of machine tools including verification by Mori Seiki for their NT and NMV lines of multi-task machine tools. GibbsCAM's what-you-see-is-what-you-machine post processors allow users to program in confidence with the assurance that posted output is accurate and edit-free.
DBSI to Increase its Holding in Cimatron to 45%
Tuesday May 13, 11:21 am ET
Agreement to Purchase 1,700,000 (Approx. 18%) of the Company's Shares From Koonras Technologies Demonstrates DBSI's Confidence in the Company's Potential and Management
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, May 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that DBSI, one of its two major shareholders, has signed an agreement to purchase 1,700,000 (approximately 18%) of the company's shares from Koonras Technologies Ltd., the other major shareholder of the company, for $2.80 per share. The transaction is subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions and to other customary approvals. Following the transaction, DBSI will hold 4,265,950 (approximately 45%) of the Company's shares and Koonras will hold 860,360 (approximately 9%) of the company's shares.
Yossi Ben Shalom, one of the two managing partners of DBSI, and Cimatron's director, said, "This transaction reflects our confidence in the company and its management, following two years of organic growth and continued improvement in financial results, and the accretive merger transactions with Microsystem and Gibbs, that altogether positioned us well among the top ten global vendors of CAD/CAM software for manufacturing. We believe in the company's growth strategy and its business potential," concluded Mr. Ben Shalom.
Why they (Koonras) sell?
And it's before Q1 report..
And another question - May DBSI buy now? It's only week till Q1 results!
Does it mean Q1 isn't so good? If Q1 is OK , DBSI can't use inside info!
Best,
Vova
it is my understanding that the first quarter is usually the weakest quarter for CIMT, we shall see.
Bought back some CIMT today, let's rock & roll! :)
nice chart action today >:D
CIMT: Gains 45% Controlling Interest with 1.7M Share Purchase from Koonras
Tuesday , May 13, 2008 12:13ET
Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT) announced that DBSI has signed an agreement to purchase 1.7M shares from Koonras Technologies Ltd. for $2.80 per share. Following the transaction, DBSI will hold 4,265,950 (approximately 45%) of the Company's shares and Koonras will hold 860,360 (approximately 9%) of the company's shares.
Update:
The chart is not very easy to analyze, especially if we focus on the usual short term lack of action, but one thing we may point, which is a well design up trend on the 1Y chart.
Today's price action with volume increasing suggests upside continuation, hopefully for another one of these big rallies.
Q1 results will be released next week, and this kind of price action beginning now could be a good sign for the numbers to come:
- Cimatron's Q1/2008 Results Release Scheduled for May 20th (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080513/uktu008.html?.v=101)
Trading Plan:
HOLD CIMT
Regards,
Got back in CIMT near the close today >:D
hopefully this time we go abov e 4/share and stay there. or at least not come back down to the infamous patience island.:)I do have a coment though, it is my understanding that stock prices stay within the bollinger bands 95% of the time. When a stock breaks out above the bollinger bands it only manages to stay above the bollinger bands for about 5% of the ime. having said that, CIMT broke above the bollinger bands yesterday and I am wondering if the bollinger bands are going to start expanding and the price is simply going to ride on the top of the bollinger bands which would be perfect or is the bollinger band not going to expand which would mean that the price acion from yesterday would not be sustainable for long. We would need a couple of more high volume days to confirm a solid uptrend right?any thoughts?
Earnings are coming close, next tuesday before the opening!
I think it will be possible to achieve yr over yr Qtr revenue growth of 100% since 1st Qtr 07 was only 5,3 mil, but to achieve(big) growth over the previous Qtr (4th Qtr 07: 9,9 mil) might be difficult as that is seasonally the strongest Qtr, it depends on what Gibbs has to bring in I guess.
Thoughts?
Why not?
Just my speculation:
Revenues --- CIMT $6.3M + Microsystem $2M + Gibbs $2.7 = $11M
Profit --- 11*0.1= $1.1M
EPS 1.1/9.3=0.12
Not bad if they can achieve it :P
Best,
Vova
I'll take anything what takes us to $4 next week! ;D
Almost 60000 shares traded and the stock barely moves, manipulation or what? >:(
Update:
Q1 results will be out today before the open, followed by a conference call at 9AM:
- Cimatron's Q1/2008 Results Release Scheduled for May 20th (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080513/uktu008.html?.v=101)
From a seasonal viewpoint, Q1 is usually the weakest for CIMT, so any unexpected number should be well assimilated by the market, on the other hand and in absence of public estimates the market should be already discounting a weak quarter.
Market action has been bullish, but with some hesitations, volume was up quite nice in the last few sessions, but still with not much impact on price.
Trading plan:
HOLD CIMT
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues of $10.3 million in Q1 2008 on a non-GAAP Basis
Tuesday May 20, 5:26 am ET
92% Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth on a non-GAAP Basis, 88% Revenue Growth on a GAAP Basis
Non-GAAP Net Income of $235 Thousand, GAAP net Loss of $(298) Thousand
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, May 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced financial results for the first quarter of 2008.
