3SOF

keepsavi,

to further your point, as a trader I also do not wish for any avian flu breakout or global pandemic.  That would be horrific.  I am not an investor nor do I care really if this company ends up with the breakthrough cure, so long as someone does if this virus mutates.  But as a trader, the "threat" and media hype is great and necessary for us to profit.  It creates spectulation and market reaction.  Thats all we can ask for. 

BTW I just added a bit more at $4.02, average $3.86.  My stop sits just under the 13 day EMA.  I think this one is consolodating for another run to $6 by next week.

Hi,LIVELIFE
Thanks a lot for your wonderful work and the time you spend here!
Applaud!!!
I guess NVAX still have a chance to break out,just give him a little time.

News on the cure for bird flu - forget tamiflu!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051103/35739.html?.v=1

NVAX is a trading stock - Lood at the "SARS" related stocks from a year ago - where are they.

VICL has almost $3 cash per share.  Something to play with.  But I see support at about $5.20.  Who knows, maybe it will be big news again next week.

VPHM earnings on 11/7 btw

According to Hottinger's "E-Zone" Signals (http://www.hottingersignals.com/index.jsp -good site for entry and exit signals by the way) NVAX is in neutral zone at the moment - neither buy or sell.

I hope that will give us an idea of tomorrow's trading.

Good afternoon!!!    Wow, last night's catch up sleep was "wonderful"

I sold NVAX on gain from open at $4.20 (I bought back at $4.21 so a "tiny" loss  )  I bought HEB (one of 20-40 stocks I monitor) at $2.99 and sold at $3.20.

When I saw NVAX dip and I wasn't sure if HEB topped out for the day, I decided to split my position and bought 50/50 NVAX at $4.06 and HEB at $3.16.

So at close, my $0.28 gain from HEB was offset by -$0.16 loss by NVAX plus morning gain from HEB.  I tell you, daytrading is really "nerve wrecking!!!" 

That's why David Randolph "technically" trades "trendable" stocks...a lot more "calmer" trading!!!  BTW, David sent out his "BUY" alert for TRAD this morning and it had a nice gain of $0.79 (7.27%)!

Ok, let's recap.

NVAX closed at $3.90, down $0.09 with 8.4 million shares traded.  Another day of solid blue arrows at Lycos I-watch.  For longs, this is positive sign that Institutions/Money Mangers are continuing to accumulate with almost little or no selling.  Nice.  BTW, NVAX is still the highest "Institutional ownership up last month" and volume gain leader for week and month.

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NVAX&range=7&mgp=0&x=13&y=10&i=3&hdate=

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=Institutional%20Ownership%20Up%20Last%20Month

So, do you hold/sell/buy NVAX?  As I stated before, NVAX is "untrendable" right now due to "highly speculative" Avian virus issue.  As previous posts indicated, NVAX is a "dream" stock to day/swing trade right now due to its volatility.  I will watch the market open very closely for NVAX rebound (to take profit) and HEB profit taking sell off.

CEO will do another presentation on Monday, Nov 7th.  I hope he will announce the launch of two new products and some updates/news.

Be careful tomorrow!

Hi  (11th post from top)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg30452#msg30452

Good morning!!! 

Got more emails and discussions on whether NVAX will go up or go down...

Now that Bush's talk and Avian vaccine "speculation" contract talk is dying down, I will try to "trend" this stock, although I think NVAX may still not be "trendable."  If you look at the first Yahoo Technical Analysis chart with 50-10 day MA with volume, MACD and RSI, the blue oval still shows 10 MA (green line) above the 50 MA and HAS NOT started to dip down towards 50 MA (red line).  RSI (red oval) is still below the 70-80 (indicating stock is not overbought).  If the 10 MA begins to dip down towards 50 MA, then my recommendation would be to sell, and buy back on "true" rebound as 10 MA again moves up away from 50 MA.  For day/swing traders, continue to trade on volatility (NVAX has been "dream" stock to day/swing trade with  ).

I also pulled the weekly Lycos I-watch Institutional/Money Manager activity charts with percentage pie chart.  I tell you, it is very "rare" when Inst/Money Managers and probably hedge fund managers and large traders by now, are continuing to accumulate for weeks and more than a month!  This is certainly a good indication.  Remember that Inst/MM accumulated as NVAX went from $2 (yes, we did start from there...fond memories  ), $3, $4, $5 and even $5.50!!!  And of course, they continue to accumulate as we went from $6 to $3.50 and now we are at $3.90.

