3SOF

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 23, 2006, 04:07:09 PM
The Symmetrical Triangle breakout at 1.52 put a target of 1.61 IN PLAY.  High on the day: 1.60 (22,000 shares, right at the closing bell). 

I would have preferred a neckline at 1.56, but it's a nice day for GNBT, up 13½%.

Math for the Symmetrical Triangle:

High: 1.56
Low: 1.47

1.56 - 1.47 = 0.09 added to the 1.52 breakout...1.52 + 0.09 = Target: 1.61

Wow, today was seriously my lucky day with GNBT pulling back up to close near HOD at 1.59.   That gives me a classic Rising Three Methods candlesticks, and I have had good luck with those in the past.

And if that werent enough for a lucky day, I swallowed 3 times then jumped into ACTC when it was already up 100% and then made 100% in about 1.5 hours on half my shares, will just ride the other half of my free shares for awhile. 

Sure needed this after I got into GV yesterday at 1.25 and lost 10% the same day, and other recent debacles like CHID etc.  Its nice to have this kind of day when you were just starting to think that nothing you can do is going to work, lol.

Thanks for the analysis as always Melf, applaud  , it would be kind of lonely in this thread without you!    You will have to keep me sane on GNBT as I am probably a bit giddy right now, lol. 

Quote from: tokyopua on August 23, 2006, 04:16:45 PM
Sure needed this after I got into GV yesterday at 1.25 and lost 10% the same day, and other recent debacles like CHID etc.  Its nice to have this kind of day when you were just starting to think that nothing you can do is going to work, lol.

tokyopua,

We've ALL had days like that, when NOTHING works.   

Quote
Thanks for the analysis as always Melf, applaud  , it would be kind of lonely in this thread without you!    You will have to keep me sane on GNBT as I am probably a bit giddy right now, lol. 

My pleasure, and applaud back at you for calling GNBT to my attention the other day.  I owe you one.



Initially, as you will remember, I wasn't that hot on it, but then I liked the successful re-test of the pattern breakout, at 1.33.  Still didn't buy it, though.

I bought the "buy pivot" today, on the print of 1.43, above the recent highs, and sold half within minutes at 1.55, near our 1.56, for a quick 8.4% gain on that half.

Normally, I wouldn't post that "after the fact," because I do a lot of intraday pattern trading, and  it doesn't help anyone, and it looks more like a "brag" than anything else.   I post it T2T, by way of saying "thanks."  I appreciate it.

Since we don't have the 1.56 neckline for an Inverse H&S Bottom, GNBT looks "committed" on the upside.  If it's an upside fakeout, then I'll sell the remaining half postion at/near a break even.

The 200 DMA is at 1.7204 as of today's close.  I might be tempted to sell near there, if we get it.  I'll try to post if I do, as timely as possible.

Good luck!  Glad things are going well for you today, especially in a down market.  We both know that it doesn't always work out that way.  Enjoy it, my friend!

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 23, 2006, 06:09:18 PM
The 200 DMA is at 1.7204 as of today's close.  I might be tempted to sell near there, if we get it.  I'll try to post if I do, as timely as possible.

tokyopua,

Sold my remaining ½ position at 1.71.  Gain: 19.6%.  Gain on the entire trade: 14%.

THANK YOU and applause.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 24, 2006, 10:04:45 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 23, 2006, 06:09:18 PM
The 200 DMA is at 1.7204 as of today's close.  I might be tempted to sell near there, if we get it.  I'll try to post if I do, as timely as possible.

tokyopua,

Sold my remaining ½ position at 1.71.  Gain: 19.6%.  Gain on the entire trade: 14%.

THANK YOU and applause.

Melf,

Glad this went well for you!  I am always amazed at the precision of your analysis and the accuracy and discipline you use in making targets and honoring stops.  I am going to be paying more attention to your posts from now on

Also, do you have any book recommendations? 

Accumulation remains persistent.  A stock to watch!
Watch for higher lows for sign of trend reversal.

Volume: 5,329,851
Avg Vol (3m): 2,743,050

Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
17.03%above 13-day EMA
8.64%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 68 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $138.88 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

tokyopua,

Another nice day for GNBT. 

Constructively Bullish Factors:

1. Although volume isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, it has picked up considerably on this two-month pattern breakout.

2. The top of the Kumo (Cloud) came in yesterday at 1.735.  The high on the day was 1.76, so GNBT got through there intraday for the first time since its more than 50% decline from the early May Bear Flag pattern break.  The Kumo (Cloud) also has narrowed considerably. 

3. MACD is ready to go up through zero. 

4. The 34RSI thrusted above it's shadow, the 55 RSI, also for the first time since May.  I'll post that chart next.

Quote from: tokyopua on August 24, 2006, 10:20:31 PM
[Also, do you have any book recommendations? 

I like Martin Pring:

Technical Analysis Explained

Martin Pring On Market Momentum

Quote
Glad this went well for you! 

Thanks!  I'm glad that the trade is going well for you, too! 

34 RSI thrust above its shadow, the 55 RSI.

DOUBLE Bullish divergence in the MACD.

The first one resulted in a rally from the 1.47 close, to 2.03.

Thus far on this one, we've got a rally from the 1.28 close, to 1.76.

Melf, thanks much for the book recommendations and analysis.  I will add those books to my Amazon to-buy list.  Probably have to actually finish the many other books I bought first, lol.