Following the merger and acquisition transactions with Gibbs in early 2008 and with Microsystem in 2007, Cimatron's results in the first quarter of 2008 consolidate Gibbs' financials for the first time and consolidate Microsystem's results for the first time in a first calendar quarter.
In addition, following these transactions, and due to business combination accounting rules that have a significant impact on Cimatron's financial results, Cimatron is, for the first time, also reporting non-GAAP financial data.
Financial Highlights:
Revenues on a GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 increased 88% to $10 million, as compared to $5.3 million in the first quarter of 2007. The increase was attributed both to organic growth and to the consolidation of Microsystem's and Gibbs' results.
Gross Income on a GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 was $8 million as compared to $4.5 million in the same period in 2007. Gross margin in the first quarter was 80%, compared to 84% in Q1 2007. The decrease in gross margin is mainly attributed to business combination accounting rules, and as expected, to Microsystem's lower margins on third party hardware products sales as compared to the margins on Cimatron sales.
Operating Loss on a GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was $(218) thousand, compared to an operating income of $113 thousand in the first quarter of 2007.
Net Loss for the quarter on a GAAP basis was $(298) thousand, or $(0.03) per diluted share, compared to a net income of $181 thousand, or $0.02 per diluted share recorded in the same quarter of 2007.
Revenues on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 increased 92% to $10.3 million, as compared to $5.3 million in the first quarter of 2007.
Gross Income on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 was $8.4 million as compared to $4.5 million in the same period in 2007. Gross margin on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was 82%, compared to 84% in Q1 2007.
Operating Income on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was $277 thousand, as compared to non-GAAP operating income of $123 thousand in the first quarter of 2007.
Net Income on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was $235 thousand, or $0.02 per diluted share, as compared to non-GAAP net income of $191 thousand, or $0.02 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2007.
Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to show year-over- year revenue growth as a result of organic growth and the addition of Microsystem and Gibbs. The Gibbs merger process is well underway, as Cimatron's global distribution network has broadened its offering with GibbsCAM solutions, and currently starting initial GibbsCAM sales.
During the first quarter of 2008 we have kept our business momentum, still, the strong devaluation of the US Dollar against the New Israeli Shekel resulted in a 20% increase in the costs of our Israeli operations in Q1 2008, as compared to Q1 2007. This devaluation effect was only partially offset by the more favorable Dollar to Euro exchange rate.
We are taking cost control measures to counter the weak Dollar effect on our financial results and expect to see the benefits of such measures during 2008."
Reconciliation between results on a GAAP and Non-GAAP basis is provided in a table immediately following the Consolidated Statements of Operation (Non-GAAP basis). Non-GAAP financial measures consist of GAAP financial measures adjusted to include recognition of deferred revenues of acquired companies and to exclude amortization of acquired intangible assets and deferred income tax, as well as certain business combination accounting entries. The purpose of such adjustments is to give an indication of our performance exclusive of non-GAAP charges and other items that are considered by management to be outside our core operating results. Our non-GAAP financial measures are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP measures, and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Our management regularly uses our supplemental non-GAAP financial measures internally to understand, manage and evaluate our business and make operating decisions. We believe that these non- GAAP measures help investors to understand our current and future operating cash flow and performance, especially as our two most recent acquisitions have resulted in amortization and non-cash items that have had a material impact on our GAAP profits. These non-GAAP financial measures may differ materially from the non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies.
Good results imo, knowing that this is traditionally their weakest Qtr.
What a disaster, again! Last time I'll hold a stock through earnings, finished! >:(
Same here, Se7!! I am so disappointed! This big hope we bear every time before the earnings almost never pays off. Better sell and be safe. In case the market shows a positive reaction and shares are still "cheap", one can buy back...
disappointed chart action. let`s wait at what price CIMT will close.
Somebody is also buying as you can see in the 5 min chart:
Q1 chart reaction was very disappointing :-\
David: what`s your comment on Q1??
cheers
O.
Quote from: la-onda on May 20, 2008, 10:34:38 PM
Q1 chart reaction was very disappointing :-\
David: what`s your comment on Q1??
cheers
O.
Hi La-Onda,
David isn't available at this time, since I'm responsible for the Portfolio while he's out, I'll have to make this my call... and it's not an easy call... ouch.... :(
Update:I was completely disappointed like everybody else holding the stock, especially when it was clear to everybody following the stock that Q1 numbers are usually the weakest during the year. In my opinion, Q1 results were neutral, showing some natural costs of acquisitions and seasonable factors, but nothing that was thesis changing or extremely negative (at least that I can understand).
I believe that the GAAP net loss was the reason for the sell off by short term traders probably the ones that have been buying it during the last few sessions and betting on explosive good results. The (trading operational) problem with CIMT is volume, and in selling pressure moments like this, the door is too small for everybody exiting at the same time.
From a technical point of view its difficult to analyze something like this, the last few days were suggesting a launching ramp from the ascending support, this last candle just doesn't fit there (problem with low volume micro caps, things doesn't make sense some times, probably too many times...).
Anyway, I would still believe this could be just an erratic short term move caused by short term traders and lack of liquidity, and that the current opened Gap-down will be filled, bringing CIMT up to near the last days prices.
I would wait to see today's development before taking action (I mean, cutting loses).
