3SOF

I believe there are tons of better choices in this market. I would avoid this stock. Good luck.

People are getting tired of GNBT's  PR-a-day approach to stay afloat. GNBT's executives pay themselves huge amounts for a company that does not have a marketable product in the US. I believe the CEO makes like $2M/year?!!!!!

Their claim to fame is insulin spray that no one in a developed country wants to hear about. They talk about selling the product in Ecuador one of the poorest countries in the world.....the percapita income there is so low that it would cover only one week of Oralyn usage. Only a handful of drug dealers might be able to afford Oralyn treament.  Besides, Oralyn only replaces the before meal insulin shots.....diabetics must still have to take two other heavy insulin doses using injections.


Oh yeah...and they are milking the bird flue scare like no other company and they still don't even have a proven drug candidate for this ailment.

GNBT's chart would be an ideal chart for Elf  to draw his little pump and dump arrows on it. I believe GNBT's brass print shares like there is no tomorrow ...they hype the stock with almost daily fluff PRs....and sell their shares into any rally.

Nice charts from noizeguru.  I am very impressed with his insight.

LiveLife (I think was his name) used to post for us at Yahoo and update us on his 3SOS charts and analysis.

Anyway, some following the company may be interested in the DD we store and discuss about Generex and Antigen Express.

Check it out, it may be of help, and you may have a viewpoint to add to our discussion.  It may aid you as you watch the charts, and want to factor in upcoming events or company related news.

http://www.digitaltradz.com/index.php?board=4.0

Best wishes to noizegure and you all.

RJS

noize please feel free to post a chart or add whatever you like.  You would certainly give us a thrill.

The trading of Generex looked precisely as I expected today.   

Consult the following image.

This is a cropped snapshot of the 60-day chart showing some technicals that have been adapted, modified, and tormented by yours truly. In other words, I've been inspired to draft, craft, and author these technicals which are not yet published, and as a result, they might be considered Frankenstein TA for the time being. "But do they work?" You ask. Yes. Yes they do.

Consult the chart and note:



Compare PPS-A and PPS-B.  Note that PPS-A travels through the resistance bands (upper price chart, purple circle) but wants to retrace back toward the top of the bands naturally. Had GENEREX shown some insight and refrained from releasing their PR pre-market the morning or 12-14-06, we might have seen a clean upward market, and the PPS might have moved completely out of this range and upward by now. Unfortunately, with a heavily manipulated stock like GNBT, pre-market gaps really aren't to an investor's advantage unless all the props are set and ready to be triggered into motion, so GENEREX actually hurt their investors with that pre-market PR. Had they waited three hours before releasing that PR, the move would have painted a different picture entirely, and instead of fear being painted into the mindset of the investor (watching the PPS sink after good news), greed might have set itself in motion causing a short squeeze,  and there would have been no gap to fill.. However, that being said, all will be well in the end, as cause and effect are at play here at the end of the year.

Notice that today's trading (PPS-B) through the resistance bands isn't quite as extreme or outside the bands themselves as it was at PPS-A This is very bullish especially when correlated with the other TA.

In the upper TA window you will see a circle labeled CROSS # 1.  Cross #1 is a pre-signal, in other words, it signals that the bottom is coming soon and that one should stay on their toes.  The lower TA window shows CROSS # 2. When there is a converging cross in that window, and the PPS is enveloped or below the lower resistance band, and the yellow oscillators are high and outside the TA window's purple MA bands, then the stock is a BUY. 

Now, why did the PPS fall after that pre-market news announcement you ask?  Simple. The PPS awoke (opened) OUTSIDE the technical bounds, and traders (like you) faded the gap. It's cause and effect.. The cause was the poor timing on the PR, the effect was a fade, which fostered the secondary effect of market fear, dumping, more manipulation and yet more panic EOY tax loss selling. The company erroneously empowered the naked short.

