3SOF

SVA came down to touch the ascending trendline again and it made a bit of a comeback by the end of the session. I don't want to focus too much on the trendline here, I remember of setting up a plan based on the Tema indicator (triple exponential moving average - the explanation of the indicator is at the beginning of this thread).

I remember of clearly stating: «I have nothing else to weigh or consider. Just check if the close was above or below the 121 period tema indicator».

SVA = $4.23 > TEMA = $3.52 => HOLD SVA.

David,

Have you still been following bcon? Do yo think it is at the bottom?

Thanks,

bwaldo

Quote from: bwaldo on September 29, 2005, 07:25:13 AM
David,

Have you still been following bcon? Do yo think it is at the bottom?

Thanks,

bwaldo

Yes, I've been following BCON as I do will all 3 Stocks on Fire Previous picks (I check the charts everyday) looking for a possibility of a buy back. I don't know if BCON is at the bottom now, but I don't see any technical buy signal at this point. I will continue looking for it.

Good luck bwaldo 

Low volume day for a 1.65% rise on SVA. Fine by me. The stock is still trading above the Tema indicator (red line on the chart), so I'll continue holding it. The fundamental background is extremely bullish as you can read on the rest of this thread.

UN comments on Bird Flu Pandemic, with statements such as 'when the outbreak occurs, killing 150M people' NOT 'If it were to breakout'  These sort of headlines will no doubt add fuel to the likes of SVA and NVAX.

BBC News story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4292426.stm

Quote from: AussieTrader on September 30, 2005, 05:06:45 AM
UN comments on Bird Flu Pandemic, with statements such as 'when the outbreak occurs, killing 150M people' NOT 'If it were to breakout'  These sort of headlines will no doubt add fuel to the likes of SVA and NVAX.

I am sitting here in the middle of boxes enjoying SVA (The removal company said the move would take between 2 and 3 weeks and it took less than 1 week - Africa is really making a lot of progress!!!)

A couple of weeks ago I posted a message saying that SVA has a 9000% potential. Pretty aggressive target but I believe that SVA will surprise a lot of people.

We got mentioned at briefing.com today:

Quote09:37 SVA Sinovac Biotech: Play on $4 bln avian flu bill (4.38 +0.08)

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate approved $4 bln to fight bird flu by stocking up on anti-viral drugs and increasing global surveillance of the disease. Watch for potential interest on SVA, which received Anflu Flu Vaccine Production License from Chinese FDA in July. SVA is waiting for manufacturing plant approval to begin avian flu production.

We don't need much coverage like this before we trade in double digits.

I have a little backlog on answering messages. Please bear over with me. I really need to settle in and get acquainted to the nightlife in Maputo

Mike

Great day with SVA! Bravo to Bravo as well!

I think SVA can achieve profitability with its Hep-A/B vaccine alone. The only reason they haven't is because of the $4M+ stock option expense they had last year.

Now that the chinese bank is providing very low interest loans for AnFlu production gearing for the flu seaon (15-20M doses shortage in the coming one), and the chinese government is bankrolling Avian Flue R&D. This company should be the star (ok, co-start with AOB) of Chinese bio-tech in 2006.


-Valueseeker

Is it too late to buy SVA?  At what price would be okay?

Quote from: brandyjoco on October 02, 2005, 07:53:41 PM
Is it too late to buy SVA?  At what price would be okay?

Reading this entire thread I don't think, at all, that it is too late to buy SVA. A perfect technical buy point would be a fill at the ascending trendline (blue TL2 on the chart) which for today will be standing at $4.33 and rising $0.06 per trading day. But sometimes you need to buy at what price you can, or see the stock run away forever (or at least for a long time).

My plan is to hold SVA for as long as it closes above the tema indicator (red line on the chart), whatever happens on the fundamental side of the equation. The tema indicator for today stands at $3.64, so I will continue holding SVA on the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

(Michael, Maputo must be lovely, I wish you enjoy your new home I wonder if the city still has many Portuguese marks)

Hmmmm...... 3stocksonfire has finally been reduced to three stocks that really is on fire

I would have loved the name to be 5stocksonfire so you didn't have to sell AOB and VPHM.......

Quote from: David Randolph on October 03, 2005, 05:25:56 AM
...... sometimes you need to buy at what price you can, or see the stock run away forever (or at least for a long time).

