3SOF

Melf Elf,

what do you make of the action so far today...looks alittle bit indecisive to me...but all indicators are still bullish...higher highs and higher lows so far today...vol. is very good

thoughts?? 

Quote from: vic666 on April 07, 2006, 10:54:08 AM
Melf Elf,

what do you make of the action so far today...looks alittle bit indecisive to me...but all indicators are still bullish...higher highs and higher lows so far today...vol. is very good

thoughts?? 

Vic,

I don't make too much of it.  ALTI ran to 4.19 early, then topped with the NASDAQ.  I would like to have seen the 3.97-3.98 breakout area hold as support, but it looks okay, especially given the down market today.

BTW, I'm using the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle as my stop.  Today, it's at 3.467, just below this week's 3.50 low, prior to the pattern breakout.  The trendline rises 0.0107 per day.

EDIT: It would be nice to see a weekly close today at 3.97-3.98, or better.

thanks for the response...am at work, cannot follow the charts as closely as if I were at home after 5.00 pm 

applauds to you for the response.

Quote from: vic666 on April 07, 2006, 11:42:19 AM
thanks for the response...am at work, cannot follow the charts as closely as if I were at home after 5.00 pm 

Vic,

In that case, we won't make you wait until you get home from work.  Here's the morning trading, minute by exciting minute.

   

you are awesome Melf....so many layoffs anounced at my workplace this morning...your post made me smile for the first time today. thanks again! 

so boring to note ALTI do a whole lotta NOTHING!!! 

I have a total of 6K shares averaged at $3.98.

wish me luck...it's Friday!!! yipppeeee...

Anyone have additional thoughts on ALTI's action today.  I bought in this afternoon after it seemed to recover from the 3.9's and seemed back on it's way up above 4 for good.  I bought in on the (confirmed?) ascending triangle breakout.  I am a little dissapointed it didn't continue up - but often after a breakout a stock will re-test the breakout line.  If it holds, then will proceed up with the breakout.

Any thoughts on ALTI's breakout strength and support levels?

Thanks,
Jason

PS  Go NXXI!

Quote from: vic666 on April 07, 2006, 04:15:19 PM
so boring to note ALTI do a whole lotta NOTHING!!! 

Vic,

Stocks "know" when we buy them.  As soon as we do, they do NOTHING.  Or, tank. 

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I have a total of 6K shares averaged at $3.98.

ALTI had a bullish DOUBLE breakout on January 17, on huge volume.  From December 28 to February 2, the stock rallied 106%.  After a rally like that, it's good for it to consolidate before continuing higher (Ascending Triangle...continuation pattern).

We're supposed to BUY breakouts of those patterns.  We got a breakout, and you're in at the top of the pattern.   You've got a good entry.   Now, plan where you're going to put your stop in case we've got a false breakout, and plan where you intend to take profits.

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wish me luck...it's Friday!!! yipppeeee...

And, with a little bit of luck, the trade will work out.  GOOD LUCK!! 

Quote from: mitchjas on April 07, 2006, 11:19:19 PM
I bought in on the (confirmed?) ascending triangle breakout.

Jason,

The breakout was confirmed by the close above the pattern on Thursday, which put our upside target IN PLAY.

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I am a little dissapointed it didn't continue up

Me, too.  Let me find that sad face up on the toolbar.   

Friday's close back inside the pattern puts the upside target ON HOLD, and if we go back below the Ascending Triangle, the upside target is CANCELLED.  Where's that angry face?

   

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- but often after a breakout a stock will re-test the breakout line

Yes, or re-test something else inside the pattern, which we'll discuss.

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If it holds, then will proceed up with the breakout.

Yep.  If we get above 3.98, our upside target will be back IN PLAY.

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Any thoughts on ALTI's breakout strength and support levels?

The breakout strength was almost too good.  I said to Boatguy on Thursday morning that I'd like to see near-term resistance at 3.79 get taken out, and then the top of the pattern at 3.97-3.98 get taken out.  I didn't mean all in one day!