Trading Plan:HOLDRegards,
QuoteCimatron Reports Record Revenues of $10.3 million in Q1 2008 on a Part(1 of 2)
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues of $10.3 million in Q1 2008 on a
non-GAAP Basis
92% Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth on a non-GAAP Basis, 88% Revenue Growth
on a GAAP Basis
Non-GAAP Net Income of $235 Thousand, GAAP net Loss of $(298) Thousand
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, May 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited
(NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the
toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced financial results
for the first quarter of 2008.
Following the merger and acquisition transactions with Gibbs in early
2008 and with Microsystem in 2007, Cimatron's results in the first quarter of
2008 consolidate Gibbs' financials for the first time and consolidate
Microsystem's results for the first time in a first calendar quarter.
In addition, following these transactions, and due to business
combination accounting rules that have a significant impact on Cimatron's
financial results, Cimatron is, for the first time, also reporting non-GAAP
financial data.
Financial Highlights:
Revenues on a GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 increased 88% to
$10 million, as compared to $5.3 million in the first quarter of 2007. The
increase was attributed both to organic growth and to the consolidation of
Microsystem's and Gibbs' results.
Gross Income on a GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 was $8 million
as compared to $4.5 million in the same period in 2007. Gross margin in the
first quarter was 80%, compared to 84% in Q1 2007. The decrease in gross
margin is mainly attributed to business combination accounting rules, and as
expected, to Microsystem's lower margins on third party hardware products
sales as compared to the margins on Cimatron sales.
Operating Loss on a GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was $(218)
thousand, compared to an operating income of $113 thousand in the first
quarter of 2007.
Net Loss for the quarter on a GAAP basis was $(298) thousand, or $(0.03)
per diluted share, compared to a net income of $181 thousand, or $0.02 per
diluted share recorded in the same quarter of 2007.
Revenues on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 increased 92%
to $10.3 million, as compared to $5.3 million in the first quarter of 2007.
Gross Income on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2008 was $8.4
million as compared to $4.5 million in the same period in 2007. Gross margin
on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was 82%, compared to 84% in
Q1 2007.
Operating Income on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was
$277 thousand, as compared to non-GAAP operating income of $123 thousand in
the first quarter of 2007.
Net Income on a non-GAAP basis in the first quarter of 2008 was $235
thousand, or $0.02 per diluted share, as compared to non-GAAP net income of
$191 thousand, or $0.02 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2007.
Commenting on the results, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive
Officer of Cimatron, said, "We are pleased to show year-over- year revenue
growth as a result of organic growth and the addition of Microsystem and
Gibbs. The Gibbs merger process is well underway, as Cimatron's global
distribution network has broadened its offering with GibbsCAM solutions, and
currently starting initial GibbsCAM sales.
During the first quarter of 2008 we have kept our business momentum,
still, the strong devaluation of the US Dollar against the New Israeli Shekel
resulted in a 20% increase in the costs of our Israeli operations in Q1 2008,
as compared to Q1 2007. This devaluation effect was only partially offset by
the more favorable Dollar to Euro exchange rate.
We are taking cost control measures to counter the weak Dollar effect on
our financial results and expect to see the benefits of such measures during
2008."
Reconciliation between results on a GAAP and Non-GAAP basis is provided
in a table immediately following the Consolidated Statements of Operation
(Non-GAAP basis). Non-GAAP financial measures consist of GAAP financial
measures adjusted to include recognition of deferred revenues of acquired
companies and to exclude amortization of acquired intangible assets and
deferred income tax, as well as certain business combination accounting
entries. The purpose of such adjustments is to give an indication of our
performance exclusive of non-GAAP charges and other items that are considered
by management to be outside our core operating results. Our non-GAAP
financial measures are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a
substitute for comparable GAAP measures, and should be read in conjunction
with our consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Our management regularly uses our supplemental non-GAAP financial
measures internally to understand, manage and evaluate our business and make
operating decisions. We believe that these non- GAAP measures help investors
to understand our current and future operating cash flow and performance,
especially as our two most recent acquisitions have resulted in amortization
and non-cash items that have had a material impact on our GAAP profits. These
non-GAAP financial measures may differ materially from the non-GAAP financial
measures used by other companies.
Conference Call
Cimatron's management will host a conference call with the investment
community today, May 20th, 2008, at 9:00 EST, 16:00 Israel time.
To participate, please call one of the following teleconferencing
numbers. Please begin placing your call at least 5 minutes before the
conference call commences.
USA: +1-888-668-9141
Israel: 03-9180609
International: +972-3-9180609
For those unable to listen to the live call, a replay of the call will be
available from the day after the call under the investor relations section of
Cimatron's website, at: http://www.cimatron.com
About Cimatron
With over 25 years of experience and more than 40,000 installations
worldwide, Cimatron is a leading provider of integrated, CAD/CAM solutions
for mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts.
Cimatron is committed to providing comprehensive, cost-effective solutions
that streamline manufacturing cycles, enable collaboration with outside
vendors, and ultimately shorten product delivery time.
