3SOF

Mike, yahoo shows this

Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 24.85
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06)¹: 31.00

for VPHM 

Thanks Stocky. You are right that the PE (ttm) in Yahoo is 24.85. I was using Yahoo's portfolio manager, which showed PE 20.82. Wondering what the difference is!

I have used Piper Jaffray's EPS figure for 2006. Yahoo's figures are outdated.

Here is an updated list:

CELG:    PE ttm:   89    PE 06:   49
DNA:      PE ttm: 107    PE 06:   53
CHIR:     PE ttm: 225    PE 06:   20
IMCL:     PE ttm:   36    PE 06:   19
VPHM:    PE ttm:   25    PE 06:   17

Sorry for the mistake  The conclusion however seems to be the same.

I've owned this since $3.50 . Some things to look at , 78% institutional ownership, insider buying, and products being developed. Just a speculation but I think there is more to this stock than meets the eye. If any good  news on other products comes out this could go over $50. Was at a hundred at one time, not sure why it dropped? My opinion is go long on this one. Cure for HIV, Hepititis, Common cold,..speculation. Institutions and insiders are saying there is a chance. Charts are saying yes.

I have no argument with any holder or the concept of value above.

Here are my other personal reasons for stepping back and  I could be wrong.

The earnings for the second quarter being forecast were actually lower than previously thought...as was the adjusted earnings forecast for the year.

Vancocin is a one trick pony with no patents and just "trade secrests". It is just a matter of time for competition at the high price of Vancocin. One piece of news on this and that is all she wrote.

The drug for colds" will   be very expensive...and  market penetration may not be as suggested by the hype. There have been other upper respiratory inhalers for the common cold that have flopped.

There is a lot of competition for a Hep C drug.

Shorts are at very high level...if they are wrong this flys a great deal...but sometimes they are right.

The Yahoo  board sentiment is over ebbulent and talk of $100 by the end of the year.

I admit I am not good at picking exits.

JVC

David,
whats your decision if VPHM is filling the GAP @ 12.32$ ?
Holding for analyst price target?

Upgrade has 15 $ as new price target now:
YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of ViroPharma gained 15.7% to %$11.42 in afternoon action on Monday after Piper Jaffray lifted its 12-month price target on the stock to $15 from $7. The firm, which has an outperform rating on the stock, also lifted its estimates for sales of Vancocin, the company's colitis treatment, to $29.3 million in the second quarter and $102.3 million for 2005. The previous estimates were $24 million and $79.7 million, respectively. Piper now sees earnings of 15 cents a share in the second quarter, up from its prior projection for a profit of 5 cents a share.

Thanks in advance for your feedback

I finally got to VPHM, the kind that I want 

I'm selling this stock today at the closing of that enormous gap on the long term chart, the magic $12.32 number !

The stock yesterday shot up 19% due to this: ViroPharma gets lift from positive Piper Jaffray note

I guess there's too much people involved now and the stock is very overbought in the short term (it was already overbought when I bought   ).

This doesn't mean, at all, the stock will go down, but I had a plan to buy and hold until this gap was closed, so I'll take profits today if I have the chance. If it doesn't go to $12.32 I'll hold, no problem, we're so close now that there's very little chance the gap remains open.

Probably I'll buy back again later, with another trading plan ...

Hi JVC,

I like your well-researched opinion about Viropharma. It is very rare to see somebody that are not in the stock doing such a thorough due diligence.

When that is said I think you are wrong.

It is correct that Vancocin is an old drug (20 years) but nobody has still been able to produce a generic version and there is no application for a generic version with FDA. You are right that a generic version could be launched but for now this is just speculations with mo substance.

The lower guidance for Q2 is not a result of lower sales or profit margin (on the contrary the Revenue is revised up). The revision is due to the forced conversion of the bonds. VRPM has to pay all the interest for the whole duration of the converted bonds in the quarter they are converted. I as well as the marked see the conversion as very positive for VRPM but it obviously hurts earnings in the quarter it happens.

It is the first time I have heard that Pleconaril should be very expensive (Do you have a link for that information) but at least Shering-Plough has been willing to pay $65 mill. in milestone payments for the rights for US alone so I assume they at least think there is a market for this drug. (so does all other analysts I have seen.)

You are right that the competition on Hepatitis C is fierce but the potential is huge and you will see a significant increase in PPS if they will be successful.

Concerning the short interest I don't see such a huge interest (3.2 million shares). In fact the days to cover is 1.49, which really is nothing. All these shorts are heavily under water so I rather see them as a support for the uptrend.

Finally I think you are a bit one-sided. It seems you have forgot that the sales of Vancocin is increasing very rapidly (100% year-on-year) as the infection with C. Difficile becomes epedimic. That insiders recently has bought 75.000 shares in the open market. I could continue (haven't even talked about Maribavir) but I think the long case is already presented in this thread.

Good luck. I guess we will see who is right in the coming days!

