3SOF

Ok, I will admit my fault ... I was WRONG about the anticipated large buy spike after lunch (it never happened ... my brief and last attempt at being a foretune teller)

But not too bad of a day for NVAX, right?   

I bought back at $3.47 and took profit around $3.70-$3.80 and bought back at $3.62 on Friday.

Today was crazy!!! I sold initially around $4.50 but what volatility!!! I bought again around $4.60's and sold around $4.80's and did 2 more buy/sell cycles and settled by buying at $4.75 then decided to hold it through tomorrow, regardless what it closed at (I know, it closed down to $4.55, but I am NOT complaining!!!) 

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.270#bot

With Bush's Avian Response Plan talk this morning (I posted Bush's transcript highlights on page 9  - 9th post down from top) and even more frenzy media coverage, I wanted to be "in" for the anticipated "gap up" open tomorrow.  Those that missed out on today's gain or those "just" finding out about NVAX may buy in tomorrow at "ANY PRICE" again.  That's why I didn't mind the $4.75 to $4.55 drop at close.  (my wife thinks I am nuts again) 

So, let's recap for today:

After gapping up $0.16 on open, NVAX closed up at $4.55 with $0.51 (12.62%) gain with 41 million shares traded!!!  Yes, of course, NVAX is still leader for the week and month volume gain with highest "Institutional ownership up last month."  Nice day!

Also, early morning and brief two "solid red" arrows were followed by many more "solid blue" arrows during the day.  You won't see the two red arrows now because Lycos I-watch is live "streaming" report and once the data scrolls to left, you won't see it.   

(=Note= This "simplified and literal" Lycos I-watch expression is in response to some who questioned my "interpretation" of the data on I-watch, please, form your own opinions)   

Well, I do have to mention this.  I had a lot of discussion yesterday and today about the anticipated "trend" of NVAX this week.  As David stated last week, due to extreme volatility of NVAX right now, NVAX IS NOT TRENDABLE for the near future!

No chart trend would have predicted the spiking gain of almost $1 today!  Most charts trends/technical analysis pointed to a retracement down, not a spike up!

So, I have responded to numerous emails and MB posts that we MUST take day by day with NVAX this week.  We are still in the tail end of a long run of "bearish" market trend and the volatility gain/loss of NVAX is heavily influenced by what is said about the Avian flu in the media/president Bush.  It may not matter that Novavax is releasing two new products in one week, if the news for Avian plays is bad.

If you read the Bush's transcript (see above link, 9th post from top), it REALLY sounds like the info the Novavax CEO has been presenting at last three conferences.  hmmmmmm 

Until we hear something definite from Novavax PR or from the government (NIH probably), NVAX is still a very "SPECULATIVE" stock that must be watched very carefully.  As the gains get larger, the risk of the stock taking a nose dive like $6 to $3.50 gets greater.

But for tonight, we celebrate again!  Go NVAX!!!

Hi 

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.285

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) Activities

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/

The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan will be released at 9:00 a.m., November 2, 2005

Here's President Bush's "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza"

http://www.whitehouse.gov/homeland/pandemic-influenza.html#section1

Quote from: defenderyou on November 01, 2005, 06:07:52 PM
Bought more NVAX at 4.42 this am and Sold all my NVAX at 4.9 and 4.92; have an order to get back in at 4.54, but may have to pay inthe 4.60s tomorrow, as I think this will retest the high 4.90s - but not convinced its getting though 5.0 without some real news. ALso, kept 50% of my SVA so its nice to see that come back. The one that frustrates me to no-end is HOM, which I own the most of. And I got crushed today on XMSR!

I like David's VLO - been a big fan of that for a long time but dont own any now. Looking to get in on the first major pullback to 100.

ANybody check out INB? today like I suggested?


Defenderyou

I think "real news" will be your worst enemy on this one.  The stock should have a "sell the news" reaction after having run up so much.  It's all hype.

Oh yes....Nice volume today, looks to be headed north again after the pullback.

Novavax Bond Holders Elect to Convert $6 Million of Outstanding Notes
PR Newswire (Thu, Oct 27) 
Novavax Common Stock at the per share conversion price of $5.68.
IMHO, sign of major upside to come with the price; with seasoned bond holders agreeable to convert at $5.68 share. Possibly beat earn est. next week.