The Cimatron product line includes the CimatronE and GibbsCAM brands with
solutions for mold design, die design, electrodes design, 2.5 to 5 axes
milling, wire EDM, turn, Mill-turn, rotary milling, multi-task machining, and
tombstone machining. Cimatron's subsidiaries and extensive distribution
network serve and support customers in the automotive, aerospace, medical,
consumer plastics, electronics, and other industries in over 40 countries
worldwide.
Cimatron is publicly traded on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol CIMT.
For more information, please visit the company web site at:
http://www.cimatron.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release includes forward looking statements, within the
meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act Of 1995, which are
subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those anticipated. Such statements may relate to the
company's plans, objectives and expected financial and operating results. The
words "may," "could," "would," "will," "believe," "anticipate," "estimate,"
"expect," "intend," "plan," and similar expressions or variations thereof are
intended to identify forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that
any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future
performance and involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the
company's ability to control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect
forward looking statements include, but are not limited to: currency
fluctuations, global economic and political conditions, marketing demand for
Cimatron products and services, long sales cycle, new product development,
assimilating future acquisitions, maintaining relationships with customers
and partners, and increased competition. For more details about the risks and
uncertainties of the business, refer to the Company's filings with the
Securities and Exchanges Commission. The company cannot assess the impact of
or the extent to which any single factor or risk, or combination of them, may
cause. Cimatron undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any
forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future
events or otherwise.
CIMATRON LIMITED
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(US Dollars in thousands)
Three months ended
March 31,
2008 2007
Total revenue 10,006 5,333
Total cost of revenue 1,994 871
Gross profit 8,012 4,462
Research and development expenses, net 1,757 1,096
Selling, general and administrative expenses 6,473 3,253
Operating income (218) 113
Financial Income (expenses), net. (45) 69
Taxes on Income (41) (2)
Other 6 1
Net income $ (298) $ 181
Net income per share - basic and diluated $ (0.03) $ 0.02
Weighted average number of shares outstanding
Basic EPS (in thousands) 9,357 7,835
Diluted EPS (in thousands) 9,462 7,835
Thomson Financial
All rights reserved. 800.347.7822
Cimatron Reports Record Revenues of $10.3 million in Q1 2008 on a Part(2 of 2)
CIMATRON LIMITED
RECONCILIATION BETWEEN GAAP AND NON-GAAP INFORMATION
(US Dollars in thousands, except for per share data)
Three months ended
March 31,
2008 2007
GAAP Adj. NON-GAAP GAAP Adj. NON-GAAP
Total revenue
(1) 10,006 248 10,254 5,333 - 5,333
Total cost of
revenue (2) 1,994 (147) 1,847 871 - 871
Gross profit 8,012 395 8,407 4,462 - 4,462
Research and
development expenses,
net 1,757 - 1,757 1,096 - 1,096
Selling, general and
administrative expenses
(2) 6,473 (100) 6,373 3,253 (10) 3,243
Operating income (218) 495 277 113 10 123
Financial Income
(expenses), net. (45) - (45) 69 - 69
Taxes on Income (3) (41) 38 (3) (2) - (2)
Other 6 - 6 1 - 1
Net income $(298) $533 $235 $181 $10 $191
Net income per share -
basic and diluated $(0.03) $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Weighted average number
of shares outstanding
Basic EPS (in
thousands) 9,357 9,357 7,835 7,835
Diluted EPS (in
thousands) 9,462 9,462 7,835 7,835
(1) Non-GAAP adjustment related to Gibbs' assumed support contracts that
will not be recognized on a GAAP basis in fiscal 2008 or thereafter
due to business combination accounting rules.
(2) Non-GAAP adjustment to exclude non-cash amortization of acquired
intangible assets.
(3) Non-GAAP adjustment to exclude deferred taxes related to business
combination accounting rules.
CIMATRON LIMITED
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
(US Dollars in thousands, except for per share data)
March 31, December 31,
2008 2007
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS:
Total cash, cash equivalents
and short-term investments $ 5,738 $ 9,026
Trade receivables 11,089 7,308
Other current assets 2,634 1,467
Total current assets 19,461 17,801
Deposits with insurance
companies and severance pay fund 3,019 2,703
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS:
Marketable investments 421 1,158
Net property and equipment 1,530 1,337
Total other assets 14,669 4,328
Total assets $ 39,100 $ 27,327
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Short-term bank credit $ 1,663 $ 791
Trade payables 2,693 2,258
Accrued expenses and other
liabilities 8,934 7,889
Deferred revenues 3,859 742
Total current liabilities 17,149 11,680
LONG-TERM LIABILITIES:
Accrued severance pay 4,320 3,929
Long-term loan 439 403
Other 1,998 282
Total long-term liabilities 6,757 4,614
Minority interest 67 63
Total shareholders' equity 15,127 10,970
Total liabilities and
shareholders' equity $ 39,100 $ 27,327
Contact:
Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer Yael Nevat,
Cimatron Ltd. Commitment-IR.com
Tel.; +972-3-531-2121 Tel: +972-3-611-4466
E-mail: [email protected] +972-50-762-6215
E-mail: [email protected]
SOURCE Cimatron Ltd
-0- 05/20/2008
/CONTACT: Contact: Ilan Erez, Chief Financial Officer, Cimatron Ltd.,
Tel.; +972-3-531-2121, E-mail: [email protected]; Yael Nevat,
Commitment-IR.com, Tel: +972-3-611-4466, +972-50-762-6215, E-mail:
[email protected]/
(CIMT CIMT.OQ)
Thomson Financial
All rights reserved. 800.347.7822
Quote from: pinoleropuro on May 14, 2008, 06:17:27 AM
hopefully this time we go abov e 4/share and stay there. or at least not come back down to the infamous patience island.:)I do have a coment though, it is my understanding that stock prices stay within the bollinger bands 95% of the time. When a stock breaks out above the bollinger bands it only manages to stay above the bollinger bands for about 5% of the ime. having said that, CIMT broke above the bollinger bands yesterday and I am wondering if the bollinger bands are going to start expanding and the price is simply going to ride on the top of the bollinger bands which would be perfect or is the bollinger band not going to expand which would mean that the price acion from yesterday would not be sustainable for long. We would need a couple of more high volume days to confirm a solid uptrend right?any thoughts?
