3SOF

LOL ya the worst is selling 2 hours after david puts the word out weither its directly or indirectly related. 

Hey ULTRA, who is talking about increasing the # of shares?  where did this come from?  how did 3 sof do a 180 on this so fast? 

Quote from: FALCON64 on December 22, 2005, 12:47:03 PM
Anybody have any ideas on how 4800  investers can exit a stock on the same day and not hurt themselves in the process. There is no doubt in my mind the Bravo's drop today is Randolph-inspired . If you still have this stock I think you should hold it for at least a little longer and let the stampede thru.

Haa haa.  The stock was down over 10% at one point but I doubt if everyone had made their exit.  If they did I am sure it will be down significantly more than that.  I think us folks here at 3SOF has got to have BRVO management' attention.

Quote from: puenthouse on December 22, 2005, 02:22:40 PM

Hey ULTRA, who is talking about increasing the # of shares?  where did this come from?  how did 3 sof do a 180 on this so fast? 

Read Page 65 of this thread - Fill_the_Gap conversation with the CFO:

Quote* This is my best effort to relay information from the call.  Please understand that many items are subject to interpretation. 

-  The CFO confirmed that after costs, BRVO gets 18.9 million from the 20.25 million equity financing.

-  8 institutions were involved with the financing after over 30 were interviewed.

-  The CFO seemed certain that 85 % of the investors were to be long term.  And he is guessing that the remaining are also long term holders.  He explained that Roy and management interviewed many investors to try and get a group that would invest for the long term.  (that said, they can change their mind and sell BRVO shares, but they apparently told management they will allow the growth story to develop).

-  BRVO lost (.04) cents per diluted share last quarter
This equates to nearly 5 million dollars
Back out the Non Recurring Finder's Fee to CCE of 3 million and Jeff confirmed that BRVO is losing around 2 million per quarter.

-  The 6-7 million projection for this quarter could not be directly commented on except that we will know more on the January call.
   
-  The tone of the call was such that the 70-100 million revenue mark for 2006 is a best case scenario.  The CEO, Roy, may be overly optimistic.  He wants to be honest and give a forecast that involves all of the irons in the fire working out.  Roy does not want to sandbag a forecast.  * This surprises me considering his brokerage background because it sets up for a disappointment to offset exponential growth.  So they may have to narrow the forecast.

On the other hand, others involved with the company may wish to underpromise and overdeliver.  It was discussed that any revenue increase will be exponential.  But shooting for 70-100 million and hitting say, 50 million would disappoint expectations (even though this is amazing growth on growth !)  Jeff obviously would not give me direct numbers even though I asked for them multiple times.  He said that forecast is in the process of being evaluated.  He said this will all be discussed at the January meeting.  It did seem to me that the 70-100 million will be scaled back to a more realistic goal.

Jeff understands that events can surface that are out of BRVO's control.  Take the hurricanes for instance.  And Jasper equipment may not always work at full capacity.  So a buffer is recommended for any projection.  And it does not seem that any buffer is in place at this time.

-  My personal opinion from the call is that the 6-7 million for this quarter will not hit.  And the 70-100 million forecast is very steep considering the evaluation of all the notes.  I bet they guide down to be more realistic moving forward.  I expressed the concern of missing by 20% like the past quarters.  He understood that management needs a track record of delivering to build investor confidence.

-  Next CC will probably be mid to late January.  A press release will come out announcing the event sometime in January.

Don-  I specifically asked your question.  " What is management budgeting as a gross profit margin for CCE revenues?"

-  Jeff explained that CCE places pressure on the margins.  So the margins will shrink going through CCE rather than selling directly to say Sam's.  He went on to say that it will be made up in the following categories.

A.  BRVO saves close to a dime on average in trucking fees.
Simply put, they can send it to one location (CCE)
Paying for a platt delivery here and there is what gets expensive.

B.  No Brokers are involved in going through CCE, saving approximately 4 % brokerage commission.

C.  CCE pays the slotting fees.  So BRVO is now saving the amount paid to grocers for shelf space, etc.  CCE covers the cost and also has much better exposure for the products.

