3SOF

Quote from: Leaira on November 20, 2007, 07:56:34 AM
Well, no, FSLR won't be a 10-bagger, but it doesn't need to be.  Let's say you manage to trade credit spreads on FSLR every month, bringing in a 30% return.  To get a 30% return on a 5-point spread, that would require taking $1.20 credit on the trade.

Let's compound that for a year, by trading more contracts each month.  1.3 ^ 12 = 23.3, or a 2,230% return for a year.  That's like getting a 23-bagger in a year's time!  How long do you think it will take ASTI to increase 23 times its value, or even 10 times, from now?

Cool, so if you can just do this 23.3 bagger trading for 5 years, and say you start with just 15,000 dollars, you will be richer than Bill Gates and Warren Buffet combined, having about 100 billion dollars at your disposal as a result.  Sounds sustainable to me, wonder why more people arent doing it though?   

PS. Keep it up for 7 years and you will basically own all people and everything on the earth!  Just remember us little folk here at 3SOF   

Even though I disagree with the market (what a strange thing to say), I understand why ASTI is going down sharply. The company doesn't have any relevant revenues and it is losing between $1 M and $2 M a quarter.

But it has the following positive aspects:

1) It has a superior thin film photovoltaic technology;

2) It has Statoil Hydro (STO - $102 B market cap) as a major partner and investor - probably soon to be a 35% owner;

3) After all the warrants are converted (probably they already were), it will have roughly $137 M in cash, or about $6.85 cash per share and no debt;

4) The market cap without the cash (and after the warrants B conversion) is just $132 M. So one is paying $132 M for the technology and the agreement ASTI has with StatoilHydro to commercialize ASTI's products starting in 2008 on a small scale and in a big scale in early 2010.

5) Bigger companies in the sector, like FSLR ($16.4 B), SPWR ($8.9 B) and STP ($10.3 B), for example, don't do more than what ASTI promises to do in a couple of years. And ASTI has the technology, the cash and the partner to do it. So, why not? If ASTI gets as big as $10 B in the future, that will mean 37 bags of return on your investment.

It sure is worth the risk ... I think it is possible for ASTI to go down to $11 but I don't think it can stay below that level for long.

I'll continue focused on ASTI's long term prospects and will keep holding.

Everything with "Sun" on its name rose sharply yesterday, but ASTI rose more than other stocks in the group, perhaps just because it also had a bigger top to bottom drawdown (-46%).

Another issue that makes me believe ASTI has the potential to be a 30 bagger is the following, taken out of the latest 10-Q form filed with the SEC:

«Navigant Consulting reports indicate that over 98% of the solar industry consists of companies making commodities of either silicon cells or large rigid, heavy glass based modules of a fixed size and power rating. These commodity modules are typically mounted to rooftops by system integrators to ultimately produce electricity. In this type of market, cost becomes one of the few competitive discriminators. We believe that our thin film CIGS technology applied to roll-to-roll manufacturing on flexible plastic substrates will allow us to achieve our goal to become a low cost market leader. By capitalizing on our light weight features that should reduce balance of systems costs and allow for streamlined installations, a lower total systems costs should be achievable and enable us to compete effectively in these commodity markets. Although we currently plan to offer a series of modules for the commodity markets, our principal strategy is to leverage the unique performance characteristics of our products into markets like building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) that significantly narrow the competitive playing field and offer the potential for higher value-added returns. The competitive playing field is significantly impacted by principal market drivers in the various sectors, and achieving a sustainable competitive advantage is important for sustaining growth. In particular, there are some market sectors like BIPV where flexible PV is a market enabler and rigid modules cannot compete. Very few companies offer flexible PV products in the marketplace today. BIPV is the integration of photovoltaic materials directly into already existing building materials and structures. The BIPV advantage is in adding significant value to the embedded cost in a structure that already exists and already serves a functional purpose like that of a roofing membrane, metal roof, tiles, facades, shading devices, awnings, etc.

A principal focus will be on establishing Ascent Solar as an industry leader in the BIPV market and to grow with this market over time. Our goal is also to establish Ascent Solar as the low cost manufacturer with the highest quality and best performing products in our target markets. Other markets of interest include portable power, electronic integrated PV (EIPV), space and near-space where our flexible platform enjoys distinct competitive advantages and also significantly limits the numbers of viable competitors.»