Very true. I am not sure when this run will end. The potential is just amazing from a fundamental point of view. You have SARS and Bird Flu, which will (unfortunately) ensure media attention for the coming months and you have the low R&D cost and acquisition cost to add to the momentum.

I think that at the end of this year we will have three 3SOF picks with an absolutely amazing performance: VPHM, SVA and BRAVO! and I am going to hold all off them during good times and bad times

We do however have a few bubblers: DNDN could be very interesting if/when there are news on the FDA approval. It seems to me that they get a little closer everyday. AOB suffered under a little profit taking but fundamentally there is still at least 100% left for the patient investor (I am always sad when i see fellow members being taken out on stop loss!). I am not in MEMY but it looks like it could still run (haven't done my DD though!)

Quote from: David Randolph on October 03, 2005, 05:25:56 AM
(Michael, Maputo must be lovely, I wish you enjoy your new home I wonder if the city still has many Portuguese marks)

Hey you guys are running this place. I bloody have to learn portuguess just to pay for my beer. but except from that details it is really a paradise. I am spending most of my time in the pool (which unfortunately have reduced the frequency of my posting on 3SOF's).

Let me finish with the SVA chart. I love postings that finish with a beautiful picture:

Having a look at beautiful chart, I have to add one word of caution to those that are not invested (like me )  At the moment, SVA is heading into heavily overbought territory.  The RSI is significantly above 70, and while it could still go higher in the short term, I would expect that it will correct and pull back towards support soon - even with all the good news  surrounding it.  While RSI is not a perfect indicator, if you look historically, SVA has pulled pack a good bit when the RSI heads back below 70.

Personally, I am hoping it will do so, as I have watched this one from the sidelines and want to join the party, but I won't if it is chasing these kinds of highs.  As david said earlier, a better strategy is to hold off and wait for the pullback, its gotta happen sometime, though if one thing is for sure, it is that this one is going higher

I say buy early that way you catch the stock before its climb.
But what if the stock tanks your saying, right?
Set a tight stop loss and sit back and watch the stock go!
If it falls your stopped out for a small loss. If it rises adjust your stop loss as it goes up and start counting your profits!!!!

Great call on SVA by David. I bought it and it has performed excellently.

I will fly to Beijing, China next week for three months work assignment there.

Once settled down, I will visit SVA office in ZhongGuanCun park (BioTech park in Beijing), which is very close to my office - only few blocks (Software park).

Among 3Fire stocks, fundamentally sound stocks give me much better feeling to hold (can sleep well) than story stocks.

For story stocks, you have to keep close eyes on it all the time and quite nervous sometime to hold over night.

I may have difficulty to watch intraday chart in Beijing (12 hour difference) I cannot watch it whole night.

In that case, I may have to set stop-loss to protect potential big loss for high-risk high-return
momentum stocks. That means, my stop-loss stock may be taken by mm easily if mm see the stock could run up big.

I have such bad experience before. Or I may have to take smaller position on those stocks.

Earning season is here. Many stocks with good earnings will fly. Believe that David will give us more good picks.

QuoteI think that at the end of this year we will have three 3SOF picks with an absolutely amazing performance: VPHM, SVA and BRAVO! and I am going to hold all off them during good times and bad times

BRAVO? 

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 03, 2005, 03:49:58 PM
I would expect that it will correct and pull back towards support soon - even with all the good news  surrounding it.

I totally agree. SVA will also suffer from profit taking, as It happened with AOB. That is only a matter of time and how severe the profit taking will be. When I see a mail like yours it seems to me like a lot of people would like to buy into the stock so probably the profit taking will not be to serious. Concerning the timing I could be tomorrow but it could also be when the stock is 50% higher. (Making a reference to AOB: who would have predicted that profit taking would have happened at 5.9 back in June when the stock was trading close to 1?

As Ultra is saying it is always better to buy a stock before it climbs but for those of us who is not born clairvoyant we some times have to buy after the fact. I bought AOB after it had increased close to 2 and I bought VPHM after it had increased more than 200% both of these investments have worked for me with a return (after I have added several times to my initial holding) of combined 485%.

SVA has still only increased with around 100% (I bought a bit cheaper than David) so I am still optimistic (I am actually a bit disaapointed ).

Mike