3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on December 10, 2007, 09:50:17 AM

QuoteSome pompus clown on this MB was mentioning that FRPT shares swelled from 1 million to 61 million in seven years. I suggest he go back and learn that this company was started with an OTC shell and not even in the same business.

neonfreon2008, if you use this type of language again on this message board you'll be banned forever from it. What I wrote about the # of shares outstanding is an historical fact. I know FRPT comes from the OTCBB, I even recommended buying the stock when it was trading below $5 as I wrote "FRPT: a $1 B company in the making". La-onda knows about this.

Anyway, FRPT is going sharply down now and I know how losing money can make a man mad, but this can't be used as an excuse for disrespect. This isn't Yahoo MB, good luck with FRPT.

Welp, this stock can raise emotions out of people...I for one have a lot vested.  Looks as if you were right!  Good Call!!  16K shares at 11.46 average price with significant margin.  About 20 cents away from a big ole margin call!!

QuoteLooks as if you were right!  Good Call!!

Thanks, you're a gentleman

I just figured that if FRPT's management didn't have a problem in selling 60 million shares at prices ranging $1 - $5, they wouldn't have a problem in selling another 60 million in the $5 - $10 range, if the going got tough.

I say that a good part of the selling is being done by the company itself, as it dilutes shareholder's value, like it did in the past.

Anyway, FRPT is down 40% in just about a week or so, it should have a bounce ... even the seller doesn't want the stock to go down the way it's going.

Quote16K shares at 11.46 average price with significant margin.  About 20 cents away from a big ole margin call!!

You're talking about $183,360 invested in one single stock, that's a lot of money. Nobody should invest on margin, much less you with the amount of capital you have to invest. You shouldn't be so greedy, slowly works better.

Good luck

We're gonna see if it'll bounce here: gap got filled,returned to a previous 4th wave,HeadnShoulders target area,ABC from the top,40 week ma,oversold across several, if not all time frames..

The stock has seen a .786% fib. retrace of the whole entire move up from 2006 @.70 area to the top @ 31.

Chartist reality. There is a 10% chance this downtrend is supposed to happen by

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=FRPT#ttop

Probability - Excessive Down trend (1 month), not sustainable, occurs only 10% of the time, expect trend to turn sideways or higher.

The management reality has changed significantly in the last week. Total market is being adjusted downward from 15,000 vehicles. The army next must plan its reduction from 10000 of that 15000. EPS was based on 30% share of total market which has decreased pending official announcement.

So there is a possability that the second production plant which has yet to get a contract may not get one as the required number falls.

The good news of December contracts will only be for an increment of production beyond the present contracted through March. Meaning this business plan could end before the end of the year without reaching maximum or peak production estimates.

The expansion plan will be in negative cash flow if the December contracts are not large enough to provide operating and expansion cash after the first of the year. The rumored stock dilution and the beginning of this decline at the Q3 report where it was announced. Will the expansion pay for itself or be taken out of profits?

Going down for the third time. The Army weighs in for cutbacks and the Marines formally request their cut in vehicles from the JROC which has the final oversight.

Interim December contracts have been cut from 6500 to 3200. With Gates saying the cuts will be seen in March. Meaning they must complete their short term evaluation of current operational needs and get formal approval from JROC. The JROC also approved of the current 15000 vehicles.

So do we bet at picking the bottom and gamble on December contracts?

Or pick this back up at Penny Stock Picking?

Currently 5.80.

Capitulated volume but still no reversal candlestick

FRPT: Stanford Group Starts @ Sell; Sets Tgt @ $5; Analyst Notes
Wednesday, December 12, 2007 07:36ET

Issuer: Force Protection, Inc (NasdaqSC: FRPT)
Analyst Firm:  Stanford Group
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Sell
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $5.00
Analyst Comments: The firm expects the company will struggle to grow after 2008 due to its highly concentrated exposure to MRAP. They believe total MRAP demand is likely smaller than expected and that MRAP demand will peak in FY08.

"Although the company has delivered impressive growth over the last five years, we believe that Force Protection will struggle to grow after 2008 due to its highly concentrated exposure to mine resistant ambush protected (MRAP) program," Stanford analyst Josephine Millward said in a note. Millward expects total MRAP demand to be smaller than expected through 2009, and peak in fiscal 2008. The analyst expects Force Protection will "unlikely" meet consensus revenue and earnings expectations for 2008 because of "overly optimistic" expectations of fiscal 2008 demand and market-share potential. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, estimate 2008 earnings of $1.45 a share on revenue of $1.36 billion.