-  80% of the total volume for BRVO is CCE.

-  Margins are set in stone and will be evaluated (1) year from August.

-  At the end of the day, margins will shrink, but BRVO will come out the same or a little ahead on the savings addressed above to the bottom line.

-  The question that I posed was why CCE went from a deal that would give them 51 % ownership and controlling interest in BRVO to ultimately much less ? Jeff explained that Coke does not want any bottlers to own brands and that BRVO is glad it worked out this way.

-  Jeff mentioned they have people in place to try and get the suppliers cost down.

-  BRVO has to cover 10% of the total cost for the production with Jasper
Jasper will spend 50 million on a take or pay contract ramping up for production.

-  The Dairy Farmers of America (COOP) owns 45 % of Jasper and 12 % of BRVO.

-  Pertaining to Capacity

A.  Jasper is slated to get to 7.5 million in April.  The machines are in place but FDA approval is needed as well as down lines. 

B.  BRVO is controlling shipment locations.  They understand that running out of product where there is a demand is not a valid model.  For instance, not all Sam's have the product.  It will be increased as production elevates on a controlled basis.

C.  Jeff said he has not seen the data on reorders yet to make any comments.

BW- pertaining to your question about marketing and deals

1.  We discussed the idea of getting into schools.  He said the Marvel drinks would not be the product.  It would be the Milky Way. etc. as they are much healthier.  Jeff said they have made progress in the school arena but did not have any figures or time table to share.

2.  CCE and BRVO are working on a vending bottle for January.  CCE wants to ramp this up significantly first of the year to roll out a substantial amount of vending machines.

David's Questions

1.  Do you expect to expand to continental Europe in 2006

-  We will make an effort to expand to Europe.  But the Eurpean changes in CCE leadership may delay this a little.  It will be more realistic to assume 2007.

2.  Catalyst Research says 2006 EPS 10 cents. Can this be confirmed.  This would be an earnings multiple of 6, very hard because CCE puts pressure on margins.

-  Jeff said he is not aware of the Catalyst Research estimate.  He also said that we will get a better picture of the number during the January call.

3.  Do you plan to ask shareholders to increase from 300 million shares

-  Jeff did not directly answer the question.  However, he said it will be considered in order to secure future deals. 

4.  Do you expect positive net income in 2006

-  Yes, positive without the amortization.

I hope this contributes to the board.  Thank you for those that forwarded questions to ask. 

We will know more in January.

-Jeff-

Quote from: David Randolph on December 22, 2005, 12:36:19 PM
Maybe you're right bigdogs99999 and I respect your opinion. And certainly I'm not the right person to write bearish things about BRVO.OB, so I won't.

It's been a pleasure bigdogs, I hope you're right and BRVO is the shining star you're looking for.

David,
I much respect your skills and the honesty you display on this board.  I neither recommend nor disparage BRVO as an investment.  Long-term I like it - but it has risks like all investments.
Remember that the great gains in a stock come after holding a good stock for several years.  If you buy BRVO or anything else at 50 cents and it succeeds and hits $5 in 4/5 years, it only takes 10% and then less per year for one to double each year one's original investment.  Put differently, I am 44 years old.  If I buy $5000 worth at 50 cents and it is $5 in six years, I have $50,000 worth.  If it grows at 10% until I retire at age 65 (15 more years), it will be over $200,000.  Opportunities like Bravo are rarities ... you took all the information and filtered it and decided to punt something that you think will probably be a 10 bagger over the next few years.  That is not consistent with a stock that you are holding "for the long term." 

What I would encourage for you David, in running this investment service, is to decide on what sort of focus you want to have, and stick with it.  I started to write after the pennies board was discontinued.  Stocks "on fire" because of momentum is a different investment philosophy than great fundamental stories or value plays that one buys and holds "for the long term."  If you buy stocks and recommend those stocks for the long term, and then routinely sell all of them days or weeks later, you do yourself a disservice (because you are not trusting yourself) and your subscribers/readers a disservice (some more than others - I view recommendations like a**holes, everyone has one ).  Perhaps you want to stick to short term and momentum investing - that is great.  Or you could make a decision that you want to provide advice on long term holdings and create a separate list.  There is some good fundamentalists who post (Michael comes to mind here).  That is great too.  But mixing apples and oranges in philosophies and advice is not the best way to advise others. 