If the Bolinger Band theory is correct than this time the price gap on CIMT puts it below the bollinger bands. The bollinger bands theory works both ways so based on that observation I would think that from an ultra short term point of view it would be perfect time to get in and ride it back up to at least the MA200 and MA50.
The only problem I see again is the low volume and the fact that it looks like the bollinger bands seem to be expanding while the price is at the bottom of the bollinger bands.
Another problem I see is that both the fast stochastics and slow stochastics are pointing down on the daily chart. This makes me want to wait until both stochastics are pointing up and volume picks up a little more.
JMHO
If past performance is any indication,even after good numbers,cimt comes back to earth. Now this. It would'nt surprise me if it drifted slowly down under $2.00. Hope i'm wrong. I sold yesterday,digusted. If it rises from here,it's going without me.Otherwise i'll meet it under $2.00. But then,as always,what do I know.
why isn't david available.... he clearly knows this stock extremely well and it is for times like this that I pay for this service.
Hi Ramsburg,
What happened to David? You said last week that David would be off for 1 week, but he is still not available. Please clarify. Thanks.
Berloga.
BRIEF: CAD/CAM co Cimatron share plunges despite record revenue
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 16:28ET
May 21, 2008 (Globes - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- CAD/CAM solutions provider Cimatron Technologies (Nasdaq: CIMT) yesterday published its financial report for the first quarter of 2008. The results consolidate the financials of acquisitions Gibbs and Microsystem for the first time. The company posted $10 million revenue, up 88 percent from the $5.3 million posted for the corresponding quarter of 2007.
However, the company posted a net loss of $298,000 for the first quarter, compared with a net profit of $181,000 for the corresponding quarter. Non-GAAP net profit was $235,000, compared with $191,000 for the corresponding quarter.
The share fell 18.4 percent yesterday to $2.49, giving a market cap of under $20 million.
Cimatron president and CEO Danny Haran attributed the revenue growth to both organic growth and the acquisition of Microsystem and Gibbs. He added however, that the shekel's appreciation against the dollar increased the cost of the company's Israeli operations by 20 percent compared with the corresponding quarter, which was only partially offset by the more favorable dollar-euro exchange rate. "We are taking cost control measures to counter the weak dollar effect on our financial results and expect to see the benefits of such measures during 2008," added.
What is the difference between GAAP and Non GAAP profit?
regards
oliver
I believe the Non-GAAP profit does not reflect the stock based compensation. If CIMT sold stock to pay its employees cash or options or ESPP, then those are subtracted when GAAP income is calculated. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
GibbsCAM Post Processors for Mori Seiki NMV Line Approved
Tuesday , May 27, 2008 08:07ET
MOORPARK, California, May 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ:CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced today that the set of its GibbsCAM(R) product's post processors that was developed for Mori Seiki's NMV line of machine tools has been validated by Mori Seiki. This collaborative effort between the two companies ensures that GibbsCAM's posted output supports the 5-axis simultaneous capabilities of these machine tools. As competitive pressures grow, the market demand for 5-axis simultaneous machine tools is also growing as they significantly reduce setups and improve overall part quality.
"Accurate post processors are still the Achilles tendons of today's advanced machine tools," explains Bill Gibbs, founder and CEO of Gibbs and Associates. "This is certainly the case when dealing with 5-axis machine tools. Working directly with Mori Seiki DTL, we were able to significantly reduce the time it took to develop the set of post processors for their NMV series."
The Mori Seiki NMV series of machine tools are high-precision, 5-axis control vertical machining centers. Using Mori Seiki's DCG(R) (Driven at the Center of Gravity) technology, vibration is controlled allowing for high precision at high speeds. DCG virtually eliminates vibration ensuring a high quality surface finish, outstanding acceleration performance and improved roundness. DCG along with Mori Seiki's DDM(TM) (Direct Drive Motor), Table-in-Table Construction and ORC(TM) (Octagonal Ram Construction) provide the NMV series with the power and stability required for today's demanding machining applications.