With all that said, we look at the here and now, and we see that cause and effect has resulted in an EOY present being placed at the very feet of any retail short or small investor AWAKE enough to realize it. Look at the lower TA window in my chart... see the yellow line almost touching the very top of the chart correlated to PPS-B? The yellow line is an Inverse Transform Oscillator that clocks on Moving Averages if you will, and rarely does it get so high in a chart as this, but when it does, one gets break outs like that 120% move XSNX made not so long ago, or like the move SIGA made a few trading days ago. As soon as that yellow line moves sideways and touches the purple MA envelope, the stock will blow up. The end result you ask?  A robust, alarming, and explosive move to the upside. I'll let you look at the chart and see if you can't guess when that will happen.

I hope this helps and isn't excessively confusing! As always, these are simply the opinions of a simple man on a simple budget. Please exercise your OWN judgment and do your own DD and analysis.

This one is a 60-day linear regression and Standard Deviation study.  You'll need to scroll the chart sideways to see the right edge.. Need I explain what TA like this leads to in a few hours/days? 

This chart is a longer timeframe -- two years.

The light blue lines indicate "top of market" when they coincide with the top of the chart. The DARK blue TA line indicates "last chance to exit with money", once it hits the top of the TA chart.

Conversly, the purple TA line indicates "best low buying in oppertunity" when it shows up in the top of the chart.

The YELLOW line (where we are today) indicates "LAST FREEKIN' CHANCE TO GET ANY BEFORE IT EXPLODES NORTH!" when it shows up in the top of the TA chart.

This analysis shows the Pro-Go indicator, which reveals the behind the scenes interest of investors. The key focal point here is to spot early positive divergences in the blue line that oppose the movement of the price (the yellow bars) to spot forthcoming breakouts before they happen.

For instance, look at the time period of December 2005.  Notice that the PPS is falling, yet there is a positive divergence of the blue line. Eventually, the game is up and investor interest can no longer be masked, and the price makes a very healthy uptrend.

The same holds true for the time period of late August through early September 2006. The price hits a bottom, retraces some, yet the blue line starts running to the upside. Soon the price moves up and investors get nearly a 120% return in less than two months.  Now look at where we are today. See the positive divergence in the blue line relative to the price? A breakout is imminent, and given all of the other technical set-ups, I think it will be a big one.

The sweetest part of this chart is the green trend line that I have drawn in for you. Notice the blue line divergences relative to the price touching the green trend line and how the price always bounces off of it. Finally, notice the pink line. When both the blue and pink lines cross above the white ~0~ line, there results a serious up-trend. (Evident in late September '06)

As everyone can see, as of the market close on Friday, December 29, 2006, the blue line is ABOVE the white ~0~ line and positively divergent, the pink line is just a hairs breadth below the ~0~ line and ready to cross above, and the price rests exactly on the green trend line at $1.56, my earlier prediction point derived from multiple technical indicators.  It appears to me that we have some powerful technical combinations in play with GNBT, and that they all point to a powerful upside breakout happening in the very near future. This is my genuine and honest opinion.

The moment may soon be upon us.

Positive divergences and a cross in technicals everyone is familiar with.

The RSI, and Stochastics.

The stochastic TA is the lower window -- see the cross right on the cusp now.

Last week GNBT had it's 4th bounce off longer term support.  Weekly indicators are starting to bottom but there hasn't been much talk of bird flu to get the bird flu stocks going yet.  Good risk/reward ratio here with a stop just below the ascending trendline and a target at the descending line at the top of the symmetrical triangle.

It's going to run. The Bird flu has spread in Indonesia, Chinese starting to take tolls.

News will soon be here from GNBT's synthetic vaccine. Being try ed at the moment.

Which by the way does not need to be re produced due to any mutation.

It's all good.

Hi. 

Here's an excerpt from the message I sent to rjs9787:

"As to GNBT, many have fallen in love with this stock and I have cautioned people in the past not to fall in love with any stock they trade with - that will make you subjective and not objective.

As to GNBT technicals (refer to chart) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
RSI touched back down to 30 with MACD turning to positive territory in January.  If you use my swing trading template, you should have sold in mid October 2006 as RSI hit 70+ and bought back as RSI bottomed in January 2007."

Take care and trade well.

Hey Livelife, welcome back man! 

Hi  Terliso and thanks

Terliso I sent you a message.