Personally, I encourage two lists - momentum and fundamentals.  Your readers - especially me - could well benefit.

Dave   

Hey puenthouse here's a quote from David:

QuoteI'm afraid the reasons I gave to sell (almost 300 million shares outstanding and probably the company asking permission to increase the number of authorized shares, lower than expected revenues, no profits) can take BRVO.OB down to $0.25-$0.30 by mid 1st quarter 2006. We'll see. I hope not.

With so many shares outstanding already I just do not want to here the CFO or any other BRVO management personel saying that their even thinking of asking shareholders to increase shares. That is the basis of my comments and that is why I sold. Too many shares, how much can the share price go up?

Big Dogg:

David's primary goal is the portfolio return, and as such the preservation of capital.

I'll agree that a long term hold portfolio would have different trading guidelines, but in either case the upcoming hit BRVO will take is going to be big (IMO)

Read what Jeff (Fill_the_Gap) wrote here:

QuoteThe tone of the call was such that the 70-100 million revenue mark for 2006 is a best case scenario.  The CEO, Roy, may be overly optimistic.

When announced, this will create a huge credability issue given the previous guideance misses. Combine that with pending dillution, it's going to be very difficult for BRVO share price to bounce back from. There's so much distrust of penny stocks, it will take a long time to recover to the .50 + level.

Looking objectively, unless your long term is purely speculation, would you want to hold a company facing this?

Good Luck to you, whatever your decision.

Scott

KC,
Thanks ... I understand David's decision and cannot say that I disagree with it given that  Iview the portfolio as a very short term trading portfolio.  I am evaluating all the info and may join the sell group here and try to buy back in in a couple of months ... it is so hard to predict with these pennies that I am uncomfortable trading them ...  My suggestion is either to abandon the false notion that any of the picks are meant to be held for "the long term," or create a separate portfolio of long term picks that accomodates that idea.  I hated to see the demise of the penny stock board, and I feel that happened in part because David became frustrated with a bad pick and decision to ignore his own trading rules on EYII.  Everyone picks losers and makes mistakes.   In that debacle, I was one of the first to say (about HYRF) that once you get misinformation from a company, it is time to move on ... and though no intent seems to accompany the BRVO informatioin, if they do lower guidance significantly along with missing out on revenue targets, a big sell off might occur!  Perhaps I should heed my own trading rules!     So your note of caution is something I am paying attention to (and applauding you for). 

Tax loss selling may be furious this week and BRVO is one that has taken some major swings this year.  I would be cautious this week if I were still a holder.

Recent Research Report:
26-Dec-2005   Pechala's Reports   Frantisek Pechala   BRAVO FOODS INTL CP (BRVO=US) 12-months forecast
If anyone has seen this, please post? - I have not.....(it is a subscription service). Don.

Don-

Pechala reports are not really a research report.

They are a pdf. file that you can download for 15$ US a pop and are little more than a computer generated guess using their formula.

Haven't seen Bravo's but don't think it will give you any real insight into the stock.

I sold Bravo and took quite a large loss, luckily I live on my boat so if I jumped out the window I would just wet.

I sold Bravo and took quite a large loss, luckily I live on my boat so if I jumped out the window I would just wet
That is a marvellous combination of true grit and humour. Applaud!
Would you miind to share the reasons why you sold out of your position in total? tia, Don.

QuoteQuote
The tone of the call was such that the 70-100 million revenue mark for 2006 is a best case scenario.  The CEO, Roy, may be overly optimistic.

What I really don't like is why would the CEO over estimate revenues when he could have said just about any number under the 70-100 million and the growth would still have been exponential! Now you have growing revenues but you still underestimate so it's conceived as bad news. Imo the CEO screwed it all up with that bold predicition of 70-100 million in revenues.