In addition to developing post processors for the Mori Seiki NMV line, Gibbs has also developed accurate machine models of the NMV8000 DCG and NMV5000 DCG for use with GibbsCAM's Machine Simulation capability. Machine Simulation allows program motions to be fully simulated to identify potential programming errors which would result in expensive machine tool crashes on the shop floor.
chart:
1.8$ as day low :-X
Rams, Aussie, please add volume to your trading rules.
I have sold @ 2.2 for a small profit.
Cimatron Announces Share Repurchase Program
Thursday June 5, 3:44 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080605/ukth003.html?.v=17 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080605/ukth003.html?.v=17)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the use of up to $1 million of the Company's available cash to repurchase ordinary shares of the Company. Under the repurchase program, share purchases may be made from time to time at the discretion of management in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions depending on market conditions, share price, trading volume and other factors. Such purchases will be made in accordance with the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The repurchase program has no time limit, does not require Cimatron to acquire a specific number of shares, and may be suspended from time to time or discontinued.
As of June 4, 2008, Cimatron had approximately 9,394,598 ordinary shares outstanding and the closing price for its ordinary shares on The Nasdaq Capital Market as of June 4, 2008 was $2.00.
Commenting on today's announcement, Danny Haran, President and CEO of Cimatron said: "Our board of directors has determined that the repurchase of Cimatron stock represents an effective use of a portion of our cash at this time. The strength of our balance sheet, the confidence we have in our business model and the continued execution of our long-term business strategy support this decision."
Update:Quote from: la-onda on June 03, 2008, 09:05:19 PM
1.8$ as day low :-X
Rams, Aussie, please add volume to your trading rules.
I have sold @ 2.2 for a small profit.
Hi la-onda,
Volume will be considerate for new positions as its part of the new strategy that I and Aussie are planning. Picks like CIMT or CHME have volume issues, this makes them difficult to track using technical analysis and we'll avoid this kind of picks in the future as we need TA to work out our positions.
CIMT was initially a fundamental play, and until now we don't have reasons to doubt the interesting fundamental prospects, but the volume and low visibility of the stock is an issue.
The market sometimes has these inefficiencies, so in this case in particular we are paying the price of it... Let's take it as a lesson and avoid this kind of trouble in the future.
Quote from: Se7en on June 05, 2008, 04:55:02 AM
Cimatron Announces Share Repurchase Program
Thursday June 5, 3:44 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080605/ukth003.html?.v=17 (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080605/ukth003.html?.v=17)
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, June 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT - News), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the use of up to $1 million of the Company's available cash to repurchase ordinary shares of the Company. Under the repurchase program, share purchases may be made from time to time at the discretion of management in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions depending on market conditions, share price, trading volume and other factors. Such purchases will be made in accordance with the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The repurchase program has no time limit, does not require Cimatron to acquire a specific number of shares, and may be suspended from time to time or discontinued.
As of June 4, 2008, Cimatron had approximately 9,394,598 ordinary shares outstanding and the closing price for its ordinary shares on The Nasdaq Capital Market as of June 4, 2008 was $2.00.
Commenting on today's announcement, Danny Haran, President and CEO of Cimatron said: "Our board of directors has determined that the repurchase of Cimatron stock represents an effective use of a portion of our cash at this time. The strength of our balance sheet, the confidence we have in our business model and the continued execution of our long-term business strategy support this decision."
Thanks Se7en (applaud) !
This is good news... the current share price seems to be a no brainer for the company, let's hope they set a new buying mood into the market.
Personally I don't believe CIMT will stay much longer at these levels, and I expect the stock to rebound soon, if not, we'll probably going to drop this position. For now, the trading plan remains:
Trading Plan:HOLD
fyi:
Cimatron to be Fastest Growing CAM Vendor in 2008 - Predicts CIMdata
Monday , June 16, 2008 07:00ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, June 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, was named as one of the fastest growing CAM vendors.
The CAM market ranking was compiled by consulting and research firm CIMdata and published in the recently-released NC Software and Related Services Market Assessment Report.
According to a press release issued by CIMdata, "The rapid growth of Cimatron in 2007 and 2008 is a combination of improved organic growth and the acquisitions of Microsystem in 2007 and Gibbs and Associates in 2008."
CIMdata views Cimatron as "one of the industry leaders in the toolmaking software marketplace." Defining the merger of Gibbs with Cimatron as "a positive move", the CIMdata report goes on to explain: "The companies are very complementary to one another in product, markets pursued, and distribution channels. It brings together the CimatronE integrated CAD/CAM suite focused on toolmaking with GibbsCAM-which is focused on production machining to provide a more complete product portfolio for the manufacturing industry."
"The CIMdata report and ranking reflect the success of our growth strategy," said Danny Haran, Cimatron's President and Chief Executive Officer. "The 2007 results are attributed to our efforts to develop and launch competitive products for broader segments of the toolmaking and manufacturing sectors, as well as to the positive contribution of the Microsystem acquisition. We expect to see additional growth in 2008 based on the success of our product line and the merger with Gibbs and Associates, which enables us to better serve the global market through our joint distribution network."
:-X :-\
CIMT: New 52-Wk Low @ $1.610 dn 15.26%
Monday , June 30, 2008 11:45ET
This is the 1st 52 WEEK LOW alert for CIMT in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ SC: CIMT) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $1.610, down $-0.290 (-15.26%) from its previous close of $1.900.