Mike

Mike,

I am still holding some in profit VPHM stock and am impassioned.

All  I can say is I am a retired Physician and I have seen products in the URI inhaler field before and they failed. They ARE very expensive...and how many people will pay a premium to resolve a self limiting illness....just a little quicker than an inexpensive zinc gluconate which is proven to decrease the time. I do not have time for a treatise.

If you do not think that Vancocin is on the radar of some wannabe company, then you may be kidding yourself. I personally know of several other alternative treatments for C Difficlle that are less expensive. It is not the first line treatment. Just check the PDR and other sources. It is only supposed to be used after first time failures. The reason is that there isa high occurrence of kidney disorders. It is sub standard care to prescribe it as first choice. Have you ever seen the face of an elderly person who had to go and pay $200 for a Vancocin Rx?

"If" successful is the key word. All the companies with Hep C drugs think they will be successful.

Shorts sometimes do get it right...at some price.

The earnings had a good reason to have a down estimate for the quarter...but I was disappointed and the Yahoo site is not correct withe forecast from Piper...briefing.com got it right. Many just read the Yahoo extract of the report.

My view is unbiased and I know there are opposing points of view. Personally some profit off the table is OK with me. I am 25 % in cash...so that is a factor in my opinions and that is all they are.

It is a sentiment thing too. The people on the VPHM board are talking $100 by the end of the year and the shorts are talking $9. I do not know. I made a profit, have some for long term and want to have a realistic point of view.

All the best to those of you fully loaded. You deserve to get rich on VPHM for havingthe guts to stay with it all the way. To me this concept of never selling a running stock defies reason. For every one that keeps on running there are many more which have set backs.

That is it for me on this one. All the best.

JVC

sold 1/3 @ 12.1,
2/3 for the long run

i was skimming thru yahoo msg board, (i know i know, but we can take it as discretionary reference  ), and saw this well thought post , thought i should share with my fellows :

Price Target
by: dosjots
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy  07/19/05 11:53 am
Msg: 38219 of 38235

Many comments on price targets so I thought I'd offer some thoughts for consideration. I look at VPHM as both a value and growth play. In terms of value, with earnings now turned around, the earnings consensus seems to be approximately $1.00. Sure, some are higher, some are lower but this is what I use as a fair and reasonably conservative estimate. And based on Piper's release yesterday, they expect sales to rise 28% in 2006 and earnings to rise 42%. Not that I agree with their actual numbers, it's their growth rates that could be used to very conservatively estimate a 30% rise in earnings to $1.30 for 2006. Then using a conservative P/E ratio of 20 – 25, price should be $20 - $25 in 2005 and $27 - $33 in 2006. Now this is the very conservative projection based solely on the earnings driven by Vancocin. I consider the targets as minimums with very high probabilities. From there, I then attempt to put on my growth hat look for opportunities above and beyond. And the great news is that there is not there is a single story out there but rather a number of stories that even if one or two hit can propel VPHM above the targets I mentioned. Since I do not have the ability (or patience) to fully asses these opportunities, their probabilities, and potential price targets, I instead keep it simple and view that there is a high probability that a few will materialize over next 3 – 6 months and drive the price north to varying degrees. My thought on minimum price is approximately $35 - $40 range with upside well beyond. Of course each of these events will have different effects on price. Remember, we just need a couple to materialize. Here are the near-term catalysts that I see:

1) Vancocin - stronger sales as C. difficile outbreaks continues and/or accelerates

2) Maribavir – In Phase II since Q3 2004. As Kamoa points out, it may be an excellent candidate for FDA fasttrack. Drug updates can provide catalyst.

3) HCV-796 – Although only in Phase 1b clinicals, another drug in pipeline with 80% of R&D funded by Wyeth, VPHM's partner. Drug updates can provide catalyst

4)Pleconaril – Schering-Plough now driving development with update of results expected in Q4 2005. Obviously market is HUGE and can cause MUCH momentum for VPHM. Schering has excellent development capabilities and muscle. This was a very smart partnership.

5) With stock now in $11-$12 range, will be on the radar of more institutional money and it should start to be visible in IBD. Often, funds will look to smaller, quick moving companies to add a little 'juice' to their performance since they are often in larger, slower moving companies.

6) Given poor Q2 and Q3 earnings & sales figures from last year, the Q2 & Q3 2005 numbers will blow them away. Dramatic % increases such as that draws positive attention and will help to raise the IBD profitability and overall composite rating. Again, smart money pays attention to this.

7) Additional $65 million in payments from Schering if certain milestones are met – If Q4 update is positive, would not be surprised to see another payment in 2005. Even $10 million could add $.17 - $.18 per share. These payments would take a big bite out of remaining debt.

Market behavior – money seems to be going back into market and stocks have been doing well. In particular, biotec has been leading. If this proves to be a bull market, P/Es of growth companies generally expand 70% - 130%. So the previous targets of $20 - $25 could be $42 - $56 in a bull market favoring biotec.