We see that ASTI doesn't plan to be just a niche player, it will fight for its share of the large "commodity photovoltaic markets". This insures me that if everything goes right, ASTI will indeed be a $10 B plus market cap company, joining other giants in the sector, because it has competitive advantages.

I'll keep holding ASTI for the long term.

I think Solars and alternates are rising for 6 more reasons beside some plain old momentum and some speculation.

1. At some point, and I think that time is already here, environmental concerns and costs will be so important that fossil fuels will be looked as a lower option even if they are cheaper then the clean fuel.

2. US may have a clean fuel friendly govt/policies in place by end of 2008.

3. Oil even if it climbs down to 70s would be still high enough to give alt. fighting chance.

4. The pie is really big. Many solars even some with a very limited history are showing phenomenal growth and real numbers.

5. Big companies are taking interest in this sector. I think they will increasingly play Pacman and ASTI will never be a ten bagger, most probably will be bought at nice premium by the likes of Hydro which itself was Pacmaned by Statoil a much bigger energy play. Google is showing enormous interest in the area by actually investing in the alt. sector. I know a company here in Pasadena which got investment from Google and they are scrambling for Engineers. Unfortunately they are private and 'well funded'. Anyway the point is when the likes of Google jumps in for either philanthropic or whatever reasons it gives some very good press.

6. And a very important factor: GRID PARITY. Whenever and wherever that happens that kicks out tradional and kicks in alt. energy sector in. The reason chinese like STP are so hot b/c they due to their lower cost structure may soon achieve that golden goal, when the cost to produce electricity from alt. would be equal or less then the cost from tarditional resources.

But to balance out this enthusiasm whenever their is such a opportunity a lot of greed and deception creeps in. So temper your buyings and dont ever bet your farm or even if Google says that they have decided to change their name to Google Solar.

I have put up a dream team on my blog,

funnytrader.blogspot.com

Checkout if you are interested. Note this is just for the year end rally. More longer term the main 3SoF is better poised.

I am keeping eye on Google tip toeing in Alt. Energy sector. If you go through new Jobs at Google you will see that they are actually hiring in the sector, not just investing in handful of privately held startups. Idea of Google getting so much serious means you should get seroious too.

I am not sure how the market will react to the US Energy Bill press murmers but if positive, watch Monday closing in the sector, you should be on board, especially ASTI which has  potential to be a multi bagger sooner then anyone of us in 3SoF community thinks. For sure I wont like it to be bought out by some growth hungry company. Akin to EMC - VMware would be ok.

"...ASTI has the potential to be a 30 bagger..."

That's what I like to hear.  I bought ASTI today.  Thanks for the tip David.

ASTI...looking good here.  Had nice buying into today's close.

Only 8 days left for Hydro's deadline to purchase 1.4 million more shares of ASTI.

I think we may break the weak $18.20 resistance level in the next couple of days.

More Solar power

Nice, ksl.  These solar stocks are unbelievable!

I'm not going to complain about making money fast, but I really wish they would've done this in a slower more methodical manner.  I picture SOLF at $30+, but I don't feel comfortable holding such a huge momo stock.  I suppose now that I have taken almost half my SOLF off the table, I can feel a bit more at ease. 

I am not up on ASTI, I need to do some research.  I was under the impression they have no real earnings coming..just technology?  I don't like to get involved with issues like that, as I have no idea about Solar technology and I never will.  Obviously, though, I hope it goes to the moon for my fellow 3SOFer...



ksl-do you get the feeling there is some sort of major correction coming?  The big names are not taking part in this rally..STP, FSLR, SPWR, etc.  I suppose these stocks need to catch up in valuation.  But something feels fishy, this is all a bit fast for me. 

and btw, this ASTI chart is a thing of beauty.  Coil after coil.  Barring major meltdown, I can see CSIQ and ASTI making SOLF-like parabolic moves..

Quote from: bjc on December 04, 2007, 06:43:45 PM
Nice, ksl.  These solar stocks are unbelievable!

I'm not going to complain about making money fast, but I really wish they would've done this in a slower more methodical manner.  I picture SOLF at $30+, but I don't feel comfortable holding such a huge momo stock.  I suppose now that I have taken almost half my SOLF off the table, I can feel a bit more at ease. 