GNBT having a hard time last 2 session in that it keeps getting rejected right at the 50sma...

Stopped out at 1.6, should have sold with Melf above 1.7!  Still, a good trade so far, might get back in later 

Quote from: tokyopua on September 01, 2006, 10:27:15 AM
Stopped out at 1.6, should have sold with Melf above 1.7!  Still, a good trade so far, might get back in later 

Back in this morning at 1.41 

Quote from: tokyopua on September 13, 2006, 02:07:08 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on September 01, 2006, 10:27:15 AM
Stopped out at 1.6, should have sold with Melf above 1.7!  Still, a good trade so far, might get back in later 

Back in this morning at 1.41 

GNBT up 9%, out with news:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060918/0163836.html

They are selling an oral glucose spray in the US to help manage diabetes.  This diabetes market is where they have been making their money recently, but I keep wondering if their bird flu related vaccine tech will make them run again at any point like it did last year because of bird flu.  Anybody know anything about that?

up 20 % ...Generex shares rise on Glucose RapidSpray deal

...Id

This one has gotten some good volume lately..........

Torc Investments and Research Initiates Coverage of Generex Biotechnology With a Buy Rating and 12-Month Price Target of $3.00-$3.50
Market Wire - September 27, 2006 9:36 AM ET
   

Related Quotes
Symbol   Last Chg
GNBT Trade 1.75 +0.15
Real time quote.
 
Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NASDAQ: GNBT) announced today that Torc Investments and Research LLC, a NASD registered broker-dealer, initiated research coverage of the Company today with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $3-$3.50.

The Report, issued by Director of Research Amanda McNamara, noted that, "The company's main product is centered on diabetes, a very lucrative and growing market where it is estimated that 350 million people worldwide will be affected by 2025 (up from 230 million currently). According to the International Diabetes Federation, every 10 seconds a person dies from diabetes-related causes where it is the fourth leading cause of death by disease globally. Many of these complications can be avoided if the disease is treated early on and diabetics were more compliant in treating their disease. As more user-friendly delivery devices for insulin enter the marketplace to replace needles, compliance should increase significantly. But such alternative delivery methods for insulin have their own setbacks...A very viable solution to such issues rests with insulin mouth sprays where insulin is delivered through the mouth and avoids the lungs."

The Report noted that, "Generex Oral-lyn is a mouth spray that allows for incremental dosing and comes in a convenient pump similar in size to a common asthma pump versus competitive inhaled insulin products that are bulky. This product is available for sale in Ecuador, a key introductory market to build momentum and brand awareness despite its small size...Although Generex has multiple products in its pipeline, the true driver of sales will stem from the success of Generex Oral-lyn. Highlighting this fact for valuation purposes, we are comparing and discounting Generex's market capitalization to MannKind Corp. since both companies target the alternative insulin delivery market and both are reliant on one main product to significantly drive sales."

The Report concluded that, "We believe a fair price target range for Generex Biotechnology Corporation over the next 12 months is $3.00 to $3.50, equating the market capitalization of GNBT to $330 million - $385 million (using an estimated average number of shares outstanding of 110 million for fiscal 2007 for GNBT). This range is less than half of MannKind's current market capitalization of $921 million but is not unreasonable due to the comparison of targeted markets. MannKind's product (Technosphere Insulin), although roughly 3 1/2 years away from possibly receiving FDA approval, targets the U.S. market that consists of approximately 23 million diabetics (20-79 age group) versus Generex's current targeted markets for Generex Oral-lyn (Mexico, Canada and Andean countries) that have approximately 18.6 million diabetics combined (same age group). Valuations applied to Generex also recognize the valuable work being done at the company's Antigen Express subsidiary as it moves forward into drug development and away from strictly working in the laboratory for various cancers."

"We are pleased that an independent research firm has recognized the value of our portfolio of products," said Anna Gluskin, President and Chief Executive Officer of Generex Biotechnology. "We believe that there exists great potential for Oral-lyn and look forward to further demonstrating our unique ability to orally deliver insulin through additional clinical activities and by entering new markets."

The entire report is available at www.torcinvestments.com.

About Torc Investments and Research LLC

Torc Investments & Research LLC is a NASD registered broker-dealer offers a multitude of specialized services. The firm acts as an introducing broker to Merrill Lynch for hedge funds, institutional and high net worth retail accounts. It offers execution services through TradeSpeed technology which provides clients with direct market access with an emphasis on celerity. The company's research department provides in-depth, fundamental research analysis for equities with its core focus on the micro-cap and small-cap sector. Industry experience, coupled with superb technology and customer service, allow TORC Investments & Research to offer their clients advantageous and valuable resources in the financial sector.

About Generex

Generex is engaged in the research and development of drug delivery systems and technologies. Generex has developed a proprietary platform technology for the delivery of drugs into the human body through the oral cavity (with no deposit in the lungs). The Company's proprietary liquid formulations allow drugs typically administered by injection to be absorbed into the body by the lining of the inner mouth using the Company's proprietary RapidMist(TM) device. The Company's flagship product, oral insulin (Generex Oral-lyn(TM)), which is available for sale in Ecuador for the treatment of patients with Type-1 and Type-2 diabetes, is in various stages of clinical trials around the world. For more information, visit the Generex Web site at www.generex.com.