9) Additional analyst coverage announcements and new targets (earnings and price) being released. I believe that one reason that Piper was conservative yesterday was because this gives them the opportunity to release several more positive revisions to keep momentum moving. I would do the same.

I'm sure I've missed some catalysts but again, I'm trying to keep it simple. For my investing style, this is a no-brainer and I see no better opportunity in the market. Since I'm so bullish, I've also allocated 50% of my VPHM position to options to get a little more juice out of the return. As always, could be wrong though am putting my dollars behind my view. Good luck all.



there are some very good points , what ya think?
good trading!

Just for fun, I did some checking around about Vancocin....and not even the other options.

3 M Pharmaceuticals manufactures it in Canada...at least that is what the Pharmacy supplier told me...of course I will check it out...so it is not gospel

There is no such thing as a lock on a drug off patent. US citizens can buy Vancocin directly from a pharmacy in Canada.

If this starts hitting the higher volumes, I may even come up with the money to get an IND to sell it in the US.

BTW, it is sold in Canada now as manufactured by 3 M Pharmaceuticals in Canada...and yes that is a division of the BIG MMM.

Now I doubt very much that VPHM is supplying 3 M Pharmaceuticals...but who knows...I will check that out too.

So it will run and I still have my VPHM, but if I can, I will form the Pharmaceutical Division of my company Cappelos, Inc. and compete with them.

I know Ha Ha.

John

Anyone interested in contacting me may do so at [email protected] or through this forum.

Quote from: JVC689 on July 08, 2005, 01:10:34 PM
My position is at $6.55 for 3000 shares. It is useless to try and weave back in and out of this stock. There are now options available.

VPHM can go to $12 easily by the end of the year and perhaps $25 next year if Vancocin continues to be cash cow. If the cold viral product hits, VPHM is a moon shot.

I wish I could find a few other stocks with the fundies and techies oof VPHM.

All the best.

John

Dear John,

I am just wondering what have made you change your mind so fundamentally. I have seen this on other boards. Normally when people regret that they have sold too early, but I am sure that is not the case here.

Anyhow I wish you the best of luck with your adventure in the pharmaceutical industry. I guess your profit from VPHM will come in handy.

I would appreciate if you could post links to document the alleged production of Vancocin in Canada. Until then I will disregard it.

Mike

Mike,

I have absolutel no sellers remorse....I have free stock...what more can I ask.

But get real, why would I want to share my DD sources on what I found? I did a lot of work and may get into this business, so why would I want more competition. I am being as straight up as I can be.

If I fail in my endeavor, all I lost was time.

But the fact is it can be gotten in Canada from another supplier as far as i can tell from talking with the Pharmacy.

And why would I lie about it? Why would they lie about it?  But the real question is....WAS IT IN THE PROSPECTUS OR FILING STATEMENTS?....I did not take the time to look.

I have spoken with the Pharmacy and with 3 M Pharmaceuticals and I would doubt if VPHM really cares about this yet....but I do care.

Bottom line, I like the VPHM story, but there were always 2 nagging questions I had.

1. Why would Lilly dump this.....yes I know all the conventional reasons...but...

2. A product off patent and only covered by "trade secrets"...yo! Like some can not be hired.

My background in Organic Chemistry, MBA in Finance,  Medical Degree, years working in industry and over 20 years in patient care was screaming at me to dig more.

I am not trying to scare ANYONE. The sky is not falling in on VPHM...they just gave me a potentially great opportunity if I can get all of the pieces together.

At one point I almost was considering violating my allocation rules to get more VPHM in the $6s, but those questions kept me back. There is always a reason for everything, though we may not know it at the time. If nothing else, it is a great learning experience. As with all DD, there is always someone who will dig deeper and likely even deeper than I.

I am a truth seeker. When one is totally committed to a stock, objectivity is sometimes lost.

All the best.

John

Dear John,

I think you misunderstood me. I do certainly not think you are lying. I just can't base my investments on some loose allegations on a message board. For the time being I am confident in my investment in VPHM based on the documented facts.

I don't want you to release information that is not available for the investing community but I thought it was public information as you mentioned the name of the company.

I can only encourage other readers of this thread to investigate this alleged production of Vancocin in Canada very diligent.

Mike

Dear Mike,

Perhaps I did misunderstand you. As i said, it likely will have little impact on VPHM now. But with repeat infections and the cost going up because of opportunistic pricing, one does not need a crystal ball to see that there will eventually be competition from someone and/or follow up prescriptions will be filled in Canada..

Just do a search. You know the old saying "seek and you shall find". At the Yahoo message Board, "there are none so blind that will not see". They think I am short. Anyone short VPHM must either really know what he or she is doing or be crazed.

This is my last VPHM post since my holdings are lighter.

Sincerely,

John

I am checking out WLDA and if the NAA aquisition numbers are good after the late filing, I will take a large position.