The volume on Thursday was 3 times average (100 day), which was fine.  But, often when we take out TWO resistance levels that quickly, it gets "called back" for a re-test.   Given the Inverted Hangman that we got on Friday, it's looking likely that we're going to re-test the breakout above 3.79, to see if "former resistance now is  support."

The highs in the final week of March were 3.79...3.78..3.76...3.79...

We weren't able to knock that out.  So, the stock went down and tested the ascending line.
We got lows of 3.50...3.50...3.52...3.50...

A little Rectangle pattern there: 3.50-3.79.  The top of that pattern, or near the top,  "should be" support now, on a re-test.  If we go much below 3.79, I would consider that real sloppy action, technically, and would be a bit concerned (we need a face on the toolbar with the guy biting his fingernails).

If we go back to the low of the Rectangle pattern at 3.50 (it was support on March 29, March 30 and April 4), we also would be back to where our ascending trendline comes in next week.   That would go beyond sloppy technical action.  We would be in danger of having the Ascending Triangle pattern INVALIDATED, if we break that ascending trendline.

A break of the ascending line would require us to look shocked, confused and hurt, that Ms. Market would abuse us so cruelly.

     

The ascending line (stop loss) data points for next week are:

April 10 - 3.479
April 11 - 3.490
April 12 - 3.500
April 13 - 3.511

Melf Elf,

Great analysis!  Thanks for your thorough thoughts (say that 3 times fast) 

Would a failed breakout be considered when the pps drops back below the top line of the triangle, and therefore back into the triangle - causing a sell?  Or would a failed breakout be if the pps drops back down through the top and then also down through the bottom ascending line of the triangle? 

If the answer is the first option, then is it generally ok to still hold your position and wait a little longer for the real breakout to occur?   

Thanks for any additional input.

Jason

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Re: Liquid Stick List
« Reply #42 on: April 06, 2006, 12:24:31 AM »

I want to own ALTI right now.

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Re: Liquid Stick List
« Reply #55 on: April 07, 2006, 12:45:32 PM »

Who can tell me why ALTI stopped at 4.19 and reversed.  I'll give to the winner 10 applauds.

LS

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Come find the answer on the Liquid Stick Thread

Quote from: mitchjas on April 08, 2006, 03:35:45 PM
Melf Elf,

Great analysis!  Thanks for your thorough thoughts (say that 3 times fast) 

Jason,

Thnak through throats..thnak through throats...thnak through throats 

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Would a failed breakout be considered when the pps drops back below the top line of the triangle, and therefore back into the triangle - causing a sell?

No.  The breakout becomes "suspect," and the upside target no longer is IN PLAY.  The target goes ON HOLD until the stock breaks out again.  During the time that the stock is back below the breakout, and thus, "suspect," we have to try to determine if its something more than that, i.e. an impending failure.  I'll give you an example of that below, using Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

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Or would a failed breakout be if the pps drops back down through the top and then also down through the bottom ascending line of the triangle?

Yes.  That's confirmation that the breakout was a failure. Again, we'll look at CHK (below).

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If the answer is the first option, then is it generally ok to still hold your position and wait a little longer for the real breakout to occur?   

Coming back inside the pattern doesn't necessariy mean that the breakout will end up a failure, so it's okay to "hold your position and wait a little while longer for the real breakout to occur", as you suggest.   But, personally, I'm not real patient sitting around with a stock that has fallen back below a breakout.

"Successful trades usually work out right from the start (or close to it)"

"Be patient with your winners.  Be very impatient with your losers."

Let's look at CHK now. 

It had an Ascending Triangle breakout on January 30.  On January 31, nice upside follow-thru!   February 1, a Bearish Engulfing pattern that reversed the prior day's bullish candlestick, and the stock closed back below the breakout. 

Curses!  (We need a face on the toolbar that obviously is shouting obscenities, but our sensitivities aren't offended because we can't actually hear anything untoward).