I am not up on ASTI, I need to do some research.  I was under the impression they have no real earnings coming..just technology?  I don't like to get involved with issues like that, as I have no idea about Solar technology and I never will.  Obviously, though, I hope it goes to the moon for my fellow 3SOFer...



ksl-do you get the feeling there is some sort of major correction coming?  The big names are not taking part in this rally..STP, FSLR, SPWR, etc.  I suppose these stocks need to catch up in valuation.  But something feels fishy, this is all a bit fast for me. 

and btw, this ASTI chart is a thing of beauty.  Coil after coil.  Barring major meltdown, I can see CSIQ and ASTI making SOLF-like parabolic moves..

Norsk-Hydro, a huge company in Norway has a large stake, in ASTI's technology.  They have another opportunity to buy more shares in the upcoming week or so.  That's why ASTI is up so much this year.  Plus it's only a $233 million market cap company.

Right now I think CSIQ and SOLF are finally getting the attention they deserve and are catching up to their fundamentals.  However the GOODENERGIES news today has been driving SOLF at parabolic rates the past few days.  I don't know anything about Goodenerngies...so you might want to check that out.

There will be a correction soon... with out a doubt...but the fundamentals should continue to drive these plays higher longer term.  Overall Solar has been "hot" all year.   The U.S. is behind in alternative energy while ASIA and Europe have taken the lead.  I believe the U.S. will have to catch up soon.  Take a look at FSLR SPWR and STP over the past year.  I obviously sold SOLF too early...so I don't want to tell you to sell or not sell it tomorrow if it gaps up early.

I really would like to see some other alternative energy plays such as wind, geothermal, hydrogen, nuclear ect. get some attention soon.  Keep a watch out for some of these other alternative energy plays.

Changewave Alert:
NEW RECOMMENDATION: ASCENT SOLAR (ASTI) -- Buy Under $20

Silicon-based photovoltaics are good and they will be here for a long time. And while silicon accounts for more than 90% of all solar cells manufactured today, thin-film photovoltaics are now rapidly moving out of the lab and into commercial production.

In Ascent Solar (ASTI), we have an opportunity to invest in the next big wave hitting the solar industry -- thin-film technology for solar cells, a market that's growing at an excess of 70% annually.
In one minute, the sun provides enough energy to supply the world's energy needs for one year. In one day, it provides more energy than the world's population could consume in 27 years. The sun's energy is free, and the supply is abundant. All we need to do is find a way to capture it.
Integrating flexible thin-film solar cells (as opposed to hard cells) into building integrated PVs (BIPV) and consumer electronics modules (EIPV) is coming to our world fast -- and this wave has just started. Imagine a building whose internal structure creates enough electrical power to run its lights and air conditioning.
Imagine a home generating enough electricity from its roof and windows to sell back to the power company on sunny days. Imagine military field equipment with the technology built inside to recharge batteries and supply enough electrical power to run off the battery on sunny days.

Ascent Solar has developed the technology and know-how to make BIPV and EIPV a reality beginning in 2008.

Integration: The Future of Solar Power

We tracked ASTI prior to its IPO, but we really took notice when Norway's Fortune 500 member, Norsk Hydro, made a $9.2-million investment in this tiny company, buying a 23% stake in ASTI.
In 2006, Ascent had spun out from ITN Energy Systems, a research-and-development company that works on government and private technology development, largely for the aerospace and defense industries. (Today, ITN still provides at cost, a variety of administrative services such as facilities management, equipment maintenance, human resources, procurement, information technology services and accounting).
Norsk is a very big building materials supplier in Europe and it took almost two years to review every private and public thin-film (i.e., non-silicon-based) PV technology worldwide.

Its conclusion?

ASTI's technology was head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the world, and it bought 23% of the company (with rights to raise its stake to 35% by buying another 1.5 million shares) because it saw such a bright future for BIPV and EIPV solar applications.

Here is what Norsk knows and what some our key Alliance members in the industry are telling us as well:

1) Building Integrated is one of the fastest-growing segments of the PV industry. When PV panels are integrated into a building during construction, the incremental costs of the system are reduced while the building owner is provided with tangible, cost-saving advantages such as significantly reduced demand for peak electricity, reduced transmission losses and a back-up power source.