Support @ $4.20...3.82...3.46
Resistance @ $5.53...5.77

Technicals
MACD is bullish
Close Above the 13-day EMA
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
23.91%above 13-day EMA
84.72%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 99 

Fundamentals
Earnings Expected on Nov 9

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $156.36 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/09/2005
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

I agree this should definately have a sell the news reaction, the run-up could be more than expected.  In my opinion we will see the 6-7's before it crashes since this is the leading flu play and the news won't be over for a little while

Are you forgetting about GBNT?  Several senators met with them a week ago to try to get them on the fast track too..I spoke to investor relations last week..In addition to bird flu, they also have spray insulin ready to come to market in Equador , and using their techology for bird flu is a recent development precipated at the request of the us govt!

Certainly like to know what anyone thinks about this company after doing their due diligence.

Thanks swerd96 for the link from Yahoo MB:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/11/20051101-7.html


Press Briefing on the Avian Flu by Dr. Rajeev Venkayya, Special Assistant to the President for Biological Defense Policy
Via Teleconference
1:45 P.M. EST

"DR. VENKAYYA: Thanks very much, Trent. Again, this is Rajeev Venkayya, from the Biodefense Directorate at the White House Homeland Security Council. Thanks for joining today. I'd like to give you a little bit of background on the President's announcement today, and link between the strategy that he announced and the budget submission that is going up in parallel, as well as the legislative language that's going over to the Hill to support the goals of the strategy.

We released today the national strategy for pandemic influenza, which represents a comprehensive approach that not only the U.S. government, but we expect that all levels of government, as well as the private sector, individuals and our international partners will follow in their efforts on the avian and pandemic influenza front. ....

....Turning, finally, to the Department of Health and Human Services. As you know from the discussion this morning there is, as I mentioned, about $6.6 billion there that is spread over vaccine, antivirals, surveillance activities, state and local preparedness, and general research and development. On the vaccine front, to accelerate cell culture technologies, we're looking at a $2.8 billion investment that includes accelerating the culture, as well as building out search capacity.

The reason that we're focusing on cell culture capacity here is because, to use the current technology, which the President, I think appropriately, described as old-fashioned, based in eggs and flocks of chickens, is that it's very difficult to have surge when you're talking about eggs. In other words, in order to ramp up production quickly, you've got to wait until you have a lot more chickens and eggs to do that. When you take that in conjunction with the fact that it takes a lot more vaccine to produce an immune response in a person than we see with the typical seasonal vaccine, you quickly realize that you would need a lot of chickens and a lot of eggs sitting around month after month after month, just waiting for us to use them to produce vaccine.

Cell culture technology, which is, we view, the next wave of technology that's going to come through the influenza vaccine industry -- I think the industry shares that view -- allows us to build out capacity, essentially vats that would be mothballed -- I shouldn't say, "mothballed" -- they would be used to produce other vaccines, but then when we needed them, they would be available to quickly divert to producing large quantities of vaccine. And that's what that $2.8 billion is for. ..."

Those interested in NVAX should also check out GNBT because GNBT has similar performance.

GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.

Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. 

Quote from: cingross on November 01, 2005, 09:48:01 PM
Are you forgetting about GBNT? Several senators met with them a week ago to try to get them on the fast track too..I spoke to investor relations last week..In addition to bird flu, they also have spray insulin ready to come to market in Equador , and using their techology for bird flu is a recent development precipated at the request of the us govt!

Certainly like to know what anyone thinks about this company after doing their due diligence.

I hold both GBNT and NVAX. Goto GBNT Thread and read. 

Quote from: [D] Investor on November 01, 2005, 10:22:05 PM
Those interested in NVAX should also check out GNBT because GNBT has similar performance.

GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.

Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. 

Applaud your work [D] Investor. I also checked out you link.

QuoteThe 3.72 portfolio i try to keep 1 year or longer. I hope i manage.