The Company's previous 52-week low of $1.660 was set 363 days ago on July 03, 2007.
Eleven months ago, the Company's shares closed at $2.100. The price has declined more than 23 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 25,817 shares via 43 trades, 71.15% above it's 20day average of 15,084 shares.
This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:
26.33% below its 20day Moving Average of $2.185
34.73% below its 50day Moving Average of $2.467
40.51% below its 100day Moving Average of $2.706
new 52 weeks low on very low volume....
Any update would be appreciated ;)
Something strange.. Go to Cimatron site
http://www.cimatron.com/Main/download.aspx?FolderID=2744&lang=en
.. and read Q1 conference call Transcript , end of page 5 begining of page 6.
<Danny Haran: What I'm saying is that every additional dollar that we will sell on top of the revenues that we see in Q1, approximately 80 percent will get to the bottom line, give or take.>
Am I understand right - "operating expenses" won't grow anymore? :o :o :o
Best,
Vova
Cimatron Announces the Increase of its Holdings in Microsystem to 100%
Monday , July 14, 2008 07:00ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that its board of directors approved the exercise of Cimatron's previously disclosed second call option to acquire an additional 49% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, for an exercise price of approximately US$1,250,000, and accordingly, to increase Cimatron's holding in Microsystem from 51% to 100%. The exercise price was already included in Cimatron's current liabilities as of December 31, 2007. The acquisition is scheduled to close in the second half of July, 2008.
Commenting on the news, Danny Haran, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cimatron, said, "The increase in our holding in Microsystem to 100% is the final stage of our investment in Microsystem, that was meant to strengthen our leading position in Italy, one of our key markets in West Europe. We have worked closely with Microsystem's management and staff since we acquired 27.5% of its shares in 2005, and we already see the benefits for both companies' customers and employees. We have consolidated Microsystem's results in our financial statements since Q3 2007, when we increased our holding to 51%, hence the increase to 100% is not expected to change the way we are currently reporting this holding in our financial statements."
Chart:
heading up a little bit, volume still very low
Cimatron Completes the Increase of its Holding in Microsystem to 100%
Thursday , July 24, 2008 16:05ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, July 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (Nasdaq: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, today announced that it has completed the exercise of its previously disclosed second call option to acquire an additional 49% of the shares of Microsystem Srl, the company's Italian distributor, and accordingly, to increase its holding in Microsystem from 51% to 100%.
For more information about the transaction, please see Cimatron's press release as of July 14th, 2008, which may also be found under the investors' section on Cimatron's website, as well as Cimatron's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2007, filed with the SEC on June 30, 2008.
good old CIMT.... still with very low volume :-\
Cimatron's German Subsidiary to Sell and Support GibbsCAM Machining Solutions
Thursday , August 21, 2008 04:00ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, August 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced that its German subsidiary is now selling and supporting the GibbsCAM advanced machining software solutions, marketed in Germany under the name of Virtual Gibbs.
The German subsidiary is the latest Cimatron office to offer the GibbsCAM solutions following the companies' merger earlier this year. With offices in Ettlingen, Hamm, Ismaning, Cologne, and Nuremberg, Cimatron GmbH has been serving a strong customer base of thousands of German tool makers and manufacturers for over 10 years.
GibbsCAM solutions provide a broad range of CNC programming capabilities for milling, turning, mill-turn, rotary milling, tombstone-fixtured, wire-EDM, and multi-turret/multi-spindle machining. Modeling functionality tuned specifically for manufacturing supports the creation and manipulation of wireframe, surface, and solid geometries.
Featuring an intuitive user interface, built-in associativity, and simulation capabilities, GibbsCAM empowers manufacturers to increase productivity and elevate responsiveness to customer requirements and design changes.
GibbsCAM supports control and machine tools from leading vendors including GE Fanuc, Infimatic, Siemens, Doosan Infracore, Haas, Index, MAG Fadal, Matsuura, Mazak, Mitsubishi, Mori Seiki, Nakamura Tome, and Tornos.
"Tapping into the resources and knowledge offered by Cimatron GmbH provides a quick and reliable route for expanding the GibbsCAM global distribution network," said Robb Weinstein, Gibbs's and Associates' Senior Vice President of Sales and Strategic Planning. "Cimatron GmbH will be working with the GibbsCAM Resellers already established in the territory to further capitalize on potential synergies."
"The GibbsCAM software will enable us to better respond to the demand for manufacturing solutions in the German market" said Dirk Dombert, Cimatron GmbH's General Manager. "We look forward to offering such a highly reputable solution to complement the rest of the Cimatron product suite."
I think tomorrow will be good day for CIMT ;)
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080827/ukw012.html?.v=101
Update:
Q2 results are out, thanks for the link notbeln. Results were good with excellant revenue growth, but a lowering of income. However this stock has terrible liquidity and is not something we want to hold moving forwards. I don't think its worth delving into the detail too much of the report as the plan is to exit this position as soon as liquidity and momentum allows.
So we need to look at the technicals to plan our exit. I can immediately see $2.50 is a ceiling being the low of the trading range prior to the May gap down and the high area following the gap down. This therefore makes a sensible area to attempt to exit.