2) BIPV best demonstrates the multi-functionality of PV. BIPV gives buildings the opportunity to become more self-sufficient by allowing them to generate their own electricity rather than merely consume energy. PV integrated into a building can, as a second function, also provides shade, insulation and helps to control the interior climate.

3) Thin-film PV modules are more suitable for BIPV. Crystalline silicon modules not only lack the aesthetic and physical properties required for BIPV installations, but their significantly higher cost per area makes them uneconomical for project managers.

4) In the developing world, BIPV installations are the most desirable. This is because BIPV doesn't use any extra space and because the material savings from replacing ordinary construction material with BIPV substantially reduces the cost of the installed PV system, and thus the cost of PV electricity.

Ascending Technology

Though a development stage company, Ascent appears to be the first firm out of the gate to manufacture large, roll format, PV modules in commercial quantities that use a highly efficient thin-film Copper-Indium-Gallium-diSelenide (CIGS) absorbing layer on a flexible high-temperature plastic substrate.

Ascent has produced and tested small-scale demonstration samples of their CIGS PV products at the laboratory level and for the Norsk people, but it has not yet produced any products in commercial quantities.

The company is dedicating most of the $14 million it netted from its July 2006 IPO and the subsequent $10 million from Norsk to establish a 1.5MW pilot-scale production line.

Clearly, Norsk is convinced that the ASTI production facility works -- and so are we. The production line is expected to begin operations in Q1 2008. Successful performance of the pilot production line should prove out the manufacturing processes, products and market acceptance to enable a transition into large, full-scale commercial manufacturing of BIPV and EIPV CIGS products.

Why thin-film instead of silicon solar cells?

Ascent's thin-film technology platform addresses many of the current silicon and thin-film limitations by offering a flexible, lightweight PV product suitable for terrestrial, space and near-space applications. ASTI manufactures its PV devices on the module level ("monolithic"), rather than at the cell level, thereby avoiding the expense-adding cell-to-cell interconnects used by silicon and other thin film PV device manufacturers.

Stepping Up

Ascent's shares have been on the ascent through most of 2007, but we think this is only the preliminary round. ASTI's market cap is still only $200 million, and this is rather modest for a company that is among the leaders in the next wave of PV technologies.

Solar energy will be one of the great growth markets of the coming decade and ASTI is easily one of the best small plays in the space. So brighten up your portfolio and initiate a position in ASTI for your Speculative Plays portfolio with a Buy Under of $20. The Strong Buy Under price is $14 and the Accumulate price is $22.

A friend of mine actually tipped me onto vestas wind energy.  He told me they control some huge portion of the market.  It is only traded on the pink sheets as an ADR, vwdry.pk.  I could not find much information and didn't really feel like looking much more at the time.  The company is based in Denmark.  Brief DD...they have 28% of wind energy sector.  No. 1 in modern energy they claim.

Thanks for the in depth reply.  Good trading lately, thanks for the tip on SOLF. . .

Vestas could be interesting but I don't like to be in the dark with my investments, which is generally the case with a .pk usually.  I suppose a little more in depth dd could expose all the needed information to make a decision.  Give her a whirl...

QuoteI am keeping eye on Google tip toeing in Alt. Energy sector. If you go through new Jobs at Google you will see that they are actually hiring in the sector, not just investing in handful of privately held startups. Idea of Google getting so much serious means you should get seroious too.

I think GOOG should remain focused in its own business, there's still a lot to do and grow in its area. But thanks for the info stocky.

QuoteI am not sure how the market will react to the US Energy Bill press murmers but if positive, watch Monday closing in the sector, you should be on board, especially ASTI which has  potential to be a multi bagger sooner then anyone of us in 3SoF community thinks.

Great call stocky, it seems the whole solar group has been moving up due to anticipation of that energy bill (not a good factor to move up, but ...).

QuoteFor sure I wont like it to be bought out by some growth hungry company.

I hope not. I don't think it will happen because Statoil Hydro will soon increase its stake to 35% and I don't see them selling their stake with the company still at such an early stage ... in my opinion ASTI has the potential to be a $10 B market cap company and sustain that value and keep growing from there (not like several of today's high fliers).

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 03, 2007, 10:08:08 AM
"...ASTI has the potential to be a 30 bagger..."

That's what I like to hear.  I bought ASTI today.  Thanks for the tip David.