Look at the next 3 sessions, the low of which was 33.17, where I have the red Stop sign.  CHK tried to get back above the breakout, but on the fourth day, that failed, and CHK took out that 33.17 low.  (more inaudible shouting of obscenites).

As we can see from the subsequent action, selling the break of that 33.17 low was a very good exit.  CHK later broke below the Ascending Triangle pattern, and then tanked to 27.75.  YUK.

Anecdotally, look at what CHK is doing in the current time-frame.  It's doing it again!!. 

CHK broke out of another Ascending Triangle on March 29, and as of Friday's close, it's flirting with breaking below the ascending line of that pattern.  Very irritating.  Very irritating!!

     

Thanks Melf Elf!

Everything you said makes sense to me.  I applaud your creative "face" requests!   

I'm currently trading NXXI and ALTI.

Do you have any "favorites" or closely watching any triangles forming that you could suggest to me?  I seem to have the most success with these.

Thanks,
Jason

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 08, 2006, 05:29:56 PM
I'll give you an example of that below, using Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

Let's look at CHK now. 

Melf Elf...excellent analogy as always using CHK...

But one thing I'd like to suggest on your chart usage is this - the analysis would be more complete, or should I say...your charts would be more complete giving us a truer pciture...if they showed the volume too....sometimes, false price breakout patterns can be explained well with an accompanying volume action....low volume price breakouts are more often than not, false breakouts.

and in that regard, I think ALTI did have a true breakout on Thursday on large volume...

anyways...good night now! 

Quote from: mitchjas on April 08, 2006, 05:42:57 PM
Do you have any "favorites" or closely watching any triangles forming that you could suggest to me?  I seem to have the most success with these.

Jason,

Check the Ascending Triangle folder on the Technical Analysis Board.  Several members post some nice charts there.  Also, check the ALGN folder on this board. 

Quote from: vic666 on April 08, 2006, 09:57:53 PM

Melf Elf...excellent analogy as always using CHK...

But one thing I'd like to suggest on your chart usage is this - the analysis would be more complete, or should I say...your charts would be more complete giving us a truer pciture...if they showed the volume too....sometimes, false price breakout patterns can be explained well with an accompanying volume action....low volume price breakouts are more often than not, false breakouts.

Vic,

Thanks for the good suggestion, and you make a very good point about volume.   Applause.  CHK didn't have good volume on either breakout.  The chart still intrigues me, though.  Lots of patterns.

Unfortunately, if I show volume, I have to show you all of the "title bars" from the any other indicators that I'm looking at, and it makes it next to impossible to see the chart and read any annotations.   If I close the other indictors (hit the "X"), I lose the indicators, and I also lose all of the work that I've done on them.  I can manually "remove title bar" from each indictor and then "reinstate it" later, but it's time-consuming to do that, just to show a chart. 

Below is an example of what you'd see if I show you volume, without closing other windows (and losing them), and without manually moving all of the annotations on the chart so that you can read them.

My apologies.

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and in that regard, I think ALTI did have a true breakout on Thursday on large volume...

Yes, it would seem so.  We'll see.  Because I can't show volume (without having the title bar problem),  I try to mention volume in the text of my post, like ALTI breaking out on 3 times average daily volume (100 day) on Thursday.

Yesterday, we discussed:

1. Breakouts that are "suspect," when the stock closes back below the breakout.

2. Where support is in ALTI:

a. The top of the Rectangle, at 3.79
b. The ascending line, at rought 3.48-3.50 for the coming week.

3. Being impatient with losers.

Take a look at CEM (chart below).  It had a Symmetrical Triangle breakout.  Volume wasn't good, but it headed toward the target that was IN PLAY.

On September 16, however, CEM closed back inside the Symmetrical Triangle.  'We have a problem, Houston."

On Septermber 19, however, CEM found support, smack on the ascending line of the triangle. so "all is well," and we're not stopped out.