The exit plan will be to sell if it trades at or above $2.45
Trade Plan:
Sell if it trades at or above $2.45
Results:
Cimatron Ltd. (CIMT: News ) reported GAAP net income for the second quarter of $0.20 million or $0.02 per share, compared to $0.29 million or $0.04 per share in the prior year quarter.
Net income, on a non- GAAP basis, was $0.74 million or $0.08 per share, compared to $0.30 million or $0.04 per share in year-ago quarter.
Revenues jumped 94% to $10.7 million from $5.5 million in the previous year quarter. Revenues, on a non-GAAP Basis, climbed 99% to $10.9 million from $5.5 million in the prior year quarter.
we are getting closer to our exit point :D
news out, chart is not as bad as all the others...
Cimatron Launches GibbsCAM Machining Software in Israel
Tuesday , September 09, 2008 07:00ET
GIVAT SHMUEL, Israel, September 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for tool making and manufacturing, is now selling and supporting the GibbsCAM advanced machining software solutions in Israel.
Cimatron is well established in the Israeli market, serving hundreds of tool makers and manufacturers in a variety of industries ranging from aerospace and defense to electronics and medical equipment.
"Israeli manufacturers are looking for ways to better automate and optimize their processes, resulting in strong demand for advanced manufacturing solutions," said Amir Lapid, Manager of Cimatron's Israeli Operations. "We have been serving this market for over two decades with the Cimatron range of products and GibbsCAM is a vital addition to our offering, enabling us to provide the full spectrum of CAM programming capabilities demanded by our customers. Many customers have already embraced the GibbsCAM solution since it has been made available here."
GibbsCAM solutions provide a broad range of CNC programming capabilities for milling, turning, mill-turn, rotary milling, tombstone-fixtured, wire-EDM, high speed machining, and multi-turret/multi-spindle machining. Modeling functionality tuned specifically for manufacturing supports the creation and manipulation of wireframe, surface, and solid geometries.
Featuring an intuitive user interface, built-in associativity, and simulation capabilities, GibbsCAM empowers manufacturers to increase productivity and elevate responsiveness to customer requirements and design changes.
GibbsCAM supports controllers and machine tools from leading vendors including GE Fanuc, Infimatic, Siemens, Doosan Infracore, Haas, Index, MAG Fadal, Matsuura, Mazak, Mitsubishi, Mori Seiki, Nakamura Tome, and Tornos.
"The Israeli manufacturing sector is recognized worldwide for its sophistication and technological advancements," said Ira Bareket, Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Cimatron Ltd. "GibbsCAM is a perfect solution for the industry's needs and we are extremely pleased with the overwhelming response we have had since launching the product."
any official 3SoF comment ???
CIMT: New 52-Wk Low @ $0.700 dn 30%
Tuesday , October 28, 2008 11:06ET
This is the 1st 52 WEEK LOW alert for CIMT in the past 7 calendar days.
The share price for Cimatron Limited (NASDAQ SC: CIMT) reached a new 52-week low today, trading at $0.700, down $-0.300 (-30.00%) from its previous close of $1.000.
The Company's previous 52-week low of $0.870 was set 18 days ago on October 10, 2008.
One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $3.060. The price has declined more than 77 percent since then.
At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 27,190 shares via 53 trades, 61.79% above it's 20day average of 16,805 shares.
This new 52-week low currently puts the stock:
41.72% below its 20day Moving Average of $1.201
58.50% below its 50day Moving Average of $1.687
61.85% below its 100day Moving Average of $1.835
&
GibbsCAM 2009 Shipping to Customers
Tuesday , October 28, 2008 11:00ET
MOORPARK, California, October 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cimatron limited (NASDAQ: CIMT), a leading provider of integrated CAD/CAM solutions for the toolmaking and manufacturing industries, announced today that Gibbs and Associates, its developer of GibbsCAM(R) software for programming CNC machine tools has started shipping the GibbsCAM 2009 to customers. Initial feedback from customers who have already received the software are very positive.
"This is one of our most significant releases, with new features and many enhancements for the entire GibbsCAM product line," explains Bill Gibbs, founder and president of Gibbs and Associates. "We continually recognize that ease-of-use is of paramount importance to programmers and machinists," he adds. "This release further decreases programming effort for all machine-tool configurations, and provides additional tools for our customers to easily achieve incremental gains in productivity."
more: http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.af53f9439fbc1d2c512eb271e463d69c93ace4211da52534cff149108b88f98f
chart:
One of the 4 stocks presently active in this portfolio.
Updated chart look...
52wk Range: 0.56 - 3.06
Volume: 7,000
Avg Vol (3m): 4,693.55
Market Cap: 8.25M
P/E (ttm): 11.56
EPS (ttm): 0.08
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)
Technicals
Close Above the 50-day MA
MACD - Bullish
Last Price Quote is:
5.80%above 13-day MA
3.37%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 13
Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on May 19
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $8.11
P/E Ratio: 11.09
PEG Ratio: N/A
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A
Sold @ $0.90 mp
Reason: this stock doesn't fit the current portfolio strategy.