Great timing buddjas1 Now make sure your hands are very strong (I know you usually have strong hands).

Thanks for bringing this analysis la-onda, it helps clarifying the public about ASTI's story. Just one thing wrong:

QuoteThe company is dedicating most of the $14 million it netted from its July 2006 IPO and the subsequent $10 million from Norsk to establish a 1.5MW pilot-scale production line.

The company has a lot more cash than this. In the 3rd quarter balance sheet it shows $42.5 M in cash and short term investments. And when the Warrants B are fully converted it will have $95.5 M more, that is, about $138 M in cash and short term investments, a lot more than the $24 M the analyst talks about.

This issue is what should make ASTI double from current levels, even without any news of production in early 2008. It will become clear when Statoil Hydro increases its stake to 35%, which is expected to happen this month.

I'll continue holding ASTI for the long term.

DJ UPDATE: US House Dems Unveil Energy Bill With $21B In Taxes

.
(Updates to add detail, background and comments)

   By Siobhan Hughes and Ian Talley
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--House Democrats are circulating plans to vote Wednesday on an energy bill that is more extensive than what passed the chamber in August and includes measures to raise $21 billion, in large part from repealing tax breaks for the biggest oil and gas companies.
But their plans may go beyond what the Senate can support, threatening to erode the coalition of senators that had passed an energy bill in June. Any energy bill is seen as needing at least 60 votes in the Senate to stave off a filibuster, the tactic of tying up Senate floor time by refusing to limit debate.
"We're going to have to deal with the harsh reality of needing to find 60 votes in the Senate and producing a bill that the president will sign, so it's a balancing act," Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, told reporters as he headed to a weekly policy lunch.
The Senate voted down an energy tax provision in its package passed earlier this year, and the White House Office of Management and Budget has said it would recommend that the chief executive veto the bill because it may impede the development of domestic oil and gas production at a time of supply constraints and rising commodity costs.
House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., began counting votes Tuesday, outlining details of the energy package and setting a 3 p.m. deadline for lawmakers to respond. The House is set to vote on the bill Wednesday. An exact time hasn't been set.
The energy bill would raise $13 billion alone from repealing tax breaks for oil and gas companies, according to Clyburn.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said the biggest oil companies - such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), and BP PLC (BP) - would lose tax breaks for domestic production.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said that while the administration could support a version of raising fuel economy standards, "in our view, a good energy bill would not establish a narrow, one-size-fits-all renewable portfolio standard, would not increase taxes, would not harm domestic oil and gas production - it should expand it."
Some states object to a nationwide renewable energy mandate because they argue not all states have the same renewable energy resources.
Rep. Ed Markey, chairman of the Select Committee On Energy Independence and Global Warming, said the tax funding would help pay for the renewable energy tax credits and fund an increase in fuel economy standards.
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, had earlier blocked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., from going to conference on the energy bill with the House to express their objections to tax measures that would affect oil and gas companies.
"The Democrats are walking away from what everyone thought would be a deal," Hutchison told reporters, echoing complaints of other top Republicans, who said they thought they had reached a deal that would mainly raise vehicle fuel-efficiency standards to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. While Republicans still support increased fuel-efficiency standards, they are increasingly opposed to some other measures.
Among the greatest sources of frustration: A measure that would require utilities to generate between 11% to 15% of their power from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, by 2020.
"I don't think we can require utilities to do the impossible," said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee. "I think too many people are tinkering with this bill. We had a good bill."
"I do not want to see a renewable electricity standard," said Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn. "That is a terrible idea. I am very disappointed with what I am hearing from the House."
Markey, a chief proponent of a renewable electricity standard, said he knew the bill was "in for a very tough, strong battle, but we're going to do our best to win it," including strong lobbying from some utilities such as Southern Co. (SO).
Markey pointed to the fact that similar renewable electricity standards have twice before passed in the Senate, "and we think the standard is something that should be embraceable by 60 votes in the Senate."
-By Siobhan Hughes and Ian Talley, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9285; [email protected]
-0

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2007 16:37 ET (21:37 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 37 PM EST 12-04-07

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That part about renewable energy standards is a positive for ASTI I would think.

ASTI mentioned in the WSJ this afternoon saying two insiders sold stock on Dec.3. Pretty big sell off for that?