3SOF

Hi David,

Do I understand you have a stop at $ 13,82? Because you say set to close below $ 13,82.

Don't want to start an old discussion  (think it was last year or so), just want to be sure. Lost some serious money the last couple getting out too late 

Thanks,
Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on June 04, 2007, 09:25:18 AM
Hi David,

Do I understand you have a stop at $ 13,82? Because you say set to close below $ 13,82.

Don't want to start an old discussion  (think it was last year or so), just want to be sure. Lost some serious money the last couple getting out too late 

Thanks,
Amarens

Hi Amarens, I don't place automatic stops in the market. I also don't like to be stopped out because of intraday market action, because many times, stocks break supports only over the intraday but then claw back up to close above the support level, which is a bullish behavior. But I guess we won't have to worry about that, since I expect VPHM to start trending higher over the short term and break the short term descending trendline, today standing at $14.93, on the upside.

The trading plan is:

HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is about to close below the $13.82 support. If that's the case, sell just before the close.

Thanks, that's what I remebered and thought, just wanted to make sure b/c you spoke of a stop in you last update.

Will you still come back to the analyzing for the release dates? I'm still up for it.

Will hear,
Amarens

QuoteThanks, that's what I remebered and thought, just wanted to make sure b/c you spoke of a stop in you last update.

Do you receive the daily newsletter, through your e-mail and private message, with the specific instructions for all holdings of the Main Portfolio?

QuoteWill you still come back to the analyzing for the release dates? I'm still up for it.

Will hear,
Amarens

Yes, I've suggested the 100 smallest stocks in the Russel 2000 index (in terms of market cap) for the study at the CIMT thread, what do you think? (but I'm not sure this data is readily available, will have to look for it).

Hi,
all technical indicators are heading up again; EMA200 is our strong support!

Now the best news (quotation):

The Agency will issue a notice in the Federal Register (FR) announcing the availability on the FDA Web site of new product-specific draft and final BE recommendations. The notice will identify a comment period for the recommendations.

· Comments on product-specific BE recommendations will be considered in developing final BE recommendations.
· The BE recommendations will be revised as appropriate to ensure that the most up-to-date BE information is available to the public.

What this means to me is that since Vancocin was not on the original BE list, will go through the new procdures listed above. Therefore we will have plently of time and warning to see the new FDA guidance for Vancocin, and there will be a public comment session, so again we will have plenty of warning. Best of all, this indicates that FDA wants an open review of the issues, and essentially suggests that the original Vancocin approach was wrong and willl be revisited.

please check the attachment

cheers
Oliver

QuoteWhat this means to me is that since Vancocin was not on the original BE list, will go through the new procdures listed above. Therefore we will have plently of time and warning to see the new FDA guidance for Vancocin, and there will be a public comment session, so again we will have plenty of warning. Best of all, this indicates that FDA wants an open review of the issues, and essentially suggests that the original Vancocin approach was wrong and willl be revisited.

Thanks for the valuable information la-onda

Vancocin isn't on the list:



Technically the stock just needs to close above $14.86 (2 cents higher), for me to be less concerned and take out the stop on close. For now the trading plan remains: HOLD VPHM, unless it is set to close below $13.82.

QuoteTechnically the stock just needs to close above $14.86 (2 cents higher), for me to be less concerned and take out the stop on close.

It didn't close 2 cents higher, but 3 cents lower, so VPHM is still stuck between the medium term ascending trendline (today at $14.66) and the short term descending trendline (today at $14.77).

So, if VPHM closes 1% up or down, it will provide a significant technical signal. But I've learned not to be this "small", this "objective", when at reading charts. My trading plans need to be wide, in order for me not to consider "short term noise" in my decision making process.

So, the recommended traded plan continues to be: HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82.

VPHM failed to make a bullish breakout above the short term descending trendline. If it weren't for the information la-onda kindly brought, saying for example that VPHM's pipeline alone is worth $12 - $13 a share and that perhaps the FDA will review the process for bioequivalence for a Vancocin generic, I guess I would just take the loss and forget about biotech stocks for ever and ever.

But this way I'm willing to give VPHM a chance and sell it only if it breaks down below $13.82, on close, that would be disgusting and I would just bail out.

David,
there will be 2 conferences coming on the 12th and 14th of June!
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-presentations

I will hold until this 2 conferences are done 

ugly chart but should be the bottom imho

Quote from: la-onda on June 07, 2007, 08:43:16 PM
David,
there will be 2 conferences coming on the 12th and 14th of June!
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=92320&p=irol-presentations

I will hold until this 2 conferences are done 

ugly chart but should be the bottom imho

Thanks for your opinion la-onda. VPHM has been giving several conferences, but they always say more or less the same thing and are failing to attract investor's interest. Something is moving the stock downward, perhaps there are companies working towards a Vancocin generic? Or the FDA will leave the bioequivalence as it is?

I don't know what it is, but I'm afraid I'm going to take a 15% plus loss on VPHM, if the stock is set to close below $13.82. That's my trading plan. Good luck la-onda

looks like VPHM wants to go to $13.00 stock heavily shorted 7% of the float, they will keep it down, till there is a reason to cover. No news.

QuoteI don't know what it is, but I'm afraid I'm going to take a 15% plus loss on VPHM, if the stock is set to close below $13.82.

VPHM is closing above $13.82. I'll keep it.

It's hard to believe VPHM came down to touch its support at $13.82 (again), since the company's fundamentals seem so attractive. There are two possibilities:

1) The last 30 days fall was just short term technical noise. There's no strong catalyst to move it up a lot, so the stock fluctuates back and forth.
2) The market or someone powerful knows something that we don't, something negative, and is heavily selling the stock short.

VPHM's candle on Friday signals a bullish reversal. Let's see if that happens. If not, if the stock goes down some more, I'll have to cut my losses and forget biotechs for good.

The trading plan remains:

HOLD VPHM, unless the stock is set to close below $13.82. If that happens, sell before the close.

I don't want to think too much about VPHM in this phase, I want to be a robot executing orders. The order is: If VPHM is set to close below $13.82, SELL. Otherwise, HOLD.

I guess VPHM is also out from the portfolio, this is a good short here.