At Collins Stewart, analysts lowered their 12-month price target on the stock to $12 from $32, citing a changing outlook for demand.
"The Marines have indicated they want to order only 2,300 MRAPs down from its previous stated need for 3,700 vehicles," Collins Stewart analyst James McIlree said in a note to clients. "The Army has indicated it too may not need the 10,000 vehicles previously stated as its requirement."

Collins Stewart cut its 2008 revenue guidance to $1.19 billion from $1.5 billion, but raised its earnings forecast to $1.56 from $1.40 a share because of "efficiencies in the manufacturing process."

I have sold with 40% loss @ 8.9$ 

I hope MPK1970 is alright? I don't know his personal situation, but his exposure in FRPT is a lesson in risk management for everyone without a doubt.

FRPT :Might be setting up for bounce play : JMO as always
I have no position

Reversal in progress. 29% gain so far.

Message from the Chief Executive Officer, Force Protection Inc.


While it is generally not the policy of the Company to comment on rumors or speculation regarding the Company, we believe that we need to address significant misinformation about the Company and to update our shareholders on Force Protection's financial posture and dispel unfounded rumors amongst the shareholder base, the investment community, and elsewhere:

FINANCES
The Company's current cash position is strong with over $60 million in liquid assets, virtually no debt, and a significant capacity to access debt capital as necessary. Given our recent growth, the Company does routinely explore a variety of financial instruments that provide greater financial flexibility and have historically supported our growth as an enterprise. We believe our public disclosures of financial performance are evidence that these decisions have led to effective use of capital. We believe concerns about investments in the development of our next generation of product, the Cheetah, seem shortsighted. We believe that no other contractor in our industry develops vehicles faster, or makes more efficient use of capital in the related production ramp up, than Force Protection. Our record thus far supports that belief, and we intend to carry that record into the future.

MRAP RESPONSE
Let me also re-emphasize our commitment to urgent operational need requirements as issued by major ground commanders in Iraq/Afghanistan and contracted by the MRAP joint program office. Not only is this the most important program in the United States Department of Defense, it is a program that our vehicles helped create. As early as July 2003, we were delivering Buffalo mine-protected clearance vehicles to the Army Corps of Engineers in response to urgent needs in Afghanistan. Our Cougar vehicles have undergone four separate upgrades in protection levels since their first fielding in 2004. In total, they have saved tens of thousands of lives, which would have been lost to IEDs or landmines, in a lesser vehicle. They have not just been tested – they have been proven against a vicious and determined enemy. When United States tactical wheeled vehicle fleets showed a vulnerability to blast attack, these vehicles stopped the bleeding. Requirements will rise and fall by theater, month-to-month, but until MRAP vehicles are integrated into all service units in significant numbers, the attacks will persist. We have just begun to make an impact, not completed the task.

Some have also said that Force Protection is too dependent on one customer, but let's take a closer look at that "one customer." Within the DoD, we are servicing all of the individual services with MRAPs and the joint EOD Rapid Response vehicle; the Army Corps of Engineers is the principal consumer of Buffalo MPCVs, but the Marine Corps now owns several dozen as well. A robust spare parts and support business is delivered through the Defense Logistics Agency as well as through each of the separate services and our international customers. In short, we have multiple customers with demand for both our vehicles and our services to support and sustain the vehicles after delivery. Foreign military sales have also been sponsored by DoD and generated deliveries to the United Kingdom, Iraq, and Canada. We are optimistic regarding further foreign military sales orders.

FORCE DYNAMICS
We have a strong and effective joint venture with General Dynamics Land Systems, called Force Dynamics. This joint venture now produces more MRAP vehicles in one month (300 +) than Force Protection delivered in all of last year (2006: 296 total vehicles). Force Dynamics is the documented and recognized leader in MRAP deliveries of Category I and Category II vehicles, while Force Protection alone continues ahead of schedule on its sole-sourced Category III Buffalo deliveries. We are standing by for more orders, and we can still do more.

CHEETAH
We are confident that the attributes of our Cheetah vehicle are consistent with those cited by senior military officials who set the requirements for the next generation of tactical, wheeled, blast and ballistic protected vehicles. These qualities and features, along with the existence of an operating manufacturing facility to produce them, once again puts Force Protection in an excellent position going forward.

FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS - GLOBAL MARKETS
No other company offers the range of choices in weight class, configurations, or mission-specific attributes to the multiple customers purchasing MRAP-type vehicles. No other company has demonstrated the production capacity equal to the Force Protection, Inc.-led network of companies. No other company's products even come close to the battle record of protection of both Buffalo and Cougar. In my next message, I look forward to discussing how our newest production success, Cheetah, will address future demand for the vehicles of Force Protection.