If you hold NVAX for one year from a $3.72 cost basis, you WILL lose money. I feel certain of that. Once the bird flu nonsense blows over it will return to previous levels. $3.72 was a nice entry for a shorter-term trade though. Don't shoot the messenger! And I could be wrong. Just think you'd do best to keep your eye on it daily. Good luck to you sir!

LukeQ

Thanks setravis for the applaud. 

Looks like I need quite a few more posts before I can qualify for the 3SOF Stock Picking Contest! 

Yes, bird flu stocks are hot. NVAX is a given.

GNBT is too...

GNBT, similar to NVAX, engages in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technology. It's product include the flu vaccine and currently has plans to seek Congresional support for the accelerated development of its a H5N1 avian influenza vaccine.

Check out my review of NVAX and GNBT here and let me know what you think. I currently hold GNBT. 

Buying Into Bird Flu Hype: Differentiating Between Stock Plays And Viable Companies
Wednesday, November 02, 2005 00:22 ET

Nov 2, 2005 (financialwire.net via COMTEX) -- (FinancialWire) (By Ant & Sons) Avian influenza, also known as bird flu, is a type of influenza virus that is hosted by birds. Current avian flu stocks include Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX), Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ: GNBT), Acacia Research Corporation (NASDAQ: ACTG) and CombiMatrix (NASDAQ: CBMX).

Avian influenza was first identified in Italy, and it is now known to exist worldwide. The current strain, which was initially found through birds in East Asia, has only infected humans who have been exposed to infected birds. Through the migration of birds, the strain could spread through other geographic regions and is expected to reach all continents. If the virus does become transmissible from human to human, it has the potential to cause a worldwide pandemic. Because of the strain's ability to be resistant, it is extremely tough to develop a viable vaccine.

Evaluating the current situation as of late shows that there is documented evidence of being insufficiently prepared for an avian flu outbreak. This is due in part to the United States' inability to mobilize an effort stockpile and develop vaccines more quickly. As this has become a viable threat, politicians and even President Bush have gotten into the act by stating their desires to initiate an effort to stockpile and develop vaccines just in case the country's fears are met. With an increased public awareness of avian flu, as well as increased media visibility, this has posed as an opportunity for many publicly traded companies to jump on the promotion bandwagon.

For example, smaller, lesser known companies such as Acacia Research Corporation and CombiMatrix have come into the foray by launching a new comprehensive influenza DNA microarray, as well as services for the typing of influenza strains. CombiMatrix's Influenza Microarray can detect and accurately type flu strains using a protocol that requires less than four hours start to finish. While this may demonstrate potential, the marketability and actual generation of revenue remains to be seen at this point.

Another instance of this is Generex Biotechnology Corporation, which partnered with the executives of Antigen Express, Inc. to present a proposal to senators to seek support for the accelerated development of its novel vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza. As of right now, there is no indication whatsoever to really determine if the meeting would benefit the company in any way.

The company that seems to be leading this group of avian flu plays, however, is Novavax Inc. Its shares have moved higher based on an agreement with Wave Biotech, LLC to collaborate on the development of a commercial scale production process for Novavax's pandemic avian flu vaccine.

Although the World Health Organization believes that current avian flu situation is in phase three of classifying it as a pandemic, there has been limited evidence of continued human-to-human transmission. When taking this into account, it is careful to note that even if these special products and vaccines for flu do prove to be successful, it might not necessarily translate into major revenue generators for these companies to become viable entities.

Just as an increase in demand and worries about global refining capacity drew heightened speculation in the oil market, increased fears and attention of avian flu have drawn intense speculation in certain biotechnology stocks. Coming to this realization will help investors determine that these companies may just turn out to be another investment of a highly speculative nature.

Ant & Sons LLC is an independent provider of investment commentary, research, news and analysis. Founded in 2003, the company produces a suite of free membership based services for use by professionals and individual investors. This includes monthly columns such as Face Off, The Real Deal, Takes a Look and Trader's Corner. Other services include a weekly newsletter and analytic news related services through Analyst Scorecard, Ahead of the Ticker, Chart of the Week and Word on the Street. More information about the company, which partners with FinancialWire, can be found at http://www.antandsons.com.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.b30ff227229054fb04a5d44596feff260e1161d060987e36ffde83ff4f2bdf1b