GNBT closed Friday right at the 61.8% fib retracement level on slightly above average volume.  It continues to gain strength but there is heavy resistance above by it's moving averages on both the daily and weekly charts.  On the weekly chart, STOs have crossed and the RSI and MACD continue to strenghen.  There was one news report on bird flu this week (that I heard) that really had no effect on any of the bird flu plays.  Could use a pickup in volume on the weekly chart.

I see another GNBT thread has become active.  Could we have a merger, please?

Quote from: basonista on January 14, 2007, 08:14:05 AM
GNBT closed Friday right at the 61.8% fib retracement level on slightly above average volume.

Basonista,

Thanks for the analysis.  Applause.

GNBT also closed Friday near the top of a Bullish Falling Wedge.  Friday's high was 1.85.  A technical breakout for Tuesday, January 16, is 1.85.

Quote
It continues to gain strength but there is heavy resistance above by it's moving averages on both the daily and weekly charts.

Right.  They're at 1.92 and 1.93 in the daily chart.

On your Fibonacci retracement, the rule of thumb is that a stock shouldn't retrace more than 61.8% of a rally.   I've seen some analysts use the more obscure .764 and .786 (I think) retracements, but I tend to like the 61.8%.  That's a lot of giveback, and any more than that doesn't look too bullish to me.

 

GNBT made a big mistake, not holding the 61.8% retracement level, near the 1.76-1.77  top of the Ascending Triangle breakout from late summer.  Or, not holding at 1.85, the low of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in red).

1.77 was the target IN PLAY from the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown  (pattern in red) in late November, and it would have looked very, very good if that target had MADE, and if GNBT held right there on that re-test.

Instead, GNBT broke that support, and broke the .618% retracement, and dug itself into a bit of a hole when it went down to 1.70 in December. 

That put it wrong-footed, technically.  All of what "could have been" support, now became resistance, and GNBT was badly positioned, or "wrong-footed," to respond well to any good news.

Quote
There was one news report on bird flu this week (that I heard) that really had no effect on any of the bird flu plays.  Could use a pickup in volume on the weekly chart.

There was "good news," the morning of December 14.  GNBT was called higher, up about 20% in pre-market, through all of these levels of resistance:

1. 1.76-1.77

2. 1.85, on up (the Symmetrical Triangle (in red), nearby price resistance

3. 2.01 - the 200DMA

4. 2.07 - the 50DMA

5. 2.12 - the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in green)

I think GNBT traded at the 2.12 in pre-market, but the high of that December 14 UGLY "Gap To Crap" only was 2.07, at the 50DMA.

Sorry for the lengthy explanation of that "Gap To Crap" on what looked like "good news," but I used to have an awful time trying to understand how a stock could gap up 20%, then not only give it all back, but go into a dead drop, and tank 26% to a new low, at 1.53!

   

Technically, those "jam jobs," through mulitple levels of resistance, often end up as "Gaps To Crap."  Sort of like a failed coup d' etat.  The Bulls didn't have enough muscle to overcome all of The Bears, standing at 1.76-1.77 resistance, and on up into the 2.00s.

From that perspective, the failure makes a little more sense.

In the current time-frame, GNBT has had a nice little rally off the 1.53 low, but that was pretty much a "gimme."  Not much resistance between 1.53 and 1.76 - 1.77, which is where GNBT gets into the thick of resistance.   Friday's close was 1.80.

What helps GNBT here, is that Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in green) breakout possibility.  If it can take that out, and get above the 50/200DMAs at 1.92-1.93, and above the Kumo (Cloud) resistance, it could have another nice rally.

I'll post the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart next, to illustrate that Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

Quote
I see another GNBT thread has become active.  Could we have a merger, please?

Unfortunately, we can't merge them because if GNBT ever becomes a 3SOF Pick again, this folder will go to the Members Board, so we need to keep the GNBT folder on the Stock Picking Board active, in case anyone wants to discuss it while it's a 3SOF Pick.

What I do, is if a stock ever has been a 3SOF Pick (run the Search on this Board first, to check), I always try to post in the folder on this Previous Picks Board so that all of my posts are in one place, and also so I can review the history.