Also the large number of putstanding shares and the possibilty of increasing these shares is horrible news for BRVO. I sold last week and I'm very reluctant to get into pennys again. I stopped trading them in the past and started again with David's recomendations, but not again.

I think its better to trade and make judegement on facts and not opinions or interpretations.

Fact 1: Shares outstanding 150M, not 300m.

Fact 2: Possible outstanding shares might grow to 300m.

Fact 3: Working capital of 20M (minus costs and CCE fee) about 15M.

Net loss was about 1,2M. So I can't see a reason why they would ask for more authorized shares.
Maybe in 3-4 months, yes, for example for a new production machine. But that's the only reason imo.

Fact 4: The company didn't tell (not even implied) anything about NOT getting 70M-100M. That's just Jeff's interpretation of a telephone conversation. I don't say that he's wrong, but what if Warren anounces revenues of 85M? Will you buy or sell? I found Jeff's information very useful, but I don't think that an interpretation is enough to sell my shres of this promising stock. (but like David I don't like a lot of outstanding shares, but we've still haven't reached the 300M).

Greetings to you all and a happy newyear!

Most of our deciesions I think are based on facts and only a few on assumptions but they are assumptions that are backed by real concerns. Here are the quotes:

Quote«Our Independent Auditors Have Expressed Substantial Doubt About Our Ability to
Continue As a Going Concern, Which May Hinder Our Ability to Obtain Future
Financing.»

- «As of December 7, 2005, we had 181,753,751 shares of common stock issued
and outstanding and convertible debentures outstanding that may be converted
into an estimated 31,329,273 shares of common stock at below market prices,
convertible prefered outstanding that may be converted into an estimated
8,047,038 shares of common stock at below market prices outstanding warrants to
purchase 64,291,697 shares of common stock and options to purchase 11,958,459
shares of common stock. All of the shares, including all of the shares issuable
upon conversion of the debentures and upon exercise of our warrants, may be sold
pursuant to a currently effective registration statement or pursuant to Rule
144. The sale of these shares may adversely affect the market price of our
common stock.»

This means that on a fully diluted basis, the number of outstanding shares is 181,753,751+31,329,273+8,047,038+64,291,697+11,958,459 = 297,380,218  Shocked

No wonder the CFO said the following when fill_the_gap asked:

Quote
3.  Do you plan to ask shareholders to increase from 300 million shares authorized?

-  Jeff did not directly answer the question.  However, he said it will be considered in order to secure future deals.

With 297,380,218 shares outstanding if all derivatives are converted, the market cap is 297,380,218*$0.577 = $171,588,385

And probably management is already thinking about asking shareholders to increase the number of shares authorized, because they're at their limit. This was one of the pre-conditions I set to continue holding the stock for the long term, that they don't ask shareholders to increase the number of authorized shares  Cry

These numbers (shares)are just too big for bravo to grow, imo. This shows that the management team at Bravo is too willing to dilute further which means they care little about the investor/buyer.

jmo

Quote from: don on December 29, 2005, 11:47:05 AM

I sold Bravo and took quite a large loss, luckily I live on my boat so if I jumped out the window I would just wet
That is a marvellous combination of true grot and humour. Applaud!
Would you miind to share the reasons why you sold out of your position in total? tia, Don.

Don

My reason for selling was simple. I allowed a profit to turn into a loss, with the real possibility of larger loss.

I should have sold my entire position (.63 average) at breakeven. I could have re-entered the stock at anytime in the future without sustaining a loss. The chart was saying sell and I allowed my optimism to overcome the rules I have set for myself.

I entered Bravo in the .26 area and have been in and out several times for a good profit (55%). I treat each trade as if I never heard of the stock before and on this trade I took a 15% loss. Overall I still have a profit although not nearly as much as it could have been. I still think the Bravo story is a good one and after seeing the numbers I may re enter. If the story is true there will be plenty of entry points for this stock in the future.

I think Bravo will have more surprises in the future, good and bad. This is a penny stock and it must be traded that way, some may buy and hold for years watching their paper losses or gains ebb and flow, I choose to trade it.

Good luck to all here whatever your trading style!!