What do you think?  Did all the Institution/Money Managers make a BIG mistake with their millions of $$$?  Or do they anticipate NVAX gain back to $7-$8 mid-term with $10-$20 long-term sell targets?  Only time will tell, but I am very curious about the Inst/MM accumulation activity.  I mean, there are good stocks that are gaining in price like crazy, and Inst/MM ARE NOT buying!!!  What's with that?  Why are Inst/MM continuing to buy NVAX as we "retail" traders are popping TUMS!    Is there a "suppression" of price for them to continue accumulating?  Are we just being "anxious and nervous" of an extended price correction that was caused by the Bush/Avian contract "speculation?"

I am still "fascinated" by Novavax as a company.  Unlike many other Avian plays, Novavax has FDA approved, clinically proven, nationally distributed estrogen replacement therapy product, Estrasorb that uses "nano-particle technology" which allows small therapeutic dose administration than conventional oral (pill) administration.  Yes, even though it is suspended in a "moisturizing lotion" base, female patients report "positive" feedback for the estrogen effectiveness with the added bonus of "smoother" skin!  I mean, what's the downside of that?

Even though Bush/HHS Avian vaccine contracts to "many" vaccine companies, specifically NVAX has yet to happen midst of frenzy of Avian media coverage, Novavax IS launching two NEW products!!!  This is great news for Novavax and I am sure the CEO will drive this point home on Monday's conference presentation.

Also, there's been a lot of discussion about NVAX being cash poor and earning's report will be bad.  = TIME OUT =  If anyone actually heard and read the last three conference call/presentations, CEO made it very clear that Novavax is currently going through a "transition" with the new "management team - with really nice back ground and credentials" to reduce debt and increase revenue!  They "fired" King pharma who wasn't doing much for Novavax.  Novavax now has a new partner for Estrasorb distribution with Esprit and $2 million cash down payment is already in the bank with $10 million by end of December of $12.5 million deal!  They just raised $18 million by releasing 4+ million additional shares of NVAX.  Other companies do the same as what Novavax just did (remember that companies go public to raise capital to "grow and expand?").  Who knows, may be Novavax got a bunch of calls from Institutional/Money Managers complaining that there isn't enough shares to be bought for accumulation!  Hmmmmm..... perhaps.  So, Novavax releases 4+ million shares...WIN/WIN?? and temporary dilution related price drop, which helps the Inst/MM even more??  Am I in the "deep end" shoveling "brown stuff" here?  Think about it.

Well, I think, aside from the Avian vaccine development (which BTW, CEO states that Novavax has a "full solution" that is "best in class"), Novavax is doing all the right thing for a small company transitioning to a more profittable nano-biotech-pharma.  And yes, CEO is "actively" seeking government/corporate partnership/merger.  I think if Novavax is making itself more attractive by improving their balance sheet for a corporate merger/buyout, then they are doing even better job than other Avian plays.

We got not only the Avain bird and human vaccine development, but also SOLID product lines with FDA approvals and patents (good til 2015) and other nano-technology based products (10+ and growing!) with CEO "wanting" to be corporate merged/bought out!!!  Isthis why the Inst/MM's been accumulating like crazy?  Perhaps.  Only time will tell.

But, it's another trading day, and you all be careful!

Good trading!

Hi  (12th post from top or scroll to bottom)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg30565#msg30565

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=NVAX

The near term bottom was yesterday $3.90.

It's this simple, as long as NVAX continues to consolodate above the 13 day EMA ($3.84), this one is still a buy.  My opinion, grab anything sub $4 while you can because as long as Avian Flu is a media driver, NVAX will be a trader.  Add to that NVAX is well positioned to secure a NIH grant in the coming weeks or even a partnership with a large Biotech firm. 

All indicators have retraced nicely, a great sign that consolodation is almost done.  I've been adding anytime I can sub $4.  The chart shows this one will go again soon.

I think NVAX earnings are on the 8th of this month, saw it on yahoo earnings.

I cashed out of NVAX and HEB (for now  ) and bought SANM at $4.25 this morning.

I will buy back once solid rebound signs show trendable activity for Avian plays.

Here's the link to 3SOF SANM MB.  I'll check with NVAX and post my info, from time to time.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3453.new#new

Trader567:

I never re-entered NVAX although is it gets back to 3.50 area I might change my mind. Last trade was sold all 11600 shares at 4.90 and 4.92 - thanks for the advice in any case

Defenderyou

Looks like it's time to get in again.....

It's highly speculative. However seems like a good LT stock. I've been learning my lesson on buying too early...because most of the time...i've been losing. I would wait to see if it breaks the $4.15 mark. It seems like it's a symetrical triangle ready to burst. But could burst negative. I'd watch it and wait. Some of the 'good' news hasn't really played this stock up lately. do u're DD