Looks like shorts is covering their butts
Shares Outstanding5: 68.25M
Float: 65.91M
% Held by Insiders1: 21.52%
% Held by Institutions1: 61.10%
Shares Short (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 17.46M
Short Ratio (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 15.8
Short % of Float (as of 09-Nov-07)3: 26.10%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 16.77M

Pentagon Plans 3,000-MRAP Order

The Pentagon plans to order about 3,000 more Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles the week of Dec. 17, marking the largest MRAP order to date, Pentagon officials said.
The 3,000 will be split up among the three main MRAP vendors chosen by the U.S. Defense Department during the down-select process in October: Force Protection, Navistar International and BAE Systems.
The order will substantially add to the 8,800 MRAPs placed on order thus far by the Defense Department. Overall, the Joint Requirements Oversight Council has approved the purchase of 15,374 vehicles.
In an effort to rev up production capacity, Pentagon leaders have set the goal of producing up to 1,200 MRAPs per month by early 2008. However, November MRAP production was only 805 vehicles, more than 100 below the monthly goal.
One analyst said the next order could have been substantially larger had the production goal been met.
"Because production fell short last month, it is likely the Pentagon will only be able to immediately order the production of approximately 3,000 vehicles, at a pace of 1,000 per month," said Jim McAleese of McAleese and Associates, a national security law firm.
"If contractor production had been able to credibly achieve 1,100 to 1,200 a month, this could have resulted in an immediate order of up to 3,500 vehicles," McAleese said. "Secretary [John] Young [Pentagon acquisition chief] has been a powerful advocate for protecting those specific contractors who are aggressively meeting their monthly production quotas."

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3252363&C=america

Force Protection Shares Bounce...(FRPT)
30% on CEO Comments
Friday's session saw a selloff in the waning hours of the market
as investors continued to be timid following the rise in consumer
prices which could bolster the probability of a recession in the
coming months and also the chance of another interest rate cut
by the Fed at next month's meeting.
In the small cap space, one Cinderella story turned disaster released news which attempted to set
the record straight. Force Protection Inc. (FRPT) which saw shares reach highs in the $30's have
seen a steady decline following reports of the armed forces cutting back on their orders for the
Company's Mine Resistant Armed Vehicles (MRAP).
Army Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said in a statement to the military newspaper Stars and Stripes,
"The number of brigades will reduce in the coming months and that reduces the need for the original
higher number (MRAP's)."
The Defense Department had originally ordered some 15,000 vehicles, of which 10,000 were to be
supplied through efforts from Force Protection. The multitude of roadside bombs and mounting casualties
caused the Marines to ask for more MRAP's in 2005. The government and military proceeded
to meet that need and have since seen the fighting in Iraq subside causing the lowered demand in
the vehicles.
Following the report of decreased orders, shares of FRPT fell from $25 in October to their close of
$5.26 on Thursday. Friday saw shares gained some of that market share back following a message
on the Company's website.
In the message, CEO Gordon McGilton said, "While it is generally not the policy of the Company
to comment on rumors or speculation regarding the Company, we believe that we need to address
significant misinformation about the Company and to update our shareholders on Force Protection's
financial posture and dispel unfounded rumors amongst the shareholder base, the investment community,
and elsewhere."
"The Company's current cash position is strong with over $60 million in liquid assets, virtually no
debt, and a significant capacity to access debt capital as necessary," continued McGilton in the letter,
"Requirements will rise and fall by theater, month-to-month, but until MRAP vehicles are integrated
into all service units in significant numbers, the attacks will persist. We have just begun to make an
impact, not completed the task.
McGilton went on to say that the concerns about investments in the development of their next generation
product, Cheetah, were shortsighted.
"We are confident that the attributes of our Cheetah vehicle are consistent with those cited by senior
military officials who set the requirements for the next generation of tactical, wheeled, blast and
ballistic protected vehicles. These qualities and features, along with the existence of an operating
manufacturing facility to produce them, once again puts Force Protection in an excellent position going
forward," noted McGilton in the message.
Investors responded with a renewed sense of optimism as shares gained over 30% on 15 million
shares traded. But as McGilton noted, requirements will rise and fall by theater. With the Iraq Theater
coming into the twilight of its existence, will their products be in such high demand? Probably not, but
as McGilton also noted, MRAP vehicles have to be integrated into all services for proper preparation
of another war which is certain to come. With that in mind, investors would be wise to watch.