3SOF

QuoteAfter reading your post, I notice that you are going to use the TEMA indicator as a method  to build a mental stop following the SVA closing prise and sell if it goes below it!.
Am  I right?

Yes, you're right, I'm glad you found the explanation on the TEMA indicator 

We've had a doji on SVA, and that may mean the end of the pullback for these shares. The uptrend is still in place, the stock is trading above the 121 period tema so I will continue to hold the stock.

I like the fundamentals of Sinovac but have waited a bit to commit money.

I can however see that the stock is falling under decreasing volume so I think it is time to go in. I will therefore try to buy today.

Hi Michael,

What does your fundamental is telling you? Are you concerned about the inside selling?

I am in IDBE (a Canadian flu shot company) since $21. There are some discussions on SVA on that board.

I cannot come to an valuation of SVA. IDBE is going to have 75M doses capacity ($10/dose and 60% margin). So I can see IDBE being 750M sales and at least $2B company (i.e. 2x from here).

SVA seems will have 20M doeses capacity, but it's not clear to me how much they will sell it for ($10/dose will be very expensive in China). Assuming $5, we are looking at $100M revenue. Maybe still 2x from here. :-)


-Louis

Hi Louis,

Well try to look at the so-called insider selling. They have repeatedly filled their intention to sell during the last 12-month but never sold a single share (at least according to Smartmoney).

It seems to me like they are expecting a big increase in the share price (like a lot of us here  ) and keep filing their intentions so they can sell after the stock has taken off. I might be wrong and I wouldn't be surprised if they sell today (I have had a stream of bad predictions lately  )

I will write about the fundamentals a bit later. (I am busy doing some DD on RITA and BSM)

Mike

plz let us know mike, especially your take on RITA.

Hi Michael,

I see. Indeed on Yahoo there is no actual sales (just planned sales)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=SVA

Maybe I should take a closer look.

I am still in RITA. I missed BSM even though I was following it for the last 3 days. Let us know what your findings are. Thanks in advance.


-Louis

Hi Stocky,

I did a lot of research when BSM took off and one of the things I found was that the equipment they are using is similar to RITA's RF equipment (1500X).

Now 1500X is used under surgery for coagulation and ablation of soft tissue but it seems to me that it might also be used for BSM applications (precision-focused Radiofrequency for raising the temperature in cancerous tissue). I have tried to get a confirmation on this with out luck. I probably have to call the company!

Mike

Hello 

Michael, are you a biotech analyst? Or just a fan of the sector?

It seems you get much more interested in biotech and pharma companies than on other sectors companies (exception made to BRVO, which tells something about the value of that trade  )

Well, about SVA, this latest short term dip doesn't make any damage to the technical picture. We've had a technical breakout with volume above average and now a retest to the breakout zone with lower volume. Those are positive technical developments.

The ascending trendline for today stands at $2.78 and is rising $0.02 everyday. The stock doesn't need to go there to rebound, it may meet the trendline again higher than we are now.

Buying bullish breakouts is a wise strategy, but many times one suffers this short term pullbacks to the breakout zone. And sometimes, when it's all over, the breakout was false and we need to take a loss. But that's how to do it, trade on probabilities, and there's a high probability for a stock to continue moving higher for the medium term after a bullish breakout.

SVA is to stay on 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Michael, or anyone else.

Being that you seem to be a big timer in the fundamental area. Do  you have any good reccomendations for books on Fundamental Analysis? And at 21 im likely to be the youngest member of the board. Im looking to learn alot more over the next years, as i already have learned a great deal since being a member of this board over the past few months.
thanks for all your help.

Keep up the good work guys!

im also a holder of SVA bought at 3.65 hoping to see it make another rally.

-fousc

Great discussions were made in the last days about SVA and if this company is a bird flu shot or even not.
The vaccine market is enormous and the time to take a stockpick here can´t be better because the next months are the so called flu season.
I have a link for you if you´re interested in some fundamentals about SVA. It´s the 20-F/A from 9/1/2005.

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001127855%2D05%2D000572%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2005%5C09%5C01%5C&CoName=SINOVAC+BIOTECH+LTD&FormType=20%2DF%2FA&RcvdDate=9%2F1%2F2005&pdf=


nice weekend and best for your invest

Quote from: fousc on September 02, 2005, 11:19:40 AM
And at 21 im likely to be the youngest

18 here :-)

18 here :-)

Quote

crap i lose

Don't feel too bad, at 57 I am in competition for "oldest fart on the board." 

You lost already,I'm 60...No doubt there is someone 90...

Dont know about oldest Fart. But I just turned 66.  Loving every min of it